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Thread: Nevison

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    Senior Member Bar the Bull's Avatar
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    Article from the Guardian below. Very interesting.

    'I watched in awe as Dave collected'

    Wednesday February 16, 2005

    After the first race at Plumpton on Monday, I was all for chucking in my job. I was at the course with Dave Nevison, ace punter, the faces' "face", and he had just turned the 2.00 race, a low-grade hurdle, into a punting procession, pocketing £1,850. He had made more in four minutes than I could make in a fortnight, and all without the inconvenience of tax and National Insurance.

    I watched in awe as Dave collected. Now all I had to do was untangle how he had done it, with a dizzying range of bets placed moments before the start: £600 on Absolut Power at 7-2, £300 on Harrycat at 3-1, £300 on Mr Dinglawi at 5-1, and a spread bet involving Mr Dinglawi to beat Caspian Dusk, placings irrelevant, each length worth £100 either way, maximum win £1,250.

    Mr Dinglawi won the race by a neck, Absolut Power was third, Harrycat nowhere. Best of all for Nevison, Caspian Dusk - bred, as he had noticed, from a sprinter - was a furlong behind. In about seven seconds - "faces" are noted, above all, for their formidable mathematical brains and unappealing anoraks - he had worked out he was £1,850 to the good.

    I had learned my first lesson. The pro, at least this pro, is not looking to pick the winner; he's looking to make a profit. If anything, his "tip" for the race had been Harrycat, which never featured. But more important was taking the prices he thought represented "value". He was playing a statistical game. Brilliantly.

    I jotted down plenty of other lessons as we rushed from parade ring to betting ring: most information is disinformation; if a stable is telling you something, ask yourself why; don't vary the size of your bet according to the price; when someone gives you a tip, study the quality of their shoes; you're never betting with the bookies' money, you're always betting with your own; people forever complaining that they should have had more on are exactly that - morons; if you do what everybody else is doing, you'll go skint. And a disconcerting final rule: there are no rules; every race is different.

    Nevison has been a professional punter since 1993 when he lost his job as a currency trader in the City. He took his redundancy money to the track (never start, he says, with less than £50,000 in disposable cash) and has done very well. Large house, built to his own specification, in Sevenoaks; four children at private schools; six-figure income.

    Some of that comes from journalism - he writes a column for the weekly Racing and Football Outlook paper, a diary in Scotland's Daily Record, and has a tipping line - but most comes from punting.

    The 2.30 at Plumpton goes just as well for Nevison: £600 on the favourite Caballe at various prices wins £1,120. He's almost three grand up after half an hour. "Go home now" I suggest. He looks at me as if I'm mad. "There's no such thing as the last race," he says.

    Nevison is 43 and has been obsessed - his word - by racing since he was four. "It's the only thing I've ever been interested in and the only thing I know anything about. My grandad loved the races. He did all his money all his life, couldn't win, but he loved it, and I loved him and that was that, I was hooked."

    He wanted to work in racing but the wages were too low, so instead he worked in the City for 10 years. "I loathed it and when I was made redundant I decided to try my luck on the racecourse. I've been there ever since."

    At first he would try to isolate one or two "good things" on the card but, as he says: "I found that was OK as long as the two bets won, but if you're at Sedgefield from Kent and it's freezing cold, snowing, and you've had two grand on a 5-2 shot in the first race that's got beat, you don't half feel a long way from home.

    "I thought 'This is a complete waste of time, there's another five races here', so I started pricing up races - reverse bookmaking. I put a price by every horse and horses that are bigger in price I will bet. That can lead to you betting four or five horses in a race if you've got a strong view and your view is skewed to the market."

    Nevison goes racing every day except Sunday, part of that odd travelling caravan of professional punters - male, largely middle-aged, many just scraping a living.

    "Some must win £200 a week" he says. "It's freezing in December and going to Fontwell in the rain for 200 quid a week? Why not go to Tesco and stack shelves? They think they're cocking two fingers up at the system - but are they, or are they sad gits? They just roll on from racecourse to racecourse being skint."

