Eleanora Duse (13th June 2017)
Thanks Flame.
House Edge has a solid pedigree with an Irish Oaks winner in the mix. What is interesting is that the first foal of Bezique is the useful Khalidi who is with Gosden. Again I await the debut.
First Drive ran OK today, finishing 2nd. I'm sure Bell was pleased. Helped by Tivoli being withdrawn but that's the way it goes.
No winners yesterday, FSS runners today:
Haydock 2.30
HAVANA GOLD - Floss The Hoss (13.4) 40/1
Hamilton 6.25
TOUGH AS NAILS - Tough Remedy (21.4) 4/6
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
Eleanora Duse (14th June 2017)
On the scant evidence we have of Nathaniel, it would seem he is more likely to produce horses that develop as 3yos.
And ha ha yes you are right that Irish Oaks winner wasn't yesterday.
Was it not at this June Newbury meeting that a certain Brigadier first strutted his stuff?
Unlikely to be anything as good today but the first race has some nicely bred horses. While Rogue is likely to be difficult to beat an Appleby first-timer takes the eye on pedigree. Being There is by Dubawi out of a Deep Impact mare who won the French 1000G. Curiosity has a reasonable pedigree too and Mutafarrid probably comes second in the pedigree stakes being from a strong Wildenstein family and by that good 2yo sire Dark Angel. One for the future may be the filly Anna Nerium, who is also by Dubawi.
Colin Phillips (15th June 2017)
Today's FSS runners:
Newbury 1.30
SOCIETY ROCK - El Borracho (26.2) 100/1
EPAULETTE - Rogue (25.2) 9/4
Newbury 2.00
HAVANA GOLD - Cuban Heel (16.4) 10/1
Nottingham 1.40
SOCIETY ROCK - Cosa Nostra (1.4) 20/1
LETHAL FORCE - Flavius Titus (22.2) 5/1
SWISS SPIRIT - Manthoor (6.2) 11/1
Leopardstown 5.45
RED JAZZ - Dowhatisay (29.1) 25/1
LETHAL FORCE - Lethal Steps (5.4) 4/1
DECLARATION OF WAR - War Hero (10.3) 25/1
DAWN APPROACH - Dawn Delivers (19.2) 4/1
Haydock 7.05
CAMELOT - Knight In Armour (6.4) 10/3
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
Timeform 2-y-o ratings for 2017
106p
ALPHA CENTAURI 104p DE BRUYNE HORSE 104p IT DONT COME EASY 103p BROTHER BEAR 103p DENAAR 103 REBEL ASSAULT 102 HAVANA GREY 100 FROZEN ANGEL
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
Carl (15th June 2017), Eleanora Duse (15th June 2017)
Just had a look to see how last year's top first season sires are doing with their second crop.
SIR PRANCEALOT ! winner from 29 runners
DRAGON PULSE 3/29
FRANKEL 1/4
ELZAAM 2/17
MAYSON 5/23
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
Does that mean Nathaniel is yet to have a 2yo runner this season Colin.
No, it's just that he wasn't in the top 5 first season sires last year.
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
Yesterday, Lethal Steps was a winner for LETHAL FORCE Leopardstown 5.45.
Today's runners and there's quite a few!:
York 1.50
MAZAMEER - Furze Boy (26.5) 125/1
LETHAL FORCE - Hard Graft (16.4) 11/2
York 2.55 (valuable seller)
FINJAAN - Holm First (21.2) 25/1
MAZAMEER - Milton Road (8.6) 5/1
MAZAMEER - Miss Mazzie (13.3) 50/1
SOCIETY ROCK - Roses In June (24.3) 66/1
Sandown 2.00
PENNY"S PICNIC - Global Passion (19.1) 15/2
RECKLESS ABANDON - Haven's View (12.2) 22/1
Sandown 2.35
MAXIOS - Master Of Wine (13.4) 12/1
EPAULETTE - Matewan (24.4) 40/1
HAVANA GOLD - Sallab (16.4) 10/3
Fairyhouse 5.40
EPAULETTE - Little Luna (18.2) 100/1
EPAULETTE - Sankari Royale (14.2) 22/1
Chepstow %.55
EPAULETTE - Merchant Marine (12.2) 7/2
HAVANA GOLD - Mysaan (17.3) 14/1
Goodwood 6.05
RED JAZZ - Rainbow Jazz (7.3) 28/1
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
Eleanora Duse (16th June 2017)
Flame, NATHANIEL hasn't had a 2-y-o runner this season.
He has had 77 runners this year winning 13 races and amassing prize money of approximately 472,000 pounds.
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
This 2nd season slump is interesting. Probably only Mayson is doing equal to/better than at this stage last year (Frankel is probably the same in terms of wins).
It is probably not a general slump as Dark Angel, Acclamation and Kodiac are 3 sires whom I imagine had strong second and third crops.
A couple of decent places but no winners for the FSS yesterday.
