Thank you - it was a long drive back! I have been really lucky with one of the owners who had him at her place from the start as she has always allowed me to go and see him when I could. She really has been kind.Originally Posted by Tout Seul
I've had a message this morning to say he is absolutely fine
Was that the mare at Jim Old's, think I still have the pictures I took of her somewhere, did I ever send a copy of them to you ?
Thank you so much. His mother was just so special to me - it's a long story which I won't........ I still get upset about her not being here now. He's doing her proud.
Thank you. Really appreciate all the kindness very everyone.
Yes - I have them thanks
Diamond Geezer (20th February 2019)
If the handicappers take any notice of the comments from Racing UK coverage yesterday he won't be put up at all!!! "Coolanly obviously way below par, probably had a flu injection and that has affected him but we don't know that for certain , but must be a reason why he ran so badly and was beaten by poor opposition..........."
Poor opposition !!!!! Fools! Little do they realise that Coolanly was floored by a future Champion. In time they'll look back and say Coolanly only got so close to Munro because he got first run on him he was certainly flattered by his proximity to the winner.
Last edited by Danny; 20th February 2019 at 10:12 PM.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
Are you puddled again Danny?
Guilty as charged
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
Handicap movers this week
Fusil Raffles new 147
Dickie Diver new 143
Epatante new 143
Le Reve + 5 (130)
Capitaine + 6 (137)
Clondaw Castle + 10 (144)
Printing Dollars + 11 (128)
Flemcara + 4 (137)
Samburu Shujaa + 7 (136)
Eamon An Cnoic + 7 (137)
Erick Le Rouge + 3 (137)
Walt + 7 (141)
Another Crick + 12 (136)
Desert Orchid (26th February 2019)
Only gone up 3........Hoping it's not Ayr on Saturday as logistically can get there but the credit card won't like it.
Vote Alfie!!!!
The Cheltenham Festival | BHA Handicappers Blog
19 Mar 19
Photo Finish
Al Boum Photo provided training legend Willie Mullins with almost the final piece in his Cheltenham Festival jigsaw when scoring in the Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup, writes Martin Greenwood.
The 2019 renewal looked particularly interesting with almost all of the field seemingly having some sort of chance going in. They didn’t hang about either and jumping errors soon put paid to several chances early on. Native River (who looks as though he needs a thorough test nowadays) and Might Bite (stopped quickly as though amiss again) set the fractions and they were joined by the strong-travelling trio of Al Boum Photo, Clan des Obeaux and Bristol de Mai as they approached the business end of the race.
Al Boum Photo kicked on turning for home and outstayed both Clan des Obeaux and Bristol de Mai to score by two and a half lengths from the staying-on Anibale Fly, possibly dossing a little in front. This was clearly a personal best for Al Boum Photo who is a very unexposed stayer and I would suggest there is more to come from him. His new figure of 176 is a few pounds higher than race standards suggest and is at least comparable to the winning performances of both Don Cossack and Native River in recent years. It is also more in line with the time figure compared to the later Foxhunters.
Anibale Fly also posted his best ever performance and 172 betters his third in the same race twelve months previously. He will be 8 lb ‘well in’ should he take in the Grand National again (fourth last year) and shapes as though he needs an out and out test. Bristol de Mai will also be 4 lb in front if he also takes up the National challenge and he shaped as though confirming all of his ability from the Betfair Chase while seeming to not quite get home. That comment also applies to Clan des Obeaux, who you would imagine will always be ideally suited by a flatter track. That pair are both now 172. Favourite without jumping a fence in public this season, Presenting Percy was never involved and came back lame.
While several of those horses already discussed will undoubtedly be back in the 2020 Gold Cup, three horses who will probably also be lining up if their campaigns go to plan are the trio who pulled clear in the RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase.
Presenting Percy won a good renewal in 2018 and this year’s race also has a strong look to it. The market and pre-race ratings suggested it was probably between Delta Work, Santini and Topofthegame and so it proved, with the last-named always holding the rallying Santini after a fine waiting ride from Harry Cobden, who seemed to have learnt a lesson from the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day and delayed his challenge a little. The strong-travelling Topofthegame is a fine stamp of a horse and surely has the look of a serious Gold Cup challenger. That’s not to say that Santini (a real stayer by the look of things) and Delta Work (who faded late) aren’t also going to be major players next season. Ratings wise this looks above the average and 163, 161 and 159 for the trio almost certainly underestimates their potential.
