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Thread: The thoughts of the handicappers.

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    NEWMARKET JULY FESTIVAL / 12 JUL 16


    TWO CLASS FILLIES


    Two high quality fillies lit up the mile division at Newmarket’s July meeting last week writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.With luck they may meet at some point during the remainder of the season. I am, of course, referring to Lumiere and Alice Springs.

    The former proved herself a top class 2yo last year with victory in the Cheveley Park and her rating of 116 saw her topped only by Minding (120) in the 2yo filly pecking order. A poor run in the 1000 Guineas led to various comments about whether she had been overrated, had not trained on or perhaps did not get the mile. Her six lengths demolition of the field in Thursday’s listed Plusvital Henry Cecil Stakes answered all those questions in no uncertain terms. From a ratings perspective, things slotted in neatly with runner-up Cymric appearing to reproduce his 109 gained when fourth in the St James’s Palace at Royal Ascot on his previous start. Kentuckyconnection (fourth: pre-race 108), Atlantic Sun (fifth: 102) and Mohab (sixth: 98) each ran to, or within a pound of, their current marks. This suggests that Lumiere reproduced her 116 figure and a step back into Group company is eagerly awaited.

    If that was the appetiser, then Alice Springs provided the main course with success in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes on Friday. Again the race looks relatively simple to rate as Always Smile (third) looks to have reproduced her current mark of 110 and that fits pretty well with Irish Rookie (fourth: pre-race 106) improving a pound to 107 and Ashadihan (fifth: 106) running a pound off her Coronation form.

    The general view at Royal Ascot was that Alice Springs was an unlucky loser of the Coronation and this result adds credence to that view. Not only does my race rating of 115 better my figure for Coronation winner Qemah (114), but a straight form line using Ashadihan also gives Aidan O’Brien’s filly the edge. At Ascot Qemah beat her by a whisker over 4 lengths, at Newmarket Alice Springs beat her by 4.75 lengths. This suggests that Alice Springs might have scored by around half to three quarters of a length with more luck.

    Not to be outdone, the boys hit back with a fine performance from Mutakayyef in the Fred Cowley MBE Summer Mile at Ascot on Saturday. With two wins from two runs since being gelded, this was the best performance of the 5yo’s career and I have raised his mark from 112 to 118. This is based on third placed Gabrial returning to the sort off form he showed when third in both the Sussex Stakes and the QE II last year and Kodi Bear (sixth) running the same race as he did in the Queen Anne. This implies that Dutch Connection (second: pre-race 115) and Custom Cut (fourth: 114) were a couple of pounds shy of their best with performances of 113 and 112. With Europe’s top older milers struggling to break the 120 barrier, Mutakayyef’s emergence is welcomed.

    LIMATO GOES CLEAR


    This year’s 6f Group 1 Darley July Cup at Newmarket, writes Stewart Copeland, saw the largest field since Sakhee’s Secret win in 2007 also featured eighteen runners. As well as quantity there was also plenty of quality with no less than six of the challengers already successful at the top level.

    The race had a wide open look beforehand but, on course, there was sustained support for the Henry Candy trained four-year-old gelding Limato. That confidence in the market, which eventually sent him off favourite, was not misplaced.

    Limato went in to the race as the highest rated in the field on 119 based largely on his impressive success in the 7f Group 2 Park Stakes at Doncaster last year. Having contested the Lockinge over 8f on his reappearance, Limato was dropping back to 6f for the first time since he chased home last year’s top European sprinter, Muhaarar, in the inaugural Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.

    Travelling well within himself off what was a decent pace from the word go, it always looked a case of when, not if, he would stamp his authority on the race. Quickening to the front over a furlong out, Limato soon went clear in tremendous style though he gave his supporters a moment of worry when hanging right across the track. Thankfully that made no difference to the result apart from the fact a case could be made he would have won by further than two lengths but for his wanderings.

    Having already shown a level of form good enough to win an average July Cup, it was a case of deciding whether Limato improved further still to win how he did. In beating a field of such depth and quality I have taken the view that he has. Both the historical and pre-race form standards line up on a rating of 121 and the impressive nature of his success fully merits crediting him with that level of performance. Allocating him that rating puts him on a par with Lethal Force in 2013, and you have to go back to Oasis Dream in 2003 to find a higher rated performance in the race.

    Chasing him home in second was the five-year-old gelding Suedois, who has shown gradual improvement this year since joining David O’Meara. He stepped up again to post a career best effort of 115. Rated 113 when a narrow fifth in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee where, arguably, he was on the wrong side of a pace bias that day he franked that view in improving further still.

    A head behind in third was the progressive 3yo filly Quiet Reflection, winner of this year’s Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. Limato aside, she arguably travelled as well as anything but could not match the winner’s decisive burst. She was also encountering the quickest surface she has faced to date. Currently rated 115, she posted a figure of 112 on the day. She still emerges with plenty of credit though and, given her effectiveness with give in the ground, it was no surprise to hear she will be targeted at some of the big sprint prizes in the autumn.

    Completing the frame in fourth was Profitable, much improved at 5f this year and winner of the Group 1 King’s Stand last time out when he ran to 117. Whilst he showed himself effective at this trip, his best form clearly remains at the minimum and I have him running to 112 here. It was no surprise to hear that the 5f Nunthorpe at York was next on his agenda.

    Quite where Limato goes next depends largely on him getting the fast ground he favours. However his versatility over 6f/7f – connections are still confident he’ll get a mile given the right circumstances – gives him plenty of options and wherever he turns up he is an exciting horse to look forward to.

    HOW GOOD WERE THE NEWMARKET TWO YEAR OLDS?


    Newmarket’s July Festival provided the second concentration of major tests for the two-year-old form following on from Royal Ascot, writes Graeme Smith.

    In the first major race of the week, the Arqana July Stakes, Mehmas put his reputation as the leading British-trained juvenile on the line and it emerged intact following a half-length defeat of the staying-on Intelligence Cross. Mehmas saw off a new wave of competition from the Coventry with Silver Line stepping up in trip from the Norfolk, Ardad doing the same having won the Windsor Castle and a host of promising maiden winners.

