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Thread: The thoughts of the handicappers.

  1. #421
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Meant to say...

    For comparative purposes, these are the OR, RPR and my own (DO) figures for Native River's two wins and BDM (which I haven't finalised yet):

    Hennessy: 155 / 168 / 171*
    Welsh Nash: 155 / 171 / 172*

    BDM: 154 / 173 / 176+p*

    (* I reduce this by 5lbs when moving into non-handicaps)
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 24th January 2017 at 4:54 PM.
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    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Phil Smith taking no chances with Elliott this year

    Diamond King @ 150
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    My brother was on the phone to tell me he was backing it for the Gold Cup (it was 40/1) and I talked him out of it. He's never forgiven me.
    I'm surprised you've still got fingers left to type with!

    Master Oats was given 183 in the 94/95 edition of Chasers & Hurdlers. Save you getting the Ramsay Ladder out.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    We laugh about it and exchange a bit of banter but I can tell it still hurts him!

    On the other side of the coin, I gave him Acatenango when it won one of the big races in America at triple-figure odds and forgot to back it myself! He reminds me of that regularly, the bastert.
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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    I don't think he needs a flat track and soft ground to be at or near his best, but I do think the combination of good ground and an undulating track are not ideal. So I wouldn't fancy him at all for Cheltenham given good ground but the Aintree Bowl would be ok.

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    Senior Member Perpetual's Avatar
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    A festival update...

    THE 2017 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL HANDICAPPERS BLOG / 22 MAR 17

    GRAND CANYON


    After a tepid first couple of days for the Mullins’ team they arrived with a bang on the Thursday with the undoubted highlight being Nichols Canyon’s success in the Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle, writes Martin Greenwood.

    Mostly unraced beyond 20f (a 3m race in the USA notwithstanding), Nichols Canyon relished the true stamina test set by previous winner Cole Harden (nearly back to very best on 161). He cut through the field to lead on the run in and deny the gallant Lil Rockerfeller with hot favourite Unowhatimeanharry, unbeaten for his new stable, in third.


    Whichever way you cut this particular cake, personal bests have surely been achieved by the first two here. Five-year standards suggest anything from low to high 160s while the time comparison with the Pertemps suggest a mighty 192. Settling on 169 and 168 for the first two we have performances on a level with More of That in 2014 which is the best since the Big Buck’s years other than Thistlecrack’s supreme effort last year.

    With Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown still to come, the picture could change again and Unowhatimeanharry is probably worth another chance to enhance his reputation. While only marginally below his pre-race rating of 167 here, he simply did not pick up in the usual manner after travelling into the race as well as any. Connections suggested the faster ground may have been a factor but he still looked a horse that was improving before the Festival and he has probably not flattened out just yet.

    Both the novice races in my division look up to standard. It was nearly a great start ratings-wise, a 1-2-3 was only narrowly denied probably, but not definitely, by Neon Wolf’s (pre-race 148) sprawl at the last. This allowed pacemaker Willoughby Court (147) to gain an advantage before nearly throwing that away by hanging across the track. It seems logical to rate the pair the same at this point and I have settled on 150 which is only slightly below the average and median suggested by 5yr standards.

    The time comparison with the Coral Cup only suggests 142; but that is surely down to the pace of this race. Messire des Obeaux (pre-race 146 and unchanged) ran a fine race in third especially given he did not get the same kind of smooth run through afforded to the first two. Another runner worth a mention is Keeper Hill who stayed on well after making a bad mid-race blunder.

    Almost certainly showing better form was Penhill, who won the three miler on the Friday. Unusually this race was not run at the normal suicidal gallop; but even so the extra stamina found out hot favourite Death Duty who was cooked well before he came down at the last. He probably deserves another chance.

    Penhill is now 153 with runner up Monalee also achieving a personal best on 149 which puts Penhill number two in the novice stayers list with only West Approach (surprisingly targeted to the Stayers hurdle) in front of him in the division. Constantine Bay shaped very well considering he was badly hampered when The Worlds End came down at the second last. The latter would almost certainly been involved in the finish had he stood up and looks to have a big future.

