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Thread: World Cup Group D

  1. #261
    Senior Member Hamm's Avatar
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    Good post Ali.

    I'm surprised at the prices for Germany-USA.

  2. #262
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    Unfortunately the sample size can be only 3, but perhaps this is part of the reason why the 2 football teams in Manaus are also rans compared to the rest of Brazil?

    I was shocked by how poor Italy were against Costa Rica (who aren't a good team at all, no matter how you put a fancy underdog spin on it), and how much Croatia capitulated in the 2nd half v Mexico. I was also very confident that we would at least draw Uruguay but we put in a much flatter performance than v Italy, coincidence? I highly doubt it.

    Teams who have played in Manaus are at a huge, huge disadvantage than others, there's no surprise Uruguay came through late against both England and Italy when you consider this.

    To put a tiny bit more evidence to this when I was in Vegas a few weeks ago, I met a Brazilian guy from Manaus amazingly enough (I have him on Facebook if anyone needs evidence by PM, fwiw), he said that he couldn't believe they chose to hold matches there when it was announced a few years back, not just because of the match itself which would be hell, but the effects would last weeks afterwards. On the evidence of this World Cup so far, he's spot on.

    Perhaps that's why they're not playing any knockout games there...

  3. #263
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hamm View Post
    Good post Ali.

    I'm surprised at the prices for Germany-USA.
    Value to be had if you believe in football, but I still think draw is the play.

  4. #264
    Senior Member Hamm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AliGupter View Post
    Unfortunately the sample size can be only 3, but perhaps this is part of the reason why the 2 football teams in Manaus are also rans compared to the rest of Brazil?

    I was shocked by how poor Italy were against Costa Rica (who aren't a good team at all, no matter how you put a fancy underdog spin on it), and how much Croatia capitulated in the 2nd half v Mexico. I was also very confident that we would at least draw Uruguay but we put in a much flatter performance than v Italy, coincidence? I highly doubt it.

    Teams who have played in Manaus are at a huge, huge disadvantage than others, there's no surprise Uruguay came through late against both England and Italy when you consider this.

    To put a tiny bit more evidence to this when I was in Vegas a few weeks ago, I met a Brazilian guy from Manaus amazingly enough (I have him on Facebook if anyone needs evidence by PM, fwiw), he said that he couldn't believe they chose to hold matches there when it was announced a few years back, not just because of the match itself which would be hell, but the effects would last weeks afterwards. On the evidence of this World Cup so far, he's spot on.

    Perhaps that's why they're not playing any knockout games there...
    I have rarely seen a team so legless after 60-65 minutes. I was telling my Dad that even though it was 0-0 then the bet was gone as physically the Croats were finished.

  5. #265
    Senior Member Hamm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AliGupter View Post
    Value to be had if you believe in football, but I still think draw is the play.
    I think that the possibility of the teams not going for it in the last 20 is more than factored into the draw price already.

  6. #266
    Senior Member Harbinger's Avatar
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    Some player quotes on the matter here:

    http://sports.yahoo.com/news/u-s--ba...164403131.html

  7. #267
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    Looking at the 538 group qualifying projections it seems that they rate Ghana's chances of advancing better than the 11/2 available. This Manaus thing has given me the reason to pull the trigger now.

    It might be a statistical blip but I'm not so sure. Factoring in that Germany and Ghana have had a day's xtra rest and Portugal would need to win a by a big margin to qualify Ghana just might be able to sneak this one.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  8. #268
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    To play devil's advocate:

    - Cameroon were fairly shite against Mexico in Natal before they went near Manaus - remember Mexico had two good goals disallowed and Hernandez missed a tap in late on.

    - With England/Italy its harder to separate an effect as it was their first game; but if there was a hangover, you might have expected Uruguay to win more easily against Italy yesterday. As it was, they needed an Italy sending off and a bit of a fluke goal (in off his shoulder!) to win.

    - Croatia are more interesting. Played well against Brazil in the opener and smashed Cameroon up in Manaus, but the Brazil / Mexico draw meant they had to beat Mexico to stay in the competition. I think Mexico were the better team on the night and deserved the win. Once they scored, Croatia had to go for it and were picked off mercilessly for the second. Croatia actually had their best chances after that, having a shot cleared off the line before Mexico's third and then scoring a late consolation. Croatia's biggest problem? An incredibly poor goalkeeper.

    There may be an effect, but has it been enough to change any results so far? The only post-Manaus performance that would really raise an eyebrow for me was Italy's against Costa Rica.

  9. #269
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    I think you'll change your opinion on that when you see how poor Uruguay are v Colombia, at least.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gareth Flynn View Post
    To play devil's advocate:

    - Cameroon were fairly shite against Mexico in Natal before they went near Manaus - remember Mexico had two good goals disallowed and Hernandez missed a tap in late on.

    - With England/Italy its harder to separate an effect as it was their first game; but if there was a hangover, you might have expected Uruguay to win more easily against Italy yesterday. As it was, they needed an Italy sending off and a bit of a fluke goal (in off his shoulder!) to win.

    - Croatia are more interesting. Played well against Brazil in the opener and smashed Cameroon up in Manaus, but the Brazil / Mexico draw meant they had to beat Mexico to stay in the competition. I think Mexico were the better team on the night and deserved the win. Once they scored, Croatia had to go for it and were picked off mercilessly for the second. Croatia actually had their best chances after that, having a shot cleared off the line before Mexico's third and then scoring a late consolation. Croatia's biggest problem? An incredibly poor goalkeeper.

    There may be an effect, but has it been enough to change any results so far? The only post-Manaus performance that would really raise an eyebrow for me was Italy's against Costa Rica.
    All fair points. Makes me even more curious about how tomorrow plays out.
    ROLL ON THE RESISTANCE !!!

  11. #271
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AliGupter View Post
    I think you'll change your opinion on that when you see how poor Uruguay are v Colombia, at least.
    Uruguay aren't great anyway (qualified 5th without Brazil). They are also certain to be without the Chipmunk which makes them rank bad.
    Colombia @ 23/20 in 90 mins look an absolute maxbet banker.

  12. #272
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    Uruguay aren't great anyway (qualified 5th without Brazil). They are also certain to be without the Chipmunk which makes them rank bad.
    Colombia @ 23/20 in 90 mins look an absolute maxbet banker.
    Exactly my point, to be honest I think they're absolutely terrible and ripe for the picking, wouldn't be surprised if Colombia, who look top class, beat them by several.

    On a level playing field I think Uruguay would have finished bottom of that group, they had every advantage and still only scraped through with a lot of luck.

  13. #273
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Did anyone watch all of the Columbia-Japan match last night?

    I ask because I only saw snippets, turning over during interruptions in the Greece match. I backed the Greece/Japan double (approx 15/1) in the belief both were better than 3/1 shots on the night. I was wondering if Japan played well or if they were just beaten by a better side, or what.

    I intend to try and catch up on the match online but I'd like to hear the opinions of anyone who saw it for themselves.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  14. #274
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    I was watching both games at the same time, from what I saw, Colombia started off slowly, first 20mins or so I'll give to Japan, then Colombia took control after they got a penalty on the counter. Japan's goal was against the run of play, but 2nd half Colombia just sat back and seemingly picked them off at will. Different to how they were the first couple of matches (much more on the front foot), which is a good thing.

  15. #275
    Senior Member Hamm's Avatar
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    Columbia were miles better and toyed with them, never coming out of 2nd gear.

  16. #276
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Colmbian price against Uruguay will collapse too after a ban is announced. Get on now

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