Results 1 to 15 of 15

Thread: Stats, odds,value

  1. #1
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Posts
    3,399
    Thanks
    995
    Thanked 1,221 Times in 924 Posts
    Blog Entries
    161

    Stats, odds,value

    Just for the sake of it I have recorded what happened to horses with sp odds 5/1 through 10/1 (whole numbers) for a full week’s racing in UK and Ireland. Not a massive sample, I know, but are they just interesting stats or do they actually tell us anything (other than that bookies come out smiling, of course).

    SP Runners Losers Winners Odds (rounded)

    5/1 69 64 5 13/1
    6/1 62 55 7 8/1
    7/1 64 59 5 12/1
    8/1 73 67 6 11/1
    9/1 73 66 7 9/1
    10/1 67 63 4 16/1

    Sorry, can’t seem to edit it to put numbers properly under the headings, but I hope you get the drift.
    Last edited by barjon; 28th May 2022 at 8:50 AM.

  2. #2
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    Tells you absolutely nothing.

  3. The Following User Says Thank You to Slim For This Useful Post:

    barjon (28th May 2022)

  4. #3
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Posts
    3,399
    Thanks
    995
    Thanked 1,221 Times in 924 Posts
    Blog Entries
    161
    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Tells you absolutely nothing.
    Just what I thought

  5. #4
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    The Shire
    Posts
    4,748
    Thanks
    262
    Thanked 930 Times in 580 Posts
    It does. It tells you that if you're a guesser you lose.

  6. #5
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Posts
    3,399
    Thanks
    995
    Thanked 1,221 Times in 924 Posts
    Blog Entries
    161
    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    It does. It tells you that if you're a guesser you lose.
    Er, what’s guessing about it? Doesn’t “value” betting rely on horses running to their “true” odds. So the difference between the Sp odds and the true odds as exampled by the results (albeit too small a sample) either shows that to be doubtful or that bookmakers were massively underpricing.
    Last edited by barjon; 28th May 2022 at 11:57 AM.

  7. #6
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    Er, what’s guessing about it? Doesn’t “value” betting rely on horses running to their “true” odds. So the difference between the Sp odds and the true odds as exampled by the results (albeit too small a sample) either shows that to be doubtful or that bookmakers were massively underpricing.
    If you were to get a large set of data of BSP you'd find that it's a pretty smooth curve with the implied chance. I really wouldn't over think these things.
    Last edited by Slim; 28th May 2022 at 12:31 PM.

  8. #7
    Moderator
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    The Shire
    Posts
    4,748
    Thanks
    262
    Thanked 930 Times in 580 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    Er, what’s guessing about it? Doesn’t “value” betting rely on horses running to their “true” odds. So the difference between the Sp odds and the true odds as exampled by the results (albeit too small a sample) either shows that to be doubtful or that bookmakers were massively underpricing.
    It was a flippant way of saying that the chances of winning at a range of odds from 5/1 to 10/1 is much worse than the actual odds, so by default if you don't don't have a strategy to beat those odds you'll be a loser.

    It's the same as my last answer to Reet. Profitable punters who that claim that value is irrelevant and don't seek it is untrue. They do, they just have a method where it doesn't enter their thought process, but in reality what they are backing is value, and that's why they stay ahead.

  9. #8
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Posts
    3,399
    Thanks
    995
    Thanked 1,221 Times in 924 Posts
    Blog Entries
    161
    If horse racing was a mechanical, repeatable sport then that would be right. In a coin toss, for example, the “true” odds are evens and you would snap up 6/4 because it is good value and you would be certain to profit over time. Races, though, are not mechanical, repeatable events and arriving at the “true” odds for a horse given the multitude of variable factors seems to me an extremely hazardous journey. Without establishing those true odds with some accuracy how can one move to the next step of deciding whether the offered odds represent good or bad value?

    What we do know with more certainty, however, is that the winner’s price must represent good value so it makes sense to me to concentrate on trying to find the winner, rather than trying to determine (wild guess in my case) which horse represents best value.
    Last edited by barjon; 28th May 2022 at 1:30 PM.

