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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1461
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Fairyhouse 1.35 Cubomania 66/1 - on overall form should probably be in the first six or seven in the market, at which point the general price is less than 10/1, so even in the 12/1-16/1 range he could be a bit of value. I've also taken 14/1 place-only. Coffee money, mind...
    Right on the heels of the leaders and travelling as well as any of them when tipping up two out. Would have been interesting to see how he went from there. The first two seemed to quicken away after the last but I reckon he'd have been in with a shout for third place.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 2nd December 2018 at 3:29 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Fairyhouse 3.10 Cut The Mustard 40/1 - I've always felt this horse is a decent mare in her own right. Sacrificed at the festival to make the running for the same owners Laurina. Was travelling well at the Fairyhouse festival when she fell although for some strange reason Sporting life has her pulling up. She looked over the top at the Punchestown festival.I have a gut feeling she is better than her current mark in a handicap for the first time, although the owners do have another horse in the race ridden by Ruby so I will have a cover bet on that one.
    Well there for a very long way, chef. I was shouting it on but maybe it didn't quite stay.
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    Apologies to anyone who followed mine. Seemed like a good idea at the time! A shadow of his former self.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Being plotted up for something, Marble.
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    Sandown 1:55 - This race looks ripe for a big priced horse to get involved. Molly Carew won a couple of novice hurdles about eighteen months ago; While she has (for the most part) disappointed since, she is still only six, and might just be extremely well handicapped for her first try over fences. 25/1 each way.
    Last edited by Marb; 7th December 2018 at 1:59 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marble View Post
    Sandown 1:55 - This race looks ripe for a big priced horse to get involved. Molly Carew won a couple of novice hurdles about eighteen months ago; While she has (for the most part) disappointed since, she is still only six, and might just be extremely well handicapped for her first try over fences. 25/1 each way.
    Nice call

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    Cheers, what an eventful race. The second horse goes in the tracker.

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    Scoir Mear 2.45 Navan tomorrow.
    JP has 4 in the race and Mark Walsh rides which should be a plus.
    A pure cliff horse but has to have a good race in him on Coral Cup run a few years ago.
    20/1 with Lads,Boyles/Coral an ew bet methinks.
    if feeling really lucky, ew double with Lady In Lavender Sunday Cork 2.50

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    Colin Phillips (8th December 2018)

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    1.30 aintree

    Federici 33/1
    I once thought this horse was going to win a national but never progressed and doesnt stay that far but should be ok at this distance and will like the going. Hopefully Brian Hughes will get him into a rhythm near the front.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    1.30 aintree

    Federici 33/1
    I once thought this horse was going to win a national but never progressed and doesnt stay that far but should be ok at this distance and will like the going. Hopefully Brian Hughes will get him into a rhythm near the front.
    He rang a bell with me too, Outsider, but I'm going to be too heavily committed in the race already to back him as well

    (I haven't looked at any of the betting yet so don't even know if I'll have any qualifiers today.)

    I should maybe add at this point that I've taken two ante-post bets in the National. I think I mentioned Un Temps Pour Tout earlier in the thread (66/1 taken twice so far) and I've followed it up with Noble Endeavor at 50/1.

    I don't expect NE to win today. I anticipate that today is all about a) getting him qualified and b) getting some experience of the fences. If he ends up with another few pounds off his back for April, so much the better.
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    Ain 1.30 Call It Magic 20/1 - joint-top on my master ratings but some poor runs require forgiving.
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    Colin Phillips (8th December 2018)

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    San 1.20 Little Boy Boru 20/1 - Top on my ratings and Harry Cobden looks an interesting booking for a small operation on a horse that is a stone lower than its peak.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Ain 1.30 Call It Magic 20/1 - joint-top on my master ratings but some poor runs require forgiving.
    That was a grand run for my money!
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    Outsider (8th December 2018)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    1.30 aintree

    Federici 33/1
    I once thought this horse was going to win a national but never progressed and doesnt stay that far but should be ok at this distance and will like the going. Hopefully Brian Hughes will get him into a rhythm near the front.
    A good run for my money.bit greedy as i could have had 25s for 5 places.never mind.
    Well done with yours DO

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    Desert Orchid (8th December 2018)

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Yes, I had half an eye on it through the race hoping it would get a place for you (while hoping it wouldn't beat mine )
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I should maybe add at this point that I've taken two ante-post bets in the National. I think I mentioned Un Temps Pour Tout earlier in the thread (66/1 taken twice so far) and I've followed it up with Noble Endeavor at 50/1.

    I don't expect NE to win today. I anticipate that today is all about a) getting him qualified and b) getting some experience of the fences. If he ends up with another few pounds off his back for April, so much the better.
    I'm also pretty happy with the run of Noble Endeavor. Popped round safely just off the pace, made a bit of ground going to two out and wasn't asked much after that. I'm pretty sure that's him qualified to run now and, as I said, if he drops a few pounds for today even UTPT might struggle to beat him
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Punchestown 4.45 Esthers Present 25/1 - available at 28/1 & 33/1 - worth risking a small e/way. Was 6th in this race last year but hasn't run since. Of those that finished the race all have improved their ratings.
    1st - +16lb -- 2nd +40lb -- 3rd +10lb --4th hasn't run again -- 5th +18lb -- 6th is selection and hasn't run again -- 7th +3lb
    Although the selection hasn't run for a year I'm hoping he has improved by a similar margin and this race has been his target? If so off a 3lb lower mark than last year he could be very well h'capped?
    This one came up on my tracker this evening. I've taken a small bet at 500/1.

    Just in case...
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    Huntingdon 2.25 - Hammersley Lake 22/1 - I backed this one the other week in the race won by Politologue as I have a big figure for it. It faded badly from three out on the day and maybe the ground was just too soft for it or maybe it just needed it after a fruitless trip to America. Another downside is that it looked a pretty small and slight animal compared with some of its rivals that day but it has won under top weight in handicaps so maybe it's deceptive. Yet another negative is today's jockey (for me at any rate). However, Hammersley Lake went up to 165 for winning a decent handicap at Perth (good ground) off 159 but even today's lower OR of 161 makes him the highest rated horse in the field. If he runs to form he could be seriously over-priced.
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    Outsider (9th December 2018)

  30. #1479
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    This one came up on my tracker this evening. I've taken a small bet at 500/1.

    Just in case...
    At least I smashed the SP (100/1)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    This one came up on my tracker this evening. I've taken a small bet at 500/1.

    Just in case...
    Funny enough,its in my tracker as well.will get a hcap mark now.

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