    The rest of the day - cold, exhausting and involving the handing over of carefully folded £20 notes - makes me revise my view about forgoing my salary. Nevison loses £500 on the 3.00, is level on the 3.30 (a six-length win in a match compensates for his bet falling), but then disaster: Capitana pulling up in the 4.00 costs him £1,700. Another £400 goes west in the 4.30, leaving him with £370.

    I would want to court-martial Capitana, but Nevison is philosophical. "I'm happy enough getting £370 out of that card. I'm just glad to win. I can keep body and soul together on £370 a day."

    Resilience is the key. Nevison has seen several bets of £10,000 go down, lost £20,000 in a single day and had a deficit of £29,000 on the all-weather last month, but here he is suggesting a post-races beer (he never drinks during racing - another tip).

    "I've had losing runs that you just wouldn't believe" he says. "I've experienced everything short of an aeroplane falling out of the sky and landing on your horse just as it's about to go past the winning post. I even had a horse knocked over by a cow.

    "You cannot imagine what can go wrong when it's going wrong. But I've never thought about giving it up. What would I do? I want to drop dead on the racecourse."
    Welsh and Proud.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Tout Seul's Avatar
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    Good read.

  3. #3
    Gearoid
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    He gets slated a lot but I enjoy his column in the R&F Outllook.

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    A very interesting read, cheers, Barry.

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    interesting that he doesnt stick by the supposed pro punters golden rule of discipline. the Bookies have to bet in every race, the punter doesnt.
    I went swimming in the Caribbean. Animals were hiding behind rocks

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    interesting that he doesnt stick by the supposed pro punters golden rule of discipline. the Bookies have to bet in every race, the punter doesnt.
    He is disciplined in that he will only bet where he feels he has an edge. It just so happens that his tissue gives him what he belives to be an edge in probably every race, every day.

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    Senior Member Honest Tom's Avatar
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    Originally posted by Homer J@Feb 16 2005, 03:29 PM
    He is disciplined in that he will only bet where he feels he has an edge. It just so happens that his tissue gives him what he belives to be an edge in probably every race, every day.
    That sounds more like me Homer although I could never do it without the computer generated tissue. I think DN tends to concentrate more on the meeting he's attending, maybe having the odd away bet where one he's been watching out for is running.
    A curmudgeon barely alive

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    Senior Member Steve T's Avatar
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    Interesting that he bets on course when greater odds are likely to be available on the exchanges, even if he want a few quid on he would surely match his on course price on the exchanges?

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    Senior Member krizon's Avatar
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    Yeah, yeah, but did he have the big house built when he was a City trader?
    Power is good. Control is better. (Lenin)

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    Senior Member Shadow Leader's Avatar
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    Originally posted by Steve T@Feb 16 2005, 07:22 PM
    Interesting that he bets on course when greater odds are likely to be available on the exchanges, even if he want a few quid on he would surely match his on course price on the exchanges?
    That's not necessarily always the case now, Steve. Apart form anything else you have to factor the commission charges into the equation too. Admittedly if you'r eturning over large amounts of cash on Betfair you will have a lower commission rate but your turnover has to be maintained or you will get raised bak cto a higher commission level.

    To be honest, the real value to be had with the exchanges now is in ante post races; when it comes to daily races the prices tend to be pretty much on a par with the bookmaker's odds on offer at athe time, except for outsiders. It is also becoming increasingly the case that particularly when the shows are passed on a race, the odds on Betfair are smaller than that of the show - you can predict show changes with some accuracy if keeping a close eye on the market - a horse's price tends to collapse rapidly on Betfair before the moves can be seen on the off-course shows.

    Also, with the increase of technology & customer analysis of bookmakers, etc, backing horses on course still remains probably the most effective way of getting large amounts of cash on a horse at a price. Also, with exchanges you cannot always guarantee getting the decent prices you want at the level you want it matched at.
    Moderation is a fatal thing. Nothing succeeds like excess.

