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Thread: The 'Will Win' Thread (Copy)

  1. #2521
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by an capall View Post
    It's just dawned on me that we have turned Slim's thread into a marriage/property forum for middle-aged, risk averse men.

    Revenge will be swift and bloody. I am going to the mattresses.
    I've printed off the last page of the thread. I've removed the poster of the 2002 U-17 netball national championship winners from my bathroom mirror and replaced it with said old man whining sheet. It will remind everyday not to end up like you b@stards.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Who's whining?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    I've removed the poster of the 2002 U-17 netball national championship winners from my bathroom mirror
    .........and stuck it on the ceiling above your bed

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    I dread to think what action that netball poster has seen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    January 17th
    Leopardstown Coral.ie hurdle
    Kalkir 20/1 or 16/1
    From Narrowing The Field


    Mullins may not be too crash-hot in handicap chases on this side of the Irish Sea but he knows how to nail a handicap hurdle or two, specifically the County Hurdle and the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Hurdle.

    Since 2010 he has landed three County Hurdles and three Martin Pipe Hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival. All six of those winners could be found by using the following little angle…
    Willie Mullins County Hurdle/Martin Pipe Hurdle runners | Aged 5yo or 6yo | SP 25/1 or less
    Applying those filters gives the following set of figures…
    6/17 | 35% S/R | +£75.81 BFLSP – Win & Place 12/17 | 71% S/R
    All six of his winners from only 17 qualifiers.
    There were no qualifiers in 2012 and his two qualifiers in 2013 both placed.
    The others years under scrutiny provided winners and a healthy profit.
    It’s an extremely simple angle but also extremely profitable.
    So who could be the likely candidate this year?



    Step forward 5yo KALKIR, who ran an excellent second in the Coral.ie Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday.
    It was his first run for 10 months, since pulling up in last seasons Triumph Hurdle, but the promise he showed in the early part of his juvenile campaign is clearly still there and there is every chance he will improve a bundle for this outing.
    He holds an entry for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury although that track hasn’t been the happiest hunting ground for Mullins raiders in recent seasons, with his 18 runners all finishing un-placed.
    A solid mid-division finish there for Kalkir would be the ideal prep run for a tilt at the County Hurdle (or Martin Pipe Hurdle should they fancy stepping him up in trip) and providing he isn’t strung out with the no-hopers in the betting at Cheltenham (he shouldn’t be) then he will be a snug qualifier on my Mullins County/Martin Pipe Hurdle angle.
    Even if he doesn’t end up heading to the festival he’s well worth keeping on the radar as he is surely some way better than his current mark of OR 137 (will go up for this).


    Keep Kalkir on the radar, he’s definitely got a handicap hurdle in him somewhere before seasons end…

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    To be honest Kalkir is pretty obvious without the trends. He'll almost certainly go to the County (I'm pretty sure Renetti is the number one for the Coral), and I reinvested some of what I laid back last week on both. It'd be only right and proper that he wins it anyway given Slim's legendary recent advice.

    With regards narrowingthefield's simple analysis, the profiling of horses that have won the Martin Pipe with is revealing if you use those stats and dig deeper to find the right one and as far ahead of time as practically possible. You're looking for a novice hurdler that's national hunt bred (probably a very good bumper horse last season), or equivalent previous season form from the french provinces, who looks like a quick improver, and is likely to get the right mark given this is a 0-145 handicap. It will have been campaigned extremely carefully this season so it's not properly exposed and gets the right mark for the race if it's a bumper horse. Or it's an ex-French improver with size and scope that has started from a mark that they can carefully control. You're not necessarily looking for a horse that's won yet this season, and most likely it's hurdles form is far behind what it achieved in bumpers. But it will win before the Festival, probably held up, and only doing enough to win on the line.

    Nambour is an obvious one for race at the moment based on reading form, plus what the current market says, but whilst I think it's very possible he'll contest the race, I'm not sure he's the right type or will even be the stables best chance. I wouldn't totally discount him though if he gets in light. The other one the market says is Petit Mouchoir. You can make a case for him, but I wouldn't be rushing to back him because much will depend on the handicappers reading of his run behind Long Dog when he gets a mark. A literal view would probably see him being allocated 145 or 146 plus whatever the British handicapper decides to give him in addition. It's a 0-145 so he may not get in and could end up in the Coral Cup instead. The possibility remains though that he runs like a pig next time and he allocates him 141-143 which would probably see the British handicapper then allocating him 144 or 145 for the Festival. I'll wait to see what happens because ironically his price is likely to get bigger at the same time as being sure of getting the run. None of the other Mullins horses quoted interest me because they look too exposed, but I don't discount re-visiting them.

