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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1821
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    [QUOTE=Desert Orchid;721084]Ahem... 'Scuse me... but I put Valseur Lido up some time before Maxbet

    Sorry.obviously didnt scroll back far enough.

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    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Scottish Champion Hurdle - Irish Roe 33/1 - btn 5L in this race last year now 6lb lower - Jockey does have a bad habit of taking this horse wide and losing many lengths in the process but maybe that is the riding Instructions?
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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    Voix d'eau 325a 33/1 4lb lower than his last win for Harry Fry.hasnt had his ground.drier the better.

  5. #1824
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Nwb 3.15 - Circus Couture 25/1 - handicapped on his best form to win, goes well in soft, showed up well early for a while in the Lincoln, JCH knows how to land a big pot... all good reasons to fancy this one but none better than persuading Dettori to ride.
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  7. #1825
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    Nebo is an interesting recruit to Tom Hogan's yard, is in great form, looking and working well and could well outrun his odds at Naas Gladness Stakes 4 00 tomorrow.
    An ew interest at 33/1 recommended.

    Two wild ones ew
    Dromod Lad 2.50 Naas
    Clifftop Dancer 3.25 Naas

    The former ran well for 6 furlongs first time out and runs over six tomorrow.
    The latter has some okay form and seems to run well fresh.
    More importantly trainer Eddie Harty is in wild form with 12/1, 33/1 winners and a 25/1 placed maiden runner lately.

    More sensible folk may prefer Kinch 3.25 , ran well on third start when apprentice ridden and Colin Keane takes over in first handicap start off 66.
    Last edited by edgt; 12th April 2019 at 10:49 PM.

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  9. #1826
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    2.25 Ayr - Captain Moirette 20/1 - Like Cloth Cap in the National and Circus Couture in the Spring Cup, this is my main bet in the race. It's under the radar a bit despite its form figures but I very much like its profile and the trainer won this race last year with Midnight Shadow.

    EW doubles and treble will also carry some cash.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 13th April 2019 at 9:18 AM.
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    Ayr 1.25 - Dandridge 22/1 - not my main bet in the race but ludicrously well handicapped on his Grand Annual form of a couple of years back. Now with Charlie Longsdon I've detected a glint of the old ability recently but its price tells its own story. An easy win wouldn't surprise me in the least, though.
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  13. #1828
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    1.55 Ayr - Claud and Goldie 22/1 - again not my main bet in the race but not far behind the top on my figures and with a progressive profile. Should probably be around the 12/1 mark.

    2.25 Ayr - Irish Roe 33/1 - I agree with swedish chef on this one being overpriced. Hasn't built on promising form of last season but is on on a very good mark on her best form. Price is a reflection of current form rather than best.

    3.35 Ayr - Arthur's Gift 50/1 - on jockey bookings is the NTD second string but is totally unexposed as a progressive novice chaser upped in trip. Bellamy was unlucky to be nosed out last year on Ballyoptic so I hope he can run second to Cloth Cap at a nice price.
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  15. #1829
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Nwb 3.15 - Circus Couture 25/1 - handicapped on his best form to win, goes well in soft, showed up well early for a while in the Lincoln, JCH knows how to land a big pot... all good reasons to fancy this one but none better than persuading Dettori to ride.
    I've taken a saver on Humbert 25/1. This was on my radar for the Lincoln and others on here put him up. He couldn't keep going that day but Tudhope takes over here and I anticipate a big run.

    Edit - another outsider too big to ignore: Banditry 66/1 (200+ xch, 11/1 top 4 finish). Exchange price probably tells its own story, probably has another day in mind but Atzeni doesn't look like a negative booking.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 13th April 2019 at 11:29 AM.
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  17. #1830
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Here's a curiosity...

