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Thread: The thoughts of the handicappers.

  1. #641
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    Looked like the winner in his first race in which I was on, but he died on finish. His runs have been too bad to be true for me, so crossed my mind if this was the target. Cheers, I’ll take some 33s now whilst it’s still around.

  2. #642
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    There isn't one, which is spectacularly helpful. Tizz is targeting one at Exeter for Kilbricken Storm.

  3. #643
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Kilbricken Storm looks gone to me.

  4. #644
    Senior Member Bonjers's Avatar
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    Just checked last year and there was Musselburgh, Exeter, Haydock, Punchestown and Chepstow after last week's Huntingdon qualifier.

  5. #645
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    Kilbricken Storm looks gone to me.
    As did I. But I urge you to watch his run bsck on the 13th December at Cheltenham. Travelled like the winner and went odds against in running before dieing on the run in.

    There is still a horse in there

  6. #646
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Yeah possibly DJ, but looking through his form he needs it to be heavy to show anything.

  7. #647
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    Or be ridiculously well handicapped Darren. I'm not sure I agree with that anyway. He's only run on good or good to soft four times. In those races he's run well three times and flopped once. The one time he flopped was in the middle of a run of races where he was clearly out of sorts because something was bothering him, probably his wind.

    In my opinion they delayed the op as part of a strategy to get his mark to something that can win them a couple of big handicap pots, including one at the Festival. An op at the start of the season and three or four quiet runs so he peaks with the right rating at the Festivals, without getting the handicapper too interested beforehand. They know at his best he'd be a mid 150's horse with nowhere to go. Essentially just below what it takes to win an open Grade 1. Also add to that he clearly doesn't like fences, so it makes sense to get him well handicapped as the only viable alternative. In fact I'd say off 141 he's potentially fantastically handicapped. The alternative is run him on his merits and have an 8/9 year old with nowhere to go other than a day out for the owners.

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  9. #648
    Senior Member tiggers1972's Avatar
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    Each to their own Paul, he's not for me.

  10. #649
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    Hello Miss Thicky here, what is a limited handicap please?
    Vote Alfie!!!!

  11. #650
    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    A handicap would usually be 10st to 12st. A limited handicap is something like 11st to 12st.*

    *All figures approximate.

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  13. #651
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I got a text from the brother earlier today suggesting I check out an article in the RP.

    He summarised it along the lines of "you should rate races as low as you can".

    I don't know where to start...
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  14. #652
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simmo View Post
    A handicap would usually be 10st to 12st. A limited handicap is something like 11st to 12st.*

    *All figures approximate.

    Thank you muchly.
    Vote Alfie!!!!

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Annie Mc (+3) 145
    Buzz (new) 139
    Chantry House (new) 140
    Clondaw Castle (+6) 149
    McFabulous (new) 132
    On The Slopes (+7) 136 *
    Perfect Harmony (+7) 129
    Pic d’Orhy (+8) 152
    Rouge Vif (+7) 157
    Shishkin (new) 153

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  17. #654
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Cheers, DG.

    Did you happen to notice the weekly blog explaining their thinking? I couldn't see it earlier.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  18. #655
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    Kim Bailey and ante post backers of Imperial Aura will be relieved.

    The BHA could conceivably have put Imperial Aura (and Simply the Betts) up based on the 7lb rise they gave On The Slopes for winning at the back end of last week. In the case of the former that would likely have ruled him out of the novice handicap.
    Alcohol, because no good story ever started with "I was eating this salad..."

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  20. #656
    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    On The Slopes (+7) 136 *
    What's the asterisk for On the Slopes?
    Was hoping he'd get a couple more lbs, as I'd quite like his chances in the Grand Annual off bottom weight.

    Unlikely he'll get in off 136, isn't it?

  21. #657
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    What's the asterisk for On the Slopes?
    Sorry was going to add a note at the bottom saying Imperial Aura unchanged but forgot.

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  23. #658
    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Copperhead +10 (155)
    Welsh Saint +4 (138)
    Silva Eclipse +2 (130)
    Kilbricken Storm -2 (140)
    Ramses De Teillee +3 (152)
    Greaneteen +3 (150)
    Senior Citizen +9 (134)
    Caltex +9 (127)
    First Flow +7 (148)
    Last edited by Diamond Geezer; 18th February 2020 at 9:15 AM.

  24. #659
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    https://www.britishhorseracing.com/h...t-and-haydock/

    Lord Du Mesnil also 6lbs well in for the National. Another longshot worth having onside at 50/1 NRNB. And a very fluent jumper to boot.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  25. #660
    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Yeah, was impressed. Powers let me have £2.50ew. Nice of them.

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