    On the watchlist at the moment are Stone Hard and Pylonthepressure, who both have the hallmarks of already being plotted for a race like this. I'm also waiting to see the mark Up For Review gets as he is also a likely type. There are also a couple more that I'm watching out for next time who could yet emerge and fit the bill. In total though I reckon outside Nambour there are only 5 genuine possibilities that he could run in the race. Only two or three of them are really looking like they could possibly get a generous mark when compared to their bumper form though.

    Anyway in the spirit of this thread, this is long-winded way of saying I'm absolutely convinced Mullins is lining up hard to win all three races. So I'm suggesting a 'Will Win' e/w double on Kalkir for the County Hurdle (20/1) and Renetti for the Coral Cup (25/1). I've also taken single prices both win and e/w. I'll be adding the winner of the Martin Pipe Conditionals as a further single, the doubles and a treble. And just to remove any ambiguity, the 'Will Win' basis of my post is on an e/w basis, not win singles.
    Last edited by Maruco; 20th January 2016 at 12:53 PM.

  7. #2527
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    the county is a very strongly run race usually..a whole different ball game to what Kalkir faced on sunday..and he was positioned well to win on sunday

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    The other one the market says is Petit Mouchoir. You can make a case for him, but I wouldn't be rushing to back him because much will depend on the handicappers reading of his run behind Long Dog when he gets a mark. A literal view would probably see him being allocated 145 or 146 plus whatever the British handicapper decides to give him in addition. It's a 0-145 so he may not get in and could end up in the Coral Cup instead. The possibility remains though that he runs like a pig next time and he allocates him 141-143 which would probably see the British handicapper then allocating him 144 or 145 for the Festival. I'll wait to see what happens because ironically his price is likely to get bigger at the same time as being sure of getting the run. None of the other Mullins horses quoted interest me because they look too exposed, but I don't discount re-visiting them.
    Petit Mouchoir is quoted as being on 145 in the RP. He's entered in the Grade 2 at Leopardstown on Sunday. I agree that Nambour is more likely to get in. Mullins was quoted as saying that something was amiss the last time and they think they've fixed it but I doubt he'd only fire one arrow.
    The older I get the better I was.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EC1 View Post
    the county is a very strongly run race usually..a whole different ball game to what Kalkir faced on sunday..and he was positioned well to win on sunday
    It was EC, and my belief is that a strongly run race would have seen him win, so we've taken different reads from the race. I also think Willie expected a strongly run race. I also think they thought they had a horse that's much better than his mark and they expected him to win. The way the race was run absolutely suited to the winner and played to his strengths and the opposite is true of Kalkir yet he still finished second. The benefit of course is that Kalkir won't go up quite as much as he would have done for Cheltenham and he'll be better treated than they expected.

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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Petit Mouchoir is quoted as being on 145 in the RP. He's entered in the Grade 2 at Leopardstown on Sunday. I agree that Nambour is more likely to get in. Mullins was quoted as saying that something was amiss the last time and they think they've fixed it but I doubt he'd only fire one arrow.
    Sunday's run with Petit Mouchoir will make Festival intentions a little clearer. My view is he'll be out with the washing to try and convince the handicapper to give him a mark in the low 140's. If not and he runs well he won't get in and we can strike him off.

  11. #2531
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    The "Will Win" thread
    aka "Location, Location, Location"
    aka "Ante Post Betting on the Cheltenham Handicaps"

    A legendary thread, in whatever guise

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  13. #2532
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Agreed.

    I particularly like the guessing bits.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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  15. #2533
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    To be honest Kalkir is pretty obvious without the trends. He'll almost certainly go to the County (I'm pretty sure Renetti is the number one for the Coral), and I reinvested some of what I laid back last week on both. It'd be only right and proper that he wins it anyway given Slim's legendary recent advice.

    With regards narrowingthefield's simple analysis, the profiling of horses that have won the Martin Pipe with is revealing if you use those stats and dig deeper to find the right one and as far ahead of time as practically possible. You're looking for a novice hurdler that's national hunt bred (probably a very good bumper horse last season), or equivalent previous season form from the french provinces, who looks like a quick improver, and is likely to get the right mark given this is a 0-145 handicap. It will have been campaigned extremely carefully this season so it's not properly exposed and gets the right mark for the race if it's a bumper horse. Or it's an ex-French improver with size and scope that has started from a mark that they can carefully control. You're not necessarily looking for a horse that's won yet this season, and most likely it's hurdles form is far behind what it achieved in bumpers. But it will win before the Festival, probably held up, and only doing enough to win on the line.

    Nambour is an obvious one for race at the moment based on reading form, plus what the current market says, but whilst I think it's very possible he'll contest the race, I'm not sure he's the right type or will even be the stables best chance. I wouldn't totally discount him though if he gets in light. The other one the market says is Petit Mouchoir. You can make a case for him, but I wouldn't be rushing to back him because much will depend on the handicappers reading of his run behind Long Dog when he gets a mark. A literal view would probably see him being allocated 145 or 146 plus whatever the British handicapper decides to give him in addition. It's a 0-145 so he may not get in and could end up in the Coral Cup instead. The possibility remains though that he runs like a pig next time and he allocates him 141-143 which would probably see the British handicapper then allocating him 144 or 145 for the Festival. I'll wait to see what happens because ironically his price is likely to get bigger at the same time as being sure of getting the run. None of the other Mullins horses quoted interest me because they look too exposed, but I don't discount re-visiting them.

    On the watchlist at the moment are Stone Hard and Pylonthepressure, who both have the hallmarks of already being plotted for a race like this. I'm also waiting to see the mark Up For Review gets as he is also a likely type. There are also a couple more that I'm watching out for next time who could yet emerge and fit the bill. In total though I reckon outside Nambour there are only 5 genuine possibilities that he could run in the race. Only two or three of them are really looking like they could possibly get a generous mark when compared to their bumper form though.

    Anyway in the spirit of this thread, this is long-winded way of saying I'm absolutely convinced Mullins is lining up hard to win all three races. So I'm suggesting a 'Will Win' e/w double on Kalkir for the County Hurdle (20/1) and Renetti for the Coral Cup (25/1). I've also taken single prices both win and e/w. I'll be adding the winner of the Martin Pipe Conditionals as a further single, the doubles and a treble. And just to remove any ambiguity, the 'Will Win' basis of my post is on an e/w basis, not win singles.
    Your reading of situations is very close to my brother's.

    However, I think Sunday was Kalkir's big day and his County horse, if it ran there, will have been down the park.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  16. #2534
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Agreed.

    I particularly like the guessing bits.
    I realised it was highly likely I'd get this kind of response, and a lot more. I can't wait for Slim to post after I put this on his thread.

    I stand by every word for the bets suggested though.
    Last edited by Maruco; 20th January 2016 at 2:21 PM.

  17. #2535
    SlimChance
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    Gowran Park 3.45
    Marinero

    Goeran Park 4.15
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    Will Win e/w double.

    If anyone posts any bollocks complaining about e/w bets than I'm not posting during the flat season.
    Last edited by SlimChance; 21st January 2016 at 3:30 PM.

  18. #2536
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Gowran Park 3.45
    Marinero

    Goeran Park 4.15
    New Kid In Town

    Will Win e/w double.

    If anyone posts any bollocks complaining about e/w bets than I'm not posting during the flat season.
    Nobody posts during the flat season anyway. ;-)

  19. #2537
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Digger View Post
    Nobody posts during the flat season anyway. ;-)
    Funny how hedge jumping muppets like you have been unable to post a winter winner on here in three years.

  20. #2538
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Funny how hedge jumping muppets like you have been unable to post a winter winner on here in three years.
    I thought this was your thread? Scotty T to win Celeb BB.

  21. #2539
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    That's one of the most blatant non triers I've ever seen.

  22. #2540
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    Handicap mark will be interesting.
    The older I get the better I was.

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