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Thread: The thoughts of the handicappers.

  1. #221
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    Pupil performs perfectly in freezing Flat opener.

    I HAD the pleasure of assessing no fewer than six of the eight races at Doncaster's opening Flat meeting on Friday, but with the deep ground and fierce wind it was a day where a lot of the mathematical workings have to be taken with a pinch of salt, writes Graeme Smith.

    The highest rated horse to feature was last year's Chester Vase runner-up Model Pupil, and he duly landed the odds in the 1m4f Doncaster Shield by eight lengths from the outsider of the five-strong field The Bull Hayes. Model Pupil's form from last year has stood up sufficiently well for me to leave his 107 rating unchanged but I have him running to just 99 on the day.

    My assessment of the race revolves around where I want The Bull Hayes' rating to lie. He came to Doncaster rated 84, but had been on 90 in Ireland following his most recent Flat start in 2011 and was as high as 105 two years prior to that.

    I considered it probably wasn't fair to raise him to 90+ with his recent Jumps form suggests he is in decline so pitched him in on 87 for the time being with the hope of getting a better guide next time he runs. The other three in the race were of little use in determining the level, with Art Scholar and Cracking Lass clearly not on form and Masterful Act unproven on turf.

    It's fair to say Model Pupil's future probably lies over further as he needed pressure for a good two furlongs before mastering The Bull Hayes, and his pedigree also backs up that impression. He's had only five starts in his career so far and further improvement could well be forthcoming.

    Most horses still looked decidedly wintry throughout the day at Doncaster but that certainly couldn't be said of Mister Impatience, who took the 1m2f three-year-old handicap by a wide margin with his head in his chest, and in a good time when allowances are made for the strong tailwind in the straight.

    In less harsh conditions Mister Impatience would have come in for a bigger rise, but the son of Peter Harris's smart Cambridgeshire winner Katy Nowaitee goes up 11lb to 93 for this nine-length defeat of Allnecessaryforce. Mark Johnston invariably unveils a strong team of middle-distance three-year-olds and the battalion is evidently ready to roll early this year.

    The first division of the 7f handicap saw Gouray Girl return to form after losing her way towards the end of last season. She earned a 9lb rise to 86 with her five-length defeat of Fieldgunner Kirkup, a mark from which she proved competitive last summer.

    The final noteworthy perfor mances from Town Moor came in the 7f maiden for three-year-olds. The race went to the Mick Easterby-trained Aetna, who belied her inexperience to account for Khelman by a neck with a bit up her sleeve. The second and fourth (Yul Finegold) had form in the book from last year to pin the race around and Aetna earned herself a rating of 77, which comprised of a bare figure of 75 plus 2lb for ease. It remains to be seen how much she learned from a race where she was treated with kid gloves however.

    A length and a quarter behind Aetna in third was the John Gosden-trained newcomer Munhamer, who for my money made an equally encouraging start. I have him running to a figure of 77 on the day and both his pedigree and performance suggest longer trips will bring plenty of improvement from him.

    HANNON FIRES AN EARLY WARNING
    If someone had told me I would be spending Lincoln day digging my car out of a four foot deep snowdrift rather than taking a trip to Town Moor I think I'd have called them crazy, writes Stewart Copeland.

    However my weather troubles aside, I had at least one turf race to get my teeth into on the opening day of the season, which was the 6f handicap for three-year-olds.

    Richard Hannon looks to have his team fit and firing already, and it was his colt Annunciation who carried top weight to victory, making all under a positive ride from last year's champion jockey, Richard Hughes.

    Annunciation showed useful sprint form as a juvenile and had run creditably in a Listed race at Chantilly the previous week. He showed the benefit of that outing and stepped up further still on that effort, showing himself as good as ever.

    Successful off a handicap mark of 94, I have Annunciation running to a rating of 99. On this evidence he's well worth another chance in Listed company.

    RUN FOR THE HILLS
    The abandonment of Doncaster on Saturday was particularly frustrating from a personal point of view as the Lincoln is my first major handicap of the year and is o ften a valuable pointer as to how forward certain stables are, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

    But, looking on the bright side, the testing conditions at Doncaster might have provided an uncompetitive heat and a result that would have been extremely hard to nail down in terms of levels and figures. Fingers crossed things work out better for the rescheduling this Saturday.

    In the absence of the Lincoln and its consolation race (the Spring Mile) my week was once again spent on the all-weather where the best performance I had to deal with was that put up by Bryan Smart's Dubai Hills when winning the 1m handicap at Southwell's hastily-arranged Saturday fixture.

    The seven-year-old is a real track specialist and was notching his sixth victory from seven outings on the course when prevailing by three quarters of a length off 92 - I felt he was in complete charge of the race throughout the last furlong and a half and have raised his all-weather mark to 96 (up 4lb), at the same time taking his turf mark up the same amount to 92. His efforts on turf last year suggest he may struggle off that mark, but I believe his win on Saturday shows him back to his best of early 2011 on the all-weather, after which he finished third in that spring's Lincoln off 95.

    The form of the race on Saturday looks solid with the next three home all having run to their ratings last time - as such I have left David O'Meara's fourth-placed gelding Frontier Fighter (winner of three off his previous five starts) on his pre-race 84 and raised both runner-up Docofthebay (winner of penultimate start of 83 and fifth in Listed company latest) and third-placed Caldercruix (winner off 73 previously) 1lb each to new marks of 88 and 79 respectively.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

  2. #222
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    An awesome Aintree
    THIS year's Aintree festival will be remembered for the fantastic spectacle and undisputed success of the Grand National and Phil Smith will be dedicating an entire piece to the race in his upcoming Head of Handicapping blog.

    There was loads more quality sport away from the showpiece over the course of the three days and our NH team are out in force once more to eulogise over their individual high points.

    SUPERSTAR SACRE

    As was the case with the mighty Frankel last summer, a step up in distance held no terrors for superstar chaser Sprinter Sacre in Aintree's John Smith's Melling Chase last week, writes John de Moraville.

    Like Frankel, who effortlessly replicated the 140 of his stunning Queen Anne saunter in York's quarter-mile longer Juddmonte International, Sprinter Sacre never came off the bridle at his first attempt at 2m4f - a gloriously similar story to the eight unextended victories he had notched over chasing's minimum trip.

    Though the winning distance was nowhere near the 19 lengths of last month's Queen Mother Champion Chase romp - a tour de force that earned him a record rating of 188 - Sprinter Sacre disposed of old rival Cue Card with such total disdain that who is to say he could not have matched that exalted figure.

    Cue Card, promoted to a career-best 172, is a top-class performer in his own right, the merit of his nine lengths Ryanair Chase victory at Cheltenham graphically underlined by runner-up First Lieutenant's success in Aintree's Betfred Bowl.

    While not in the same league (who is?) as his superlative stable companion, Captain Conan notched his third Grade 1 victory of the season in the 2m4f Betfred Manifesto Novices' Chase, boosting his rating to 159.

    The hugely likeable six-year-old has now won four of his five chases, the only 'blip' occurring in Cheltenham's Jewson Golden Miller Chase when he ran out of gas on the climb to the line.

    Nicky Henderson had been in two minds whether to target Captain Conan at Saturday's 2m John Smith's Maghull Chase and, strictly on figures, he would have won it, with victory going to the Irish-trained long-shot Special Tiara (157) from Overturn (155) and Cheltenham's Grand Annual winner Alderwood (153).

    Having run up a high-profile sequence of victories last season, Hunt Ball has found life much more difficult this term. But with the rains finally relenting, the talented eight-year-old bounced off his favoured fast ground to lift Taunton's richest ever race last Thursday with something to spare, thereby registering a career-best rating of 162.

    ZARKANDAR HOLDS OFF SPECIAL ONE

    The 2m4f Grade 1 John Smith's Aintree Hurdle shaped up like a cracking contest pre-race with five of the nine runners lining up with ratings of 164 or above and the highly-progressive novice The New One willing to chance his arm against them, writes Chris Nash.

    The race provided a fantastic spectacle on the opening day of the festival with Zarkandar just holding the challenge of The New One by half a length with a further length and a quarter back to Thousand Stars.

    It would be fair to say that the race was run at an unspectacular pace which can sometimes muddy the waters when assessing the form. However, on this occasion I have the admirably consistent Thousand Stars to base the race around. He had placed in the previous two renewals of this contest and on both occasions had recorded a figure of 164.

    Thousand Stars lined up with a British pre-race rating of 164 and the most sensible reading of this form is to conclude that once again he ran his race. That has Zarkandar running to his pre-race rating of 167 and The New One running a massive figure for a novice of 166.

    Zarkandar was wearing blinkers for the first time in his hurdling career and he certainly proved his stamina. Connections did not hesitate to suggest that his future lies over 2½m and beyond so it is probably to his credit that he's recorded such a level of form over the minimum trip thus far.

    The New One had run to 155 when winning the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham but given the chance to run against more established performers he showed that he is right up to their class. With improvement more than possible in his second season hurdling combined with the speed he's shown thus far he must be a solid contender for the showpiece 2m hurdle races next season en route to the Champion Hurdle 2014.

    SOLT OF THE EARTH

    With Big Buck's out of the picture, the resurgent Solwhit has taken over the mantle this season and completed the Cheltenham/Aintree double, writes Martin Greenwood.

    While the World Hurdle may have partly fallen into his hands due to the steady pace, the John Smith's Liverpool Hurdle was a much more truly-run affair and Solwhit ran out a very convincing winner.

    Top rated on 164 going into the race, he looked to hold an excellent chance of following up given the majority of his rivals were either disappointing types such as Grands Crus or up-and-coming ex-handicappers like Holywell and Medinas, though Smad Place, third in the last two World Hurdles also lined up.

    Everything went to plan for Solwhit, who under a typically patient Carberry ride pounced at the last and strolled clear of the much-improved Pertemps winner Holywell (now 159) with Smad Place (still 158) finishing in his favourite position. Solwhit's bare form was 162 (opposed to 159 that my standards suggested) but I have given him an extra 5lb and his new mark is now 167, which puts him firmly into second place behind Big Buck's in this season's staying hurdle ranks. It must be remembered that Big Buck's stroll at Newbury in December strongly suggested that he had retained all his ability and he remains on 174.

    One horse who ran really well in the face of a stiff task in the Liverpool Hurdle was African Gold, who though beaten 13 lengths showed his best form and is now rated 150 (from 145) and is a top novice. He rather surprisingly ducked the issue against his Albert Bartlett conqueror At Fishers Cross in the John Smith's Sefton Novices' last Friday, though the way At Fishers Cross disposed of his second division opponents in that race suggests that African Gold would have played second fiddle again.

    Despite being well clear on the ratings (152), pre-race I was concerned that the quicker ground allied to the sharper track could catch At Fishers Cross out, my thinking that such a thorough stayer who had not always shown a fluency in the jumping stakes may be always chasing the game. However in the event, At Fishers Cross proved all those fears groundless, for he travelled like a dream throughout and probably put in his best round of jumping to score most decisively.

