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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1261
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    Navan 1.55
    That's Mad 16/1 (Bet365)

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    Marble (8th September 2018)

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  4. #1262
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Navan 1.55
    That's Mad 16/1 (Bet365)
    Skybet 16s too.

  5. #1263
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    Doesn't qualify. Has to be 20/1 or better
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  6. #1264
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    Good luck Slim. Let's hope for a big run.

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    Wolverhampton 7:15 Murqaab. 20/1. Immature two year old, ran very green first start, but that was arguably his best run to-date. After a poor performance the last day, you'd think he'd have benefitted from a 41 day break. I fancy he will out run his odds, first-time out in a handicap. Admittably educated guess work, so maybe market confidence would help his chance. I'm in for a penny, in for a pound, as the saying goes.
    Last edited by Marble; 8th September 2018 at 4:23 PM.

  8. #1266
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    Chester 5.15

    How the hell is Baltic Prince 22/1? Won this race three years ago off of 65. Dropped to 71 now after being sent off 6/4 at Brighton. Was 4th beaten under two lengths at Chester the time before that. In good form and very competitive off the mark. Surely he should be a 7/1 or 8/1 shot here.

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    Outsider (14th September 2018)

  10. #1267
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Chester 5.15

    How the hell is Baltic Prince 22/1? Won this race three years ago off of 65. Dropped to 71 now after being sent off 6/4 at Brighton. Was 4th beaten under two lengths at Chester the time before that. In good form and very competitive off the mark. Surely he should be a 7/1 or 8/1 shot here.
    That's the essence of the thread!

    Two for me today, both in the same race again.

    Don 3.00 Cliffs Of Dover 40/1 & Time To Study 28/1

    Cliffs Of Dover, you'll recall, is one I put forward for big things during the last NH season. He was rated 145 eventually over hurdles and could be thrown in off his mark of 88 today. It seems what EC1 used to call recency bias is being overplayed here as he really wouldn't win on his form last time out but before that he slaughtered some decent markers. His racing style might make him vulnerable to overdoing the pace but that's factored into the price for me.

    I've put up Time To Study already this season. He was one of my long-term Ebor fancies but he appears to have forgotten how to run well after looking better than ever earlier in the season. The handicapper has been unusually slow to drop him too. To be honest, this is no more than sickness insurance but on his best form he has the winning of this.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  11. #1268
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    One more

    Listowel 2.15
    Ciara 22/1 (Unibet) 20/1 (general)

  12. #1269
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    One more

    Listowel 2.15
    Ciara 22/1 (Unibet) 20/1 (general)
    Pretty much halved in price so I've spat the dummy and ignored it

    Instead I've stuck some coffee money on Grace To Grace at 50/1 in the same race (2.05, tbp).
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  13. #1270
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    Grace To Grace could maybe have been second with less messing about through the race but the winner skooshed in. No complaints. Looks like I smashed the SP too.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  14. #1271
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Don 3.00 Cliffs Of Dover 40/1 & Time To Study 28/1
    Both ran well but just not quite well enough. I'd say they outran their odds so won't complain too much. I'm just glad Theglasgowwarrior and Austrian School didn't get up! They were on my short-list and I managed to find reasons not to back them.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  15. #1272
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    First up for tomorrow, which I suspect might halve through the morning:

    Don 1.50 (Portland) - Lancelot Du Lac 33/1 - he's 2lbs lower than when winning last year's Stewards' Cup so his class is not in question. Clearly it's his recent turf form that's got him at such a ridiculous price. He even won on the AW off 3lbs higher than at Goodwood for which his mark went up to 110. His runs since his last win were in a Listed race behind The Tin Man, the Wokingham and the Stewards' Cup again but the midsummer fast ground maybe hasn't suited him. With today's rain he might be able to let himself down rather than his backers!

    Also in the Portland - Abel Handy 25/1 - He went up to 105 (off 96 here) for winning the Cornwallis but has failed to figure in a light campaign so far. James Doyle takes over for the first time since the Cornwallis so if that suggests they think he’s on the way back he could go close and maybe even win. He's blue across the board as I write.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 14th September 2018 at 5:33 PM.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  16. #1273
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    Next up...

    Don 3.35 (St Leger) - Nelson 100/1 - Nelson has the strongest stamina aptitude according to dosage expert Steve Miller (see his item in the Weekender) and it may be that he’s been waiting all season for this. He’s also still in the Arc and Melbourne Cup. He won the Ballysax first time up this season before losing his form, possibly with a lucrative back-end campaign in mind. He’s a big price if his Ballysax rating is correct.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  17. #1274
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    I have half an eye on Nelson (boom boom)can see him setting a good gallop -a good play to lay on the machine at 3 figure prices.

  18. #1275
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    Next up...

    Leo 6.00 Fas 50/1 - not far off top rated on ORs/RPRs and won a G3 in France last season so probably should be shorter, around the 12/1 mark, maybe?
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  19. #1276
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    Quote Originally Posted by LUKE View Post
    I have half an eye on Nelson (boom boom) ...
    - my kind of humour...

    You're Tim Vine in disguise, right?
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  20. #1277
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    Leo 6.35 Rhododendron 20/1 (and better) - This looks like another Roaring Lion-Saxon Warrior match but I’m going to have a wee stab at Rhododendron who is maybe overpriced at 20/1 or better. She's joint second-top on both ORs and RPRs (adjusted) so should probably be a lot closer to Saxon Warrior in the betting.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  21. #1278
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    And there's more...

    I've taken some sickness insurance on The Pentagon (25/1). His 2yo form has been franked all over the shop and they've maybe just been messing about with him ahead of a late-season international campaign. But I stress that it is sickness insurance because I backed him ante-post for the Derby.

    Leo 3.50 - Medalla De Oro 20/1 - my saver in the race. Hacked up last time for an amateur so maybe the horse goes well for an inexperienced rider and his claimer today has pretty fair stats so he’s worth a punt as he wasn't hit too hard for that win. He might just be on a steep curve now.

    Leo 7.10 - Reckless Endeavour 40/1 - I think Outsider has also latched on to this one so I'm in good company. Again, it's a small-stakes saver as I have backed three non-qualifiers in the race but his early season AW form would give him a serious chance and the booking of O'Donoghue catches the eye.

    I'll be disappointed if I don't get my head in front with these longshots today.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

  22. #1279
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    I'll chip in with Savalas 22/1 for the Portland, angles are : handles all surfaces, cheekpieces on first time, stable recently rattling in big price winners & only runner out this weekend

    Sent from my SM-G903F using Tapatalk

  23. #1280
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tiny Clanger View Post
    I'll chip in with Savalas 22/1 for the Portland, angles are : handles all surfaces, cheekpieces on first time, stable recently rattling in big price winners & only runner out this weekend
    Yes. On my radar too. I'd suggest taking very seriously anything the stable runs in the Ayr Gold Cup next week. I thought Tommy Taylor looked plotted up for it but he needed to win last week (and maybe should have) but I don't think he'll make it now so whatever else they have in it has to have a shout.
    Two's company, three's allowed.

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