    SCEAUX TAKES WINGS FOR THE RYANAIR


    The Grade 1 Ryanair Chase was not a vintage renewal, writes Mark Olley, but it was hard not to be impressed by Un de Sceaux’s superb winning performance.

    Ruby Walsh freely admits that Un de Sceaux ran away with him to take up the running at the fifth but he jumped superbly and was dominant, much more so than the winning margin of one and a half lengths suggests. Going into the race there were questions regarding both trip and ground but Willie Mullins’ gelding answered them in style.

    Sub Lieutenant came into the race with an Anglo-Irish agreed provisional rating of 161 (a figure agreed with Irish handicapper Noel O’Brien at our meeting in February). However, his published handicap rating in Ireland is 162 and, as that fits with race standards, I am happy to have him running to that here.

    I have settled on a figure of 5lb for the winning margin of one and a half lengths. Un de Sceaux was around five lengths clear at the last and, although kept up to his work on the run-in, he was eased close home. As I mentioned previously I thought his performance was dominant and I am not certain 5lb is a true reflection of how superior he was; but it is hard to justify more. It is currently academic as his official Irish rating is higher and will be finalised at the end of term Anglo-Irish meeting in May.

    Aso ran the race of his life in third and his rating goes up from 152 to 156 while Empire of Dirt found everything happening a little too quickly for him and a return to 3m looks sure to suit.

    From an historical point of view four of the last five winners posted higher figures with last year’s winner Vautour the best on 173. Dynaste’s 164 in 2014 is the one that is lower.

    The Grade 1 JLT Golden Miller Novices’ Chase was a thriller and produced a potential star of the future in Yorkhill. He is far from a straightforward ride but this is the type of horse on which Ruby Walsh excels.

    Disko has an Anglo-Irish agreed rating of 154 and, as this fits in with race standards, I am happy to leave it unchanged. This ground was considerably faster than anything he has previously raced on but he appeared to handle it well enough.

    Top Notch ran an excellent race but a mistake at the second last may well have cost him his winning chance. He came into the fence disputing the lead but lost around two lengths and, despite staying on strongly up the run-in, never quite looked like getting to the winner. He lost more ground than he was eventually beaten; but I think Yorkhill idled and the result was a fair reflection. Top Notch was a 158 hurdler at best and I have moved his chase rating to that figure, up 6lb from 152.

    Yorkhill idled and I have him running to 160 but this figure has yet to be agreed with Irish handicapper Noel O’Brien so is open to change. Excluding Vautour’s stellar performance of 171 when winning in 2015 this is the next best performance of the last five years and eclipses the 159 figures of Black Hercules last year and Taquin du Seuil in 2014.

    TIARA LIFTS THE CROWN


    Douvan’s mishap meant it did not need a division-topping performance to lift the Betway Champion Chase but Special Tiara put up a fantastic one nevertheless as he made just about every yard, writes Graeme Smith.

    Henry de Bromhead’s ten-year-old had been third in the last two runnings of the Champion and made no mistake with the favourite’s below-par showing having left the door ajar.

    I’ll discuss sectional times in more depth when touching on Altior’s Arkle later in the piece, but their significance here is in showing that Special Tiara was anything but allowed an easy time in front. Indeed in seeing off early pressure from both Douvan and Garde La Victoire he set a really good gallop and, aided by some brilliantly fluent jumping, he held the late challenge of Fox Norton all out.

    Special Tiara had been awarded 168 in each of the last two Anglo-Irish Classifications and looked very much back to his best here. Basing the race around the form of others (including in handicaps) I feel he ran to 167 on the day. Going back to 2007 that figure is the joint lowest winning performance in recent history along with Dodging Bullets but that is unlikely to worry his connections one bit.

    Fox Norton was back on song after a slight dip at Newbury and ran to his best of 166 – I’ve revised our level on the Shloer from 167. In an ideal world he’d have met the third last on a better stride which might have given him a better platform for his late surge; but I would stop short of calling him unlucky bearing in mind how hard Special Tiara had gone.

    The Tom George pair of Sir Valentino and God’s Own looked Special Tiara’s main rivals going to the second last. Unfortunately God’s Own made his second major mistake at that fence and ended up fading into fifth. Rated 165, he should still give a good account at Aintree and Punchestown having won at both fixtures last spring. Sir Valentino has really stepped up this season and now has three solid 160 performances to his name with this Grade 1 third representing his biggest achievement to date.

    Top Gamble and Traffic Fluide ran with credit as they stayed on into fourth and sixth. Personally I feel their late progress may flatter them a shade, however, given they were unable to go with the principals from the top of the hill.

    This time last year Douvan had just added the Racing Post Arkle to his Supreme Novices’ Hurdle success without having to show his best form, and now the very exciting Altior is in exactly the same boat. Some watchers were left deflated by the fact he was off the bridle in second when handed the race by Charbel’s departure at the second last; but study of the sectional times offers more than a little mitigation.

    Going by my hand times, the Arkle was run in a time around half a second faster than the following day’s Champion Chase under very similar conditions. However, while Special Tiara’s race was run at a strong gallop, Charbel was very much allowed his own way in front and dictated a pace that saw him reach the third last fence some 4.5 seconds or 20L slower than Special Tiara had.

    The fact the Arkle field had enough left to make up that deficit and more underlines how the race developed at a much later stage than the Champion. Altior had to be driven to respond to Charbel’s kick initially but he had closed the gap to half a length when Charbel departed and, realistically, was only just beginning to get going. The formbook suggests Altior would have been too strong for Charbel and the nature in which he increased his margin over the second-placed Cloudy Dream from two lengths at the last to six lengths at the line further convinces me.

    Had Charbel stood up I think he’d have finished second. In that instance, with six lengths covering the first three home. In a falsely-run race Altior was always going to struggle to justify his lofty rating. That figure has still been adjusted, however, from 170 to 168 and there are several strands to why.

    Firstly, Fox Norton endorsed the Newbury race in which Altior got his figure when touched off in the Champion; but there was a suspicion he had not enjoyed the ideal preparation for that contest following an injury. More pertinently, the third-placed Dodging Bullets ran poorly in the Grand Annual later in the week suggesting the chink of light from Newbury had merely been a false dawn.

    I could have dropped Altior lower than 168 but I still definitely believe in him. Further to that, he had slammed the Champion Hurdle winner Buveur d’Air in last year’s Supreme. I feel with that one going to 167 Altior (still unbeaten over jumps) deserves to be higher. At 168 he sits 1lb below where Sprinter Sacre and Douvan were at the end of their novice seasons. I still think he’ll surpass 170 when the opportunity presents itself. Maybe a clash with Special Tiara in the Celebration Chase at Sandown on the final day of the season could materialise.As for the other principals from the Arkle, Charbel can of course have his rating raised having got as far as the second last and I moved him from 147 to 154. His pre-race 147 was made to look on the low side by both Max Ward’s win last Saturday and his earlier defeat of Top Notch. Cloudy Dream was also raised, from 147 to 153. Averaging out the performances for second and third in the Arkle over the last 10 years returns a figure of around 153. Basing Charbel and Cloudy Dream around that level should ensure I am in the ‘right’ area until further evidence emerges.

    The third 2m chase of the week was the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap and it went the way of Jessica Harrington’s Rock The World. The nine-year-old showed the benefit of a breathing operation as he made light of a mark 1lb higher than when third last year. Should he come back for the Red Rum at Aintree he’ll be up 5lb to 152.

    SOLID AIR


    In a season when the two mile hurdle division had looked anything but clear cut, the decision to return Buveur d’Air to hurdles in the run up to the Stan James Champion Hurdle proved the decisive move, writes David Dickinson.


    Whatever history might suggest about the merit of the Class of 2017, Buveur d’Air does jump like a top class hurdler. In lowering the colours of his stable companion My Tent Or Yours, who returned to form on this better ground, he showed that fluent jumping is all important in Championship races. My Tent Or Yours’ rating of 162 for finishing second in the race to Annie Power fits fairly closely with the Irish Champion Hurdle ratings of 161 and 157 recorded by Petit Mouchoir and Footpad in that race.

    I could have gone a pound or maybe two higher but the last time I have the ten year old My Tent Or Yours running above 162 was in the 2014 Scottish Champion Hurdle and he has not won a race since. This gives Buveur d’Air a perfectly respectable Champion Hurdle winning rating of 167, below the level his Supreme conqueror of 2016, Altior, has achieved over fences.

    The Sky Bet Supreme did not look a vintage renewal either and fell to Labaik whose reluctance to start, rather than any perceived lack of ability, ensured that he went off at a fancy price. The Supreme was the slower race by some two and a half seconds this year and Labaik’s rating of 155 is somewhere around a par figure for the race. How often in future he will jump off at the start of a race is anyone’s guess, however.

    Friday’s decisive victory of the favourite Defi Du Seuil in the JCB Triumph Hurdle showed him to be a step ahead of his contemporaries – a position he has enjoyed for much of the season. Any worries about quicker ground or doubts about his jumping were dispelled with a fine display and his 155 winning rating has only been bettered in this race by Our Conor, Peace And Co and Katchit since 2000.

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  9. #427
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Perpetual View Post
    ...while the time comparison with the Pertemps suggest a mighty 192.
    I'd love to know how they arrived at that figure. There was only 0.40s in it (in favour of the Pertemps) and the handicap winner carried a pound more.
    Last edited by Desert Orchid; 23rd March 2017 at 8:57 PM.
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    Senior Member Grasshopper's Avatar
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    Whoever this particular handicapper is, why does he even mention a patently-ridiculous figure of 192, if he is ultimately going to award a number in the high-160's? It just makes him look like a fanny.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Whoever this particular handicapper is, why does he even mention a patently-ridiculous figure of 192, if he is ultimately going to award a number in the high-160's? It just makes him look like a fanny.
    Something along those lines crossed my mind too. It was an unwise thing to write, at least without double/triple checking first.
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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    Fox Norton was outpaced at a crucial time in the QM. His optimum is two and a half.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Perpetual View Post
    Friday’s decisive victory of the favourite Defi Du Seuil in the JCB Triumph Hurdle showed him to be a step ahead of his contemporaries – a position he has enjoyed for much of the season. Any worries about quicker ground or doubts about his jumping were dispelled with a fine display and his 155 winning rating has only been bettered in this race by Our Conor, Peace And Co and Katchit since 2000.
    Our Conor, yes.

    Peace And Co and Katchit? My hole.
    "Beat the price and lose. It's what we do".

    SlimChance, March 2018

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Peace And Co and Katchit? My hole.
    I'll need to check back through my figure for P&C but I don't recall Katchit's figure being anything but ordinary. Then again, he was a rare 5yo winner of the CH.
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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    P&C 157+... Defi Du Seuil 158+... Our Conor 168... Can't find docs with Katchit's Triumph rating . It'll be up the loft.
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    Senior Member Grey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    P&C 157+... Defi Du Seuil 158+... Our Conor 168... Can't find docs with Katchit's Triumph rating . It'll be up the loft.
    If it's up there it must be quite high

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Very good, Grey!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I'd love to know how they arrived at that figure. There was only 0.40s in it (in favour of the Pertemps) and the handicap winner carried a pound more.
    My guess is that when he wrote that he initially meant or wrote 162 not 192, then he has re-read his original thoughts and assumed 192. I'll wager it was a typo, because there is no way you could award a silly figure like 192 time level figure based on the Pertemps finisning time.

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    Handicappers update...

    THE 2017 RANDOX HEALTH GRAND NATIONAL FESTIVAL HANDICAPPERS BLOG / 11 APR 17

    There was plenty of excitement at this years Randox Health Grand National Festival and the BHA Handicapping team cover the top-class action here, with Phil Smith’s Head of Handicapping blog to follow.

    CHAMPION AT TWO TRIPS


    The headline event of the opening day of the Aintree meeting was the Grade 1 Betway Aintree Hurdle run over 2m4f writes Chris Nash.

    It featured the first two from the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham three weeks earlier and they filled the same positions on Thursday. Buveur D’Air had beaten My Tent Or Yours by four and a half lengths at Cheltenham and extended that to five lengths at Aintree. In my view this victory over the extra half mile was even more authoritative than his Cheltenham one.


