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Thread: The thoughts of the handicappers.

  1. #61
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    Exactly, Gareth.

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    Al Ferof's Ascot experience will be key in the Arkle.

    The emphasis returns to jumping in this week's blog and it was good quality racing at that. Somersby finally enjoyed his day in the sun at Ascot on Saturday and John de Moraville gives his thoughts on what Henrietta Knight's stable star actually proved in doing so. Other valuable contests are also covered, namely the mares' Grade 2 at the Berkshire venue and Haydock's Peter Marsh Chase.

    SOMERSBY SHINES

    With no Master Minded to spoil the party, Somersby gained the Grade 1 triumph he so richly deserved in Saturday's Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot, writes John de Moraville.

    Foiled heart-breakingly by a whisker by the sidelined ex-champion in the same race a year ago, Somersby - top-rated on official figures this time - ran to his mark of 166 to propel trainer Henrietta Knight back into the big time.

    Finian's Rainbow, whose only previous chase defeat came in last season's Arkle, was an honourable second and posted a career-best 164 while third-placed Al Ferof (160) advertised his claims for this year's 2m novice title.

    Somersby's Cheltenham target is expected to be the Ryanair Chase, which looks the right call as the extended trip will suit and he was found wanting in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last spring when fifth behind Sizing Europe (177), who is favourite to complete a famous double in March.

    Saturday's defeat leaves Finian's Rainbow, who looked sure to win jumping the second-last, with a bit to find in the Champion Chase but the experience gained by the novice Al Ferof should be a significant asset against the likes of Sprinter Sacre (161) and Peddlers Cross (also 160) in what promises to be a vintage Arkle.

    Cheltenham's uphill finish will help him as well, as was the case when stamina won him the day in last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

    ACCORDING TO STEPHEN

    It's been a while since I had to do any national hunt handicapping, writes Stephen Hindle, but I've been drafted in as Phil Smith has swanned off on holiday!

    One good thing about that happening at this time of year is the chance to assess some better races and Saturday was no exception with the latest renewal of the Grade 2Peter Marsh Handicap Chase at Haydock.

    It looked competitive beforehand, with four last-time-out winners in the line-up and the majority of the eleven-strong field going into the race in the good form.

    In the end the race boiled down to three, namely recent winners According To Pete and Consigliere and last-time-out faller Pearlysteps. According To Pete was 8lb out of the handicap when winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby over Christmas and he proved that was no fluke in fine style here, looking value for slightly more than the three-and-a-half lengths he prevailed by from Pearlysteps.

    Considering the first three were twenty-three lengths clear of the fourth in a competitive-looking race I felt they all deserved a rise.

    Consigliere has been as high as 148 in the past, a mark he achieved when finishing third in the 2010 Grand Annual but the winner of that race, Pigeon Island, has failed to progress and I felt more comfortable putting Consigliere up by 2lb to 147.

    That meant a 3lb rise for Pearlysteps, who was three-quarters of a length in front of Consigliere, to 143. According To Pete, who clearly relishes testingground, is now up to a career-high mark of 149 (raised 7lb).

    None of the others ran to form, though Mon Mome can be forgiven a seemingly well below-par effort as he wasn't that far behind when his rider called it a day. The 2009 Grand National winner presumably has that event on his agenda again this year.

    DAVIS CUP

    There was very little to choose between the majority of the runners in the Warfield Mares' Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday and, partly due to the steady pace, there was little to choose between them at the finish either, writes Martin Greenwood.

    On my adjusted ratings, there was only a couple of pounds between Irish challenger Our Girl Salley (who gave 5lb to the rest of the field), Violin Davis,Kentford Grey Lady and Cloudy Spirit - the last-named trio renewing rivalries having all run in a Kempton handicap the time before. On that occasion, Kentford Grey Lady ran out a convincing winner receiving upwards of 10lb from the other two.

    It was always going to be much harder for the grey racing off level weights at Ascot, though she was still sent off the preferred mare in the market. In the event, however, she couldn't quite peg back Violin Davis after the race turned into something of a sprint and she went down narrowly by half a length. The slightly eased down Our Girl Salley was just over two lengths back in third, with the rest of the field not much further behind.

    There was little shuffling of the ratings needed afterwards - the winner is now 135 (matching the four-year standards forthe contest) from 133, the runner-up 134 from 133 and Our Girl Salley remaining on 139 for now. Incidentally, Love of Tara, who finished last, appeared to run 4lb above her pre-race rating of 122 but I have ignored the run and assumed she was flattered, a decision that helps prove the BHA handicappers don't always follow the robotic stance we are often accused of!

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  3. #63
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    Argento victory a high point for Midnight Chase.


    Last weekend saw the last of Cheltenham's pre-festival fixtures in the shape of trials day. It was chiefly Midnight Chase and Big Buck's who hogged the majority of the limelight but they weren't the only noteworthy performers so far as the festival goes and our NH team do their best to cover all angles.

    There was big-race action at Doncaster too and we could be hearing more of the first two from the Sky Bet Chase in the run up to the Grand National.

    MIDNIGHT HOUR

    Some incredibly competitive and interesting chases fell under my workload on Saturday, with no fewer than three of them taking place at Cheltenham, writes Stephen Hindle.

    The best performance, though not by as much as you may think, came courtesy of Midnight Chase, who continued his love affair with the course by taking the Grade 2 Argento Chase, gamely holding off Tidal Bay by two and three-quarter lengths.

    It was Midnight Chase's fifth win at the trackfrom just eight starts and the only time he's finished out of the first three there was when a creditable fifth in last year's Gold Cup.

    He came into this contest on the back of a third in the Rowland Meyrick, which has already been advertised by the follow-up success of According To Pete. That said, this effort not only represented a step up on that form, but Midnight Chase appears to have at least matched anything he's done in the past.

    He went in to the race on a mark of 158 and given he was conceding 6lb to Tidal Bay, who has shown himself capable of form in the mid-160s in the past, I could have underestimated this effort even by putting Midnight Chase back up to his best rating of 163. The reason I didn't go higher was due to the proximity of Knockara Beau in third, who will be going up to 147 from 140. He has been slightly higher in the past but the fact he's been beaten twice this season off 143 tempered my view of this form slightly, while the race was also watered down somewhat by the absence of Grands Crus and the no show from Captain Chris, who jumped badly right and was pulled up at an early stage.

    A couple of hotly contested handicap chases preceded the Argento.

    Bless The Wings was a two-and-a-half length winner of the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase, which traditionally represents strong form. This year's renewal saw plenty of casualties, with no fewer than six of the sixteen runners either falling or unseating. I'm of the opinion the race is still likely to prove well worth following, however, and I raised the winner, Bless The Wings, by 8lb to 138, crediting him with 3lb extra for idling.

    Just over half an hour later, last year's Timeform winner, The Giant Bolster, obliterated his rivals in the Grade 3 Murphy Group Handicap Chase,powering home by 17 lengths from Poquelin.

    Nothing other than a hefty hike could be allotted to The Giant Bolster, who I raised 15lb to 160. Poquelin also ran with plenty of credit in justifying his mark of 168, which is unchanged.

    In addition to Cheltenham, another good-quality handicap chase could be found in Britain on Saturday. Doncaster hosted the Sky Bet Chase, which actually dwarfed the prize-money in the similar events seen at Cheltenham, with Calgary Bay picking up the best part of £43,000 for his two-and-a-half length defeat of Shakalakaboomboom.

    Calgary Bay doesn't go to Doncaster that often but he has arguably turned in his best two performances there. His win off 142 by seven lengths in December 2009 represented a career best at the time and there is little doubting this latest success bettered anything he's done in the past. He goes up from 151 to 159.

    Shakalakaboomboom also ran really well in second and goes up 5lb to 149, which loosely fits in with the new mark of Knockara Beau, who finished second to him at Cheltenahm in December.

    The next three home in the Sky Bet, Fruity O'Rooney, Galaxy Rock and Qianshan Leader, also ran with credit. Saddle problems were a real cause for concern for Fruity O'Rooney at the last. It slipped so far that rider Jamie Moore worked wonders to maintain the partnership to the finish having lost his irons. Galaxy Rock and Qianshan Leader didn't jump well and I felt all three of those horses should be kept on the same mark.

    JUVENILE JOUSTING

    He may have lost the race in the stewards' room but Pearl Swan has gone to the top of the juvenile ratings thus far by passing the post first in Saturday's JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial Finesse Hurdle, writes Dave Dickinson. Ignoring the rights and wrongs of any stewarding decision Pearl Swan and Grumeti appeared very closely matched on Saturday's terms (Pearl Swan was giving his rival 3lb) and with Finale winner Hollow Tree appearing to run another fine race in third, he is used as the benchmark giving marks of 146 to Pearl Swan and 143 to Grumeti.

    Such a race ought to make the Triumph picture much clearer but it doesn't. This year's juvenile form was tested in all-age handicap company in Cheltenham's closer on Saturday. Hinterland travelled well but merely plugged on when push came to shove and his 141 mark remains unchanged. He remains in the Triumph picture, and it is worth remembering that Ranjaan has alreadyrun to 141, when winning an all-age handicap at Taunton. So it looks a competitive race at this stage among the British juveniles and the form is taking some weighing up in Ireland too.

    It was a tragedy when Sam Bass was lost over Christmas but Ut De Sivola looked the part, particularly when Burrenbridge Lodge and One Cool Shabra (third and fourth to him at Punchestown) defied the odds to fight out another controversial finish at Gowran in the week, beating three better-backed and less-exposed rivals. However, that form took a knock later in the week when Punchestown second Hisaabaat failed to cope with Darroun, who along with his debut conqueror Shadow Catcher, must also be in the mix.

    I have no less than15 juveniles rated between 138 and the top of 146. Add to this the fact that the last five Triumph winners ran to marks between 148 and 159 in victory, and that the latest two were not seen on these shores before the February of their winning year, and the race looks even more of a minefield than usual.

    BUCK'S PARTY

    Although most people know me as the handicapper for the two-year-olds, I have a fairly secret past, writes Matthew Tester. For six or seven years I used to help out the jumping team in the winter.

    Perhaps my most versatile moment came some years ago. I had to come up with the ratings for a two-year-old seller at Wolverhampton on the same day that I was finalising the weights for the Scottish Grand National. Thanks entirely to the ratings I had inherited from Phil Smith, the race finished in a three way photo. Phil rang me on the way home to tell me to retire from handicapping chasers because I was never going to top that.

    But I was back in the fray for a weekend to fill the gap between one of the jumping team going on holiday and another one returning. So this weekend I had to do a 6f seller from Lingfield and the Cheltenham win of Big Buck's. He certainly is the only 174-rated horse that I will deal with this year! It was a fascinating challenge looking after the staying hurdlers and I had Big Buck's running to 171 in beating Dynaste by seven lengths conceding 4lb, with the latter raised 2lb to 160.

    My wife Amelia, a member at Cheltenham since she was in her pram, thinks that Flat racing is what you do while you are waiting to go hurdling. She would love me to do jumpers and it was a great honour. But it was so nervewracking that I am delighted to be able to pass them back to the specialists. Bring on the Brocklesby.

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    Feeling the chill.

    THERE hasn't been an awful lot of racing in the last seven days, with the loss of the big weekend jumps cards proving a real disappointment, but while we're a bit light on flagship horses in this week'sblog our team have picked out several noteworthy performances that might have escaped the attentions of many.

    ON THE UP

    Despite the limited racing programme last week a couple of middle distance novice hurdlers created enough of an impression to suggest that they could progress on to better things as the season continues, writes Chris Nash.

    At Ffos Las on Sunday Benheir sluiced up on his hurdles debut. He had won the last of his three bumper runs back in November and had subsequently changed hands.

    Although the opposition here was limited he created a good impression on his debut for Rebecca Curtis when coasting home by 22 lengths. He doesn't qualify for an official rating just yet but the runner-up King's Sunset does and he will enter the handicap ranks with a rating of 105. This would suggest that Benheir turned in a performance worthy of a rating of at least 127 and by any reckoning that represents a decent debut. It will be interesting to see if this initial promise is confirmed next time out.

    The second horse worth a mention is Tap Night, who won a 2m4f novice hurdle at Newcastle on Wednesday by an easy 12 lengths. He had previously won a novice handicap race from a mark of 110 and lined up here with an official rating of 125. His stiffest competition looked likely to come from An Capall Mor (pre-race 115), to whom Tap Night had to concede 7lb, but he ran a poor race in the testing conditions.

    Although this casts a bit of a shadow over the form, the eventual runner-up Falcun arrived with some consistent form and a pre-race rating of 110. In giving him 7lb and a 12-length beating it is reasonable to assume that Tap Night ran to a figure of 129+ and factoring in the ease of the victory his revised rating will be 132. This was only his fifth hurdles run and his form has a progressive look to it which, in conjunction with a rating of 132, suggests that he could more than hold his own upped in class.

    STORM FORCE

    The most progressive horse I dealt with in a curtailed week was undoubtedly the Jonjo O'Neill-trained Storm Survivor, writes Graeme Smith. The six-year-old son of Milan has proved a revelation since switched to handicaps and raised in trip and despite being turned over at odds on at Fakenham earlier in January, he resumed winning ways in decisive fashion in a conditional jockeys' event at Plumpton.

    Again partnered by Maurice Linehan, Storm Survivor relished the combination of a further step up to 3m1f and the application of a visor, going much further on the bridle than any of his rivals and, after taking a while to get going once shaken up at the second last, powering away from the final flight to account for The Red Laird by an ever-increasing seven lengths.

    The runner-up had been off the track since February last year but his profile is generally progressive and I raised his mark 4lb to 105 following this defeat of several others with recent handicap form to their names. The knock-on from that was a 14lb rise for Storm Survivor to 124, having decided he was value for an extra five lengths over the bare winning margin.

    SPEED DEMONS

    Even though the English cricket team aren't enjoying much success in the Middle East, to say the least, the same can't be said of the British raiders at Meydan this winter, with both sprints last Friday being won by horses trained from these shores, writes Stewart Copeland.

    The Group 3 6f Al Shindagha Sprint run on the Tapeta surface was won by the admirable Hitchens, putting up his best performance since an excellent third to Dream Ahead in last summer's Group 1 Darley July Cup at Newmarket.

    Always well positioned just behind the pace, he hit the front inside the last and dug deep to hold off the rallying Krypton Factor, narrowly prevailing by a short-head.

    Rated 113 in the World Rankings at the end of 2011, Hitchens showed himself here to be as good as ever and remains on that mark. His next port of call looks likely to be the Group 3 6f Mahab Al Shimaal, run on March 10 as part of Super Saturday at this year's festival.

    The preceding turf sprint handicap over 5f produced an exciting finish, the first four home all trained in Britain, with Monsieur Joe prevailing by a neck from Inxile, with Bohemian Melody and Iver Bridge Lad filling the framebehind them.

    Formerly trained by Walter Swinburn, the Monsieur Joe was having only his second start for Robert Cowell and recorded his best performance since some excellent efforts at Meydan last winter.

    He landed this handicap off a mark of 100, and probably ran to a rating of 103, though a case could be made for it to be slightly higher.

    His stable companion Prohibit won a similar contest at Meydan this time last year, en route to being successful in last year's Group 1 King's Stand at Royal Ascot, and no doubt connections will be hoping there's better to come from Monsieur Joe as well.

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    Another depleted week due to the snow, but there was quality action both over the Jumps and on all-weather at the weekend, and both Dave Dickinson and Stewart Copeland give their take on it. Also, Greg Pearson highlights a case that shows lofty rises in the weights don’t always mean the end of a winning spree.

    STORM DAMAGE

    Stormy Weather swooped late to win Saturday’s John Smith’s Scottish County Hurdle to follow up a recent handicap success at Newcastle, writes Dave Dickinson.

    His record of 211 in 2m handicap hurdles over the last couple of months suggests that the mark he began his run on (113) was at the very least fair. But hang on a minute, isn’t this the same Stormy Weather who was over faced in small field conditions races before that?

    As handicappers, one of the regular chestnuts is ‘we would love to run in a conditions race but if he runs well we will ruin his/her mark’. We cannot give anyone a guarantee that we will never move a horse’s mark for a conditions race run but we are aware that it can be dangerous to take such form at face value.

    In the Fighting Fifth Stormy Weather finished fourth of the five runners, finishing ten lengths behind Celestial Halo, who himself had just won a handicap off 150. However, all that had happened was that the horses who should have finished ahead of him had done so and he had beaten the one rival he was entitled to. So I left hismark on 113. Brian Ellison and the connections had picked up about £5,500 for Stormy Weather’s fourth place.

    A distant sixth to Grandouet in the Stanjames.com International at Cheltenham saw him pick up the best part of another £2,000 in prize money and his mark again remained unchanged.

    So, he has had five runs since Fighting Fifth day and been in the money every time. Well done to the trainer and the owners for their enterprise. Whether Stormy Weather’s new mark of 126 (from Saturday’s race) will quite get them in the County Hurdle proper remains to be seen. If it doesn’t, maybe I will get a phone call telling me I have been too lenient!

    MOON RISING

    The feature race of Saturday’s three all-weather Flat meetings was the 6f Class 2 Get Your Bet On At bluesq.com Handicap at Lingfield, writes Stewart Copeland.

    The winner, Palace Moon, who got back on the comeback trail after a disappointing 2011 when a ready winner of a 7f minor event at Kempton on his previous start, bettered that form with an impressive success.

    Travelling well just off the pace, he quickened in good style to lead inside the last, coming home a length clear of Novellen Lad, with Five Star Junior a head further back in third.

    With the majority of his rivals coming into the race in good nick, the form has a very solid look to it.

    Successful here off 98, Palace Moon’s rating has been revised to 103, though when you consider he was as high as 109 in 2010, there’s every chance of better to come.

    This performance ranks second only to Oasis Dancer on the all-weather sprint scene this winter, and it’ll be an interesting clash if both turn up forthe listed Cleves Stakes over this course and distance in a fortnight.

    FOREST IN BLOOM

    Sometimes as a handicapper certain race results give you a great deal of pleasure and one of those was the win of Illustrious Forest at Wolverhampton last Monday, writes Greg Pearson.

    The John Mackie-trained gelding was raised 15lb from 50 to 65 after he panelled the opposition by an eight-length margin at the Midlands track in December, meaning that while racing in the same grade here (Class 6/51-65 handicap) he had gone from the bottom of the handicap (1lb out of the weights on first the occasion) to the top.

    I feel confident his connections would have been deeply aggrieved to have the horse’s rating increased by such a drastic amount after winning the paltry sum of £1704, but you would like to think they were buoyed by the subsequent success of runner-up Shirataki at Kempton two weeks later (he’d been raised 2lb from 54 to 56), whilst both McCool Bannanas and Honourable Knight also did their bit for theform.

    The final margin of this week’s victory was only three quarters of a length, but that doesn’t fully demonstrate the gelding’s superiority over his rivals. Always prominent, Illustrious Forest applied pressure from halfway and had opened up a sizeable advantage turning for home. From there he tended to wander like a drunken sailor and this made it very difficult for him to sustain momentum, thus flattering the second Royal Alcor who closed on him late.

    Illustrious Forest has now been raised a further 6lb from 65 to 71, with Royal Alcor up only 3lb from 61 to 64 – I believe the 3lb turnaround gives the runner-up a realistic chance of being able to avenge defeat should they meet again.

    The winner is only lightly raced for a 4yo and certainly has a progressive profile (over staying trips) so it would be misguided to think the fact he has now been forced up in grade means that he won’t remain ultra-competitive on the all-weather circuit in coming weeks.

    This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
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    National weights just out but four already well-in
    Head of handicapping Phil Smith blogs about the Grand National weights released last week...

    Last Tuesday on Valentine's Brook Day at the Savoy Hotel in London I revealed the John Smith's Grand National weights for the race at Aintree which will take place exactly two months later. Most of the trainers were reasonably happy with the weight allocated to their horses as many had done their own calculations based around Ballabriggs being top weight or nearly top weight.

    As it happened I chose Synchronised as top weight. I just felt that his overall profile as a Welsh National winner and a Grade 1 Lexus winner gave him the edge over Ballabriggs. Since we lowered the top weight to 11st 10lbs trainers have been much happier about running under top weight than in the past and both Donald McCain and Jonjo O'Neill spoke encouragingly about their chances.

