The Pointing Thread

[Irish Stamp]

Three good HC's and a walkover (most likely) today which should be interesting from a betting perspective.

In the first HC over at Leicester I think that course winner Rumbury Grey is underated here relative to the likes of Marblehead (a winner over 4m at Dunthrop in a good Open LTO) and Rathcor (runner-up over 3 1/4m LTO) and I think that the shorter trip will be against both of those whilst Kiama again has Will Biddick up (rode last time out) and at 20/1 he could be a big player E/W if we have the dead eight in at the off.

Pistolet Noir was sold for big money out of Nick Williams yard but never lived up to it at Paul Nicholls and though he showed more in his p2p debut last time out I'd be inclined to overlook him whilst Johnny Bailey hasn't exactly shone in his rides on Galway Jack so far this season and Gidam Gidam is surely a live contender for some of the staying contests later on in the season (4m HC at Cheltenham would be where I'd target him).

In the 2m Thrusters HC at the same track the favourite is 14yo Fairwood Present - a worthy fav IMO but too short at 11/8, Restless D'Artaix clearly retains some of his old zip whilst former Cheltenham Festival runner Gardasee showed up well for a long way on his p2p debut last time out and can go well under his decent jockey Ben Poste. I wouldn't rule out Point Proven either who is another who ran well for a long way over further than this - though in his case it was in a Hunter Chase and at 20/1 (Gardasee) and 6/1 (Point Proven) they'd be the two for me.

At Wincanton it looks a two horse race to me and with Jayne's Crusader winning this last year and looking an unlucky loser having slipped up on landing at the final fence last time out he looks the one for me at 7/4 and given how I priced it last night I feel that the front two in the market are the wrong way round. Massimo is a very decent horse on his day but the presence of JD Moore in the plate on Jayne's Crusader just swings it for me and the Ladbrokes price of 7/4 is a bet IMO.

Anyone else any thoughts?

Martin

[graysonscolumn]

In the first HC over at Leicester I think that course winner Rumbury Grey is underated here relative to the likes of Marblehead (a winner over 4m at Dunthrop in a good Open LTO) and Rathcor (runner-up over 3 1/4m LTO) and I think that the shorter trip will be against both of those whilst Kiama again has Will Biddick up (rode last time out) and at 20/1 he could be a big player E/W if we have the dead eight in at the off.

Pistolet Noir was sold for big money out of Nick Williams yard but never lived up to it at Paul Nicholls and though he showed more in his p2p debut last time out I'd be inclined to overlook him whilst Johnny Bailey hasn't exactly shone in his rides on Galway Jack so far this season and Gidam Gidam is surely a live contender for some of the staying contests later on in the season (4m HC at Cheltenham would be where I'd target him).

I've not had the time to devote to these races as I would have liked, alas, owing to a server meltdown at the Day Job yesterday, but my thinking at the moment is to have a couple of small each-way tilts on Gidam Gidam and Special Portrait at this remove, and maybe something in-running on both depending upon the early shape of the race.

In essence you're right that Gidam Gidam is more of a marathon hunter chaser proposition - I've been saying that on That Other Place and elsewhere since before the start of term. However, this would be as stiff a track as he's encountered since joining the amateur ranks, and this could be run murderously quickly enough for him to be able to clean up when the more aggressively ridden competitors start to flag.

I include 2010 race winner Marblehead in that bracket. I oppose anything ridden by Mark Wall these days with a heavy heart, as I'm a big fan and he's having a corking season so far (only Will Biddick has ridden more Pointing winners so far this season, and with better ammo pound for pound), and of course the gelding proved totally amenable to unusually patient tactics when winning that four-miler, the Lord Ashton of Hyde at Dunthrop, in January.

Dropped back down to 3m, however, I expect the tactics will revert back to front-running on Jim Collett's grey, and that's going to put him on a collision course early doors with Galway Jack on recent evidence. Note also that Pistolet Noir tried to make all on his Pointing debut at Ston Easton last month, and that was by no means under duress (decent enough sized field, not a tactical race), so the candidates for a burn-up number as many as three here.

Like Gidam Gidam, Special Portrait isn't likely to be wanting a piece of the early lead, which will be to his advantage if things pan out as I anticipate, and the fact that he won the Heart Of All England at Hexham on good two years ago gives a bit of a lie to the notion that he absolutely needs it sloshy. Only if the ground errs towards good to firm would I worry about him.

Rumbury Grey doesn't make as much appeal as some. It's not surprising to me that the win here last time was gained over the stretch 2m4f rather than 2m7.5f, as there are more stamina question marks over him than even connections are evidently prepared to entertain.

His owner-breeder insisted after the Dick Saunders win that Rumbury Grey is a 3m horse, and to an extent he is - granted sharp/easy courses, that is. Note that his Pointing wins have come around Bangor PtP (sharp and flat), Bitterley (flat and galloping but short) and Black Forest Lodge (sharp); and whilst that Bangor win came on heavy (on debut, over three years ago), in essence 3m around those courses ought to take far less getting than a strongly run 2m7.5f around a big Rules track like Leicester.

Note also some very patchy form around the more testing Pointing courses he's visited. Two visits to Brafield-on-the-Green have resulted in two pullings up (on good); he didn't last home around Whitwick Manor when first trying Restricted class; and he got turned over at 4-6 in his Hunt Members race at Cold Harbour once.

If he does take this it will be the most meaningful thing he's ever done around a tough 2m7f-3m of any description, but I have to have grave doubts about him proving capable of doing so.

Hope this helps!

Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)

[trefflich]

Thanks gents, appreciate the time taken to respond. Having looked throught the races I have plumped for a distance bet on Gwanako, a nice win bet on Jayne's Crusader @13/8and an ew on Special Portrait for the binman! We will all be a bit wiser this evening!

[Marble]

I include Marblehead in that bracket.

[icebreaker]

In the first HC over at Leicester I think that course winner Rumbury Grey is underated here
Martin

Great, great shout !
Returned 14/1.
Very well done, indeed.

[trefflich]

Rumbury is really doing it for you this year Martin! Hope you were on....again!

[Grey]

Thanks for the pointer to Jayne's Crusader, this thread is doing rather well!

[Irish Stamp]

Cheers lads - very happy with todays two winners at 7/4 and 14/1. Onwards and upwards, though think it'd be too greedy asking for Gardasee to go in at a big price in the other HC at Leicester.

There's more HC action over the weekend too

Martin

[Irish Stamp]

Happy to take on Old Si in the 2m 4f race, he's been running over 3m and this trip is more to his liking but he's struggled in races at speed tracks and IMO is highly vulnerable with the most likely winner being Power Shared for Clare Hart. Power Shared made a pleasing return to action at Ston Easton last month when third to Quedillac (previously a winner of a similar Larkhill race) and Logans Run (since finished runner-up in a HC) and this 2m 4f will be more to his liking than that affair and it's entirely possible that had the race been over a furlong or so shorter he'd have beaten those two very useful animals. At 6/1 or so he represents a solid bet in this.

In the 3m 2f Crudwell Cup I feel that a dark horse could be the Larkhill Maiden winner Noble Aran who impressed me with the style of his victory on that occasion and though stepping up markedly in grade looks like he could prove to be a decent purchase for his new pointing connections. Noble Aran had previously run under rules - most recently for Nigel Twiston-Davies with limited success though the quicker ground at Larkhill (and indeed the good ground he will get today) look sure to suit him better than the good to soft he had been racing on. He has a lot to find on the OR's with the useful Recif De Thaix switching to points having been purchased by Robert Waley-Cohen but there have been at least two notable horses who've underperformed in points this season having switched from track racing at a relatively young age and having been off the track for nearly two years the percentage call is to oppose him. The trip will certainly be to Palypso De Creek's liking and fingers crossed that Clare Hart will be on a double by the time it comes to riding this fellow though he looks priced about right at 5/1.

At a bigger price Apollo Blaze is interesting - he's likely to be around 33/1 but has the highly capable Mikey Ennis taking over from a female novice pilot (albeit a useful one) and that should be to his advantage and he's fairly closely matched with Quil Est Beau on running earlier in the season and with the bounce factor a possible for QEB Apollo Blaze may be worth a small interest against the more fancied runners.

To summise I'll be having a fair E/W bet on Noble Aran at around 20/1 (I hope) and a smaller E/W bet on Apollo Blaze at 33's or so in the 3m 2f affair and then Power Shared at around 6's in the short HC.

Off to Godstone today - quality won't be great but should be some competitive racing at least and hopeful of a couple of HC winners too.

Anyone else any thoughts on the racing today?

Martin

[jinnyj]

I'm giving local course Treborough a miss - bad viewing on the whole coupled with the fact its foggy here which means it could be pea soup up there. Its also a course where horses can break down badly as little top soil. Might be doing my old local, Howick, next week though.

[Irish Stamp]

Poor results last Sunday and the absence of the favourite gives this next race at Towcester an open look to it.

Personally not a fan of William Butler coming off a long lay off and he's as short as he is due to connections and the jockey IMO - beaten last time out in a Claiming Hurdle is a concern despite his relatively high rating.

Officier De Reserve is the bet for me at 3.45 - the ground will have been far too soft for him at Haydock and the drop back to 2m 6f should suit him too, Sam Painting is a decent jockey who's done well on the likes of Kahlua Cove in points and on The Polomoche in HC's in recent seasons and he's taken to beat Dusshera who's had her chances in better races than this so far this season.

Martin

[jinnyj]

Meant to say sad to see Monkerty Tunkerty out of the Foxhunters with a bruised foot.

[Irish Stamp]

That too - out with a bruised foot Jinny.

