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Thread: The Long Shot Thread

  1. #1221
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    Freedom statue 810R 33/1 just one that caught my eye once.ran quite well after a beak lasr time.not a forlorn hope.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    This isn't my sort of thread to be honest, I do best in the mid-price range (4s-8s) certainly in conditions races.

    I backed Trais Fluors in the Summer mile at Ascot a month or so ago and he rates much better than the bare result, given that he lost up to 5 lengths out the stalls. He was 4th in the Marois last year and runs again in the race tomorrow. Alpha is naturally a hot favourite but the Fabre horse is 40/1 generally and that's just too big.

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  4. #1223
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    7.50 natty dancer 25-1

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Sneaking this one in before the price goes everywhere this evening:

    Ripon 3.15 Marie Of Lyon 20/1 - was upsides Foxtrot Lady in the Stewards’ Cup when her saddle slipped and she was allowed to coast through the final furlong. I’m tentatively rating her as finishing alongside the Balding filly which would suggest she may be on a curve. Not my main bet in the race, though, and I have another for the race which should still qualify in the morning.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Sneaking this one in before the price goes everywhere this evening:

    Ripon 3.15 Marie Of Lyon 20/1 - was upsides Foxtrot Lady in the Stewards’ Cup when her saddle slipped and she was allowed to coast through the final furlong. I’m tentatively rating her as finishing alongside the Balding filly which would suggest she may be on a curve. Not my main bet in the race, though, and I have another for the race which should still qualify in the morning.
    I agree.and it is my main one.ha ha that should ruin his chance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Not my main bet in the race, though, and I have another for the race which should still qualify in the morning.
    Not the main bet (that's Kimberella, fwiw), but the main saver is Dakota Gold 33/1 (boosted/5pl) - Michael Dods is a seriously shrewd trainer and the horse’s hitherto generally disappointing campaign has seen him drop 9lbs, possibly with something like this race as a long-term goal.

    That and Marie Of Lyon in the same race are the only longshots I have today. I'll be happy to get a return from either.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 18th August 2018 at 10:01 AM.
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    Good luck, DO, you landed one of these in last year's running of this race.

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    Desert Orchid (18th August 2018)

  12. #1228
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    It's a race that's been kind to me.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    the main saver is Dakota Gold 33/1 (boosted/5pl) - Michael Dods is a seriously shrewd trainer and the horse’s hitherto generally disappointing campaign has seen him drop 9lbs, possibly with something like this race as a long-term goal.
    First home on the far side. I need to settle for the place return but pulled like a train through the race too. A wee bit unlucky but the winner was some way clear on his side.
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    Well done DO.nice place and marie of lyon ran well.7th

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    Marie Of Lyon was third on her side.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    One of my other bets today has now drifted to a qualifying price:

    Nwm 4.30 Great Hall 25s in places - Great Hall is a pound lower than when winning a race of similar value at Ripon earlier in the season, has course form, Berry has a good strike rate on him (three wins and two places from nine rides while two of the unplaced rides were when 20/1 or more in stronger races) and the ground will suit so he has to be a decent percentage shout. I've split my stake between him and my other fancy in the race which is worryingly weak (Huge Future).
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 18th August 2018 at 4:09 PM.
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  20. #1233
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Seemed to go wrong. Hopefully the horse is ok.
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  21. #1234
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Fran Berry reported Great Hall "was never travelling". Losses lent.

    Today, just the one qualifier:

    4.15 Watersmeet 33/1 - 9lbs lower than when a good fourth in the Plate and probably simply better now on the AW but wasn't beaten far off 101 in last year's Chester Cup and gets to race off 97 here.
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  23. #1235
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Just been reading through the Ebor Meeting thread.

    Edgt reckons:
    Thunder Snow at 25/1 is the value of the day.
    A proper Group 1 horse, hard knocking with no bad run since his Kentucky Derby blip, he would be value to me at half the price.
    Now that I look at it again, he has a good point. He's rated 124, therefore second top on ORs. It may be that, like Watersmeet, he's better on all-weather surfaces but he's worth a small bet at the price.
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  24. #1236
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Oh well, Watersmeet didn't look like a 33/1 when challenging for the lead for a furlong or so at one stage in the straight but was eased down when beaten.

    Thunder Snow lost two shoes.

    Just one qualifier today and to be honest it wasn't on my radar until I saw the betting as I fancy two others a wee bit more and assumed this one was about 12/1. It's actually 28/1 with a couple of minor firms and 25/1 with 5 places at Betfred. Sea Fox (3.00 York). He beat my horse Shanghai Glory last time and I thought did so cosily. He was very well handicapped on his best old form and still is off just 4lbs higher. If he's simply back to form he should be in the mix.
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  26. #1237
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Sea Fox was trying but just not strong enough in the final stages. I've possibly over-rated him on his older form or maybe he wasn't 100% over his recent win.

    A few today...


    3.35 Caspian Prince 28/1 - I think this should be a safe-ish bet for a place and if Battaash blows out he could win. His handicap form this summer suggests he is a G2 minimum sprinter and maybe third best [of this field] after the favourites. However, I've only backed him in the market without the favourite at a price that wouldn't qualify for the thread.

    4.50 - three (should be four!!) qualifiers:

    Dream Today 20/1
    Tangled 33/1
    Queen's Sargeant 100/1


    My main bet is Zap which was a qualifier last night at 20/1 but has shortened up this morning. I have small savers on the three above as, according to my figures, they all have a very fair chance of winning and should be much shorter than their odds.

    From my preview:

    This is interesting. Take out the top three [in my ratings table], two of which are rated on their official mark earlier in the season, and there are only 4lbs between the rest. We’re getting to the stage of the season where this happens more and more often as the horses become more exposed and the handicapper gets a tighter grip on them so it’s the kind of race where the big improvers tend to come to the fore. The most likely of them are Crack On Crack On and Urban Aspect. Much as I am a fan of Crack On Crack On, I’m not sure this course will suit his running style and if he loses ground out of the gate again he could be in trouble. Andrew Balding’s horses are in phenomenal form but Urban Aspect heads the market and that makes me doubt if there’s any value in his price. This brings me back to Zap who is rated to win an average renewal, appears to be still on a curve and is a lovely price. He has to be a very solid each-way shout at 20/1 overnight. Tangled (33/1), Dream Today (14/1) and Queen’s Sargeant (50/1) are all long enough to merit small bets.
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  28. #1238
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Ultimately not good enough yesterday. I was out all day and didn't catch up until very late. Queen's Sargeant ran really well for a 100/1 shot, disputing the lead for a long way up the straight. Dream Today nabbed a place and Tangled wasn't far behind in sixth.

    First up today:

    York 1.50 Morando 22/1 - I have him joint-second top on my ratings and he's only 1lb behnd RPRs' second-top so should he really be such a big price? He's lightly raced so might be fresher than some of these, the stable is in blinding form and the worthy favourite Lord Glitters might just not fancy fast ground too much.
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  29. #1239
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Next up:

    Yrk 4.50 Thomas Cranmer 28/1 (33/1 with one firm but they won't let me on each-way) - I put this one up a couple of weeks ago and things didn't happen for him. I'm keeping a bit of faith with him here.
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  31. #1240
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Next:

    Gwd 3.15
    Reckless Endeavour 33/1
    Mr Scaramanga 50/1


    Reckless Endeavour was a Jamie Osborne sleeper but was claimed after his race last time. If Barron can unleash the real horse here he can win, let alone go close.
    Mr Scaramanga is plummeting down the ratings but has hinted at retaining some ability and if he decides to put an effort in today he's another who could win on his best form.
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