The thoughts of the handicappers.

[Desert Orchid]

Or any race at Haydock in deep ground.

Look at the ridiculous rating Bristol De Mai got.

Extreme-conditions form is always open to question regardless of the venue.

How many punters would actually back BDM to repeat the form anywhere else, though? Aintree, maybe, in equally deep ground?

And how many wouldn't back him to repeat it at Haydock in the same conditions?

Royale Pagaille impressed at both Kempton and Haydock, first on good ground then in heavy. I would be prepared to forgive him last week's run.

Whether he would beat the front three in the Gold Cup on his best form is another matter.

[Perpetual]

Back To Black
13 Apr 21

Rachael Blackmore has enjoyed a season to remember in the UK and topped it off by becoming the first female jockey to win the Randox Grand National, writes Martin Greenwood…

In a bizarre race for the domestic runners, with only three of them finishing out of twenty-two challengers, it was left to the Irish to dominate and Minella Times came to the fore, seeing off fellow Irish challengers Balko des Flo (100/1) and Any Second Now (after winning over the minimum distance last time out). That trio pulled away from Burrows Saint, who had travelled as well as any before fading late.

Like Any Second Now, Minella Times was another example of how some of the Irish challengers warmed up for the race. Having run only twice over 3m+ in his career, he had finished second in a red-hot handicap at Leopardstown over 21f on his previous start, and it clearly shows that you don’t have to run over marathon trips to prove your worth for a modern Grand National. Minella Times scored off 146 though was 4 lb well in, not that the extra few lbs would have made any difference to the result. His new rating is 162 (with further progress probable), while Balko des Flos rises from 152 to 161, though he of course was near high-class in his pomp. Any Second Now also posted a personal best of 159 off a mark of 152 (though 3lb well in) and did amazingly well given a bad blunder followed by being badly hampered around halfway stopped him in his tracks.

Despite the Irish running riot, the UK challenger Cloth Cap went off hot favourite following his impressive Kelso win after the weights came out, which put him a stone well in. Things seemed to be going promisingly for just over a circuit but he stopped quickly and reportedly made a noise. With the Kelso second Aso also disappointing subsequently, I have re-jigged that race by 5 lbs so Cloth Cap will now race off 157 rather than 162 next time after competing off 148 at Aintree.

Earlier in the week, Clan des Obeaux added another big prize to his illustrious career by demolishing the field in the Betway Bowl Chase. It is difficult to know exactly how good this horse is, even after all these years, but certainly on a fast, flat track he can be devastating. Visually, his twenty-one length victory in the 2019 King George was easily his best effort prior to the Bowl, but his efforts in between have suggested he is worth a rating in the high 160s/low 170s at best. Either he needs a specific set of circumstances to show his very best form, or the two races he has won by twenty+ lengths have somehow fallen apart to varying degrees. Only Clondaw Castle could give him any sort of race at the business end of the Bowl, but Clan des Obeaux soon put him to bed to saunter home by 26 lengths. Clan des Obeaux’s highest ever rating was 173 compared to his pre-race rating of 169. Hopefully we will get to see him again before the end of the season, and short term he has been pencilled in at 172.

Fakir d’Oudairies franks Ryanair form

The Marsh Melling Chase was won in emphatic style by Fakir d’Oudairies who recorded an overdue second Grade 1 success, writes Michael Harris…

This looks to be a career-best performance for the six-year-old who had a smooth passage through the race and quickened away from his rivals impressively to win by a comfortable eleven lengths. He was last seen when a distant twelve lengths second to Allaho at the Cheltenham Festival and this form pays a big compliment to the merit of that rival.

On a form line through Itchy Feet (third) and looking at race standards, a minimum figure in the mid-160s would be appropriate for Fakir d’Oudairies before any ease of victory is taken into account, and I have settled on a rating of 168. This is in line with the average performance recorded by the winner of this race across the last four renewals, but below the ten-year average of 172. This is a trend we have seen for the level of the race in recent seasons, with the exception being Min’s dominant performance in 2019 (171).

Runner-up Nuts Well did not get much luck in running and although he would have been no match for the winner regardless, it was another fine effort on the back of a fantastic run of handicap form which had seen his rating rise from 130 to 159 for winning five of his previous six starts. He took the step up in grade in his stride and is a credit to connections.

The SSS Super Alloys Manifesto Novices’ Chase was won by a rejuvenated Protektorat who produced a career-best effort under a change of tactics. He had been given a wind operation since a below-par effort at Kelso in February, and with his usual hood left off and a tongue tie added, he was able to produce the sort of form he had promised earlier in the season. Historical standards would suggest a mark in the mid-150s and that would align with the pre-race marks for The Shunter (second, 153) and Hitman (third, 151) who both looked to run their races, though if The Shunter’s jumping had been better in the latter stages of the race it may well have been a much closer battle with the winner.

I have given Protektorat a rating of 154 which is below the five-year average figure of 157 at this stage, but I would expect the first three to all improve upon what they have achieved this season in the future.

Workmanlike success for top 2m novice Shishkin

Shishkin completed the Cheltenham-Aintree double and maintained his unbeaten record over fences when winning the Grade 1 Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase, but he didn’t produce a performance which suggested that any increase in his rating was warranted, writes Chris Nash…

Shishkin’s pre-race mark of 169 saw him rated 19 lbs and upwards clear of the other four runners so he was going to have to beat them by a long way to enhance his rating. He ended up taking this by three and a quarter lengths from Funambule Sivola with a performance that would have to be described as workmanlike rather than wildly impressive, even though it looked a shade cosy come the line. The Maghull usually has a small field so historical standards won’t be rock solid but they suggest a figure of 160-163 for the winner. I went at the bottom end of that range and had Shishkin running a figure 160+, though his mark of 169 will remain unchanged. The runner-up deserves a favourable mention having started his chase career in November off a mark of 112. He has been successful in four of his six handicap starts and had advanced to a rating of 149 prior to Aintree. This run represented further progress and his revised rating will be 156.

Monmiral eclipses Quilixios in juvenile rankings

The Grade 1 Doom Bar Anniversary 4-y-o Hurdle may well prove to be the defining race when it comes to acclaiming this season’s Champion Juvenile, writes Mark Olley…

Adagio finished an excellent three and a quarter lengths second to Quilixios in the JCB Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham and he repeated that finishing position here, albeit beaten further. He travelled smoothly into the race and came with every chance at the last, but he fluffed his lines at the flight and that sealed his fate – his rating remains unchanged on 147. Monmiral stretched his unbeaten record to five with a seven and a half-length success, and although his task was made easier by Adagio’s mistake at the last, he was in no way fortunate and powered away for a decisive win. In normal circumstances, over this trip and ground, the seven and a half-length winning margin would equate to 8 lb, but I scaled it back to 6 lb due to Adagio’s error at the last. Monmiral’s new rating of 153 makes him the leading juvenile hurdler in GB and Ireland as things stand. That figure is some way clear of the 149 Pentland Hills recorded when winning this race in 2019 and matches the ratings of Apple’s Jade (2016, in receipt of the mares’ allowance), Grumeti (2012) and Walkon (2009).