    False face must hide what the false heart doth know.

  11. #11
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    I would love to be able to do this it is hard enough for me and i know a lot of people in various yards and still struggle to keep in front, except from this year where i am well in front. :P

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    Senior Member Steve T's Avatar
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    Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Feb 16 2005, 07:17 PM
    That's not necessarily always the case now, Steve. Apart form anything else you have to factor the commission charges into the equation too. Admittedly if you'r eturning over large amounts of cash on Betfair you will have a lower commission rate but your turnover has to be maintained or you will get raised bak cto a higher commission level.

    To be honest, the real value to be had with the exchanges now is in ante post races; when it comes to daily races the prices tend to be pretty much on a par with the bookmaker's odds on offer at athe time, except for outsiders. It is also becoming increasingly the case that particularly when the shows are passed on a race, the odds on Betfair are smaller than that of the show - you can predict show changes with some accuracy if keeping a close eye on the market - a horse's price tends to collapse rapidly on Betfair before the moves can be seen on the off-course shows.

    Also, with the increase of technology & customer analysis of bookmakers, etc, backing horses on course still remains probably the most effective way of getting large amounts of cash on a horse at a price. Also, with exchanges you cannot always guarantee getting the decent prices you want at the level you want it matched at.
    I disagree. Take this example quoted:

    "I watched in awe as Dave collected. Now all I had to do was untangle how he had done it, with a dizzying range of bets placed moments before the start: £600 on Absolut Power at 7-2, £300 on Harrycat at 3-1, £300 on Mr Dinglawi at 5-1"

    I have no doubt these prices could've been bettered on the exchanges, including an allowance for commission, without historical information from Betfair though, it's impossible to prove over a period of time.

  13. #13
    Derek.Burgess
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    Long hours and hard work,but it's worth it.

    Mr Nevison is good at what he does.

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    Er, frankly, I don't give a toss about the betting side of things but just as a layman's suggestion, perhaps he enjoys it more if he goes to the racecourse ..
    Man: Do you get wafers with it?

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    Super Moderator Irish Stamp's Avatar
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    Agreed Muttley
    Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    His tipping in the Daily Record last Sat was awful so won't ever be using his tipping line. Must be easier racereading on course though with future races in mind.

    Does he still do guest appearances for ATR at racecourses. ?
    "The owls are not what they seem"

  17. #17
    Senior Member Shadow Leader's Avatar
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    Seriously Steve, when it comes to the show prices coming through Betfair is rarely much bigger than the show prices, except by tiny fractions which, when you take comission into account, it turns the other way. I doubt very much that those prices could have been bettered by more than half a point - once commission is taken into account, that would have swung the other way. Once the shows come through you will do no better betting on exchanges than taking sow prices in the vast majority of cases unless you are backing rank outsiders.
    Moderation is a fatal thing. Nothing succeeds like excess.

    False face must hide what the false heart doth know.

  18. #18
    Senior Member Honest Tom's Avatar
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    Not strictly true SL, but more or less accurate in the case of horses that are shortening (or about to) in the market. I find I can only get the size of bet I want on horses that are drifting (or about to). This year, when I had no access to bookmakers, my two most hated sayings were "gamble landed" and "the winner was well backed" as I rarely had any more than a fraction of my bet accepted before the price collapsed.
    A curmudgeon barely alive

  19. #19
    Senior Member Shadow Leader's Avatar
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    That's pretty much my point, Tom - when it comes to fancied horses you'll get a shorter price on BF & only for very small amounts. Also, nowadays when it comes to the first half dozen or so in the betting, you're not likely to get much bigger prices on BF & the commission tends to wipe that advantage out unless you're playing large on BF, & playing regularly.
    Moderation is a fatal thing. Nothing succeeds like excess.

    False face must hide what the false heart doth know.

  20. #20
    Derek.Burgess
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    ...........and winning.

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