    With both the clock and race standards pointing to a repeat of Mehmas’s 110 performance from Royal Ascot I took the view a reproduction of that form was good enough, nor did he seem to have much in reserve. Incidentally, Caravaggio’s effort in beating Mehmas at Ascot remains the current benchmark for European juvenile colts. The placed horses here, Intelligence Cross and Broken Stones, both seem at an earlier stage in their development than the winner so there is still hope for them to progress further.

    In other footnotes, Silver Line became the latest to endorse the Norfolk form and that winner, Prince of Lir, has now been raised to an assessment of 108. Ardad clearly was not himself having failed to settle at the longer trip; but several others from the Windsor Castle have also let that form down and I have reined it back 2lb to 104.

    Mehmas might have passed his latest test but he lost his status as the leading British juvenile following the 7f Bet365 Superlative Stakes later in the week. This was one of those cases where a couple of debut winners leap-frogged some more established types. Boynton and War Decree drew upwards of five lengths clear of a pair who had finished in the frame in the Chesham.

    A speed figure of 103 does not quite substantiate the level to the extent the speed figure did in the July Stakes; but that is probably down to the time it took for the pace to get going. Both historical standards and a direct line through the Chesham form lead to a new assessment of 113 for Boynton. War Decree gets 110 via my workings but his figure at this stage is in the hands of my Irish counterpart.

    Boynton and War Decree are both hugely imposing colts and have already come a long way in just two starts apiece. The 99-rated Mr Scaramanga remains with potential too. He was doing his best work late when fourth in the Chesham and here reversed the placings with Cunco; and that without getting a clear run here.
    Whilst the US-trained Lady Aurelia had blown the Queen Mary field apart at Royal Ascot I am still waiting for a European filly to announce herself as top class. The first five home in the Albany were covered by little more than two lengths.

    The Duchess of Cambridge (Sponsored by Imagine Cruising) proved a similar story as Aidan O’Brien’s Roly Poly raised her game to see off Magical Fire by half a length. A winning performance of 103 ranks above only those of Arabian Queen (2014) and Please Sing (2008) since 1991. It is obviously still early days for these fillies. The level of competition promises to get tougher with a handful of potentially smart maiden winners from the last week including Dabyah and Easy Victory. Also, Frankel’s daughter Fair Eva has had her impressive Haydock success franked several times over as she waits for her next assignment.

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    POSTPONED RULES / 24 AUG 16


    The 10f Juddmonte International produced the best performance of the week in ratings terms courtesy of Postponedwrites Andrew Mealor. The highest-rated horse in Europe, Postponed is currently on 124 and faced eleven rivals in what looked a solid renewal of the International.
    The opposition was headed by King George winner Highland Reel (121) who was attempting to give trainer Aidan O’Brien a record-breaking sixth win in the race. Also challenging was Godolphin’s Eclipse winner Hawkbill (122), one of only two three-year-olds in the line-up along with King George runner-up Wings of Desire (115). The other to start at single-figure odds was the improving five-year-old Mutakayyef (118) who was stepping up in trip after landing the Summer Mile at Ascot.

    Despite being forced to miss the King George due to a well-publicised virus, Postponed was a still a warm order at 15/8 and did not let his supporters down. Sensibly kept handy by rider Andrea Atzeni as his stablemate King Bolete did the pacemaking duties, Postponed was sent for home 3f out after travelling well and always looked like holding on despite the best efforts of Highland Reel in second.

    An assessment of pre-race and historical standards suggests a figure in the low-to-mid 120s as an appropriate level for the race. It seemed logical to assess both the winner and second as running to their pre-race ratings given the length and a quarter gap between them at the line which I have called 3lb.

    Postponed and Highland Reel’s ratings remain unchanged as a result. Slightly less straightforward was what to do with Mutakayyef who was beaten a further length in third. He may have finished closer but for running out of room late on as Postponed drifted across him. It is possible that interference cost him second place – to my eyes it might have been a close-run thing – though for now I have settled on a figure of 120 for him, 1lb behind Highland Reel.

    That still represents a career best for the William Haggas-trained gelding. It is also worth bearing in mind that his defeat of Dutch Connection in the Summer Mile has worked out well with that rival improving to a rating of 119 when subsequently landing the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood.

    That level for the International ties in well enough with most of the beaten horses. It does represent a further jump forward for Highland Reel’s stablemate Sir Isaac Newton who was beaten just over four lengths in fourth. He came into the race a fair way off the first three on a rating of 112. Although his record over 10f this year is progressive and it is believable at this stage that he could have improved a bit more granted this test. He has been put up 4lb to a mark of 116 by the Irish handicapper as a result.

    The disappointment of the race was Hawkbill with the ground offering an obvious excuse on the colt’s first outing on firmish conditions since a poor showing on his debut. Whatever the issue at York his Eclipse form has been franked by both The Gurkha and Time Test since Sandown and he remains on a figure of 122.

    The other two races I dealt with on the Knavesmire came on the final day. Scarlet Dragon continued his progress with a decisive success in the opening 10f handicap earning himself a further 7lb rise to a mark of 99. Both the visual impression and analysis of the sectional data suggest the race was falsely run. Eric The Red and Battalion, third and fifth respectively, caught the eye coming from off the pace.

    The Strensall Stakes went to the in-form Scottish who produced a career best figure of 116 in landing his first Group race. Ex-South African-trained Yorker made a promising start for his new trainer William Haggas. Yorker had been off the track for two years before finishing a staying-on second. He ran to a figure of 113+ on the day but had been rated as high as 118 following a Group 1 success in his native country in 2014. I have placed him on a mark of 116 for now so as not to be rated ahead of Scottish. It will be exciting to see if he can regain his former peak with this run behind him.


    ONE FAST ANGEL


    The feature race at York on Friday, writes Chris Nash, was the Group 1 Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes run over 5f.
    It looked a solid renewal on paper beforehand and the race lived up to its billing. For a big field sprint it was an amazingly clean race and I could see no hard luck stories in it. It saw a dazzling performance from last year’s winner Mecca’s Angel to beat this year’s July Cup winner Limato.