    I think the race as a whole is only around the average for this particular event, and the bare performance of At Fishers Cross is only 146. However with extra poundage added for style of victory and an increase to the level of the Albert Bartlett, At Fishers Cross' new rating is 155 with the promise of better still. This will put him quite a way behind The New One, whom my colleague Chris Nash discussed earlier in this week's blog, though that horse has had the 'opportunity' to race against his 'elders' whereas At Fishers Cross has remained in the novice ranks. In a season of exceptional novice hurdlers, including at much shorter distances, The New One and At Fishers Cross have both contributed greatly to the party.

    UNIQUE ACHIEVEMENT FOR KING

    Alan King saddled his fourth winner of the Grade 1 Matalan Anniversary Hurdle since 2007 when L'Unique left a disappointing Kempton run behind her, writes David Dickinson.

    The yard's three previous winners Grumeti, Walkon and Katchit all finished in the first three in the Triumph at the festival but this filly had missed that meeting altogether with Aintree in mind. The first three in the Anniversary had all avoided Cheltenham in fact and those who took in that meeting all arguably ran below their best.

    At one point in the season I had L'Unique rated at 142 and, allowing for her gender, the highest rated of the home juveniles. I have promoted her back to that original figure, given that Cockney Sparrow, who she beat comprehensively at Aintree in December, ran to 141 in winning the handicap that followed the Grand National impressively.

    I have the runner-up Runswick Royal running to 145, the same rating as Triumph runner-up Far West achieved at Cheltenham. With Irish Saint and Rolling Star one each on level-weight head-to-head meetings, I now have both on 143.

    The obvious conclusion to draw at present is that this has been an ordinary crop of juveniles, with the one magnificent exception of Our Conor.

    My Tent Or Yours could hardly be faulted on the manner of his return to winning ways on Friday. His jumping may have been less than foot perfect early on but he warmed to the task and looked a real speed horse, so maybe the Cheltenham hill just found him out at this stage in his career in the Supreme. I have rated the race through the third, Zuider Zee, and have My Tent Or Yours running to the 158 figure that he was moved to after Cheltenham.

    He is clearly a fantastic prospect looking ahead but to a certain extent the horse remains something of an enigma, his last five runs having seen three very impressive victories and two unexpected defeats.

    This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

  3. #223
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    National winners and their runs in handicaps
    BHA head of handicapping's blog - by Phil Smith

    LAST week I explained how I came to the decision of raising Auroras Encore from 137 to 148 after his win in the John Smith's Grand National. It seemed a fairly logical decision to me, but it seems it has upset Harvey Smith who thought he should have been raised by only 5lb not 11lb.

    As I explained Cappa Bleu was due to go up by 2lb before the race so that if I had indeed only raised Auroras Encore by the 5lb suggested by Harvey then Cappa Bleu would only have had a 3lb pull for a nine-length defeat. I think most impartial observers would feel that in that case Auroras Encore would have had a better than equal chance if the first two in the Grand National were to meet next time.

    Harvey supported his case by saying that over the last ten years Grand National winners had not won another handicap subsequently and they were always raised by too much for winning. This sounded quite a convincing argument so I determined to investigate it. I further decided to look at all 14 of the Grand National winners I had reassessed to see if Harvey had a point.

    In 2012 Neptune Collonges won off 157 and I put him up 11lb back to the 168 he was rated at the start of the season. He never ran again as he was retired. It seemed a little harsh to include him in the list of non-winners without him having had a chance to even run in a handicap.

    In 2011 Ballabriggs was put up from 150 to 160 for winning. He subsequently ran in four handicaps, two of them Grand Nationals where he finished sixth and pulled up. One of the other two races was over 2m4f. Two days before his retirement was announced I dropped him to 142.

    In 2010 Don't Push It was raised from 153 to 164. He subsequently ran in only one handicap, the following year's Grand National where he finished third off 160 having been dropped 4lb for running disappointingly in hurdle races through the year.

    Mon Mome won in 2009 and I put him up from 148 to 161. By the time he fell in the race the following year he had dropped to 155 having been well beaten in two handicaps but finishing third in the Gold Cup. By the time he retired I had dropped him 48lb for getting beaten in 12 ordinary handicaps plus two Grand Nationals.

    Comply Or Die won in 2008 off 139 and went up 15lb to 154. The following year he finished second in the Grand National. Of course the reality is that once a horse wins a Grand National connections usually state that their target is to run in the race again. Other races are merely a stepping stone to the Holy Grail.

    After winning the Grand National in 2007, Silver Birch fell in his next chase, which was the 2009 Grand National, and subsequently ran in cross country races before finishing twelfth in the Topham over less than 3m.

    Numbersixvalverde ran only in another Grand National in this country after his win in 2006 finishing sixth. While the only handicaps that Hedgehunter subsequently ran in were three Grand Nationals including finishing second in the year after his win.

    Amberleigh House ran in ten handicaps after his win in 2004. Two of them were Grand Nationals but four of them were over 2m4f, a distance over which he had no conceivable chance. Monty's Pass only ran in two handicaps after his win in 2003. They were both Grand Nationals and he finished fourth in one of them.

    So technically Harvey is correct, none of the last ten winners of the race have subsequently won a race. However one never ran again and four of them only ever ran in a handicap in the Grand National itself.

    Statistically horses have a ten per cent chance of being in the first four in the Grand National. In the last ten years Grand National winners have subsequently run in 17 more Grand Nationals being placed in four of them at a rate of 23.5 per cent.

    Going back just one more year to Bindaree in 2002 we find a horse that DID win a race after winning the Grand National. He won off 136 and went up to 147. By the following year's Welsh National he was down to 138 and won by half a length. He also ran in three more Grand Nationals.

