[QUOTE=Outsider;724885]BLAIRMAYNE 325C 25/1 betfwir 5 places 1/5 odds.
Ocasio Cortez 350nb 33/1[..5th50/1
Last edited by Outsider; 20th July 2019 at 5:05 PM.
Couldn't predict if he'd win too confidently but Sinfonietta (Wolves 4:15) should never be priced at 66/1 for this.
He's dropped right down the ratings, changed trainer to Sophie Leech had landed a big priced winner the other day. His best form is all first time out, so he may just be able to grab a place tomorrow.
I will have an each way on.
I couldn't predict if he'd win too confidently but Sinfonietta (Wolves 4:15) should never be priced at 66/1 for this.
He's dropped right down the ratings to 75, changed trainer to Sophie Leech, who had a big priced winner the other day.
His best form is all first time out, so he may be able to grab a place after the 320 day absense.
I will have an each way on.
Last edited by Marb; 22nd July 2019 at 8:26 PM.
Outsider (22nd July 2019)
https://www.racingpost.com/results/1...8-05-17/699975
Last time Larchmont Lad ran in a handicap. He's a 7f horse so this was a good effort. He's 50/1 for the International on Saturday and a claimer takes 5 off so he's effectively running off 101. I backed him when he was 4th behind Limato lto (he is a bit of a cliff horse for me) when he disputed the lead. I reckon a strong pace over 7 will suit him.
Colin Phillips (24th July 2019), Outsider (24th July 2019)
I love a longshot and I think GALLIPOLI 555 is worth a £1 ew of anyone's money.
Let me put my case for the defence.
Victoria cup
1st Cape byron 103 now 113
2nd kynren 98 now 101
3rd kaeso 87 ...2nd off92
4th raising sand 103 then won off 103
5th ripp orf 95 4th 93 to RS
6th blue mist 97 3rd off 93 behind RS
7th kimifive 93 ran good 10th to RS
8th glorious journey 109 ..then 2nd 108
9th hanham 93 o'meara now off 88 (plot?)
10th Lake volta 98 now 100
11th quasar 93 now 89
12th Gallipoli 91 now 82 and Megan Nicholls,just had a winner as I type,claims 3lb.
Ran poor on g/f then on the a/w and then in a class 4 with 10st.
Richard Fahey said I'm afraid hes a law unto himself and is a very hard horse to win withbut we keep trying though hoping one day soon it all clicks again.
14th in the Victoria cup was Faheys ZAP which I've also backed but he is 10lb worse with gallipoli
The distances in the Victoria cup were
Nk,HD,11/4,1,HD,1,1/2,nk,nose,sh,11/2. So beat about 6L but is basically 12 lb lower.
Around about 66/1 is for me a decent price,just have to hope he got out the right side of his bed.
I've also done him 100/1 2 places and 20/1 10 places.
Well that didnt work out with a bad draw and being slow away,but the reason to back it was good so onwards and upwards.
York 1.55 - Scarlet Dragon 25/1 (boostable) - candidate for the Will Win Thread...
Illegitimi non carborundum
Colin Phillips (23rd August 2019), moehat (23rd August 2019), Outsider (23rd August 2019), Tout Seul (23rd August 2019)
Geometrical 7.10 curragh. 25/1. More of an each way selection (9 runners declared) as the fav is likely very good but this is well overpriced.
Nothing lost and you got the buzz, that's what it's about.
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
Ayr gold and silver cup and a 1000-1 double.
Silver cup..I cant resist RAPID APPLAUSE 50/1 I put this in my notebook after it won a sprint in Ireland under hands and heels.
It eventually changed stables to mick easterby and it won a couple and has only had the one run this season,last month.
Of course they could have had problems with it but then again this could be a plan.whatever,50/1 is too big imo.