The Grade 1 Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle was won by Belfast Banter who continued his remarkable improvement. This was his twelfth run of the season, which started in defeat in a maiden hurdle at Bellewstown last July. He finished a creditable fifth in an Ascot Grade 3 handicap off a rating of 129 in December before winning the County Hurdle at Cheltenham (off the same rating), and I now have him on 146 after showing another big chunk of improvement, although his official end of season rating will be ratified in the Anglo-Irish classification next month.

The race was awarded Grade 1 status in 2016 when won by Buveur D’Air (157) and this is easily the lowest winning rating in the period since.

Stayers success for consistent Thyme Hill

The Grade 1 Ryanair Liverpool Stayers Hurdle assembled the best of this season’s British staying hurdlers, writes Gordan Markham…

Unfortunately, Paisley Park was pulled up entering the home straight having ran flat and was possibly feeling the effects of a hard race at Cheltenham. That left Thyme Hill and Roksana to battle out a tremendous finish and mark themselves down as two of the best three staying hurdlers in the country. A rating in the low 160s is par for this race in recent times and Thyme Hill recorded a comparable figure of 161 in taking this year’s renewal with a battling performance from the last to get on top of the gallant and consistent Roksana close home. Thyme Hills’ overall rating remains unchanged on 162, a figure he achieved when narrowly defeated by Paisley Park (remains on 163) in the Long Walk at Ascot.

Roksana has been a credit to connections this season and I have her once again reproducing her best figure of 153. Thomas Darby (third) was stepping up to 3m returned to graded company and performed with plenty of credit, earning a figure of 156 (+3) for this performance.

On the same day, My Drogo produced an impressive performance in landing the Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle. Stepping up to 20f for the first time under a patient ride, My Drogo made his challenge on the home turn and soon began to assert his authority on the field before pulling well clear from the last to win comfortably. Previous winners of this contest have ranged from 156 Simonsig (2012) to 148 Lac Fontana (2014). Given the authority of the victory, I have no hesitation in having My Drogo performing at the upper end of that range on 155, which makes him the highest-rated British novice this season and behind only Cheltenham winners Appreciate It (161) and Bob Olinger (159) in the overall novice standings. My Drogo had bypassed Cheltenham and the form of his previous victory at Kelso was further boosted this week by the performance of Do Your Job who finished second in the 2m Grade 1 contest and is now rated 143.

Minella Drama attempted to close the winner down in the home straight but always looked like coming off second best. He has been consistent all season and ran to a career best of 143 when taking the rearranged Sidney Banks at Market Rasen last time out. That form has been boosted subsequently by the runner-up and I have him replicating that figure. Ballyadam was the disappointment of the race stepping up in trip on the back of his second in the Supreme. He looked in trouble jumping three out with connections reporting this may have come too soon for him.

Friday saw the turn of the staying novices in the Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle and although the race produced a shock 66/1 winner, the form appears to stack up well – runner-up Bravemansgame was up in trip after his third in the Ballymore, whilst Oscar Elite (third) and Streets Of Doyen (fourth) had finished second and third in the Albert Bartlett. Point winner Ahoy Senor had raced only once previously over hurdles, winning a maiden at Ayr, and he controlled the race from the front. He earns a figure of 152 for this victory, matching the standard set by the previous two winners Santini and Champ, and looks a stayer of potential moving forwards. 152 has him a pound behind the Albert Bartlett winner Vanillier and is the second best performance by a staying novice this season.

The 20f Aintree Hurdle looked a tight affair on pre-race ratings, though half the field were unproven over the trip. Abacadabras, fresh after an early tumble in the Champion Hurdle, was one of those up in trip and looked suited by it, travelling strongly through the contest but seeming to idle once hitting the front. He earned a figure of 159 which is in line with recent winners of this race. Second and third positions were filled by horses stepping out of handicaps, Buzz (+3 to 156) and the unexposed Millers Bank (+7 to 154), and both produced career bests up in trip. Buveur D’Air remains unchanged on 158 after finishing fourth as he arguably shaped second best on the day. Racing a touch freely, he was left in front too soon down the back when Jason The Militant departed and then inconvenienced at the third last by the loose horse, only fading late on.

[archie]

With the concerns raised about discrepancies between UK and Irish handicap marks, this article from 2003 makes interesting reading:
https://www.irishracing.com/news?hea...ised&prid=8343

[Desert Orchid]

The UK handicappers cited medians as the reason for raising the ratings of hurdlers just before the festival. They said they'd got the median hurdles rating between the two authorities at a variance of about 5lbs, hence the upward adjustment of the Irish runners based around that starting point.

They said there was no real difference between the chasers hence not so much of an adjustment with them.

I'm no statistician but this strikes me as flawed.

I can see how it can be used as a starting point but I think they really need to dig deeper.

I imagine it would be like comparing median 'ratings' if they existed in the EPL and then comparing them with the Bundesliga. Your average EPL player wouldn't get near a Budlesliga team.

I don't know the figures but I imagine the horse population in Ireland is vastly greater than in Britain. This leads to bigger fields in handicaps, making them more competitive, and the considerably higher prize money means more are likely to be trying.

However, it seems if at the end of a good handicap the finishers are fairly close to each other the handicapper is basically deemed to have done his job and future adjustments to marks are limited, simply because they didn't win by much.

There's a similar scenario in some of the better Flat handicaps in this country, especially the sprints. The likes of the Wokingham and Stewards' Cup can have tightly-packed finishes and the winner sometimes only goes up 5lbs. But they are hugely competitive races and it might be that the tenth horse has in fact beaten his mark, only to be swamped by better-handicapped rivals.

I think that in Ireland in some of these big-field handicaps, some of the well-beaten horses may have run better than their mark but the nature of the race and the handicapping system allow adjustments to be far lower than truly merited.

It's also probably true that the Irish trainers only send them over here if they genuinely believe the handicappers have got the marks wrong. The BHA adjustment offsets the imbalance to an extent but obviously it's nowhere near enough.

As a slight aside, needless to say I'm going high with my ratings for both the Aintree and Fairyhouse nationals. I reckon the latter race might end up being important for next year's National.

[Perpetual]

Stamina to the fore in Epsom Classics
09 Jun 21

There were three Group 1 races run over 12f at Epsom at the weekend, the Coral Coronation Cup, the Cazoo Oaks and the Cazoo Derby. Throughout the year many 12f races are relatively slowly run and develop into sprints over the final three to four furlongs. However, the three Epsom races were notably strongly run, and that combined with the rain-softened ground provided a different test for many of the horses involved, with the emphasis firmly on stamina, writes Mark Olley…

Despite the relatively small field the Coronation Cup was well up to standard with four of the six runners rated between 117 and 120 beforehand, and if I’m honest, it was the race out of the three Group 1s that I was particularly looking forward to. For once the Aidan O’Brien horses didn’t really fire and it was left to the GB runners to provide a truly memorable finish.

Pyledriver and Al Aasy have different profiles, but despite their different routes getting here they are both now high-class middle-distance performers. Last year Pyledriver won the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot and the Great Voltigeur at York (both Group 2’s). He also finished a close third in the St Leger as well as contesting the Derby and Champion Stakes – a pretty full season. Al Aasy, on the other hand, missed the remainder of the season after disappointing at Glorious Goodwood but bounced back to demolish lesser rivals in a couple of Group 3’s at Newbury this spring, cruising through both races and giving the impression that he had developed into something special.

Friday’s race was truly run from the start and just as Highland Chief wanted to take a breather around halfway, Martin Dwyer took over on Pyledriver and made sure the race was a real test. It was a bold move from a jockey who clearly knows his horse (he has ridden him in all but one of his twelve races) and had confidence in his stamina to see the race out. Al Aasy travelled well into the race from off the pace and his sustained run down the outside looked a winning one as he went into the lead entering the final furlong. Pyledriver, however, seemed to look across as his rival came by and just refused to be beaten. A memorable finish and the delight on William Muir’s face at winning his first Group 1 was lovely to see.

As a result Pyledriver moves to a new rating of 121 (+4) with Al Aasy on 120. That is some way short Ghaiyyath’s 127 last year when the race was run at Newmarket, but compares favourably with Highland Reel (121) in 2017 and is higher than both Defoe (118) in 2019 and Cracksman (115) in 2018.

The Oaks took place just over an hour later and was run in a very similar overall time (0.44 seconds slower), however, the races unfolded in differing ways. Mystery Angel set a strong early pace, but slowed noticeably around halfway before kicking again around Tattenham Corner and coming over to the stands rail. This is emphasised by Snowfall running the final two furlongs of the race around 2.3 seconds faster than Pyledriver did in the Coronation Cup.

Snowfall eventually won by a record sixteen-length winning margin, and such was her dominance that it makes a rating to the exact pound hard to be definitive about. Having consulted with Irish handicapper Garry O’Gorman, who will publish Snowfall’s official figure, we agreed on 120 which has only Love last year and Enable in 2017 (both ran to 122) higher amongst Oaks winners this century.

The poundage used for a race run at that pace on softish ground is scaled back slightly and means that Mystery Angel retains her pre-rating rating of 100. Considering the pace she set she did remarkably well to hold on for second and there is a chance that rating slightly undervalues her – time will tell!

The Derby was run in a similar style to the Oaks, but on drying ground and the runners stayed to the far rail up the straight. Several of the more fancied horses failed to really fire through stamina limitations, inability to handle the track or injury, but we were still left with an impressive winner in Adayar.


Adayar sat just behind the strong pace, got a dream run up the rail at a crucial time and powered clear for a decisive victory. He came into the race rated 107 after finishing just over a length second to Third Realm in the Novibet Lingfield Derby Trial, but left that form well behind with a strong staying performance. Connections had reportedly been considering the Queens Vase and St Leger, but he deserves his chance in the top 12f races now with his new rating of 121.

Historically that makes him a better than average Derby winner. 121 puts him below the likes of Golden Horn (125 in 2015) and Camelot (124 in 2012) at this stage, but compares favourably with recent winners Serpentine (120), Anthony Van Dyck (118) and Wings Of Eagles (119).

Mojo Star has now finished second on all three career starts and with an opening mark of 114 is the highest rated maiden in training!

[Perpetual]

Poetry in motion in St James’s Palace
22 Jun 21

The title of European Champion Miler (and possibly World Champion Miler) is up for grabs and the current holder of the crown, Palace Pier, showed he isn’t about to relinquish it without a fight with a third straight win for the year in the traditional Royal meeting opener, the Queen Anne Stakes, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill…

With a pre-race rating of 125, John Gosden’s colt went into the race with 5 lb and more in hand of his ten rivals and didn’t need to run to that level in recording a workmanlike one- and-a-half-lengths success on ground that was probably plenty fast enough for him. I have credited him with a performance of 121 on the day, which is the best winning performance in the race since Ribchester’s 123 in 2017, with the placed efforts of Lope Y Fernandez (second, 117), Sir Busker (third, 115) and Lord Glitters (fourth, 114) being well up to scratch for the contest.


Under two hours later the admirable Poetic Flare, contesting his fourth Group 1 in six weeks, emerged as the best of the three-year-old milers seen so far this year and laid down his marker with a personal best of 122 in recording a commanding success in the St James’s Palace. His winning distance of four and a quarter lengths is the longest in the race since my personal records began at the turn of the century. In contrast to the Queen Anne, the placed efforts of Lucky Vega (second, 113) and Battleground (third, 112) would be considered slightly below par for the race, but such was the authority of Poetic Flare’s win that his performance is the best in the contest since Kingman’s 124 in 2014.

A clash of the generations between him and Palace Pier in something like the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood next month would be a race to savour.

As far as comparative contests for the fillies were concerned, the three-year-old might just have edged that as well. The weather had its say as far as Friday’s racing was concerned but despite the Coronation Stakes being run on officially heavy ground, the “right” horses still came to the fore with Andrew Balding’s Alcohol Free notching a personal best of 115 in beating Snow Lantern (second, 112), 1000 Guineas winner Mother Earth (third, 111) and impressive German 1000 Guineas winner Novemba (fourth, 110).

Two days earlier Indie Angel showed around 11 lbs of improvement on her previous best to land the Duke of Cambridge with a performance of 114, beating the better fancied, but penalised, pair of Lady Bowthorpe (second, 112) and Queen Power (third, 112). Her victory appeared to lend credence to the suggestion that there was a stands-side track bias, but that was subsequently put to bed by the far-side success of Real World (+14 lb from 94 to 108) in the Hunt Cup and Chipotle in the Windsor Castle.
Up at 10f, Love made a successful seasonal reappearance with victory in the Prince of Wales’s, getting the better of Audarya (117) after making just about all – her winning figure of 119 is 3 lb below her best of last year but it should set her up nicely for the big middle-distance prizes in the second half of the season.