    Before him Red Marauder never ran in a chase again while Papillion ran only in another National finishing fourth and Bobbyjo also only ever ran in another Grand National finishing 11th.

    I am actually pretty content with the future record of winners of Grand Nationals that I have handicapped.

    One has gone on to win a Welsh National and overall they have run in another 22 Grand Nationals finishing placed on five occasions winning big prize-money which was the understandable objective of their trainers. Many of their other runs were over distances far short of their best. Amberleigh House ran on four occasions over less than 3m and started at 33-1 and 50-1. They were prep races and to accuse me of handicapping him not to win them is manipulating the facts.

    So no future winners from the victors of the last ten Grand Nationals sounds a persuasive sound bite, but the facts behind it tell a rather different tale. What has surprised me is that Auroras Encore was not entered in the bet365 Handicap Chase at Sandown. I did the weights for the race before Aintree when he ran off 137 due to drop to 133 following a poor run at Kelso in March.

    There is no penalty structure for the bet365 Chase so Auroras Encore would have run off 133 at Sandown as opposed to 148 at Ayr this Saturday. Carrying 10st 2lb at Sandown getting 24lb from the current top weight Junior (157), and with an extra week's rest, would appear to this Handicapper to be a more attractive prospect than carrying 11st 12lb at Ayr...

    This blog appears courtesy of the BHA
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

  4. #224
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    Toronado produced the performance of the week

    BY THE BHA HANDICAPPERS 4:14PM 26 APR 2013

    The Flat season continued to gain momentum last week as Newmarket hosted the Craven meeting and Newbury held its two day Spring meeting. This week both Dominic Gardiner-Hill and Graeme Smith assess Guineas trials and Guineas hopefuls, including the impressive Toronado and Qipco 1,000 Guineas ante-post favourite, Hot Snap.

    TORONADO BLOWS AWAY CRAVEN RIVALS

    The best performance of the week in any contest not just a classic trial came from the much vaunted Toronado in the Novae Bloodstock Insurance Craven Stakes at Newmarket, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

    Although a little short of numbers with just four runners, the race appeared to have plenty of quality with the minimum rating of the four being 110 but Toronado kept his unbeaten record intact with a convincing four length success from Havan Gold (110) – I have raised his mark from 114 to 121 for the performance and believe there is more to come. To my eyes he was having a bit of "a look around" at points in the closing stages and I hope that this good looking son of High Chaparral will continue onwards and upwards from here.

    A reproduction of his 121 would have seen him finish at least second in the last 10 2,000 Guineas, whilst it would have been good enough to win six of them – however, he still remains 3lb shy of last season's Champion 2yo Dawn Approach (124) and the prospect of the two of them doing battle a week on Saturday at Newmarket is mouth-watering to say the least.

    Elsewhere at Newmarket Jane Chapple-Hyam's Mull of Killough continued his progress through the ranks when taking the Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Earl of Sefton Stakes. The figures fit quite neatly with runner-up Stipulate (110) and fourth placed Boom and Bust (106) having pretty much reproduced their marks which suggest that the winner has improved 3lb from 113 to 116 – which the trainer hopes will be enough to get him an invite to the Singapore Cup.

    Much of the interest in the race centred on the reappearance of the now gelded Bonfire who earned a figure of 114 last year for his success in the Dante at York. He still looked a far from straightforward ride and in my book ran to 106 in finishing third - Given that this was his third below par run since York, I have brought his published mark down 4lb to 110. It may be he requires softer ground than he encountered on Newmarket and it will be interesting to see if such conditions can bring about a return to former levels.

    With an eye on the future the other interesting performance at HQ came from the Andre Fabre trained Intello in the EBM-Papst Feilden Stakes. With finishing distances of three and a half lengths, seven lengths, and half a length, it is not an easy race to rate with any confidence but I was impressed with his manner of victory and both myself and my French colleagues think this unbeaten in three colt to be a useful performer in the making – I have pencilled in a performance of 110 for him but he is another I would expect to improve on that as the season progresses.

    OLYMPIC GLORY WINS ANOTHER GOLD MEDAL

    The Flat season undoubtedly cranked up a notch last week and I had the pleasure of assessing the majority of the recognised Guineas trials at Newmarket and Newbury having taken responsibility for the top-level 7f races, writes Graeme Smith.

    Ante-post markets suggest there’s a strong chance I didn’t come across the Qipco 2,000 Guineas winner, with the Aon Greenham Stakes winner Olympic Glory seemingly set to contest the French version and the CSP European Free Handicap winner Garswood still available as odds as long as 25-1, but there are some shrewd judges who seem to think the latter represents value each way.

    The Free Handicap was by far the most straightforward of the trials to assess, by virtue of it being a handicap, and the bunched finish between third and seventh provided a solid basis to form my assessment around. That meant a 2lb rise to 102 for runner-up Emell, which was easily justifiable on the form he’d shown when winning at Salisbury in August, and a base figure of 113 for Garswood who’d given him a 5lb beating off a mark of 106. There’s no doubt that figure underplays Garswood’s superiority though, with him having come there easily and idled markedly in front, and I rated him as winning by an extra length and raised his mark to 115, which may still be on the conservative side.

    Garswood’s new rating certainly puts him in the mix for a place in the Guineas but there remains a doubt in my mind whether he’ll truly stay 1m, particularly considering he’ll likely come under pressure a deal further from home against the quality of horses he’ll meet.

    On the other side of the coin Olympic Glory promises to relish 1m when he tackles the French 2,000 Guineas having twice won at 7f in testing conditions as a juvenile. Quite what he achieved when successfully reappearing in the Greenham is tricky to gauge, but I’ve got a tentative figure of 112 on his performance.

    The sticking point in the Greenham is the runner-up Sir Patrick Moore, who went into winter quarters rated 100 and defied odds of 20-1 as he rather surprisingly split Olympic Glory (117) and Moohaajim (116). It’s possible Sir Patrick Moore was advantaged in racing prominently considering a time comparison with the Fred Darling returned a figure of just 96, whilst Olympic Glory looked rusty and Moohaajim was far from convincing with his finishing effort on his first try at 7f.

    Historical standards suggested a figure of around 112 on Olympic Glory and therefore 110 on Sir Patrick Moore and that’s where I’ve pitched it for now, with the intention of revisiting the race after Sir Patrick Moore’s next outing. It’s worth remembering Excelebration rather came from nowhere when chasing Frankel home in this race two years ago and we all know where he ended up!

    From the fillies’ trials I don’t think it will surprise anyone when I say I was more impressed with Hot Snap than Maureen. Henry Cecil’s half-sister to Midday had won a relatively ordinary maiden at Kempton on her sole juvenile start and improved markedly in spread-eagling her thirteen rivals in the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes, recording a time that compared favourably with the Free Handicap after both fields had gone a similar gallop.

    I based the race around the Moyglare winner Sky Lantern (who carried a 3lb penalty for that Group 1 success) in second and arrived at a figure of 113 for Hot Snap, which is the joint highest for a Nell Gwyn winner in the last six years alongside Music Show, and she’s undoubtedly open to a good deal more improvement after just two career starts. Hot Snap’s inexperience was there for all to see at Newmarket, both through the early stages when she had to be niggled to keep touch and late in the day as she strode away, and she might not be professional as some in the Qipco 1,000 Guineas in a fortnights time, though the step up to 1m promises to suit her well.

    Maureen on the other hand is battled-hardened from a four-race two-year-old campaign that yielded a Princess Margaret success and an unlucky Cherry Hinton defeat, and recorded a convincing success in the Dubai Duty Free Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury.

    Things were admittedly made easier for Maureen with the Cheveley Park winner Rosdhu Queen rather running herself out from the front – her Cheveley Park form has taken several knocks and has been dropped 3lb to 107 – and she didn’t have to match her juvenile figure of 106 by my reckoning to see off Agent Allison and Melbourne Memories.

    I had Maureen running to a bare figure of 105 but am quite happy to upgrade that to 106 with Richard Hughes having taken a pull approaching the final furlong after she’d moved quickly on to the heels of the leaders. She’d looked all speed to me as a juvenile but I’m having to rethink my stance on her chances of staying 1m now, and her pedigree gives every encouragement. Whether she has the further improvement to win a Guineas remains to be seen, however.

    As for Rosdhu Queen, she certainly travelled as though she retains her ability and she may still prove a force in good company this season, possibly at sprint trips.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Approach sets himself
    up for stellar summer
    FOR THOSE suffering withdrawal symptoms having being carried along on the wave of euphoria created by Frankel over the last couple of years, the imperious display of the 'new kid on the block' Dawn Approach in Saturday's Qipco 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket came along at just the right time, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

    The Champion two-year-old of Europe last year with a mark of 124, Jim Bolger's colt extended his unbeaten record to seven with a five-length demolition of the opposition and now looks the probable star of this summer. In truth it is not the easiest race to get a handle on in terms of ratings, with Kevin Ryan's Glory Awaits (beaten in a Doncaster nursery off 87 last September) appearing to excel in blinkers for the first time and running way above his pre-race mark of 95 in finishing second.

    For me the key to the race lies with eighth-placed Don't Bother Me (pre-race 103) and eleventh-placed Correspondent (92) running pretty much to their marks in being beaten ten lengths and 15 lengths respectively - working up from these two I have Dawn Approach returning a figure of 125, Glory Awaits 114, Van Der Neer 110 and the disappointing Toronado 109 in finishing fourth.

    I could conceivably have used Van Der Neer (114) as a guide, with Toronado performing just 1lb shy of his two-year-old mark of 114 but to me this drags up Don't Bother Me and Correspondent beyond previous levels and has Glory Awaits on 118 - good enough to have won two of the last ten renewals which I believe unlikely at this stage!

    At 125 Dawn Approach's performance would have been good enough to win 16 of the last 17 runnings of the 2,000 Guineas, the exception being Frankel's stunning 2011 renewal, so he is certainly something worth looking forward to in the coming months.

    Mystery of the race was the performance of the much-vaunted Toronado - I expressed myself a fan of the horse after his impressive comeback victory in the Craven and allotted him a mark of 121 for that success but whichever level you use for Saturday's race he came nowhere near reproducing that.

    To the naked eye he appeared a non-stayer, backed up by the fact that his time for the final furlong (14.20 secs) was the slowest amongst the first eight horses home and in essence he lost six lengths on Dawn Approach through that last furlong.

    For a horse touted as a possible Derby candidate this seems unlikely and I cannot believe his finishing position is a true representation of his ability - I can see him proving himself the second best horse in the race by the end of the season but for the time being I have dropped his rating 3lb to a new mark of 118 after revisiting the Craven.

    As Sunday's Qipco 1,000 Guineas forms part of the next racing week I haven't as yet finalised my figures for the race, although a winning performance of somewhere between 111 and 113 for Sky Lantern seems most likely at the present time.


    POWER PACKED
    The most prestigious 5f race of the 2013 season thus far was the Group 3 Pearl Bloodstock Palace House Stakes run at Newmarket on Saturday, writes Chris Nash.

    There was a disputed lead and so the pace looked solid. The time of the race was under standard (this was the only race on the card to manage that) and there was no trouble in running. All in all there are reasons to take a positive view of the form and I would hope (and expect) that it will prove reliable over the coming months.

