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Thread: The 'can't win BUT' thread

  1. #1
    SlimChance
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    The 'can't win BUT' thread

    Following on from my diversion on the 'will win' thread to bets of a more mathematically based premise, this is a thread for bets based on pure logic.

    If you're thinking of posting opinion on here I suggest you stop wasting your time now and get off my fuckung thread. I want bets where you show your work and prove logically that it's value. By doing so perhaps us and readers of the forum can all learn something.

    I'll be digging far and wide for anything I consider and can show is overpriced or value be it win or e/w. Any questions on the ligic of any bet I post, please ask.
    Last edited by SlimChance; 5th March 2014 at 10:26 PM.

  2. #2
    baracouda
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    I 'can't wait' for your first post. I'm armed with cash and want more easy money.

  3. #3
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by baracouda View Post
    I 'can't wait' for your first post. I'm armed with cash and want more easy money.
    Logic dictates that you're a ******* idiot and should be ignored for the purpose of this thread.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Should have called it:

    I Can't Believe It's Not Better.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  5. #5
    SlimChance
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Should have called it:

    I Can't Believe It's Not Better.

  6. #6
    baracouda
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    Feck you SlimChance. I'm no fool YOU'RE A PRIMA DONNA AND A HUFFY DAISY.

  7. #7
    baracouda
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    Who wants a small return any way. Giggs is much the better man to follow. You're ignored by me .Big head.
    Last edited by baracouda; 7th March 2014 at 8:24 AM.

  8. #8
    baracouda
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    Following on from my diversion on the 'will win' thread to bets of a more mathematically based premise, this is a thread for bets based on pure logic.

    If you're thinking of posting opinion on here I suggest you stop wasting your time now and get off my fuckung thread. I want bets where you show your work and prove logically that it's value. By doing so perhaps us and readers of the forum can all learn something.

    I'll be digging far and wide for anything I consider and can show is overpriced or value be it win or e/w. Any questions on the ligic of any bet I post, please ask.
    Not Interested.

  9. #9
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Shotgun Paddy in the 4-miler.

    Already rated 152, he would be much worse-off if this was a handicap, and he is well clear (with a couple of others) on ORs. He jumps soundly-enough for a novice, has no stamina concerns, and with Foxrock hoovering-up a lot of hype/preview/old-country money - and with Holywell perhaps more likely to run in the 3-mile handicap - he is a tidy price at 7/1 (when he should be close to favouritism, in my view)
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  10. #10
    SlimChance
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    He's on the drift on the machine the last week which really surprised me.

  11. #11
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Shotgun Paddy has a few to contend with.

    Corrin Wood, Black Thunder and Ballycasey have higher ORs although I've no idea about running plans for any of them and SP's form is in handicaps, which I'm not sure is a positive.

    Right now I'd be looking to Corrin Wood if he runs here rather than in the RSA.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  12. #12
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    He deffo runs in the RSA according to McCain on the Betfair preview.

  13. #13
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Cheers, euro. Just checked the odds and they're confirming that.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  14. #14
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    Shotgun Paddy has a few to contend with.

    Corrin Wood, Black Thunder and Ballycasey have higher ORs although I've no idea about running plans for any of them and SP's form is in handicaps, which I'm not sure is a positive.

    Right now I'd be looking to Corrin Wood if he runs here rather than in the RSA.
    Natch, I'd factored-in that none of the above are likely to take their chance.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  15. #15
    SlimChance
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    Thankfully the decs are tomorrow so we'll Al know what runs in what on Tuesday.

  16. #16
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Nicholls is trying to persuade the owners of black thunder to run in the 4 miler he also said the horse needs soft ground.

  17. #17
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    black thunder runs in RSA according to nicholls at sandown tonight

  18. #18
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Changed his mind since the Betfair preview then!

  19. #19
    SlimChance
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    Skybet seem to be completely overrating Quevega's winning distance in the mares hurdle.

    11/2 Up to & inc. 2 lengths
    11/2 Up to & inc. 4 lengths
    11/2 Up to & inc. 6 lengths
    7/2 7 lengths or more

    The 7/2 looks far too short. She's surely far less than 22% to win by 7 or more. I like dutching 0-4 at 9/4 but you can dutch 0-6 if you believe she is bigger than 5/1 to win by 7 or more.
    Last edited by SlimChance; 9th March 2014 at 3:05 PM.

  20. #20
    baracouda
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    I don't think that she will win. Cockney Sparrow for me with AP-The Champion Jockey on board.

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