Other performances to note in my core 8-10 furlong bracket were Juan Elcano (114) in winning the Listed Wolferton Stakes and Mohaafeth (112) in the Hampton Court.

Perseverance pays off for Dream of Dreams

‘If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again’ seems a most apt phrase for Dream of Dreams success in the 6f Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes, writes Stewart Copeland…

Having finished runner-up in previous two renewals of the race, it was a case of third time lucky for the admirable seven-year-old gelding. Being one of two proven winners at Group 1 level in the twelve-strong field, Dream of Dreams justified favouritism in coming home a length clear of Glen Shiel, his fellow previous winner at this level, with Art Power a further three quarters of a length back in third.

From a ratings perspective, the form has a solid and straightforward look to it with the first three home running right up to the level they displayed in some of the top sprints last season, and arguably fractionally above the standard we would expect for a 6f Group 1 sprint in Britain.

That means both Dream of Dreams and Glen Shiel retain their pre-race ratings of 120 and 117 respectively. The former currently heads the 6f sprint division and will have a leading chance in the July Cup at Newmarket, but hot on his heels are some progressive three-year-olds who also advertised their claims at the Royal meeting.

Firstly, in the 6f Group 1 Commonwealth Cup, Campanelle and Dragon Symbol fought out an exciting finish, with the latter initially prevailing by a head. However, the result was reversed in the stewards’ room after Dragon Symbol was demoted for causing interference to Campanelle.

In pulling a healthy five lengths clear of what looked a competitive field, both showed themselves fully up to standard for the race, and if anything, a case might be made for rating the race higher still. For now, the filly Campanelle – gaining her second success at the Royal Meeting after winning the Queen Mary last year – has been credited with 113 and the highly progressive Dragon Symbol 116. Both look strong contenders for the July Cup, a race that will surely come under consideration for another of the year’s most progressive three-year-old sprinters, Rohaan.

If Dragon Symbol is highly progressive, Rohaan’s progression since winning off a mark of 55 in class 6 company in December 2020 is arguably stratospheric. Having narrowly defeated Dragon Symbol in the 6f Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock last month, he lined up in the 6f Wokingham Handicap with a rating of 112 (being a gelding he was ineligible for the Commonwealth Cup). Held up in rear off a strong pace – they went quicker to halfway by nearly half a second than in the Diamond Jubilee – he came through with his customary late charge to lead close home, winning by a neck. This represents further improvement to a figure of 116, and given his profile, it would surprise nobody if more were to come.

All in all, the domestic sprint scene is bubbling up nicely. When you consider my 5f colleague had last year’s July Cup winner, Oxted, running to 119 in winning the Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes, there promises to be a lot to look forward to at the July Course and beyond in the coming months.

Stradivarius Unlucky? It’s All Subjective

Staying star Stradivarius was unfortunate to endure a rough passage while attempting to match Yeats’ achievement of winning four consecutive Gold Cups, but that shouldn’t detract from an impressive win from Subjectivist in a good-quality renewal, writes Adam Barnes…

In the aftermath of this year’s Gold Cup, there was understandably much comment on the troubled passage endured by Stradivarius, as well as plenty of justified praise for the ride Joe Fanning gave to the winner. The main focus, however, should surely be on the emergence of a potential new star on the staying scene, with Mark Johnston’s Subjectivist putting in a dominant performance in a fascinating renewal of this historic race.

While it is true to a degree that Subjectivist had the run of the race relative to the trio that followed him home, this was certainly no fluke. The winner sat close to what was a pretty solid pace overall, and the way in which he went clear on the bridle on the home turn was impressive, as was the way in which he just kept galloping from there, nothing able to seriously threaten him – and if anything, he was going further clear from runner-up Princess Zoe in the closing stages.

The time was good, the first four came pleasingly clear of the rest, and there is plenty of substance to the form, with Princess Zoe, Spanish Mission and Stradivarius between them having collected many of the big staying prizes over the past year. As such, I have taken a positive view of the race and now have Subjectivist on a rating of 122 (from 117). That is quite a high rating for a Gold Cup winner, matching the highest figure Yeats recorded in his four wins in the race, and only bettered this century by Stradivarius when he romped to a ten-length win last year. As a young horse with a sharply progressive profile, and a positive, straightforward running style, Subjectivist is very much one to be excited about, and until shown otherwise he now looks the one to beat in all the big staying races.

It was a shame that Stradivarius had a troubled run, shuffled back as the race was taking shape on the home turn, but his response when in the clear lacked any real zip, and suggests it was more a case of being unlucky not to finish a bit closer rather than being unlucky not to give the winner a real race. Sectionals show that both his final furlong time, and his final three-furlong split, were a fair bit slower than the winner’s. That is now four defeats from Stradivarius’ last five starts, and while it is not hard to make excuses of sorts for each of those losses, he no longer looks the dominant stayer that he has been in recent years. Stradivarius is now rated 121 (down from 125, which was a standout figure from his 2020 Gold Cup win), 1 lb behind Subjectivist. The prospect of a rematch between the pair at Goodwood is certainly something to look forward to, however.

Quick Suzy lives up to her name

Royal Ascot is always an informative week in the two-year-old division as lots of the best form lines come together, but by the close of the week we were still waiting for the first 110+ performance of the year, writes Graeme Smith..

The Coventry Stakes is often seen as the most likely stage for a headline act but with the first thirteen home covered by little over five lengths – at the end of a truly-run race – it’s hard to escape the view that the form of the principals is a little way short of the usual standard.

The average Coventry-winning performance in the five years prior to the Covid-hit 2020 season was 112 and Berkshire Shadow posted a performance of just 106 on my figures. It would have been easy to rate the race more in line with the usual level for the principals but that would lead to a knock-on to those that finished close-up in mid-division.

There remains potential among the field, of course. Berkshire Shadow had overcome clear greenness to make a winning start at Newbury and has reached a good figure for one who’s raced only twice – and he remains unbeaten. If there was any advantage to be had in racing close to the stand rail at that stage of the week then runner-up Eldrickjones can be marked up from his 103 performance (not yet eligible for a handicap mark), and he was also checked when first looking to launch his effort.

I also thought there was a lot to like about staying-on efforts from Masseto and Dhabab, with a seventh furlong likely to bring more from both. The Organiser also deserves a mention – he raced freely at the head of affairs and left the impression he’s capable of getting involved in good races another day, possibly at 5f.

The Queen Mary finish was dominated by a couple who raced close to the stand rail and Quick Suzy and Twilight Gleaming appear to have posted performances more in keeping with the usual standard. Quick Suzy had impressed with her speed prior to getting run down late in a 6f Group 3 in the mud at Naas and this sharper test drew the best two-year-old performance of the meeting from her. Her rating is a matter for the Irish Handicappers, but I have her pencilled in at 108 and think there could be more still to come.

