Page 58 of 71 FirstFirst ... 848535455565758596061626368 ... LastLast
Results 1,141 to 1,160 of 1411

Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1141
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    981
    Thanks
    525
    Thanked 236 Times in 222 Posts
    Blog Entries
    427
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    True but they might take him out anyway. I thought about taking the risk but suspect he'll still be 25/1 if he makes it. I actually thought his run on Saturday was full of promise but the fact he was unplaced should help keep the price long.
    I agree. I think he has run well all season really.i was quite pleased when i realised he was 5th last week as skybet paid 5 places.

  2. # ADS
    Circuit advertisement
    Join Date
    Always
    Posts
    Many

    To remove these adverts please either login or join if you are not a member.


     

  3. #1142
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    12,630
    Thanks
    526
    Thanked 668 Times in 475 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    I was quite pleased when i realised he was 5th last week as skybet paid 5 places.
    Better than a slap in the face with a wet fish.

    Which is what I got on Saturday!
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  4. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (11th July 2018)

  5. #1143
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    12,630
    Thanks
    526
    Thanked 668 Times in 475 Posts
    This looks like being my only one today:

    Nwm 3.00 Music Society 100/1 (boosted) 5 places

    This really only came on to my radar when I saw the price. I wasn't expecting it to be the rank outsider. I certainly wouldn't suggest it's my main fancy but I do think the long odds are generous. Music Society hasn't really done anything this season and as a result has come down 7lbs (while others are rising). If he was just in decline would they have entered him for the very valuable Gigaset race at Ascot in a couple of weeks' time? I have as much chance of making the cut there as he has but why enter him in the first place? His run the other week wasn't without promise and was his first since a gelding operation in May so that might explain why he was looked after when he didn't get a clear run. With another half a stone off today...

    I can't see him winning given the profile of some rivals but I really don't think he should be 100/1 if there were sound reasons for entering him in such valuable races as this and the Gigaset.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  6. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Colin Phillips (12th July 2018)

  7. #1144
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    12,630
    Thanks
    526
    Thanked 668 Times in 475 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    This looks like being my only one today:

    Nwm 3.00 Music Society 100/1 (boosted) 5 places

    This really only came on to my radar when I saw the price. I wasn't expecting it to be the rank outsider. I certainly wouldn't suggest it's my main fancy but I do think the long odds are generous. Music Society hasn't really done anything this season and as a result has come down 7lbs (while others are rising). If he was just in decline would they have entered him for the very valuable Gigaset race at Ascot in a couple of weeks' time? I have as much chance of making the cut there as he has but why enter him in the first place? His run the other week wasn't without promise and was his first since a gelding operation in May so that might explain why he was looked after when he didn't get a clear run. With another half a stone off today...

    I can't see him winning given the profile of some rivals but I really don't think he should be 100/1 if there were sound reasons for entering him in such valuable races as this and the Gigaset.
    My main bet in the race has now drifted enough to qualify:

    Staxton 22/1 6 pl - I feared him as a dark horse in the big 3yo hundred-grander at York and he ran very well but improved upon that rating next time on the Newcastle Tapeta under relatively tender handling. I think he’ll come on again from there.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  8. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Colin Phillips (12th July 2018), moehat (12th July 2018)

  9. #1145
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    12,630
    Thanks
    526
    Thanked 668 Times in 475 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    This looks like being my only one today:

    Nwm 3.00 Music Society 100/1 (boosted) 5 places

    This really only came on to my radar when I saw the price. I wasn't expecting it to be the rank outsider. I certainly wouldn't suggest it's my main fancy but I do think the long odds are generous. Music Society hasn't really done anything this season and as a result has come down 7lbs (while others are rising). If he was just in decline would they have entered him for the very valuable Gigaset race at Ascot in a couple of weeks' time? I have as much chance of making the cut there as he has but why enter him in the first place? His run the other week wasn't without promise and was his first since a gelding operation in May so that might explain why he was looked after when he didn't get a clear run. With another half a stone off today...

    I can't see him winning given the profile of some rivals but I really don't think he should be 100/1 if there were sound reasons for entering him in such valuable races as this and the Gigaset.
    Tried to make all on the unfavoured side and was involved in the fight for second place on that side. For me, that justifies the selection. He outran his odds by some way.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  10. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (12th July 2018)

  11. #1146
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    981
    Thanks
    525
    Thanked 236 Times in 222 Posts
    Blog Entries
    427
    Have you ever considered bet365 extra place markets DO.
    I bet he would have been at least 20/1 10 places and he was 10th.
    If i fancies a big priced one i will back it normally and then do a cover bet on the extra place market.
    I never thought i would get excited watching a photo for 9th lol.

  12. #1147
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    12,630
    Thanks
    526
    Thanked 668 Times in 475 Posts
    When my brain is in gear it might occur to me to look about at place markets but no sooner do you mention ten-place markets on here than it's in one ear and out the other. There's so little inside my head for info like that to cling to.

    Note to self: check for 10-places!
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  13. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (13th July 2018)

  14. #1148
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    981
    Thanks
    525
    Thanked 236 Times in 222 Posts
    Blog Entries
    427
    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Got to do MASTER CARPENTER 25/1 corals 33s in the john smiths.
    Loves york and won this 3 yr ago and is down to a good mark.has been consistent all year.
    Would love some rain but has won on firmish.
    Glad to see this got in the race.in the last 10 yrs 9 winners were drawn 11 or over,the only one that wasnt was Master carpenter(1)
    When he won it he was rated 103 and runs tomorrow off 93.
    The negatives i suppose is a 7 yr olds have a poor record and he would probably be better with softer going.
    But hes been running well and its a low mark and a good price.

  15. #1149
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    12,630
    Thanks
    526
    Thanked 668 Times in 475 Posts
    Forget all the peripheral stuff.

    I'm having a weekend away from home with Mrs O. If Master Carpenter has indeed made the final line-up I wouldn't want to be on anything else!
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  16. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (14th July 2018)

  17. #1150
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    12,630
    Thanks
    526
    Thanked 668 Times in 475 Posts
    Master Carpenter qualifies for the thread today. Good thing.

    Others of interest on a tough day by sheer dint of numbers:

    Asc 12.45 Poyle Vinnie 25/1

    Nwm 1.40 Shady McCoy 25/1 & Tupi 25/1

    Nwm 3.20 Petrus 25/1

    I'm really tight for time and can't explain but trust me they shouldn't be those prices. I'm not saying they will win, obviously. Even if they should be just 10/1 chance it's 1/10 they won't win. But they might give us a wee shudder along the way...
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  18. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Colin Phillips (14th July 2018), Outsider (14th July 2018)

  19. #1151
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Talbot Green
    Posts
    12,619
    Thanks
    1,236
    Thanked 642 Times in 473 Posts
    Blog Entries
    1
    Well done with Poyle Vinnie and Shady McCoy, DO.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

  20. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Colin Phillips For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (14th July 2018), Outsider (14th July 2018)

  21. #1152
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Posts
    981
    Thanks
    525
    Thanked 236 Times in 222 Posts
    Blog Entries
    427
    This racing game can be so frustrating at times.
    BURNT SUGAR was put up on here by Danny in the victoria cup and i made money in the extra place market.
    Euchen glen was put up by DO (i think) in the plate and skates in today.

    I did 2 in the 140 and 2 in the 340 in 4 ew dbles. I had Burnt sugar at 25s and nothing with it.
    I backed the other 3 in singles but not Burnt sugar.
    Just one of those days.

    Well done today DO.pity master carpenter couldnt do it.Petrus ran ok in 4th.

  22. The Following User Says Thank You to Outsider For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (14th July 2018)

  23. #1153
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    12,630
    Thanks
    526
    Thanked 668 Times in 475 Posts
    I'm waiting to see if one or two more qualify on price but for the time being:

    Nwm 4.00 - Pactolus 22/1 - Not my main bet in the race and this one might just be as very stupid a play as when I put him up a couple of runs back at this course. He’s currently off 98 (was 100 last time) on the all-weather but has only raced once on turf since last July, the time before last here when nothing went right and his inexperienced rider never looked comfortable. Today’s jockey doesn’t exactly scream ‘positive’ but last summer his turf OR was 7lbs lower than his all-weather one so there’s a tenuous case for arguing he really should be around 91-93 on turf rather than 82. He might win by miles but he’s more likely to blow out again so it’s a win saver.

    Nwb 2.25 - Percy's Word 20/1 - I'll be pleased to be able to put up my main fancy for this race if it drifts a wee bit to qualify but one whose profile I like is Percy’s Word. On his seasonal debut the other week he recorded a similar figure to his good form of last season so if that was just a prep for this and if he has come on for that run he might be much better than his rating and therefore under the radar.

    Nwb 2.25 - Arch Villain 5pl 66/1 - is 4lbs lower than when a close fourth in the Ebor first time up last season under Pat Dobbs and is probably being targeted at York again but at such massive odds he’s worth an each-way saver with the extra place on offer. He's also had a run this season (in the Plate). He has been beaten a total of 86 lengths, though, in those two post-Ebor outings so which Arch Villain will turn up today? Dobbs rides him for the first time since York.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  24. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    Colin Phillips (21st July 2018), Outsider (21st July 2018)

