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Thread: The thoughts of the handicappers.

  1. #121
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    Saturday's meeting at Ascot saw the highly progressive three-year-old filly Mince, one of the rising stars of the domestic sprint scene, take her first step in to Group company, writes Stewart Copeland. It proved her sternest test to date but one she passed with flying colours.

    The six-furlong Group 3 John Guest Bengough Stakes attracted a decent field, though her closest rival on the ratings, and in the betting ring, was the Godolphin-trained five-year-old gelding Soul, impressive winner of the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury run on similarly soft conditions back in July.

    As it turned out those two dominated proceedings virtually throughout and fought out a terrific finish, with Mince eventually asserting close home, narrowly prevailing by a head. In chalking up her fourth straight win, Mince showed great fighting qualities to get the better of her battle-hardened rival, which augurs well for stiffer challenges, which no doubt wait ahead.

    In terms of ratings though, I don't feel she needed to improve on her current rating of 113, achieved when an emphatic winner of a Listed race at York on her previous start. Both the standards we calculate for the race, and the form of the placed horses, suggest a figure of 109 for Mince, which is the view I've taken for now. Indeed when examining her overall form, one could easily argue she won despite the soft ground not being ideal, and a return to quicker conditions like she had at York may promise even better to come.

    Connections are currently considering supplementing for the Group 2 QIPCO British Champions Sprint at Ascot a week on Saturday, and in a wide-open sprint division this year she'd go there with every chance. Even if she doesn't take up that challenge, she remains in training next year, which is great news.

    MOLLY MALONE PROVES SO PRETTY

    The Noel Murless Stakes, a Listed race for three-year-olds over a mile-and-three-quarters at Ascot, was won in good style this year by Biographer, a progressive colt who looks one to follow, writes Stephen Hindle.

    With eight of the nine runners covered by around six lengths, it's difficult to take a positive view of the form, particularly with three of those rated in the 80s. However, a largely steady tempo didn't help and there's reason to believe Biographer will end up a fair bit higher than the 101 I now have him on, once he gets into a race which places more of an emphasis on stamina. His form figures now read a rather aesthetic 212121.

    Over at Longchamp, the focus of course was on the Arc de Triomphe, but I was responsible for a couple of races over longer distances.

    Molly Malone wheeled her proverbial wheelbarrow through the mud to a two-and-a-half length victory in the Prix du Cadran, the French version of the Gold Cup. In doing so she had the Ascot version's winner, Colour Vision, three lengths adrift in third, but given the underfoot conditions I was reluctant to take the view that Colour Vision had run to his best.

    Runner-up High Jinx proved the key for me, as I didn't want to rate him higher than Times Up, who beat him in both the Lonsdale and Doncaster Cups and is currently rated 114. I didn't want to put either of those races up so went 113 for High Jinx, which also gave me a figure of 113 for Molly Malone after the fillies' allowance was taken into account.

    Britain was also represented in the Prix Chaudenay over a mile-and-seven furlongs. The 104-rated Shantaram looked to have much better prospects of making a serious impact in this than the 84-rated Mysterious Man. However in the end, neither colt could trouble the judge behind Canticum, whom I and my international colleagues have running to 114, which is based on the fifth Pale Mimosa. It may be a little high but makes enough sense for now.

    There was some British success in staying company over at Saint-Cloud though, with Quiz Mistress getting home by a short head in the Listed Scaramouche Stakes over a mile-and-three-quarters. Taking into account the form of her rivals, her rating goes up to 100. She was previously rated 94.

    DROP IN GRADE PROVES A SKILFUL CHOICE

    The Betfred Challenge Cup Handicap at Ascot on Saturday is one of the richest handicaps of the Flat season and it attracted a classy field, headed by Bannock, who came into the race rated 107, writes Mark Olley.

    Recent Ayr Gold Cup winner Captain Ramius would have been top-weight, but he was able to run under a 6lbs penalty meaning that he raced from a mark of 106 and not his Gold Cup winning rating of 109.

    In the race, Skilful was able to dictate and get first run on Ascot specialist Don't Call Me and the ultra-consistent Arnold Lane. As a handicapper, Arnold Lane is a great horse to have in these competitive handicaps because he nearly always runs his race. He has posted performance ratings between 96 and 99 on his last five starts, which have mainly been in big field, competitive handicaps and so I based the race around him.

    This means that I have Don't Call Me running to a career high figure of 105 in second. David Nicholls' gelding has won twice here at Ascot, as well as finishing third in the Royal Hunt Cup and the Lady Jockeys Diamond H'cap, from just a handful of runs and clearly loves the Berkshire air.

    John Gosden's Skilful dropped back into handicap grade here, after a couple of excellent runs in Listed company. His victory from a rating of 105 marks him down as a smart performer and his new figure of 111 is well up to that of many Listed/Group 3 winners.

    Over at Redcar the Listed Guisborough Stakes attracted a strong field and was won in convincing fashion by Eton Forever. Roger Varian's gelding was ridden clear from Firebeam (108) who has finished second in Listed and Group 3 company this term. I called the two-and-a-quarter length winning margin a standard 5lbs and this moves Eton Forever to a career high figure of 113.

    This compares very favourably with recent winners and makes him the highest rated winner of this event. Chilworth Lad was 112 last year, while Harrison George in 2010 and Appalachian Trail in 2007 were both rated 110.

    This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

  2. #122
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    Dawn approaching champion status
    DAWN DOMINATES

    Thank goodness that Newmarket missed the sort of rain that fell on York, writes Matthew Tester.

    When Group 1 races are run in a bog you do not find out which was the best horse. You find out who coped best with the conditions. The ground on Future Champions Day was as close to good as you could expect and the races worked out as close to perfect as any handicapper could have wished.

    Going into the Middle Park, my top-rated was Reckless Abandon on 116 with Moohajim on 115. The two joined battle with Reckless Abandon coming out a neck in front. Both ratings stayed where they were and confirmed the levels we already had for the Prix Morny and the Mill Reef Stakes.

    The Dewhurst was dominated by Dawn Approach. His sire, New Approach, had won this race in 2007 running to an exceptional 126. Dawn Approach went into this race with a 121 rating from his win in the National Stakes. There were a few seconds in the race when I thought that he might lose. On the downhill section he took ages to get himself organised. But he came up the hill in great style.

    There is a difference of opinions among my international colleagues as to whether he should now be rated 121 or 122. The proximity of his stablemate Leitir Mor is the fly in the ointment since he was only rated 105 before the race. However, apart from that large fly, everything else falls into place. On my reading he gave an 8lb beating to George Vancouver. In the Prix Morny, Reckless Abandon had given the same horse a 2lb beating. So it makes sense to have Dawn Approach 6lb ahead of Reckless Abandon's 116.

    We will work it all out when the European Handicappers meet in December. Either way he remains the top-rated juvenile in Europe.

    PROSPER PROSPERS TO MAKE HISTORY

    One of the phrases in racing that is often trumpeted is the lack of a gulf in class between top handicappers and Group-class performers, so it was somewhat pleasing to see Aaim To Prosper, a regular in Group/Listed company over staying distances, turn in a tremendous effort to defy top weight in the Cesarewitch, writes Stephen Hindle.

    Brian Meehan's eight-year-old's last appearance in a handicap was when winning the 2010 renewal off a mark 20lb lower than the one he defied on Saturday, when he became the first horse ever to win the race twice. Few punters were celebrating, however, as he went off at 66-1.

    That starting price was not hard to fathom on this season's form. Although campaigned in a higher grade 11 times between his Cesarewitch wins, Aaim To Prosper had not been in the best of form going into the race and was actually due to be dropped 2lb having been beaten around nine lengths in a Listed race, also at Newmarket, 16 days earlier. Never previously rated higher than the 107 he competed off, there is no questioning that this rates a career-best.

    The second, Countrywide Flame, came in looking attractively treated. After a magnificent juvenile hurdling campaign which saw him take the Triumph at Cheltenham, Countrywide Flame advertised his abilities on the Flat with a smooth enough win at Chester, and he went to Newmarket 2lb well in despite his 4lb penalty.

    Given the positives surrounding the second, I felt the third, Tominator, was a better guide to the level of the form. Previously with Reg Hollinshead, Tominator is now in the care of Jonjo O'Neill and will no doubt be seen over hurdles himself in the near future. Competing off 98 here, Tominator had never been higher than 100 on the Flat and I felt that would be a fair mark to return him to. If anything, I could have gone a shade higher, but that would have made him worse off with the winner of the race he competed in last time out and it will clearly take a career-best for him to defy a mark of 100 next time on the Flat.

    This looked a strongly run renewal so there seemed no reason to credit the winner with any extra over the second, nor the second with extra over the third, so by raising Tominator to 100 that equated to 112 for Aaim To Prosper, two-and-three-quarters in front of him at the line. Countrywide Flame was carried left slightly by the winner but I felt it had little impact on the result and I called the half length from winner to second the usual 1lb, meaning a new mark of 92 for Countrywide Flame. Compared to the ran-off marks, the winner would be 5lb higher, with the second 4lb and the third 2lb higher.

    With the first three six lengths clear, I don't have any of the other 31 runners performing up to their marks. To underline the toughness of this race, half the finishers were beaten over 50 lengths, with five of those beaten more than 100 lengths.

    BRITISH ABBAYE INVASION SEES HOME FILLY WIZZ

    The final 5f Group 1 race of the European season was the Prix L'Abbaye run at Longchamp on Arc day, writes Chris Nash.

    It is a race in which British-trained runners have historically done very well and this year 15 of the 18 runners were trained on these shores. The French provided only one runner and she ended up as the winner.

    Wizz Kid finished late and fast to collar Mayson and Hamish McGonagall winning by a neck, and half a length. There was a gap of two-and-a-half lengths back to the fourth (Ballesteros) so there are reasons for thinking that the first three have performed with credit. The French filly arrived with a rating of 110 and received 1.5kgs (or 3.3lb) as a fillies' allowance. As I had done in the Nunthorpe of this year, I turned to Hamish McGonagall to provide a le vel for the race. He had run a figure of 113 when beaten one-and-a-quarter lengths in the Nunthorpe this year and a figure of 114 when beaten theree-quarters of a length in the Nunthorpe of 2011.

    In being beaten three-quarters of a length here I settled on a figure of 114 for him again. This had Wizz Kid also running 114 and Mayson coming out as the best horse in the race in running a figure of 116. Confirmation of this level was provided by Ballesteros running a figure of 107 which equated to his previous highest official rating.

    Taking the view that he may well be a better horse over 6f I decided to leave the rating of Mayson unchanged on 119 - a mark he obtained after spreadeagling the July Cup field.

    Unfortunately we will not get to see him in the Champion Sprint at Ascot on Saturday but it will take a dazzling performance by someone to knock him off his perch as the leading British-trained sprint horse this year.

    Perhaps Society Rock who returned a figure of 117 when winning the Haydock Sprint is best placed to challenge for that title - his form receiving a timely boost on the Arc card when Gordon Lord Byron (who finished second to him at Haydock) won the 7f furlong Group 1 Prix de la Foret. The form of the Abbaye may well get an early test at Ascot as Wizz Kid remains in the field after the entry stage.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

  3. #123
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    Excelebration impresses in QEII exhibition

    BY THE BHA HANDICAPPERS 12:39PM 23 OCT 2012

    If ever a horse had regrets about being born in the same year as Frankel it would be Excelebration, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

    Five times he has taken on the world's highest-rated horse and five times he has come off second-best - but if he has developed an inferiority complex it certainly didn't show at Ascot on Saturday as he put on a dazzling exhibition to take the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

    Often the decider in the quest to be crowned Champion Miler of Europe, the race was never going to live up to that billing this year as Frankel had already stitched up the title with his victories over Aidan O'Brien's colt in the Lockinge and the Queen Anne, but in scoring by a long looking three lengths, Excelebration catapulted himself into a position within the top-three turf performers in the world this year.

    To my mind this was his best performance yet. Runner-up Cityscape has one outstanding performance to his name when landing the Dubai Duty Free at Meydan back in March when given a figure of 124, but other than that he has never bettered 121 and that is the figure I have him running to on Saturday, suggesting that Excelebration has run to 128+. Given the style of his success and the fact that he got boxed behind runners from two furlongs out, I'm sure his new published figure in Ireland will be pushing the 129/130 level - an improvement of 4 or 5lb on his previous efforts.

    This level for the race suggests Elusive Kate has run to 110 (continuing a pattern of gentle regression in her last couple of starts) and fourth placed Carlton House is 7lb off the best of his 10f form at 112 - fifth placed Sovereign Debt appears to have reproduced his pre-race mark of 111.

    A number of people asked me after the race if this was the proof that was needed to raise Frankel's rating from its current 140 - I don't believe it is. There is little doubt that using Dubawi Gold, and last year's QEII and this year's Lockinge as a guide, Excelebration had 'levelled off' at around the 125 mark - and one thing Saturday's race proved was how below form he was in a literal reading of the Queen Anne form.

    On that occasion he beat Side Glance and Indomito a neck and a length - this time around he hammered them by nearly seven-and-a-half and ten-and-a-half lengths. This was a new and improved Excelebration but one that will still languish some 10-11lb behind his old adversary.

    TOUGH MAAREK SPRINTS TO GLORY

    Even though the main focus of attention was understandably elsewhere at Ascot on Saturday, the Group 2 Qipco British Champions Sprint still provided a fascinating race in its own right, writes Stewart Copeland.

    At the head of the betting were the recent Group 1 winners Society Rock and Wizz Kid. However, neither performed to their best on the day, and the honours instead went to their closest rival in the market, the admirably tough and consistent Irish five-year-old gelding Maarek, trained by David Nagle.

    Maarek's had a tremendous season, already successful in two Group 3 races, as well as posting a tremendous weight-carrying effort when third in the Ayr Gold Cup, which I highlighted in the blog a few weeks back.