Back to the Grand National, as well as Anibale Fly and Bristol de Mai, several others produced good performances at Cheltenham that would seem to enhance their prospects for the big day.
Reigning champ Tiger Roll remarkably looks an even better horse this year, sluicing in over hurdles at Navan and then barely coming off the bridle in the Cross Country. I have increased his rating to 167 but that could be higher if anything and makes him 8 lb ‘well in’ for the National, the same as Anibale Fly and fellow Irish raider Rathvinden, the latter having landed the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last month. Others able to run off their original National weight but due a rise after last week are Vintage Clouds (+5) and Lake View Lad (+3), who both ran very encouraging races in the Ultima Handicap, while Ramses de Teillee is now 5lb higher after his second in the National Trial at Haydock in February. Add Ms Parfois (+7) into the mix after her excellent second in the Midlands National on Saturday and Pairofbrowneyes (+10 after winning the Leinster National), and the already hot race gets even hotter.
Apple’s Jaded
In all my years assessing the Unibet Champion Hurdle, there has not been a renewal as difficult to interpret as this year’s, writes David Dickinson…
A shock winner doesn’t necessarily lead to a problem in gauging a race level. A reasonable example of that came in the National Hunt Breeders Supported By Tattersalls Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle later at the meeting which was fought out by outsiders from the Mullins and Elliott yards. There were one or two below par efforts but also enough solid form to enable me to put a figure of 140 on the winner Eglantine du Seuil with a reasonable amount of confidence.
Not so the Champion Hurdle. Melon’s endeavours to force the pace didn’t do him any favours but it appeared to ruin any chance Apple’s Jade might have had. My stopwatch suggests that between flights two and three the field went roughly eleven lengths faster than the field in the Supreme; looking back to last year, they were five lengths faster than for Buveur d’Air’s second Champion success. And what happened at flight three? The dual champion came to grief. And so the stage was set for Laurina but, as I blogged at this time last year, I doubted she was purely a two mile horse – and she had tried to go with the pace.
The relative times in the closing stages also tell their tale. In 2018 the Champion Hurdle was two lengths faster from the third last then the Supreme, this year it was nine lengths slower. And which horses ran their races on the day? Espoir d’Allen and the talented former handicapper Silver Streak, though the latter made a mistake.
My race standards and the official winning margin both suggest that Espoir d’Allen is the best Champion Hurdle winner ever. He was very good but I have massive doubts that a strict interpretation of the finishing positions and relative margins of all the runners is the way to assess what happened. For the moment, I have put a ‘par rating’ of 170 on his performance. If I had used Silver Streak’s current mark to level the race I would be rating the winner around 172. That is the same as Buveur’ d’Air’s current mark and, no doubt, the word fudge would be used at some point. Hopefully the Aintree and Punchestown Festivals will give us more evidence to work with.
One thing that is not in doubt is the ability of the Sky bet Supreme winner Klassical Dream who has been a revelation this season. He proved his courage in Ireland last time out and at Cheltenham he proved his brilliance. In rating him 157 I have put him right on the heels of what the likes of Altior, Douvan and Vautour achieved in winning this race.
The complete tragedy that befell the Irish star Sir Erec marred the Triumph Hurdle but the fact remains that Nicky Henderson, once again, managed to unearth a very fine performer after just one impressive win at a minor track. Pentland Hills rating of 153 is within a pound of the recent average for the race.
Record-equalling success for Altior
Altior matched Big Buck’s record of eighteen consecutive jumps wins but was made to work harder than might have been expected in the feature race on day two. Chris Nash explains….
The Grade 1 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase featured the shortest priced favourite of the meeting in the shape of 4/11-shot Altior. He got the job done but it was a long way from being the stroll in the park that his odds suggested that it would be. Altior went to the front after jumping three out but plenty were still on his tail turning for home and he had to dig very deep to hold them off. He eventually passed the post one and three quarter lengths clear of Politologue with the same distance back to Sceau Royal in third. Although not wildly impressive, Altior showed real determination under pressure to keep his unbeaten record over obstacles intact.
