Tanlic (16th January 2017)
Aughex (20th November 2017), Carl (21st November 2017), Grasshopper (24th November 2017), Grey (20th November 2017), swedish chef (20th November 2017)
Possibly a bit off topic, but I noticed Timeform have started doing timefigures over the jumps. I couldn't see much more than a cursory introductory article on their website, intimating that they will be using sectionals etc as well as overall times.
Interested in any thoughts anyone has on here? I must admit I am pretty wary of jumps timefigures myself (although I can see the appeal of sectionals). More than happy to be proved wrong...
Interesting. I thought they gave up on NH timefigures a number of years ago because they were by and large proving meaningless. Wonder if they've tweaked their processes. (Sounds painful that.)
I do much less in the way of speed figures over jumps but definitely at the festival meetings.
The authorities have been more forthcoming with accurate measurements in the last couple of years but situations like last Sunday's when they were omitting obstacles all over the shop at Cheltenham make a nonsense of it all.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Be wary of any "sectionals'' that aren't furlong by furlong times. Timeform often use 3 or 4 furlong tranches to judge pace, which is laughable considering the number of possible pace changes within that distance; in NH racing. Still not forgiven them for the conclusion that Hurricane Fly 'outstayed' stayers in the 013 CH.
Faugheen was mightily impressive lat Sunday, but has been accorded a 169 s/f apparently based on little science other than other race times that weekend.
HRI did promise proper sectionals would be in place this season, but have yet to materialise.
Last edited by reet hard; 25th November 2017 at 8:27 AM.
Only sectionals that matter as far as I am concerned is from when the race starts in earnest ....from A to B is not as informative as B to C is IMO and don't give me that slow pace fast pace crap a good horse will adapt no matter the early pace and using time with bad horses is a no no anyway
In other words if 2 horses run on the same ground and one takes 54 seconds from the 3rd last to cross the line at Carlisle and horse y takes 56 seconds then no matter the early pace I know all things being equal which one I will back if the clash again.
The only worry is: people have been trying all these methods for the last 100 years but here we all are still trying to work out how to make that first million...
Formely Fist of Fury
Update from the weekend
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racin...e-day-27112017
Update post racing at Newbury. Newcastle, Fairyhouse etc last weekend
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racin...yhouse-4122017
Grasshopper (7th December 2017)
Update post Sandown, Aintree, Punchestown and Cork
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racin...eting-11122017
On The Blind Side (151p from 136p) May be ok from Timeform but has the handicapper got it in for Nicky Henderson or what
Usually lower than TF He hit him with a 153 That just about puts him on a par with the likes of Champion Hurdle contender Melon and 10 lbs higher than Defi was after he had won 2 Grade 1;s
Unfair prejudice ?
Last edited by Tanlic; 12th December 2017 at 8:09 PM.
Formely Fist of Fury
I think you're too precious about Henderson.
OTBS has now won 2 Grade 2 hurdles with ease; giving 7lbs and a 3L beating to a 134 rated horse (ran green, won going away) in the first of those, and 5lbs and a 9L beating to a 137-rated novice (drew away, impressive) in the second.
The rating might be a little on the high-side, but the suggestion that the handicapper has it in for Henderson alone, is obviously nonsense.
"Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".
SlimChance, March 2018
Latest ratings of the Grade 1 races post Cheltenham Festival 2019
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racin...-races-1832019
Latest ratings for the novices post Cheltenham Festival 2019
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racin...-races-1832019
Outsider (18th March 2019)
Thanks for that Roger
I'd take A Plus Tard to beat Duc Des G next time out
Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done
I agree. I'm also pleased Timeform rated A Plus Tard far enough ahead of Defi Du Seuil. I was ready to jump on my soapbox as I expected them to do the opposite.
I haven't crunched any numbers seriously yet but I thought Duc Des Genievres was very impressive.
I may end up concluding that the race fell apart but I'd felt beforehand that if there was a Douvan or an Un De Sceaux in the race it would be the grey hence my pre-race enthusiasm for him.
But A Plus Tard was even more impressive to me. Whether the form amounts to the same figure I'll wait and see.
Illegitimi non carborundum
The Arkle and Champion Hurdle both fell apart so I'd be very dubious about the form of both races.
Well so far I wouldn't say I've done any headscratchng about it but I watched the race again yesterday and remembered what was going through my mind at the time: they're dropping like nine-pins here. As early as the third fence or so I felt DDG had it won. As you know, I had it down beforehand as a substandard race and couldn't quite get my head round Glen Forsa's place at the head of the market although time may well show he's a lot better than I thought, but I thought from early on he looked like a class horse in among handicappers but maybe he was the only one who really acted in the ground. There was no post-race 'that's what we hoped he would do' from Mullins or Townend. They seemed genuinely surprised which did worry me a wee bit.
One mistake I did make after DDG won the Arkle was not checking back to the December race in which, at even money fav, he'd failed to give the allowance to A Plus Tard. I might otherwise have backed the latter in her race. But I'd done the form at the 48-hour stage and was pressing on with getting through the races for later in the week.
Illegitimi non carborundum
I have to admit to going to the back form to see if it all ties together, and the conclusion I came to was that they are both significant improvers.
In the case of DDG people will say 'but what if Cilaos Emery or Le Richebourg were running?' In the case of the former I'm confident that he has improved more than a stone since finishing third to him. Not inconceivable with Willie who would have had him hard fit at the Festival. He made a mistake at the second last which cost him the race against Cilaos Emery, so there was also an element of 'who knows' to the run. Le Richbourg's form runs through Us and Them who DDG beat more impressively than Le Richbourg did twice over. Inconclusive but another strand to add in. As I say I found it difficult to come to a conclusion but there is evidence from outside the Festival that helps.
The difficulty was coming to a figure for DDG given what happened in the race an elsewhere on the Tuesday, and there is almost certainly something in what Darren says above. Plus he clearly handled the ground better than a bunch of inferior horses. For me the big question mark will be if he can back it up at Punchestown on better ground. I suspect he won't run to the mark anyone gives him for this race, although he may well still win his race.
Last edited by Maruco; 19th March 2019 at 11:02 AM.
I've come at the Close Brothers from more than one angle but arrived at pretty much bang on the same result.
My figure for APT works out at 166 in open company. That's quite a rating and would account for most of the championship novice races of recent times. I had him down, as you know, as potentially massively unexposed (along with a few others) but I'm not sure I had him potentially at that level.
The weird thing is, I suspect I'm under-valuing the form still.
There's a huge difference in the times of the later races compered with the earlier ones. It's looking like the rain only really got into the ground by mid-afternoon. Duc Des Genievres has also put up a huge rating but it's based on the same going allowance as for Beware The Bear's race and I'm not sure the ground was anywhere near similar.
DDG's race certainly appeared to fall apart with Glen Forsa departing early and others quickly dropping out for one reason or another but they did appear to go fast yet he was never out of a hack canter just behind the pace, jumping incredibly slickly for a novice. I think his new OR is probably in the right ball-park but I might be guilty of assuming my pre-race reasoning that he was the only one in the field potentially in the same class as Douvan and Un De Sceaux to be correct so I need to be careful that I'm not guilty of wishful thinking but the time rating is pretty much off the scale.
I'll get to Defi Du Seuil in due course.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 20th March 2019 at 7:53 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
Maruco (22nd March 2019)