    The race was won in tidy fashion by the Irish-trained Sole Power. Edward Lynam's six-year-old thrives in a well-run 5f race on quick ground and, given his conditions, can usually be relied upon to put in a performance - he won the Nunthorpe (Group 1) in 2010 and last year was second in the Temple Stakes (Group 2) and third in the Kings Stand Stakes (Group 1).

    Sole Power arrived with a rating of 113 and I have no reason to doubt that he ran his race again. Kingsgate Native finished a length behind him in second and has run to a figure of 110. This represents a recent best but he's a dual Group 1 winner going back and was rated as high as 120 after the 2008 Golden Jubilee.

    The last-time-out winners Tangerine Trees (pre-race 106) and Heeraat (pre-race 108) finished third and fourth. They were separated by a short-head and finished a length and a quarter behind Kingsgate Native. I have both running to 106 and their presence gives the form further substance. The next 5f pattern race is the Temple Stakes at Haydock on Saturday 25th May and plenty of these will likely renew rivalry there.


    HATS OFF AT ASCOT
    In the immediate aftermath of the 2013 Longines Sagaro Stakes, the Ascot Group 3 appeared as if it would be an easy race to assess, writes Stephen Hindle.

    The Queen's Estimate, joint top rated at the weights, emerged victorious by a length and three-quarters over Caucus, who went in rated 1lb higher than third-placed Sir Graham Wade and duly beat that rival half a length.

    Easy? Well, perhaps the second and third did run to their pre-race marks of 105 and 104, and with the fourth, Buckland, going in on just 94 (98 on the all-weather), it would be understandable to think the placed horses had not improved. Rightly or wrongly, however, I took a slightly different view.

    Ultimately I had Estimate running to her pre-race mark of 108, but that wasn't the determining factor. The form of Caucus' previous outing, a win in a Listed race at Newmarket back in September, has largely worked out.

    The runner-up that day, Cavalryman, is a solid Group-race performer, currently rated 115 having won a Group 3 in Dubai. Third home at Newmarket was Lost In The Moment, another Godolphin inmate with solid form at Group level, and my underlying feeling was that 105 could be a bit low for Caucus. After all, he has won at Listed level and has now been placed in a Group 3.

    I've since raised the level of Caucus' Newmarket win to tie in with the 108 I have him running to here, which obviously means a rise to 107 for Sir Graham Wade, who had a terrific 2012 and is very possibly still improving at the age of four.

    Buckland raises a few doubts as to the level as he appears to have run to 104, but he has been improving rapidly since stepped up in trip earlier in the year, racking up four straight wins in all-weather handicaps having been rated as low as 70 just over two months ago, and who's to say he hasn't improved again in this? What is for sure is that he's just as good on turf as all-weather.

    Whatever the form is worth, Estimate seems sure to go for the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot next. She'll have some improving to do but has had only six races so there's every possibility of that, and she certainly shapes as if she'll stay.

    She's also bred to get the trip, being a Monsun half-sister to the 1999 Gold Cup winner Enzeli.

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    Fahey to the fore in Chester Cup
    In this week’s blog, Stephen Hindle discusses the Chester Cup, won by Marwan Koukash’s Address Unknown, while Dominic Gardiner-Hill makes sense of the Qipco 1,000 Guineas that provided Richard Hughes with his first British Classic win on Sky Lantern, but featured a disappointing beaten favourite in Hot Snap. For jump enthusiasts, David Dickinson looks at Barizan’s victory in the Swinton Hurdle at Haydock.

    FAHEY TO THE FORE IN CHESTER CUP

    One man who’ll have fond memories of the 2013 Stanjames.com Chester Cup is Richard Fahey, whose only two runners in the race finished first and second, writes Stephen Hindle.

    Address Unknown, owned by Dr Marwan Koukash, who had no fewer than four runners in the race, ran out a half-length winner from Ingleby Spirit, despite failing to keep straight.

    As with the vast majority of these top staying handicaps, it’s usually a good idea to view the form positively. This year’s renewal seems no exception, with the next three home having run well in similar events in the past.

    Third-home Tominator won the Northumberland Plate in 2011 for the late Reg Hollinshead. Now in the care of Jonjo O’Neill, he looks just as good, if not better than ever having been beaten by less than a length here off a 10lb higher mark than when successful at Newcastle.

    Simenon, the joint top-weight, ran an excellent race in fourth, making up the best part of 10 lengths in the final 2f and beaten by just over a length at the line. He too has winning form in prestige events, having won twice at Royal Ascot last year.

    Joint-favourite Countrywide Flame was second in the Cesarewitch when last seen on the Flat but is better known as one of the top hurdlers around, having finished third in this year’s Champion Hurdle. He gives the Chester Cup form further substance in fifth, just a head behind Simenon.

    The first five had clearly run well and, in opening a small gap to the rest, it seemed sensible to think they had all run above their marks, so I raised all of them. That meant a 4lb rise to 101 for Address Unknown, 2lb to 93 for Ingleby Spirit, 2lb to 102 for Tominator and 1lb each for Simenon (to 108, though no actual rating change to put through as he is Irish-trained) and Countrywide Flame (to 93).

    Of those in behind, the other joint-favourite, Justification, didn’t have things go his way and is possibly worth another chance, while Suraj ended up with a fair bit to do on his first run in nearly 6 months and, despite finishing tenth, this wasn’t a bad effort. He ran several pounds below his rating though, so I still felt compelled to drop him a couple, and he is now eligible for 0-95s.

    Further back in the field, Buckland was disappointing having run so well in the Sagaro. This clearly wasn’t his running though and the level of the Sagaro stays the same, at least for now.