He arrived here with a rating of 175 and there had been plenty of comment, and even some eyebrows raised, when Cyrname had been rated above him (at 178) after winning the Ascot Chase last month. The bare form of the Champion Chase is a long way from being able to justify any increase in the rating of Altior. The figures given to the last ten winners of this race range from 167 to 186 and average out at 174. Applying race standards has Altior running a figure in the range of 167 to 169. I have attached a figure of 168+ to his performance which has Politologue running to his pre-race rating of 166, Sceau Royal running a career best of 164 and Hell’s Kitchen also recording a marginal career best of 158 in finishing fourth. If anything, the form of Cyrname probably took a boost here via the performance of Politologue who had finished over 20 lengths behind him at level weights at Ascot.
The novices got their chance over the 2m trip in the Grade 1 Racing Post Arkle Trophy on day one, and the first three home were all Irish trained. We got a wide margin winner in the shape of Duc Des Genievres who passed the post thirteen lengths clear of Us And Them, with a further three and three quarter lengths back to Articulum in third. There were a few thrills and spills in the race and the failure of some fancied horses to get round probably leaves some question marks over the form. That said, the winner was undeniably impressive – he led going best three out and only needed hands and heels riding up the straight.
The figures given to the last ten winners of this race range from 158 to 169 and average out at 162. Applying race standards to this contest has the winner running a figure between 163 and 167 and I settled on the lower end of this range. That still has Duc Des Genievres recording a big career best of 163, Us And Them running very close to his recent figures in Ireland at 150 and Articulum running a marginal career best at 146. The three highest rated British runners in the race all failed to get round, so Lalor (151), Glen Forsa (150) and Kalashnikov (148) will retain their pre-race ratings. That was a frustrating outcome from a handicapping point of view as this race usually provides an opportunity to assess the relative merits of the British and Irish trained novices but we were largely denied that chance.
Paisley Perfection
Paisley Park may not have needed to improve his form any further to land the Stayers’ Hurdle but he certainly enhanced his standing with a clear-cut success in the showpiece race in the division. Andrew Mealor assesses the performance…
Unbeaten in four races previously the season, Paisley Park came into the race with a lofty figure of 168 gained when running out a twelve-length winner of the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham’s Trials Meeting in January. Such a rating already marked him out as good enough to win a Stayers’ Hurdle – the average winning rating for the previous five renewals was 167 – and he didn’t let his supporters down.
Impressions on the day that the Stayers’ Hurdle was run at a flat-out gallop aren’t quite borne out by the evidence of the clock – the field reached the sixth hurdle (around halfway) over a second slower than they did in the Pertemps Final over the same trip 80 minutes earlier and the overall time comes out roughly similar – though the race still provided a fair enough test and certainly wasn’t a repeat of the tactical 2017 renewal.
Stamina is clearly Paisley Park’s strong suit, and having hit his customary flat spot down the hill he powered to the front between the last two flights and likely would have won by a bit further but for making a mistake at the last.
Runner-up Sam Spinner has been quiet since his success in last season’s Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot, but he was rated 164 after that win and looks to have got back to that level here under an aggressive ride. His returning to form ties in nicely with Paisley Park more or less repeating the level he had achieved in the Cleeve (168+), and sits just above the level suggested by historical standards.
Festival stalwart Faugheen was rated 169 in last season’s Anglo-Irish classification after his win over three miles at Punchestown. Eleven years old now, he couldn’t quite repeat those heroics but this was a perfectly good run all things considered (161), especially as he was coming in off a heavy fall on his previous start in December. He just held off stablemate Bapaume (160) who made up plenty of ground from rear and looks to have produced a career best.
A figure of 168 puts Paisley Park a bit behind the best recent winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle, Thistlecrack and Big Buck’s both having reached a peak of 174, but he’s got time on his side as a seven-year-old and may well have a bigger performance in him given his rate of progress so far.
Both of the Festival novice events for the younger stayers over hurdles looked well up to scratch.
Favourite Battleoverdoyen (reported as never travelling by his jockey) may have disappointed in the Ballymore Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle but we still got a good finish courtesy of City Island and Champ, the former coming out on top by two lengths.
