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Thread: The Pointing Thread

  1. #141
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    Quote Originally Posted by Irish Stamp View Post
    Wouldn't rule out Doc Row either - yard been in decent form at the start of hte p2p season and should go well.
    Good spot Stamp...well done. Hope you had a few bob on.

  2. #142
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    Calling Irish Stamp and Jeremy! The Leicester Hunter looks between Galway Jack and Start Royal. My preference is for Galway Jack who should win if more patiently ridden today. Can you shed further thoughts/opinions on Start Royal and how you see this race panning out?

    Over to Musselburgh, I can see Simonsberg being turned over in this one most likely, as the prices would suggest, by Silverburn.

    All in all, two interesting races today. Your thoughts would be appreciated.

  3. #143
    Super Moderator Irish Stamp's Avatar
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    GJ going well at home but get the impression that Johnny only knows one way of riding him so if anything goes with him he might be in trouble. Start Royal will appreciate the drop back in trip IMO and has done well on speed tracks like Cottenham and Kingston Blount as a youngster. I can see GJ going off in front and hopefully for his backers nothing takes him on - I don't see why Advertising Space is as short as he is, he looked promising in France and has form with some useful horses but he's failed to complete on his two starts so far in points and backers are relying on the connections and a hatred of farmers fields being to get him right IMO. Would happily take Rumbury Grey to beat Advertising Space in a match bet with the former running a solid race behind the enigmatic Cedrus Libani LTO.

    Wouldn't rule out Dusshera in the race though as she's been progressing nicely in a weak area (the South East) but her run last time out on her return to action at Chaddesley has been franked since with Commander Kev running out an easy winner next time out at Charing last month.


    Martin
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  4. #144
    Super Moderator Irish Stamp's Avatar
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    Thanks Trefflich - was a no bet race for me but would have layed Aggies Lad if forced to do anything in there.

    Agree on Simonsberg too.
    Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins

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  5. #145
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    Well done Martin, seems you got a great price on Rumbury after! Match bet of the year by the sounds of things too. Laid Galway Jack after reading your comments on the jock, didn't think he'd last out which proved correct thankfully!

    Silverburn also hacked up and I laid Simonsberg as I just couldn't have him being that short. So all in all a good days hunter chasing! Love these races as punting mediums and spectacles. Now on to tomorrow...

  6. #146
    Senior Member Steve T's Avatar
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    Anyone come across this site before? Hunterchases Was pointed out to me for a decent site with regard to Hunter Chases.
    Last edited by Steve T; 16th February 2012 at 7:38 PM.

  7. #147
    Super Moderator Irish Stamp's Avatar
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    Yeah the lads who run that have only recently set it up Steve but they know what they're doing. Gareth Topham is a very good young commentator who you'll all be hearing a lot more about under rules in the future whilst Andy Norman does a lot of work in Midlands pointing - there'd be far far worse people to follow when it comes to betting in UK Hunter Chases.

    Martin
    Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins

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  8. #148
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    With the Henderson team in great form, if Barber Shop is ever going to win another race well then today is the day. Odds on in what appears to be a match, I'd expect him to win this handily today in receipt of weight off the top horse Eleazar.

    In the Sandown Hunter, I'm going to side with Gwanako. I believe he will come through this test as most of his rivals are inconvenienced by the trip or using this as a springboard to bigger prizes later in the season.

    A short priced double for me today...not my usual bet but I fancy these. Martin/Jeremy, can you offer opinions? Or steer me in the right direction!

  9. #149
    Super Moderator Irish Stamp's Avatar
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    I'd agree with you Trefflich if I thought that Barbers Shop was still a capable racehorse but he's not been seen out in nearly 15 months and last time he ran they were trying the blinkers on him for hte first time (debatable whether cheek pieces had worked given he'd been soundly beaten each time he'd worn them). The 147 rating is to me a very false indication of his ability and his only wins over fences have been going RH at Kempton (beaten the decent at the time Russian Around), LH at Newbury (though he was 1/5) and against Abbeybraney again RH at Sandown. I've always been of the opinion that Barbers Shop is overated and Eleazar is no mug in his own right having run Southwestern close on that horses favourite track in a big Hunter Chase at Stratford last year and previously beaten the injury prone (but v v decent) Dante's Storm at Uttoxeter. Eleazar also has proven course form and but for falling in a Novice Chase would have won his last two starts at this track, he was also a very decent hurdler and it was less than 2 years ago that he was running in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham.

    Will be laying Barbers Shop today @ 1.68.

    Regarding the Sandown race I'd agree that Gwanako is the most likely winner but having priced the race up last night I think he's underpriced at 9/4, it was a very solid effort in defeat at Larkhill and he'll have a decent young jockey on board today but for me the horse who's seriously overpriced is the Irish challenger Jamadiel, it's hard to take his recent P2P starts without a large dose of cynicism given how close he got to Foxhunters favourite Backstage on his most recent outings but I can see him running into a place in this, the drop in trip is a concern but this will be his first outing in a Hunter Chase having previously contested the Military races around here.

    Blackstaff would be the one from the leading contenders for me as he looked a highly progressive youngster last season for the Williams' and Lizzie Kelly with the latter giving him a very positive ride at Exeter for her Maiden triumph before being badly hampered and effectively put out of the race during the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham, I don't see the drop back in tirp being a problem and whilst Gwanako and Heron's Well will be tough to beat (Putney Bridge too if returning in the same form that he was in when last seen) I think he looks a decent E/W price.

    Good luck today Trefflich - fingers crossed for some more profits

    Martin
    Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins

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  10. #150
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    What Martin said, basically. I'd also like to point to Eleazar's ability to defy sizeable lay-offs as another virtue of his - three times in his career he's gone in after absences as long as today's or longer.

    Barbers Shop has won twice on seasonal reappearance himself if one includes his March 2006 bumper debut (short-heading yesterday's Musselburgh winner Silverburn, no less!), but the last time he did that was when making desperately hard work of landing a Southwell intermediate hurdle in June 2007 after six months out.

    He's never successfully gone in after a longer break than that, although in mitigation some of those reappearances have necessarily been in races at or close to the highest level.

    The only fear with Eleazar is whether he's on one of his bone-idle days and sets himself too much to do - you wouldn't want him to drop out of the back of the telly by halfway around somewhere as sharp as Fakenham.

    There's a school of thought that suggests he might have won the W&S Recycling at Stratford (the erstwhile Horse&Hound) last spring had he raced more purposefully from earlier in the race, and it's a view I'm not entirely unsympathetic towards.

    gc
    "It's one of the little men from the village" - Monty Python's Meaning of Life

  11. #151
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    Ok guys, enough said! I figured the track might catch out Eleazar having watched him run in Stratford but you seem to have swayed me!

  12. #152
    Super Moderator Irish Stamp's Avatar
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    Eleazar never travelling - don't think we've learnt much other than that Barbers Shop has 4 legs still.

    Martin
    Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins

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  13. #153
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    Anyone got any advice for Ston Easton today?

  14. #154
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    Vicasflia in the Maiden - it's a half to China Rock IIRC but I don't think the racecard will tell you that.

    Richard Barber runs 8 of his.

    Ballinla wasn't off a yard LTO so should go well in the Maiden IMO - Charlie Dando had the handbrake firmly on at Dunthrop.

    Aces Or Better will have come on for his UK debut at Charing too - he was carrying plenty of condition in the paddock though Southwestern will be very hard to beat.

    Toby Lerone won the Maiden we ran in at Barbury and the form has been franked by a few in behind, he'll probably improve with experience but the more testing the better for him IMO as he looks like he'll need the full trip.

    Above all good luck and enjoy the day (and if poss could you let me know if Massimo runs?)

    Thanks

    Martin
    Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins

    Twitter: @Quevega

  15. #155
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    Anyone have any opinions on the hunters today?

    Edit: strong opinions!
    Last edited by trefflich; 18th February 2012 at 11:54 AM.

  16. #156
    Super Moderator Irish Stamp's Avatar
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    Ah sorry Trefflich - no strong opinion here, only view was that Surenaga was drifting to a monster price despite the going concerns. Back on faster ground and over 3m 2f+ he'll be a different proposition.

    Hope you had a good day out at Ston Easton Benny - Ballinla was 3rd @ 14/1 in the Open Maiden over 2 1/2m, I'd imagine he was staying on strongly from off the pace? He should be a force in better races than this given time and a step up in trip IMO.

    Toby Lerone took the Restricted thought he was 4/5 favourite so no credit there whilst the other two weren't placed and not certain if they ran or not (Vicasflia and Aces Or Better).

    Martin
    Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins

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  17. #157
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    I got totally soaked there today! Horse decided to go lame this morning so didn't run but we went anyway. Arranged to meet back at car after second for lunch. Got to spot I thought we'd left car - gone! So I walked round in driving icy rain looking for it - for half a bloody hour! I was so cold by the time I found them (all snuggled up warm & toasty - and laughing at me!) I got back in car and point blank refused to move for the rest of a very wet day.
    Shame we didn't run as horse would have loved conditions. Southwestern obviously hated them and was caught by Mahonia owned by a certain P Nicholls.
    From the relative warmth of the car (my jeans are still wet) I managed to back Lizzie Kelly's winner as I remember it being strongly fancied at Chipley last time only to get kicked at the start.
    Horse to take out of day - Callmeginger - very nice horse of Barbers.
    tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito

  18. #158
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    Likewise got absolutely drenched! Good racing though. Backed Ballinla each way - he ran on really well from what had looked an impossible position. Toby Lerone looks a fine prospect. Same applies to Vicasflia, who I thought looked a little short of fitness in the paddock, but a fine horse nevertheless. He crept into the race nicely but was soon eased before the last when his chance had gone. Thanks for the advice IS, and hope you had a good day JinnyJ.

  19. #159
    Super Moderator Irish Stamp's Avatar
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    Cheers Benny - handbrake on again then, he'll be a real tool when upped to 3m which will hopefully be later this year (Ballinla that is). He fell on his only start in Ireland but jumped well at Dunthrop and I'd backed him at 20's so disappointing to see him given the ride he was.

    Toby Lerone will be a decent horse IMO when he matures some, will definitely be worth taking on in Bumpers and over shorter trips over hurdles but could be the next Harry The Viking who won a Maiden at Larkhill last year before going under rules.

    Hope you've both dried out by now - I never know what to make of Lizzie Kelly she seems to have a habit of getting carted/making v v positive mid-race moves but she sat well on Blackstaff at Sandown over the first couple of fences yesterday.

    Was great to see that She's A Cracker won again today, she should be 3/3 this year but for a mishap at Tweseldown but task was made easier when the favourite of John Ferguson's departed but impressive from what I'm told and if they go back under rules with her she's got at least 20-30lbs in hand on her hurdles mark as she's really really thrived for the Gorman's.

    Looking forward to Charing tomorrow - should be a cracking card and I'd imagine that Chosen Few will be very tough to beat if they take in the opening short Maiden whilst if they go for the finale One Wish and Moyode Wood will provide very stiff competition with the last named the most likely winner.

    There are a number of winners from the last Charing meeting likely to re-appear tomorrow including Ladies winner Mount Sandel who is again likely to be a short priced favourite for Frankie Hickman whilst the Restricted winner Adept Approach is entered in the Mens equivalent, he'll need to step up on what he's shown so far but he's still a young horse so there's plenty of time (though he might be better suited to racing in Intermediates for the time being) whilst Maiden winner No Pain No Gain will attempt to take his second race at the track in the Restricted.

    Two pony races open the card at 11:15am and there's always a chance to see a future star in one of those

    Martin
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  20. #160
    Super Moderator Irish Stamp's Avatar
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    Hoping for 11/2 or 6/1 about Oca De Thaix in the Welsh Foxhunters at Ffos Las today, dual course iwnner last season and the one to beat IMO particularly with the class rules horse Sunday City looking like a non-stayer and Sericina getting beaten LTO (albeit by the very decent Warwick HC winner Monkerty Tunkerty.

    Martin
    Hurricane Fly - whatever he runs in he wins

    Twitter: @Quevega

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