    Buveur D’ Air clears the last flight before going on to win The Gr. 1 Betway Aintree Hurdle Race.
    My colleague, Dave Dickinson, had them running to 167 and 162 at Cheltenham and it seems reasonable to use that starting point for their Aintree performances. It is hard to argue against leaving My Tent Or Yours at his pre-race figure of 162 which has Buveur D’Air running to a bare figure of 167+. I thought he did this cosily and he was eased down a touch at the line; so his post-race mark will be 169. Further substance to this form is given by The New One who finished a length and a half behind My Tent Or Yours in third running to 160. He had finished fifth in the Champion Hurdle last time out and improved on his 156 there over this longer trip. Buveur D’Air has now recorded the best hurdling figure of the season over both 2m and 2m4f. Some horse.

    Finian’s Oscar winning The Gr.1 Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle
    The Saturday card at Aintree included the Grade 1 Betway Mersey Novice Hurdle also run over 2m4f. Finian’s Oscar went into the race as the highest rated runner on 149. He started favourite and took the prize by three lengths from Captain Forez with the admirably consistent Messire Des Obeaux a further three and a quarter lengths back in third.

    We had the third running to 146 on his previous three starts including last time out when he was third in the Neptune at Cheltenham; so the “easy” way to rate this race would have been to have him replicating that figure and working from there. However, the second and fourth arrived with pre-race marks of 131 and 130 respectively. Whilst it is perfectly reasonable to assume both have run career bests, I was conscious not to get carried away with this form.

    I settled on a figure of 150 for Finian’s Oscar which has Captain Forez running to 147. He retains his novice status for next season and you would have to imagine he will take high rank in similar races next time round. His post-race mark of 147 places him just ahead of Messire Des Obeaux. Him I have running to 144 on Saturday but he will retain his pre-race mark of 146 as his official rating. Benatar in fourth also ran to a career-best figure of 142.

    The winner retained his unbeaten record and connections believe there is still further improvement in him – he is an exciting prospect for next season when a novice chase campaign is on the cards.

    KING FOR A DAY


    Yanworth, writes Martin Grenwood, had already proved he was somewhat of a stayer in his novice season so it was no surprise that he found the three mile trip on decent ground on a sharp track no problem at Aintree on Saturday. Winner of eight of his ten starts, Yanworth had proved his versatility by winning over the minimum trip earlier in the season but came up short in the Champion Hurdle. His future probably lies over the longer trips.


    The Ryanair Stayers Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1)
    This did not look a vintage renewal of the Ryanair Stayers Liverpool Hurdle and the result backed up that feeling. Indeed Yanworth, who idled a little in front, did not need to match his pre-race rating of 163 to beat the Irish pair of Supasundae and Snow Falcon with Taquin du Seuil back in fourth. Snow Falcon (159) is a consistent performer in Graded events in Ireland. The other two have recorded personal bests over hurdles having both contested the Coral Cup at the Festival. Supasundae is now rated 160 and has progressed well of late while Taquin du Seuil has almost matched his best chase form and is now 157. Yanworth is still rated a few pounds inferior to the first two in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham – Nichols Canyon (169) and Lil Rockrfeller (168).

    The previous day we had what seemed an up-to-standard staying novice hurdle which went the way of The Worlds End. In the equivalent race at Cheltenham he had been in contention when coming down at the second last and made amends here. I do not quite have him matching the 149 suggested at the Festival. He was in front for long enough here and might also have idled after the last.

    The next three home all hit new heights particularly Debece who had won a handicap from only 121 last time. The major disappointment was West Approach. He drifted badly in the market and never really jumped or travelled. His form earlier in the season, especially in the Cleeve Hurdle, made him look the best staying novice this season but his last two efforts have been lamentable. Perhaps he needs softer ground or maybe there is something badly amiss.

    FOX NORTON MAKES AMENDS


    The Grade 1 JLT Melling Chase is likely to prove pivotal when deciding the Champion 2m4f Chaser of 2016/17 says Mark Olley.


    Fox Norton on his way to winning The JLT Melling Chase
    We still have three weeks of the season remaining and the significant Punchestown fixture to come; but as things currently stand I have a new horse heading the ratings.

    Fox Norton was arguably an unlucky loser of the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham. He clearly relished the step up to 2m4f in the JLT Melling and was a very decisive winner. I thought the winning six lengths margin was value for 8lb and his new figure is 170 (up 4lb).

