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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #2321
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    Thanks for the reminder of Cliffs of Dover that is actually a 'cliff' horse of mine. I've just backed Kalabaloo in the Foxhunters at 125/1 because I assume Gina Andrews is another of the Andrews girls and it's just been mentioned on racing radio as a horse that shouldn't be such a big price. I need a decent priced winner/placed horse today to get me out of trouble!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbet View Post
    At the start of the season I put up a Dark Horse in one of my 10 to follow lists. I selected him not only because he wasn’t in the list but because I saw not only potential but signs of a plot in the way he had so far been campaigned.
    The trainer is no stranger to pulling of gambles in this sphere, won the “Shwotefair hdl” 3 times with 3 different horses. So let’s have a look at what he’s been up to, and if the math’s can add reassurance.

    First time up he Changed from Ed Vaughan to Gary Moore and after a 115 days break he sloshed up at Kempton in a 2m introductory hdl at 25/1.

    Next the trainer could offer no explanation to a poor run, I can, go watch it, he cruised up running far too freely and dropped back. That run was followed by a gambled on run where he ran into Fusil Raffles, (the race he took a chunk out of himself) finishing second.
    He’s now been raised to 135… possibly not enough to get into this race, so we will make sure and add a few pounds without giving to much away.

    Still a young horse with plenty of time to improve. A run on the flat over a mile, 3 weeks before his biggest test yet, (the race that drew my attention) 2m back at Kempton, a 4-year-old taking on older more experienced rivals…Silver Streak no less, off level weight.

    Held up in touch in the last pair, he made a mistake at the 3rd last, closed on the leaders 2 out, pressing for second and drawing alongside Grand Sancy but no chance with the winner, he looked to have the measure of GS when that one fell at the last…..the handicapper raised him 8Lb’s.

    Too much weight, lets get him fit, primed, and drop a Lb or 2..Elite hurdle Christopher Wood behind, since raised 7Lb…Fusil and Sancy fight out the finish…12Lb superior getting 3Lb and he never got involved in the dog fight finish with the future in mind.

    Next Epatante giving 3Lb, took her on 2 out, one paced after…Chris Woods, Elvis Mail…behind….the math equates to something in the region of 10/15Lb well in, in future…gets in here of 138….had a pipe cleaner at Kempton on the flat 16 days ago….got to be still improving at 5.

    So there you have it….I’m bored waiting…So please don’t Beat The Judge up…
    I hope you are right as I put this up last night on my thread.now 125/1

  3. #2323
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    That was one of the first I looked at, Maxbet. I'll need to put some sickness insurance on it now!

    Enjoyed the rationale too
    Ran a blinder, almost took it up going to the last.

  4. #2324
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    I think Her Majesty may be plotting a couple of handicap wins at Kempton tomorrow

    14:05 Kemp 14th Mar
    Keen On@11/1
    Win
    15:15 Kemp 14th Mar
    Forth Bridge@25/1
    Win
    3.2
    £1,059.84
    Doubles (£3.20 x 1) EW
    @ 312.0

    On a serious note for the thread Forth Bridge won the race very easy last year off 2lb lower and hoping he has been plotted for this race tomorrow.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  5. #2325
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    I think Her Majesty may be plotting a couple of handicap wins at Kempton tomorrow

    14:05 Kemp 14th Mar
    Keen On@11/1
    Win
    15:15 Kemp 14th Mar
    Forth Bridge@25/1
    Win
    3.2
    £1,059.84
    Doubles (£3.20 x 1) EW
    @ 312.0

    On a serious note for the thread Forth Bridge won the race very easy last year off 2lb lower and hoping he has been plotted for this race tomorrow.
    I totally get where you're coming from, chef. I was suspicious last year when FB won and he hasn't followed it up at all. I thik there would be something suspicious afoot if he won again. I'm with you on Keen On, though.

    Two longshots for me today, unfortunately they're in the same race.

    Kempton 2.40 Any Time Will Do & Garo De Juilly, both 22/1 - I put up the former for one of the festival handicaps but he missed the cut (by one I think). The worry is that the stable's runners pretty much bombed during the week. GDJ was on my radar but I was holding on to see if it got into any of the handicap hurdles and I planned to nibble at it at long odds. It's just well handicapped on its best form and I see it's blue across the board today.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I totally get where you're coming from, chef. I was suspicious last year when FB won and he hasn't followed it up at all. I thik there would be something suspicious afoot if he won again. I'm with you on Keen On, though.

    Two longshots for me today, unfortunately they're in the same race.

    Kempton 2.40 Any Time Will Do & Garo De Juilly, both 22/1 - I put up the former for one of the festival handicaps but he missed the cut (by one I think). The worry is that the stable's runners pretty much bombed during the week. GDJ was on my radar but I was holding on to see if it got into any of the handicap hurdles and I planned to nibble at it at long odds. It's just well handicapped on its best form and I see it's blue across the board today.
    Garo de Juilly was tipped up on racing radio last night so I backed it straight away. Was it scratched from a Cheltenham race or is my memory playing tricks again?

  7. #2327
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I totally get where you're coming from, chef. I was suspicious last year when FB won and he hasn't followed it up at all. I thik there would be something suspicious afoot if he won again. I'm with you on Keen On, though.

    Two longshots for me today, unfortunately they're in the same race.

    Kempton 2.40 Any Time Will Do & Garo De Juilly, both 22/1 - I put up the former for one of the festival handicaps but he missed the cut (by one I think). The worry is that the stable's runners pretty much bombed during the week. GDJ was on my radar but I was holding on to see if it got into any of the handicap hurdles and I planned to nibble at it at long odds. It's just well handicapped on its best form and I see it's blue across the board today.
    Garo de Juilly was tipped up on racing radio last night so I backed it straight away. Was it scratched from a Cheltenham race or is my memory playing tricks again?

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    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    Balloted out of the Pipe I think.

  10. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Bonjers For This Useful Post:

    Desert Orchid (14th March 2020), moehat (14th March 2020)

  11. #2329
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    ...it's been one of those weeks [sigh]….

  12. #2330
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    ...it's been one of those weeks [sigh]….

  13. #2331
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Downpatrick

    3.10 Poormans Hill 25/1 - Won this race last year off 6lb lower but with 7lb claimer is 1lb lower.

    2.10 I can make a case for all the outsiders but can't pin one down. So have done all 5 to minimun stakes e/way.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  14. #2332
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Downpatrick

    3.10 Poormans Hill 25/1 - Won this race last year off 6lb lower but with 7lb claimer is 1lb lower.

    2.10 I can make a case for all the outsiders but can't pin one down. So have done all 5 to minimun stakes e/way.
    Made a mistake Poormans Hill won it 2 years ago - Amaulino won it last year so have done that one as well at 30.0 on the machine & 6.8 4 places.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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