Today's runners (as you will see I'm including the trainers of the "beasts"):
Musselburgh 1.35
RED JAZZ - Roland Rocks (10.4) John Ryan 50/1
York 4.40
HAVANA GOLD - Don Pepe (25.3) R. Hannon 10/1
EPAULETTE - International Man (22.4) R. Fahey 18/1
LETHAL FORCE - Knockout Blow (14.4) M. Johnston 3/1
CITYSCAPE - Astraea (7.2) Mick Easterby 15/2
Lingfield 6.50
SWISS SPIRIT - Arden Pearl (25.2) Archie Watson 12/1
RED JAZZ - Shania Says (23.3) Tony Carroll 33/1
Limerick 6.00
SOCIETY ROCK - Mutawasem (30.1) D.Weld 15/2
Leicester 7.40
MOST IMPROVED - Blazing Beryl (24.1) B.Meehan 25/1
HAVANA GOLD - Bucks Frizz (8.4) David Evans 16/1
LETHAL FORCE - Little Miss Lilly (25.2) C.Cox 16/1
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
4.40 York - Arbalet has been working streets better than Never Back Down at home, and has been impressing with older horse Koropick as well. He is expected to win on debut today.
Aragorn (17th June 2017), Colin Phillips (17th June 2017)
Don't know about you but I get irritated by presenters/pundits when they make the comment "trainer X can get one ready first time out". If I was a trainer I think I would be insulted by such comments.
So to try to add some substance to the argument I have been looking at trainers' 2-y-o stats over the last three plus this season, making note of runners, winners, %ages and %age return.
I started off with the trainers who I have perceived to have the most runners
Richard Hannon
2014
all 2-y-o runners 643 (runs) 120 (wins) which is a percentage of 18.7% and 75.7% of stakes returned (level stakes of course)
on their first run 157-17-10.8- 64.6
second run 139-31-22.3-59.5
third run 113-25-22.1-70.6
2015
all 681-109-16.0-75.5
first 166-16-9.6-58.2
second 149-37-24.8-94.1
third 127-24-18.9-81.4
2016
all 626-87-13.9-86.0
first 153-17-11.1-100.3
second 132-25-18.9-105.6
third 109-18-16.5-86.0
2017
all 78-17-21.8-67.4
first 47-6-12.8-34.5
second 23-8-34.8-128.8
third 7-3-42.9-96.3
Just putting the stats up, making no suggestions, just hope someone can find an edge and make a profit. Now for a busy Northern trainer:
Richard Fahey
2014
all 477- 68-14.3-95.2
first 115-15-13.0-144.7
second run 101-12-11.9-46.5
third 84-9-10.7-40.0
2015
all-472-68-14.4-86.1
first 115-18-15.7-82.0
second 109-5-4.6-26.3
third 87-13-14.9-55.4
2016
all 461-57-12.4-79.9
first 98-14-14.3-84.8
second 88-15-17.0-100.6
third 79-5-6.3-62.9
2017
all 111-21-18.9-96.9
first 54-11-20.4-106.7
second 39-5-12.8-37.5
third 15-3-20.0-206.7
That's enough for now, I have looked at Godolphin, Cumani, Clive Cox and a few others and will post them as and when.
If anyone is particularly interested in a trainer - post away.
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
Two FSS winners yesterday; RED JAZZ had Roland Rocks at Musselburgh and EPAULETTE had International Man at York.
Today's runners:
Cork 1.50
AL KAZEEM - Golden Spell (26.1) J.Murtagh 13/2
Doncaster 2.30
DAWN APPROACH - Daffrah (28.3) James Tate 33/1
INTELLO - One Second (31.1) M.Johnston 9/1
VIOLENCE - Quivery (22.4) J. Noseda 5/2
Salisbury 4.15
CITYSCAPE - London's Burning (2.3) R.Beckett 25/1
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
Eleanora Duse (18th June 2017)
Some more trainer 2-y-o stats, this time "the Boys in Blue".
C. APPLEBY
2014
all 245-51-20.8-87.2
first 81-8-9.9-70.1
second 64-21-32.8-121.2
third 47-6-12.8-31.0
2015
all 235-41-17.4-67.3
first 71-5-7.0-31.3
second 58-16-27.6-125.8
third 41-8-19.5-59.0
2016
all 134-33-24.6-81.4
first 44-10-22.7- 78.6
second 37-12-32.4-91.8
third 26-5-19.2-64.8
2017
all 20-10-50.0-165.5
first 13-9-69.2-234.5
second 6-1-16.7-43.8
third 1-0-0-0
I'd like to ask Flame here if he has any input on an apparently complete change in M.O. this year. Up until 2017 (perhaps 2016 as well) you could just about forget about this yards 2-y-o runners on debut but now they all seem to be winning.
S bin SUROOR
2014
all 124-30-24.2-83.9
first 53-6-11.3-58.0
second 32-10-31.2-80.8
third 18-6-33.3-97.0
2015
all 113-37-32.7-110.9
first 47-11-23.4-94.9
second 30-13-43.3-140.9
third 19-6-31.6-104.2
2016
all 110-32-291-111.7
first 53-13-24.5-108.1
second 24-9-37.5-101.4
third 14-3-21.4-72.3
2017
NO 2-Y-O RUNNERS
Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......
Those figures more than suggest that S Bin Suroor had reason enough for complaining.
Off topic but their use of Josephine Gordon is/ must be of huge cultural/social interest back home in United Emirates or is it getting any coverage back there at all.
Eleanora Duse (18th June 2017)