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Thread: The thoughts of the handicappers.

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    Senior Member Perpetual's Avatar
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    CHELTENHAM HURDLE PREVIEWS / 01 MAR 16

    We start with David Dickinson’s take on the 2m races.

    BEATEN BY A GIRL?


    I cannot remember the complexion of a championship race changing as completely in the weeks prior to its running as this one.

    The rating required to win a Stan James Champion Hurdle this century has varied from the 164 that Hors La Loi III achieved in 2002 to the 176 of Istabraq in his pomp. The race card ratings for Faugheen and Arctic Fire would have been 176 and 169 respectively; so their absence changes this from a race that might have bettered Istabraq’s figure to one that might not achieve Hor La Loi III’s.

    Annie Power (162 at her best and add the 7lb mares’ allowance) is not yet even entered but is already favourite. One facile win over a longer trip is hardly the normal preparation of a Champion Hurdle favourite. Her last run over two miles was a very impressive win. But that was more than two years ago. Presumably, she is seen as a more likely winner than her stable companion Nichols Canyon (161), the only horse to beat Faugheen.

    That form does look all wrong now although he did beat Identity Thief (159) at Leopardstown over Christmas. He won that through his stamina as the runner up looked to travel better for the majority of the race and then get outstayed. Cheltenham will surely be more of a speed test and it may be that Nichols Canyon’s optimum trip in the top grade is beyond 2m.

    Identity Thief is the one towards the front of the market who appears most capable of further improvement. His racecourse debut came in a bumper in November 2014 and he has already come a very long way in his eight race career.

    Another candidate who leaves the impression that his optimum trip may be beyond two miles is the main British hope The New One (160). He was unlucky in the Champion Hurdle of 2014. His recent Haydock win was more impressive than those he gained at the course last season. Supporters will point to the 167 he achieved in Jezki’s Champion Hurdle to suggest he can still win one.

    That comment could also apply to My Tent Or Yours (161), a place ahead of him that day but off the track for almost two years subsequently. He was 168 at his highest. He has always been tricky to get settled and surely, after all this time off, won’t he be fresher than ever?

    Overall, five year olds have a poor record in this race but there is a quartet of them on the periphery. These are Peace And Co (157), Top Notch (158) and Hargam (157) – the Nicky Henderson 123 in last year’s Triumph Hurdle – plus the much improved Old Guard (157).

    Peace And Co is probably the most talented of these and better ground would surely suit; but he looked anything but straightforward last time at Sandown.

    It may be that Camping Ground (163) will take his chance despite his only two mile form in this country coming when fourth in a handicap off 150. His current rating, gained over two and a half miles on testing ground, makes him of interest even if the trip is an issue.

    SUPREME SUPREME?


    This year’s renewal looks to be one of the best Sky Bet Supreme Novices of recent years. The entries include half a dozen horses who are already rated in the 150s. These horses are, however, housed in just two yards.

    The Willie Mullins-trained Min is not currently the highest rated but the talk all winter has been that he is the stable’s first choice. He raced with the choke out last time but still won well and the form received a boost with the subsequent success of third home Ball d’Arc. That said, Min has not yet established himself as outstanding on the racecourse in the way that his predecessors Vautour and Douvan had; and the Mullins backup squad is talented in its own right.

    Yorkhill’s Tolworth win is currently rated 156 and he saw off runaway Betfair Hurdle scorer Agrapart that day. The Mullins yard has further strings to its bow with Long Dog (154) and Bachasson (151) neither of whom will be inconvenienced by any drying of the ground.

    Nicky Henderson has two major players in the contest. Altior (155) is another who takes a good hold but the form of his Kempton win looks stronger by the day; and Buveur d’Air (154) was very impressive in two novice wins. He got the better of his stable companion when both were beaten by Barters Hill in a bumper at Newbury just over a year ago.

    WHO WILL BE TRIUMPHANT?


    The juvenile form appears unexceptional in Britain, Ireland and France. The only consistent factor is the inconsistency of the form at the top level.

    In the warmest, wettest winter on record in Britain, it is no surprise that French-bred horses have dominated many of the juvenile trials. I currently have two of them, Footpad and Connetable rated 150 as my top-rated entries.

    Zubayr (not qualified for a rating yet) firmly threw his hat into the ring when winning last Saturday’s Adonis at Kempton and has to be a contender. However, once adding in the 7lb sex allowance to fillies’ ratings, there are no less than fifteen other contenders at 140 or more in a very open year.

    All but six of these are French-bred. The exceptions are Saturday’s runner up Azzuri (who is not yet qualified for a published mark), Ivanovich Gorbatov, Leoncavallo, Jer’s Girl and the Alan King-trained pair Who Dares Wins and Gibralfaro, who are the highest rated of this sextet on 146.


    WHO’S GOT THE STAYING POWER?


    With a fortnight to go before reputations are extinguished or enhanced it seems a good time to review the principal participants in Cheltenham’s four championship races over hurdles taking place over 2m 4f or more, writes Martin Greenwood.
    The World Hurdle is the obvious place to start this section. Anyone who read my blog after Thistlecrack had hosed up at Cheltenham’s late-January fixture will already be aware of some of what follows.

    He has been a revelation since connections ramped him up to 3m last spring. He posted a solid looking 168 rating when comfortably accounting for course specialist Reve De Sivola at Ascot in December.

    Thistlecrack did not need to repeat that performance when next seen at Cheltenham as all of the horses behind him had lower ratings. However he was visually imperious, never out of third gear and he stormed up the hill. His current price reflects the fact that he has the best form on offer.

    Next in the ratings are Kilcooley, 2015 World Hurdle winner Cole Harden and 2015 Aintree winner Whisper, each of whom are rated 164. However, there appear to be questions about all three.

    Kilcooley is a very game front runner and has largely progressed since a novice. However he has not been seen since winning a hard to assess contest at Wetherby in October and has reportedly had training troubles.

    Neither Cole Harden nor Whisper have yet to run to their best this season, particularly the latter who has looked as if something is amiss. One imagines that connections of each are hoping that the better ground expected at the Festival will bring an upturn in fortunes.

    It now looks that Annie Power will be running in the Champion Hurdle which would leave Vroum Vroum Mag (rated 161 including the 7lb sex allowance) to run in either the World Hurdle or the OLBG Mares. She would look a penalty kick to continue Mullins’ dominance in the latter in the absence of Annie Power.

    If neither of the Mullins mares turn up in the World Hurdle and if Nichols Canyon (161) runs elsewhere, the fast improving Prince of Scars (159) would be next best in the ratings. He has been a revelation since joining Gordon Elliot after a break, though faster ground is an unknown.

    The following afternoon over the same distance, fledging World Hurdle hopefuls of the future line up in the Albert Bartlett Spa Novices.

    This race is often a stamina sapping affair, usually run at a good clip and the wheat and chaff can get well sorted up the hill. Sometimes the best stayer rather than the best animal comes out on top, especially if the conditions are unfestival like.

    The favourite on most lists is Barters Hill (150) who has done very little wrong, though I felt that he was unimpressive in beating Ballydine at Doncaster last time. The one thing this fellow does seem to have in abundance is stamina.

    I do have one novice stayer over the longer trips rated higher in Unowhatimeanharry (152) who has progressed massively since joining the ever more impressive Harry Fry. I took a positive view of his demolition of a Pertemps qualifier field at Exeter last time; but the fact he is among the favourites for the Pertemps Final should be taken on board.

    Trying to second guess running plans makes it difficult to pinpoint which horses will line up for this race, but Up For Review (148) will surely take part. He was disappointing in the same Doncaster race mentioned above but looked a decent prospect at Punchestown.

    Another Mullins’ horse, Gangster (147), showed he has plenty of stamina when strolling home at Fairyhouse before Christmas. Shantou Village and A Toi Phil (each 146) are next best but both appear in the betting for the three furlong shorter Neptune Investment Novices on the Wednesday. Shantou Village is a smart prospect but could not hold a candle to Yanworth (158) over course and (near as damn it) distance in January.

    Yanworth was very impressive that day, both visually and form wise, and remains the top novice at any distance. Next in the overall pecking order is Yorkhill (156), who’s Tolworth victory at Sandown has worked out extremely well. In the same ownership, Bellshill (148), has done very well this season, mainly around the mid-distance hurdle trip, though was disappointing behind Bleu Et Rouge (149) and Tombstone (147) when dropped to 18f and odds on at Leopardstown last time.

    ANNIE OR NOT?


    The Grade 1 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle has an unclear shape to it at the time of writing says Chris Nash. There are currently thirty seven horses entered but there is a supplementary entry stage on March 9th.

    Amongst the current entrants the top five on our ratings are: Annie Power (162), Vroum Vroum Mag (154), Polly Peachum (149), Smart Talk (149) and Bitofapuzzle (148). Although the Willie Mullins-trained Annie Power sets a clear standard, it now seems that she will run elsewhere.

    She has run just the once this season and that was in a Class 3 Mares hurdle at Punchestown in mid-February where she had just two opponents and started as the 1/20 fav. She largely just had a school round and won as she pleased recording a figure of 149+. Her current rating of 162 is based on form of previous years including when looking the sure-fire winner of this race last year before falling at the last.

    The horse with the second best BHA rating is Vroum Vroum Mag, given 154 by the British Handicappers. Her latest run was an impressive success in a Grade 2 hurdle at Ascot in January where she recorded that figure. She holds an alternative entry in the World Hurdle and is also in the Ryanair Chase.

    The next three in the ratings are all British trained:

    Polly Peachum (149) was last seen winning a Listed Mares hurdle at Sandown in February. She has a largely consistent profile and ran a similar figure to her current rating when second in this race last year.

    Smart Talk (149) is a progressive novice who has won four of her six hurdle races from 2m to 2m4f. The latest was a Grade 2 Mares hurdle at Doncaster in January where she recorded her career best figure of 149. She is very likely to receive an entry in the new Mares novice hurdle race at the Festival run over 2m 1f on the Thursday but entries for that haven’t yet closed.

    Bitofapuzzle has a current hurdles rating of 148. She has been novice chasing last year but her last hurdles run in April saw her win a Grade 1 novice at Fairyhouse. She was also third in this race last year.