The best time from Wednesday’s races came in the listed Windsor Castle, where Chipotle proved the stand rail wasn’t the be all and end all as he charged away on the opposite side of the track. He was undoubtedly aided to some extent by a fierce pace in the larger stand-side group, but his two-and-a-quarter-length winning margin was the widest of any of the juvenile races and his performance is rated a couple of pounds above the average Windsor Castle winner at 105. The time would have justified higher still.
It’s worth giving an honourable mention to Ruthin (88++), who did significantly more than ideal early as she crossed from her middle draw to lead the stand-side group and was run out of it only in the last 100 yds. The heavily backed newcomer Kaboo (94+) also ran a race full of promise having stayed down the middle from his central draw.

The Group 2 Norfolk Stakes theoretically caters for better horses than the Windsor Castle but on current ratings Perfect Power’s winning performance (104) looks short of what Chipotle achieved following a finish in which the first six were covered by less than a length. Saying that, the Norfolk has been rated a deeper race, with that sextet rated at a level that would have seen them finish second in the Windsor Castle.

Conditions had taken a dramatic turn by the time the Albany kicked day four off, and Sandrine took some 4.5 seconds longer to cover the course than her stablemate Berkshire Shadow had. She’s clearly a tough filly and emerges with a rating of 105, while Hello You shaped with lots of promise in second having forced a pace that led to slow finishing sectionals. Prettiest and Cachet shaped as though a seventh furlong will see them in a better light, and the free-going beaten favourite Flotus is well worth another chance such was the impression she’d made on her debut.

Finally, the Chesham once again went to Aidan O’Brien, who’d been waiting all week for a juvenile winner. The stable won this with smart performers Churchill, September and Battleground in recent years and Point Lonsdale showed an excellent attitude to get the better of Her Majesty’s Reach For The Moon in a driving finish, with the pair drawing clear in an excellent time. I’ve pencilled the race in around standard at 104 but it could well be that this gets upgraded in the weeks and months ahead.

Incidentally, as is the norm following Royal Ascot week the full file of two-year-old ratings has now been published ahead of the first nursery of the year. That race is scheduled for Haydock on July 3^rd, and they come fairly thick and fast after that. Best of luck to all involved.

[Perpetual]

Starman rockets home in Darley July Cup
13 Jul 21

This year’s 6f Group 1 Darley July Cup was an eagerly awaited renewal, with no fewer than five Group 1 winners in the 19-strong field that went to post, writes Stewart Copeland.

It should have been six, but sadly the leading 6f sprinter, Dream Of Dreams, was withdrawn with injury leading up to the race. Let’s hope we see him back on the racecourse at the earliest opportunity.

Despite his withdrawal, the field boasted great strength in depth and looked one of the strongest line-ups we have seen of late. The ratings were headed by 2020 winner (and recent King’s Stand scorer) Oxted on 119. However, it was the progressive three-year-old Dragon Symbol who went off favourite, with the lightly-raced four-year-old Starman next best in the market.

As it turned out those three fought out the finish, with Starman emerging best of the trio and proving himself a sprinter right out of the top drawer. Unraced as a juvenile and highly progressive last year, he resumed in 2021 with an authoritative success in the Group 2 Duke of York on the Knavesmire in May before connections bypassed the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot when the rain came, his sole disappointing run having come on soft going in the British Champions Sprint last season.

That decision was more than vindicated on Saturday. His performance in beating Dragon Symbol by a length and a quarter, with Oxted a short head back in third, is credited with a rating of 120, which is higher than the average winner of the July Cup (119) this century. Also, the ratings of the first five home in this edition are worthy of note. They equate to an average of 116 – the norm is 114 – which emphasises the point above regarding the depth of the race.

Starman’s performance is even more meritorious considering he had a far from trouble free passage from soon after halfway, and the way he stayed on strongly up the hill at the end of such a truly-run affair was most impressive. On this evidence, the best is yet to come.

As for the placed horses, Dragon Symbol reproduced his rating of 116 from the Commonwealth Cup and Oxted also ran to that same figure. In the latter’s case, his chance was somewhat compromised by hanging badly right in the last two furlongs, which arguably cost him second.

Pacesetter Art Power ran as well as ever in finishing fourth and is credited with a rating of 115. Closely following him home was another progressive three-year old Creative Force, who reproduced his pre-race rating of 114. Successful in the 7f Jersey Stakes, he left the impression this challenge was a minimum and it will be no surprise if he has more to offer granted a stiffer test.

All in all, this was an excellent renewal of the July Cup, not just in terms of the exciting Starman, but the overall quality of the race, too. The rest of the sprint season promises plenty on this evidence.

Lantern shines brightest in Falmouth

The Group 1 Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes on Friday saw the first top quality meeting of the generations amongst the European female milers and it was the three-year-olds who dominated, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.


The first three from the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot once again filled the same three places at Newmarket – despite very different ground – though in a slightly different order. Richard Hannon’s improving Snow Lantern (up from 112 to 115) stayed on to get the better of Mother Earth (up from 111 to 114) by half a length, with Royal Meeting winner Alcohol Free running a very creditable 113 in third after cutting out the running – she stays on her post-Ascot figure of 115.

This level drags up a couple of the beaten horses to new highs but I think it is justified. Primo Bacio (fifth) was impressive when winning her previous start at York and with a little more luck in running might have finished a bit closer last week. She’s been raised 5lb to 112 for her effort. Just Beautiful arrived unbeaten in four runs over 7f and is judged to have improved from 102 to 110 in finishing sixth.

A winning performance of 115 is well up to recent standards for the Falmouth. It’s the same level achieved by Roly Poly (2017), Alice Springs (2016) and Amazing Maria (2015), and only the exceptional Alpha Centauri’s 121 in 2018 has bettered that rating during the same period.

On the face of it, the top older fillies were put in their place but the jury is still out to some extent. Lockinge runner-up Lady Bowthorpe came home as well as anything from an impossible position and would have given the first three something to think about with more luck – she retains her rating of 117, gained when chasing home Palace Pier in the Lockinge, suggesting she might even have landed the spoils under different circumstances.

Indie Angel (114) and Queen Power (113) might have been inconvenienced by being drawn 4 and 5 respectively in a race which seemed to favour those drawn high, whilst the latter was also reported to be lame on her left fore post-race.

The other highlight over a mile at the meeting was the arrival of Baaeed in the top echelon. He had looked a horse of enormous potential when winning his first two starts and he very much confirmed that view with a smooth success in the Edmondson Hall Solicitors Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed), beating a couple of rivals who represented some of the best three-year-old mile form of the year to date.