    There were decent distances between the placed horses and that allowed me to take a positive view of the form. I have long been a fan of the winner and her pre-race mark of 120 actually had her the horse to beat in this as the higher-rated Limato (pre-race 121) had to give her 3lbs. In beating him by two lengths (6lbs over 5f) she emerges as a 3lb better horse on the day. There were a further two lengths back to the 3rd who was the admirably consistent Take Cover. He had won a Group 2 last time and was rated 113. There was a neck further back to Cotai Glory who had finished 2nd in the Group 1 Kings’ Stand at Royal Ascot this year and was rated 112.

    The form seemed to largely take care of itself with the 3rd and 4th seemingly running to their marks which had Mecca’s Angel running to 122 and Limato to 119. This represents a career-best effort by the winner and I think this was a better performance than when taking this same race last year. I also feel that it is perfectly reasonable to have Limato slightly below his July Cup figure as he is almost certainly a better horse over further than 5f.

    The next meeting point for the majority of these horses will be in the Abbaye on Arc day although it is likely that Limato will be directed to races over further than 5f with a trip to the Breeders Cup in early November in the mix.


    BLUE IS THE COLOUR


    Saturday saw the Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes – a Group 2 race over 6f for 2-year olds only.

    This race also produced a really good winner in the Gololphin owned Blue Point. He had won his maiden at Nottingham and then waltzed in by eleven lengths in a conditions race at Doncaster. That saw him start favourite for the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood where he was beaten a neck by Mehmas. Connections were keen to point out that making the running that day might not have suited him and he was still learning his job.

    Everything seemed to fall into place on Saturday as he was able to take a lead early on and when asked to extend the result was impressive. He came home three lengths clear for largely hands and heels only riding. In second was Mokarris who had won a Listed race the time before and arrived here rated 105. The third and fourth, The Last Lion and Global Applause respectively, were also Listed winners and arrived rated 104 and 105. The form looks to have solidity for me and I was impressed by the winner.

    The last ten winners of this race have been rated as running to between 108 and 114 but I was happy to rate this winner a touch higher at 115. This has Mokarris running a marginal career best at 107 and the third and fourth each running to 103. Blue Point does not lack for speed and his next race is likely to be the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes next month. Though it is possible that Mehmas will re-oppose and the unbeaten Aiden O’Brien trained Caravaggio may also be running so it promises to be a cracking race.

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    ELIMINATION FROM BIG HANDICAPS / 03 SEP 16


    BHA Head of Handicapping Phil Smith blogs about why we use an elimination system based on weight rather than rating.

    There has been much discussion over the last few weeks about the elimination of three-year-olds from big handicaps, in particular the Betfred Ebor at York. These big races, with their growing prize funds will inevitably be popular with connections. Sadly, that means there has to be an elimination process and there will be winners and losers whatever the process might be.

    Off the back of this we thought it would be worth explaining why we eliminate as we do at present.

    The core reason is the Weight For Age scale and how horses are allocated ratings. In the Ebor a three-year-old receives 12lbs from an older horse. If a hypothetical three-year-old ran against a 95-rated older horse and they were to dead heat, the three-year-old would also be rated 95 but is intrinsically a 12lbs. inferior animal. He has been given the weight for age to compensate him for a lack of maturity, experience and ability.

    Therefore, if the 95 rated three-year-old was given priority over the 95-rated older horse for entry to the Ebor then you would be including a horse that was 12lbs “inferior” to the older horse. This goes against the meritocratic principle behind the elimination process. Horses are often campaigned in order to get in to valuable races like the Betfred Ebor by being run and advancing their official rating. It would then seem unfair for that horse to miss out in favour of an “inferior” horse, purely in order to artificially ensure that some three-year-olds compete in the race. Effectively, the discontent would then be voiced by the owners of the older brigade rather than the supporters of the Classic generation.

    Further than this, any change to the system would have to be across the board and that could cause problems for trainers planning on a day to day basis – for instance, it may prove frustrating for connections of an older horse who find themselves regularly balloted out in favour of three-year-olds who were lower in the weights. This might, in turn, have a knock on effect in terms of the incentive to keep older horses in training.

    For the specific cohort of three-year-olds missing out on the Betfred Ebor, the Betfred Melrose earlier in the same afternoon offers a race which has seen its prize money more than treble in the last decade. Itself now another conundrum for punters producing a 16/1 winner in Wall of Fire from Hugo Palmer’s yard. The addition of what are sometimes called “consolation races” such as the Ayr Silver and Bronze Cups, further demonstrate a racecourse response to the competitive nature of traditional stand out handicaps.

    So while there are arguments for various approaches there is a logic in sticking to the current procedure. So it is the view of the BHA and their Handicapping team that the current system is the correct one. These races still regularly boast full fields and generate vibrant betting markets, and are amongst the most widely anticipated and debated races of the year.

    That said, all these things remain open for review, most recently by the Racing Committee who concur that the judgement (and it can only be a judgement) rests in favour of the argument for the current approach (by weight) to outweigh the arguments for the alternative (by rating).

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    I'd be with the authorities on this question. The current approach is preferable to the situation that used to exist whereby 3yos, many of them future group horses, found it easy to get into big handicaps before the handicapper had a proper chance to assess them.

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    HARBOUR MAKES HIS OWN LAW / 13 SEP 16

    LEGER VERDICT AND IS ONE THROWN IN FOR THE CESAREWITCH?

    The Group 1 Ladbrokes St Leger is fast gaining a reputation as an eventful race writes staying Handicapper Mark Olley.

    Last year it was pure theatre for anyone not personally involved as the placings were changed by the Stewards. This year it was most unwelcome as odds-on favourite and clear top-rated Idaho stumbled and catapulted poor Seamie Heffernan into the ground. Thankfully neither horse nor jockey incurred any lasting damage.

    Idaho came into the race rated 120 for his half length second to Harzand in the Group 1 Irish Derby. That was by far the best form on offer but Aidan O’Brien’s colt had yet to prove his stamina. There would certainly have been no hiding place as the race was led at a searching gallop by the free running Muntahaa.

    With the odds-on favourite out of the picture it was left to another of O’Brien’s trio of runners, Housesofparliament who had finished just under two lengths second to Idaho in the Great Voltigeur at York, to make the best of his way home. This was also his first attempt at 1m6f and in the final few yards of this real stamina test he was beaten but far from disgraced. His pre-race rating of 113 is just below the placed horse standards for the race. As the first two home both came into the race with lower ratings and the three of them pulled well clear of the other finishers, I did not feel a raise was justified.

    Ventura Storm has improved with each step up in distance. This was another career high and he joins Housesofparliament with a rating of 113.

    Harbour Law came into the race with proven stamina. He had finished under a length second in the Listed Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot and had the race run to suit him perfectly. It was only really in the last one hundred yards that he looked like winning and his rating moves from 102 to 114. Laura Mongan’s colt looks sure to improve further and could be a real Cup horse of the future.

    Comparing the race to recent runnings this did not look a vintage year. Filly Simple Verse was rated 115 last year while Masked Marvel was a recent high performing to 122 in 2011.

    The other main staying race of the week was the Group 2 Doncaster Cup. Quest For More was allowed to do his own thing out in front and tried to emulate his recent Lonsdale Cup win at York. However, Martin Harley on Shiekhzayedroad was awake to the danger and sent David Simcock’s gelding to challenge entering the final furlong, just getting his head in front on the line. Quest For More remains rated 114 while Shiekhzayedroad moves up 2lb from 113 to 115.

    St Michel was the only three year old in the race and he looked to have plenty to find with a rating of 99 for winning recent handicaps. He sat further back than either of the first two home and although he stayed on strongly he could not quite reach them. His new rating is 112 (up 13lb) and if he takes up his Cesarewitch entry he will be something of the proverbial handicap good thing. He was rated 93 when the entries were made and carries a 4lb penalty for his win at Goodwood on August 30th which means he will race from 15lbs lower than if the weights were framed now.

    BATTLE OF THE SEXES FOR THE SPRINTING CROWN



    The first weekend in September saw the running of the 6f Group 1 32Red Sprint Cup at Haydock. The main talking point leading up to the race was whether Limato would take part. His impressive July Cup win was the leading performance over 6f in Europe this year writes BHA Handicapper Stuart Copeland.

    Connections had made it abundantly clear though that if Soft featured in the going description he would not take part. For those of us present at the track witnessing the deluge of rain from lunchtime onwards his withdrawal seemed a foregone conclusion.

    However, to use the phrase of one man’s pleasure is another man’s poison, his chief rival on our ratings had no such going concerns having previously shown herself fully effective in testing conditions. This was the three year old filly Quiet Reflection – winner of this year’s Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and a creditable third behind Limato at Newmarket.

    She duly took advantage of his absence, travelling strongly throughout and asserting over a furlong out to run out a decisive winner by length and three quarters from The Tin Man. In terms of ratings we have Quiet Reflection running right up to her best with a rating of 116. Taking her 3lb sex allowance in to account this is well up to the standard we would expect for the winner of this race. The Tin Man producing a marginal career best of 115.

    In terms of the overall sprint picture in Britain Mecca’s Angel heads the standings on 122 based on her success in the 5f Nunthorpe at York. Next best is the aforementioned Limato on 121, with Quiet Reflection currently the pick of the 3yo crop.

    However with the Abbaye de Longchamp and British Champions Sprint, the two remaining Group 1 sprints in Europe, still to come there is still much to play for in this division. Both races could well play significant roles in establishing who finishes on top.

    THE CHAMPAGNE GOES TO RIVET


    William Haggas’ string has hit form with a vengeance in the last week or two and the stable’s most prestigious success in that time came courtesy of Rivet in the Group 2 At The Races Champagne Stakes, writes Graeme Smith.

    Thunder Snow was the clear pick on form pre-race but that was in part down to the opportunities he had in Pattern company. With plenty of market confidence behind Rivet he found enough improvement elevated from maidens to cut down Thunder Snow late in the day.

    My assessment brings Rivet out at 114 which is just 1lb off Mehmas (his National Stakes run comes within the new racing week and the figures are not yet finalised) and Blue Point at the top of the list of British-trained juveniles. That factors in further improvement for Thunder Snow from his second in the Vintage at Goodwood but I do not think anyone would argue against his stable being in much better form now.

    With a race made up primarily of unexposed sorts I always have one eye on historical standards and they point roughly to 114. That figure brings Rivet out towards the middle in a list of Champagne winners from the last decade.

    A knock on from this race was that War Decree’s Vintage success continues to look strong as far as the placed horses go. I am uneasy raising the level of that race wholesale considering what that would do to those who finished further back; but I now think War Decree looks value for 113/114 at the very least.

    The Clugston Construction May Hill Stakes became a good test of stamina thanks to a stiff headwind in the straight. Those conditions proved a much better fit for the stoutly-bred Rich Legacy than she’d face in the Prestige at Goodwood.

    I have her improving to 105 which is again no better than average against recent renewals; but both she and runner-up Grecian Light remain lightly raced and open to improvement.

    The third-placed Urban Fox continues to thrive on racing and I have her making a further step forward to 99.

    There were a handful of other promising performances in the 7f+ juvenile division at Doncaster and the listed Weatherbys Stallion Book Flying Scotsman Stakes saw a very close finish between three previously-unbeaten colts. Rodaini earned a figure of 104 as he emerged on top. He is now a winner of four races and I felt he might even have been idling a shade in front.

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    I really like St Michel for the Ces, but the BHA bod really should have spotted that Sweet Selection's new BHA mark following the Doncaster Cup leaves her potentially even better in than St Michel.

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    Two this week...

    THE CASE AGAINST HANDICAPPING RESTRICTIONS IN NOVICE CHASES / 23 SEP 16


    From time to time it is suggested that the solution to attracting more runners into Novice Chases is to place restrictions on the Handicapping team’s reaction to performances in such races. This was most recently put forward in a column by Colin Russell in the Racing Post which was based on the theory that small fields in weight for age Novice Chases are caused by fear of how much the Handicappers might raise horses that run well. Colin argued that to address this concern, the Handicappers should be restricted to raising any winner of such a race by 10lbs and any placed horse by 5lbs other participants should not be raised at all, writes Head of Handicapping Phil Smith.

    As I have assessed the majority of Novice Chases this summer I went through my files to see if the rises I have given to horses in these races have been disproportionate. We have now had four and a half months of the 2016/2017 Jump season and there have been 49 Novice or Beginners’ Chases which seems a reasonable number when put alongside the much larger number of Novice Handicap Chases.

    There have been 264 runners in the 49 races giving an average field size of just 5.4. Of the 49 winners, 14 have had their handicap rating put up with 35 left on their current mark. Of the 14 winners put up, the average rise was 5lbs and the biggest was 12lbs. This was the only double figure rise which the article wanted to restrict. As it happens this horse, Gabrial The Great, was then dropped 6lbs for finishing third in a Novice Chase and on Sunday he won a 0-140 Handicap Chase.

    Of the 49 horses that have finished second only 5 have been put up with an average figure of 5lbs. Only 2 of these horses were put up by 7lbs which would not have been permitted under Colin’s idea. Actually 14 horses have been dropped for finishing second and the other 30 have been left alone.

    There have been 46 horses that have finished third as three races have had only 2 finishers. One horse was put up 13lbs. It was a 61 rated horse and, having spoken to connections, they were keen to get the horse’s rating raised to what it had achieved so that it could run in handicaps off a proper weight off 74. It has subsequently been placed 4 times carrying 10 stone in 0-100 handicaps. Only one other horse finishing third has been raised and then by only 2lbs. 24 have been left and 20 have been dropped an average of just under 4lbs.

    No horse out of the first three has been raised but they have been dropped a total of 171lbs. As a result, the net amount the 264 runners in Novice Chases have been dropped so far this season is 188lbs.

    So as this evidence illustrates, the fear of a big rise in a handicap rating for finishing close up in a Novice Chase behind a higher rated horse is a perception not a reality.

    Of course there is a big downside of placing a restriction on the Handicapper as proposed. Our aim as Handicappers is to produce ratings that give horses equal opportunities. We are trying to provide a level playing field where no horse is favoured at the weights over another.

    Although the evidence shows that it wouldn’t happen on a regular basis, restricting the Handicappers from applying this principle would simply contaminate the ratings file and undermine the principle of fairness it seeks to deliver. A small number of horses would be favoured at the expense of a much larger number of horses that would have to take them on at disadvantageous terms.

    The issue of field sizes in Novice Chases is a cause for concern and the sport should debate all possible solutions as these races have a vital role to play in developing stars of the future. Putting restrictions on the Handicappers when rating races, however, is one idea that I believe would come with a very big price to pay.

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    THE 2YOS – A BLOG SPECIAL / 27 SEP 16


    Graeme Smith, lead 2yo Handicapper for the BHA, on how he rates all his big races from last week.

    Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire meeting served up a real treat for lovers of juvenile racing. It is fair to say that anyone who found the winners of both Group 1 races is entitled to be on excellent terms with themselves.

    The headline act was undoubtedly the devastating Queen Mary winner Lady Aurelia. She then added the Group 1 Prix Morny over 6f on her latest trip over from the states. There had been a doubt following that Deauville race whether her “blast-from-the-gates” style of racing was truly suited to 6f and she duly came unstuck when odds-on favourite for the Connolly’s Red Mills Cheveley Park Stakes.

    In mitigation it was found that all was not well with Lady Aurelia following a post-race internal examination. There is no doubt at all that she is better than the 109 performance she posted; but I would still question whether 6f is really up her street. I suppose time will tell…

    For every loser there is also a winner and Brave Anna cemented her place near the top of the tree of juvenile fillies as she put a couple of lesser efforts behind her. Aiden O’Brien’s daughter of War Front had belied odds of 16/1 when landing the Albany at Royal Ascot and made light of a 25/1 starting price this time as she got the better of a nip-and-tuck battle with her stablemate Roly Poly.

    Considering the sectional times posted by not only Lady Aurelia but also those who gave closest chase in Roly Poly and Queen Kindly (even Brave Anna ran a slowish final section), there is an argument that Brave Anna ran the race more efficiently that her main rivals. That leaves an element of doubt over the form. That is something to bear in mind down the line though as these fillies run again.

    For the time being there is substance to the result. Historical standards suggested a figure of between 113 and 116 for Brave Anna and a line through Queen Kindly, who admittedly disappointed here, added plenty of flesh to those bones.

    Queen Kindly had posted 113 in the Lowther and Roly Poly 114 in concession of 3lb to her. A reproduction of that running for Roly Poly brought Brave Anna out at 115. If we go back to her Albany success, she beat Queen Kindly by just over half a length – which equates to 2lb. With Queen Kindly at 113, that also brings Brave Anna to 115.

    Okay – so Queen Kindly was not herself here and nor did Fair Eva reproduce that Lowther figure when beaten in the Rockfel; but Fair Eva does have another 109 performance from the Princess Margaret and I am still happy with that level.

    On a historical level Brave Anna emerges as an average winner of the Cheveley Park. Unlike some, however, I do believe she has the physical substance to train on into next year and that she will stay beyond 6f even if her recent record casts a doubt over the latter assertion.

    Sticking with the fillies, Spain Burg put herself in the 1000 Guineas picture with an impressive success in the Group 2 Shadwell Rockfel Stakes over 7f at Newmarket on the previous day. She had already won a listed contest on France and took the next step up with more in hand than the bare one and a quarter lengths margin suggests.

    In the hands of Frankie Dettori Spain Burg travelled strongly in mid-field and was clearly going best as she began her forward move. She hung slightly to her right off the bridle but that did not stop her producing a telling burst to run straight past Fair Eva. I have credited Spain Burg with an extra length for the ease of win and have her running to 109. This is the equal of what Fair Eva had done in previous races.

    From previous Rockfel winners this century the subsequent dual-Guineas winner Finsceal Beo stands out with a performance of 119. Spain Burg still sits above the average and I can see further improvement coming from her.

    While the Cheveley Park was strongly-run the Juddmonte Middle Park was quite the opposite. The sectionals confirm the impression that The Last Lion was the beneficiary of an easy lead. That is not to underplay his achievement as he ran the fastest last furlong of all as he extended his lead.

    It was not easy to make ground from behind and Mehmas and Peace Envoy suffered on that score with the latter also losing his action. The race favourite, Blue Point, had his chance though in soon adopting a handy position and getting to The Last Lion’s girth inside the final furlong.

    Historical standards suggest bang on 117 for The Last Lion and a line through Blue Point’s Gimcrack success at 115 points the same way. That leaves Mehmas a bit below his 115 best but a combination of a poor position following his slow start and his being eased half a length or so late offer mitigation. I still believe in that figure for him.

    There is something reassuring when a horse campaigned fairly aggressively thrives on racing and rises to the top and congratulations go to Mark Johnston and his whole team for the way The Last Lion has developed. I understand why many top horses are campaigned sparingly and saved for the big days but The Last Lion just goes to show that that does not have to be the case. He was not quite the first 2yo winner of the season – there were four races run prior to the Brocklesby this year – but that was an early April start and the Middle Park represented his tenth appearance.

    The Last Lion has raced only at 5f and 6f so far and is largely bred for sprinting, but there is hope in his style of racing that his stamina could stretch out further.

    The Group 2 Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes went the way of Hugo Palmer’s Best Of Days. He was all out to repel a much improved effort from The Anvil and his 108-performance pays another compliment to Syphax who had beaten both Best Of Days and the 108-rated Lockheed in the Acomb at York.

    Larchmont Lad won out in a fairly tight finish to the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes with a performance of 105. I wonder if there will be even more to come from him when faced with better opposition and a longer trip. Though, saying that, if he goes to the Racing Post Trophy he could well have Churchill to content with who I had running to 118 in the National Stakes in Ireland.

    There were a couple of maiden winners who also deserve honourable mentions from the weekend. Talaayeb was by no means the most prepossessing of the fillies in the parade ring prior to the 7f event that kicked off Newmarket’s card on Saturday but there was no doubting her talent. She stormed clear without needing maximum pressure from Paul Mulrennan. That in itself looked a mid-90s performance to me and she will surely be into pattern company next.

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    Quote Originally Posted by davidjohnson View Post
    I really like St Michel for the Ces, but the BHA bod really should have spotted that Sweet Selection's new BHA mark following the Doncaster Cup leaves her potentially even better in than St Michel.
    Very well spotted David - I hope you were on
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    CHAMPIONS ALL / 20 OCT 16

    BEST ASCOT CHAMPIONS DAY EVER? THE BHA HANDICAPPERS WITH HOW THEY SAW IT.


    We start with Dominic Gardiner-Hill’s take on the big 8 and 10f races:

    The feature races at Qipco British Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday certainly did their bit to uphold the card’s illustrious title as few could deny that QE II winner Minding and Champion Stakes victor Almanzor have been two of the brightest stars of the 2016 European season.

    Minding had every right to win the QE II with her pre-race rating of 120 given that she was receiving the 3lb sex allowance from the colts. In landing the seventh Group 1 of her career I believe she put up her best performance so far – a view that is shared by Senior Turf Club Handicapper Garry O’Gorman. I have credited her with a performance of 121, whilst I have runner-up Ribchester improving a pound from 121 to 122 and 3rd placed Lightning Spear up from 117 to 120. I have allowed 2lb for her final winning margin of half a length as I do not believe the margin truly reflects her superiority. She put the race to bed when quickening two lengths clear over a furlong out and was never in any danger from that point on. Only her either idling or tiring a little close home allowed the staying on Ribchester to get as close as he did.

    Given that her performance, with the allowance taken into account, is the equivalent of a 124 for a colt historically her effort surpasses the likes of Ramonti (123 in 2007), Poet’s Voice (122 in 2010), Charm Spirit (122 in 2014) and Solow (119 in 2015) in the last ten years but falls a little way short of the 135 recorded by Frankel in 2011 and the 130 put up by his old sparring partner Excelebration the following year.

    Interestingly, however, in the same ten year period Ribchester’s 122 has only been bettered by Henrythenavigator (125 in 2008) and Excelebration (125 in 2011) in terms of the runner-up’s performance whilst Lightning Spear’s 120 has not been exceeded by any other third-placed finisher. His effort is considered on a par with those of Duke of Marmalade (2007) and Red Jazz in 2010.

    Almanzor had pretty much proved himself the best European trained turf horse of 2016 with his victory in the Irish Champion Stakes five weeks previously. That form could not have had a more solid look to it with runner-up Found’s subsequent victory in the Arc and third placed Minding’s QE II success. Almanzor had originally been credited with a mark of 127 for that success but in retrospect that may have been a little conservative and I now believe that Irish performance was worthy of a mark of 128.

    I believe he surpassed that figure that with a 129 on Saturday which puts the performance currently on a par with Japanese trained A Shin Hikari’s demolition of the Prix d’Ispahan field at Chantilly in May. In a race with a muddling early pace Almanzor was always travelling best and won going away without Christophe Soumillon having to apply maximum pressure. He increased his superiority over Found from .75 of a length to 2 lengths although I think there is a strong case for believing the O’Brien filly did not quite run up to either her Leopardstown or Arc form. I have her running 3lb shy with a performance of 120.

    Jack Hobbs made an extremely satisfying return from injury in third and whilst not quite running up to his current published mark of 123, his performance of 120 is considered exactly the same as filling the same position in the race last year. My Dream Boat stayed on for fourth and I have him running the same 117 that he did when fifth in the Irish Champion, hopefully giving a reliable link between the levels of the two races.

    Again looking at it from a historical perspective, Almanzor’s effort is right out of the top drawer in comparison with the previous ten year’s running’s. At 129 only the mighty Frankel (135 in 2012) and New Approach (130 in 2008) have bettered his performance. Found’s 120, if taken as the equivalent of a colt at 123, has only been surpassed by Cirrus Des Aigles (131 in 2012) and So You Think (125 in 2011) in terms of runners up.

    These figures are obviously my own personal view on Saturday’s proceedings and all these performances will be analysed and assessed when the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings Committee has it’s end of year meeting in Hong Kong in December, but I doubt that I am too far wide of the mark and Champions Day certainly lived up to its title.

    SPRINTER MAN


    After Muhaarar’s imperious 123-rated performance in the inaugural running of the 6f Qipco British Champions Sprint as a Group 1 contest, this year’s renewal had a lot to live up to writes sprint Handicapper Stewart Copeland.

    The race certainly was not lacking in quality with no less than five of the thirteen strong field successful at the highest level. The Nunthorpe heroine Mecca’s Angel and last season’s leading juvenile sprinter Shalaa headed the ratings on 121. A notable absentee though was Limato, who boasts the best performance seen over 6 furlongs in Europe this season when successful in the July Cup.

    However none of the quintet who had already won a Group 1 were to triumph here and instead victory went to the four-year old gelding The Tin Man trained by James Fanshawe. A creditable fourth behind Muhaarar last year, he had advertised his claims for this year’s race with a strong finishing second to Quiet Reflection in the Sprint Cup at Haydock last month. Ridden in similar fashion, he travelled well just off the pace set by trail blazing Signs of Blessing, and came with his trademark strong late surge to win by a length.

    In going one better here, The Tin Man has been credited with improving his rating from 115 to 117. The race itself is not entirely straight forward to rate as that length behind him was Growl who has been in excellent form in top class handicaps but only went in to the race rated 104. However the application of cheek pieces seems to have induced a much improved performance, and with the effort largely backed up on the clock as well, for now he has been credited with a rating of 114.

    The form amongst the other placed horses does give the form a more solid look though with the 116 rated Brando – who beat Growl in the Ayr Gold Cup last time out – a creditable short head behind in third and the aforementioned sole foreign challenger Signs of Blessing a further half-length back. He largely reproduced the level of form he achieved over course and distance when third in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot.

    The upshot of this result means that Mecca’s Angel and Limato still head the European sprint rankings at their respective distances with the latter also showing top class form over 7f when successful recently in the Foret at Chantilly which earns him a current rating of 122. As for the 3yos – despite her below par run at Ascot Quiet Reflection still heads that group with a rating of 116.

    THE SHEIKH’S BEST EFFORT


    Mark Olley on a fascinating battle of the stayers:

    The Group 2 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup was run at a very steady pace, the consequence of which was that there was only just over two lengths between the first five finishers.

    The result was a repeat of the Group 2 Doncaster Cup in which Sheikhzayedroad beat Quest For More. At Doncaster the winning margin was only a nose, but this time it was half a length. In between those two races Quest For More travelled to France where he won the Group 1 Qatar Cadran and he is now rated 117. As Sheikhzayedroad has beaten him the last twice they have met he is a pound higher on a career-best 118.

    Simple Verse was only a length behind the winner in third, receiving her 3lb fillies allowance. This was her first try over 2m but even so she looked to find this an insufficient stamina test and a stronger pace is sure to suit. Ralph Beckett’s filly came into this race rated 113 and taking her allowance into account I have not got her improving on that.

    Odds-on favourite Order Of St George was a further half-length back in fourth. He was held up in this steadily run race and that certainly was not an advantage. Back in the summer, at Royal Ascot, he had finished over five lengths in front of Sheikhzayedroad when winning the Gold Cup. He has been busy of late and this may have been one race too many so soon after his excellent third in the Arc just two weeks previously. In my opinion his Gold Cup win is still the best staying performance of the year in the UK but we will have to wait for the International Classification meeting next month to see if that is ratified by my International colleagues.

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Amendments to handicap race conditions

    http://www.britishhorseracing.com/pr...lacing-horses/

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    Seems like quite a sensible change.

    I'm shocked!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grasshopper View Post
    Seems like quite a sensible change.

    I'm shocked!
    In reality it allows all those trainers with a yard full off 126 and 131 animals to run them in **** poor class 4 handicaps round sedgie and scoop up all the price money. Donald will be chuffed.

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    won't the handicapper just handicap them a bit higher to prevent it though?..at the moment you just rate a horse 81 to stop it running in a 0-80..in future he will just rate it a bit higher to overcome it

    the add 1 thing does occur a lot re handicapping

    agree its a good move by BHA..but maybe over ruled by handicapper

    i might be being a bit cynical obviously..but the add 1 does exist
    Last edited by EC1; 10th November 2016 at 2:53 PM.

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    1 or 2 lbs are definitely added for out-of-range runners. Presumably, the 'top-weight' within the range will be off 11-10 or whatever the conditions demand, and the out-of-range runners will effectively have a 1 or 2lb 'penalty' for the pleasure of taking part.

    Can see how this will give out-of-range horses more chances to run, but can't see how it will allow them to farm races. They are not going to be well-in or better-off, if they have the additional weight applied.

    BTW, only horses who are a maximum of 2lb out-of-range are eligible for these races (on my interpretation).
    Last edited by Grasshopper; 10th November 2016 at 3:35 PM.
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    yep..so instead of adding +1 to keep a horse out of a class range..handicapper will add +3 to a rating to ensure same outcome

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    Quote Originally Posted by Perpetual View Post
    ELIMINATION FROM BIG HANDICAPS / 03 SEP 16


    BHA Head of Handicapping Phil Smith blogs about why we use an elimination system based on weight rather than rating.

    There has been much discussion over the last few weeks about the elimination of three-year-olds from big handicaps, in particular the Betfred Ebor at York. These big races, with their growing prize funds will inevitably be popular with connections. Sadly, that means there has to be an elimination process and there will be winners and losers whatever the process might be.

    Off the back of this we thought it would be worth explaining why we eliminate as we do at present.

    The core reason is the Weight For Age scale and how horses are allocated ratings. In the Ebor a three-year-old receives 12lbs from an older horse. If a hypothetical three-year-old ran against a 95-rated older horse and they were to dead heat, the three-year-old would also be rated 95 but is intrinsically a 12lbs. inferior animal. He has been given the weight for age to compensate him for a lack of maturity, experience and ability.

    Therefore, if the 95 rated three-year-old was given priority over the 95-rated older horse for entry to the Ebor then you would be including a horse that was 12lbs “inferior” to the older horse. This goes against the meritocratic principle behind the elimination process. Horses are often campaigned in order to get in to valuable races like the Betfred Ebor by being run and advancing their official rating. It would then seem unfair for that horse to miss out in favour of an “inferior” horse, purely in order to artificially ensure that some three-year-olds compete in the race. Effectively, the discontent would then be voiced by the owners of the older brigade rather than the supporters of the Classic generation.

    Further than this, any change to the system would have to be across the board and that could cause problems for trainers planning on a day to day basis – for instance, it may prove frustrating for connections of an older horse who find themselves regularly balloted out in favour of three-year-olds who were lower in the weights. This might, in turn, have a knock on effect in terms of the incentive to keep older horses in training.

    For the specific cohort of three-year-olds missing out on the Betfred Ebor, the Betfred Melrose earlier in the same afternoon offers a race which has seen its prize money more than treble in the last decade. Itself now another conundrum for punters producing a 16/1 winner in Wall of Fire from Hugo Palmer’s yard. The addition of what are sometimes called “consolation races” such as the Ayr Silver and Bronze Cups, further demonstrate a racecourse response to the competitive nature of traditional stand out handicaps.

    So while there are arguments for various approaches there is a logic in sticking to the current procedure. So it is the view of the BHA and their Handicapping team that the current system is the correct one. These races still regularly boast full fields and generate vibrant betting markets, and are amongst the most widely anticipated and debated races of the year.

    That said, all these things remain open for review, most recently by the Racing Committee who concur that the judgement (and it can only be a judgement) rests in favour of the argument for the current approach (by weight) to outweigh the arguments for the alternative (by rating).
    Not sure I agree with that, would the same ruling apply to group races? As for 3yo's having the Melrose as an alternative, a 3 yo with rating above 105 could miss a run in both races.

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    a 3yo rated 105 is good enough to win Group races, why would the trainer put him in handicaps under top weight?

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    OPEN SESAME / 21 NOV 16


    The Grade 3 Betvictor Gold Cup Handicap Chase, writes Mark Olley, is the first big early closing 2m4f chase of the season and it was the usual fiercely competitive contest.

    The betting favoured the unexposed and inexperienced horses and of the first three in the market there were two novices and a thrice chase-raced second season chaser. All three under-performed although four year old Frodon was in the process of running a big race when making hash of four out which ended his chance. These big field and truly run chases are a world away from the small field novice races in which they gain experience; so it is no real surprise that with their jumping really under pressure for the first time mistakes creep in.

    That was certainly true for favourite More Of That. Jonjo O’Neill has made no secret of what he expects his former World Hurdle winner to be capable of over fences. He is certainly on an attractive handicap rating if he can translate his hurdle form to fences. I am sure that there will be more big races in him but he needs valuable experience.

    Village Vic set a decent pace, jumped boldly in the lead and came within a whisker of adding to his two handicap wins at Cheltenham last season. He remains progressive, his rating moves from 155 to 158, and that puts him on the verge of Championship class. 158 was the rating of the fifth horse in last season’s Ryanair Chase.

    Taquin du Seuil, stablemate of favourite More Of That, has proven big race form. He won the Grade 1 JLT Novice Chase at the Festival back in 2014 and finished a creditable sixth in last season’s Ryanair. Jonjo O’Neill’s gelding overcame a couple of errors to come with an irrepressible surge and lead in the final few yards. His new rating of 161 put him towards the top of an open looking 2m4f chase division following the desperately sad news of Vautour’s demise.

    Buywise, second last year, was a gallant third this time. He has finished placed in numerous valuable handicaps and is well overdue a “big one”. However, his jumping remains his Achilles heel despite it being better than it once was.

    Aso fared best of the second season chasers, only beaten around five lengths into fourth. He held every chance at the second last and I thought he may win at that point; but he made a mistake and that proved costly. This was an excellent reappearance and he looks set for a good season.

    JUVENILE TRIALS AND TROUBLES


    Saturday‘s card at Cheltenham opened with the JCB Triumph Trial Prestbury Hurdle, usually a reliable guide to early season juvenile form, writes David Dickinson.

    Autumn 2016, however, has been anything but usual. A dry October and early November has led to some relatively small field novice and juvenile events, which may sound like less work but actually make the task of finding a reliable level for the form all the harder. Usually by the time the three year olds are running in all age handicaps, their weight for age is lower (it reduces at around two pounds per month) and the deep ground puts the emphasis on strength and maturity. With a big weight for age pull and decent ground, seasoned former flat racers like Cliffs of Dover and Milrow have made been able to make hay while the sun shines.

    As for Saturday’s race, it was run on testing ground and the form is mighty hard to evaluate accurately. Two of the runners second placed Diable de Sivola and the fourth Hazamar already had published hurdle marks of 122 and 112. The distance between them at the last was around 30 lengths by the line this margin had doubled despite no easing of horses as all bar the first two in the race were barely walking by the line after the sweaty Red Hot Chilly had set a solid pace in the conditions.

    We are often criticized for being hard on beaten horses in conditions races but clearly I had to do something to the marks of the two horses already published, I raised Diable de Sivola eight to 130 (he had finished in front of 128 rated Milrow previously and dropped Hazamar by the same amount (his rating came from only one of his four races which I also dropped). As for those without ratings, I have declined to give any of them a mark for now. The history of this race suggests the first two usually turn out to be upper 130’s to lower 140’s horses and the evidence of the eye suggests that Defi du Seuil is very likely to drove up to that but the evidence is too scant at present.

    Talking of wide margins, another less than fine hour for me was in a ladies handicap at Stratford recently when there was a gap of 23 lengths between second and third on perfectly decent ground. The Novice Handicap at Prestbury on Friday offered up most of the answer to that issue when the second that day, Wildmoor Boy won this competitive contest and went up ten pounds for his trouble.

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