A figure in the mid-to-low 150s is customary for a Ballymore winner, and with Champ coming in at 152 after wins in a well-contested handicap and the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, it seems logical to place the unbeaten City Island at the upper end of that range (154). They both look good prospects going forward. There was also plenty of promise from Bright Forecast (149) and Brewin’upastorm (148) who finished well clear of the rest in filling the places, the former in particular who improved markedly on his previous form up in trip and came home well after a patient ride.
Following the 33/1 success of Kilbricken Storm last season, the Albert Bartlett Spa Novices’ Hurdle again produced a shock winner in 50/1-outsider Minella Indo. He’d been placed on his two previous runs at home in Ireland, but the latter of those was a second in a Grade 3 (behind Albert Bartlett third Allaho) and he produced another big chunk of improvement in beating fellow Irish contender (and Grade 1 winner) Commander of Fleet by two lengths, the win all the more impressive given he didn’t really settle for much of the race.
That pair finished clear of a couple who had already produced ratings in the 140s and the first two have both been credited with 150+ performances, Minella Indo sitting just behind the Ballymore winner on 153. Historical standards for the race also provide further confidence in that sort of level.
The level of the novice events in particular could well be influenced by events at Aintree and Punchestown, and the final ratings will be ratified in the end-of-season Anglo-Irish Classification.
Ryanair joy for Frodon
A thrilling renewal of the Ryanair Chase saw a game front-running Frodon come out on top after a brilliant round of jumping, writes Michael Harris
The Ryanair looked very competitive beforehand and Frodon was top-rated going into the race on 169, having achieved that figure when winning a handicap at Cheltenham in December. With plenty of possible pace angles in the field a strong gallop could have been expected, but with Un de Sceaux and Monalee happy to track the leaders on this occasion, Frodon was able to control the race from the front. His jumping under pressure is a real asset, and with stamina assured he battled on strongly all the way up the hill.
Historically, the last ten winner’s average out at 169 and I am happy that Frodon has replicated his 169 here – he remains second only to stablemate Cyrname in the 2m4f Anglo-Irish rankings so far this season. Aso (+6 to 168), another Cheltenham handicap winner this season and last seen when behind the aforementioned Cyrname at Ascot, bettered his third place finish in this race two years ago and produced a career best despite not being able to dominate, tactics which had seen him to best effect previously. Road to Respect travelled well dropped back in trip but a mistake three out cost him momentum at a crucial stage of the race and he ran a little below his best at 166.
In the novice division, The JLT saw two old rivals fight out a great finish in what developed into a tactical affair. Only 3 lb covered the principles pre-race in what looked an open renewal and Lostintranslation was able to dictate from the front with a good round of jumping. The field was still well bunched three out before the sprint for home began and Defi du Seuil had the best turn of foot, confirming his superiority with Lostintranslation from their meeting in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles at Sandown in February.
Vautour produced an outstanding performance in landing this in 2015 (171) but the other winners of the race have ranged from 157 to 162, with an eight-year average of 161. Pre-race standards suggested a mark of around 160 and I have settled on 159 for Defi Du Seuil (+8 from 151), which is the same rating Yorkhill and Taquin du Seuil were given after winning this in recent years. Shattered Love, factoring in her mares’ allowance, was 1lb higher at 160 last year.
Lostintranslation (+7 to 157) lost little in defeat and he should show further improvement once his stamina is drawn out. Mengli Khan (151) finished third for the second successive festival and a drop back to 2 miles looks the way forward for him having not quite seen his race out.
The best novice performance in the 2m4f division, however, came in the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap, with A Plus Tard running out an extremely impressive winner of what had looked a wide-open handicap. He ran off a mark of 144 which is the highest rating won off in this race since its inception in 2005. Only a five-year-old, A Plus Tard travelled easily throughout before sprinting clear up the straight. I have him performing to 163, 4 lb ahead of Defi du Seuil. That makes him the joint-leading novice so far this season, alongside RSA chase winner Topofthegame and Arkle winner Duc Des Genievres.
Two from Aintree...
