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Thread: Top Goalscorer

  1. #1
    SlimChance
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    Top Goalscorer

    Has anyone looked at this market? I've spotted three potential bets.

    Jackson Martinez 80/1
    Edison Cavani 40/1
    Fred 22/1

    .
    Last edited by SlimChance; 28th May 2014 at 10:34 AM.

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  3. #2
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    You could pick far worse than those 3, good shout.

  4. #3
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Has anyone looked at this market? I've spotted three potential bets.

    Jackson Martinez 80/1
    Edison Cavani 40/1
    Fred 22/1

    .
    You'd want Columbia and Uruguay to be progressing beyond the group stage though Slim, I realise they are top seeds but do you think it's that cut and dried ?

  5. #4
    Senior Member Hamm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Has anyone looked at this market? I've spotted three potential bets.

    Jackson Martinez 80/1
    Edison Cavani 40/1
    Fred 22/1

    .
    I posted Cavani elsewhere 2 months ago when 50s, can't remember where now.

    Fred I don't know - what if Jo is their striker?

    What about Klose at 50s?

    France's group is very soft - Benzema at 33s?

  6. #5
    Senior Member del boy's Avatar
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    A hat trick in a group stage match is going to have a big bearing on this.

    2010 there was a four way tie on 5 Goals.
    2006 Klose won it with 5.
    2002 Fat Ronaldo won it with 8.
    1998 Suker with 6.
    1994 two way tie with 6 goals.
    1990 Schillachi with 6 goals.
    1986 Lineker with 6.
    1982 Rossi with 6.

    Tournaments before that were, 6,7,10,9,4,13,11.

    So if we take the last 8 tournaments, it looks like 6 goals would be in the mix. 4 in the group stages and then a couple more along the way would do it.

    I like Argentina for the tournament, but wont be going for the obvious one in Messi. Who is the likely starter as an out and out striker for them? Higuain? 36 appearances and 21 goals. 4 goals at the last world cup, 9 goals in qualification.
    "Sometimes a horse is so far behind in a race, it actually thinks its leading...." Junior Soprano

  7. #6
    SlimChance
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    I like the three I posted as massive value e/w bets. I like Fred the least but 11/2 on him being in top 4 is really a 9/2 shot. Its marginal but its value.

    DG - The teams progress is factored into the price but as del boy says you can place in this market by getting to last 16.

  8. #7
    Senior Member Hamm's Avatar
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    What makes you think Fred is value?

  9. #8
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hamm View Post
    What makes you think Fred is value?
    The 22/1 with Skybet is the right price win only but its not right for e/w betting. Like I said he's a 9/2 shot to finish in the top 4 so 11/2 makes him marginal value. I much rather the first two on my list.

  10. #9
    Senior Member Hamm's Avatar
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    I don't see him as a 9/2 shot at all as it's not even 100% clear whether he will start.

    Cavani seem the best of the 3.

  11. #10
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hamm View Post
    I don't see him as a 9/2 shot at all as it's not even 100% clear whether he will start.

    Cavani seem the best of the 3.
    There is 387 up at 6.0 trying to back Fred to place in the top 4 on Betfair. I'm just going by the numbers. With Brazil likely to go deep he'll have the opportunities to get the goals to place. You wouldn't want to be laying 11/2 on that and the 22/1 win part is live too. Its a good bet if not a great bet but one to have on your portfolio if you're playing the market.

  12. #11
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    I've already backed Balotelli at 55.0 on Betfair.

    Italy always perform well at the big tournaments, no matter how strong a team they actually appear to have on paper. I appreciate they have a tricky group but I see them emerging at the expense of either England or Uruguay.

    They breezed through their qualifying group and Balotelli scored 5 goals in 5 games in the qualifying Campaign. He was also joint top goalscorer at Euro 2012 and imo is a man for the big occasion. He was Italy's main danger man at those Euros and he was excellent in every game. He'll be on penalties too.

    I'm against backing anyone for top goalscorer who has excess competition from his own teammates to score goals - Messi, Higuain & Aguero the best example. I see no value in any of those Argentina forwards.

  13. #12
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    You've got fancy an Argentinian as their Group games could all be turkey shoots.

    Messi 8-1
    Aguero 16-1
    Higuain 25-1
    Lavezzi 150 with Spreadbet, as low as 40's with other firms.

  14. #13
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post

    I'm against backing anyone for top goalscorer who has excess competition from his own teammates to score goals - Messi, Higuain & Aguero the best example. I see no value in any of those Argentina forwards.
    Surely the more goals a team is expected to score the more goals is likely to be distributed to your played. You don't want to relying on a one man band.

  15. #14
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    Lavezzi 150 with Spreadbet, as low as 40's with other firms.
    Good firm to have an account with but they are win only on this market which is annoying.

  16. #15
    Senior Member Hamm's Avatar
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    Lukaku 33-1/Hazard 100-1 - I can see Belgium getting a few in the group stages, does anyone know if Lukaku takes their pens or will it be Hazard? I can see both doing well and Belgium going to 2nd round/maybe 1/4 final. Hazard ranges from 40-1 with one bookies to 100-1 with another. Could be value looking beyond just the strikers.

    Reus 66-1 - Seemed to get a few in qualifying and will surely start each game. Germany just seem to be one of those teams that always perform at major tournaments, if they can cope with conditions he could be a good bet at that price.

  18. #17
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    My own betting guidelines for the World Cup are:
    1. In Europe, back a European side or a previous winner.
    2. Back a South American country or a previous winner if the tournament is in a country that has played in the Copa America.
    3. Never back against the Germans.
    4. A player who scores in one World Cup will probably score in another.

    Brazil or Argentina to win the tournament but Thomas Muller at 33/1 is a decent price for top goalscorer, particularly if, as I expect, they get through to the semis.
    The older I get the better I was.

  19. #18
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    i like edin dzeko at 90/1

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  21. #20
    SlimChance
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    I'd lay the bets of the lad that wrote it.

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