    Finally if both Annie Power and Vroum Vroum Mag were to run elsewhere Willie Mullins would still have options towards the top of the ratings. These would be led by Morning Run who is currently rated 144 and finished four and a half lengths behind Smart Talk at Doncaster last time out.

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  3. #362
    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Thanks, Perpetual. Nice to see Bachasson getting a mensh in there. Hopefully it will sway Mullins towards running it here!
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Even the BHA are doing a preview....

    CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW – THE CHASES / 08 MAR 16


    The BHA’s Chase Handicappers preview the Championship races over Fences at this year’s Cheltenham Festival.

    GOLD CUP

    So far this season, the best performances at 3m+ have come from Cue Card (176) and Vautour (176), however the big question is, can those two replicate that level when faced with the unique demands of the course at Cheltenham?Writes Phil Smith.

    Don Cossack has performed to 170 this season, although he still retains his rating of 175 from 2014/15. However he does appear to be a more certain stayer than Vautour.

    Smad Place (169) has been a revelation since becoming a front-runner but there have been few all the way winners of the Gold Cup for all Coneygree triumphed from the front last year. Djakadam (168) looked to have bags of potential last season but so far events have conspired to prevent him from delivering this year. Don Poli (166) does nothing but stay and he will be keeping on when some of the classier animals have cried enough.

    The same came be said for Carlingford Lough (164), who needs to show he is as effective away from Leopardstown. Finally there is Road To Riches (165), who disappointed last time but is a certain stayer from last year’s race.

    Overall lots to anticipate, but nothing as yet has shown itself to be better than last year’s winner, Coneygree.


    BETWAY QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

    This year’s Champion Chase has the distinction of having three previous winners set to do battle, but it’s last season’s Champion 2m novice who heads the market, writes Graeme Smith.

    Un de Sceaux has crashed out of two of his seven starts over fences so far, but he’s been an impressive winner of the other five and was 8lb clear in the 2m Novice division last season when an outstanding winner of the Arkle – his 168 figure is the second highest performance in that race in well over a decade (Sprinter Sacre ran to 169). Any doubts about how he’d fare in open company were laid to rest when he stretched five lengths clear of Sire de Grugy in Ascot’s Clarence House in January, and that 172 performance is the best we’ve seen at the trip this season by my reckoning.

    I don’t feel Sire de Grugy quite ran to his season-best that day, appearing to tire more than might have been expected after the last. He’d run to 169 when beating Special Tiara (168) in the Tingle Creek, and actually got to 172 himself when Champion in 2014.

    That, of course, pales into insignificance when compared to Sprinter Sacre’s peak – his 188 from 2013 marks him down as the second best NH horse this century after Kauto Star. His problems have been well documented, but his followers will be clinging not only to this headline figure but also the fact he’s unbeaten in two starts this time around. An imperious performance on his return at Cheltenham has been tempered slightly by how the beaten horses have fared subsequently and that now rates at 170, which is also the figure he achieved when having to dig deep to overhaul Sire de Grugy at Kempton.

    Last year’s winner Dodging Bullets may well have taken advantage of a division that lacked a superstar, and having ended the season on 171 he’s now down to 168. He’ll have to come on plenty from the 153 he ran to in defeat on his return, but the angle is there.

    If Vautour turns up he may well start favourite – he’d be the pick on ratings at 176 – but his sights seem to be set elsewhere. Felix Yonger could well be the Willie Mullins second string. He’s won six of his last seven starts but would surely need to do more than his current figure of 162.


    RYANAIR CHASE

    Decisions on where some of the top chasers run at the Festival are often fluid, and particularly so when it comes to the Ryanair, writes Mark Olley. The top Irish stables in particular have several options and it’s very hard to pinpoint the likely field for the 2m5f highlight at this stage.

    Uxizandre (169) won the race in 2015 and the average rating of the winner over the past five seasons is 168.

    The best 2m4f performance of the season so far was Silviniaco Conti’s (169) demolition of Dynaste in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase late last month. Djakadam and Don Cossack have recorded performances of 168 (their handicap ratings are higher), but they are two of the front three in the Gold Cup betting and Don Cossack is the only one of the three mentioned to hold a Ryanair entry.

    Al Ferof has an official rating of 165. He was a couple of lengths in front of Ptit Zig (162) when the latter fell at the last in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon in December and was far from disgraced over 3m in the King George on his sole subsequent run. Dan Skelton’s gelding missed Cheltenham last year and was fifth in the Ryanair back in 2014 when he was struck-into during the race.

    Road To Riches has also recorded a performance of 165 over 2m4f this season (has an official rating of 168), dominating a Grade 2 at Clonmel in November. Third in last season’s Gold Cup, he’s another whose choice of engagement is far from certain, but he’d likely be a major contender if choosing the Ryanair option.

    Smashing (159), Vroum Vroum Mag (154, but gets a 7lb mares’ allowance) and Valseur Lido (164) have all shown a level of form to be involved if this is their chosen race, particularly as I don’t think any of them have yet reached their peak.

    As in the Champion Chase, the race will take a very different complexion if the 176-rated Vautour turns up, but recent quotes from his connections suggest he could be ‘going for Gold’.


    JLT GOLDEN MILLER CHASE

    I am really looking forward to the JLT Golden Miller Novice Chase as there are, as usual, several exciting novices around, writes Mark Olley.

    It’s hard to see any of them matching Vautour’s exceptional performance of 171 from last year, but the five year average winning rating of 162 looks achievable.

    Of the entries, No More Heroes has achieved most so far. We have a figure of 159 for his two small-field Leopardstown wins, but he is much more likely to stick to 3m and head for the RSA.

    More of That and Otago Trail just have the pick of the 2m4f form. It is hard to pin down a figure for More of That’s comfortable thirteen length defeat of Sametegal at Cheltenham in December. I have pencilled in a rating of 154, but that could be higher on both More of That’s World Hurdle success and Sametegal’s Newbury effort from last weekend.

    We also have Otago Trail rated 154 for his wide margin handicap win at Chepstow in early January. He never travelled when disappointing at Haydock later that month but clearly has serious ability. The fact he’s unproven on decent ground would be a concern, though.

    Bristol de Mai has really caught the eye in three starts since stepped up to 2m4f, culminating in an impressive win in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown last month. His rating of 153 has him there with the best Novices and I would be amazed if there isn’t plenty more to come from Nigel Twiston-Davies’ likeable gelding.

    Just behind we have Three Musketeers, Shaneshill, Vaniteux, Black Hercules (all 152) and Outlander (151) and there looks great strength in depth to this race.

    RACING POST ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY

    Douvan got the party started for Team Mullins last year when justifying hot favouritism in the Supreme and he’s going to be odds on this time around when returning for the Arkle, writes Graeme Smith. It’s all looked so easy for him in three unbeaten starts over fences, and while conditions at Cheltenham are likely to put more pressure on his jumping the truth is that he’s looked polished so far. His form to date has been discussed with the Irish handicapper and he’ll be credited with a rating of 161 going into the race.

    The best of the British Novices at this stage is Ar Mad at 155, but he’s out for the season and that leaves the Gordon Elliott-trained The Game Changer as Douvan’s nearest rival on my figures alone. He’s also 155 and there’s a fair dollop of subjectivity in that as it’s all come fairly easy to him so far. Good ground would make for a home game for him, but his last two wins have come at 2m2f and 2m4f, and it’s not easy to know how much more he’ll find under pressure.

    Clear second favourite behind Douvan in the market is Vaniteux. He’s on 152 and has found only Ar Mad too good in his three starts over fences (he failed by a neck in receipt of 2lb), and that result might have been different had he met the last on a better stride. Vaniteux has Festival form, having been third to Vautour in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, and he also recorded his best performance at Prestbury Park when second in the Greatwood Hurdle later in 2014.

    Henry de Bromhead’s Sizing John was third to Douvan in last year’s Supreme and looks set to renew rivalry. He’d impressed when winning his first two starts over fences and rates at 150, but will have to jump better than he did against his old rival last time. Similar comments apply to L’Ami Serge’s jumping. Three lengths further back from Sizing John in last year’s Supreme, he looked good in a couple of ordinary novices when starting out over fences (147) but put in a very shoddy round when turned over at 5/1-on in the Kingmaker at Warwick.

    Others worthy of a mention include Shaneshill, who was second in Douvan’s Supreme and rates at 152 on the form he showed prior to flopping behind Vaniteux at Doncaster, though he has several other options. Arzal is 151, and while he’s seen the back end of Vaniteux twice he goes enthusiastically and is getting closer. The industrious Garde La Victoire has room to improve on his figures of 151 if able to jump more fluently. And Alisier d’Irlande (148), Ttebbob (150) and Pain Au Chocolat (145) have given quite a sight at various stages when set alight in front.

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    Finally there is Road To Riches (165), who disappointed last time

    makes me laugh when i read things like this from someone who should know better..no mention of how he went stupid fractions that wasted other on pace hoss by 40 lengths,,pegasus wouldn't have won that race at that pace

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    for the lazy amongst you here's the text...

    THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2016 / 23 MAR 16


    The best four days of the year bar none – that’s a given. But what’s the significance of what happened on the undulations of Prestbury Park? Here’s our team with their update.

    THE DON


    A terrific performance from Don Cossack (177) in the Timico Gold Cup took him to the top of the current Anglo-Irish Jumps Classifications, writes Phil Smith. Owing to the ease of victory I called the four-and-a-half-length margin to Djakadam 7lb, with that one replicating his 170 performance from last year’s race. In turn he was seventeen lengths in front of Irish Cavalier (153) so the form has a solid look to it.
    This makes him an above average top staying chaser. Behind Kauto Star, Denman, Imperial Commander, Long Run and Bobs Worth but in front of Looks Like Trouble, See More Business, First Gold, Florida Pearl, Best Mate, Kicking King, Silviniaco Conti and the same owner’s War of Attrition (173). He is also 2lb clear of his own mark of 175 set last season.

    Un Temps Pour Tout (159) took himself to the top of the 3m novice chase category by virtue of a convincing victory in the Ultima Handicap, clearly benefitting from the step back up in trip. Cause of Causes (155) put himself 13lb well in for the Crabbie’s Grand National when winning the Kim Muir impressively but is only 50/50 to get a run. More will be learned from the latest forfeit stage (Tuesday 22nd March).

