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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1741
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    I do hope the Scoir Mear fans stayed faithful Monday and follow him through to Irish grand national especially if going soft.

  2. #1742
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Newbury 2.50 Dan Emmett 25/1 - Ran well in a much stronger race l/t/o in first time blinkers and given a good chance dropped another 5lb by h'capper to 114. Hasn't run in this low a grade for over 3 years when finishing 2nd off 120.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  4. #1743
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Newbury 2.50 Dan Emmett 25/1 - Ran well in a much stronger race l/t/o in first time blinkers and given a good chance dropped another 5lb by h'capper to 114. Hasn't run in this low a grade for over 3 years when finishing 2nd off 120.
    Others I think are worth a minimum e/way bet - Newbury 3.25 Court Master 16/1 - 4.00 Queens Present 33/1 - 5.05 House Island 50/1

    Musselburgh 2.30 Elysian Prince 22/1
    Last edited by swedish chef; 22nd March 2019 at 2:38 PM.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  6. #1744
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Others I think are worth a minimum e/way bet - Newbury 3.25 Court Master 16/1 - 4.00 Queens Present 33/1 - 5.05 House Island 50/1

    Musselburgh 2.30 Elysian Prince 22/1
    Well done Swede .. you da man !!

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  8. #1745
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Others I think are worth a minimum e/way bet - Newbury 3.25 Court Master 16/1 - 4.00 Queens Present 33/1 - 5.05 House Island 50/1

    Musselburgh 2.30 Elysian Prince 22/1
    Brilliant with House Island, awesome!

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  10. #1746
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Others I think are worth a minimum e/way bet - Newbury 3.25 Court Master 16/1 - 4.00 Queens Present 33/1 - 5.05 House Island 50/1

    Musselburgh 2.30 Elysian Prince 22/1
    House Island - B0000000000000M! - Dan Emmett 4th and Sportsbook paid extra place.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  12. #1747
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    House Island - B0000000000000M! - Dan Emmett 4th and Sportsbook paid extra place.
    22-Mar-19
    17:12:34
    17:05 Newbury
    House Island - 4 TBP (4 TBP)
    Betfair Bet ID 1:158166976447 | Placed: 22-Mar-19 16:58:25
    Back
    5.10
    5.86
    --
    24.03
    Won
    -----------------
    22-Mar-19
    17:11:39
    17:05 Newbury
    House Island - To Be Placed (3 TBP)
    Betfair Bet ID 1:158115509749 | Placed: 22-Mar-19 11:31:55
    Back
    9.40
    3.00
    --
    25.20
    Won
    --------------
    22-Mar-19
    17:10:16
    17:05 Newbury
    House Island - Win
    Betfair Bet ID 1:158115492713 | Placed: 22-Mar-19 11:31:42
    Back
    65.00
    2.00
    --
    128.00
    Won
    ---------------
    22-Mar-19
    17:10:16
    17:05 Newbury
    House Island - Win
    Betfair Bet ID 1:158167684559 | Placed: 22-Mar-19 17:02:39
    Back
    110.00
    2.00
    --
    218.00
    Won
    --------------
    Boom! You have won £67.00
    Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way
    P
    22nd Mar NEWBURY 14:50 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 0f 52y - Each Way

    4. Dan Emmett
    20/1
    25/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
    L
    22nd Mar NEWBURY 15:25 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 0f 52y - Each Way

    2. Court Master
    16/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
    L
    22nd Mar NEWBURY 16:00 NOVICE'S HANDICAP CHASE 2m 7f 86y - Each Way

    10. Queens Present
    33/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
    W
    22nd Mar NEWBURY 17:05 FLAT 2m 0f 69y - Each Way

    4. House Island
    50/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places

    Stake:
    £15.00
    Returns:
    £67.00
    ----------------
    Boom! You have won £30.00
    Single Each Way
    P
    22nd Mar NEWBURY 14:50 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 0f 52y - Each Way

    4. Dan Emmett
    20/1
    25/1
    E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places

    Stake:
    £10.00
    Returns:
    £30.00
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  13. #1748
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Shout chef!

    I got the fourth place on DE but must have got the bets on before you added House Island so missed it.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  15. #1749
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Shout chef!

    I got the fourth place on DE but must have got the bets on before you added House Island so missed it.
    Sorry mate - pretty sure I did add the last two later on.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  16. #1750
    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    Excellent stuff Swedish. I had £2 on each of them so an amazing return for my £8.

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  18. #1751
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    No worries. The way things are going for me it probably just didn't register!