Runner-up Maximal had finished five lengths behind Poetic Flare when fourth in the St James’s Palace at Royal Ascot, suggesting that in beating the Stoute-trained colt four lengths here, Baaeed would have finished runner-up at worst in that contest, whilst third-placed One Ruler was beaten around half a length further here than he was in the 2000 Guineas in May. He is an exciting prospect and a new rating of 119 (with hopefully more improvement to come) suggests he will be more than capable of making his mark in Group 1 company as the season progresses.

[Perpetual]

Mishriff sparkles in Juddmonte International romp
24 Aug 21

A scintillating performance from Mishriff in winning the Juddmonte International by six lengths saw him join his King George conqueror Adayar at the head of the BHA flat ratings with a mark of 127, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

With Love (third) running below her best at 111 and the gamble to raise Sussex Stakes winner Alcohol Free (sixth at 107) up in trip failing to pay off, holes could be picked in the form of those behind the Gosden-trained colt. However, Mohaafeth (fourth) running to his pre-race rating of 112 gives the form solidity, suggesting his stable companion Alenquer has improved to 115 (from 110) in finishing second.

In terms of historical comparisons with other recent winners of the race, Mishriff’s performance reads well – it is considered on a par with Roaring Lion’s success in 2018 and inferior only to the impressive trio of Ghaiyyath (130 in 2020), Frankel (140 in 2012) and Sea The Stars (129 in 2009).

In light of the York result, 12f handicapper Mark Olley and I did discuss the possibility of revisiting the King George form and the mark of Adayar. Given the different trip at York and the fact that whilst Mishriff had given the form a boost, Love hadn’t, we decided we were comfortable with having Mishriff and Adayar on the same rating for the time being and opted not to move the level of the King George.

Oaks hat-trick for dominant Snowfall

The Group 1 Darley Yorkshire Oaks looked a match between Snowfall and Wonderful Tonight both on pre-race ratings and in the betting, writes Mark Olley.

Snowfall had run away with both the English and Irish Oaks, winning by a combined margin of 24.5 lengths, and while she is clearly a cut above the three-year-old fillies this promised to be a real test against the high-class four-year-old Wonderful Tonight.

Unfortunately, the expected clash didn’t really materialise as Wonderful Tonight found the ground too quick and didn’t show her true form. David Menuisier’s filly clearly relishes soft ground and I’m sure she will bounce back when encountering her favoured conditions.

Her underperformance left the race at Snowfall’s mercy and she didn’t disappoint, travelling supremely well and coming clear under a hands-and-heels ride, value for at least a six-seven length win. Her official rating, published in Ireland, remains unchanged on 120 and I can’t wait to see her properly tested to see what she is truly capable of.

Albaflora stayed on into a respectful second. This was her best run since landing the Listed Buckhounds Stakes at Ascot back in May and her rating moves back up to 110 (+2).

Winter powers to Nunthorpe success

The Group 1 Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes saw a dazzling display of speed from Winter Power, writes Chris Nash.

The Tim Easterby-trained filly was able to sit closest to the trailblazing US raider Golden Pal. She went past him around two furlongs out, had a gap on the field at the furlong marker and was able to see it home from there, finishing one-and-a-quarter lengths clear of Emaraaty Ana, with a further half-length back to Dragon Symbol in third. The favourite and highest rated pre-race, Suesa, finished a further three-quarters of a length away in fourth
The last ten winners of the Nunthorpe range from 116 (Ortensia in 2012 and Alpha Delphini in 2018) to 126 (Battaash in 2019) and race standards suggest a figure in the range of 115-118 for Winter Power. I’ve rated her 117 which represents further improvement for a filly who started in nurseries off just 76 last year and has won seven of her eleven races since. Her last three wins have been over this course and distance and she looks like a filly that will be best suited by sharp tests at the minimum trip.

This assessment of the race has Emaraaty Ana running to a figure of 115, which is also a career best for him – he arrived here rated 107 but had been as high as 112 as a two-year-old. Dragon Symbol managed to reverse form with Suesa from Goodwood where they had finished first and second in the Group 2 King George Stakes. Suesa won that race by three lengths and recorded a figure of 119 in that impressive display. She has only run to a figure of 108+ this time but had a fair bit to do at halfway having been dropped out and made good late gains. I’d be inclined to forgive her this lesser effort and give her another chance to confirm the good impression that she made at Goodwood.

Sonnyboyliston fights his way to Ebor glory

Saturday’s valuable Sky Bet Ebor Handicap attracted its usual high-quality field of stayers, and the form is sure to be informative with regards to other big handicaps and Group races in the months ahead, writes Adam Barnes.

As it turned out it was actually a Group race that proved to be key to this year’s Ebor, with the Group 3 John Smith’s Silver Cup run over the same course and distance last month producing five of the first seven runners home.

Johnny Murtagh’s Irish raider Sonnyboyliston was the one to emerge on top, seemingly better suited to the bigger field and stronger pace than he had encountered here last time. He has been assessed as running to a figure of 113 (+5), and now apparently has targets such as the Irish St Leger and Melbourne Cup on his agenda. Progressive runner-up Quickthorn (up 4 lb to 107) ran a cracker in defeat, and he also looks likely to make his mark in Group contests in the future.

While the Ebor might have been considered the big one at York on Saturday, I have to admit that I’m personally more of a Melrose man. A massive field of unexposed, up-and-coming three-year-olds, many only just now getting the opportunity to express themselves over a longer distance, really gets the juices flowing, and this year’s renewal proved to be a great spectacle.

Despite the busy finish between the first five home, the distances back to sixth and seventh in this deep field suggests those first five are all a good bit ahead of their marks, and as such I’ve taken a positive view of the form. The Andrew Balding-trained winner Valley Forge goes up 7 lb to 90, and the notably smooth way he moved through this contest suggests there could be a good bit more to come. Hopefully we see him back here in the big one next year – this win gains him automatic entry into the 2022 Ebor.

You don’t necessarily need big fields to produce exciting races, as evidenced by Friday’s four-runner Group 2 Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup, which witnessed a sustained, pulsating battle between Stradivarius and Spanish Mission.

After his fourth-placed finish in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot it’s fair to say that Stradivarius arrived at York with a slight point to prove, and in showing a fine attitude to narrowly reverse Ascot form with Spanish Mission he proved that he retains the great majority of his plentiful ability. While it was a fantastic race to watch, it didn’t really tell us anything new in terms of form, and as such the pre-race ratings of both Stradivarius (121) and Spanish Mission (117) remain unchanged.