    Rated 114 prior to Saturday, I've taken the view that Maarek has reproduced that level of form again. This level of performance is what we would normally expect for the winner of this race (formerly rus as the Diadem) as the historical race standards we keep suggest the average winner is usually in the 113-114 bracket.

    Admirable as he is, Maarek's best form still falls someway short of the best sprint form we've seen in Europe this year, with that honour being held by Moonlight Cloud's 121, achieved when an emphatic winner of the Prix Maurice de Gheest. As far as top honours go amongst the British horses, that's currently Mayson's 119 achieved in the July Cup, with Society Rock and Bated Breath, both 117, best of the rest.

    THE NEW ONE FOR THE NEW SEASON

    Jump racing really got into the groove at Cheltenham over the weekend and all four races in my division (20f+ hurdles) produced winners who recorded figures of 140 or above, writes Martin Greenwood.

    Both handicaps were won by raiders from across the Irish Sea. After nearly five months without a winner in a British handicap, Irish trainers have struck with a vengeance in the last month and Bondage became their fifth winner in that time period when beating Medinas nearly three lengths, the pair well clear of a large and competitive field.

    Bondage is a tad quirky and carries his head high but there is no doubting his ability and he defied the 12lb rise given after his Perth victory in some style, always travelling strongly and never looking in danger of defeat despite his ungainly head carriage.

    His new rating is now 145, up 18lb from his pre-race figure, and if connections decide they don't want to try his new rating, they have the option of running in novice events as his first victory over hurdles only came in July at Sligo.

    Bondage shares top spot in the embryonic highest novice list with The New One, who made it two out of two over hurdles with an authoritative success in the opening race of Friday's card. Coming into the race, The New One had the best form due to his wide-margin win at Newton Abbot over two furlongs shorter earlier in the month, and was made favourite to overcome a handful of promising types.

    Like Bondage, The New One always looked the likely winner come the business end of the race and he was two and three-quarter lengths too good for Village Vic (received 5lb), who shaped extremely well on his hurdling debut, with the pair a long way clear.

    Like The New One, According To Trev, who won the 3m+ novice the following day, is trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies. According To Trev is also two from two over hurdles and he supplemented his Worcester success in June by holding off Irish raider Our Vinnie by a diminishing head, though it is entirely possible he was idling a touch in front.

    With some other promising individuals 11 lengths and more toiling behind, this race, like The New One's, looks above the usual standard for these races and I have rated him 140, with more improvement probable.

    Also now rated 140 (from 127) is Action Master who flew up the hill after being waited with to land the 3m handicap on Friday. Like Bondage, Action Master is a little quirky but again has plenty of talent and despite not looking the most straightforward of rides he scored in comfortable fashion from another Twiston-Davies inmate, Viking Blond, with favourite and fellow Irish challenger Heaney continuing his improvement in third.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

  4. #124
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    Excelebration at Ascot: the explanation
    Following on from the action on Champions Day at Ascot last Saturday, I have been taken to task on various internet sites and by one daily paper journalist in particular, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

    They all took exception to my comments that Excelebration’s performance in winning the Qipco QE II should not be taken into account when assessing Frankel’s final rating. I’m afraid I take the comment “How can these opinionated form boffins get it so wrong?” somewhat insulting in itself and feel that a detailed explanation of my thinking is in order.

    In my opinion Excelebration put up two 125 performances last year as a three-year old – when landing the Hungerford Stakes at Newbury by six lengths and when four lengths second to Frankel in last year’s renewal of the QE II. In that contest he beat Dubawi Gold (117) by three and three-quarter lengths and Side Glance (115) by five lengths – these are important “marker horses” by which to measure his 2012 performances.

    Having moved to Aidan O’Brien during the close season, Excelebration started the new campaign by finishing five lengths second to Frankel in the JLT Lockinge at Newbury – a four length gap back to Dubawi Gold (117) suggesting that he had once again performed to 125 given that the two of them had reproduced their previous Ascot running to within a quarter of a length. It was after this performance that I raised Frankel to a new mark of 138.

    While 'team O’Brien' had taken the view that they would try and 'jump' Frankel with a turn of foot at Newbury, they tried different tactics in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot in as much that they tried to race Frankel from over two furlongs out – a mistake as it turned out as he paid the price through the final furlong and only just held on for second place.

    The close proximity of old adversary Side Glance (114 - beaten a neck into third) and the German Listed race winner Indomito (112 – beaten a further length into fourth) suggest that, figures wise, Excelebration ran about 10lbs below his best at that time. I fully appreciate the fact that he paid the penalty for trying to make a race of it with Frankel and if he had purely been ridden to gain the best possible placing I’m sure he would have been a very clear cut runner-up, probably running to around 125.

    So at this point in his career he had met Frankel five times and the distances between them read:

    Greenham 2011 = 4 lengths
    St James’s Palace 2011 = 2.25 lengths
    QE II 2011 = 4 lengths
    Lockinge 2012 = 5 lengths
    Queen Anne 2012 = 11 lengths

    And so Excelebration moved on to France where I was delighted he landed the Jacques le Marois by one and a quarter lengths from Cityscape, with John Gosden’s filly Elusive Kate a further neck away third – again general opinion was that he had performed to a figure around the 124/125 mark in securing the success. My thoughts at the time were one of relief that he had suffered no ill effects from the Queen Anne battle but also that the run confirmed him to be still no better than a 125 horse.

    As I said in this blog last week however, I believe Champions Day saw a new and improved Excelebration. Let’s look at the facts:

    • He increased his superiority over Cityscape from the Jacques Le Marois from one and a quarter lengths and a neck, to a long looking three lengths and three and a quarter lengths – and it was achieved in an easier manner – suggesting at least a 4lb improvement.

    • He increased his superiority over Side Glance from a neck in the Queen Anne and five lengths in last year’s QE II to approaching seven and a half lengths – suggesting around a 5lb improvement.

    • He increased his superiority over Indomito from one and a quarter lengths in the Queen Anne to approaching ten and a half lengths in the QE II – suggesting about an 18lb improvement!

    Let us also consider the relativity with Frankel using the Queen Anne performances of Side Glance and Indomito:

    • Frankel beat Side Glance 11.25 lengths at Ascot, Excelebration beat him 7.35 lengths last week – suggesting Frankel is about a 4 lengths (or 8lb over a mile) better horse than Excelebration (see table above of head to head performances!!).

    • Frankel beat Indomito 12.25 lengths at Ascot, Excelebration beat him 10.35 lengths last week – suggesting Frankel is about a 2 lengths (or 4lb) better horse.

    I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that the Excelebration we saw saunter away with this year’s QE II was a better horse than the one Frankel was beating earlier in the season – I believe the facts stated above prove that. I await Mr Duval’s form based analysis to counter this argument and prove me wrong.

    Oh, and one other thing. Frankel ended last season on 136 and Excelebration ended it on 126 – the difference 10lbs. Their current ratings are 140 and 130 – difference 10lbs. Other than the Queen Anne, the weight conversion of Frankel’s winning distances over Excelebration are:-

    Greenham 2011 = 8lb
    St James’s Palace 2011 = 5lb
    QE II 2011 = 8lb
    Lockinge 2012 = 10lb

    How much more detail do I need to go into?