    From an historical perspective Fox Norton sits behind Don Cossack (175 in 2015) and Sprinter Sacre who achieved an almighty 188 in 2013 but there is no shame in that. Connections seem sure he will stay further still and I would be very surprised if we have already seen the best of this 7yo.

    Sub Lieutenant was campaigned mainly at 3m last season. He has raced exclusively around 2m4f this time and with a Grade 2 win at Down Royal and second places in the Ryanair and Melling that decision has been well rewarded. Sandra Hughes’ gelding got within one and a half lengths of the aggressively ridden Un de Sceaux at Cheltenham; but, when ridden more aggressively himself at Aintree, found Fox Norton six lengths too good.

    Josses Hill and Uxizandre both also ran in the Ryanair at Cheltenham and both were beaten considerably further at Aintree.

    UPSETS APLENTY


    With just three weeks between the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals there were form turn arounds aplenty at the latter, few more striking than in the Grade One Crabbie’s Top Novice Hurdle, writes David Dickinson.

    Cheltenham’s Sky Bet Supreme had seen an excellent display by the promising River Wylde, previously a winner on the sharper Kempton and Ludlow two mile courses. But last week he failed to jump with his usual fluency although he had made a serious error at the final flight at Cheltenham last month.


    Pingshou and Robbie Power after winning The Crabbie’s Top Novices’ Hurdle
    His failure to reproduce that running contrasts markedly with that of Cheltenham also-ran Pingshou. He continued a stellar week for the Potts/Tizzard/Power triumvirate. He bounced back from his Prestbury flop and appeared to relish the better ground even though this grand looking individual looks the sort who might want softer ground and a more galloping track. The only clue to Pingshou’s sudden rise to Grade One winning status came in his previous appearance on Good ground at Cheltenham in November. That was his only previous victory – gained at the expense of William Henry who went on to be rated higher once stepped up in trip.


    Defi Du Seuil wins The Doom Bar Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle
    With Moon Racer again disappointing, Mount Mews and The Unit seem to give a good guide to the level of the form. Pingshou is now rated 150 but this does not suggest that he is likely to be a match for last year’s winner Buveur d’Air. Given Pinshou’s physique surely a crack at chasing beckons next season.

    Defi du Seuil could easily have found the Grade One Doom Bar Anniversary Hurdle a race too far in a long season but he handled it with aplomb. He never looked likely to fail, making it seven wins out of seven. He did not quite need to run to the level that he produced in the JCB Triumph so his rating remains unchanged on 155.

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    And Phil's view...

    THE RANDOX HEALTH GRAND NATIONAL FESTIVAL 2017: HEAD OF HANDICAPPING BLOG / 12 APR 17

    ONE FOR ARTHUR’S SUCCESS IN THE RANDOX HEALTH GRAND NATIONAL PROVIDES A WELCOME BOOST FOR NORTHERN JUMP RACING says Phil Smith.

    Following in the footsteps of Auroras Encore (2013) and Ballabriggs (2011), the world’s most famous horse race has been won by northern trained horses on three occasions in the last seven years.


    Much has already been written about the brilliant ride given to the winner by Derek Fox which indeed it was. It was an unusual National in that all bar one of the first twelve home got hold up rides. Look at the Raceform comments – “held up” was used four times, “mid div” (four times) and “towards rear” (thrice). Arguably Rogue Angel and Roi Des Francs at one point went too fast. This was not in the early stages but might have been towards the end of the first circuit and going out for the second one. It was noticeable that, after being badly hampered by a loose horse, Roi Des Francs was back in front in less than a furlong.



    One For Arthur ran a very similar race to his one at Warwick. In my notes for that race are the comments that it was a very good pace given the heavy ground and that Vivaldi Collonges, Rigadin de Beauchene and Shotgun Paddy set it up for a closer. One For Arthur is not blessed with great pace. However he has two great qualities which will hold him in good stead next year. He jumps and he stays.

    I have put him up 8lb for winning, from 148 to 156. In this year’s race that would have given him 11st 5lb. Would he have won carrying that weight this year? I do not know but I am sure he would have had a chance. That is the object of the official Handicapper – to give all of the horses an equal chance. Of course he is only eight years old. There has not been a younger Grand National winner since 1940. So there may be some more improvement in him for next year’s Randox Health Grand National.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Hmmm... that's a disappointingly lightweight piece from Mr Smith there.

    He's usually much more insightful than that.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    QIPCO Guineas Festival 2017 Handicappers Blog / 09 May 17

    Bring on the rematch

    Saturday’s Qipco 2000 Guineas was in many ways an extremely satisfying result, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill, even if in other ways it was less than clear cut and left some questions unanswered.

    Given that last season’s champion 2yo Churchill (pre-race 122) and his stable companion Lancaster Bomber (117) represented the best of 2016’s juvenile form – they filled the first two places in the Dewhurst – it was pleasing to see them finish first and fourth on Saturday.

    They each enjoyed a much cleaner passage through the race than others so it seems sensible to base the race on them. This suggests that Churchill has run to 120+ (retains his published handicap mark of 122) and Lancaster Bomber to his 117.

    In terms of an historical context this is a pound superior to another O’Brien winner Camelot in 2012 and on the same level as Cockney Rebel (2007) and last year’s victor Galileo Gold amongst the previous ten winners. It is some way short of Frankel’s 130 in 2011 but, with the other nine winners during that period all performing between 119 and 123, Churchill’s performance can be classified as a solid Guineas-winning effort.


    Had there been a stronger early pace it is quite possible that the principals could have put more distance between themselves and the like of Eminent in sixth (pre-race 111, ran to 112), Top Score in seventh (pre-race 108 and having his twelfth start) and Spirit of Valor in eighth (pre-race 102). The proximity of those horses tempers the level of the race.


    Where Churchill goes from here is a matter for connections. From a purely personal point of view I hope he stays at a mile for the time being. This should allow for a rematch with the placed horses Barney Roy and Al Wukair. For neither of them did the race go as smoothly as for Churchill and each remain open to further improvement. Barney Roy did not enjoy the undulations of Newmarket and did not help his chance by stumbling for a stride or two in the dip. Al Wukair was set a stiff task in being held up in a steadily run race. Under the circumstances both did well to post figures of 118 and 117 respectively. Had things panned out differently it might have been a much closer finish.

    Sunday’s Qipco 1000 Guineas was run at a stronger pace. Whereas things dropped perfectly for Ryan Moore on Churchill, they certainly did not for him on Rhododendron who met all sorts of trouble before staying on to finish second to stable companion Winter.
    In the previous ten running of the race the best third placed performance was the 111 recorded by Saoirse Abu behind Natagora in 2008. In fact there has only been one third placed performance that has bettered that since 2002. We took the view that the effort of Daban, who was third on Sunday, was of comparable quality. We called her 111 and worked from there. This means that Winter ran to 116 and Rhododendron to 112+ in finishing second. Rather conveniently this means that both Winter and Rhododendron will now be published at 116 in their native Ireland. Hopefully time will tell us which is the better filly.

    From historical perspective it also means that Winter’s performance was above average for the race. It has been bettered only by Finsceal Beo (119) in 2007 and Minding (118) last year. It is on a par with runaway 2012 winner Homecoming Queen and with Legatissimo in 2015.

    Go online for the Class 1 performance figures

    In a move to increase the data available to racing fans the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) has today, for the first time, published the Handicappers’ official performance figures from Saturday’s Class 1 races.

    This will now become the norm with performance figures from all Class 1 races from the preceding Sunday through to Saturday to be published via the BHA website’s results pages every Tuesday morning. You can look them up at http://www.britishhorseracing.com/ra...tures/results/. This is separate to the regular posting of all BHA Official Ratings.

    Performance figures are the figures that the Handicapper believes a horse has performed to in any single given race. Performance figures are used as the basis for allotting official handicap ratings though they will often differ from a horse’s official rating which will be based on the form a horse has produced in all its recent runs rather than a one-off performance.

    Richard Wayman, Chief Operating Officer for the BHA, said:

    “Many racing fans enjoy discussing the merit of performances, particularly following the major races, and the publication of our handicapping team’s performance figures in all Class 1 races will provide an official perspective to add to such debates. Making these figures available will also help with our ongoing efforts to illustrate the general approach adopted by the handicappers to assessing races.”

    Marsha’s Palace House win the best of the millennium

    The main focus of last week was understandably on the first Classics of the season but the sprinting division also cranked up a notch with two Group 3 races – the 5f Longholes Palace House Stakes at Newmarket and the 6f Merriebelle Stable Pavilion Stakes at Ascot

    The former, writes Stewart Copeland, looked a competitive renewal. Fifteen went to post including the first two home in last year’s Group 1 Qatar Abbaye at Longchamp in Marsha and Washington DC. As in that race, they fought out the finish with Marsha proving triumphant again and edging out her old rival by a neck.

    In doing so she was the first horse since the brilliant mare Lochsong in 1994 to defy a Group 1 7lb penalty in the Palace House.

    Once again Marsha impressed how strongly she travelled through the race and, when asked to deliver her winning challenge, found plenty for pressure. In conceding weight to all Marsha improved on her Abbaye figure of 111. She has been credited with a new rating of 116. As for Washington DC, I have him reproducing his current rating of 111.

    To put the performance in to a historical context, Marsha’s rating of 116 is the highest winning figure in the Palace House this millennium. It eclipses the previous joint high of 114 set by Sole Power in 2014 and Equiano in 2010.

    Earlier in the week was the aforementioned Pavilion Stakes with the 3yo sprinters taking centre stage. Since the revamp of the 3yo sprint scene a couple of years back there has been a resurgence in the division. This year’s race promises plenty for the season ahead.

    The market was headed by Blue Point and Harry Angel. They each brought top class juvenile form to the table so it was no surprise that they fought out the finish.

    Blue Point had been successful in last year’s 6f Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes on the Knavesmire and also an excellent third to Churchill in the 7f Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket on his final start. He showed that he has trained on with a thoroughly professional performance. Tracking the pace travelling well, he was asked to assert over a furlong out and soon had the race under control. He won a shade comfortably by a length and a half. I have him running to 114+ and his rating remains at 116.

    In chasing him home, last year’s 6f Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes winner Harry Angel ran his best race to date. In contrast to his vanquisher, Harry Angel is still not the finished article on this evidence. He took a fierce hold early in the race which did himself few favours. Then, when he came to throw down his challenge, he still looked green under pressure. All things considered this was still a most creditable performance, even more so given he was conceding 4lbs to Blue Point. I have Harry Angel improving his rating from 110 to 114.


    Handicappers help trainers a thousand times

    Last week saw the thousandth time that an owner and trainer managed to get a run for their horse using a new rule which was championed by the Handicappers.

    Over the years, writes Matthew Tester, owners and trainers have hated to have horses whose ratings finished in a one or a six. This was because so many of the rating bands for handicaps end with a zero or a five. At certain times of year that one pound could make all the difference between getting into a race next week and having to wait until next month.

    A new rule came in from mid-December. In most handicaps a horse that is a pound or two above the rating grade can run carrying the extra weight as long as there is space for him in the race. Nobody for whom the race was originally programmed is ever thrown out to make room for the +1 horse. But, if the race has not filled, the +1 horse gets in.

    From the point of view of the owner and trainer, they get a chance to run their horse when it would otherwise not be an option. From the racecourse’s point of view they get an extra runner that they would not have had. From the betting point of view the race gets an extra competitive edge and, in some cases, each way bettors gets an extra place.

    The Handicappers as well as the Racing Department were all too aware of how difficult the placing of horses can be. We do not want horses sitting in their boxes at home when they are ready to go to the races. This is why we championed the proposal and helped to get the rule introduced.

    The split of the 1012 runners has been about 60/40 Flat over Jumps. There have been 102 winners on the Flat and 59 over Jumps with Chase winners just edging ahead of Hurdle ones. Trainers have been very keen on the initiative and we have had nothing but support from them.

    The relationship between Handicappers and trainers is not the open warfare that some people might imagine. It is more like the one between referees and footballers. We are there to facilitate a fair contest between competing horses. Like referees, if we can see a rule change which would help the game, we are happy to propose it.

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