Lusail takes top juvenile honours on the Knavesmire
A lot can happen in a week. There were four pattern races in Britain alone in the juvenile division and further high-class contests in France and Ireland. Here’s my round-up, writes Graeme Smith.

By my reckoning, the best juvenile performance on the Knavesmire came from Lusail in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes. His July Stakes success had been endorsed by Asymmetic in the Richmond (he also ran third in the Group 1 Prix Morny on Sunday this week) and then Ebro River in the Group 1 Phoenix, and Richard Hannon’s colt defied a 3lb-penalty at York in clear-cut fashion.

The Coventry winner Berkshire Shadow clearly didn’t give his running, with the drop in trip almost certainly against him, while the likes of Gis A Sub and Twilight Jet didn’t quite have the form pre-race to predict their second and third place finishes. It’s still relatively early days in their careers, however, and this is where historical standards come in – a useful tool when proven form is in scarce supply.

Standards suggested a figure of 114/115 for Lusail but given minor doubts about the placed horses and the fact the time only pointed to around 107, I reined back slightly to a figure of 113. Nevertheless, that rating still places Lusail in the upper echelons of the division so far.

Incidentally, I still have Atomic Force ahead of him among the sprinters. The excellent run of Hellomydarlin (up 4 lb to 102) under top weight in the nursery at York – along with Who Knows’ Group 3 success at Deauville – made a strong case for raising my initial view of the Robert Papin from Chantilly last month. Atomic Force now figures on 114.

Sandrine had looked the best of the two-year-old fillies in Britain prior to the Sky Bet Lowther, and she emerged as the equal of Zain Claudette under a 3-lb penalty despite having to give best to that rival. Zain Claudette is on an upward trajectory and undoubtedly stepped forward again from her Princess Margaret success. She’s now rated 108 – just an average winner of the Lowther at this stage – but that’s still higher than the 106 Fairyland was rated after winning this in 2018 before she went on to add the Cheveley Park. Incidentally, the average winning performance in the Cheveley Park in the last 5 years is 114.

Sandrine’s Duchess of Cambridge success has taken a few knocks and I’ve dropped her rating 1 lb to 108. That figure had leaned on historical standards at the time and it’s always important to go back and adjust these races as subsequent evidence emerges.

Royal Patronage put some well-touted rivals in the shade in the Tattersalls Acomb Stakes on the first day of the meeting. Mark Johnston’s son of Wootton Bassett had improved significantly under a positive ride at Epsom the time before and – more streetwise than the opposition – he repeated the dose to win by upwards of two and a quarter-lengths in a time that suggests a rating of 108 could prove on the low side in time. He looks just the sort to head for the Champagne or Royal Lodge next.
Saying that, the best 7f juvenile performance in Britain on my figures came away from York and from a horse who could well be headline news in future in the shape of Reach For The Moon. He’ll be bidding to provide classic success for Her Majesty The Queen in her Platinum Jubilee year in 2022 and things are going rather well at this stage.

There had been several strong pointers from his four-length success at Newbury last month, not least when Harrow (up 11 lb to 95) won a very competitive nursery at York, and he blew the Betway Solario Stakes field away by upwards of four lengths without Dettori having to get overly serious. Again, it’s hard to be dogmatic about the level given the lightly raced profiles of those involved, while the lack of an end-to-end gallop makes time analysis more difficult, but standards suggest his new figure of 114 is by no means a leap of faith.

There is still the small matter of Point Lonsdale for Reach For The Moon to worry about, however. Point Lonsdale had got the better of Reach For The Moon in the Chesham (pair clear) and took his record to four wins from as many starts when beating Maritime Wings more decisively than in the Tyros when winning the Futurity at the Curragh on Saturday. His rating is a matter for the Irish handicapper, but I still have him half a length ahead of Reach For The Moon around 115.

Incidentally, the Debutante, also run at the Curragh on Saturday, is usually an excellent pointer to the fillies’ Group 1 races and Agartha’s time stands up against what Point Lonsdale achieved. Again, the Irish handicapper will decide on her rating, but my current thinking would have her top of the fillies’ division as things stand.

[Perpetual]

Hurricane blows rivals away in St Leger
14 Sep 21

This year’s Cazoo St Leger saw the right horses come to the fore, and it looks likely to prove a good renewal of the world’s oldest Classic, writes Adam Barnes.

When the best horse on ratings clearly beats the second-best horse on ratings, who himself comes clear of the remainder, it’s fair to say that a handicapper’s task becomes a little clearer. That’s pretty much how things played out in Doncaster’s showpiece event on Saturday, and so overall there wasn’t too much head scratching required when it came to assessing the race.

Charlie Appleby’s Hurricane Lane looked a standout St Leger candidate on account of his victories in the Irish Derby and the Grand Prix de Paris, allied to his always seeming likely to stay this longer distance (his dam was a two-mile winner), and so it proved. In a race run at a fair enough pace, Hurricane Lane made ground stylishly from midfield and then readily quickened clear from old rival Mojo Star, with William Buick’s mount ultimately recording a comfortable two-and-three-quarter lengths victory.

Hurricane Lane is now rated 121 (up from 120), a figure largely supported by historical race standards and the time of the race. This makes him the highest-rated St Leger winner in the past decade – achieving the same rating as Masked Marvel in 2011 and Conduit in 2008 – and the feeling is that his current rating needn’t prove his limit. If he can get over Saturday’s exertions quickly enough then, along with stablemate Adayar, he looks a legitimate candidate for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in a few weeks’ time.

Mojo Star was the only one to really push Hurricane Lane, running a fine race in filling the same position as he did at Epsom in June – the result here another boost to the form of the Derby – and his rating rises 2lb to 116. He looks a nice prospect for next season.

There were few excuses for the remainder of the field, though I thought Ralph Beckett’s Scope may well have been a bit closer but for not getting a totally clear run as the race was developing, finishing off well after ending up with a lot to do. He doesn’t do anything too quickly and remains rated 109, but could yet progress further as a stayer.

Park Stakes Glory for Journey

The Group 2 Cazoo Park Stakes was won in nice style by the likeable and reliable Glorious Journey. He’s now a winner of a Group or Listed race in each of the five seasons he has raced, winning seven such races in all on six different racecourses, and in three different counties, writes Ryan Skelton.

Glorious Journey was never far off the pace early on, sitting just a couple of lengths off the leader Danyah (112). Having moved through nicely approaching the two furlong marker, Glorious Journey pretty much had the race sewn up from there, for all he did drift slightly right-handed. That caused a little bit of a mess in behind as Danyah became unbalanced, although the latter had probably run his race by then and was essentially disappointing on the back of his smart effort in winning the International Handicap at Ascot last time out.