    BARNS STORMS IN CLASSIC PICTURE

    Britain’s last big two-year old race of the year is the Racing Post Trophy, writes Matthew Tester.

    In the previous 21 runnings, the median rating for winning the Doncaster showpiece is 116 and recent winners have included star performers Camelot, High Chapparal, St Nicholas Abbey, Motivator and Authorised.

    The key to this year’s renewal looked to be the excellent Steeler. He was 112 for winning the Royal Lodge but I thought that this track would suit him better than Newmarket where he seemed to get a little unbalanced on the downhill section, as he had at Goodwood.

    Just like last year, we had a once-raced Aidan O’Brien favourite in Kingsbarns who won the race in tidy style. He was kept up to his work to the line, unlike Camelot last year who spent the minimum of time off the bit and won with plenty in hand.

    Camelot was credited with 119 and my figure for Kingsbarns is just 1lb lower at 118. Steeler was caught for second on the line by the previously unbeaten Van Der Neer and each of them now gets a 114 rating. Two lengths back was the Irish Group 1 winner First Cornerstone who ran to his pre-race mark of 110 on my figures.

    There are still big races to come in the USA and in France but it still looks like Dawn Approach will be our champion when the European Handicappers sit down in December and hammer it all out.

    LADIES FIRST

    Saturday’s Group 3 Worthington Champion Shield Navigation Brewery St Simon Stakes went to a filly for the fourth time in the last seven years, this time in the shape of the improving three-year old Hazel Lavery, writes Graeme Smith.

    Charles Hill’s daughter of Excellent Art has kept listed or pattern company throughout the year and, after making the breakthrough at listed level in the Aphrodite Stakes at Newmarket in July, opened her pattern-race account with a game defeat of the Gordon Stakes-winner Noble Mission.

    Rating the race proved very straightforward with Noble Mission – who carried a 3lb penalty for his aforementioned Group 3 success – drawing two and a half lengths clear of the third-placed Songcraft, which was exactly how their pre-race marks of 113 and 106 suggested they would finish.

    That meant an improvement in Hazel Lavery’s figure from 102 to 108, which looks a very good fit according to her Park Hill form, where she was second to Wild Coco (113) and had the 108-rated Estimate a short-head behind in third. Admittedly that Doncaster race is still rated a bit below the level those fillies’ ratings suggests but that has to be the case with the steady gallop having led to several with less exalted form also finishing close up.

    The other improver from the St Simon was the fourth-placed Khione. Luca Cumani’s daughter of Dalakhani has progressed throughout her six career starts and appeared to relish the increased test of stamina that heavy conditions provided.

    While pre-race marks strongly suggested the level I settled on, race standards also made a convincing case. The average level for both the first three and first four over the last five years pointed towards 108 on the winner, whilst that for the first five was also thereabouts at 109. It doesn’t always work out that neatly of course, but I’ll certainly settle for it when it does!

    This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    So Excelebration ran to 125 all season (QA apart), but suddenly found 5lbs of improvement in the last one?

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    I rate Excelebration exactly the same this year as was last year
    he has train on this year, what is not too bad...

    I think he is a top class miler, better than horse like Rock Of Gibraltar was.

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    Roberto Goldback makes impressive start at Ascot
    WITH Phil Smith on duty at the Breeders' Cup in the States I had the honour of looking after the three-mile-plus chases last week and there were a couple of high-class performances to enjoy, writes Mark Olley.

    The first was in the competitive-looking United House Gold Cup Handicap at Ascot, which was won in impressive style by Roberto Goldback on his first start since joining Nicky Henderson.

    Roberto Goldback's cv includes several notable performances, including a two-length second in the Grade 1 Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown and unseating at the last, when one length in front, in the Grade 1 Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup.

    He arrived at Ascot with a rating of 150 and proceeded to run right away from the competitive field to win by an easy nine lengths. I based the race around the second, Duke Of Lucca (144), and called the nine lengths 13lb, so Roberto's new rating is 162.

    It is a shame that Frisco Depot came down two fences from home when travelling strongly. The way Roberto Goldback won I doubt Frisco Depot would have beaten him, but he may well have given him a sterner test. When horses fall at either of the final two fences we usually allocate them a performance figure and sometimes change their rating. However, on this occasion I decided against this as the second last was the usual third last (the former having been omitted due to being damaged in an earlier race).

    The Grand National has been mentioned as a target for Roberto Goldback, but as his new rating would have seen him carry top-weight in the last two renewals, a new Graded-race plan may now be in order.

    The second high-class performance came courtesy of Silviniaco Conti in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby.

    This was not an easy race to assess and I ended up deciding that the runner-up Wayward Prince had returned to the 150 form of his RSA Chase third two years ago. The standards for this race suggest a figure of 154 for the second horse, but I feel happier returning Wayward Prince to 150 rather than moving him to a career-high 154 at this stage.

    The above, combined with a weight concession of 5lbs and the impressive 11 length winning margin (which I called 13lbs) means that Silviniaco Conti moves to a new mark of 168. To put this into context, the only Charlie Hall winners to surpass this figure this century are Our Vic (171) in 2006 and See More Business (172) in 2000.

    Coincidently Silviniaco Conti beat the 155-rated Champion Court by 13 lengths in the Grade 2 John Smith’s Mildmay Novice Chase at Aintree last Spring – something which looks a shade too neat for my liking!

    WYLIE OLD TIDAL

    Poor old Tidal Bay has been called some names in his career but he is a high-class performer on his day and has won a further 12 races since making a winning jumps debut in 2006, writes Martin Greenwood.

    Now trained by Paul Nicholls, Tidal Bay has won all sorts of top-class races, and added another when making his reappearance in the John Smith's West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby.

    Receiving weight from three of his five rivals, Tidal Bay looked to hold an outstanding chance based on his placed effort over hurdles off a mark of 160 at Cheltenham last season, and he duly scored in convincing fashion despite displaying the unusual head carriage that has marked his career.

    With Smad Place, Cape Tribulation and last season’s winner Restless Harry all disappointing, only one-time smart performer Crack Away Jack gave Tidal Bay any sort of race, but he was soon brushed aside once Tidal Bay was persuade to put his best forward by the excellent Walsh. Rated 160 going into the race, he didn't need to run to that figure to score and
    his mark remains unchanged.

    Tidal Bay may not be everyone's cup of tea and he certainly flatters to deceive on occasions, but there's no doubting his ability and I would surmise puts a smile on his owner's face!

    RAYA STARS AT ASCOT

    The jumps season is getting into full swing and there were some decent 2m hurdle races over the weekend, writes Chris Nash.

    At Ascot there was a really competitive listed handicap which was won by Raya Star. The race was run at an honest pace and I would expect that the form will prove reliable.