    The only trainer who was in any way critical was Dessie Hughes who felt I had not been fair to Black Apalachi. He was second off 154 in 2010 and was agreed in the 2009-2010 Anglo-Irish Jumps Classifications on 159 which is what he would have run off if he had been fit enough in 2011. As he had been off for so long and the horse that beat him (Don't Push It) was not in the race I dropped him back to 154.

    In effect he is 5lbs worse with State Of Play for beating that horse in to third place by 20 lengths. It makes you wonder what Dessie felt would have been a fair differential for those two horses. Meet on the same terms? Give State of Play 1lb, 2lbs, 3lbs, 4lbs, more than he did in 2010? I have to be fair to all horses and if I had dropped Black Apalachi any further then I believe Evan Williams would have had cause for complaint. As it happened Dessie seemed unaware that I had dropped Black Apalachi at all!

    Dropping horses for long absences is NOT a given. We always look at their form before they were injured and if they were struggling then they often get a large drop (sometimes as much as 12lbs). However if they were running well and the form still looks solid then often they are not dropped at all. Our results with horses coming back after a long absenceare very encouraging. Perhaps Dessie thought that second in the 2010 Grand National wasn't good form.

    Inevitably with a two month early closing race horses entered in the race suddenly start to appear and a number ran over the last week some very encouragingly. First up was Burton Port. I had dropped him 6lbs (166 to 160) for his absence because the form of the 2010 Hennessy had not worked out. Diamond Harryhas disappointed and had dropped from 168 to 160. Denman has retired while the fourth and fifth The Tother One and Niche Market have both dropped a stone since running at Newbury.

    Owing to the compression at the top of the John Smith's Grand National weights he received a further 2lbs so he is on 158 in the race. This looked neat as an average winner goes up 8lbs, so if Burton Port could replicate his 2010 Hennessy second he could win the National. Clearly he has been expertly brought back to top form by the owner's racing manager Mick Meagher and his trainer Nicky Henderson. I assessed the Denman Chase through The Giant Bolster, a wide margin winner of a competitive handicap at Cheltenham on his previousrun and now on 160.

    Therefore I had What A Friend running to 161 (160 +7 lengths -6lbs) and he has been dropped to a rating of 165. It was an encouraging run by him after an absence but it is now 11 months since he was fourth in last year's Gold Cup and I have dropped him to 165 behind Burton Port who is restored to his post Hennessy 166 (160 +11 lengths ahead of The Giant Bolster -6lbs weight differential +1lb for the error as he stuttered into the last fence).

    Asa result Burton Port is now 8lbs well in for the John Smith's Grand National. In February 2010 I had him on 158 and his trainer told me that I had ruined the horse's future. Since then he has won a Reynoldstown, been second in an RSA, won a Mildmay, beensecond in a Hennessy and finished second in a Denman Chase. Not bad for a horse I had supposedly ruined.

    Long Run I have performing to 178. Burton Port's 166 +10lbs weight and I called the half a length as 2lbs as like his owner I believe Long Run was idling in front. There has been some total nonsense written that it was a disappointing run. For me it was an excellent trial for the Gold Cup. Last year Long Run improved 3lbs from 179 in the King George to 182 in the Gold Cup and I have no doubt he will do at least the same again this year between the Denman Chase and the Gold Cup so he is sure to run at least in the low 180's under his optimum conditions including going up the hill three times and over 2.5 furlongs further.

    The big question is can Kauto Star replicate his Kempton 183 in the King George at Christmas at Cheltenham in March? He will have to if he is to win the race. So far his performances in the Gold Cup have been 172, 174, 186, 0 and 169. He did it in 2009, it will be fascinating to see if he can do it in 2012.

    On Saturday at Ascot I thought Massini's Maguire ran an excellent trial for the John Smith's Grand National. He is now 6lbs well in for Aintree as like Burton Port I have restored him to a mark he has already been in the past (148 to 154). Just when it looked as if he was going to get caught he stayed on dourly, expertly ridden by Tom Scudamore who hardly ever gets a mention in the press but who I think is a top, top jockey. In the same race Cappa Bleu showed his 147 will make him competitive at Aintree and must also have pleased connections. His form this year is bomb proof.

    At Haydock, Giles Cross who is Mr Consistent won the Betfred Grand National Trial by a neck but it was a cosy neck as the jockey was pretty motionless and I called it 3lbs. He is now 6lbs well in at Aintree (138 to 144). Neptune Collonges was staying on all the time confirming what I thought in his previous run at Sandown that he will be well suited to 4.5 miles. He was moved from 159 to 162 but because I had compressed him at Aintree to 157 he is now 5lbs well in. Finally you couldn't rule out Le Beau Bai who stays on 140 and who looked as if he needed at least another mile at Haydock which is much more of a speed track nowadays despite the heavy ground.

    So four days after I released the weights for the 2012 John Smith's Grand National there are four horses that are now well in. Burton Port by 8lbs, Massini's Maguire by 6lbs, Giles Cross by 6lbs, and Neptune Collonges by 5lbs. In 1999 when I did my first National I used to panic when horses showed they were well in subsequent to my release of the weights. I am more relaxed nowadays as obviously they are not all going to win. However a dead heat would be nice.

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  7. #67
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    Good Find Colin.

    Does anyone know if they plan on aiming Burton Port at the national?
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Cheers Colin.

    Dessie Dessie Dessie...
    Last edited by Marble; 21st February 2012 at 10:45 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by granger View Post
    Good Find Colin.

    Does anyone know if they plan on aiming Burton Port at the national?
    Be surprised if they didn't, Granger, as his owner has long had a policy of buying horses with the GN specifically in mind..

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    Trials and tribulations

    Saturday proved a big day in the run-up to the Triumph Hurdle, with several of the leading contenders completing their preparations at Kempton and Fairyhouse, and there was a real shake-up in the betting in the aftermath.

    Kempton was also the scene of the fast-improving Hunt Ball's latest success, and boy did that open a can of worms!

    John de Moraville takes the opportunity to fire back at the criticism he received from the gelding's owner in Monday's Racing Post, while Matthew Tester's grievance centres on the Racing Post itself! Read on . . .

    IN THE MIX

    Oh what a lovely triumph by Baby Mix on Saturday as he leap-frogged back to the top of the juvenile tree (on my figures anyway) by way of his career-best 149 in winning the Grade 2 William Hill Adonis Hurdle, writes Dave Dickinson.

    This race saw first defeats over timber for Sadler's Risk (who nevertheless shaped well running to 142) and Dildar, knocking their JCB Triumph chances, though by no means to the extent that Ireland's leading hope had his aspirations dashed just five minutes earlier.

    I wrote a few weeks ago about the openness of this year's juvenile centrepiece, but that ten minutes on Saturday just about summed it up. Ante-post favourite Minsk made his hurdle debut at Fairyhouse and was given weight and a narrow beating by the admirable but not-top-class Burrenbridge Lodge, who would be rated 136 in Britain.

    He reportedly now misses the race and the more cynical amongst you would maybe think he was only favourite on the back of an impressive Flat win in the Irish Cesarewitch and the fact that he wasunbeaten over hurdles having never been tried over them!

    The return to form of Baby Mix will divide opinion I am sure. He made one serious mistake, but racing more prominently on this occasion he settled better than he had when flopping behind Pearl Swan at Cheltenham and gave me the impression that the helter-skelter of the Triumph will be right up his street.

    That said there is no denying that Sadler's Risk (who was in receipt of 3lb) was clawing back the advantage in the closing stages and Prestbury should suit him better too. How's that for sitting on the fence. Good job it's a hurdle race!

    STILL IN THE HUNT

    When jumping's end-of-season gongs are dished out in April, rookie trainer Kieran Burke should, at the very least, be mentioned in dispatches, writes John de Moraville.

    Burke, an ex-jockey who took over the licence at the Somerset stables of former boss Pat Rodford, has expertly steered the hugely progressive Hunt Ball through the ranks this term to win six of his seven chases.

    Having kicked off his winning spree at Folkestone in November off a basement mark of 69, Hunt Ball has glided to victory off 75, 85, 108, 117 and, most recently, and impressively, at Kempton on Saturday off 127.

    The seven-year-old could be named the winner on Saturday a long way from home, easing to victory over that doughty mare Cool Friend by ten lengths. That margin, in my view, could have been readily extended to fifteen, hence his latest weight rise of 15lb.

    Hunt Ball's new mark of 142 has not impressed his animated owner Anthony Knott, although his argument that it rules the horse out of his preferred Cheltenham target - the 0-140 Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase - is incorrect.

    Qualification for that race is judged on ratings published on February 21 - at which stage Hunt Ball was 127 - although he'll have to run off his new figure of 142. As such he'll carry 12st - 2lb above the 140 ceiling at 11st 12lb.

    If anything, Knott's assurances to Barry Geraghty on Saturday, that the gelding had two stone in hand at Kempton, make this 15lb rise look far from prohibitive for Hunt Ball in his eyes. He's also quoted as saying he regrets not entering Hunt Ball in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, believing he has around thirty lengths to find on the principals - another comment that suggests Knott feels a mark in the 150s would be more appropriate!

    BALLS UP

    One cliché used by racing journalists really annoys me, writes Matthew Tester.

    Sunday saw the Racing Post headline "Hunt Ball continues to defy handicapper" after the horse won again at Kempton. The Handicapper has tried to give Hunt Ball a fair chance of winning, so how can Hunt Ball "defy" him by doing just that?

    The reason the headline upsets me is that it suggests the Handicapper is trying to stop the horse from winningand that the horse has somehow thwarted him.

    The reality is that if a horse has won six handicaps in a row then our job is to try to give it a fair chance to win a seventh one. It is not helpful to imply as, in my opinion, the headline does that we were trying to end the winning run and were defied.

    Racing Post - please cut out this cliché.

    HANDICAP HINTS

    Market Rasen and Carlisle might not always be the first tracks to look to in search of Cheltenham contenders but a couple of handicap winners at those venues in the last week fully deserve to take their chance at the Festival, writes Chris Nash.

    At Market Rasen on Sunday Attaglance was the impressive winner of a 2m3f 0-135 handicap hurdle. Runningoff a mark of 130, and as such top weight, he skipped clear from two out to win by nine lengths.

    The pace of the race was fair and the time was respectable so there are reasons to think that this could be reliable form. I have decidedto give him full credit for the margin of victory and raised his rating 9lb to 139. He holds entries in the County Hurdle, the Martin Pipe Hurdle and the Coral Cup.

    At Carlisle on Monday it was the turn of Tenor Nivernais to advertise his festival claims. He lined up in a 0-130 handicap hurdle over 2m4f off the top rating of 130 and made light of his 11st 12lb burden, drawingaway under hands and heels for a comfortable five-length victory.

    He did it in style and I thought he was worth more than the margin, so after recording a figure of 137+ he will be asked to line up off a rating of 140 next time out.

    He holds entries in the Martin Pipe Hurdle, the Coral Cup and the Pertemps Final, and although his two most recent victories have been secured on very testing ground his staying-on seventh in the Fred Winter (over 2m) at last year's festival suggests quicker conditions shouldn't prove a problem.

    This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Plenty to chew on before the banquet begins.

    There was anything but a second-class feel to the last racing week despite its proximity to Cheltenham with big races all over the country on Saturday.

    Aerial edged a pulsating finish to the Grade 3 handicap at Newbury and there was plenty of other graded action elsewhere, with Fontwell and Kelso each staging one of their seasonal highlights.

    Kelso also saw the reappearance of last year's Grand National winner Ballabriggs as he gears up towards his Aintree defence, which is also covered in this week's edition, and we throw in a bit of action from the desert for you Flat fans out there too!

    AERIAL PICKS UP LATE

    Saturday's 2m4f Barbury International Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup produced one of the tightest finishes we've seen in valuable handicap chases this season, writes Graeme Smith.

    It was the Paul Nicholls-trained Aerial who came out on top, but only by a short head from the flagging Dan Breen, and the third and fourth also finished within three and a half lengths as the quartet drew clear.

    With such a tight finish involving that many horses there's no real need to alter their marks drastically.

    The view I took of the race revolved around raising Dan Breen 5lbto 148 - the mark he finished last season on - and the fourth-placed Fine Parchment (last year's winner) 2lb to 135, the mark he'd finished second at Aintree from in the autumn. The third-placed Rileyev therefore went up 4lb to 136 (his actual rise is7lb as he was 3lb out of the handicap), making this a career-best effort stepping up beyond 2m for the first time in a while.

    All of this meant a 6lb rise for Aerial for his most valuable success to date, and his connections will no doubt hope he can defy his mark of 155 when getting a chance over longer trips, having needed every yard to get up.

    I spent Saturday afternoon at Kelso where the totepool.com Premier Chase featured the return of the Grand National winner Ballabriggs.

    The pace was notably steady for much of the contest and all bar the huge outsider still held a chance halfway up the run-in. The proximity of the 128-rated Abbeybraney holds the form down and I've rated the race around him running to that figure, which has both According To Pete and Ballabriggs below their best in the face of an insufficient test of stamina - the latter coming up nearly 30lb shy of his 160 rating.

    That trio all remain on their pre-race marks but Master Of The Hall (who conceded weight all round) earned a rise for his dominant success, his new figure of 151 (up 3lb) reflecting the fact he had a deal more in hand than the four-length margin.

    POOLE WINS SWIMMINGLY

    The weights for all the Cheltenham handicaps were revealed last Wednesday in the traditional press conference held at Prestbury Park, writes Martin Greenwood.

    Part of the process involved telling members of the audience the likely cut-off point for their runners (what rating will likely give your horse a run). I also pointed out that if you were able to win between times you would incur a 5lb penalty, which would help the horses slightly lower down the handicap, and that scenario played out at Newbury on Friday.

    Poole Master, trained by David Pipe, was rated 130 prior to the race, which in normal years would just about get you into both the Coral Cup and the Pertemps, whichhe is entered in.

    Poole Master is also entered in the Martin Pipe handicap for conditionals on the Friday of the festival. This race always attracts a mammoth entry, and the weights on the day are usually very compressed, usually only around 12lb separates top weight from bottom, meaning you would normally need to be rated in the high 120s to get in.

    This year the race has moved from a 0-140 to a 0-145, meaning the likelihood is that you would have to be rated around 133 to get in which of course would have put Poole Master's participation in the race David would clearly love to win for the first time in serious jeopardy.

    Luckily, Poole Master will be able to race off 135, thus enabling him to run in any of the handicaps at Cheltenham, after he scooted up in a novice at Newbury.

    Top rated on BHA figures after winning his last two novices, Poole Master was pretty impressive in accounting for Nicky Henderson's promising Let's Get Serious (who was receiving 4lb) by five lengths, the winning distance not doing justice to his superiority. With the rest of the field well strung out this looked a decent renewal of the race, and Poole Master is now rated 144, meaning he will be 9lb ‘well in' at The Festival.

    CORAL CUP POINTERS

    Two performances among the middle distance hurdlers are worth a mention from last week, writesChris Nash.

    On Sunday Third Intention took the Grade 2 Game Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell in good style. He was stepped up in trip to 2m4f and also had a tongue tie on for the first time and that combination led to whatI have rated as a career-best performance.

    He was a decent juvenile hurdler last season and finished a close seventh in the Triumph with the likes of Brampour and Smad Place behind.

    He came to Fontwell rated 145- having been runner-up in a Taunton handicap in January - and travelled really well prior to coming nine lengths clear under hands-and-heels riding. You could question what he beat, with the formerly useful second (Topolski) and third (Duc De Regniere) both having pulled up last time but it was hard not to be impressed with the manner of his win.

    His mark will rise to 153 and (given that Sunday was the last day that form could be taken into account for the Cheltenham handicaps) that is the rating he will be asked to run off if he takes his chance in the Coral Cup at the Festival.

    Another engaged in the Coral Cup is the novice Tap Night, who won the Grade 2 Premier Novice Hurdle over 2m2f at Kelso on Saturday. His form has a very progressive look to it and he improved his rating 10lb to 142 as he mastered the Tolworth winner Captain Conan (rated 142) late in the day for a two-length success.

    I have used the runner-up to level the race and, taking into account the 3lb penalty he carried, have Tap Night running to 141.

    This victory earns him a 5lb penalty for the Cheltenham handicap, which means he'll line up off a mark of 137 if taking his chance - effectively 4lb well in. The step up to 2m5f at the Festival should also play to his strengths having already won over 2m4f and looked better the further he went on Saturday.

    FOX SETS SIGHTS ONGOLD

    The 2m Dubai Gold Cup will make its debut on Dubai World Cup night later this month and a key trial for that event took place during the week in the shape of the Nad Al Sheba Trophy, a Group 3 contest over 1m6f, writes Stephen Hindle.

    Fox Hunt, now in the care of Mahmood Al Zarooni, was a model of consistency for Mark Johnston in 2011, the German St Leger one of his four wins. He also finished seventh of twenty-three, beaten under three lengths, in the Melbourne Cup on his final start, the form of which is working out extremely well.

    He already looks an improved performer this year, however, following up a win in handicap company on his debut at Meydan with this two and a half length success over Opinion Poll over the same course and distance.

    Opinion Poll was consistent himself in 2011. I had him on 116 (117 was agreed by my international colleagues) and it seemed reasonable to assume he had run to that figure as it also ties in with the fourth, Modun, who was agreed as being 110 at the end of year classifications.

    With Jakkalberry appearing to have run to a similar level as when seventh in the Hong Kong Vase when last seen out in December, this seems pretty solid form, and I have Fox Hunt running to 118.

    Fox Hunt will have a leading chance in the Dubai Gold Cup, but further down the line he won't need to improve much, if at all, to look like a top contender for the only race with the title of solely Gold Cup, at Royal Ascot. His credentials are there for all to see. He has just beaten last year's runner-up Opinion Poll, he shapes as if the extra distancewill suit, and he has already won at the Royal meeting having taken last year's Duke of Edinburgh Handicap.

    This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    SATURDAY saw the tradition precursor to Cheltenham in Sandown’s Imperial Cup card, although the big-race winner, Paintball, could not be aimed at the sizeable bonus for completing an Imperial Cup/Cheltenham Festival double after bruising a foot.

    Our NH handicappers give their views, while Phil Smith answers back at one of the most common criticisms our team receives. There was some quality action on the all-weather too, on which Stewart Copeland gives his take.

    PAINTBALL HITS THE TARGET

    The Paddy Power Imperial Cup looked like being a close race early in the home straight but eventually two horses came away from the others, writes Dave Dickinson.

    Given that the next five home were covered by less than two lengths and that all had solid recent handicap form, finding a marker horse wasn’t much of a problem.

    The winner Paintball is going up 11lb to 139 as a result of Saturday’s win. The well-backed Master Of Arts and Ted Spread appeared to have been laid out for this but Charlie Longsdon’s master plan was the one that worked, Paintball having had a wind operation during his absence from the track.

    Second home was Nampour, whose most recent run had been difficult to assess at the time - he was well beaten by the French import Balgarry at Newbury but finished fourteen lengths and more in front of the rest. I raised him just 4lb for that run at the time but have now revisited the Newbury race and raised it a further 5lb, taking Balgarry up to 145.

    WOOD BURNS THEM OFF

    The final of the EBF National Hunt Novice Hurdlers Series was held at Sandown on Saturday and the Grade 3 handicap was every bit as competitive as ever, with no fewer than fifteen of the eighteen-strong field having finished in the first three last time out, writes Chris Nash.

    The pace wasn’t as helter-skelter as can sometimes be the case and it was noticeable that horses ridden handily did best. The first four were in a line over two out, having all raced in mid-division or closer, and Ambion Wood drew clear from the last to win by an ever-increasing five lengths. He carried top weight from a mark off 132 and is clearly a useful prospect.

    Carrigmorna King (ran off 122) finished second with a further seven lengths back to Aikideau (off 128) and Speed Master (off 126). All four were running in their first handicap so I had to rely on their novice form when levelling the race.

    I settled on a 10lb rise for the winner - taking him to 142 - and a 5lb rise for the runner-up, whilst the ratings of the third and fourth remain unchanged.

    DROPPING HORSES

    We are often told by trainers that they and their owners can't understand why horses go up so much for winning but are hardly ever dropped very much when they lose, writes Phil Smith.

    Often there are very good integrity reasons why we might be reluctant to drop horses quickly, but a look at my handicap winners this week seems to show that this belief is yet another misunderstanding and false perception of what really happens.