  25. #1154
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    12,630
    Thanks
    526
    Thanked 668 Times in 475 Posts
    Curr 5.30 - Romiyna 60/1 (boosted) - I can't remember the last time I had a bet in any Irish flat race let alone the Oaks and the Coolmore domination and multiple entry strategy tends to kill my interest. However, Romiyna represents a formidable partnership in its own right in the Aga Khan and Dermot Weld so I was quite surprised to see how big she is in the market. She hacked up on her debut over 12f before unsuccessfully dropping back two furlongs at Naas. By Nathaniel out of a Lammtarra mare she's bred for stamina and a strong race - should Coolmore make it so - will suit her as well as any of theirs. The down side is that only two places are on offer, which probably partly explains the price. Still, I'm game...
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  26. #1155
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    12,630
    Thanks
    526
    Thanked 668 Times in 475 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Nwb 2.25 - Arch Villain 5pl 66/1 - is 4lbs lower than when a close fourth in the Ebor first time up last season under Pat Dobbs and is probably being targeted at York again but at such massive odds he’s worth an each-way saver with the extra place on offer. He's also had a run this season (in the Plate). He has been beaten a total of 86 lengths, though, in those two post-Ebor outings so which Arch Villain will turn up today? Dobbs rides him for the first time since York.
    Out to 80/1 with Hills but only 4 places.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  27. #1156
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    12,630
    Thanks
    526
    Thanked 668 Times in 475 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Nwb 2.25 - Percy's Word 20/1 - I'll be pleased to be able to put up my main fancy for this race if it drifts a wee bit to qualify but one whose profile I like is Percy’s Word. On his seasonal debut the other week he recorded a similar figure to his good form of last season so if that was just a prep for this and if he has come on for that run he might be much better than his rating and therefore under the radar.

    Nwb 2.25 - Arch Villain 5pl 66/1 - is 4lbs lower than when a close fourth in the Ebor first time up last season under Pat Dobbs and is probably being targeted at York again but at such massive odds he’s worth an each-way saver with the extra place on offer. He's also had a run this season (in the Plate). He has been beaten a total of 86 lengths, though, in those two post-Ebor outings so which Arch Villain will turn up today? Dobbs rides him for the first time since York.
    I've taken another pop at this race purely on account of the price. Newlands isn't too far off the top of my ratings list for the race but is a huge price. Obviously I prefer others but I can't resist a wee nibble at this one. I took some coffee money at over 400/1 at Betfair and 16/1 place-only at Ladbrokes but he's 25/1 to place if you have a Betway account.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  28. #1157
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    1,918
    Thanks
    196
    Thanked 170 Times in 139 Posts

    The Long Shot Thread

    Market Rasen 2.05 All Set To Go is clearly an unreliable sort and spat the dummy last time out having scored at Stratford the time before. Also spat the dummy at Newton Abbot but ran a decent race in the Swinton prior to that. Hes won off a higher mark before and may be worth a small interest at 40/1 (boosted to 45/1 with Lads) in the hope hes on a going day


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Last edited by viking; 21st July 2018 at 11:48 AM.

  29. #1158
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    1,918
    Thanks
    196
    Thanked 170 Times in 139 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    Market Rasen 2.05 All Set To Go is clearly an unreliable sort and spat the dummy last time out having scored at Stratford the time before. Also spat the dummy at Newton Abbot but ran a decent race in the Swinton prior to that. Hes won off a higher mark before and may be worth a small interest at 40/1 (boosted to 45/1 with Lads) in the hope hes on a going day


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Well clearly this wasnt a going day. Fair play to the winner but shocking riding by all the other jocks


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  30. #1159
    Senior Member Tanlic's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Bangkok Thailand
    Posts
    6,925
    Thanks
    124
    Thanked 210 Times in 192 Posts
    Can't have been as bad as Haley Turner on Rip Orf which was a disgrace She really wants to retire her best is way behind her
    Formely Fist of Fury

  31. #1160
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    2,935
    Thanks
    441
    Thanked 345 Times in 313 Posts
    Blog Entries
    27
    Beverley 8:30...ARIZONA SUNRISE Each Way. My main comment is to watch the betting for a market move. This horse used to be with Richard Hannon, changed hands to David Brown, won a race at Musselburgh one day when well-punted, then moved on to Tina Jackson. Arizona Sunrise clearly has a slight preference for a right handed track having won at Musselburgh. That was after a break and tomorrow is the horses first start this season, after an eye-catching effort at Newcastle at the back end of 2017. Comments that day read 'never involved, but made late headway,'. The video evidence backs up those comments. The horse looked like it would come on a lot for the run. This can out run odds of 50/1, (Ladbrokes) but as I said, a market move might be an even better indicator for a good run. This could be well handicapped on very best form. I wouldn't be at all concerned that it runs from one pound out of the handicap.
    Last edited by Marble; 23rd July 2018 at 5:37 AM.

  32. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Marble For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (22nd July 2018), PRICEWISE2008 (22nd July 2018)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •