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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #2021
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Cosmelli is a must-bet. He's weighted to win an average renewal but I fear something will improve past him. If I could get 8/1 place-only (4pl) I'd settle for that as a saver.

    I've gone in again on Aircraft Carrier at 50/1, 6 places.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 29th June 2019 at 7:08 AM.
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  3. #2022
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    In the consolation race I've taken Seamour 20/1 4 pl. He's now seriously well handicapped and in the past has been a gamble in the big one, more than once if memory serves. He can go very well after a break but they appeared to have 'made sure' he's ready by giving him an airing about 10 weeks ago.
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  5. #2023
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    In the consolation race I've taken Seamour 20/1 4 pl. He's now seriously well handicapped and in the past has been a gamble in the big one, more than once if memory serves. He can go very well after a break but they appeared to have 'made sure' he's ready by giving him an airing about 10 weeks ago.
    Decent enough run for 4th. I got mildly excited 3 out.

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  7. #2024
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Just caught up on the racing.

    Places for Seamour and Cosmelli. I suppose expecting a win was maybe too much.

    I thought Aircraft Carrier was going to do me a serious turn for a few moments when he threw down his challenge but maybe he didn't stay.

    I want to see the Plate again. On first viewing, I couldn't help but think quite a few of them were there to preserve marks, running well enough but not mounting a serious challenge.
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  8. #2025
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've had another look at the Derby and really can't make a strong enough case to favour any one of the principals over the other. I noticed a Makhtoum animal chasing home Broome so maybe Madhmoun will be very dangerous, assuming he's much better, but I have reservations about his stamina. In the same race, I thought Sovereign wasn't given much of a hard time in third and is as likely to improve for the step up in trip as anything else. Sometimes these Coolmore rags seriously outrun their odds so I've taken a small interest in him. It's a sad day when the only bets I can find in the race are longshots (Humanitarian, Line Of Duty and Sovereign) just for the sake of an interest. So, to add to Humanitarian:

    Sovereign 100/1
    Line Of Duty 33/1
    Story of my life.
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  10. #2026
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Story of my life.

  11. #2027
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    Cosmic chatter seems a bit big at 50/1 in the first at ponte. I’ve had a nibble ew

  12. #2028
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Story of my life.
    You dope lol.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    In fairness to me, I was out all day from about 1pm and had 'done' about 10 races between Newcastle, Newmarket, Windsor and York (three winners plus five other places and only a very modest profit on the day!) so couldn't be arsed with the Curragh card as I knew I wasn't going to be seeing any racing at all. I didn't even look at the card and it was only when I saw Sovereign had won that it occurred to me that I might have backed it at Epsom. Had I been at home I might have ventured some sickness insurance on it knowing that was going to finish the day otherwise in front but such is life. I'm hearing there's some disquiet about how the other O'Brien horses were ridden.
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  14. #2030
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    First up for tomorrow:

    Haydock 3.15 - Everything For You 50/1 - I'm not convinced this one was at its best behind the hot favourite here First Eleven at York and he's 7lbs better off for six lengths, in theory not enough but, as I say, I think there's better to come based on earlier form. He's a course winner and might have been prepared for this. He was visored for the first time at York but that bit of kit has been ditched in favour of his usual cheekpieces. Maybe the visor didn't work as hoped. On the balance of his form, he should probably be around the 14/1-16/1 mark so I'm happy to take a punt to small stakes but it won't be my main bet in the race.
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  16. #2031
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    I’ve gone for a couple today;

    Blue De Vega @ 22/1 6 places in the opening Ascot handicap and Scarlett Dragon @ 25/1 6 places in the John Smiths (33s available 5 places)

    I’ve also put them in an e/w trixie with Burnt Sugar for a repeat in the Bunbury Cup but at 14/1 he didn’t quite qualify for this thread.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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  18. #2032
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    Blue de Vega for me too. C&D winner from 3lb higher and a close up 3rd in the Epsom Dash staying on strongly at the finish


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  20. #2033
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    [B]ALEMARATALYOUM 330nm 28/1 caught my eye in the Victoria cup.disappointed O.Murphy rides something else.

  21. #2034
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    Lost all chance at the start there falling out of the stalls


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  22. #2035
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    Yep, and obviously came 7th when I had 6 places
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  23. #2036
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    AEOLUS 740H 33/1(25/1 4Places)

    Used to be rated 108 at one time and finished 2nd in the stewards cup two years ago and ran well over 7f two runs ago when 6th beaten about 2L by Admirality with Lake Volta 3rd and is 8lb and 6lb better off today.heavy going when beaten last time.
    Did once finished behind golden apollo and is 6lb better with him.
    Both admirality and lake volta are rated 100 so do they want to get a penalty for 20g?
    Last edited by Outsider; 19th July 2019 at 12:47 PM.

  24. #2037
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    I’ve gone for a couple today;

    Blue De Vega @ 22/1 6 places in the opening Ascot handicap and Scarlett Dragon @ 25/1 6 places in the John Smiths (33s available 5 places)

    I’ve also put them in an e/w trixie with Burnt Sugar for a repeat in the Bunbury Cup but at 14/1 he didn’t quite qualify for this thread.
    Have you noticed it is 66/1 bet365 for the stewards cup.
    Win or lose that's MASSIVE

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  26. #2038
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    Betty's hope 25s in the super sprint tomorrow.

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  28. #2039
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    BLAIRMAYNE 325C 25/1 betfwir 5 places 1/5 odds.
    Ocasio Cortez 350nb 33/1

  29. #2040
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    Quote Originally Posted by HawkWing View Post
    Betty's hope 25s in the super sprint tomorrow.
    Noice

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