    Seven of my handicap winners this week had benefitted from some serious drops on their previous runs.

    Sound Accord ran off 135 at Fontwell and finished sixth. He was dropped a total of 29lb over his next five runs and reaped the benefit with a thirteen-length success at Huntingdon on Sunday off a markof 106.

    Harris Hawk ran off 99 in his first handicap chase and was dropped 8lb prior to going on to win relatively narrowly in a competitive finish at Newcastle next time.

    Wednesday’s Fontwell winner Current Climate ran off 95 at Folkestone in November. He was dropped 7lb for that, went up 2lb for finishing second and was then dropped 2lb in each of his next two races. In total a drop of 9lb in four runs in which he picked up prize money in three of them.

    Mr Woods ran off 117 when pulling up at Ayr in March last year. He was having only his fifth run since when taking advantage of a mark of 86 (total of 31lb) at Carlisle last Thursday, and he then went on to defy a 7lb penalty at Ayr two days later. He’s now going back to 110.

    Merigo was second in the Scottish National last April off 142, beaten less than a length. Following four substandard efforts he won off a mark of 129 when regaining his form at Ayr on Friday, and now his owner tells me a 7lb rise for that success looks harsh!! Hobb's Dream had dropped 18lb in four runs prior to winning at Wincanton off 88, and Dover’s Hill was 8lb lower than two runs earlier when he returned to form with a bang at Sandown at the weekend.

    Horses DO come down quickly when their lack of form warrants it and hopefully our work gives them an equal chance with those horses whose ratings have been left or havegone up. At the same time horses can still win when we put them up quite large amounts, as demonstrated by Hunt Ball, who has gone up another 3lb this week after the form of his Kempton win was franked by the runner-up’s subsequent success.As a result he has gone up 76lb for his six wins.

    By all means criticise us but please from a position of knowledge and understanding not from old chestnuts peddled out without statistical back up and out of prejudice and ignorance.

    DREAM SEQUENCE

    Meydan may have staged Super Saturday at the weekend but there was some excellent fare on the Flat much closer to home, with Wolverhampton staging its most valuable card of the year on the same day, writes Stewart Copeland.

    The opening race was the New William Hill iPhone App Lady Wulfruna Stakes, a listed contest for older horses over 7f.

    Itproduced something of a surprise winner in the shape of Libys Dream, a four-year-old filly trained by Tom Dascombe. She’s been in good form throughout the winter, successful in two handicaps in that period, improving her rating from 66 to 81. This win represented a further marked improvement, however, and she’s been credited with a rating of 95.

    Always well positioned just off the pace, she led inside the last to hold off the challenge of Belgian Bill by a head, with the consistent Clockmaker a further length and a half back in third.

    Based on our race standards, we’d expect such a winner to be in the 95-100 bracket, but given the pace of the race seemed to favour those who raced prominently, I’ve erred more on the cautious side of that scale. It also means that Clockmaker has run to his mark of 96, a reliable guide to the level of the race as well.

    Later on in the afternoon there was a good quality 6f handicap, and the finish was dominated by a couple of progressive four-year-old geldings, with Alben Star edging out Whaileyy by a short head.

    The former is quickly making up for lost time having missed the whole of 2011 through injury, and his win in the Class 2 William Hill App-Download Today! represented his best form to date.

    Successful off 92, he improved his rating to 98, and in the more than capable hands of Richard Fahey it’ll be no surprise if he steps up again down the line, looking the sort to make his presence felt in top class handicaps back on turf.

    This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Lots to digest after fantastic Cheltenham

    A fantastic week and we have a bulging blog. There are reflections on the standings of Champions and possible future Champions, whilst deep into the piece Martin Greenwood and Chris Nash fire back at some criticism the team was surprised to receive during the week.

    A TRUE CHAMPION?

    The Stan James Champion Hurdle may have produced a shock result butit proved a relatively easy race to assess, writes Dave Dickinson.

    The admirable Overturn had run to 166 on two of his last three starts and it seems hard to imagine he has run below that rating, given the wonderful ride he got from his pilot, Jason Maguire. Using Overturn as the benchmark, the winner Rock On Ruby is raised 5lb to 170.

    So what of Hurricane Fly and Binocular? The going map showed that the good to soft ground in the good (good to soft in places) was all in the back straight on the climb towards the third last.

    Consequently kicking at the top of the hill was a very good tactic, certainly on the first two days. When Maguire made his move having briefly slowed the pace going up the hill, Noel Fehily on Rock on Ruby was in a position to cover it but the two previous winners were not.

    Worse still, they were also caughtbehind horses who were in the same boat. I would take nothing away from the winner but another race between Rock on Ruby, Hurricane Fly and Binocular would be well worth seeing.

    Cinders And Ashes proved an up to standard winner of the William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle running to a figure of 151, using both the second and third as benchmarks.

    The JCB Triumph proved an altogether trickier race to reassess. I used Hollow Tree, who was seventh home, as my benchmark to put Countrywide Flame up to 152.

    The solid pace in this race compared well with the County Hurdle thirty-five minutes later and the diminutive winner never looked likely to play a leading role until the home straight, leaving the strong impression the emphasis was firmly on stamina, something he does not seem to lack.

    There was a suspicion he may have been flattered by staying towards the middle of the course as only the third home Sailors Warn of the first four in the following County Hurdle began his move towards the stands' side in the home straight. However, that theory didn't appear to hold up in the conditional jockeys' handicap later on the card.

    KING IN WAITING?

    Sprinter Sacre (169) lined up for last week's Racing Post Arkle as the highest-rated novice chaser this century, and his dazzling performance at Cheltenham underlined why, writes John de Moraville.

    The imposing six-year-old was never out of second gear in taking his unbeaten chase record to four with Barry Geraghty employing cruise control throughout.

    Cue Card ran a career-best 157 in second - on a par with the three previous Arkle runners-up - Finian's Rainbow, Somersby and Kalahari King - but Sprinter Sacre did not have to better his eye-watering Game Spirit performance to strollhome by seven lengths.

    Would Sprinter Sacre have won the Queen Mother Champion Chase? Impossible to say but he is already rated just 4lb below last week's winner Finian's Rainbow and has yet to come off the bridle.

    With boundless scope for further improvement it's no wonder he is already a warm order for next year's 2m showpiece. Look at the difference a year has made to Finian's Rainbow - 157 after last year's Arkle and now top of the pile on 173.

    While Finian's Rainbow and defending champion Sizing Europe (171) fought out a thrilling duel, last week's Queen Mother - with the final fence having to be bypassed - was anunsatisfactory renewal.

    Next year that pair will be ten and eleven years of age respectively, too, so it's perhaps no surprise that the dashing young pretender is hovering around the even-money mark to seize the crown in 2013.

    Sprinter Sacre wasn't the only novice chaser to leave an indelible impression on the heaving Cheltenham masses. The Irish have a budding new star in unbeaten Sir Des Champs (162), immediately ear-marked for next year's Gold Cup after fluently disposing of gallant Champion Court (155) in the Jewson Novices' Chase.

    There was no shortage of candidates for ride of the week - Barry Geraghty (RiversideTheatre) and Tony McCoy (Synchronised) spring readily to mind. But for sheer artistry and audacity, Paul Carberry producing 'bridle horse' Bellvano (up 10lb to 148) to snatch the concluding Grand Annual Chase in the final 75 yards took some beating.

    RIVER IN FULL FLOW

    Thursday's Grade 1 Ryanair Chase was the strongest renewal of the race to date, writes Mark Olley.

    Pre-race Riverside Theatre, Albertas Run and Rubi Light were all rated 168, while Somersby and Kalahari King were 166.

    Albertas Run probably produced the best effort in defeat of this year's Festival and I see no reason why he didn't repeat the form he'd shown when winning the last two runnings, so have based the race around him on 168. Medermit was half a length behind and moves up 2lb to a new career-high figure of 167.

    Alan King's gelding has run a string of excellent races this winter and if he can just sharpen up his jumping a top prize must surely come his way.

    I have allowed 2lb for the half-length winning margin of Riverside Theatre as he didn't get the clearest of runs, being repeatedly bumped, and this moves Nicky Henderson's top-class gelding to a new high of 170 - a mark that can also be justified on the two Ascot wins he'd recorded prior to this.

    This compares very favourably with recent winners of this race - Albertas Run ran to his 168 in both 2011 & 2010, Imperial Commander was 165 in 2009 and Our Vic was 168 in 2008.

    There have been many column inches devoted to Hunt Ball and his remarkable climb up the handicap this winter, but his effort is not quite unique as anyone who remembers Venn Ottery can testify.

    In July 2003 Venn Ottery was rated 64 when trained by Oliver Carter and by March 2004 he had reached the height of 149 when in the care of Paul Nicholls. This is the exact same 85lb rise that Hunt Ball has made this season, but I guess Hunt Ball just shades it as technically he has gone from 68 to 154 (86lbs) as on his first handicap run/win he raced from 1lb out of the weights! Either way they are both remarkable horses.

    TRIALS AND TRIBULATIONS

    "There's definitely a north-south divide in jumping these days, as you win a little race up there and go up 8lb and come down here and find you're at least a stone wrong."

    You would imagine these were the disillusioned rantings of a northern trainer after one of his stalwarts was tailed off in one of the big races 'down South', writes Martin Greenwood.

    However, it was the quote supplied to the Racing Post by Malcolm Jefferson after his Cape Tribulation had won the Pertemps Final on the Thursday of the Festival.

    Jefferson who trains in North Yorkshire couldn't resist traipsing out the same prosciutto-thin argument that the BHA handicapping team treat the trainers based in the north differently to their southern counterparts, despite all known evidence and stats strongly suggesting otherwise. It seems even standing next to a Cheltenham winner can't budge such entrenched views!

    Cape Tribulation returned to something like his best (now 150) after winning off 142, and he was the second 'northern' handicap hurdle winner of the festival following the Donald McCain-trained Son of Flicka's victory in the Coral Cup the previous day - Attaglance (also trained by Malcolm Jefferson) became the third of the week on the final day and is covered by Chris Nash later in the blog.

    Son of Flicka, up 7lb to 142, also returned to near his best and made amends for his close second at the 2011 festival.

    The three non-handicaps I looked after at Cheltenham were of course headed by the Ladbrokes World Hurdle, which everyone in racing knows was won for an historic fourth consecutive time by Big Buck's.

    An incredible reception greeted the winner post-race, and even an unsentimental cynic like myself was moved by the joyous scenes, which included witnessing a very emotional female RUK stalwart.

    Anybody who has read this blog over the years will know the undiluted admiration I have given to this horse ever since I awarded him the rating of 174 in March 2009, when I described him as a machine. That rating has never changed since, and remains the highest rating I have given in my time as a handicapper.

    Superbly ridden a usual by Walsh, who, it seems, is always aware of imminent dangers while riding Big Buck's, the horse predictably found more for pressure after his closest challenger, the game Voler La Vedette (who put up a personal best of 160, receiving 7lb), appeared to be cruising. Superlatives run dry for such an imperious racehorse like Big Buck's, and it would take a brave soul to bet against him to make it five in a row.

    Obviously it would be no surprise that Big Buck's was clear in the ratings, and the BHA had another top-rated winner in the 2m5f Neptune novices on Wednesday.

    Simonsig had created a big impression prior to then, and certainly enhanced his profile even further with a most clear-cut victory by seven lengths from Irish-challenger Felix Younger, having been left clear when Cotton Mill ducked out two out. The five-year standards suggest 153, while the time comparison suggests 161.

    I have rated the 'bare' form of the race around the standards which make both Felix Younger and Cotton Mill (who I have estimated would have finished around the runner-up spot) both 147, with Simonsig up 9lb to a minimum of 157.

    Simonsig is already a classperformer, and he looks certain to play a part in top races next season whatever his chosen targets.

    The 3m novice on Friday looked to be between Boston Bob (151), Sea of Thunder (149) and Brindisi Breeze (148) on the ratings, and two of those fought out the finish. Sea of Thunder, who achieved his rating when falling at the last at Cheltenham in December, hasn't lived up to that form since and was particularly disappointing on his return to the track.

    The other two more or less confirmed their pre-race ratings, Brindisi Breeze again showing strong staying capabilities once hitting the front at the ninth, keeping up the gallop relentlessly to see off Boston Bob by two lengths.

    The latter was asked to go about his business later than the winner and a mistake at the last put paid to his chance. Brindisi Breeze is now 150, while Boston Bob will be a maximum of that figureshould he return to the Britain again this season. Grand Vision in third (147 from 136) and Meister Eckhart (141 from 133) in fifth continued on the upgrade, while fourth-placed Lovcen confirmed his pre-race rating of 142.

    Finally, returning to my original theme, it should be noted that Brindisi Breeze is trained in Scotland, and Countrywide Flame, winner of the Triumph earlier in the day, is trained in Yorkshire. Add these to the three handicap winners already mentioned and maybe it's the turn of the trainers based in the south to complain about their northern brethren!

    MORE THAN A GLANCE

    Further to Martin Greenwood's piece on the north-south divide, I thought it worth looking at the result of the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle in depth, writes Chris Nash.

    Attaglance prevailed in a tight finish to give Malcolm Jefferson his second handicap success of the week, with a neck and the same back to Toner d'Oudairies and Oscar Nominee and the first eight covered by seven lengths.

    Within those eight horses we had runners trained not only in the north and the south but also two trained in Ireland. They were aged from five to eight years and were a mix of experiencedhandicappers and unexposed novices. Two had won last time out, one had been placed on his most recent start and five hadn't been especially competitive.

    As such the race stands up as a fine example of what our team is trying to achieve - a competitive race with an exciting finish regardless of horse profile.

    Attaglance had gone up 9lb for winning 'a little race in the north' on his previous start. He goes up a further 5lb on the back of this.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Changing focus as Flat racing takes centre stage.

    The National Hunt team still have big meetings at Aintree and Sandown to look forward to but Saturday was a definite sign that spring is here as Flat racing took centre stage for the first time this year. Lingfield’s card saw the first pattern race of the British season in the Winter Derby, while a field of potentially smart three-year-olds from the Spring Cup are also discussed within today's blog.

    GOING LOCO

    The 2012 edition of the Group 3 Blue Square Winter Derby Stakes over 1m2f at Lingfield on Saturday went the way of dependable veteran Premio Loco, writes Greg Pearson.

    Given a ‘gun ride’ by the underutilised George Baker, the eight-year-old gelding equalled his best all-weather figure of 111, which he’d previously achieved when fourth in the Group 2 Godolphin Mile at Meydan last year.

    Premio Loco’s rating will remain at 113, a figure derived from his second in the Group 2 Nayef Joel Stakes over the Rowley Mile at Newmarket three starts back. Comparing his performance with recent winners of the Winter Derby, only the Clive Brittain-trained Hattan ran higher when posting a performance of 113 in 2008.

    Premio Loco became the first horse to win a Winter Derby carrying a penalty since Caluki won a muddling renewal in 2004, defying a 5lb penalty to that horse’s 3lb extra burden too.

    In second was the solid 105-performer Cai Shen who was beaten half a length in receipt of 5lb from the winner and as such ran to his mark using a 1lb differential for the margin. There is little doubt the Richard Hannon-trained colt received few favours from his wide draw but I don’t necessarily subscribe to the theory that he was an unlucky loser. The third-placed Circumvent had a pre-race rating of 98 but ran to 104. He’s much less exposed on all-weather so I gave him a separate all-weather mark of 104 whilse increasing his turf rating to just 100 – I feel a turf mark in excess of 100 would have been too high given he had ten starts on the surface in 2011 without running above that level.

    GUSTO SPRINGS FORWARD

    It’s been well publicised that Richard Hannon won the Listed bluesquare.com Spring Cup at Lingfield with subsequent Group 1 performers Paco Boy and Dubawi Gold during their respective three-year-old careers, and comparisons will no doubt be drawn between that pair and his latest winner Gusto, writes Graeme Smith.

    While it’s a bold call to suggest Gusto will go on to emulate those horses at the top level I have him recording a stronger performance than they did in the 7f Lingfield contest – Paco Boy ran to 96+ in 2008 and Dubawi Gold 106 last year – so Gusto's 110 effort is the best in the race’s ten-year history.

    Admittedly it wasn’t a truly-run contest and Gusto was probably at an advantage going from the front, but nevertheless both he and third-placed Bannock (pre-race 110, now 108) had won listed races as juveniles and the front three drew four lengths clear of the recent handicap scorer Pale Orchid (rated 91). As such I took the view that it was worth rating the race higher than the 105 figure the historical standards suggested – my 110 on Gusto has Pale Orchid running bang on his pre-race rating.

    This level admittedly means an 8lb rise for runner-up Kenny Powers, who’d recently returned from Dubai, though he is still lightly raced and was completely unexposed on all-weather. If anything there’s a case for suggesting better still may come from him – he came from a poorer position than the pair he split and was the only one able to make any inroads into their advantage as he finished strongly.

    IMPROVEMENT ON THE CARDS

    Tipping is all about the future and handicapping is all about the past. This is why handicappers do not try to make their living as tipsters, writes Matthew Tester.

    However, at January’s press conference for the World Thoroughbred Rankings, the journalists always ask us to give them “dark horses” for the classics. A few newspapers reported my nomination that 40-1 about Most Improved for the 2000 Guineas looked way too generous. Handicappers are not allowed to bet - to do so is a sackable offence. But it is encouraging that Most Improved has recently snuck down to 8-1 third favourite for the race.

    Most Improved is trained by BrianMeehan at Manton. I spent four years there learning from Barry Hills when he was the trainer at Manton. Barry has since complained that I had four years helping him to win races followed by a lifetime trying to stop him!
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

  15. #75
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    I love the way he gives himself a pat on the back for tipping a horse at 40/1 that is now 8/1.

  16. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    I love the way he gives himself a pat on the back for tipping a horse at 40/1 that is now 8/1.
    Have to give him credit for finding that value bet but history dictates that there is significant evidence Most Improved will end up missing the race and running in a conditions event in October, be sold to America or be pulled up in a Classic.
    Last edited by Bruce_Savage; 27th March 2012 at 8:51 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    I love the way he gives himself a pat on the back for tipping a horse at 40/1 that is now 8/1.
    All handicappers love themselves...
    Do not mistake my silence for ignorance, my calmness for acceptance nor my kindness for weakness.

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    SATURDAY saw a bumper day of action on the Flat, the turf season opening at Doncaster, Kempton staging one of the best Polytrack cards of the entire year and Meydan hosting the world's richest race in the Dubai World Cup. Our team of Flat handicappers cover the highlights.

    HILL TOP

    I have something of a love/hate relationship with theLincoln, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

    I look forward to it each year as it marks the start of a new turf season and all that it promises over the coming months and I enjoy the fact that it is contested by a bunchof largely exposed older handicappers, who compete for a nice prize without the nuisance of a rapidly improving three-year-old or two that the big mile handicaps later in the year tend to come with.

    On the other hand, the big yards (Gosden, Haggas etc) often prepare a future Group horse for it while the time of year means that, with fitness at a premium, the actual race itself sometimes doesn't provide the competitive and exciting finish that makes the job worthwhile.

    This year, however, was a good year. Having finished runner-up in last year's race off 95 Brae Hill went one better off the same mark on Saturday, beating fast-finishing ex-stable companion Mull Of Killough (96) by a shorthead with the Haggas-trained Fury (98) a length further away in third. The winner was having his thirty-third start and is unlikely to have made vast improvement on anything we have seen from him before - he has never been much better than a 97-98 performer at his very best - but I am happy to call this his best performance yet for the time being and have raised him 4lb to a new mark of 99.

    While the runner-up is slightly less exposed he was still having the 17th start of his career and had never been better than 96 previously - once again I am happy to believe this is a career-best and have moved him up 3lb, also to 99.

    Third-placed Fury is an interesting one as he looked a Group horse in the making early last season after finishing fifth in Frankel's 2,000 Guineas and being touched off for the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown. Immediately after that performance he was rated 106 but the wheels fell off in a big way and he finished last in all three of his subsequent starts, registering performance figures in the low 80s in all three. Subsequently gelded and allowed to compete off 98 on Saturday he showed a return to form and will be raised 1lb to 99for the handicaps in which his future now seems to lie.

    One final pat on the back from the Lincoln goes to fourth-placed Edinburgh Knight who ran a blinder under top weight off a mark of 104. He also goes up 1lb to 105 (which should keep a number of top handicaps open to him) and proves that top weights can be perfectly competitive in these big handicaps.