    BHA top rated horses won nine of the eighteen non-handicaps. All of our figures are published in the race card and included Any Currency, the 11/1 winner of the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase, run for the first time as a non-handicap.

    GIRL POWER


    Any running of the Stan James Champion Hurdle is the centrepiece of the 2m hurdlers’ season and while 2016 might not have been the greatest renewals those that lined up still delivered a fine race, writes David Dickinson.

    In Faugheen’s absence, it fell to his stable-companion Annie Power to carry the day and her slick jumping meant there were very few worries as she strode clear from the last. She received a 7lb mares’ allowance from both second and third, and I have rated all three on 162. If agreed for the Anglo- Irish Classifications at the end of the season, this would rank Annie Power as an about average Champion Hurdle winner once her sex allowance is taken into account.

    To put the 162 ratings accorded My Tent or Yours and Nichols Canyon into context, a look at previous Champion Hurdle winners since the inception of the Classifications shows that Istabraq on 176 is the highest rated Champion Hurdle winner and Hors La Loi III on 164 is the lowest. This would suggest neither of the placed horses would have won even the weakest running of the race.

    As I said in the Betfair Hurdle blog, this has been a stellar season for the 2m novices and the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle came right up to scratch, even if the Willie Mullins team was mighty hard to predict, with the Tolworth winner Yorkhill waiting for the Neptune.

    The much vaunted Min ran a fine race for the yard despite a couple of jumping errors but he was simply not quite good enough to deal with the form pick Altior, who simply doesn’t seem able to drop the bit and fairly tanked down to the start. The fact he still has so much to offer at the end of his races is most impressive, and with the Henderson yard also having the third Buveur d’Air this was the start of a memorable week for the stable.

    I went into the race with Tombstone and Charbel rated 147 and with just a head between them in fourth and fifth, I used this to rate Altior 160.

    Limini ran away with the inaugural Trull House Stud Dawn Run Mares’ Novice’ Hurdle. She earned a rating of 151, which makes her Min’s superior once her sex allowance is taken into account – no wonder there was such stable confidence behind her.

    Such has been the topsy turvy world of juvenile hurdling this winter, the JCB Triumph Hurdle fell to a horse who had finished outside the first three on his latest outing AND he started favourite! Ivanovich Gorbatov lived up to his reputation, with the better ground seemingly suiting this diminutive but smart recruit from the Flat. His rating of 154 sets him at the head of his generation but no more than an average winner of the race.

    Best of the home team was Leoncavallo, who gained the last of his five wins in the listed Wensleydale Hurdle at Wetherby at the end of October.

    The fact juvenile hurdling is changing is shown by the finish of the Fred Winter, a good one with a three way photo and two other promising challengers falling at the last. To qualify for the handicap, those five horses had collectively run seven times in Britain, twice in Ireland and fourteen times in France.

    The first horse home with purely British form was the hitherto-unbeaten Doubly Clever, who completed his hat-trick of wins at Newton Abbot on 22nd August. Does this say something about the wetness of last winter or does it question the strength of our winter juvenile form?


    SPRINTER SOARS ONCE MORE


    While we’re told the neutrals are supporting Leicester City there’ll have been a fair few who took ten minutes off to shout Sprinter Sacre home in Wednesday’s Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase, writes Graeme Smith.

    It’s rare that a clash between three former champions can be overshadowed in the build up to the extent it was with the Champion Chase was this year, but even though the talk was all about the coronation of the pretender Un de Sceaux The Black Aeroplane wasn’t having any of it.
    In a strongly-run race that was always likely to sort the men from the boys, it was all change as Sprinter Sacre moved up to and straight past the pace-setting Un de Sceaux and Special Tiara going down the hill, storming six and a half lengths clear after flying the last before coming back to them a shade up the hill.

    Whether he was tiring, idling or something else, I’m strongly of the view the six-and-a-half-length margin was the best measure of Sprinter Sacre’s superiority on the day and rounded that up to 7lb. He now tops the division at 175, a 5lb improvement on his pre-race figure. We all know that’s shy of his career-defining 188 performances from the spring of 2013 but let’s not quibble!

    Special Tiara is a likeable gelding and he retains his rating of 168, which he achieved when winning last spring’s Celebration Chase as well as when finishing second in the Tingle Creek and third here. He was probably unlucky not to hold on to second, having been edged out only on the nod.

    Un de Sceaux’s best performance comes from the Clarence House in January where he ran to 172, and I’m still happy with that figure for all he measured up only to 168 here. His connections were of the opinion a more testing surface would have seen him in a better light. Even if that does prove the case, he’s got to improve again at Punchestown if he’s to finish the season on top.

    The only notable improver further down the field was God’s Own in fourth. He’d been runner-up in Grade 1 novices at both Cheltenham and Aintree last spring, and his Arkle form behind Un de Sceaux and in front of several other improvers certainly supports this 2lb increase from his previous best of 160.

    So what about the influx of talent for next season from the current novice crop? Surely it’s all about Douvan.

    He frightened off most of the opposition in the Arkle and dismissed those who dared turn up. The way he galloped and jumped was poetry in motion for the most part, and he’d seen Vaniteux off when that one crashed out two fences from home and all but took The Game Changer out of things in the process.

    I’ve no doubt Douvan is a top-class prospect, but the gallop he set meant they didn’t really race until after the third last and as such he was unable to hand out the beatings he might otherwise have done. He beat Sizing John seven lengths when the pair were first and third in last year’s Supreme and it was the same margin between them again, albeit with Sizing John’s rider putting up 1lb overweight when he returned to weigh in. Sizing John remains on the 151 he’s been rated for more than a year, and Douvan works out as 157+, with the + denoting that he’d have won more easily under different circumstances – he travelled much more easily than anything else turning in. Douvan’s pre-race rating was 161, which is what he’d been given as a hurdler in last season’s Classification, and that’s where he’ll stay for the time being. Here’s hoping he shows us more at Punchestown.

    It was a case of estimating where Vaniteux and The Game Changer would have finished. I’ve kept Vaniteux on 152, which filters into this result two lengths ahead of Sizing John (remembering the 1lb overweight) – about where he was when he fell. The Game Changer was 155 pre-race but that came from small-field races in Ireland. He’d just jumped upsides Sizing John when hampered, and while there’s a fair dollop of estimation here I felt a reducing his figure to 151 (behind Vaniteux) was fair for the time being.


    TIZZ THE SEASON


    What an incredible performance from Thistlecrack in The World Hurdle, writes Martin Greenwood. I’d been one of plenty to wax lyrical about his chances leading up to the race, and by golly he was as impressive as one could have wished for.

    There was no messing about and one by one they dropped away, including big Festival winners from 2015, Cole Harden and Whisper, who have been very disappointing this season. Even if they were at their very best it would be hard to imagine them holding a candle to Thistlecrack, who simply powered clear from Alpha des Obeaux (now 165), who in turn demolished the rest of the field and is a good quality stayer in his own right after this.

    Now to the crux of the matter, just how good is Thistlecrack? Since the start of the Anglo-Irish Classification in 1999/2000, before my time at the BHB/BHA, the best staying hurdlers have ranged from 163 to 174 and included the likes of Baracouda (172), Inglis Drever (172) and the mighty Big Bucks (174 on 5 occasions, though ironically he was usually less impressive in the World Hurdle than on other courses). Where do I fit Thistlecrack into this list of hurdling titans?

    The five-year standards are suggesting an average of 173 and a median of 171 for the winner, though that doesn’t include any extra added for ease of victory, and a time comparison with the Pertemps Handicap suggests a higher figure of 178. Of course the season is far from over with Aintree and Punchestown looming, so any short term decision can be reviewed after those Festivals and at our annual Anglo-Irish meeting in early May. I was so visually impressed with Thistlecrack that I feel he deserves to be above both Baracouda and Inglis Drever, but have not yet propelled him beyond Big Bucks, whom I am happy to share the 174.

    What about potential rivals for Thistlecrack in 2016/17? The Neptune Investment Management Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle featured two of the best pre-Festival novices of the season in Yanworth (158) and Yorkhill (156), and in a messy sort of race, they both came out of it with their lofty reputations more or less intact. With the pace steadying there was a host of chances two out, and I am sure this is the main reason why the pair pulled only seven lengths clear of the third. While Yorkhill, whose Tolworth Hurdle win at Sandown had been well advertised by subsequent efforts of those he beat, got a dream run on the inner and quickened into a race-winning lead, Yanworth, who raced wide throughout and made a mistake three out, was forced even wider turning in and found himself around four lengths down at the last. A combination of Yorkhill dossing and Yanworth’s stamina kicking in reduced that margin to under two lengths at the line. The five-year standards suggest an average winner of 152, and with Its’afreebee and Welsh Shadow both posting a personal best, it is hard to get the overall standard of the race much higher at this point. Given the reasons explained above however, I am keen to suggest the front two are better than the official margin, and Yorkhill remains on 156. Given Yanworth can be possibly counted a bit unlucky not to have made more of a fist of it, I have pulled him back a couple to share the same rating in the short term. However it would be wrong of me to suggest he would have won if everything fell into place.

    The Albert Bartlett Spa Novices’ Hurdle two days later didn’t feature quite the quality of the Neptune but, nevertheless, it takes a tough sort to come out on top in a stamina-sapping event and in Unowhatimeanharry they don’t come much tougher. I had mentioned in my pre-Festival blog that he was my top rated staying novice of the season (152) and was amazed when he was as high as 20/1 in the week leading up to the race. His price probably reflected the fact that most of his wins ‘only’ came in handicap company, but in my experience good quality handicap form is often as solid as it gets, and the way he walloped a decent field in a Pertemps qualifier at Exeter off 138 seemed to me a high-class effort for a novice. It’s not as though there was any other outstanding candidates in the field, with Barters Hill (150) heading the rest on ratings.

    Unowhatimeanharry is always held up and well handled by Noel Fehily, and those tactics were well suited to the way the race panned out at Cheltenham. There was no let up from the pacesetters, which included Barters Hill and Champers On Ice (personal best of 148), both of whom did very well in the circumstances. However Fehily was quietly stalking the pace. Even though he wasn’t swinging away on the bridle you just knew he would find plenty, a trait he had shown all season, and sure enough he doggedly fought off the attentions of the fast-finishing Fagan (now 149), who also looks a thorough stayer. An average winner of this race is around the 150 mark, and this year’s renewal looks about right based on the winner performing to 151, though his pre-race rating remains, as does that of Barters Hill.

