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Thread: Final Group matches - The Draw

  1. #1
    SlimChance
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    Final Group matches - The Draw

    Is there any angle in perming the draws in the matches where a draw will suit both teams in the finals group matches? Some of these go off sub 6/4 on Betfair. You could also have some dead rubber matches where the draw shortens up.

    Purely for a small staking fun bet this could offer a lot of edge. Any thoughts on the best matches to include? I'm think of playing any 3 and any 4 from say 8 matches.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Bar the Bull's Avatar
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    Let's have a look at the proportion of draws in final group matches.

    4/16 in 2010
    4/16 in 2006
    4/16 in 2002
    5/16 in 1998

    Still want to put the effort in?
    Welsh and Proud.

  3. #3
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bar the Bull View Post
    Let's have a look at the proportion of draws in final group matches.

    4/16 in 2010
    4/16 in 2006
    4/16 in 2002
    5/16 in 1998

    Still want to put the effort in?
    I wouldn't play all 16 games. Just the 4 draws.

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    Senior Member Bar the Bull's Avatar
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    I understand that.

    I just wonder if you are picking a bad set from which to perm your draws. Given the probability of a draw in the final set of matches is 25%, compared to a group game average of 35% plus in every world cup.

    Stats suggest you would be better off picking any other set of matches from which to perm your draws
    Last edited by Bar the Bull; 3rd June 2014 at 9:18 AM.
    Welsh and Proud.

  5. #5
    SlimChance
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    Stats? ******* stats.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bar the Bull View Post
    Let's have a look at the proportion of draws in final group matches.

    4/16 in 2010
    4/16 in 2006
    4/16 in 2002
    5/16 in 1998

    Still want to put the effort in?
    How many of those 16 in each year were matches when a draw meant both teams go through(or the dead rubber example as above)?
    Last edited by Flagship uberalles; 3rd June 2014 at 1:42 PM.
    "The religious persecution of the ages has been done under what was claimed to be the command of God. I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do to their fellows, because it always coincides
    with their own desires" -- Susan B. Anthony

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    Senior Member Bar the Bull's Avatar
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    I'd need to check. Portugal v Brazil last time round and Sweden England in '06 off the top of my head. But if I am not mistaken, Corkman is talking about picking the matches in advance, so it is impossible to know when such an eventuality will exist.
    Welsh and Proud.

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    Ah right. I was wondering.
    "The religious persecution of the ages has been done under what was claimed to be the command of God. I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do to their fellows, because it always coincides
    with their own desires" -- Susan B. Anthony

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    While the concept is interesting, I'd have thought that draws in the opening round of group matches is a better bet. Every country will play its strongest eleven and every country will be afraid of losing.
    For what it's worth, I'm in a competition that includes forecasting the result of every match and I have 6 out of sixteen draws in the opening round and 4 out of 16 in the final round.
    If you want suggestions for final round draws, Croatia/Mexico and Italy/Uruguay would top my list.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Well, the final count was 2 draws in the first 16 matches, 4 in the second 16 and 3 in the third 16. Hope you steered clear, Slim.
    The older I get the better I was.

  11. #11
    SlimChance
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    No I was just throwing the thought out there.

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