2019 Aintree Grand National Festival | Handicappers Blog
09 Apr 19
That’s My Boy
Willie Mullins has quickly cornered the 2018/19 staying chase division in under a month, writes Martin Greenwood…
While King George winner Clan des Obeaux and Betfair Chase winner Bristol de Mai have performed with credit in both the Gold Cup and the Betway Bowl, neither have been able to stop first Al Boum Photo and then Kemboy reaching the top of the tree.
Like Al Boum Photo, Kemboy came into the Betway Bowl with an unexposed look to him and unsurprisingly went off favourite to put his early tumble in the Gold Cup behind him. Those market signals proved correct in no uncertain fashion with Kemboy tanking along throughout while setting what appeared to be just a sensible pace. With the exception of the amiss-looking Elegant Escape, they were still well bunched turning in. That didn’t last for long, however, and when asked to assert Kemboy did so in devastating fashion, leaving his toiling rivals fighting it out for minor honours after Balko des Flos made a last-fence howler.
LostInTranslation and Robbie Power
With the horses behind making some sense – if you accept Balko des Flos coming right back to his very best form – then Kemboy looks an above-standard winner. Cue Card achieved a figure of 176 when winning this race back in 2016 and Kemboy has been credited with a similar performance. Both Bristol de Mai and Clan des Obeaux have had their ratings slightly lowered again and they are both now 171.
The following day it was the turn of the staying novices. The Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase seemed an ideal opportunity for Topofthegame to confirm his performance in the RSA and he was duly sent off odds on. However, he left the impression that Cheltenham had left its mark as he put in some sketchy jumps and never seemed to be travelling smoothly on the second circuit, merely plugging on to overhaul pacesetter Top Ville Ben close home but no match for the impressive Lostintranslation. The latter was second best on ratings going in following his second in the JLT at the Festival and he relished his first try over 3m, scoring impressively after taking over the lead in the home straight.
Given the proximity of both Top Ville Ben and Mr Whipped, it is hard to push up Lostintranslation’s rating simply on the bare form, but allowing for the style in which he scored he will be in the low 160s and above a standard winner of this race. Both he and Topofthegame should play their part in next season’s leading staying events.
Melling glory for MinFriday’s JLT Melling Chase looked a competitive renewal beforehand with just 3 lb separating the three highest-rated horses in the race. In event, however, Min trounced his five rivals. Michael Harris assesses the performance…
Min and Ruby Walsh
Politologue and Min had fought out a close finish in the same race twelve months earlier but on this occasion Min producing a scintillating front-running display. Although keen in the early stages, he travelled strongly throughout and eased to a twenty-length success. His best effort previously this season had also come over 20f (when winning at Punchestown) and it certainly appears that this trip is now his optimum.
Historically, the last ten winners average out at 171 and pre-race standards suggest a rating in the mid-170s for Min, which makes this a clear career best. I have settled on a figure of 173, although as with all of our ratings they will be discussed and finalised in the end of season Anglo-Irish classifications.
The performance leaves a similar impression to that created by Cyrname when he won the Ascot Chase by a wide margin back in February. With both Aso and Politologue running well at Cheltenham, that form appeared to have been given a boost, however Waiting Patiently did little for it with a distant third in the Melling. It is a race I will keep an eye on going forward. Min’s performance here arguably pays a handsome compliment to Altior, who has beaten Min on all three occasions he has faced him.
In the novice division, Kalashnikov ran out a game winner on his first run over 20f in the Devenish Manifesto Grade 1. He had been shaping as though a step up in trip would suit and it certainly appears that his future lies over this trip.
The recent average for a Manifesto winner has been 158. Kalashnikov is a bit below that at 155 but is still 1 lb higher than 2018 winner Finian’s Oscar. Mengli Khan ran a fine race in defeat and is another to advertise the strength of the JLT Chase form – Lostintranslation and Kildisart both won at Aintree and in light of all those performances I have collaterally raised the level of the JLT, with Defi du Seuil now rated 162 (from 159).
Ornua strikes gold in the Maghull
The Grade 1 Doom Bar Maghull Novice’ Chase, the feature chase run over 2m during the Aintree festival, perhaps lacked a star contender but it looked a very open race and duly resulted in a close finish, writes Chris Nash…
Irish-trained runners finished first and second with Ornua beating Us And Them by one and three quarter lengths, with a further one and a quarter lengths back to Destrier in third. The last ten winners of this race range from 155 to 169 and average out at 161. Applying race standards to the result suggests the winner would have run a figure in the region of 157–159. Given my doubts about the overall strength of the race, I opted for the bottom end of that range, though even that interpretation still has the first three home all running career best figures – 157 for Ornua, 155 for Us And Them and 153 for Destrier.