    At least 12 of the 15 strong field still had a chance rounding the turn for home and a tight finish ensued. The winner was carrying top weight so this must rank as an excellent seasonal return. He was last seen in April when he won the Scottish Champion Hurdle (a handicap race) off a mark of 143. He was put up 6lbs for that so lined up on Saturday from a rating of 149.

    I have settled on another 6lb increase, which will take his mark to 155, and this will be the rating he will run off if he takes his chance in the Racing Post Hurdle (formerly the Greatwood Hurdle) at Cheltenham in a couple of weeks' time.

    Just half a length behind him was It's A Gimme, who also ran a cracker on his seasonal return. He kept galloping all the way to the line and has already proven himself over further - his mark will go up 5lb from 135 to 140 and he also holds the Racing Post entry. A further one and a half lengths behind It's A Gimme, were Claret Cloak, War Singer and Street Entertainer who were separated by just a head and a head.

    At Wetherby there was a mares' Listed hurdle, which also had a finish fought out by a couple of Racing Post Hurdle entries. The lightly raced and seemingly still progressive Une Artiste beat Alasi by two and a half lengths at level weights. The runner-up is a rock-solid performer in these types of races. She arrived here rated 138 and won this race first time out in 2011. There is no reason to think she hasn't run her race again. This has Une Artiste running a marginal career best and her rating will rise 1lb to 141.

    A word also for the performance of Lordofthehouse, his trainer, Tom George and jockey, Paddy Brennan at Wetherby.

    This horse had refused to race in his last two flat starts and was a touch reluctant to line up and jump off for his hurdling debut on Saturday. He was detached early and jumped the first couple of flights like he was still having second thoughts about his new career.

    However, he picked up the bridle going out towards the back straight and ended up winning the race tidily. In beating Falcarragh (a solid 122 performer) by five lengths at level weights he has returned a minimum figure of 127+.

    If his enthusiasm for the job can be maintained he could be an interesting recruit. Given his undoubted character and his undoubted ability he will always be an entertaining horse to keep an eye on.

    This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Brilliant Cue Card lights up Haldon Gold Cup

    It's an exciting time of year on the National Hunt scene as the real big guns emerge from their summer at grass, and the most thrilling performance of the week undoubtedly came in the Haldon Gold Cup, which is discussed in depth as this week's lead piece.

    Conversely, the sun set on the turf Flat season at Doncaster on Saturday, and the November Handicap saw the completion of one of the sports real success stories of recent years.

    CARD RIGHT ON CUE

    Cue Card secured his place among the West Country legends with a scintillating victory in last week's Haldon Gold Cup, writes John de Moraville.

    This 26-length romp in the highlight of Exeter's season not only boosted Cue Card's already substantial reputation but reinforced the widely held belief that Sprinter Sacre, his effortless conqueror in last season's Arkle Trophy at Cheltenham, is the most exciting two-miler we have seen for years.

    Whether the pair clash again - along with unbeaten trailblazer Sanctuaire - in Sandown's Tingle Creek Chase on December 8 remains to be seen but the six-year-old's trainer Colin Tizzard has long fancied a crack at Boxing Day's King George.

    Cue Card's latest victory - he has now won first time out in each of his four seasons racing - has seen his rating upped from 157 to 165. Only Sprinter Sacre (169) and Sanctuaire (166) from last season's vintage crop of novices are rated higher.

    Whereas Cue Card lit up Haldon Hill with his exuberant round of jumping, principal rivals Menorah and Edgardo Sol failed to do themselves justice.

    Menorah, sluggish from the start, was already well cooked when he took the final fence by the roots enabling Edgardo Sol to grab a remote second place. The latter had hindered his chances by persistently jumping out to his left.

    Last season, versatile Edgardo Sol showed his best form at Aintree (destroying his rivals in the Red Rum Chase) and at Cheltenham (a close second in the County Hurdle). He should again prove a force when reverting to a left-hand track.

    Early days to be talking about this season's Arkle but the admirable Overturn put down an impressive marker when soaring over Sandown's tricky fences on Saturday like an old hand.

    Sure, this was only a beginners' chase and none of his three rivals rate within two stone of his 166 over hurdles but this was the perfect start from last season's Champion Hurdle runner-up. Exciting times!


    THE WORK OF ART

    It's been quite a journey for five-year-old gelding Art Scholar, winner of Saturday's November Handicap, writes Greg Pearson.

    Originally trained by Gary Moore, he won a juvenile maiden at Bath on his debut in August 2009 and started life in handicaps with an opening mark of 93.

    Ten straight defeats later he'd plummeted 41lb to a miserly 52. Enter Michael Appleby, who reportedly picked him up for £600 in April 2011 and orchestrated five handicap wins that summer on the way to an end-of-year mark of 78.

    He commenced the 2012 season by winning at Kempton and scored again at Doncaster four starts later. Following a brief lull he returned to the winner's enclosure at Nottingham in October off a mark of 83 when impressing with the way he travelled and then lengthened.

    His previous record from marks of 83 or above read 12 starts with one third placing and 11 unplaced efforts but he clearly relishes going on the soft side of good and has continued to thrive since then, going up a further 4lb for finishing runner-up twice and then rounding the turf season off with this valuable success.

    First Mohican was a warm order as favourite with his highly-progressive profile, whilst Party Line had beaten Art Scholar at Doncaster last time, but this proved a vastly different story on revised terms.

    Moving fluently, Art Scholar was initially disappointed for a run between Communicator and Samba King 3f out but was still able to stamp his authority under replacement jockey Franny Norton, forging clear to win by three-quarters of a length from the also-progressive pair of Communicator and Voodoo Prince (a further length back in third).

    The fallout is that Art Scholar's mark his risen a further 6lb to 99 - a total increase of 50lb from where he was in June 2011. Quite a success story I think you'll agree.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Paddy Power run
    proves class of Al Ferof
    THE weekend saw the first of the National Hunt season's flagship meetings in Cheltenham's Paddy Power Open, and it offered a host of top-class jumping. Highlights of the first two days are discussed in this week's edition, and with Sunday's racing falling into the next racing week there'll be more to come next time too!

    NOT SO GRANDS
    The Paddy Power Gold Cup is usually one of the most competitive handicap chases of the season, but as Grands Crus continued to shorten in the pre-race betting I began to wonder if he was going to turn this year's race into a rout, writes Mark Olley

    He was/is undeniably well handicapped on the pick of his hurdles form, but he hadn't quite reached that level over fences despite beating some top-class rivals in small field events. He was also having his first chase outside of novice company and was tackling a big field for the first time over fences.

    During the race itself he travelled pretty well until coming under pressure before three out but then dropped out tamely. No reasons for this performance could be found immediately post-race, although he did lose a shoe, but I would be amazed if something didn't come to light once he is given a more thorough assessment back at home.

    So is he well handicapped over fences? His rating won't be changed for this run so I guess we will have to wait for another day to find out!

    Second season chasers have a fine record in the Paddy Power and with Grands Crus disappointing it was left to Al Ferof to uphold their reputation, something he did in fine style. This was Paul Nicholls' geldings first run in handicap company and by running out a decisive winner under 11st 8lb he confirmed himself a top-class 2m4f performer.

    I based the race around the runner-up Walkon who clearly runs extremely well when fresh, having won on his reappearance last season and been denied narrowly in a handicap hurdle (from a mark of 148) the previous year. I have him returning to his best chase figure of 148 - this he achieved twice last term, in novices at Exeter and Newbury.

    The above means that Al Ferof moves up 9lb to a new rating of 168. To put this into context the last five Ryanair Chase winners at the Festival have been rated 170-168-168-165-168, so this run is equal to all but one of those! Al Ferof will reportedly tackle 3m in the King George next and his season looks sure to revolve around whether he stays that longer trip. If he doesn't he must surely go very close in the Ryanair.

    One other race that I assessed last week was a novice handicap at Market Rasen which resulted in a dead-heat between Alpine Breeze and Brass Tax.

    Both Alpine Breeze and Brass Tax are six-year-old novices and as they dead-heated their ratings were obviously be given the exact same treatment - a raise of 4lb to 131 and 128 respectively. The race was a 0-135 novice handicap so neither has been raised out of that bracket and they can contest exactly the same class race next time.

    Given the above I was intrigued to read the following analysis in the next day's Racing Post:
    Alpine Breeze "...but a further rise in the weights is going to make her life really hard in handicap company."
    Brass Tax "With confidence boosted, he can win again if contesting a similar event on a sound surface."

    So both horses get the same rise, one will find life difficult while the other can win again! That does seem strange to me, though now I've highlighted this I will no doubt end up looking foolish as Brass Tax follows up and Alpine Breeze never wins another race!

    BULLET IN NO HURRY
    Friday's Cheltenham card saw the Grade 2 Opus Energy Sharp Novices' Hurdle bring together plenty of useful strands of the early season novice form, writes David Dickinson.

    That was the theory and it held good, at least until the tapes went up and then...nothing.

    Well, not quite nothing, a 17 second amble past the starting gate as it became very clear that no one wanted to lead. Ruby Walsh eventually bit the bullet on the appropriately named favourite and Dodging Bullets was soon setting a reasonable enough pace. Such form is invariably a nightmare to assess but four of the field appear to have run their pre-race marks to the pound.

    'How very convenient' you may think, but trusting literal form lines from such a falsely run race is usually folly. However, I can find no reason to not go with that assessment for the moment at least. Dodging Bullets was a reluctant leader and has not needed to run even close to his current 150 rating to win. The 131 figure I had on Court Minstrel's previous Cheltenham win now becomes his handicap mark, as does the 127 Duke of Navan achieved on his debut.

    The slight concern is that both of the above were eye-catchers to some extent on Friday. Court Minstrel found some trouble jumping the last when making his move and he left the impression that a strongly run race would suit him better. On the other hand, Duke of Navan was unconsidered in the market but he travelled really strongly in the race until just found wanting for speed in the quickening finish. His prospects will improve greatly if he eventually stays further than the minimum trip.

    Saturday's novice handicap which closed the Prestbury Park card is invariably a most informative race and this year proved no exception. Those who had witnessed Friday's Newcastle win of Eduard may well have been keen on his October conqueror Ifandbutwhynot off a mark of 117 and, despite racing wide throughout, he settled well and won with a bit in hand. It may well be that if that victory of Eduard can be taken at face value (it was Eduard's hurdling debut), Ifandbutwhynot's new mark of 130 may still prove to be workable.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Another year, another horse, same result
    Saturday saw the eighth running of the Betfair Chase at Haydock and the prize yet again made its way back to Ditcheat, with Silviniaco Conti proving an able replacement for Kauto Star as he toppled the highest-rated chaser in training. Phil Smith underlines the decisions he had to make regarding the updated pecking order in this week's lead piece.

    The week started with the final day of Cheltenham's Paddy Power Open meeting and a couple of the highlights from that are also included.

    DECISIONS DECISIONS

    The first Grade 1 chase of the 2012-13 season was a relatively straightforward race to assess in terms of performance but a difficult one to decide what rating Long Run should receive, writes Phil Smith.

    Silviniaco Conti went in on 168 and Long Run on 178 but that performance from Long Run was all the way back in February.

    Both Weird Al and The Giant Bolster went into the race on 164 and there was a short head between them. As they were 18 lengths clear of Cannington Brook on 145, it was reasonable to believe that they had performed to either 163 using a literal pounds per length back to the last horse who was on 145 or 164 if I decided Cannington Brook could have performed to 146 which he has in the past. Either way it was irrelevant to him as I was not going to raise his rating for finishing last.

    It brought Long Run out at 167/8 which was pretty good for a first run of the season. Last year Weird Al got to within two lengths of Long Run in this race so it was encouraging to see him more than double his superiority.

    I believe Silviniaco Conti won comfortably so called the winning margin 4lb and have moved his rating to 172. The biggest problem was what to do with Long Run's rating. As I had him running to 163 in the Gold Cup and under 170 here, I decided to drop him to 172 - the same as the winner. If neither run between now and the Gold Cup there will be as many people supporting one as the other and I will have them the same rating.

    In the unlikely event of them running in a handicap against each other they would carry the same weight and I think it would be difficult for the public to decide which was more likely to win.

    WHO'S COUNTING?

    It is nine years since Martin Greenwood and I took over responsibility for the hurdlers from our retiring predecessors Phil Judge and Tony Winlaw, writes David Dickinson.

    As a consequence, when history is revisited these days there is no one else to blame. Nevertheless, a recent query from a journalist as to why an Irish-trained horse 'always' won the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival did seem a tad harsh.

    In the nine County Hurdles for which I had done the majority of the handicapping, Irish trained horses have won five, although all those five have come in the last six years.

    In defence however, I would point to the starting 0rices - 10-1, 12-1, 20-1 twice and 50-1. Add to that the fact that the only one who won by more than a length was future multiple Grade 1 winner Thousand Stars and I don't feel too dismayed.

    The reason I mention this now is that the journalist in question neglected to enquire about the Racing Post Hurdle (formerly the Greatwood) which Irish-trained horses have won just twice in the same period. This year Ireland fielded seven of the 18 runners and only the third-placed Cause Of Causes made it into the first four, albeit with four more in the first nine.

    This year's renewal fell to the Tom George-trained Olofi, who was certainly not winning a major handicap out of turn. Fifth in the equivalent race in 2010 and second to Brampour last year off a 6lb lower mark, Olofi's day in the sun was briefly threatened when he was hampered turning for home but he ended up a tidy two and a half length winner.

    I used two Irish-trained horses as my markers (Rattan and Glam Gerry) and have raised Olofi 8lb to a career high of 144. This was Olofi's first run since the County Hurdle in March and it seemed to escape many people's notice just how unlucky and eventually heavily eased he was in what turned into a very rough race that day.

    No doubt, as the winter progresses the handicapping system will be accused of bias against various interest groups (novices, older horses, big trainers, small trainers, northern trainers, Irish trainers). All any of us on the team can do is our best and hope that events show us in a decent light.

    So Sunday's result of an established horse beating an ex-Irish second-season novice running for a new yard (very probably in first time earplugs), beating an Irish-trained horse beating a northern-trained horse can be regarded as satisfactory.

    However, in this job, the moment you feel the slightest bit complacent, events have a very nasty habit of kicking your backside, big time.

    STAYING ON

    There were several smart performances in the staying hurdle ranks last week and the best of all came from Trustan Times in the Grade 3 Betfair Don't Settle For Less "Fixed Brush" Handicap Hurdle at Haydock, writes Graeme Smith.

    In a competitive race, where no fewer than four took the second last in a line, Tim Easterby's six-year-old produced a strong-staying performance under top weight to assert over the unexposed Holywell after the last.

    He'd gone up 8lb to a mark of 142 following his comeback success over 2m4f at Wetherby and comes in for a similar rise to 150 now. That's not far off what's required to make an impact in some of the top staying hurdles, at least if he can avoid Big Buck's.

    Jonjo O'Neill's Holywell has yet to win from three starts in handicap company but he's improved each time and clearly relished the further step up in trip as he went down fighting. A 5lb rise to 135 means he'll get a 3lb pull with Trustan Times for this two and three-quarter lengths beating should the pair reoppose in a handicap. I used the consistent Sivola De Sivola as a guide to the strength of the form and increased his mark by just 1lb for finishing a clear third.

    It's also worth mentioning David Pipe's French import Katkeau , who had still to be asked for his effort within four lengths of the leaders when a terrible mistake three out put paid to his chance - and injured his rider. It's impossible to know how big a part he'd have played but I'm sure he'll have his supporters next time from his existing mark of 124.

    My week has been bookended by good-quality handicaps as I got off and running with the Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham, which went the way of Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Double Ross. It proved a bloodless victory too, Double Ross jumping very cleanly in front and then running away from the field after the second last, slamming Close House by an ever-increasing eight lengths.

    There was enough solid form amongst the next few home to make this a relatively straightforward race to level. On a line through Close House's fourth behind Simonsig in last season's Baring Bingham (form which is proving strong) and San Telm's recent handicap success I arrived at a rise of 12lb for Double Ross to 142, which included an extra 2lb on top of the bare margin due to the fact he was still drawing away at the line.

    I was obviously looking for a good run when Double Ross was turned out in a 2m4f handicap at Haydock on Saturday under a 7lb penalty (which meant he was 5lb well in) and feel his rise was justified by his performance even though he was unable to win.

    He again jumped very accurately for the most part out in front and was still there until making a mess of the last. Whether he'd have held on without that mistake is impossible to know - he tired markedly on the run-in - but there's no doubt in my mind that he was still on a good mark.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Steve

    As I had him running to 163 in the Gold Cup and under 170 here,

    so it wasn't brain surgery after all

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    Sacre simply superb
    in Tingle Creek blitz
    Sprinter Sacre might have missed his prep at Cheltenham three weeks back, but the highest-rated novice chaser in classifications history nevertheless gave an imperious performance in Saturday's Tingle Creek.

    He's had the headline writers reaching for superlatives all weekend and John de Moraville takes this opportunity to quantify what he actually achieved. Sandown wasn't the only flagship card to take place over the weekend and the other highlights are also discussed.

    SACRE-STONISHING

    Sprinter Sacre has swept to the top of this season's steeplechase rankings with his stunning Tingle Creek demolition job at Sandown on Saturday, writes John de Moraville.

    No sooner had one superstar, Kauto Star - a dual Tingle Creek winner himself - slipped gracefully into retirement than Sprinter Sacre grabbed the spotlight with an awesome exhibition of pace, power and precision.

    In truth, the much anticipated duel with Sanctuaire never really materialised. The trailblazer's sting had been drawn before the Pond Fence three from home and from there on it was the Sprinter Sacre show as, to the roar of the crowd, the unbeaten six-year-old, with Barry Geraghty motionless, turned the race into a procession.

    Already the highest-rated novice chaser (169) in classifications history, Sprinter Sacre extended his mark on Saturday to 179 - the same performance figure recorded by Moscow Flyer in his legendary Tingle Creek victory of 2004.

    That stirring success was gained at the expense of Azertyuiop and Well Chief, both rated 178 and champions themselves in most other years, and will never be forgotten by those lucky enough to witness it.

    Moscow Flyer went on to hit the magic 180 at Cheltenham the following March. And, while Saturday's race did not possess the strength in depth of that epic of eight years ago, there is no reason why Sprinter Sacre, who strode majestically around the Sandown parade ring as if he owned the place, should not go on to rate even higher.

    And you would not bet against him threatening the 186 achieved by Master Minded in his mind-boggling 19 lengths Cheltenham thrashing of the previous year's champion Voy Por Ustedes in 2008.

    With Sprinter Sacre on his tail, Sanctuaire ran over a stone below the 166 of his Celebration Chase rout at Sandown last spring. His efforts to stretch the 4-11 favourite left him cooked before the final fence, allowing the admirable but inferior Kumbeshwar, in the field to pick up third-place money, to exceed connections' expectations and, at the same time, notch a career-best 150.

    Reflecting on Sprinter Sacre's seven-length Racing Post Arkle Trophy saunter in March, it was always odds-on that he would leave last season's 169 behind. Consider the next three home in that festival showpiece - Cue Card, Menorah and Al Ferof.

    Respectively, they have since won the Haldon Gold Cup (by twenty-six lengths!), Aintree's Grade 1 Manifesto Chase and Cheltenham's Paddy Power Gold Cup. That represents astonishing form...and Sprinter Sacre never came off the bridle!

    While never likely to hit the rarefied heights of his celebrated stable-companion, Captain Conan maintained an exemplary start to his fencing career with a fluent all-the-way win in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase.

    Running to a mark of 152, the admirable five-year-old negotiated the tricky Sandown fences like an old hand to strongly advertise his own Arkle claims.

    While he may not be his stable's first string for that event, Captain Conan already has smart chase form on the board, whereas the exciting Simonsig, rated 160 over hurdles, is due to open his first innings over fences at Ascot before Christmas.

    BEST BUD

    With Phil Smith away it fell to me to assess the 3m+ chases this week and the highlight was the Betfred Becher Handicap Chase at Aintree on Saturday, writes Mark Olley.

    Nigel Twiston-Davies' veteran Hello Bud came with a fine record over the National fences and gained his second Becher success in really game fashion as he held on all out from Join Together. Very few 14-year-olds are still in training and even fewer win races, so it was grand to see he's still a force at such a ripe old age.

    The race was relatively easy to assess with less than three lengths covering the first five. Hello Bud moves up 3lb from the 130 he raced from here to a new figure of 133 (the figure he won this race from in 2010), while Join Together moves up 2lb to a figure of 150. Aintree stalwart Big Fella Thanks stays where he is on 145, and I expect this is his ideal race as he doesn't seem to quite get home over 4m4f in the National.

    The National was mentioned for Hello Bud in some post-race reports, but the lowest rated horse in last year's race was 137, so I imagine he would need to win again to ensure he makes the field.

    If the National winner was in this race then it could be Join Together. He is rising eight, stays really well and has a touch of class - as last year's form with Silviniaco Conti and Champion Court confirms.

    Another performance worth mentioning was Bold Sir Brian at Sandown on Friday. I am not planning to raise his rating from 155 for this effort as I don't think Pacha Du Polder stayed this longer 3m trip and I wouldn't want to raise Triolo D'Alene from 136 for finishing third.

    The Gold Cup was put up in the Racing Post as an option for this season. That may come a bit soon as his jumping is still a bit novicey, but he is a likeable sort with great potential and I can see him making the top grade given time.

    MAKING THEIR NAME

    There were several smart performances in the middle-distance hurdle races over the last week, writes Chris Nash.

    In the Grade 2 Winter Novices Hurdle at Sandown on Friday Taquin Du Seuil shaped like a horse of considerable promise when not having to be fully extended to take the prize. He beat a last-time-out winner in the shape of Le Bec by six lengths with a further six lengths back to Southfield Theatre in third. Le Bec gets an opening hurdle rating of 130 and as Taquin du Seuil received 4lb from him he ran a bare figure of 132+.

    It is not always easy to assess the ease of a victory, but I have little doubt that the margin could have been five lengths further at least and so the winner will be rated 137. His victory paid a compliment to the form of My Tent Or Yours who beat him at Ascot last time out and both horses have the potential to take high rank amongst this season's novices.

    At Aintree on Saturday there was a dazzling performance in the 2m4f handicap by Bear's Affair. Lining up off a mark of 140 and carrying top weight he fairly cruised home by 10 lengths. The ground on the hurdles course at Aintree did look to be riding particularly testing, which can exaggerate the margins between horses but it was hard not to be impressed by the manner of this victory.

    I have no doubt that the performance warrants a double figure rise and settled on a 12lb addition to a mark of 152. Bear's Affair had embarked on a novice chasing career this time last year but failed to win in three runs. His victory on Saturday, however, took his record over hurdles to four wins from four runs and his form has a very progressive look to it.

    Another terrific weight-carrying performance was put up by Kentford Grey Lady. She too lugged top weight (11st 12lb) to victory, this time at Sandown. She was last seen chasing home Quevega at Cheltenham and lined up on Saturday with a rating of 135.

    The race looked competitive beforehand (as betting of 4-1 the field seemed to confirm) and plenty of the field of ten had a chance turning in. The winner prevailed by two and a quarter lengths from One Lucky Lady with a short head back to Tempest Lady in third, and it is fair to assume that Justazippy would also have been involved but for capsizing at the last. With a competitive enough finish achieved there is no need for major reconstructive surgery to the ratings of those involved.

    The winner will go up 4lb to a mark of 139 and the unlucky Justazippy will incur a 3lb rise having been rated as likely to finish a close second but for her mishap. Connections indicated that another crack at Quevega at Cheltenham next year was again part of their plans.

    This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    for a 15 length win he has given SS a superiority of 29lbs????

    personally i think SS might be a 200/210 horse..but if i was paid to give horses ratings i couldn't justify 179..purely on Kumbeshar being so close

    like i said earlier..my opinion of how much a horse has in hand will differ from everyone else's..I can't see how you can just pull a figure out of the air like that without some reasoning behind it simply because a horse going easily can find a number of things..bugger all or lots being two of them

    Before the race it was clear that Sanctuaire has never shown his best before the new year...so whatever he did Saturday was unlikely to represent his true rating...as a rating tool he doesn't exist in this race
    Last edited by EC1; 11th December 2012 at 5:07 PM.

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    Kumbeshawar is unexposed and it is early to know how good is he

    Sprinter is impossible to rate on Saturdays performance, he could have won by 10 or 20 or 30 legnths more, difficult to know
    Last edited by sunybay; 11th December 2012 at 5:57 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sunybay View Post
    Kumbeshawar is unexposed and it is early to know how good is he

    Sprinter is impossible to rate on Saturdays performance, he could have won by 10 or 20 or 30 legnths more, difficult to know
    Kumbeshwar is an open book. He's has 20 starts in Jumps races, and a dozen over fences including Saturday. He ran to consistent marks in the low 140's in each of his six pervious chase starts, but we're now expected to believe be's improved a half-stone?

    And even if we were to accept the half-stone phantom improvement, how the handicapper arrives at 179 for SS for 15L against an animal be himself rates 150, is the next elephant in the room.

    There must be a new Super-Handicapper working for the BHA; an advanced being who thinks in an additional dimension where all these numbers stack up.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

  16. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by sunybay View Post
    Kumbeshawar is unexposed and it is early to know how good is he

    Sprinter is impossible to rate on Saturdays performance, he could have won by 10 or 20 or 30 legnths more, difficult to know
    Is he that unexposed? And he was beaten 10 lengths at Chepstow in a weak handicap off a mark of 144.

  17. #137
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Colin Phillips quoting John De Moraville View Post
    Already the highest-rated novice chaser (169) in classifications history, Sprinter Sacre extended his mark on Saturday to 179 - the same performance figure recorded by Moscow Flyer in his legendary Tingle Creek victory of 2004.

    That stirring success was gained at the expense of Azertyuiop and Well Chief, both rated 178 and champions themselves in most other years, and will never be forgotten by those lucky enough to witness it.

    Moscow Flyer went on to hit the magic 180 at Cheltenham the following March. And, while Saturday's race did not possess the strength in depth of that epic of eight years ago, there is no reason why Sprinter Sacre, who strode majestically around the Sandown parade ring as if he owned the place, should not go on to rate even higher.

    And you would not bet against him threatening the 186 achieved by Master Minded in his mind-boggling 19 lengths Cheltenham thrashing of the previous year's champion Voy Por Ustedes in 2008.
    There is the explanation.

    In translation:

    He's obviously as good as anything we've seen but hasn't yet won the QM so we'll rate him alongside one of the best previous winnners of this race regardless of how the form lines stack up and expect him to be at least as good as previous top winners of the QM.

    Which is pretty much what most of us are saying.

    I had SS on 170++ going into the race and will probably have him on 169++ for that performance. I had Sanctuaire on 160++ but he'll be below 150 for his. That was one race.

    I don't imagine anyone believed Shergar ran to form when beaten by Cut Above so why should anyone believe Sanctuaire ran to form when beaten by Kumbeshwar.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 11th December 2012 at 10:21 PM.
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  18. #138
    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Agreed, DO.

    It's a summary of how that 179 sits in a historical context. It merely states the rating as fact, and then gives a list of horses of similar merit.

    In fact, it strikes me also that he's rated the race rather than the form; perhaps equating any type of 'command performance' very highly by default, simply because it's the Tingle Creek and it 'always throws superlative winners'?

    If that's the case, it might go some say to explaining the litany of bizarre (my view) OR's that he launches about the the top-end of the spectrum.
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 11th December 2012 at 10:33 PM.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

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  19. #139
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    What are the ratings experts verdicts on the 173 dished out to Flemenstar by Timeform?
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  20. #140
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Somewhat surprised there still isn't a p attached to it.

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