    A quick note on my two handicaps, which both went to Irish-trained horses. The Coral Cup was a bunched finish but in truth the ex-British-trained Diamond King was impressive, extracting himself from a pocket with a good turn of foot and value more than the winning distance. His rating is now 158 from 149. There was much more fortune for the Irish in the Pertemps, because surely If In Doubt would have won but for being hampered and stumbling, presenting the prize to Mall Dini, who is now 143 from 139.


    TOUR DE FORCE


    The Grade 1 Ryanair Festival Trophy was a real puzzle in the days/weeks leading up to the race but that all changed when Vautour was rerouted, writes Mark Olley. From being a wide open race, we now had an odds-on favourite who was 11lb clear of his rivals on BHA official ratings. Plenty has been written about the circumstances of the above, but from my point of view I was delighted to see a real star in the race.
    There were quotes prior to the race that Vautour was only 90% right, but given what I watched in the race itself I can’t believe that was true. When he landed the Golden Miller Novice at the meeting last year it was a performance that really took my breath away. That didn’t happen this time but he was certainly impressive in dismantling a smart field. Last year he beat Valseur Lido by fifteen lengths, this year it wasn’t quite so impressive at six lengths, albeit value for further.

    The race was not easy to level from a ratings point of view with horses like Gilgamboa (156) and Taquin du Seuil (157) finishing close to the placed horses, but after a discussion with the Irish Head Handicapper Noel O’Brien (the first three finishers were all Irish trained) we came up with the following:

    Valseur Lido was a likely looking winner when unseating at the last at Leopardstown last month and we have him repeating that provisional figure of 162. We have the same 162 figure for Road To Riches, although his official would be slightly higher with last season’s form in mind.

    Al Ferof came into the race rated 165, but that is a figure the eleven-year-old has carried over from last season. We have him running to 162 when winning the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase by a wide margin at Huntingdon in December and that will be his new rating.

    Gilgamboa moves up 3lb to a new rating of 159.

    The above figures fit in pretty well with the race standards for the placed horses – 163 for the second and 162 for the third.

    All of the above means a figure of 173 for Vautour, after calling the six length winning margin 11lb. This is 3lb below the figure he achieved when a thrilling second to Cue Card in the King George at Christmas, but then Cue Card is a stronger rival than any he met here. He also beat Al Ferof by thirteen lengths at Kempton, but just under eight lengths here.

    The Grade 1 JLT Golden Miller Novices’ Chase was as open a contest as you care to see. There was only 2lb between the top five rated horses on BHA ratings pre-race and the betting settled on three 4/1 co-favourites.

    The front-running Bristol de Mai took them along at a fair pace and although he made some spectacular leaps he also made some errors. L’Ami Serge took it up three from home and for a brief moment before the last looked the likely winner, but he was not as strong a stayer as the first two home and this left Black Hercules to power home from a rallying Bristol de Mai. Both Outlander and Garde La Victoire fell when still in with a chance and I’m sure one, or both, would have played some part in the finish.

    From a ratings point of view Black Hercules moves from 152 to 158, while Bristol de Mai is 154, L’Ami Serge 153 (up 5lb from 148) and Three Musketeers unchanged on 152.

    Benefficient on 157 is the lowest rated of the past six winners and with Taquin du Seuil (159 in 2014) and Noble Prince (160 in 2011) there is not much to choose between them all. They all certainly fall some way short of the spectacular 171 achieved by Vautour last year.

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    Senior Member Euronymous's Avatar
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    War of Attrition was given 173 by OR? That surprises me.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I know it's only a blog, but surely the BHA has someone who can proof-read these things before they are made public?

    The sentence structure and grammar are awful in places.

    That aside, there are a number of assessments in there with which I don't agree. (It doesn't have to be "is", by the way, for any pedant out there on the alert )
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    IT’S NOT ALL ABOUT THE NATIONAL / 12 APR 16


    There’s more to Aintree than just the Grand National and from a host of top-class races there’s plenty for our team discuss. We lead off with the Champion Hurdler.


    POWER PLAY



    The feature race on day one of the Aintree festival was the Grade 1 Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle run over 2m4f, writesChris Nash. A field of just six went to post but amongst them were the first four from the Champion Hurdle twenty-three days earlier.


    Annie Power had won that race by four lengths from My Tent Or Yours, with Nichols Canyon a further head behind in third. She started at odds-on to repeat the feat at Aintree and fully justified her short price with an authoritative display.


    The first three were the same as at Cheltenham but the margins were completely different – she won by eighteen lengths and there was a further nine lengths back to third. It would be impossible to believe that either My Tent Or Yours or Nichols Canyon had matched their figures from the Champion Hurdle here but it would probably be fair to assume that Annie Power might have surpassed her Cheltenham effort.


    The margins between them at the line make it almost impossible to be definitive, but having run to 162 when winning at Cheltenham I have Annie Power running to 166 here, making it a career best effort – the bare fact that she won a Grade 1 race by eighteen lengths makes this a plausible suggestion. The second and third had recorded figures of 162 at Cheltenham but I have both running lower here with potential excuses – My Tent Or Yours (155) looked a non-stayer over this longer trip and Nichols Canyon (146) was slightly distressed post-race. Obviously Annie Power receives the 7lb mares allowance so in terms of the “pecking order” she slots in behind Faugheen in the 2m division and Thistlecrack in the 3m division but this would rank as the leading 2m4f hurdle performance of this jumps season.


    On Saturday the Grade 1 EZ Trader Mersey Novices Hurdle was run over the same 2m4f trip. The favourite for the race was Yorkhill who arrived with a rating of 156 having beaten Yanworth in the Neptune at Cheltenham. He started as the odds-on favourite but had to work harder than that might suggest having refused to settle, idling when he should have been putting the race to bed too. He eventually won by two and a quarter lengths from Le Prezien, with the rock solid Flying Angel a further length and a half back in third.


    Flying Angel had won the Imperial Cup at Sandown and been placed in the Martin Pipe Hurdle at Cheltenham – he arrived rated 144 and looks a decent guide to the form. Framing the race around him has Yorkhill running to a figure of 149 but, given his run style through this race, I’m happy he can be rated higher than his bare figure and his post-Cheltenham rating of 156 will remain in place. From what we saw on Saturday it is likely a bigger field, a stronger pace and a later arrival at the front of the race will see Yorkhill in a better light. He remains unbeaten (two bumpers and four hurdle races) and is obviously a horse of great potential. Le Prezien has a nicely progressive profile and this effort equates to another career best – he will be rated 146.


    OPTIC NERVE



    The Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle rarely has the strength in depth of the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham but the winner is usually on a par, writes Martin Greenwood.


    Only the Mullins’ pair of Balko des Flo and Gangster ran in both races, the former doing much the better of them by finishing fourth. He was beaten nearly sixteen lengths, and I have him performing roughly the same in both races.


    Another stable companion, Bellshill, fared much better and probably should have won, cruising into the race but crucially let down by his jumping over the last two flights and then idling. This allowed Ballyoptic to maintain his unbeaten record over hurdles, regaining the lead after the runner-up’s antics and staying on very strongly with the aid of the stand rail.


    Ballyoptic had won only minor races at Ffos Las and Uttoxeter previously and this represented easily his best effort. His new rating is an up to standard 149, the same as Bellshill (from 146), the pair finishing well clear of the remainder.


    The next day saw the mighty Thistlecrack maintain his 100% seasonal record by smashing inferior opponents to bits in the Liverpool Stayers’ Hurdle. Adopting a change of tactics, Thistlecrack made every yard and jumped immaculately before strolling away without coming off the bridle. This result told us nothing new about him in terms of ability but given an injury free year he will surely take all the beating in every staying race he contests next season…..Thistlecrack is certainly a true Champion!


    NICKY ENJOYS AINTREE AIR



    For the fourth time in five seasons, the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle went to a member of the Nicky Henderson team who had previously made the frame in Cheltenham’s Supreme, writes David Dickinson.


    This year it was the turn of Prestbury third Buveur d’Air to stand in as a late replacement for his stable companion Altior and he battled to a hard earned success over Supreme eighth Petite Mouchoir, who unexpectedly came out best of the Willie Mullins trio with Limini disappointing. I have raised Buveur d’Air’s rating 1lb to 153.


    Every once in a while a race comes along that is impossible to assess using the usual principles of handicapping. Step forward Apple’s Jade.


    In winning the meeting’s Grade 1 juvenile event, the Betfred Anniversary Hurdle, by no less than forty-one lengths (she was eased down, otherwise it would have been more) she’s set the assessors on both sides of the water, a real poser. There is no right answer and whatever decision we come to will, no doubt, be criticised.


    The remaining quintet of finishers raced to the line in competition for the places with just ten lengths separating the five of them. It was easy to see that the Triumph winner Ivanovich Gorbatov failed to reproduce his Cheltenham running on the slower ground but what of the other four, who all went into Thursday’s race with form rateable at or very close to 140.


    For instance, taking the run of Fred Winter-winner Diego du Charmil at face value (forty-six lengths behind Apple’s Jade giving her the sex allowance of 7lb) would give Apple’s Jade a rating of 179, using our usual 1lb a length in 2m races. This is clearly preposterous, good as Apple’s Jade surely is.

    There were only two hurdle races on the Thursday when the track was officially slower than the chase course. It did appear to me that this race was run at such a tempo that stamina in the conditions became the only issue.

    I went back to the races won by Annie Power and Apple’s Jade the year before, then won by Jezki and All Yours. The time comparison suggests that Apple’s Jade is roughly three seconds quicker than All Yours, carrying 7lb less. This would get her a figure around 153.


    This is possible historically given that the outstanding juveniles of recent years are Katchit 159 and Our Conor 161. Given the sex allowance, this would place Apple’s Jade between the two.
    Happily it appears very likely that she will reappear at Punchestown, where hopefully a more sensibly run race might give us a more reliable guide.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Perpetual View Post
    For instance, taking the run of Fred Winter-winner Diego du Charmil at face value (forty-six lengths behind Apple’s Jade giving her the sex allowance of 7lb) would give Apple’s Jade a rating of 179, using our usual 1lb a length in 2m races. This is clearly preposterous, good as Apple’s Jade surely is.

    There were only two hurdle races on the Thursday when the track was officially slower than the chase course. It did appear to me that this race was run at such a tempo that stamina in the conditions became the only issue.

    I went back to the races won by Annie Power and Apple’s Jade the year before, then won by Jezki and All Yours. The time comparison suggests that Apple’s Jade is roughly three seconds quicker than All Yours, carrying 7lb less. This would get her a figure around 153.


    This is possible historically given that the outstanding juveniles of recent years are Katchit 159 and Our Conor 161. Given the sex allowance, this would place Apple’s Jade between the two.
    Happily it appears very likely that she will reappear at Punchestown, where hopefully a more sensibly run race might give us a more reliable guide.
    Interesting that two different approaches can arrive at similar conclusions.

    From my own review:
    Apples Jade was visually deeply impressive in the juvenile hurdle but on the clock was 20lbs slower than Annie Power before any wfa consideration. With no other hurdle race with which to make any meaningful comparison I’m working on the assumption that everything bar the two winners simply failed to turn up. Assuming Annie Power ran to her previous career best [on my figures] of 165, it puts Apple’s Jade on 145 plus 7 for wfa. It means a male opponent would need to be 160+ to beat her.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    I see the Irish handicapper has put Rule Of The World up by 8lbs

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    CLASSIC CREDENTIALS / 19 APR 16

    There was something for everyone last week with the revamped three-day Craven meeting kicking off a big week of classic trials, and the Scottish Grand National fixture for those who prefer their jumping. This week’s bulletin is mainly Flat driven, but there’s an overall round-up from Ayr tagged on.


    WEATHERING THE STORM


    You have to go back to 2004 and Haafhd to find the last horse to follow up victory in the Novae Bloodstock Insurance Craven Stakes with success in the 2000 Guineas but Ed Walker’s Stormy Antarctic put himself firmly on course for a crack the season’s first Classic with a convincing success at Newmarket on Thursday, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

    Rated 112 at the end of his juvenile career, he went into the race 2lb clear of hot favourite Foundation and duly confirmed that superiority with a comfortable three-and-a-half-length beating of that rival.

    I have long since learnt to treat “trials” form with a degree of caution and, whilst mathematically I could have gone higher, I have moved Stormy Antarctic up to a new mark of 114. Using runner-up Foundation (pre-race 110), third-placed Shogun (108) or fourth-placed Tony Curtis (106) as a guide would give a figure at least 1lb higher. My reasons for taking a more reserved view include the fact the race was run in driving rain following closely on the heels of a thunder storm, the ground was getting softer by the minute and there’s always a doubt about relative fitness levels at this point in the season.

    In terms of recent winning performances in the Craven, this places him some way behind top quality milers Toronado (121 in 2013) and Haafhd (120) but in advance of last year’s winner Kool Kompany (110), Adagio (110 in 2007), Killybegs (109 in 2006), Democratic Deficit (109 in 2005) and Native Khan (108 in 2011) – whilst his performance is considered on a par with Trumpet Major’s 114 in 2012.

    It remains to be seen if he will prove as effective on a quicker surface, but if he can reproduce or improve on Thursday’s effort come April 30th he has every chance of making the frame, as on nine occasions since the turn of the century a performance of 114 has been good enough to grab a place in the first three!


    ON TRIAL


    Last year the two-year-old champions were definitely above average, writes Matthew Tester. Air Force Blue was top colt at 124 and Minding top filly at 120, and each is favourite for their respective Guineas. So did the classic trials change anything?

    Ibn Malik’s smooth win in the CSP European Free Handicap paid a real compliment to Emotionless, who beat him easily in the Champagne Stakes last year before flopping in the Dewhurst when found to be suffering from a bone chip in his knee. Ibn Malik goes up 5lb to 112 but is not in the Guineas.

    Tasleet won the Greenham, run at Chelmsford, but I’m not sure that form will have much of a bearing on the 2000 Guineas. His figure remains at 110.

    The filly Nathra was 110 before the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn and had only to run to that level to win. She has four and a half lengths to find with Minding from last year’s Fillies’ Mile.

    In the Fred Darling Stakes Marenko did not have to improve on her 105 to win once you accept that Besharah and Katie’s Diamond failed to live up to their best two-year-old form. My impression last year was that Minding was particularly suited to easy ground. It is possible that she would not produce a 120 performance on quick ground but only one horse is rated within 10lb of her.

    Lumiere is second favourite and rated 116 last year from her form at 6f. She has a ton of speed but her pedigree suggests 1m this year could be okay. The 4lb difference between Minding and Lumiere over 1m equates to about two lengths, but on decent ground there are six lengths to a second so we are only talking about one third of a second to bridge the gap. My feeling is that Minding will have to run to her best; but that the classic trials themselves did not much change the picture we had a week ago.


    HAPPY MEMORIES


    Even though the main focus on the Flat this past week has been the classic trials the domestic sprinting demesne also stepped up a gear, with the division’s first pattern race of this season in Britain in the shape of the Group 3 6f Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes, writes Stewart Copeland.

    Looking at the race beforehand, the eleven-strong field boasted plenty of strength in depth for the grade of race, with the field headed on the ratings by the four-year-old gelding Magical Memory, trained by Charles Hills. A most progressive and fruitful campaign last year, which included a prestigious handicap success in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood, culminated with an excellent third to Twilight Son in the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock, earning him his current rating of 114.

    Soon travelling strongly just behind the pace, Magical Memory could be called the winner some way out, quickening clear a furlong out before tiring a shade late on to win by a neck and the same from fellow four-year-olds Tupi and Mattmu.

    In terms of strength in depth, since the Abernant became a Group 3 race in 2013 the average rating of the first four home has been 105. However this year’s renewal based on the pre-race ratings of the four came out at 110/111. Taking that in to account, I eventually settled on a figure of 110 for Magical Memory, though a case could be made for a shade higher. Even though this is slightly below the level he achieved at Haydock the taking style of his win suggests he’s every bit as good as last year, and given his overall progressive profile there may even be more to come.

    As for the placed horses, Tupi has been campaigned over 7f/1m prior to this but coped fine with the drop in trip, running to a figure of 109, a shade below his peak figure of 111 last year. On the pick of his form the 113-rated Mattmu looked the main danger to Magical Memory and he ran as if retaining all his ability with a highly creditable third, returning a figure of 108. No doubt he will attempt to go one better in next month’s Duke of York Stakes on the Knavesmire after finishing runner-up last year. That race also seems on the agenda for Magical Memory, and looking at a strong initial entry that includes the first two from the Sprint Cup (Twilight Son and Strath Burn) and the Nunthorpe heroine Mecca’s Angel, it’s a race eagerly anticipated already.


    FORM WORTH FOLLOWING


    The victory of Vicente in Saturday’s Coral Scottish Grand National was yet another piece of form which confirmed the strength of the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham, writes Phil Smith. In a month since that race, Native River has come out and won a Grade 1 at Aintree, Vicente and Definitly Red have both won good-quality handicaps at Ayr and Waldorf Salad has also won a handicap at Chepstow.

    As a result I have raised the level of the National Hunt Chase by 3lb so that Minella Rocco (155) keeps a higher rating than Native River (154) and Vicente (151).

    On Friday at Ayr there were 6 handicaps. They were 0-120, 0-130, 0-130, 0-130, 0-145 and an open handicap. Northern and Scottish trained horses won 5 out of the 6 contests from 31 runners at a strike rate of 16%. The rest of the country and Ireland won 1 race from 16 runners at a strike rate of 6%.

    On Saturday there were also 6 handicaps. They were 0-130, 0-145, 0-150 and three open handicaps. Clearly contests for a much higher calibre of horse. Northern and Scottish trained horses won none of them from 21 runners. The rest of Britain and Ireland won all 6 from 53 runners.

    Over the two days of the meeting, Scotland and the North won 5 handicaps from 52 runners at a strike rate of 9.6%. The rest of Britain and Ireland won 7 handicaps from 69 runners at a strike rate of 10.1%. Pretty close to parity in strike rate but a world of difference in quality.

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  17. #373
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    "On Friday at Ayr there were 6 handicaps... On Saturday there were also 6 handicaps".

    What lousy programming.

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    Not if you like handicaps
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    I see the Irish handicapper has put Rule Of The World up by 8lbs

    Must have had a rethink, put him up a further 2lbs. Although he was rated 3lbs lower by the Irish handicapper than his rating in Britain when he ran in National, we don't know what his new rating is in Britain as it's a secret.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dante View Post
    we don't know what his new rating is in Britain as it's a secret.
    I think RTW's rating will have been arrived at jointly between Phil Smith and his Irish counterpart, almost certainly the adjusted one.

    The Last Samuri was already 12lbs well in and failed by six lengths to win. If RTW has only gone up 10lbs the handicapper is assuming TLS hasn't quite run to form, possibly on lines with Vics Canvas.

    Either way, RTW will need to improve another 7lbs to win a top handicap so iffy conditions races look like his best option.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    SPRINTER BESTS THE “ROPEY” SCEAUX


    The Bet365 Celebration Chase was not quite the showdown that Un de Sceaux’s fans were hoping for writes Graeme Smith. But it provided a magnificent season sign off for Sprinter Sacre as he completed his revival unbeaten in four races.

    The fifteen-length winning distance potentially opened the door to a rating closer to Sprinter’s 188 pomp. However, I do not feel that the margin was a reliable guide. Un de Sceaux spoiled his chances with a ragged round of jumping and Dodging Bullets and Sire de Grugy patently ran below their best. It looked very much a case of ‘race on’ approaching the Pond Fence only for Un de Sceaux to blunder his chance away.

    Some may feel I have been harsh to Sprinter Sacre but I am firmly of the opinion his Champion Chase form is the most reliable guide to his current level. He remains top of the class at 175. I have not crowned him as the divisional champion just yet though as, while the British season has drawn to a close, Punchestown still counts towards the end-of-season Anglo-Irish Classification. I see that Vautour is dropping to the minimum trip in a bid to stake his claim.