Some complaints from elsewhere that Description has been balloted out - hard to argue really as his OR is lower than Theatre Diva and if one of the "true pointers" ie. those campaigned exclusively in HC's and P2P's had gone (namely Blackstaff, Count Salazar and Oscar Delta) then there'd have been far more to complain about IMO.

Martin

[Cruella]

Meant to say sad to see Monkerty Tunkerty out of the Foxhunters with a bruised foot.

I was looking for him in the decs; what a shame.

[del boy]

Cheers Martin, had a few bob on that.

[Irish Stamp]

No worries Del

[del boy]

No worries Del

Now tell me the bets for the Foxhunters and you can have the evening off.....

[Irish Stamp]

My main bet so far Del is a few fairly decent Ante-Post wagers on My Flora at between 14/1 and 16/1. She fell over an inadequate trip at Newbury but has won easily at Chaddesley Corbett since and I think she'll go well again but I'd imagine there'll be some 12/1 available tomorrow.

Also backing:

Surenaga @ 66/1. He won the most prestigious P2P race of the season last year the Lady Dudley Cup (also at CC) over 3 1/2m on the bridle on a sound surface and won't have been at all suited by the bottomless ground at Haydock (the early Betfair market suggested someone knew he wouldn't be running his race that day too), despite that he travelled very very well into the race and it was only the ground that beat him on the day (form has been franked since by both Island Chief and Officier De Reserve) and the sound surface at Cheltenham tomorrow will be far more to his liking.

Bradley @ 50/1. He's already a CD winner having taken the Intermediate Final (a Novicey P2P Championship if you will) at this track at the Hunter Chase meeting in 2010 and as such is proven under very similar conditions to tomorrow's. He went on to finish 2nd in the UK Novice Championship of that year (a race won by My Flora in 2011) at Stratford over 3 1/2m so should stay the trip well. He came back this year to finish runner-up to the front running Monkerty Tunkerty (Bradley also raced handy) in one of the first HC's of the UK season at Warwick back in January and he's since taken out a Military riders race at Sandown. Bradley is reunited with Mark Wall today and can go well at a huge price.

My final selection comes from across the sea:

Count Salazar @ 40/1. Remarkably this fellow started the season a Maiden having suffered defeats in two very hot Maidens last season (5+ winners have come out of each of them) including first time out at Lisronagh behind todays rival Salsify on good ground in December 2010. He came back this Autumn and got off the mark on good to yielding ground from subsequent winner Frankie Flowers at Milltown prior to one of the most impressive performances of the season so far for me in a Winners race at Ballydarragh in December when he didn't come off the bridle to beat Oppera by 15 lengths. His track debut came in a Maiden Hunter Chase over Christmas in which his main market rival Tyrone Golden Rain fell but he still went on to score by 2 1/2 lengths from Spiker The Biker (significantly inferior to todays rivals) at Limerick whilst his next outing came at Thurles when he was never really at the races and dropped out tamely (other big names disappointed on this day also including Benefficient in the Novice Hurdle and also Salsify in this race) behind todays rivals Merchant Royal and Not Before Eight but he returned to form with a bang and secured qualification for this race with his first Open P2P victory at Bennettsbridge just over two weeks when he saw off the formerly useful Perce Rock. The main concern is that his best performances have all come on soft/heavy ground and that like many others in this race he races prominently - I'm hoping they sit mid div with him as I don't think he'll have the pace to go with some of the speedier types early on.

Martin

[Irish Stamp]

Interesting Novices HC at Fakenham today - Marky Bob should win this if returning in the same vein as he did earlier this month at Tweseldown but I think that Into The Light is a good deal better than he's shown so far, he's lowly rated under rules and would have finished closer LTO in a handicap hurdle but for a bad mistake late on. He had earlier stayed on well in a Maiden P2P from well out the back and with more than enough pace on in the race he represents a fair bet at 9/1.

Will also be playing the forecast with Marky Bob as despite what others say I'm not a fan of Silver Tenor who though returning to form last time out it wasn't the greatest race ever run at Garthorpe and he still looks vulnerable to me.

Martin

[Irish Stamp]

Good Hunter Chase at Southwell today with Paul Rich's Sizing America the likely favourite.

Sizing America was useful on his day and has shown very decent form this season behind Bradley though IMO he's vulnerable to the Phil York trained Ringa Bay who though a bit of a headcase has shown plenty in his two most recent starts this season. The first of those came at Charing when he led all the way in a large field Members event to beat some very useful horses whilst last time out at Kingston Blount he again led from pillar to post to record another decent success in an Intermediate. He's only had the one start over regulation fences and that came at the Folkestone HC night last May when he was still travelling very well when coming down at the 11th and Phil York will surely be wanting to get some more rules experience into him prior to the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham in May.

He warrants a bet at 4/1 and the evs available with Sportingbet and Ladbrokes about him beating the Ian Williams trained Teddy's Reflection is also worth taking.

Martin