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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1961
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    Quote Originally Posted by viking View Post
    BTG 8th just ahead of Caspian Prince


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    Yes. I did BTG at 14s 10 places and Open wide 12/1 10 places (10th) so a profit on the race.

  2. #1962
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Newmarket 2.45 - Great Hall 50/1, 5pl - Not my main bet in the race and if he continues in similar vein to his form of the last 12 months he wouldn't be any value at 1000/1. He's maybe in terminal decline but he showed a glimmer of his ability over hurdles three runs back in December and I'm curious that he's running here in this valuable race off a six-month break with no apparent chance when he could pick up a £10k prize or two in Class 3 or 4 handicaps. He'd been progressive in 2017, eventually going up to 105 for winning a CL2. He continued around that level early last season on the all-weather but bombed at the Lincoln meeting. He bounced back, though, with a CL2 win at Ripon for which he went back up to 105. His form since then has been so poor he's dropped right down to today's 86. If the likes of Duke Of Firenze can drop to that kind of mark before showing a resurgence then I'm prepared to give Great Hall a chance here to small stakes but I do think Spirit Ridge will take a bit of beating.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  4. #1963
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    I dont know if hes lost a leg but BUBBLE AND SQUEAK 340c looks far too big at 20/1.

  5. #1964
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    I like two in the last at Hamilton tonight.

    Comanche grey and corton lass got them at 40/1 and 30/1 4 places earlier but I see both have been nibbled at.

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  7. #1965
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    Loads of minefields tomorrow so I’ll throw up a few in the hope that some **** sticks.

    2.15 dunhallowcountry 33/1
    2.25 Golden Apollo 20/1
    3.15 Pattie 33/1
    3.35 Fuente 33/1

    Ew yankee for good measure

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  9. #1966
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    Cala tarifa 305 chantilly 33/1 is a big price.beaten 3.25L by the fav last time but was boxed in at a crucial time and had to come round horses.i took 40s earlier with skybet 4 places.

  10. #1967
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Cala tarifa 305 chantilly 33/1 is a big price.beaten 3.25L by the fav last time but was boxed in at a crucial time and had to come round horses.i took 40s earlier with skybet 4 places.
    5th ..btn a HD,1/2,nk ,hd

  11. #1968
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    Cant resist the price.
    dolphin vista 535 ascot. 150/1 2 places only.

  12. #1969
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Three for today:

    3.05 - Well Of Wisdom 22/1
    4.20 - Fox Champion 25/1
    5.00 - Cosmelli 66/1


    Well Of Wisdom - my only bet in the race but it's only really for the sake of interest. Appleby's 2yos have a strike rate around 50% so if this is the best he must be pretty good. He could maybe be simply the best of a moderate bunch that they're exploiting to the max ahead of moving them on but maybe not. I suspect his defeat last time was to keep him under the radar.

    Fox Champion - not my main bet in the race and more of an outside-the-box selection. Hannon produced King Of Change to run second in the Guineas at 66/1 so why isn't he running here? Whether it's injured or whatever is not the kind of thing I follow but what if Fox Champion is now more highly thought of? If so, he shouldn't be this price. King Of Change would probably be around 5/1 for this.

    Cosmelli - I was going to leave this one alone today and get stuck in at Newcastle but the price is just far too big for what I have top rated on Flat form. The consolation race for the Northumberland Plate is worth almost as much as this, would be a much lesser race and he’s proven over track and trip there having won it last year and run close to that level back there this season. A penalty wouldn’t guarantee his making the cut for the big one but it would certainly scupper his chances if he made it but not for the consolation race.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  14. #1970
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    Two with no chance for me today

    3.05 Kuwait direction 125/1
    3.40 signora cabello 80/1

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  16. #1971
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    Stormy Antarctic is more than capable of outrunning 28/1 odds in a very open Queen Anne. The more rain the better.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

  17. #1972
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    VALE OF KENT 40/1 7 places skybet.

    This could just be a run to get him going or they might have planned this.it seems strange to wait this long for his first run.
    Steps up to a mile needs to bring a bit of improvement.

  18. #1973
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've backed new fewer than 6 20/1+ shots in the Hunt Cup as I think they are all worth it.

    The two longest are:

    Circus Couture 40/1 6pl - I know Outsider likes this one too. We've both had it on our radar for some time. I said before its recent win it might struggle to get into this off 97 but it went and won a small midweek race to pick up its penalty. I don't have it as a tracker horse so wasn't even aware it had won until afterwards. I have it top-rated and it's my main bet in the race.

    Zhui Feng 66/1 5pl - Won this a couple of years ago off 100 (104 today) but improved subsequently before losing the plot a bit last season. Gelding and wind operations since last season might be positives and he warmed up nicely at Goodwood last month.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  20. #1974
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    3.40 hunting horn 66/1
    4.20 hand on heart 50/1
    5.00 zwayann 33/1

    Good luck everybody

  21. #1975
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've backed new fewer than 6 20/1+ shots in the Hunt Cup as I think they are all worth it.

    The two longest are:

    Circus Couture 40/1 6pl - I know Outsider likes this one too. We've both had it on our radar for some time. I said before its recent win it might struggle to get into this off 97 but it went and won a small midweek race to pick up its penalty. I don't have it as a tracker horse so wasn't even aware it had won until afterwards. I have it top-rated and it's my main bet in the race.

    Zhui Feng 66/1 5pl - Won this a couple of years ago off 100 (104 today) but improved subsequently before losing the plot a bit last season. Gelding and wind operations since last season might be positives and he warmed up nicely at Goodwood last month.
    The main problem with CC DO is ollie bell has tipped it lol

  22. #1976
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    I like the bet365 extra place market and there are some good value

    CIRCUS COUTURE 20/1 9 places
    ZHUI FENG 28/1 10 places
    VALE OF KENT 22/1 10 places.

  23. #1977
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    The main problem with CC DO is ollie bell has tipped it lol
    I'd no idea. Nor do I have any idea if his tips are any good but even stopped clocks like me are right twice a day.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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  25. #1978
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    I quite like two later in Chelmsford

    8.10 Pattie 50/1
    9.10 Could be gold 50/1

  26. #1979
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    Ascot 5.35 - Charlemaine 80/1 - no study involved in this race and it's one I tend to leave alone. However, I always look out for Cole 2yos at this meeting as they tend to outrun their odds. That the only reasoning behind the selection.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  27. #1980
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    I'm having £2 Ew on hunting horn and desert encounter in the next.

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