Page 64 of 117 FirstFirst ... 1454596061626364656667686974114 ... LastLast
Results 1,261 to 1,280 of 2332

Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1261
    SlimChance
    Guest
    Navan 1.55
    That's Mad 16/1 (Bet365)

  2. The Following User Says Thank You to SlimChance For This Useful Post:

    Marb (8th September 2018)

  3. #1262
    SlimChance
    Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Navan 1.55
    That's Mad 16/1 (Bet365)
    Skybet 16s too.

  4. #1263
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Doesn't qualify. Has to be 20/1 or better
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  5. #1264
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Good luck Slim. Let's hope for a big run.

  6. #1265
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    7,401
    Thanks
    1,350
    Thanked 1,133 Times in 1,015 Posts
    Blog Entries
    110
    Wolverhampton 7:15 Murqaab. 20/1. Immature two year old, ran very green first start, but that was arguably his best run to-date. After a poor performance the last day, you'd think he'd have benefitted from a 41 day break. I fancy he will out run his odds, first-time out in a handicap. Admittably educated guess work, so maybe market confidence would help his chance. I'm in for a penny, in for a pound, as the saying goes.
    Last edited by Marb; 8th September 2018 at 4:23 PM.

  7. #1266
    SlimChance
    Guest
    Chester 5.15

    How the hell is Baltic Prince 22/1? Won this race three years ago off of 65. Dropped to 71 now after being sent off 6/4 at Brighton. Was 4th beaten under two lengths at Chester the time before that. In good form and very competitive off the mark. Surely he should be a 7/1 or 8/1 shot here.

  8. The Following User Says Thank You to SlimChance For This Useful Post:

    Outsider (14th September 2018)

  9. #1267
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Chester 5.15

    How the hell is Baltic Prince 22/1? Won this race three years ago off of 65. Dropped to 71 now after being sent off 6/4 at Brighton. Was 4th beaten under two lengths at Chester the time before that. In good form and very competitive off the mark. Surely he should be a 7/1 or 8/1 shot here.
    That's the essence of the thread!

    Two for me today, both in the same race again.

    Don 3.00 Cliffs Of Dover 40/1 & Time To Study 28/1

    Cliffs Of Dover, you'll recall, is one I put forward for big things during the last NH season. He was rated 145 eventually over hurdles and could be thrown in off his mark of 88 today. It seems what EC1 used to call recency bias is being overplayed here as he really wouldn't win on his form last time out but before that he slaughtered some decent markers. His racing style might make him vulnerable to overdoing the pace but that's factored into the price for me.

    I've put up Time To Study already this season. He was one of my long-term Ebor fancies but he appears to have forgotten how to run well after looking better than ever earlier in the season. The handicapper has been unusually slow to drop him too. To be honest, this is no more than sickness insurance but on his best form he has the winning of this.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  10. #1268
    SlimChance
    Guest
    One more

    Listowel 2.15
    Ciara 22/1 (Unibet) 20/1 (general)

  11. #1269
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    One more

    Listowel 2.15
    Ciara 22/1 (Unibet) 20/1 (general)
    Pretty much halved in price so I've spat the dummy and ignored it

    Instead I've stuck some coffee money on Grace To Grace at 50/1 in the same race (2.05, tbp).
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  12. #1270
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Grace To Grace could maybe have been second with less messing about through the race but the winner skooshed in. No complaints. Looks like I smashed the SP too.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  13. #1271
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Don 3.00 Cliffs Of Dover 40/1 & Time To Study 28/1
    Both ran well but just not quite well enough. I'd say they outran their odds so won't complain too much. I'm just glad Theglasgowwarrior and Austrian School didn't get up! They were on my short-list and I managed to find reasons not to back them.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  14. #1272
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    First up for tomorrow, which I suspect might halve through the morning:

    Don 1.50 (Portland) - Lancelot Du Lac 33/1 - he's 2lbs lower than when winning last year's Stewards' Cup so his class is not in question. Clearly it's his recent turf form that's got him at such a ridiculous price. He even won on the AW off 3lbs higher than at Goodwood for which his mark went up to 110. His runs since his last win were in a Listed race behind The Tin Man, the Wokingham and the Stewards' Cup again but the midsummer fast ground maybe hasn't suited him. With today's rain he might be able to let himself down rather than his backers!

    Also in the Portland - Abel Handy 25/1 - He went up to 105 (off 96 here) for winning the Cornwallis but has failed to figure in a light campaign so far. James Doyle takes over for the first time since the Cornwallis so if that suggests they think he’s on the way back he could go close and maybe even win. He's blue across the board as I write.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 14th September 2018 at 5:33 PM.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  15. #1273
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Next up...

    Don 3.35 (St Leger) - Nelson 100/1 - Nelson has the strongest stamina aptitude according to dosage expert Steve Miller (see his item in the Weekender) and it may be that he’s been waiting all season for this. He’s also still in the Arc and Melbourne Cup. He won the Ballysax first time up this season before losing his form, possibly with a lucrative back-end campaign in mind. He’s a big price if his Ballysax rating is correct.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  16. #1274
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Waterford
    Posts
    8,253
    Thanks
    265
    Thanked 317 Times in 251 Posts
    I have half an eye on Nelson (boom boom)can see him setting a good gallop -a good play to lay on the machine at 3 figure prices.

  17. #1275
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Next up...

    Leo 6.00 Fas 50/1 - not far off top rated on ORs/RPRs and won a G3 in France last season so probably should be shorter, around the 12/1 mark, maybe?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  18. #1276
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by LUKE View Post
    I have half an eye on Nelson (boom boom) ...
    - my kind of humour...

    You're Tim Vine in disguise, right?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  19. #1277
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Leo 6.35 Rhododendron 20/1 (and better) - This looks like another Roaring Lion-Saxon Warrior match but I’m going to have a wee stab at Rhododendron who is maybe overpriced at 20/1 or better. She's joint second-top on both ORs and RPRs (adjusted) so should probably be a lot closer to Saxon Warrior in the betting.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  20. #1278
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    And there's more...

    I've taken some sickness insurance on The Pentagon (25/1). His 2yo form has been franked all over the shop and they've maybe just been messing about with him ahead of a late-season international campaign. But I stress that it is sickness insurance because I backed him ante-post for the Derby.

    Leo 3.50 - Medalla De Oro 20/1 - my saver in the race. Hacked up last time for an amateur so maybe the horse goes well for an inexperienced rider and his claimer today has pretty fair stats so he’s worth a punt as he wasn't hit too hard for that win. He might just be on a steep curve now.

    Leo 7.10 - Reckless Endeavour 40/1 - I think Outsider has also latched on to this one so I'm in good company. Again, it's a small-stakes saver as I have backed three non-qualifiers in the race but his early season AW form would give him a serious chance and the booking of O'Donoghue catches the eye.

    I'll be disappointed if I don't get my head in front with these longshots today.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  21. #1279
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    383
    Thanks
    95
    Thanked 47 Times in 47 Posts
    I'll chip in with Savalas 22/1 for the Portland, angles are : handles all surfaces, cheekpieces on first time, stable recently rattling in big price winners & only runner out this weekend

    Sent from my SM-G903F using Tapatalk

  22. #1280
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,660
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,483 Times in 2,743 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Tiny Clanger View Post
    I'll chip in with Savalas 22/1 for the Portland, angles are : handles all surfaces, cheekpieces on first time, stable recently rattling in big price winners & only runner out this weekend
    Yes. On my radar too. I'd suggest taking very seriously anything the stable runs in the Ayr Gold Cup next week. I thought Tommy Taylor looked plotted up for it but he needed to win last week (and maybe should have) but I don't think he'll make it now so whatever else they have in it has to have a shout.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •