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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1921
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    RP email at 18.31 yesterday had Romanised tipped up by Spotlight at 20/1. Another one this morning with it as Paul Kealy's tip, also 20/1.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Desert Orchid (18th May 2019)

  3. #1922
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've just taken Mythical Magic 20/1 in the same race. I have it as an improver with not to much to find against poor G1 opposition.

    Not hard to make each-way cases for lots of these. It's a glorified handicap.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  4. #1923
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Uttoxeter 7.50 Lady Markby 33/1 1pt e/way - 3rd in this race last year btn less than a length. 1lb lower today. Blind punt that wind op has the desired effect as recent form very poor.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  5. #1924
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    Auteuil 4.00
    Mr Adjudicator won a decent handicap at the Punchestown Festival and can outrun odds of 33/1 here with the assistance of James Reveley



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  7. #1925
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Lockinge - Romanised 28/1
    I don't think they were paying four places when I backed it. If anyone backed it today I hope you got the extra place even if the price wasn't great. Could have been third with a better ride, I thought, but plenty of these were just prepping for Ascot, possibly including Romanised.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  8. #1926
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Ascot Gold Cup - Capri 20/1 (Betfair/PP) - I backed this one earlier in the month at 12/1 after it was beaten in its seasonal debut and I'm not too bothered that it was beaten again the other evening. If, as AOB has stated, the Gold Cup is the aim, he won't have been anywhere near ready just yet and to push him out strikes me as an over-reaction. I'm told AOB is quoted as saying the horse is taking longer to get fit this season. That doesn't bother me either. In fact it reassures me. Considering too that Southern France appears NOT to be trained for Ascot, it should enhance the idea that Capri is the Ballydoyle No 1 for the race.

    Whenever this kind of thing happens, it reminds me of The Minstrel. It was winter favourite for the Derby and after it was beaten in the Guineas was pushed out to 20/1. I can't remember the SP on the day but it wasn't 20s!
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 20th May 2019 at 11:30 AM.
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  9. #1927
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    Hunt 7:10 Lazarus. 20/1 rank outsider in the betting, but has won at Huntingdon before, is still young enough at five years of age to put in a better performance. I wouldn't expect anyone to back him on my advice, but I've put him up anyway.
    Last edited by Marb; 21st May 2019 at 12:20 PM.

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    Into 12's now...money talks.

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  12. #1929
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    Tipperary 5.05 Fallen Forest 40/1 3pts e/way - On a line through Nibiru (Today's fav) and Andalusa the selection improved enough on his second run to theoretically give the fav a race today. Negatives - are sketchy jumping, any lurkers in the field and may be going for a h'cap mark?
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  14. #1930
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    Cheers Chef.i took 16s 8 places

  15. #1931
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    Burauq is a horse I have a soft spot for as it was a memorable long shot winner for me many moons ago. He hasn’t won in 2 years and has been on a basement mark since last year but he has two course distance wins to his name. In addition, he may have hit the frame on his last return to Bath but was hampered badly and lost his chance in the final furlong. This tiny bit of form coupled with the services of a promising young pilot are enough to tempt me to have a wager at 66/1. Edit 16.15 Bath
    Last edited by Nonannyimfine; 24th May 2019 at 10:32 AM.

  16. #1932
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    Give us a clue.. where and when?

  17. #1933
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Haydock 2.10 - Rock Warbler 66/1 - this is totally out of the blue so be warned. I haven't studied the form or owt. I was looking at the race odds to check on another beastie (which I'll put up presently) and noticed that this one is blue across the board and as short as 22/1 in a place but generally 33s. I suspect the 66s won't last so I'm really just relaying a possible springer rather than anything I've dug up myself. I've stuck a very minimal amount on it just in case there is intel behind the move.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  19. #1934
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I was looking at the race odds to check on another beastie (which I'll put up presently)
    Haydock 2.10 - Bogardus 50/1 - This is the beastie I was looking at. Again, I have to stress this is not based on any form or info. I was actually checking up on Danny Tudhope's engagements as he wasn't on one tomorrow that I'd half-expected him to be riding when I noticed he had two rank outsiders today. "Rank" might end up being the mot juste for both of them (see below for the other) and I suppose I'm not really putting them forward as recommendations; rather I suppose I'm just saying that I've nibbled at them today and they happen to qualify for the thread so take them in the spirit in which they're offered. I just wondered why Tudhope would accept a 50/1 shot when he would probably have been approached for a few others in the race with ostensibly better chances.

    Pontefract 7.00 - Low Profile 50/1 - This is the other rank outsider Tudhope rides and he's gone on to this track from Haydock. Is he just picking up as many riding fees as he can while he can? Possibly. The case for Low Profile is slightly better than for the other. He was a clear-cut winner last June off 67 when trained by Roger Charlton and is back down here to 68 so if Bastiman has got the horse back in some kind of form he probably shouldn't be that price.

    I'm probably pishing in the wind with these two but at the prices I'm happy to risk a lottery stake on the each-way singles and ew double. You never know...
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 24th May 2019 at 11:50 AM.
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  21. #1935
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    I liked bogardus too he has the form in the book to win! I’ve also followed you on low profile

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  23. #1936
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Haydock 2.10 - Bogardus 50/1 - This is the beastie I was looking at. Again, I have to stress this is not based on any form or info. I was actually checking up on Danny Tudhope's engagements as he wasn't on one tomorrow that I'd half-expected him to be riding when I noticed he had two rank outsiders today. "Rank" might end up being the mot juste for both of them (see below for the other) and I suppose I'm not really putting them forward as recommendations; rather I suppose I'm just saying that I've nibbled at them today and they happen to qualify for the thread so take them in the spirit in which they're offered. I just wondered why Tudhope would accept a 50/1 shot when he would probably have been approached for a few others in the race with ostensibly better chances.

    Pontefract 7.00 - Low Profile 50/1 - This is the other rank outsider Tudhope rides and he's gone on to this track from Haydock. Is he just picking up as many riding fees as he can while he can? Possibly. The case for Low Profile is slightly better than for the other. He was a clear-cut winner last June off 67 when trained by Roger Charlton and is back down here to 68 so if Bastiman has got the horse back in some kind of form he probably shouldn't be that price.

    I'm probably pishing in the wind with these two but at the prices I'm happy to risk a lottery stake on the each-way singles and ew double. You never know...
    Cracking place with Low Profile D.O.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  24. #1937
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Cracking place with Low Profile D.O.
    Cheers, Chef. Outlay for the day more than covered. I'll take that.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  25. #1938
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    Great shout. 50/1 lovely

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  27. #1939
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    Very nice DO.

    Harome 345y 28/1

    Finished 10th behind copper night and a few others but is better off with them and won off this mark at York last year.i like the jockey as well.Holly Doyle.

  28. #1940
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    Very nice DO.

    Harome 345y 28/1

    Finished 10th behind copper night and a few others but is better off with them and won off this mark at York last year.i like the jockey as well.Holly Doyle.sorry Nicole currie
    Last edited by Outsider; 24th May 2019 at 11:55 PM.

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