Whilst the form of this renewal is nothing out of the ordinary, it has led to upgrades for some other 2m novice chasers. The Arkle form was boosted by Us And Them (2nd) amongst others, and the winner of that race, Duc De Genievres, has been raised to a figure of 164. He remains the highest rated 2m novice of the season so far.
The second highest-rated novice at the distance is Le Richebourg. He’s beaten Us And Them twice in Grade 1 races in Ireland this season and has been raised to 159. A setback meant that he wasn’t able to run at either Cheltenham or Aintree. The performances of Ornua and Kalshnikov also give a boost to the form of Dynamite Dollars who has been raised to a figure of 157. He was another who had to miss both Cheltenham and Aintree but his form from earlier in the campaign now has a very solid look to it and he remains a promising horse for next season.
If The Cap Fits edges Liverpool Hurdle thriller
Andrew Mealor assesses the two Grade 1 races in the staying hurdle division…
The Ryanair Stayers Liverpool Hurdle on Saturday provided a cracking three-way finish, with little more than a neck separating If The Cap Fits and the mares Roksana and Apple’s Jade at the line, though from a handicapper’s viewpoint it’s somewhat ironic that the best finish of the meeting came in a non-handicap!
With Paisley Park absent and Sam Spinner clearly not at his best, it arguably wasn’t the strongest of renewals in terms of top-level stayers. Apple’s Jade – in receipt of 7 lb from the males in the field – stood out on form beforehand, and it’s likely that she was a fair way off her best form for all she went so close. She jumped right at several flights but kept responding and was edged out only close home.
Historical race standards point to a figure in the mid-160s for the winner, though pre-race standards (which looks at the levels of the principals beforehand) suggests lower, as does the proximity of outsider Lord Napier in fifth, the latter having achieved a peak figure of 145 when winning a well-contested handicap at Sandown two starts back. As such, I settled on a figure of 160 for If The Cap Fits, which is still a big improvement on his pre-race 152 and very close to what the previous two winners of the race achieved. He did very well to prevail in truth having made a bad blunder at the last and then had to squeeze through a narrow gap to lead in the final strides, and some extra credit has been incorporated into that figure.
Roksana (up 3 lb to 151) has also run a career best, and her effort paid a clear compliment to Benie Des Dieux who would have beaten her comfortably in the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham but for falling at the last.
If The Cap Fits still has a fair bit of ground to make up on division leader Paisley Park (168), though the fact this was his first run at 3m added to the impression that he did well to win as the race went, suggests he may have more to offer as a stayer next season.
The Doom Bar Sefton for the 3m novices was a bit easier to assess and favourite Champ (152) didn’t need to improve on his previous best form to prevail. In a race that was steadily run and tested speed as much as stamina, Champ settled surprisingly well up in trip and proved too quick for his rivals having travelled strongly to the last. Runner-up Emitom (up 3 lb to 147) enhanced his reputation up in grade by staying on to finish seven lengths clear of the rest, and he’s another whose best days look ahead of him.
Felix bounces back
Felix Desjy was a fine winner of Aintree’s Grade 1 Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle, leaving his Cheltenham run well behind him, writes David Dickinson.
Felix Desjy came into Cheltenham off the back of an impressive all-the-way success in Punchestown’s Grade 2 Moscow Flyer hurdle but things went wrong in the Supreme. As he lined up at the front of the pack, the eventual winner of that race, Klassical Dreams, charged the tape causing a false start. From the ensuing standing start, Felix Desjy was very slow into his stride. In the circumstances, a fifth place finish after being almost last over the first hurdle was a decent effort.
With a hood reapplied and back to his front running best on Friday, he led the field a merry dance despite a significant blunder at flight four, the first in the back straight. A rating of 154 puts him still behind Klassical Dreams but in front of the rest of last month’s Cheltenham opponents, including the third that day Itchy Feet, who never looked happy in this race and eventually finished fourth.
Cheltenham Grade 1 form was franked in the juvenile race, the Grade 1 Doom Bar Anniversary Hurdle, where Triumph Hurdle winner Pentland Hills confirmed his status as best of the four-year-old crop. Impressive Fred Winter winner Band of Outlaws started favourite but was found out by the wet and windy conditions. My take on his run was that the extra 20 seconds the Aintree race took in comparison to Cheltenham made this more of a stamina test than Band of Outlaws would want. His best flat form came over seven furlongs and a mile.
As Fakir d’Oudairies got so close to Pentland Hills, having been beaten 11 lengths in the Supreme at Cheltenham, it does temper enthusiasm for the four-year-olds going forward. They look an able (juvenile Chief Justice took the meeting’s closing handicap) but unexceptional bunch. Given the tragedy that befell Sir Erec in the Triumph, chances are their star performer was lost.
Danny (21st April 2019)
The 2019 Randox Health Grand National
09 Apr 19
DRUM ROLL…..
History was made at Aintree on Saturday when Tiger Roll became the first horse since the legendary Red Rum to win back to back Grand Nationals, writes Martin Greenwood. In doing so he has, in my view, put up the best winning performance in the last 46 years, since reliable handicapping figures became available.
One of a host of runners representing Gordon Elliot, Tiger Roll was 9lbs higher than when scoring off 150 in 2018 but was 8lb ‘well in’ following his runaway success in last month’s Glanfarclas Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham.
Sent off one of the shortest favourites in history of the race, there was hardly any moment in the race in which he didn’t look likely to justifying that support, maybe the stumble he made at the fourth last notwithstanding. Tanking throughout, he was still hard held jumping the last and only came under some sort of ride passing the elbow. His winning distance bore no relation to his superiority in my opinion and the extra 8lbs he was due to carry would not have stopped him.
I personally can’t remember a horse going as well as that for so long after decades of watching the National. At the finish, five lengths covered the first three home and both Magic of Light (a personal best) and Rathvinden (also due to be 8lbs higher following his win in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse) ran magnificent races especially given they both made numerous bad mistakes.
This trio finished clear of the nearest GB challenger Walk in the Mill with last year’s fourth Anibale Fly (another 8lb well in following his excellent run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup) just behind in fifth.
Using what I knew about the form since the weights closed back in February then the logical way to look at this race would be to take a positive view of the front three. Despite not quite having Rathvinden running to his new mark of 162, Magic of Light is now 159 (from the 151 she ran off) and is clearly a very talented mare, while the mighty Tiger is now 172, which only allows 2lb for the ‘style’ of his victory given his bare form suggests 170. This figure would have him second in this season’s Gold Cup and Betway Bowl.
I must stress, I think 172 could still underestimate him and ever since he reappeared in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan in February (a clear personal best in that discipline), Tiger Roll has looked a different horse which is remarkable given he has been on the go since 2013 and is great testament to his trainer.
After thorough research which has involved help from the Racing Post’s John Randall, my predecessor Phil Smith and my former Timeform colleagues Dave Cleary and Dave Yates…many thanks to all….I wanted to get some sort of order of the very best Grand National performances. Given Timeform didn’t start keeping regular jump ratings until around Red Rum’s first National win in 1973, and official ratings didn’t exist as they do today, I feel 1973 onwards is an ideal date to start. Anything else prior to that is going to be very difficult to compare. I am suggesting that Tiger Roll has put up the best winning performance in any National from 1973 to present, beating Many Clouds (167) in 2015 and Neptune Collonges (168) in 2012. It also trumps Suny Bay’s second (beaten 11 lengths by Earth Summit, conceding him 23lb) off an official 170 in 1998. Using a Timeform-based assessment of the 1970’s it would suggest Red Rum was never higher than 166, L’Escargot 161 when winning his National, while Crisp was rated 173 when a gallant second in 1973.
None of this should detract from any of the excellent performances over the last 46 years and the legendary status of the likes of Red Rum, L’Escargot and others should quite rightly be kept, but simply on ability based on handicapping I suggest that Tiger Roll heads the pecking order and is also in the same ballpark as Crisp, who let’s not forget gave 23 lbs to Red Rum.