Ayr gold cup. INTISAAB too old? Maybe but he is well hcapped now and has a good 7lb claimer on.20/1
Have a sneaking fancy for Sir Thomas Gresham in the 3.55 listed race at Newbury. Impressed me on his 1st 2 wins as a late developing 3 yo late last year on soft ground, looked a big strong horse. Didn't seem to appreciate the AW afterwards and has been highly tried back on turf in 2 G3s, only just behind Brando and Equilateral in the 1st G3 off level weights, they are still rated 116 and 108. Then taken off his feet in the Palace house stakes behing real speedsters all rated between 103-112 and have won lots of sprints since. Came back after a 3 month break to run a decent 4th in a C1 listed at Newmarket over 6fs, should come on for that race. The problem is todays distance of 7fs, hasn't ran over this far before and tends to lead, however his 2 full siblings did. Agent Alison was btn just 3/4 length in the G3 Fred Darling over todays C/D and at a lower level Colonel Frank won over 7f/1m. His two half brothers both won over 7f/1m. Whether he can settle better is debateable but this race could be tacticle with Salute the Soldier also a front runner hoping to keep the fav at bay. Only Tabarrak well clear of him on ratings and i'm hoping he can get a place, possibly win at perhaps 50/1-66/1.
Nice 2nd at a decent price.
Ayr 2:00 KYLIE RULES never stopped improving since switching to Ruth Carr's stable. She won four races on the bounce earlier this season, before winning a another valuable handicap at Thirsk. She's gone up almost two stone in the ratings this season, about 25lb to be precise. As I said a few weeks ago, the geldings tend to win most of the handicaps, because a) most horses competing in handicaps are geldings, but also because b) there's a significant percentage of colts who improve a lot after the operation. Therefore for a filly or mare to mix it up in the top handicaps is always worth more than the bare rating. Kylie Rules fits the profile and I reckon she'll outrun odds of 20/1 each way here.
Last edited by Marb; 20th September 2019 at 8:10 PM.
Thanks simmo was actually 100 on betfair when i posted this, i also backed it at that time at 50/1 EW 1st 4 at 365.
Don't think any members actually read it before the race but plenty of non members did. Seems rather daft to me that people who can't even post a "well done" are allowed to read what goes on here without having to make any contribution.
Outsider (20th September 2019)
I mentioned Merhoob (66/1) on the race thread during the week and I might go in again at 100/1 or for more places than the ante-post betting offered but he's slipped down my pecking order.
One who was always going to be right at the top is George Bowen (50/1 with more places to shorter odds) but he was only around 18/1 the other day as I recall. Obviously there's been no money for him, which is a concern, but if he's anywhere near his best it will take an exceptional performance to beat him. He has possibly been put away since the spring when he showed he was as good as ever. He’s come down 10lbs since then. Don’t be surprised if Kevin Blake who bred him tips him on TV this morning or at least suggests he likes his chances at a nice price.
There are more qualifiers than in midweek. Bacchus definitely is too long at 33/1 and I'll be stabbing one or two others as well.
As an aside, I don't often bet with Sportingbet but they are longest with every horse in the race although they're only going four places. I might not bother with places for my other bets and just go for the prices and have more running for me, as I often do in the National.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Good luck
Another worth a mention is Maid In India (Newbury 1:45), who worked his way up through the handicaps, and although latest wins came on soft or heavy, has plenty of proven form on good and good to firm too. The 20's has dissappeared, and the 16's is on its way out aswell.
Last edited by Marb; 21st September 2019 at 1:57 PM.
I'll just quickly explain that
It used to be that the forums were pretty much private, you had to join to read anything. That was fine when the channel 4 forums first closed, as hundreds migrated over to here and TRF, and forums were still popular.
However, not being able to read forums is a massive negative on SEO and also attracting new members. It's hard enough these days to keep people posting, let alone getting someone to join when they can't see what they are joining, so the decision was made to open the forum up so non members could read and hopefully join.
It was discussed to have a private forum that only members, or members with a certain post count or length of membership, could access, but it was decided that all that would do would be create a clique of members that others would feel excluded from. Considering thats been mentioned more than once on here, we thought it best not to do that.
Hope that helps explain it
Desert Orchid (21st September 2019)