Results 1 to 11 of 11

Thread: Final Group matches - The Draw

  1. #1
    SlimChance
    Guest

    Final Group matches - The Draw

    Is there any angle in perming the draws in the matches where a draw will suit both teams in the finals group matches? Some of these go off sub 6/4 on Betfair. You could also have some dead rubber matches where the draw shortens up.

    Purely for a small staking fun bet this could offer a lot of edge. Any thoughts on the best matches to include? I'm think of playing any 3 and any 4 from say 8 matches.

  2. # ADS
    Circuit advertisement

    To remove these adverts please either login or join if you are not a member.


     

  3. #2
    Senior Member Bar the Bull's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Llandubno, West Wales (very west)
    Posts
    9,537
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post
    Let's have a look at the proportion of draws in final group matches.

    4/16 in 2010
    4/16 in 2006
    4/16 in 2002
    5/16 in 1998

    Still want to put the effort in?
    Welsh and Proud.

  4. #3
    SlimChance
    Guest
    Quote Originally Posted by Bar the Bull View Post
    Let's have a look at the proportion of draws in final group matches.

    4/16 in 2010
    4/16 in 2006
    4/16 in 2002
    5/16 in 1998

    Still want to put the effort in?
    I wouldn't play all 16 games. Just the 4 draws.

  5. #4
    Senior Member Bar the Bull's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Llandubno, West Wales (very west)
    Posts
    9,537
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post
    I understand that.

    I just wonder if you are picking a bad set from which to perm your draws. Given the probability of a draw in the final set of matches is 25%, compared to a group game average of 35% plus in every world cup.

    Stats suggest you would be better off picking any other set of matches from which to perm your draws
    Last edited by Bar the Bull; 3rd June 2014 at 9:18 AM.
    Welsh and Proud.

  6. #5
    SlimChance
    Guest
    Stats? ******* stats.

  7. #6
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Belfast
    Posts
    1,465
    Thanks
    12
    Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Bar the Bull View Post
    Let's have a look at the proportion of draws in final group matches.

    4/16 in 2010
    4/16 in 2006
    4/16 in 2002
    5/16 in 1998

    Still want to put the effort in?
    How many of those 16 in each year were matches when a draw meant both teams go through(or the dead rubber example as above)?
    Last edited by Flagship uberalles; 3rd June 2014 at 1:42 PM.
    "The religious persecution of the ages has been done under what was claimed to be the command of God. I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do to their fellows, because it always coincides
    with their own desires" -- Susan B. Anthony

  8. #7
    Senior Member Bar the Bull's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Llandubno, West Wales (very west)
    Posts
    9,537
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post
    I'd need to check. Portugal v Brazil last time round and Sweden England in '06 off the top of my head. But if I am not mistaken, Corkman is talking about picking the matches in advance, so it is impossible to know when such an eventuality will exist.
    Welsh and Proud.

  9. #8
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Belfast
    Posts
    1,465
    Thanks
    12
    Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts
    Ah right. I was wondering.
    "The religious persecution of the ages has been done under what was claimed to be the command of God. I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do to their fellows, because it always coincides
    with their own desires" -- Susan B. Anthony

  10. #9
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    North Wales
    Posts
    2,654
    Thanks
    362
    Thanked 420 Times in 291 Posts
    While the concept is interesting, I'd have thought that draws in the opening round of group matches is a better bet. Every country will play its strongest eleven and every country will be afraid of losing.
    For what it's worth, I'm in a competition that includes forecasting the result of every match and I have 6 out of sixteen draws in the opening round and 4 out of 16 in the final round.
    If you want suggestions for final round draws, Croatia/Mexico and Italy/Uruguay would top my list.
    The older I get the better I was.

  11. #10
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    North Wales
    Posts
    2,654
    Thanks
    362
    Thanked 420 Times in 291 Posts
    Well, the final count was 2 draws in the first 16 matches, 4 in the second 16 and 3 in the third 16. Hope you steered clear, Slim.
    The older I get the better I was.

  12. #11
    SlimChance
    Guest
    No I was just throwing the thought out there.

Similar Threads

  1. Cup Draw...
    By Desperate Dan in forum Other Sports
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 27th January 2014, 7:17 PM
  2. "Who's The Daddy" Semi Final Draw & Selections
    By Steve T in forum General Racing Topics
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 3rd May 2013, 8:28 PM
  3. "Who's The Daddy" Quarter Final Draw & Selections
    By Steve T in forum General Racing Topics
    Replies: 18
    Last Post: 3rd May 2013, 1:02 AM
  4. FA Cup Draw
    By Desperate Dan in forum Other Sports
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 25th January 2009, 7:08 PM
  5. I Was Doing Too Well On The 6 Draw At
    By Nad al Whinnie in forum General Racing Topics
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 21st December 2007, 5:02 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •