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Thread: Cheltenham 2015

  1. #41
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    TNO was outpaced regardless, and only came into the finish when others had run their race. He's no laydown for the sharp 2.5m at Aintree either, as illustrated when beaten by Zarkandar last year, who's no noted speedball himself.
    MTOY might just go chasing next season and would be an absolute stone-jugger for the Arkle, where his propensity to pull wouldn't be nearly the same problem.
    Last edited by reet hard; 15th March 2014 at 12:18 PM.

  2. #42
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    I keep reading that Hurricane Fly is now too old ..but how is that possible when just a few days ago...he had beaten the main rivals this season...trainer said he was better than ever..improving even

    He has run one below par race probablyon ground too quick for him...but that makes him too old

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    He will take beating at punchestown if ground comes up soft sure he is 10 but lightly raced

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    Quote Originally Posted by EC1 View Post
    I keep reading that Hurricane Fly is now too old ..but how is that possible when just a few days ago...he had beaten the main rivals this season...trainer said he was better than ever..improving even

    He has run one below par race probablyon ground too quick for him...but that makes him too old
    i think there's strong evidence now he just doesn't run right up to his mark at cheltenham. and it's to his credit he's won two champion hurdles there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JamesRB View Post
    i think there's strong evidence now he just doesn't run right up to his mark at cheltenham. and it's to his credit he's won two champion hurdles there.
    tend to agree...the age thing is a nonsense imo...unless he's slowed down quite a lot in 7 days

    this years field was a strong one...the ground would have not really been to his strengths

    when he wins again...i wonder if he will suddenly be deemed young again

  6. #46
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    I'd much rather we had a constructive thread on something relevant.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    I'd much rather we had a constructive thread on something relevant.
    what would you like?..horse racing?

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    Quote Originally Posted by clivex View Post
    I don't agree with that. It's not just being knocked back a couple of lengths (sam reckoned 6) but the loss of momentum and all that goes with it.

    Yes in a slow run small field it won't always be critical but that is far from 99 % of races.

    Put it this way... 99% of the time When you see interference like that to your horse, you do not give it a moments thought?

    I'm not just following my money here but I seriously think that it was some achievement for this horse to get where he did
    I think you are agreeing with me. Its not the 2l distance that he lost that mattered. It meant that to recover that distance into a position he was happy with, he would have had to use too much energy in a fast run championship race too early. Consequently he was a a length or two farther from the leaders coming down the hill, too much to make up into the final 2f. He would probably have been outpaced regardless when the pace picked up, but might have been in a position to guard against it bar for the interference. Im not sure he can be seen as the moral winner though.

  9. #49
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    In some respects Hurricane Fly is like Kauto Star. Neither were at their very best at Cheltenham but they both had the class to win multiple times regardless. True Champions both, but Hurricane Fly has never quite been given the respect he deserves as the true champion he is.

  10. #50
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    #quevaga

  11. #51
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    The New One- Champion Hdle
    Sire Des Gruges- QM Chase
    Annie Power- Arkle
    Vautour- RSA
    Faugheen- JLT
    More of That- World Hdle.
    Dynaste- Gold Cup

  12. #52
    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    I also availed myself of a decent ew bet at 20/1 for Champagne Fever
    to win the Gold Cup. Nowt wrong with his jumping, indeed seems very efficient .Can lob along at a good pace, highly likely to stay and has tremendous attitude.
    I also think Jezki can win the 2015 Champion Hurdle. Those that are dismissing his win this year are those that said he had no chance in such a quality field.
    Normally I would back both horses in singles and a double. Unfortunately bookmakers will not accept the proviso- only if ridden by Geraghty -applied to a bet on Jezki.
    Last edited by Tout Seul; 17th March 2014 at 9:55 PM.

  13. #53
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    Vote Alfie!!!!

  14. #54
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Took 50/1 Holywell for the Gold Cup. My Cheltenham rating for him is better than the ones I have for Taquin Du Seuil (25/1, non-stayer?) and O'Faolin's Boy (16/1). At the rate he's improving, he's likely to overtake Champagne Fever (14/1), Lord Windermere (12/1) and Western Warhorse (33/1).

    If Ballynagour stays the trip he'd be a bigger danger but he's not quoted.

    They have a year to iron out Holywell's jumping.
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  15. #55
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    I had the same thought yesterday, when I read the post about Jonjo for Champion Trainer.

    I think he has two very likely GC candidates in his yard.

  16. #56
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    50s Holywell is a very fair price.