    This one [Azzuri] went out to 50/1 that day (when I tipped it at long odds) and didn't show. Going through my figures for his race tomorrow (Red Rum) I decided to give him another each-way pop, expecting to get 50/1 again. After all, in its three runs for Skelton, Azzuri has been 20/1, 14/1 and 50/1 and beaten an aggregate of 135 lengths in lesser races than this. So imagine my bewilderment upon seeing it at 9/1 best.
    Didn't run that day. Hacks up today. Stinks, even though I backed it (7/2).
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  18. #1831
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    1.55 Ayr - Claud and Goldie 22/1 - again not my main bet in the race but not far behind the top on my figures and with a progressive profile. Should probably be around the 12/1 mark.
    Money covered. Was right about the price too.
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  19. #1832
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    I’ve backed three qualifiers in the Scottish National, Skipthecuddles 33/1, Acdc 33/1, and Sizing Codelco 66/1. All trading slightly shorter now.
    Last edited by Maruco; 13th April 2019 at 2:17 PM.

  20. #1833
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Understandable punts, Maruco. I didn't have time to tabulate any figures today but I could imagine all three would be on the radar. I'll probably join you on Sizing Codelco with the stable in such good form now.
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  21. #1834
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Nwb 3.15 - Circus Couture 25/1 - handicapped on his best form to win, goes well in soft, showed up well early for a while in the Lincoln, JCH knows how to land a big pot... all good reasons to fancy this one but none better than persuading Dettori to ride.
    All in all a very strange race with two or three being eased right off from some way out but pathetic watching Dettori make himself look like a 10lbs claimer on CC.
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  22. #1835
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Scottish National - Cloth Cap 20/1 (if you can still get it) - it looks to me like this one, which even the form book says is on a steep upward curve, has been kept off the track for a few months to preserve a very low mark for this, plus it's still a novice so potentially better again. The form book also complimented it on its jumping. I expect JJON Jr to ride.
    JJON Jr's claim might have made the difference

    Not for the first time, I'm not impressed with McLernon. He appeared happy to let the front two take three or four lengths off him three out before staying on well again from the last. I did like that he gave up the inside to no-one but I expected him to be more fluent at his jumps. Maybe it was the newness of the experience of the big field and more battle-hardened rivals. Still, I'm not going to complain too much at a profit on the race.
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  23. #1836
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Hexham 5.10 Big Sess 40/1 - worth a token e/way bet - Full brother to The Minch who finished 3rd in 2016 Aintree grade 2 festival bumper on his first run behind Bacardys and Battleford and in front of Ballyandy and Willoughby Court. If the selection has half that ability he should run well? Trainer has had 1 bumper horse this season being placed twice at 50/1 and 100/1 and last 5 seasons has has 1 win and 4 places from 8 horses and 11 runs in bumpers.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Chel 2.40 Tree Of Liberty 20/1 - nicely handicapped on his best form and bred to better on this step up in trip.
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  27. #1838
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    16.25 Cheltenham, think Rockpoint could run a big race.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Nwb 3.15 - Circus Couture 25/1 - handicapped on his best form to win, goes well in soft, showed up well early for a while in the Lincoln, JCH knows how to land a big pot... all good reasons to fancy this one but none better than persuading Dettori to ride.
    I've gone in again with this one today at 40/1. On the face of it, this is a much tougher test than Saturday should have been - hence the much bigger odds - but JCH has only had two runners in this race in the last ten years and both have won so maybe there's something about the race that means more to her than the better prize money in a big handicap. And he wasn't in the least knocked about the other day. Not my main bet, though, just sickness insurance, really.
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  30. #1840
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've gone in again with this one today at 40/1. On the face of it, this is a much tougher test than Saturday should have been - hence the much bigger odds - but JCH has only had two runners in this race in the last ten years and both have won so maybe there's something about the race that means more to her than the better prize money in a big handicap. And he wasn't in the least knocked about the other day. Not my main bet, though, just sickness insurance, really.
    Didn't run too badly trying to give superior horses a start and first run but probably just outclassed anyway. Won't have done his mark for the Hunt Cup too much harm.
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