  10. #9
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    23,659
    Thanks
    2,930
    Thanked 3,482 Times in 2,742 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    If horse racing was a mechanical, repeatable sport then that would be right. In a coin toss, for example, the “true” odds are evens and you would snap up 6/4 because it is good value and you would be certain to profit over time. Races, though, are not mechanical, repeatable events and arriving at the “true” odds for a horse given the multitude of variable factors seems to me an extremely hazardous journey. Without establishing those true odds with some accuracy how can one move to the next step of deciding whether the offered odds represent good or bad value?

    What we do know with more certainty, however, is that the winner’s price must represent good value so it makes sense to me to concentrate on trying to find the winner, rather than trying to determine (wild guess in my case) which horse represents best value.
    Races are decided on ability, readiness and luck on the day.

    Leaving aside luck in running, which cannot be determined, the best horse [or the best horse at the weights] is the most likely to win so it boils down to figuring out which horse is the best, then trying to figure out if 'today is the day'.

    The market will be a big help in the latter but a sound approach to assessing ability is crucial. Nobody gets it right all the time and there are plenty of judges on here whose evaluations I totally respect - even the ones I have on ignore (I can see what they're saying if someone quotes them in a reply) or choose not to read (in the case of midweek lower-class fare which doesn't interest me - while maybe arriving a different assessment of the race.

    I very often find myself top rating one that has me thinking, "That one should win but I fear x, y and z too much to want to back it at that price."

    I don't mind when those unbacked ones win. They confirm that my assessment of their ability was correct but I would see it as taking odds-on on the toss of a coin, and I'd never do that.

    For me, if it works for you it works for you.

    If you're losing some part of your assessment is getting it wrong.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  11. The Following User Says Thank You to Desert Orchid For This Useful Post:

    barjon (28th May 2022)

  12. #10
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    Without establishing those true odds with some accuracy how can one move to the next step of deciding whether the offered odds represent good or bad value?
    Experience. Skill. Hard work.

  13. The Following User Says Thank You to Slim For This Useful Post:

    barjon (28th May 2022)

  14. #11
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    What we do know with more certainty, however, is that the winner’s price must represent good value so it makes sense to me to concentrate on trying to find the winner, rather than trying to determine (wild guess in my case) which horse represents best value.
    The two don't need to be exclusive. I often see horses that I know will shoten that I still wouldn't bet. Do whatever suits you.

  15. The Following User Says Thank You to Slim For This Useful Post:

    barjon (28th May 2022)

  16. #12
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Posts
    3,399
    Thanks
    995
    Thanked 1,221 Times in 924 Posts
    Blog Entries
    161
    Nice, desert. I tend to come in from “ready to win” side since I’m concentrating on those in my tracker first and foremost.

  17. #13
    Senior Member barjon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2020
    Posts
    3,399
    Thanks
    995
    Thanked 1,221 Times in 924 Posts
    Blog Entries
    161
    Quote Originally Posted by Slim View Post
    Experience. Skill. Hard work.
    Indeed. I also appreciate that operating as a business much relies on risk/reward analysis in the long term.

  18. #14
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Posts
    2,597
    Thanks
    568
    Thanked 680 Times in 472 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    Indeed. I also appreciate that operating as a business much relies on risk/reward analysis in the long term.
    It's like anything in life, with enough experience you can calculate something without needing to calculate it.

  19. #15
    Senior Member walsworth's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    North Herts
    Posts
    1,538
    Thanks
    1
    Thanked 64 Times in 49 Posts
    @barjon
    Sorry, can’t seem to edit it to put numbers properly under the headings, but I hope you get the drift.
    Try this: http://theenemy.dk/table/
    Last edited by walsworth; 30th May 2022 at 12:45 PM.
    I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
    Take a bow for the new revolution

  20. The Following User Says Thank You to walsworth For This Useful Post:

    barjon (29th May 2022)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •