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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1841
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Mus 3.00 - Harome 20/1 - I backed this earlier when 18/1 was the best I could get (got BOG anyway) but it's drifted out to qualify. Obviously the drift itself is a concern but in a race that might not be anywhere near as competitive as the numbers suggest I like this one's profile.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  2. #1842
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Eye of the Storm 33/1

  3. #1843
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    MINELLA ROCCO 28/1 Irish national.
    I thought he was going ok at aintree and then made a mistake but I was surprised to see him pull up.maybe this race was in mind.
    Good jockey booking.DW O'connor.

  4. #1844
    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    Jessie Harrington’ yard runs several horses today that have a decent chance, I’m particularly optimistic that Whisperinthebreeze, still available at 20/1, can go one better than his stablemate did at 100/1 in the ‘National and win the big race today. The stable seems pretty positive and the ground should be ideal.
    Have had a fair e/w bet and an anchor for several multiples.

  5. #1845
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tout Seul View Post
    Jessie Harrington’ yard runs several horses today that have a decent chance, I’m particularly optimistic that Whisperinthebreeze, still available at 20/1, can go one better than his stablemate did at 100/1 in the ‘National and win the big race today. The stable seems pretty positive and the ground should be ideal.
    Have had a fair e/w bet and an anchor for several multiples.
    Definite short-list material, TS. My own main bet will probably be Measureofmydreams. Just out of curiosity, what others are you interested in for multiples?
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  6. #1846
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    My own main bet will probably be Measureofmydreams.
    Just placed my bets.

    Measureofmydreams 20/1
    Whisperinthebreeze 20/1


    These are the ones that qualify for the thread. My other bet doesn't.

    I backed Measureofmydreams at Cheltenham and was never happy with the ride he was getting. I thought because he was gambled that day that was the target but he wasn’t ridden like a gamble so I now have to conclude that race was to put him right for this and he’s four times the price here. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up a gamble again.

    Whisperinthebreeze was on my radar for the NH Chase last month (but ultimately I preferred the chances of others) and fell when in front. He was spared a tough race and looks well handicapped here.
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  7. #1847
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    Whisperinthebreeze was 10l in front of Cadmium in February on his required quick ground albeit in receipt of 17lb. 'Nuff said.
    The older I get the better I was.

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  9. #1848
    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    Sorry DO! I wrote a reply but lost signal and the message disappeared.
    Short answer - Nowt special tho I spent a long time looking, Nothing in UK appealed.
    I do think JH will have a good day with Walk to Freedom probably best of the rest. Sizing Pottsie in the last could go well at a price.
    Have backed Robbie Power on Fred the Foot(14/1) plus 2 shorties- Gardens of Babylon and Snow Falcon.
    I wouldn’t want the additional horses to be considered as recommendations, more as attempts to leverage off one I really fancy.

  10. #1849
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Thanks, TS. I'm just back home having left before your reply came through.

    Like I said, I was just curious.
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    Ballydine is too big at 33/1 for the 365 Gold Cup on Saturday but that was freeley available this morning and since then I've seen that Kealey has tipped him (second choice behind Step Back) so now 20s across the board, apart from 888 who are stilll 33/1
    Last edited by wilsonl; 24th April 2019 at 10:53 AM.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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  13. #1851
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Epsom 3.55 Banditry 66/1 - I had no idea the City & Sub meeting was on until literally moments ago when I came across the card in the Weekender so I'm suggesting this without checking the form, hence it comes with a wealth warning. However, I did put it up recently (Newbury Spring Mile?) as I had it clear top on its best old form. It was weak that day and again today but this trip and track are likely to suit a lot better and maybe Newbury was his prep - he certainly wasn't given a hard race that day. Anyway, the chances are that if I had looked at the form I'd still end up suggesting it so there you are...
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  14. #1852
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Just watched the replay. Shocking stuff.
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  15. #1853
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    Quote Originally Posted by wilsonl View Post
    Ballydine is too big at 33/1 for the 365 Gold Cup on Saturday but that was freeley available this morning and since then I've seen that Kealey has tipped him (second choice behind Step Back) so now 20s across the board, apart from 888 who are stilll 33/1
    Unfortunately could only get on at 20s. Paddy Power paying 6 places


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  16. #1854
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Sandown 1.50 - What's Occurring 33/1 - this isn't my main bet in the race (that's Benny's Bridge, for reasons given on other threads earlier in the year) but it is top on my ratings. He won twice on fast ground in the autumn and wasn't beaten far by Global Citizen on possibly inconvenient softer ground in the Gerry Fielden and has since come down a few pounds. I'm hoping the faster ground today will suit him better than many others at shorter prices.
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  17. #1855
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    It looks like my only other longshot today will be River Frost 20/1, Sandown 5.15. He reverts to hurdling after a disappointing couple of goes at chasing and can win if it brings about a return to his best form. I have him top rated on his hurdling form.

    And what the hey... it's the last jumps punt for six months so I might as well go for the double with What's Occurring... 713/1 will pay for the cruise Mrs O and I have been discussing.
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  19. #1856
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Sandown 3.35 Rolling Dylan 20/1.
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

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  21. #1857
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    Quote Originally Posted by swedish chef View Post
    Sandown 3.35 Rolling Dylan 20/1.
    Hate to say this but I'm on that one [sorry; kiss of death with my recent betting history....]

  22. #1858
    Senior Member swedish chef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moehat View Post
    Hate to say this but I'm on that one [sorry; kiss of death with my recent betting history....]
    Pluralism of Ideas and the prosperity of any land are intertwined. Freedom of minds and skill of intellect to 'think the unthinkable' is how humanity has progressed; when minds are incarcerated nothing endures.

  23. #1859
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Sandown 2.25 - Josses Hill 25/1 - Shame there are only two places up for grabs here but I didn't notice this price earlier (mainly because I was looking for a decent price about Charbel) but my ratings say JH shouldn't be any bigger than Go Conquer, Gold Present or Cobra De Mai yet he's at least three times all of them. NDB also appears to have opted for him over Gold Present but I might be misreading that. Maybe they want McGrath to have a good chance of a winning ride (GP) before the end of the season as a reward for his loyalty to the stable. (I'm sentimental myself about stuff like that.) Also on my figures, JH is within a pound or two of the others in race bar Charbel so should really be in single figures. It's more of a value poke than a winning chance.
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  25. #1860
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    Although hes an eleven year old and only won a veterans chase I think 50/1 Rathlin Rose is a bit of value.i actually backed it in running in the Scottish national as I thought he was going well.made a bad mistake 6 out and weakened.

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