    So what of Un de Sceaux? He’s proved himself a top-class 2m chaser stepping out of novice company this season. This is regardless of the fact he has found an outstanding rival too strong in the two races that have mattered most. His jumping has been a niggling doubt in the past and this was a ropey display. Even as he forced an unforgiving gallop he was losing ground to the also-prominent Sire de Grugy at numerous obstacles and made two notably hefty mistakes. Cheltenham tells us Sprinter Sacre would likely have proved too strong even had Un de Sceaux avoided his howling error three from home. Judging by the way the two were going you could not be absolutely sure.

    Sire de Grugy staged his own revival in deep winter, getting the better of Special Tiara in the Tingle Creek. While he showed that his enthusiasm still burns bright with positive tactics readopted, the feeling is that he is vulnerable against the very best at 2m nowadays. It was no surprise that Gary Moore was quoted that he might try longer distances next season. Bear in mind the stable also houses the exciting and unexposed pair of Traffic Fluide and Ar Mad for these contests.

    Longer distances also seem the order of the day for Dodging Bullets. Things haven’t gone his way this time around and his rating is now down to 163. He finished 2014/15 rated 171. While the door looks to be closing on his 2m career they do say that another one often opens.

    THE TRIALS OF LIFE


    With the Guineas trials done and dusted in readiness for the real thing at Newmarket this weekend, last week’s trials had our thoughts turned to the first weekend in June and the possible unearthing of genuine Derby and Oaks candidates writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

    Epsom itself set the ball rolling with the Investec Derby Trial on Wednesday and it was the only filly in the contest who came out on top. So Mi Dar’s only previous appearance had seen her win a Windsor maiden last October when putting up a performance somewhere in the low 80s – she stepped up on that when posting a figure of 101 in beating Humphrey Bogart (104) by a neck despite Dettori losing his whip a furlong and a half out, with Viren’s Army (98) back in 3rd. The latter looks to provide a solid guide to the level of the race having raced six times as juvenile including winning on heavy and over the course at Epsom.

    John Gosden’s filly will have to step up again if she is to make an impression in the Oaks but she is progressive and has proved her ability to handle the track.

    One of the winter’s talking horses – the beautifully bred Midterm – made his reappearance in the BET365 Classic Trial at Sandown on Friday and he let nobody down. He too had shown form around the low/mid 80s when winning his only previous start, a Newbury maiden, as a juvenile. He too stepped up markedly on that when beating Algometer a length and a half with eight lengths and more back to the rest.

    It is not an easy race on which to confidently put a figure; but a time comparison with my figures for the good quality 3yo handicap over course and distance later on the card suggests a performance of around 112. This fits relatively neatly with the experienced Palawan (98 pre-race) who finished fourth. As such I have published Midterm at 112 and runner-up Algometer at 109. Midterm is a son of Galileo who can do nothing but improve with experience and probably over a longer trip. I will be disappointed if 112 proves the limit of his ability by the end of the season.

    Sandown also staged a pair of good quality older horse Group races on Friday. Clive Cox’s My Dream Boat proved progressive last year over 7f and 1m. He ended 2015 with a mark of 111 and took another step forward when a late surge between horses saw him take the BET365 Gordon Richards Stakes over 10f.

    Western Hymn was returning from a near ten months absence and was possibly not ideally suited by the cut underfoot. Probably he has not reproduced his 2015 figure of 117. There are also possible question marks over Ayrad (3rd -112) and Tullius (5th – 111) in terms of trip and current form. So fourth placed Master Carpenter (108) looks the safest bet at present in terms to a guide; and he brings My Dream Boat out at 117. Soft ground brings out the best in the 4yo so maybe a return trip to France might be on the agenda at some point?

    Toormore, a stalwart of the mile division over the last couple of years, bounced right back to his best with a gutsy victory in the BET365 Mile. After a 117 performance in chasing home stable companion Night of Thunder in last year’s Al Shaqab Lockinge at Newbury, Richard Hannon’s colt was never quite the same again. He settled down to being a 114 performer for the rest of the year. Giving weight away on Friday, I believe he bounced back to the same level (119) as when third in the 2014 Qipco QEII at Ascot behind Charm Spirit and Night of Thunder. The race has a solid look to it with both Dutch Connection (2nd) and Breton Rock (3rd) running to within a pound of their respective 116 and 113 marks. It will be interesting to see whether Toormore can maintain that level once he gets back in to Group 1 company. Surely return trips to the Lockinge and the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot are on the cards.

    THE GUESSING GAME OF THE GUINEAS


    The last eight runnings of the Qipco 2000 Guineas have included winners at 40/1, 33/1 and 25/1 writes Matthew Tester. This year’s favourite is last year’s champion 2yo Air Force Blue at around 4/6. We are hoping to see the same level of performance as a 3yo that he showed in winning three Group 1 races as a 2yo. But those long odds winners show that nothing can be taken for granted.

    The current ratings for the first five in the betting are: 124 Air Force Blue, 114 Stormy Antarctic, 116 Massaat, 117 Buratino and 116 Marcel. Bear in mind that one second over a mile is typically reckoned to be worth twelve pounds and you can see that it is not as clear-cut as the numbers might suggest.

    Three fillies are in the betting in single figures for the Qipco 1000 Guineas. Their ratings are 120 Minding, 116 Lumiere and 113 Ballydoyle.

    Neither Minding nor Air Force Blue has raced since October. To be worth the same ratings in May the Weight For Age scale says that they will each have had to make up to 13lb improvement just through physical maturing. No wonder there have been so many winning long shots.

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    GOLD IS GOOD / 03 MAY 16

    BRITISH-TRAINED HORSES DO WELL IN PUNCHESTOWN HANDICAPS


    A great deal is written about differences in jump handicap ratings in Britain and Ireland writes Head of HandicappingPhil Smith. This is especially after major festivals when one country has had plenty of winners and the other has struggled. The reality is that our ratings are closer to parity than they have ever been.


    For the second time in three years, British-based trainers had three winners in the handicaps held at the Punchestown Festival. Irish Cavalier, Cup Final and Fletcher’s Flyer all won in good tight finishes. But more importantly to Irish Handicapper Noel O’Brien and myself, there were four other British trained horses that were in the first four.


    Because we are dealing with a relatively small sample size it is much fairer to look at the number of placed horses over a reasonably long period of time. In all of the Punchestown Festivals this decade there have been 65 handicaps. In that time there have been 28 British-trained horses placed (first four) from 126 runners giving a strike rate of 22.2%. Irish-trained horses have provided 232 placed horses from 1164 runners at a percentage of 19.9%. The overall average is 20.2%. Pretty close I am sure you will agree.


    Whenever a UK horse wins a handicap in Ireland or vice versa, there is always a knee-jerk reaction claiming that the relevant domestic Handicapper has somehow got it wrong and has under assessed the winner. I had it this year when Rule The World won the Crabbie’s Grand National. The critics quickly overlooked that he was the first Irish trained winner of the race since 2007!


    GOLD IS GOOD

    As Leicester City has so gloriously proved in recent months, sometimes sport just does not follow the expected script writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill. Saturday’s Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket was racing’s case in point.


    We gathered to see what was supposed to be the next step to equine greatness for Air Force Blue but instead saw the emergence of a new star under the guidance of Frankie Dettori, one of the leading jockeys of his generation.


    Galileo Gold did little wrong as a 2 year old winning three of his first four starts including the Group 2 Qatar Vintage Stakes at Goodwood where he posted a rating of 107. He then finished a close third in the Grand Criterium at Longchamp from which he gained his end of season rating of 110. He left that form well behind on Saturday in a race that is relatively easy to rate at this stage.


    Runner-up Massaat (pre-race 116) represented top quality 2 year old form with his second in the Dewhurst to Air Force Blue and I see no obvious reason why he should not have replicated that on Saturday. Whilst the official winning distance was a length and a half, I felt that it was a “long looking” length and a half. Galileo Gold had been two lengths clear before Dettori started to celebrate as the line approached and eased down a little. As such I have called the winning margin 4lb and have published the Hugo Palmer-trained colt with a new mark of 120 this week. This level is given further solidity by the 113 rated Ribchester finishing another two lengths away in third and running to 112.


    In historical terms 120 represents a solid but not outstanding Guineas winning performance. In seventeen runnings of the race since the turn of the century nine winning performances (53%) have been rated between 120 and 122. His effort is considered superior to those of Golan (118 in 2001), Refuse To Bend (116 in 2003), Footstepsinthesand (116 in 2005) and Camelot (119 in 2012).


    I am not keen to go any higher at the present time as Air Vice Marshall (fourth: pre-race 107), Kentuckyconnection (fifth: 90) and Zonderland (sixth: 106) have already taken a rise in their ratings to 111, 108 and 107 respectively. I am happy with my current level given their proximity. Considering that it was Galileo Gold’s first run for the best part of seven months and the way the race panned out for him (bit keen at the sharp end throughout) I would hope that he would improve on this performance as the season progresses. I will be a little disappointed if 120 proves the limit of his abilty come the end of the campaign.


    But what of Air Force Blue? It is obvious that, in finishing twelfth of the thirteen runners, he did not run within two stone of his best and it will be back to the drawing board for the O’Brien team. Let us not forget that he beat Massaat by a length and three quarters more in winning the Dewhurst than Galileo Gold did in the Guineas. So, if he could return to that level of performance, he could still be a major player in the summer’s top mile races.


    Whilst the Coolmore operation suffered a reversal in the 2000 Guineas, they came back all guns blazing with 1-2-3 in Sunday’s Qipco 1000 Guineas.


    Minding was last season’s Champion 2yo filly with a rating of 120 and she duly reaffirmed her position at the head of that particular pecking order with an impressive three and a half length victory. Given that the race took place on Sunday and therefore falls into the current racing week as far as the handicapping timetable is concerned, I have yet to finalise my figures for the race. I will obviously need to have a discussion with Turf Club handicapper Garry O’Gorman given the Irish dominance; but again it looks a relatively easy race to put figures on at this stage.


    Third placed Alice Springs went into the race rated 111 and if she is used as the bench mark then Minding has run to 119+ and runner-up Ballydoyle (pre-race 113) to 112+. This would mean slight rises for fourth placed Fireglow (pre-race 105) and seventh placed Mix and Mingle (100) but I would have no problems with that.

    Whatever the final figure, this was one of the outstanding 1000 Guineas performances of recent years. Only Finsceal Beo’s winning mark of 119 in 2007 bears comparison since the turn of the century with all other winning performances falling 2lb and more below the O’Brien filly.

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    A bit late this one...


    EPSOM A TRICKY TEST FOR HORSES AND ASSESSORS / 08 JUN 16

    FIRST PAST THE POSTPONED

    Phil Smith kicks us off with his views from the Derby meeting.

    I had three Group 1 races at Epsom over the weekend all over 12 furlongs; and in their own different ways each was tricky to assess. I cannot be confident that I have the ratings as accurate as I would like and in both the Derby and the Oaks there is quite a discrepancy among the International Handicappers.

    At first sight Postponed’s victory in the Coronation Cup was scintillating and my initial thought was that it had to be his best ever performance, surpassing his run in the Dubai Sheema Classic. However the relatively close proximity of the pacemaker Roseburg concerned me in what was a very slowly run race. The time was nearly two seconds slower than the handicap over the same distance later on the card.

    Although visually Postponed was stunning, the fact that Roseburg comes out with a higher performance than Found made me cautious. I searched for reasons why Roseburg might have improved by 7lb. Perhaps being off the track for nine months might have been a factor; perhaps the change of trainer; perhaps Roseburg has matured; perhaps because he had been looked after so well by his previous trainer or perhaps from being gelded. I convinced myself that if I treated the winning distance as if by six lengths (allowing for ease of victory) then Roseburg could be 113. Found ran below her best on 112 compared with 120 pre-race. Then Postponed would have replicated his rating from Dubai. So far all of the International Handicappers agree with my assessment (thankfully).

    Luckily I do not have to publish figures for Minding and Harzand and there is little International agreement on our system so far. The Investec Oaks was a very messy race as Minding got herself into all sorts of trouble aided by some very clever race riding tactics by William Buick on Skiffle. My colleague’s figures for Minding vary worldwide from 117 to 120. The Handicappers have to agree a figure by Thursday when the next edition of the Longines World’s Best Racehorse Rankings are published. I am in the 120 camp but accept that it means Architecture has improved massively from her pre-race 97!

    The figures on our system for Harzand in the Derby vary from 121 to 124. I am in the middle on 122 for him using the very consistent Humphrey Bogart on 105 as a guide. He was nearly eleven lengths behind the winner but I do have concerns that this might get Idaho too high on 117.

    TULLIUS ON TOP

    As the BHA Handicapper lucky enough to be responsible for the top end mile and ten furlong races, the Epsom Derby meeting is always a busy time for me writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill. Despite having three good quality handicaps over the two days, the best finish and the most satisfying result came in the Group 3 Investec Diomed Stakes on Friday.

    It was unfortunate that likely favourite and standard setter Arod was a late withdrawal but it took nothing away from the excitement of the contest. Tullius got up right on the line to deny Decorated Knight and the pacemaking Custom Cut by a short head and a head. It was not just the spectacle of the finish that was so satisfying but, from a handicapping perspective, the fact that all three ran right up to their current BHA ratings of 110, 109 and 114 respectively. Each finished exactly where the ratings suggested they would – it isn’t often that things work out so neatly!

    Much was made in the press of the first time visor bringing out the required improvement in Tullius. I am not so sure about that as I have his four performances prior to Epsom in 2016 pegged at 108-109-110-108 and think he did no more than reproduce his third place in the Earl of Sefton at Newmarket in April to score. This view is given further credence by the fact that Custom Cut was a head behind in 4th that day giving Andrew Balding’s gelding 5lb – all sounds very familiar doesn’t it!!
    There were no prizes for guessing the most difficult race to re-handicap last week and the one that I took longest over my final decision – the mile handicap won by the errant Defrocked at Doncaster on Saturday. Jamie Osborne’s gelding obviously has a ton of ability but also some mighty quirks as well. Having hit the front on the far side of the field he then swerved violently right hampering to varying degrees nine of his thirteen opponents. He finished on the stands rail and scampering away to an impressive success. I watched the replay countless times to try and judge by how much each horse has been disadvantaged by his actions and, indeed, if he had disadvantaged himself with his wayward path. In the end I raised him 10lb from 85 to 95 and put up the second, Next Stage, by 6lb from 82 to 88. Next Stage appeared one of the worst sufferers but, having switched back around Defrocked, he had every chance to run him down through the final furlong. By the line the winner was actually going away again. Both look Britannia Handicap types at the Royal meeting although Defrocked will need to keep straight and Next Stage may be on the borderline for getting into the race off 88.

    HOW ARE THE JUVENILES LOOKING?

    Graeme Smith on what has happened so far and looks ahead to Royal Ascot.
    It tends not to be until Royal Ascot that we get a real taste for which are the leading two-year-olds but there have been a few clashes already that have whet the appetite.

    The strongest race so far in Britain has probably been the National Stakes. That marked the second clash between Global Applause and Mehmas and the former levelled the score in decisive fashion. For some reason, Global Applause had not been on song when beaten into second on the pair’s first meeting at Newbury. But by the same token Mehmas did not get the rub of the green at Sandown.

    It seems the pair are unlikely to meet again at Royal Ascot with the Norfolk nominated as Global Applause’s target rather than the Coventry. But both are likely to feature near the top of the market for their respective races.

    The second listed race of the year open to colts was staged on Oaks day at Epsom in the form of the Investec Woodcote. It was a close-run thing in the end between Legendary Lunch and Danielsflyer. The pair might well be on different paths in terms of their stamina in the medium to long term, but it was hard not to be impressed by the turn of foot the former showed when first sent on.

    There are a host of others who’ve looked exciting without dipping their toe into listed company quite yet. The twice-raced Yalta, from Mark Johnston’s stable, and the Godolphin maiden winners Silver Line and Thunder Snow are all worth looking out for.

    On the fillies front, the only listed race of the British season so far fell to Vona who belied her 33/1 odds in the Langley’s Solicitors EBF Marygate Stakes at York. A line through second-placed Boater suggests the Hilary Needler at Beverley, which went to Richard Hannon’s Grizzel, could be at least as strong.

    Saying that, there are plenty of potentially smart fillies who have yet to get the opportunity to prove the point including Richard Fahey’s Queen Kindly. She is by Frankel out of the Lowther winner Lady of The Desert (herself a daughter of the brilliant Queen’s Logic). While it was a small race that she won at Catterick she did it in scintillating fashion.

    Godolphin’s Nasimi also created a very strong impression when winning at Haydock. The daughter of the operation’s Cherry Hinton and UAE 1000 Guineas winner Gamilati left herself with a mountain to climb through early greenness; but she ran away to score by three lengths once finally getting the message without William Buick having to get serious.RECEN
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    ROYAL ASCOT 2016 / 21 JUN 16

    DARTMOUTH TAKES PRIDE OF PLACE IN THE ROYAL ASCOT 12 FURLONG CONTESTS

    Phil Smith assessed Dartmouth on 119 from his thrilling win in the Hardwicke Stakes on Saturday. It was a tricky race to rate. Clearly everything behind Mount Logan had run below form and Highland Reel is a difficult horse to weigh up. The average winning performance in the Hardwicke over the last seven years has been 122 with a high of Harbinger on 126 and a low of Thomas Chippendale on 116.

    In his last win at Goodwood we had Mount Logan performing to 107. So, after a number of false starts I experimented with his 107 as the level for the race. This brought Almodovar out on 113 which was a significant improvement on his pre-race 107 but he has looked a progressive horse in handicaps. It meant Highland Reel had performed to 118 which was below his best but this seemed reasonable. He had been slightly impeded, his jockey dropped his whip and he did not look as if he was mad keen to go past Dartmouth. His best runs have been on Good or faster ground so 118 was creditable but below his best.

    As a result Dartmouth is on 119 which will not quite get him into the next edition of the Longines World’s Leading Horses issued on 14th July as the cut-off point will be 120. He started the season on 102 so is a big improver. Who is to say what level he can get to later in the season. So far only two of my International colleagues have put figures on our inter-active system and they each have Dartmouth on 118.

    The King Edward VII Stakes was a little more straightforward thanks to the amazingly consistent Humphrey Bogart. I now have him performing to 105 on his last four appearances and it meant that Across The Stars was on 111. It was an unsatisfactory race in that it was run around two and a half seconds slower than the handicap over the same distance. Across The Stars is the joint lowest winner of the race in the last eight years. There does look to be more to come from him as there does from Muntahaa (108). That on was disadvantaged by the way the race was run and was doing all his best work in the final furlong.

    The Ribblesdale Stakes was another slowly run affair with most of the field finishing in a heap. I had hoped that Architecture would frank the form of the Investec Oaks but she is a thorough stayer and was inconvenienced by the way the race was run. Oaks runners traditionally have a poor record when reappearing at Royal Ascot.

    The seven year average winning performance of the winner is 112 but I have Even Song (110) a couple of pounds shy of that mark. Queen’s Trust may be the filly to take out of this race as she improved her rating from 96 to 105 despite coming from well back in the field in a race not run to suit her.

    Primitivo (105 from 95) was a convincing winner of the King George V handicap. He has now won four consecutive handicaps improving 31lb. in the process. Before that was put up 5lb for finishing second in a handicap. We are often told that it is harsh to put up horses for finishing second and that we never “allow” horses to run up a sequence. Clearly, Primitivo who looks as if he would make a fantastic jumper, has disproved those theories.

    In contrast to some of the Pattern Races, the Duke of Edinburgh handicap was run at a blistering pace favouring the hold-up horses. As a result the performance of the second placed horse, Elite Army (109 from 105) deserves merit as he was up with the pace all the way. Of course the advantage of being up with the pace means you are less likely to get trouble in running which is what happened to Kings Fete (109 from 104). Notice that I have put the third horse up a pound more than the second because of what happened in the race. This may seem hard. But, had I not done that, you would all have rightly assumed that Kings Fete would definitely beat Elite Army if they were to meet next time.

    TIP-TOP TEPIN


    For Dominic Gardiner-Hill the personal and professional highlight if the week came in the very first race.

    American mare Tepin has carried all before her in her homeland and, with a published rating of 121 in the most recent list of the Longines World Best Racehorse Rankings along with the 3lb sex allowance, was clear top rate for the Queen Anne. We saw last year with Able Friend that it is not always easy to replicate your “home” form on a different continent; but Tepin put in a gutsy performance to see off the best of the older European milers currently in action. She won by half a length from the Lockinge winner Belardo.

    I have taken the view that Roger Varian’s colt has replicated his Newbury performance of 119. This has the third, Lightning Spear, improving a couple of pounds from 115 to 117 on his first start for David Simcock and the fourth, Toormore, performing to 115. This is the same mark to which I have him running when he filled the same position behind Solow in last year’s race.

    All this suggests Tepin has run to 117 – 4lb of the very best of her American form but a very worthy effort given that she was Lasix free, couldn’t wear her much publicised nasal strips and was having her first look at a straight mile! Looking at the bigger picture it is great for racing when these foreign superstars can come and perform at or close to their best in our top races – and from a handicapping perspective continues to provide evidence on which to base the levels on the World Rankings.

    The best mile performance of the week was in the St James’s Palace however – hardly surprising as it was contested by the winners of the English, Irish and French 2000 Guineas. Senior Turf Club Handicapper Garry O’Gorman had a pound between The Gurkha (120) and Awtaad (119) pre-race and the figures worked out with only half a length between them in finishing second and third behind Newmarket hero Galileo Gold. The figures probably do not tell the whole story as there is little doubt Frankie Dettori got first run on his rivals. But I am happy to use them as a basis on which to race the race for the moment and have published Hugo Palmer’s colt on 123 this week, a 3lb improvement on his 2000 Guineas victory.

    The meeting was also graced by the highest rated horse in the world when Japanese star A Shin Hikari lined up for the Prince of Wales’s Stakes on Wednesday. He earned his 129 rating and lofty position at the head of the WBRR with a ten lengths demolition of a good quality field in the Prix d’Ispahan at Chantilly (1m1f) three weeks previous. But here he proved a big disappointment. He ran far too freely and faded in the straight to finish last of the six runners performing some 16lb below his French form. My Dream Boat (122) took advantage of the favourite’s poor performance to land his fifth victory in his last seven outings and a first Group 1 success. It is worth remembering that he was over fourteen lengths behind A Shin Hikari on his previous outing

    The Royal Ascot handicaps are always extremely competitive and a potential Listed or Group class performer is usually required to land most of them. This year was no exception and for Hunt Cup winner Portage (+6lb to 111), Sandringham winner Persuasive (+9lb to 104) and the wayward (but very talented) Britannia winner Defrocked’s (+10lb to 105) their days of running in handicaps must be almost over. You may remember from a recent Handicapper’s blog how difficult I had found it to assess Defrocked after his recent Doncaster win when he wiped out the majority of his opponents by turning sharply right after hitting the front. Given the evidence of last Thursday, I think I may have underestimated him a little…..!

    THE SCAT DADDY LEGACY


    From the six two-year-races at Royal Ascot the flagship performances on both the colt and filly fronts came from horses sired by the late Scat Daddy, writes Graeme Smith.

    The vibes had been positive about Caravaggio throughout the run-up to the Coventry and he overcame adversity with a dominant performance. With his stand-side group clearly behind their far-side rivals he had to go it alone through the last two furlong. He not only burst clear of his group but ran down and right past the enterprisingly-ridden Mehmas.

    The race returned a smart speed figure of 115 on my calculations, and in a spread-out finish the ‘right’ horses – all from the head of the market – came to the fore.

    It is a race to be positive about and a figure of 116 puts Caravaggio the joint-fourth-highest Coventry winner since the turn of the century. He is behind War Command, Three Valleys and Canford Cliffs and upsides Art Connoisseur. What is more, the handsome grey has plenty of physical scope and, given what he had to overcome to win impressively, there is every chance he’ll have posted a figure even higher by the autumn.

    Mehmas, incidentally, emerges from the week as the leading British juvenile, currently pencilled in at 110.

    On the fillies front Lady Aurelia proved for many to be the brightest star of the week with her demolition job on the Queen Mary field. She led a couple of fillies who themselves look speedy in Barroche and Kachess. And, when it looked as though she might begin to wilt, she somehow found overdrive.

    As with all of these figures it is hard to be confident at this stage of the season and they will all be debated before the final European standings are produced. At the moment I am looking in the region of 121. That would put Lady Aurelia ahead of the 120 Lyric Fantasy got for winning the Queen Mary by five lengths in 1992 and the 116 Jealous Again got for winning by that distance in 2009. In fact, if she is awarded 121, it will be the best performance by a two-year-old filly since Queen’s Logic (122) streaked clear in the Cheveley Park in 2001. As far as her standing with that filly goes it would be helpful if Lady Aurelia could put up another powerhouse performance in the Morny.

    Incidentally her speed figure was off the scale.

    The Windsor Castle was also truly run. If anything I wonder if the leaders went too fast. Those who raced close up all fizzled out and, in the circumstances, the winner Ardad and fourth-placed Full Intention possibly deserve extra credit.

    Either way, it was hard not to be impressed by Ardad, just six days on from a winning debut at Yarmouth. John Gosden’s son of Kodiac travelled easily in touch and stretched more than three lengths clear of a bunch finish for the minor honours.

    A speed figure of 107 suggests I could have taken a higher view, but it’s in the back of my mind that it was largely outsiders who came to the fore as the front runners faded. I settled at 106 instead. That is just an average figure for recent renewals but I think Ardad himself has the potential to improve further.

    DIAMOND TWILIGHT


    The field of nine for the Diamond Jubilee Stakes was its smallest field this millennium, though what it lacked in quantity it made up for in quality with four Group 1 winners writes sprint Handicapper Stewart Copeland.
    Twilight Son, Gold-Fun, Holler and last year’s winner Undrafted were the four but at the head of the market was the 114-rated Magical Memory, impressive winner of the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes last time out. A narrow second favourite was the thoroughly progressive The Tin Man, an authoritative winner of a Windsor listed race on his reappearance, with rating of 115.

    The race itself turned into a tactical affair. Soon bowling along at the head of the field was the French challenger Signs of Blessing setting just a fair pace to around 2f out where the race began in earnest. Plenty were still in with a chance at that point and, in a stirring finish, only 0.12s separated the first five home. The Henry Candy-trained Twilight Son prevailed by a neck from Hong Kong’s challenger Gold-Fun. Signs of Blessing kept on for a gallant third with the aforementioned Magical Memory fourth and Suedois fifth.

    Given the blanket finish, and how the pace of the race played its part in the result, a degree of caution is needed in settling on a level for the race. Having taken some sectional times for this and the 6f Wokingham Handicap run later on, it came as no surprise the latter was run marginally quicker to the 2f furlong pole. Evidence of the clock like this explains why the field was still bunched up 2f out. A position on or near the pace had to be advantageous. In the circumstances, the keen going Magical Memory who came from the rear to launch his challenge, was on the wrong side of the pace bias. The Tin Man raced too keenly and connections also said that the going was too soft for him. Given his profile, it is far too soon to write him off at this level.

    Analysis using pre-race and historical standards also point to taking a cautious view for now, with them both suggesting a figure of 115 for the winner’s performance. This ties in reasonably well with what the placed horses have been running to this year and seems a sensible level to pitch it. This is slightly below the average we would expect for the Diamond Jubilee, but that should not detract from the performance of the winner.

    If anything Twilight Son himself would probably have benefitted from a stronger gallop, racing keener than ideal up with the pace. Having gone in to the race rated highest of the home contingent on 117, his rating will remain unchanged. And, given his overall progressive career profile, there is every hope of more to come. His next stop is likely to be the July Cup at Newmarket, where he will aim to confirm his current domestic superiority over Magical Memory and The Tin Man – a race that I am looking forward to eagerly.

    IRELAND 4 – 0 ENGLAND.


    Not football, writes staying Handicapper Mark Olley; it is actually the result of the four staying races run at Royal Ascot last week (technically Great Britain but I am using artistic licence).
    The Ascot Gold Cup had the largest field, I am told, since the Second World War. However, with quantity there was also quality. Order Of St George had eight pounds in hand over his rivals on pre-race ratings. His lofty figure of 124 came from running away with the Irish St Leger last autumn by eleven lengths.

    The 2m4f distance in a truly run race was an unknown but his class was not in doubt and, despite getting a troubled run through the race, Aidan O’Brien’s colt powered clear inside the final furlong for an impressive three length win. I did not feel he needed to replicate his 124 rating to win this. The figure I have for this race is 119, and having discussed this with Irish Handicapper Garry O’Gorman his official rating of 124 will remain.

    The race was not a hard one to rate as Sheikhzayedroad (finished third) has several 113 performances throughout his career and Mille et Mille, just over a further two lengths back in fourth, in all likelihood replicated her pre-race figure of 111. Both these figures tie in with historical standards for the race.

    Runner-up Mizzou considerably bettered his seventh in the race last year. Luca Cumani’s colt is still relatively unexposed as a stayer. He decisively beat all bar Order Of St George and his new rating of 115 firmly marks him to the fore of the staying rank. If Order Of St George drops back to a mile and a half for the Arc, as post-race quotes suggest, then Mizzou should be a major player in the remaining Cup races, especially as there is probably more improvement to come.

    The Queen’s Vase, run over 2m on Friday, and confined to three year olds, is designed to find the stayers of the future. Sword Fighter made all the running in another race where tactically it was important to race prominently.

    The runners all finished in a bunch and it was not an easy race to rate. Runner-up Harbour Law continues to improve by leaps and bounds and his new rating of 102 (up eleven pounds) is one of the few British ones in the race as five of the first seven home were trained in Ireland.

    The one staying handicap went to the nine year old mare Jennies Jewel. This is not the first time she has made the journey to Ascot. She was there in January and on that day found Vroum Vroum Mag over three lengths too good in the Olbg.com Mares Hurdle. Tuesday was, I am sure connections will agree, more than ample compensation as she made all the running and battled on gamely for a thrilling win (her rating moves up five to 98).

    The pace was not strong and three of the first four home were all ridden very prominently. The exception was runner-up Qewy who was caught a long way back when the pace quickened leaving Swinley Bottom. Charlie Appleby’s gelding ate up the ground inside the final furlong and would likely have won in another fifty yards. However, the race is not run over another fifty yards and Jennies Jewel clung on for a deserved win.

    Add in the Queen Alexandra win for Commissioned and it was a clear sweep for the emerald isle.

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