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Thread: The 2024 Longshot Thread

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    The 2024 Longshot Thread

    Selections here, please.

    I expect to be a lot quieter this year but hope to contribute as and when.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Marb (6th January 2024)

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    Wolverhampton

    6.00 Smart Champion has just turned nine years of age. He has ran 36 times in his career, so averaging out at about 5 runs per year, as he's been in training for about 7 years. He hasn't been overaced by any means, and is a horse who placed in the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot, while also placing at Glorious Goodwood in 2020. He's scored twice on the all weather, so can handle the conditions, and now on this career low mark of 68, I hope the horse can out run odds of 25/1 or thereabouts, and Hayley Turner can come with a thundering late run to land the spoils. Maybe I aiming for the stars, so to speak, and might end up somewhere near the clouds, and if he ran well and got placed that would at least justify my belief he is well handicapped. Let's see.
    Last edited by Marb; 6th January 2024 at 10:37 PM.

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    Desert Orchid (7th January 2024)

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    Desert illusion 830S 66/1 betfair.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Desert illusion 830S 66/1 betfair.
    We backed him in a race last summer, Outsider, If memory serves me correctly. Has since left Ismail Mohammed and moved to Andi Brown (for £1000). Not a great sign, but maybe Andi has found the key.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chaumi View Post
    We backed him in a race last summer, Outsider, If memory serves me correctly. Has since left Ismail Mohammed and moved to Andi Brown (for £1000). Not a great sign, but maybe Andi has found the key.
    Hewick was only 800 lol.i just thought dropping to short of 5f might lead all the way.
    But that's why its 66s chaum.

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    chaumi (9th January 2024)

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    Touched 250/1 now 150/1 lol.

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    Blackpool beach monday morning.

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    there might be another day in a weak (weaker than usual) low grade Class 6...it'll be a bit of an achievement on our part to identify it pre-race, though!

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    Outsider (10th January 2024)

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    Down to 75 pence in my betting account so need to get a big priced winner ( haven’t had the time to study the racing and pin sticking obviously doesn’t work. I’m going to back Marc Goldsteins rides. Noticed on TRP that if you back his horses blind you’d be in profit and I always back Sheena’s horses. Had a rare outside ride just now which finished 4th at 150/1 but at one point it seemed to look booked for a place. I’ve got a free £1 bet that I can’t use as I have to add £1 myself and I haven’t got that much in my account. I’ll have to put some money into my account soon but my original £20 has lasted me for years with loads of bets.

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    Maybe Sheena's Zyra's Lioness, Mo. Seems to be on a lengthyish break right now, but - assuming still sound - we'll possibly get 100-1 in a class 5 handicap at some point. Sheena often gets a run out of a Sixties Icon somewhere down the line.

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    I missed Mr Freedom ( my current favourite horse) placing the other day and Adam Nicols Purple Gown came 4th at a good price yesterday but it was only first three.I’m quite enjoying watching the Saturday racing without having many bets. Hoping that, having taken a bit of time out I might get some beginners luck when I do restart. In time for Cheltenham perhaps!

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I've taken 50/1 Carbon King in the 2.24 at Warwick. I allow a notional 10lbs when a hurdler takes to fences and if his career high OR of 133 was accurate and he can improve that much he wouldn't have too much to find to get on terms with the favourites. Only two places, though, which is a bit of a bummer but, hey, what the hell...
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Kempton

    1.30 - Minella Trump still 20/1 with one firm.

    He's dropped another 5lbs for the last run, so now on 140. I'll keep the faith that Minella can turn his form around.
    Last edited by Marb; 12th January 2024 at 10:12 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marb View Post
    Kempton

    1.30 - Minella Trump still 20/1 with one firm.

    He's dropped another 5lbs for the last run, so now on 140. I'll keep the faith that Minella can turn his form around.
    I have to be with you on this considering he beat Hewick only getting 3lb and beat corach rambler giving it 4lb.

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    Marb (13th January 2024)

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    Big risk I know but I'm taking a chance on TEDDY BLUE in the Lanzarote at 40/1 6places.
    Blinkers first time or cheekpieces and a big step up in trip.who knows with Gary Moore.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Big risk I know but I'm taking a chance on TEDDY BLUE in the Lanzarote at 40/1 6places.
    Blinkers first time or cheekpieces and a big step up in trip.who knows with Gary Moore.
    Took me a while to decide against it but can't help thinking the trainer is working towards getting a strong team sorted for the Schweppes.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I've taken 50/1 Carbon King in the 2.24 at Warwick. I allow a notional 10lbs when a hurdler takes to fences and if his career high OR of 133 was accurate and he can improve that much he wouldn't have too much to find to get on terms with the favourites. Only two places, though, which is a bit of a bummer but, hey, what the hell...
    Embarrassing stuff... apologies.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Big risk I know but I'm taking a chance on TEDDY BLUE in the Lanzarote at 40/1 6places.
    Blinkers first time or cheekpieces and a big step up in trip.who knows with Gary Moore.
    6th

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Outsider View Post
    Big risk I know but I'm taking a chance on TEDDY BLUE in the Lanzarote at 40/1 6places.
    Blinkers first time or cheekpieces and a big step up in trip.who knows with Gary Moore.
    Who knows with Skelton?? I can't see anything at all in Jay Jay Reilly's back form to suggest it had a race like that in it.

    I wonder if they were confident Teddy Blue wouldn't stay. Ridden cold he picked them off effortlessly from some way out and I was starting to cheer him on for you when he apparently hit the wall. Smashing prep for Newbury, though.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Jay Jay Reilly was top rated on the WHill site. Thankfully, having topped my account up (I was down to 26 pence) I backed Teddy Blue ( thanks Outsider), another one that was placed and Jay Jay Reilly (last second bet that one).

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    chaumi (13th January 2024), Desert Orchid (13th January 2024), Outsider (13th January 2024)

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