  17. #57
    Senior Member Maxbet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Took 50/1 Holywell for the Gold Cup. My Cheltenham rating for him is better than the ones I have for Taquin Du Seuil (25/1, non-stayer?) and O'Faolin's Boy (16/1). At the rate he's improving, he's likely to overtake Champagne Fever (14/1), Lord Windermere (12/1) and Western Warhorse (33/1).

    If Ballynagour stays the trip he'd be a bigger danger but he's not quoted.

    They have a year to iron out Holywell's jumping.



    Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

    1. Holywell>>>>Up 12lb to 157

    Holywell racked up his second consecutive win at the Festival and such was the manner of his victory he was whacked up 12lb to 157 - the best rating for a staying novice chaser all week. Jonjo O'Neill's charge didn't even jump that well, but he was so well handicapped he sprinted up the hill like he'd just joined in for the final quarter of a mile (he was another one with fresh headgear on, the cheekpieces being replaced by blinkers). According to the ratings he's only 8lb off what was the required standard to win this year's Gold Cup, he's 1lb better than Grade One RSA winner O'Faolains Boy and 2lb better than stablemate and Grade One JLT winner Taquin De Seuil. If you agree with such ratings, the 50/1 available about him for the 2015 Gold Cup looks huge. And, remember, he did beat Smad Place over hurdles when second to Solwhit in last year's Liverpool Hurdle. Yet after three completed starts over fences, including one victory, BHA head of handicapping Phil Smith couldn't even bring himself to give him a mark. He told sportinglife.com: "After three runs I refused to rate him. But when he'd run a fourth time, having had four qualification runs and won two of them, I felt I'd got to give him a rating. At that point, you have to discard the hurdle rating, so the decision for me was to go either 145 or 146, the latter rating of which would have disqualified him from the Kim Muir. I let him in the Kim Muir and that was my call at that point. With hindsight, I suppose I wish I hadn't had him in that race. It would have been interesting to see how he would have got on in the other handicap. There was a Pipe horse who was second to him [Shotavodka at Catterick] and I went through him and that's why we got him to 145. The irony is that Jonjo was critical of the rating. He was one of only two people with horses in that race who contacted me beforehand to tell me he was too high. But I imagine he's pleased he was wrong now."
    Last edited by Maxbet; 21st March 2014 at 12:29 PM.

  18. #58
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Good shout. Can't have TDS at all. He was iffy at a number of fences and the JLT very much fell his way.

    Although he's becoming a cliff horse for me now Al Ferof I've not given up on. He stumbled early doors in the Ryanair and if that is when he struck into himself he's run a cracker.

    Josses Hill reminds me a little of Sprinter Sacre and not just because Barry chose a stablemate in the Supreme. He skied most of his hurdles and heading to the last he draws the eye as easily the most robust looking individual in the race, a little like SS did in the same race in 2011. I think 12s for the Arkle is fair.

  19. #59
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxbet View Post
    Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

    1. Holywell>>>>Up 12lb to 157

    Holywell racked up his second consecutive win at the Festival and such was the manner of his victory he was whacked up 12lb to 157 - the best rating for a staying novice chaser all week. Jonjo O'Neill's charge didn't even jump that well, but he was so well handicapped he sprinted up the hill like he'd just joined in for the final quarter of a mile (he was another one with fresh headgear on, the cheekpieces being replaced by blinkers). According to the ratings he's only 8lb off what was the required standard to win this year's Gold Cup, he's 1lb better than Grade One RSA winner O'Faolains Boy and 2lb better than stablemate and Grade One JLT winner Taquin De Seuil. If you agree with such ratings, the 50/1 available about him for the 2015 Gold Cup looks huge. And, remember, he did beat Smad Place over hurdles when second to Solwhit in last year's Liverpool Hurdle. Yet after three completed starts over fences, including one victory, BHA head of handicapping Phil Smith couldn't even bring himself to give him a mark. He told sportinglife.com: "After three runs I refused to rate him. But when he'd run a fourth time, having had four qualification runs and won two of them, I felt I'd got to give him a rating. At that point, you have to discard the hurdle rating, so the decision for me was to go either 145 or 146, the latter rating of which would have disqualified him from the Kim Muir. I let him in the Kim Muir and that was my call at that point. With hindsight, I suppose I wish I hadn't had him in that race. It would have been interesting to see how he would have got on in the other handicap. There was a Pipe horse who was second to him [Shotavodka at Catterick] and I went through him and that's why we got him to 145. The irony is that Jonjo was critical of the rating. He was one of only two people with horses in that race who contacted me beforehand to tell me he was too high. But I imagine he's pleased he was wrong now."
    Thanks for this, Maxbet. It's nice to see others on a similar wavelength. Can I ask where the quote came from?
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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