    Chuffed for you, though. Keep 'em coming.

    ('Cos I can't be arsed looking through midweek dross )
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Newbury 2.40 Idilico 20/1 e/way 3 places sportsbook - 16/1 4 places - There are form lines with 3 of the top four in the betting that suggest the selection should be competitive and go close.

    Thurles 2.20 My Galway Girl 150/1 - I have taken 60/1 5 places sportsbook for a minimum punt - she last ran in August in a race that was run in a very fast time. She travelled well through the race but was eased when any chance had gone but did have to quicken up again when challenged for 8th place suggesting there was more in the locker and the distance beaten was misleading. The winner went on to win the mares novice at the festival. Todays race has a look about it that any of the field could place, I am just hoping my selection has improved enough to be competitive.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  22. #1753
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    Nice one Chef.

    Irish Lincoln.
    Some decent prices on my 4 but only 1 qualifies.
    TONY THE GENT 20/1.
    On his form against Marshall Jennings last year he must have a chance with his 10lb claimer.my one worry is its draw.

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  24. #1754
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Irish Lincoln.
    ...

    TONY THE GENT 20/1.
    On his form against Marshall Jennings last year he must have a chance with his 10lb claimer.my one worry is its draw.
    The claimer would be a serious worry for me.

    In the same race I've taken 33/1 Honor Oak ew 6pl but PP are limiting me again
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  26. #1755
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I'll copy this to the National thread too:

    Grand National - Bless The Wings ew 5pl nrnb/bog 150/1 (B365) - the stats say a 14yo can't win the race but they probably said last year a 13yo couldn't win either. Now, the eagle-eyed out there will have spotted that BTW did not win the race last year...

    However. It was a very gallant third, holding off the Gold Cup third, 8yo Anibale Fly.

    On my handicapping for this race, a pound equates to two lengths. The turnaround in ratings this season means:

    Tiger Roll should be pulled back 18 lengths
    Pleasant Company by 14 lengths
    Anibale Fly by 10 lengths.

    Bless The Wings' age appears to have been allowed for in that he should be in the same place as last year off the same mark. It looks like the handicapper is assuming he doesn't need to adjust its rating to pull it back, that age will do it. Maybe it will.

    Tiger Roll looks a better horse again this year but on my figures he was only very marginally better in the X-C race, nowhere near the big rise the handicapper has given him (which won't apply in this race - it just means to me he won't be as well in as the ratings suggest although I don't know exactly how much he had in reserve the other day).

    Tiger Roll may have been stopping near the finish last year. The TV camera angle made it look like Pleasant Company was finishing but I'm not noticing a discernible difference in the distance back to BTW from the Elbow to the line.

    Anibale Fly is a better horse this year but he's already rated 5lbs higher so will he finish any further forward?

    BTW should probably be in the 25-50/1 range max and it might attract sentimental support on the day from people who back regular finishers in the race and the TV will highlight its run last year. I'd think about laying it off within that range.

    One I slagged off earlier is Blaklion but he's now much better handicapped than I'd thought. I'll write a case for him in due course.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Nice one Chef.

    Irish Lincoln.
    Some decent prices on my 4 but only 1 qualifies.
    TONY THE GENT 20/1.
    On his form against Marshall Jennings last year he must have a chance with his 10lb claimer.my one worry is its draw.
    6th skynet paid 6 places but unfortunately I didnt back it with them,doh

  29. #1757
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    TIn the same race I've taken 33/1 Honor Oak ew 6pl but PP are limiting me again
    I might try and watch this race again but the grainy small pictures on the split screen to me made it look like the jockey on Honor Oak (despite being backed in to 14/1) was happy to let the mare be squeezed out of contention as the race was warming up and allowed to coast home after that.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  30. #1758
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I might try and watch this race again but the grainy small pictures on the split screen to me made it look like the jockey on Honor Oak (despite being backed in to 14/1) was happy to let the mare be squeezed out of contention as the race was warming up and allowed to coast home after that.
    Did you manage to see a replay Des,I tried on sporting life but it was still split screen and a total blur.

  31. #1759
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Yes. Same situation. Tried RTV and SL sites, same split screen and poor pictures. I suppose I'll need to give the jockey the benefit of the doubt and assume the horse just didn't see out the race.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Football tonight France 5-0 Iceland 22.0


    Tomorrow Clonmel 2.20 Take A Punt 16/1 - trying to get 21.0 hoping to get 21.0 or better on the machine.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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