    Ile De Re won this last year and then followed up in the Northumberland Plate, but those races were run on much softer ground and he found himself back in thirteenth this time. Surprisingly for such a big handicap, the form of the Northumberland Plate hasn’t worked out and I’ve dropped Ile De Re by 2lb to 103.

    Finally, a quick mention for Mount Athos, who was left with little to beat due to the disappointing performance of Memphis Tennessee in the Boodles Diamond Ormonde Stakes. He looked as good as ever on his reappearance, leaving his Group 3 opposition trailing and appearing well worth his lofty rating of 117. Another owned by Marwan Koukash, a repeat bid in the Melbourne Cup, in which he finished fifth last year, is apparently the long-term goal again.

    SKY LANTERN PUTS CHAMPION ON CLOUD NINE

    Having witnessed one of the best 2,000 Guineas performances of recent years the previous day with Dawn Approach’s romp across the heath, the Qipco 1,000 Guineas produced a closer and more thrilling finish but a winner that ranks at the lower end of recent winners in terms of her rating, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

    I am in no way decrying Sky Lantern and hope that she can go on and improve upon her rating as the season progresses but at the present time it is hard to raise her from her pre-race rating of 111 – a figure which puts her on a par with Jacqueline Quest (disqualified) and Special Duty (awarded the race) in the 2010 renewal.

    Having returned figures of 111 when winning the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh last year and when runner-up in the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes on her reappearance, Sky Lantern appears to performed to that figure for a third time.

    Under normal circumstances one would expect a Classic winning performance to be an improvement on what has gone before but in this case I find that hard to justify. Half-length runner-up Just The Judge went into the race rated 107 and is raised 3lb to a new mark of 110 for her effort, fourth placed Winning Express is also raised 3lb from 104 to 107, Irish challenger Snow Queen had a mark of 100 pre-race and is raised 6lb to 106 for finishing fifth, the winner’s stable mate Maureen is adjudged to have run to her 106 in sixth while eighth placed Masarah goes up 5lb to 100 for her effort.

    In short four of the first eight home have been raised, two stay the same, third placed Moth didn’t have a published rating pre-race so leaving French challenger What A Name as the only top eight finisher to have run below form – as I said, it is difficult to get Sky Lantern any higher!

    One slight query I had post-race concerned the rides given to Moth and Maureen – both flew late and finished in eye-catching style. I cannot decide at the present time if Messrs O’Brien and Peslier gave them too much to do or whether they are a pair of fillies who basically need a stiffer test than Sunday’s mile presented – hopefully the answer will become clear as the season progresses.

    In terms of revised ratings the problem horse from my perspective was vanquished favourite Hot Snap, ninth, who was one of the first beaten. She was the top rated filly going into the race with a mark of 113 gained when winning the Nell Gwyn but blew out in no uncertain terms on the big day.

    It is unusual to leave the winner of a trial rated above the winner of a Classic but given that she beat Sky Lantern and Winning Express pretty comprehensively in the Nell Gwyn it is safe to say she didn’t run anywhere near her best on Sunday and her form has a solid look to it.

    Given the subsequent reports from connections it appears all was not well with her and I am happy to leave her on 113 for the time being. Fingers crossed she returns later in the season to prove that decision right or wrong...

    BARIZAN BOUNCES BACK

    Barizan’s return to top form in winning the Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock on Saturday was a welcome sight for his backers, but the long gap back to the third horse gave me a considerable headache, writes David Dickinson.

    Granted the race was transformed by morning rain and two high profile withdrawals but my problem was that every horse finishing between third and ninth had run to their mark last time out, all bar one of them within the previous six weeks. So just how much should I call the 19 lengths between second and third. Second home Mr Mole, had travelled like a really good horse but has been described as quirky - his head goes in the air somewhat and he does hang - but that said he continued to close near the line.

    So my first decision was to call the half a length that Barizan beat him 2lb as the winner looked decidedly on top after the last. I also then decided that those between third and ninth should not move significantly in the ratings but that still left the problem of what to call that 19 length gap.

    I took the view that the much publicised wind operation and the first time tongue tie had seen Evan Williams coax his charge back to something like his best for this considerable prize. At his best as a juvenile, Barizan was rated 146 for his Triumph Hurdle second, a rating that included seven pounds of weight-for-age. The rating of 138 I have allotted him for this success is within a pound of that figure with the weight for age taken out but also gives him a chance in a further handicap if he can recapture that high mark of 146.

    The runner up Mr Mole goes up by two pounds less to 152 from 142.

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    Society rocks the Knavesmire

    In this week's blog, Stewart Copeland assesses Society Rock's victory in the Duke of York Stakes, while Stephen Hindle explains Mad Moose's rise in the weights following his second to Mount Athos in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester.

    SOCIETY ROCKS THE KNAVESMIRE

    Plenty of runners and plenty of quality was the order of the day in this year's renewal of the Group 2 Clipper Logistics Duke of York Stakes, the first major turf sprint over 6f of the season on these shores.

    The weather was unseasonably cold and wet, with a strong headwind as well, which meant conditions were tough for all at the Knavesmire, both equine and human, writes Stewart Copeland.

    A total of 17 went to post, and at least seven of the field had already shown a level of form good enough to win an average renewal. It was one of those, Society Rock, who triumphed on the day, which made up for a somewhat unlucky defeat in the race last year.

    Society Rock's rating of 117 meant he was the joint highest rated British sprinter in last year's World Thoroughbred Rankings and with his victory here, he showed himself as good as ever.

    Carrying a 5lb penalty for his success in the 6f Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock last September, he got the better of a stirring finish with Lethal Force to prevail by a head.