    The William Hill Spring Mile (the Lincoln consolation) also provided a very satisfactory result from a handicapping perspective. Again the top weight Kyllachy Star proved competitive in finishing second off a mark of 90 and will be raised only 1lb to a new mark of 91 for his effort, but he had to give best to 50-1 shot Norse Blues who took the contest off 85. He is another about whom the handicappers know plenty and I have done nothing more than raise him back to his previous career high of 90 (+5lb) for his success.

    The most interesting horse from the race, however, was fourth-placed Captain Bertie (84). He is another who was gelded over the winter and came in for significant market support, which he might have justified with more luck in running having met with all sorts of trouble during the race, dropping back to the rear of the field and then finishing like an express train to grab fourth. So the conundrum for me was whether to revise his rating in terms of what he might have achieved or what he actually achieved?

    It is a dangerous game rerating horses on what you think they might have run to with more luck - you have to be very sure of the probable outcome if you are to base a horse's future rating on it. Yes, Captain Bertie looked extremely unlucky and his supporters probably feel aggrieved but I don't feel I can say with certainty that he would have won. I have raised his rating by 1lb (to 85), which means he will meet second and third on the same terms in a future handicap and be 4lb better off with the winner - I also have it in mind that he has not won a race since September 2010 and palpably failed to "go on" after a hugely encouraging seasonal reappearancelast year when second in the Esher Cup at Sandown in April. We will see.

    Over in Dubai the Godolphin Mile was overshadowed in terms of quality by a number of other races on the card but still produced an impressive winner in the shape of African Story. A relatively "moderate" miler when in the care of Andre Fabre in France last year (rated 111 in the European Rankings), his career has taken off since setting foot on Meydan's Tapeta track and, but for a luckless run in the Firebreak in February he would now be four from four on the surface. At the present time I have a figure of 120 on his performance, although one or two of my international colleagues are favouring 119 - obviously all this will shake down as the year progresses and it will be interesting to see the path Godolphin tread with him and whether he can translate his new found improvement back onto turf.

    TALE OF TWO CITIES

    The Roger Charlton trained six-year-old Cityscape posted a career-best performance in winning the Group 1 Dubai Duty Free Stakes over 1m 1f at Meydan on Saturday, writes Greg Pearson.

    Going into the race he was rated 121, a figure he had achieved when third in the 2011 Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot behind Canford Cliffs and a narrow second to Dick Turpin in Milan's Group 1 Premio Vittorio Di Capua Stakes.

    Without question it was a strong Group 1 field that he comprehensively outpointed here in a track record time - there was only one runner rated below 116 in third-placed City Style (113), and that gelding came with a progressive profile. Taking a line through Mutahadee reproducing the 116+ figure he achieved when scoring a facile handicap success three starts back would suggest Cityscape ran to 125 in beating that one by a comfortable four and a quarter lengths (which I called 9lb). To put things in perspective against recent winners, 125 is the performance figure I allocated to Gladiatorus when he obliterated the 2009 field at Nad Al Sheba in most impressive fashion - incidentally both he and Cityscape were racing beyond 1m for the first time.

    Testament to Cityscape's toughness and durability, he has been widely travelled and astutely placed by Charlton to win Group races in four different countries (England, Ireland, France and Dubai). Not many horses can attest to that.

    Pre-race favourite Ambitious Dragon ran disappointingly but pulled himself into theground through the early and middle stages, and it's debateable whether he was entirely comfortable racing in the anti-clockwise direction.

    Later on the card was the world's richest race - the Group 1 Dubai World Cup over 1m2f. This result had a British flavour with the first two, Monterosso and Capponi (both now with Mahmood Al Zarooni), both having represented Mark Johnston earlier in their careers. Unlike last year's running, which will long be remembered for the farcically slow pace, this year's edition was a more truly-run contest and saw Monterosso (pre-race 121) produce a career-best performance of 127 in beating the 122-rated Capponi by three lengths.

    Capponi had beaten Monterosso when winning the Group 1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 three weeks earlier, but it was clear Monterosso had derived significant benefit from that race after a year off.

    Unlike many others from my native Australia I have given up making excuses for So You Think. Make no mistake he is a serious racehorse - he's run to figures of between 118 and 126 on all nine starts for Aidan O'Brien - but superstar is a term I no longer associate with him, acknowledging his three European Group 1 successes. Bring on Royal Ascot - we need the great mare Black Caviar to come and restore some credibility for the Aussies.

    CLASSIC ACTION

    Among all the top-class action on Dubai World Cup night I had the privilege of applying figures to a couple of races, writes Stephen Hindle.

    The Dubai Sheema Classic, a 1m4f Group 1 event worth the best part of £2 million, was a very classy affair, with Champion Stakes winner Cirrus Des Aigles holding on by a neck from Breeders' Cup Turf winner St Nicholas Abbey.

    Whilst St Nicholas Abbey was possibly inconvenienced to a degree by allowing the winner first run in a race run at less than a true gallop, he did have enough time to get past and I set my level around the Aidan O'Brien-trained stalwart, electing to have him running to 124, the same figure as in the Breeders' Cup.

    That gave a performance rating of 125 for Cirrus des Aigles, the high-class French gelding still a little below his high watermark of 128 earned at Ascot.

    Jakkalberry stayed on well down the outside for Britain, though still finishing three and a half lengths adrift of St Nicholas Abbey, and he looked back to near his best, running to 119.

    AnotherO'Brien inmate, Treasure Beach, was half a length further back in fourth and the Irish Derby winner helps give the form a solid look, as does the consistent South African-trained mare Mahbooba in fifth.

    It was nice to see the ultra-consistent Opinion Poll return to the winners enclosure following the Dubai Gold Cup as he held on to beat Joshua Tree, like Jakkalberry trained by Marco Botti, by a comfortable three-quarters of a length.

    For a stayer, Opinion Poll has an excellent turn of foot and he displayed it two furlongs out to put the race to bed. I often base my races around him and saw this one as no different, another 116 meaning Joshua Tree has repeated a couple of 114 performances we had for him last season. Opinion Poll has now made the frame in his last nineteen races and looks set for another solid campaign in 2012.

    THAT'S MY BOY

    The new two-year-old season kicked off on Saturday which was great news because I am always excited to see the new crop start, writes Matthew Tester.

    My Boy Bill won the Brocklesby in tidy style and my impression is that he is a nice prospect. He was ridden with patience and went past them well despite having to be switched to get his run. This race varies considerably in class and time will tell how strong this renewal was.

    With Stewart Copeland away on holiday, I have also been helping with some of the sprinters to make up my workload.

    The highest rated performance I looked after this week was in Dubai's Golden Shaheen at Meydan on Saturday. Krypton Factor pulled away from a high-class field and we have him pencilled in at 124. Rocket Man had won the same race last year but was two and a quarter lengths away in second. Third was Luck Or Design who had won the big sprint in Hong Kong on Cathay Pacific day in December.

    To put that in perspective, Dream Ahead was a 126-horse last year which tells you how impressive this performance looks.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Mile performers to the fore on the Flat.

    We expect the NH handicappers to be out in force next week following Aintree's showcase meeting and this week sees a shorter piece concentrating on the Flat.

    Our 1m handicapper Dominic Gardiner-Hill runs the rule over a good-quality meeting that took place at Kempton on Saturday, whilst 7f assessor Graeme Smith details the sort of considerations that went into rating an above-average maiden winner when having relatively little form to go on.

    MILES CLEAR

    A relatively quiet week over 1m burst into life at Kempton on Saturday with four interesting races over the distance, producing three performances in excess of 100, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

    All-weather regular Nazreef set the ball rolling with a convincing three-length success in the Betfred Goals Galore (London Mile) Handicap off a mark of 96.

    At the age of five and having his eleventh start on the AW, I didn't think there was much more to know about Hughie Morrison's gelding but with the benefit of a first time visor and a canny front running ride from Darryl Holland, he produced a career-best and will be raised 7lb to 103.

    Unfortunately for him, opportunities on the AW at that level will be few and far between and a return to turf must surely be imminent. He is nowhere near as effective on the grass and I have raised his turf mark just 2lb to 87 - the mark off which he was a very creditable fifth (beaten under two lengths) in the Spring Cup at Newbury last April.

    As I say Holland deserves the plaudits for the ride he gave Nazreef and it was a race in which it proved impossible to make any great impact from behind - the first four home filled those same positions throughout and a number of horses deserve another chance off the marks they ran off, so any changes that weremade were nothing more than tweaks with the out of form pair of The Tichborne (-2lb to 85) and Final Drive (-3lb to 90) getting the biggest drops.

    The best performance of the day belonged to Captivator in taking the Listed Betfred Mobile Sports Snowdrop Stakes.

    Using well-supported runner-up Law of the Range (104) as a guide to the level of the race, I have James Fanshawe's filly running to a career-high 105; progressive when campaigned over 1m2f last season, the drop in trip seemed to suit and she is raised from her pre-race 94 to 105. It will be interesting to see if this form stands up as the season progresses and whether Captivator can transfer this improvement back on to the turf.

    Next up was Mick Channon's Laugh Out Loud in the Betfred "When Both Teams Score" Stakes. Something of an unknown quantity and rated only 80 after a ten-length course-and-distance maiden victory in February, she came with a wet sail and performed to 96 in winning going away from runner-up Way Too Hot (93).

    The key to the race appears to be the Hannon-trained third Esentepe who was by far the most exposed of the ten runners (having her tenth career start) and, in my book, is unlikely to have improved on her pre-race mark of 92.

    Possibly the most interesting filly from the race is Godolphin's Tactfully who came from a very unpromising position to finish fourth. I'm sure Mickael Barzalona will have many fine hours during his association with the "boys in blue" but this is unlikely to be numbered amongst them. Raised from 85 to 91 for this effort, she left the impression she should be capable of better, possibly over further.

    The third 100+ performance of the meeting was produced by the John Gosden-trained Eastern Sun in the Betfred "Double Delight" Stakes.

    The key to the race appears to be Leqqaa (95 - third) and Lord of the Shadows (98 - fifth) pretty much running to their marks suggesting that, taking into account the ease and style of win, Eastern Sun has run to 103.