Runner-up D’Bai (a stablemate of the winner) also travelled pretty well and put his last disappointing run behind him, coming from the rear of the field to make some good headway late on. D’Bai looks to have run up to his pre-race rating of 109, meaning Glorious Journey is back near his peak of last year on 112.

Both the winner and runner up are likely to go on their travels again soon, with the Dubai Carnival (which starts in a few months’ time) a likely target. I would like to think that they will both be as competitive as ever over there but hopefully we will get to see them again before they jet off.

In third was three-year-old Laneqash (112) who was having only the fifth start of his career, and only his second this season. He could be considered a little unlucky having been tightened up on the rail at a crucial stage approaching the furlong marker, but for which he may have finished a little closer. He had D’Bai well behind him when second in the Hungerford at Newbury on his reappearance and is worth another chance to build on that promise, especially as it’s possible that he’s better suited to a quicker surface than he encountered here (good to soft, soft in places).

Thrilling finish to Flying Childers

The feature 5f race at the St. Leger festival was the Group 2 Wainwright Flying Childers Stakes for juveniles, writes Chris Nash.

The race produced a cracking finish with the winner, Caturra, managing to come from last two furlongs out to collar the favourite, Armor, in the shadows of the post and win by a neck. There was a further neck back to Corazon in third and less than four lengths separated the first nine home.

The last ten winners of the race ran to figures ranging from 106 to 114 but, for all it was a decent finish to watch, the bunched nature of the field at the line generally places question marks over the strength of the form and strongly suggests that this was unlikely to have been a vintage renewal.

Applying historical race standards to the results suggests a figure between 106 and 108 for Caturra and confirms that this winning performance is towards the lower end of the ten-year spectrum. I went with 108, which rates a career best for him. He has a nicely progressive profile having largely stepped forward for each of his seven runs so far, so there are reasons to believe that there may be a bit more to come from him next year – given he has already won over 6f, he could develop into a Commonwealth Cup contender at Royal Ascot.

Armor arrived here rated 109 having won a Group 3 by three lengths at Goodwood in July and he largely backed up that performance when fourth in the Group 1 Prix Morny in France last month. He has only run to 107 at Doncaster but I’m happy to leave him rated 109 at this stage and give him another chance to prove he is worth that figure. Corazon registered a figure of 103 which equates to a career best for her.

[G-G]

Apologies as probably a very stupid question, but would I be correct in thinking that if a horse falls then his handicap mark wouldn't be changed, or would it?

[Desert Orchid]

Apologies as probably a very stupid question, but would I be correct in thinking that if a horse falls then his handicap mark wouldn't be changed, or would it?

Depends on where it falls. I think nowadays if it's two out or earlier it doesn't count (might be three out), if it's after that it can count at the discretion of the handicapper.

[barjon]

Yes, it’s one of the worst rub of salt in the wounds for the horse to be put up when it’s just thrown away a fat purse.

[G-G]

Depends on where it falls. I think nowadays if it's two out or earlier it doesn't count (might be three out), if it's after that it can count at the discretion of the handicapper.

Second last. Absolutely tanking, Would have won without shadow of a doubt.

[Desert Orchid]

There was a Skelton horse fell a week or two back, two or three out.

The trainer said something after the race about the handicapper not being able to put the horse up because of when it fell.

[G-G]

Was my BBB just wondering 'cos of next day they're looking at to run. there are 2 races he could go for: if they don't put him up/down in one, he'll have b top weight b again, if they go for the other, would have lower weight than ever had, and if dropped at all, would be lbs and lbs in.

[barjon]

In jumps racing there will of course be occasions when a horse fails to complete a race and a percentage of these incidents will occur in the later stages of the contest. As Handicappers, we are duty bound to assess where we think these non-completers would have finished in relationship to those horses that did complete the race.

While it may seem punitive to not only fail to complete but to also receive a weight rise, it would go against any handicapping principle to simply ignore the likely outcome. Of course there are several occasions where these decisions result in a horse dropping in the weights, for example a faller at the last may have finished only fifth and below form, therefore allowing a reduction in the rating.

All handicappers use the same guideline. No horse can have its mark increased for anything that happens before the second last obstacle. Once a horse gets to that obstacle it comes down to the handicapper’s judgement whether a rise is appropriate. While this isn’t an ideal solution, a line has to be drawn somewhere to suggest a cut-off point when a race is too far from the finish to suggest a definitive estimate

[ep1987]

Speaking of handicapping does anyone have a link or is able to explain what factors go into a horse's mark being lowered?

[barjon]

If our performance figure indicates that a horse has achieved less than its current handicap mark, we consider whether to drop that rating.

When a horse performs below its rating, that does not automatically mean it is badly handicapped. There are many other factors at play – such as ground conditions, draw, race distance, the pace of the race, what the other horses did, luck in running, etc. Few horses run to exactly the same level every time.

We do not normally drop a horse’s handicap mark for a single disappointing run, especially if it ran well on its previous start.

Every time a horse runs we review its previous races to ensure our assessment of them remains appropriate. Where evidence emerges that suggests our assessment is too high or too low, we will revise those performance figures. As a result, some horses from that race may have their handicap mark changed without even running.

Around two thirds of all our collateral changes to handicap marks are downwards and only one third are increases (looking at the most recent data at the time of publishing, in July 2018, 65% of all collateral changes resulted in a drop of the horse’s rating).

[Tanlic]

I thought I would have a look at a handicap at random. I came across one at Ascot today and went straight to the top weight.

The horse in question is Red Risk trained by Paul Nichols. Off 135 he was beaten 5 1/2 lengths carrying 11.12lbs by a horse called Fidux who lost his next 4 out of 5 winning a nothing race at Worcester

Red Risk's claim to fame is he won a shockingly bad race at Ludlow off 135 and was put up 9 lbs and hasn't looked remotely like winning since.

He was even beaten by a 134 rated horse at lowly Market Rasen and now finds himself carrying top weight at Ascot

In a year and eight months he has been dropped 2lb and as far as I can see the only reason he hasn't dropped about 5lbs is he is trained by PN.

No doubt PN could improve him but in all that time there is no real evidence of that.

It's fine and well to say he ran to his mark last time but the fact is he never won has no chance of running up a sequence becase the minute you win a donkey race in the UK the handicapper goes nuts.

Had he been put up 4lbs instead of 9 lbs he may have had a chance to win again but up 9lbs even the brilliant PN couldn't win in 4 tries in 20 months

[Tanlic]

Around two thirds of all our collateral changes to handicap marks are downwards and only one third are increases (looking at the most recent data at the time of publishing, in July 2018, 65% of all collateral changes resulted in a drop of the horse’s rating).

Of all the horses that go national hunt racing what percentage actually win a race?