Danny (21st April 2019), Desert Orchid (11th April 2019)
Utter pish. Either that or he hasn't started shaving yet.
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 11th April 2019 at 1:03 PM.
Illegitimi non carborundum
https://www.racingpost.com/results/3...92-04-04/45936
Carvill's Hill beat PP by 20L giving him 19 lbs in the Welsh Nash.
Well gone up another 7 without even running. Miss Thicky here again but I think that shouldn't be allowed. They thought the win was only worth an increase of 3, then the horse he beat runs 5th at Cheltenham, so he goes up another 7. No wait that can't be right - you thought his win wasn't that good on that day, so that's that surely?Only gone up 3........Hoping it's not Ayr on Saturday as logistically can get there but the credit card won't like it.
He has a 5 day for Perth on Wednesday - really hoping it's like a road up there and he doesn't run because HE WILL NEVER STAY 3 MILES!!! Are you MAD???? Never in a million years. Never, never, never, EVVVERR!!
Vote Alfie!!!!
I did warn you GG that win could be taken very harshly indeed on ratings and the Handicapper was surprisingly lenient on your fella to begin with. Its not just coolany running well at Chelters that got your boy bumped up. The third has won two hurdle races since and is now rated 135 and the 4th has also come out and won his only hurdle race since and they've been beaten by your fella by nearly 8 and 12 lengths respectively so according to that race you've beaten a 142 rated horse who without Garrity's claim you'd only be recieving 6lb if they met again in a Handicap even though Coolany has had his mark lowered you'd still meet on 5lb better terms than what you've already beaten him off. There is a horse 8 lengths back who's now rated 135 who without jockey claims, you were on level weights with. In other words even now your boy has been put up 10lb in total if he met theatre legend again he'd be 8lb better off having beaten him 8 lengths last time they met. The 4th place horse is now rated 125 who again without claims he faced at level weights and he'd only have to give him 4lb for a 12 length beating if they met again.Well gone up another 7 without even running. Miss Thicky here again but I think that shouldn't be allowed. They thought the win was only worth an increase of 3, then the horse he beat runs 5th at Cheltenham, so he goes up another 7. No wait that can't be right - you thought his win wasn't that good on that day, so that's that surely?
!
So although initially it may feel like a bit of a kick in the lady parts GG your baby has still been treated fairly well overall and the upside is if how the form has worked out is correct little Munro might have another few good days ahead of him.
Best of luck GG.
2020 Champion hurdle dream lives on
Last edited by Danny; 21st April 2019 at 10:02 PM.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
Desert Orchid (21st April 2019), G-G (22nd April 2019)
Wow Danny!!
This is all a bit scary, 'cos no matter how much I love him, can't still believe he has done what he has so far, and could he really be this decent? Okay not Superstar status obviously, except to me, but the fact he has done so well already is just stunning.
This sort of analysis is what I really admire as apart from I don't have time to do it, aside from looking after his muppet brother, currently nursing a swollen knee...one vet says do this....another vet says no don't do that - but Brodie still running round the field as if he was in a 2m 3 at Cheltenham, not helping - it's a constantly shifting picture and keeping up with it all.
A friend who understands this thought the small initial rise was because of the horse in 3rd, but as you say, now BBB has been put up because he has come out and won.
I would hold your bets for next year!! Not sure they will stay hurdling - he's very tall and not the greatest hurdler, costs himself ground by landing on four feet a couple of times during a race - last fence at Wetherby last time case in point, didn't get a good jump but had enough left. Every one says he is very willing. Just wish he would not get so fizzy at the start and drop his head a bit and the hood not helping I think. Has a 2m 4f at Perth for Friday, I would think that's more him right now but will depend on the ground.
Just a by the way, they call him Basil - obvious reasons - but he will always be Rowley to me
Vote Alfie!!!!
Danny (22nd April 2019)
Apologies - but everyone please keep your fingers crossed for a safe trip above anything else , as would really helped if it p**d down all night at least and hope they let their heads rule their hearts if it doesn't - for tomorrow at Perth. Really upset that can't be there, but just hope he comes home safe. Will be fretting and screaming head off in a bookies.
Last edited by G-G; 25th April 2019 at 8:51 PM.
Vote Alfie!!!!
Danny (25th April 2019)
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