    He holds an entry in the 2,000 Guineas and whilst he will have to improve another stone plus to make any sort of impact there he should pay his way this season, possible over 1m2f rather than this 1m.

    Runner-up Miblish went into the race rated 78 and is judged to have improved by 19lb to 97. When making a decision like this the handicapper is always looking for good reasons as to why a horse may have shown such dramatic improvement and the crucial factor here appears to be the wearing of a tongue tie for the first time...and he is trained by Clive Brittain!!

    SURPRISE SURPRISE

    Post-race comments suggest Born To Surprise's dominant display in a 7f maiden at Doncaster last Sunday was anything but unexpected, writes Graeme Smith.

    Sent off 7-4 favourite on the back of a second placing at Warwick on his sole juvenile outing, the imposing son of Exceed And Excel bounded clear from the penultimate furlong under hands-and-heels riding from Jamie Spencer, opening up a six-length margin prior to being eased down for a five-length success.

    It's hard to be dogmatic about what he achieved with the vast majority of the field lightly raced, but previous form lines suggested I put the runner-up Star Date in on a mark around 78 and the sixth-placed Take Two on around 65.

    A line through the latter at 65 put Star Date's performance at 76 - I'm happy to reason he'd have finished 2lb/one length closer had he raced in closer touch given the work he did late - and generated a bare figure of 86 for Born To Surprise.

    Adding in 2lb for the length he was eased, plus an estimated 4lb for the fact he produced this performance without ever coming under maximum pressure, I arrived at a handicap mark of 92 for Born To Surprise.

    A figure above 90 would make finding a handicap very difficult for Born To Surprise's trainer Michael Bell (most handicaps of that sort of value require a horse to have run three times), but it looks as though his sights are set on the Group 3 Craven Stakes in any case.

    His dam, Dubai Surprise, won twice in Group 3 company and was runner-up in a Group 1, and it will come as no surprise to me if he increases his rating further still when given the opportunity to run against better horses.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Finian's proves class but focus remains on Sacre
    The most closely-fought Grand National finish in memory is discussed fully in Phil Smith's forthcoming head of handicapping blog. However, there were plenty of other top-class races to get the teeth into on the supporting cards too, and all are covered by the remainder of the jumps team here. Furthermore, in the spirit of including something for everyone there's also a section on a listed contest from the Flat and an explanation of the changes to the rules for nurseries.

    OVER THE RAINBOW

    Finian's Rainbow lit up Aintree by completing the coveted Queen Mother Champion Chase- John Smith's Melling Chase double last achieved in the same season in 2005 by the mighty Moscow Flyer, writes John de Moraville.

    While yet to hit the magic 180 rating attained by that Irish-trained legend, Michael Buckley's star, by routing the opposition in Friday's Grade 1 showpiece, silenced those who questioned the merit of his defeat of Sizing Europe at Cheltenham, where the final fence had to be bypassed.

    Extraordinarily for a horse with his list of achievements, Finian's Rainbow is in danger of being overshadowed by his freakish novice stable-companion Sprinter Sacre (169), but he looked every inch a champion last week in running to a mark of 172+.

    It was good to see Wishfull Thinking (164), whose Cheltenham fall led to that festival controversy, finally recapturing his best form of last spring andfinishing an honourable seven-lengths runner-up.

    His long-suffering connections had plenty to celebrate on Thursday when another of their potentially top-class chasers, Menorah, belatedly got his act together in the Grade 1 Betfred Manifesto Novices' Chase.

    With Sprinter Sacre (169) in a class of his own in the 2m novice division - as he ruthlessly underlined with a bloodless 1-7 victory in Saturday's Grade 1 Maghull Chase - Menorah (162) found the slower tempo of this 2m4f (won by Wishfull Thinking a year ago) putting less strain on his hitherto fragile jumping.

    Al Ferof, hot favourite for the Manifesto, was a disappointing third but his trainer Paul Nicholls had earlier unleashed one of the most improved novices of the season, Edgardo Sol, to romp away with the Matalan.co.uk Red Rum Handicap.

    Edgardo Sol's previous visit to Aintree last October had resulted in a controversial victory, by a nose, off 127. Progressive since over hurdles - he was an arguably-unlucky second in Cheltenham's County Hurdle - he ran off 143 in the Red Rum and, having turned that usually highly competitive event into a procession, has been upped a stone to 157.

    Talking of improvers, he is now, coincidentally, on the same mark as the celebrated Hunt Ball though the latter did kick off the campaign on 68!

    SIMON SAYS....

    ...I am the best novice hurdler of the season! Simonsig further enhanced his burgeoning reputation with an easy win in the John Smith's Mersey Novices' Hurdle at Aintree last Saturday, writes Martin Greenwood.

    Odds-on following his demolition of the 2m5f novice at the Cheltenham Festival, which earned him the top novice rating of 157, Simonsig treated his rivals at Aintree with the same contempt, strolling clear on the bridle to beat Super Duty (now 142) by 15 lengths. I have adjusted his rating to 161, which equals the rating achieved by Black Jack Ketchum in 2005/6, and that pair are the two highest-rated staying novice hurdlers since Iris's Gift in 2002/3. There is almost certainly more to come from Simonsig, and whether he stays hurdling or embarks on a chasing career, many more big-race successes look likely.

    The only horse to have defeated Simonsig was the previously-unbeaten Fingal Bay who got the better of him at Sandown in December. Fingal Bay, who missed Cheltenham due to injury, was a hot favourite for in the Sefton Novices' over 3m at Aintree the previous day. However on this occasion the formbook didn't quite follow thescript. Lovcen, seemingly beaten fair and square behind Brindisi Breeze at Cheltenham, continued his improvement and achieved a rating of 150 (the same as Brindisi Breeze) with a one-and-three-quarter-lengths success, proving the stronger stayer of the pair despite the runner-up having looked stamina laden over shorter trips. There is a chance that Fingal Bay's pre-race rating of 153 (achieved at Sandown) flattered him, and for the time being at least he is rated 148, still his best effort other than at Sandown.

    My other 2m4f+ hurdle races from Aintree resulted in déjà vu results for the Jefferson-trained pair Cape Tribulation (now 158) and Attaglance (now 155), who achieved the rare distinction of winning handicaps at both festivals and have never been better, while Big Buck's managed to beat the record for consecutive wins over jumps and won his fourth straight Liverpool Hurdle in awesome fashion. He had a straightforward task on paper which was made even easier due to mishaps to his most likely threats.

    The other race in my division also had déjà vu applied, Oscar Whiskey repeating his neck victory over Thousand Stars in the Aintree Hurdle, after neither had convinced over 3m at Cheltenham on their previous starts. The runner-up returned to his very best (164), while the winner (who ran to 165) remains on his pre-race rating of 167, at least until the handicapping teams from the UK and Ireland meet to discuss the end of season ratings in early May. The big disappointment in the race was Champion Hurdle winner Rock On Ruby, preferred in the betting to stable companion and Cheltenham fifth Zarkandar, who ran well below his best in third. Perhaps the longer trip, or making the running, was not ideal for Rock On Ruby, but at least he got round, which is more than you can say for Zarkandar.

    EXTINGUISHING THE FLAME

    The four weeks between the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals resulted in some very solid novice events on Merseyside with plenty of the Cheltenham rivals crossing swords again, writes Dave Dickinson.

    Triumph-winner Countrywide Flame had his colours lowered by the Alan King-trained Grumeti who hadn't helped his prospects at Prestbury Park with a couple of significant jumping errors. Grumeti took a while to get to Countrywide Flame,who himself had shown more speed than some people might have expected when going to the front on the home turn. This may not have suited him perfectly but given that he increased his superiority from Cheltenham over both Sadler's Risk and the badly-hampered Dodging Bullets, it is hard to conclude that he has run below that winning form. Consequently I have used him as my benchmark and raised Grumeti 5lb to 153, making him currently the top-rated juvenile.

    Friday's Grade 2 Novice Hurdle suggests the Supreme-second Darlan probably also improved from Cheltenham. Three of those behind him that day, Prospect Wells, Vulcanite and Agent Archie, were further behind him here and his new rating of 151 - arrived at using the 134-rated Vulcanite as a benchmark - puts him on the same mark as his Cheltenham conqueror Cinders and Ashes.

    FIGHT OR FLIGHT

    A decent-looking renewal of the listed Further Flight Stakes was won by the Clive Cox-trained Electrolyser, who had failed to make much of an impact in a couple of hot races in Dubai but found this more to his liking, dictatingas he liked and putting things to bed when quickening 3f out, writes Stephen Hindle.

    In 2011, The Betchworth Kid failed to win subsequently after taking Nottingham's 1m6f contest, but this year's renewal looks stronger with some proven Group horses in behind the winner.

    Electrolyser himself has run well in Group races in the past, having finished second in the 2010 Goodwood Cup, and he appears to have run to his 109 rating considering he finished two lengths to the good over Zuider Zee, who obtained his mark of 105 when winning the November Handicap and confirmed it with a third in listed company in France on his final start in 2011.

    Fifth-placed Solar Sky, sixth-placed Eternal Heart and the seventh, Parlour Games, all seem to have run close to form and help give the race a solid enough look. Dandino was a bit below his 112 rating in third and may prove best back at shorter, whilst Blue Bajan also ran below par in fourth butconsidering neither had run for at least seven months they ran respectably. Nevertheless, I moved them to 110 and 109 respectively.

    Time will tell if Electrolyser can better The Betchworth Kid in winning another race this season, but it's fair to say he's worthy of his 6lb rise and he should be up to making an impact in a similar or higher grade, particularly when able to dominate.

    NURSERY NEWS

    How horses qualify fornursery handicaps is something we have tried to make simpler and fairer over the years, writes Matthew Tester.

    All sorts of restrictions have been taken away and we have now taken another step along that path, which trainers ought to be aware of.

    The key change is help for once-raced winners. As from this year, they may be able to go straight for nurseries which had previously not been open to them.

    The rules now state that we can let into nurseries any once-raced winner rated 80 or below and any twice-raced winner rated 85 or below. This is always as long as we feel there is enough evidence on which to make those judgements. As before, only form shown in this country countsfor qualification purposes although overseas runs will always be assessed.

    We hope that this will help trainers whose horses win on their debut and for whom it has been tough to find a race where the horse can run competitively next time.

    Readers can check out new rule 32.2 here.

    This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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