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Thread: Rotten EW Thread

  1. #41
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    Well I was half right!

    I thought JC was going to hold on for a place, but the first and second were two seriously well handicapped horses.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Hope EC1 was on the winner but anyone who backed the runner-up can feel very unlucky.
    been waiting long enough..on large..well for me anyway

  3. #43
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    Well done EC.

    It looked like a weird race. Fast for the first half mile, slow for a mile, and then fast for the last half mile. Those behind the pace were allowed to run a pretty even pace before they got racing, whereas the first four looked as though they set it up nicely for everything else and gave themselves no chance. If they go off like that they've got to see it through and hope they can get everything else off the bridle.

  4. The Following User Says Thank You to Maruco For This Useful Post:

    EC1 (16th April 2016)

  5. #44
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    Depends how you feel about Ivan Grozny.
    My point is that it's a bad e/w thread and that race had no e/w angle on the numbers.
    Last edited by SlimChance; 16th April 2016 at 4:03 PM.

  6. #45
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    Ayr 4.10

    Royale Knight is 20/1 e/w on the show but 3/1 to lay in the 5 place market. An excellent e/w bet.

  7. #46
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    6:40 Wolves - Cuban Queen

  8. #47
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanB88 View Post
    6:40 Wolves - Cuban Queen
    That's not bad e/w.

  9. #48
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I was told this morning that Jim Goldie's in the bumper at Ayr will be backed.

    I don't know a lot about the source but the last time he told me about one from these connections it won but it was a short-priced favourite. This is a 25/1 shot.

    I was going to let it go cos it isn't my kind of race but I'm flush so have indulged myself.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  10. #49
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Once it learns it's a racehorse and not a sheepdog it might do okay
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  11. #50
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    I can't help but feel I've been a bit unlucky there with Cuban Queen. Story of the day.

  12. #51
    SlimChance
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    Navan 5.15 tomorrow.

    The Weld horse won't improve. We know he's around a 90 horse. Ground caught him out when asked to quicken over 12f FTO. O'Brien horse wasn't off a yard FTO and will be a big improver. Is 4/9 v 2/1 correct? It's highly debatable. It feels like 11/10 11/10 might not be far off the SP's in my head.

    You can currently get 2/1 e/w the O'Brien horse. I think it's a win only project but it's absolute robbery E/W 1/5 1.2.3. Wear gloves when you place your bet E/W to avoid leaving finger prints. It needs to die mid race to not place in the 3 and the books are laying you 2/5.

    That's a rotten e/w bet. Not the shite put forward on this thread so far.
    Last edited by SlimChance; 17th April 2016 at 7:07 AM.

  13. #52
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    Yeah. Probably not a thread for me this Slim. I take the point with your example but I'd never be interested in backing something so short ew, even if it is perceived as value. Rather do my money backing it win only!

  14. #53
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanB88 View Post
    Yeah. Probably not a thread for me this Slim. I take the point with your example but I'd never be interested in backing something so short ew, even if it is perceived as value. Rather do my money backing it win only!
    You're thinking about it wrong. Its not too short, its far too big e/w. It needs to die to unplace. You're getting laid 2/5.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    You're thinking about it wrong. Its not too short, its far too big e/w. It needs to die to unplace. You're getting laid 2/5.
    Yeah. Fully get that but if it doesn't win then you're losing 30 quid per 100 staked at 1/5 the odds. That can't be conducive to winning long term?

    Looking at the market this morning the gap is closing between them. If The Gurkha wins we'll probably have a new 2nd favourite for the Derby.

  16. #55
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanB88 View Post
    That can't be conducive to winning long term?
    Oh dear.

  17. #56
    SlimChance
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    Navan 4.45
    Earring 10/3 1/5 odds 1,2.3

    Sensational e/w value. Might I suggest an e/w double with The Gurkha in the 5.15.

  18. #57
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by DanB88 View Post
    Yeah. Fully get that but if it doesn't win then you're losing 30 quid per 100 staked at 1/5 the odds. That can't be conducive to winning long term?
    If you had £100 e/w at 2/1 your expected win on the bet would be £28.60. Are you seriously telling me guys on this forum are having £200 bets today with that sort of expected value? I'll give you a clue, they're not.

  19. #58
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    Agreed. The ew double is a fantastic bet. Well spotted and thanks Slim.

  20. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    If you had £100 e/w at 2/1 your expected win on the bet would be £28.60. Are you seriously telling me guys on this forum are having £200 bets today with that sort of expected value? I'll give you a clue, they're not.
    No. Like I say I'm a novice at this sort of punting and was just using a round figure trying to get my head around it because I'm always keen to consider different approaches and respect others opinions and experiences.

    Regarding the maths I need to have a read around on that because I don't use it as much as I should in my betting but that's more a case of where I am at the moment.

    I've got no idea really the punting habits of the other forum members Slim if I'm being honest. I'll take your word on that.

    In summary Slim you're probably wasting your time with me at the moment.
    Last edited by DanB88; 17th April 2016 at 11:59 AM.

  21. #60
    Senior Member fonz's Avatar
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    I would have included Dewdrop in the 3.40 double in place of earring but he's weak everywhere in the market and the other O'Brien thing in the race is being well backed.

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