    This meant Society Rock comes out a 6lb better horse than the runner-up, who's rated 111 on the strength of his success in the 7f Group 2 Betfred Hungerford Stakes at Newbury last year.

    A rather neat fit you could say, and Society Rock's winning performance was as good as a performance we've seen in this race over the past decade.

    Back in third place a further one and a quarter lengths behind was the Irish-trained Gordon Lord Byron. The highest rated in the field at 118 based on his win in the 7f Group 1 Foret Stakes at last year's Arc meeting, which also meant he had to shoulder a Group 1 penalty as well.

    I have him running to 113 and he emerges with plenty of credit as his low draw seemed a disadvantage, given he raced away from the main pace down the centre of the track, which the first two tracked.

    Arguably the unlucky horse of the race though was Hawkeyethenoo. Travelling strongly just off the pace, he looked set to throw down a possible winning challenge when denied a clear run over a furlong out.

    Once in the clear inside the last he finished strongly to finish a further nose back in fourth. With an uninterrupted passage he would have surely gone close. Currently rated 112, I have him running to 108 but given the trouble he encountered I've left his rating unchanged.

    The above may all renew rivalry in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot next month, with Society Rock trying to repeat his success of 2011, and regain the crown he relinquished to the wonderful mare Black Caviar last year. With another likely strong overseas challenge as well this year, it promises to be a fascinating affair.

    THE MAD PROFESSIONAL?

    In an article printed in the Racing Post on Wednesday 15th May under the headline "Mad Moose owners hit out over ratings rise", my revised handicap mark for the gelding after his second in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester was described as "crazy" by Tom Palin from Middleham Park Racing, which owns the gelding, writes Stephen Hindle.

    Another member of the syndicate, Nick Bradley, suggested via his Twitter feed that I "must have been watching a different race" to him. They didn't bother to contact me for an explanation before blasting the change via their respective forms of communication, but for those of you who are interested in how I came to the new rating, I will do my best to explain.

    The winner of the Ormonde, Mount Athos, is a high-class individual who has a rating of 117, and won as easily as his mark suggested he should given the disappointing performance of the favourite, Memphis Tennessee.

    Mr Bradley accuses me in the article of reading everything literally, by which I assume he thinks I have not factored in extra for the winner's style of victory.

    I can assure him that I have, as otherwise the rating for Mad Moose would have been nearer 105. I certainly haven't taken the 14 lengths back to third-placed Communicator literally, as then it would have been somewhere around 115 and the winner would have gone up.

    As with many small-field non handicaps, the form is open to doubt, and it may well be that I have rated it too high or too low.

    Just as when Mad Moose made his Flat debut at Doncaster, however, I was committed to coming up with a figure, and to do that I not only took the ratings of the winner and the third into account, but also race averages, which are a common tool for handicappers when assessing races that are difficult to evaluate.

    To understand race averages, I should quickly point out that we use "performance ratings" to help us compile our official ratings.

    Performance ratings are essentially a measure of a horse's performance in an individual race relative to other horses. From 2008 to 2012 inclusive, the average performance rating of the runner-up in the Ormonde is 104. For the third it is 101, which actually suggests I've taken a conservative view of Mad Moose's run.

    The "crazy" part of the article refers to the fact that Mad Moose is a jumps horse now rated 100 on the Flat. He may have started his career under National Hunt rules, but as far as I'm concerned, racehorses are racehorses and should be judged on what they do on the track.

    Some make better jumpers and others make better Flat horses, but more often than not if a horse shows a decent lev el of ability in one code it does in the other too. Sticking with Chester, Ile de Re was rated 123 over hurdles before winning last year's Chester Cup, then won off a Flat mark of 101 in the Northumberland Plate next time out.

    Mad Moose is currently rated 143 over fences and 139 over hurdles. He finished second to none other than Sprinter Sacre in a Grade 1 chase at Cheltenham in January.

    Admittedly, "The Black Aeroplane" was, as usual, untroubled but Only Sizing Europe and Cue Card have finished closer to him this year, so is it really crazy to think Mad Moose could perform to 100 on the Flat?

    I admit that a 21lb rise is a hefty amount in one go, but let's remember we are talking about a horse who'd had only one previous run on the Flat, not one who'd been beaten off 79 in handicaps half a dozen times in succession.

    The less that is known about a horse's form, and those of some of its rivals, as at Doncaster, the more the likelihood of initial assessments being wide of the mark increases. The Doncaster race has worked out very well so far, and I have gone back and raised the level twice since taking my initial view.

    Apparently, the reason Mad Moose's connections were so dismayed is because they wanted to run him in the 0-95 Ascot Stakes.

    Mr Bradley is quoted in the Racing Post article as saying "he won't get in now", which is interesting as even if he were on 95 now, they would still have to give him at least one more run on the Flat due to the value of the race.

    Let's pretend for a moment that Mad Moose's connections had their hearts set on another race at Royal Ascot, the Queen Alexandra Stakes, and that Mad Moose were on 95 or less.

    That particular contest is subject to an elimination sequence if oversubscribed, and the lowest rated horses on the Flat are eliminated first.

    In the unlikely event that a mass of 95+ horses were entered, including Ormonde third Communicator, I wonder if Middleham Park Racing would be up in arms over the fact that Mad Moose would be at risk of being balloted out in favour of the 96-rated Communicator, having beaten him at Chester.

    As public handicappers we are supposed to favour the majority over the minority. Qualified for the Ascot Stakes or not, if I rate Mad Moose 95 when I feel he is more deserving of 100, it would be unfair on the connections of other horses in the Ascot Stakes and it would deny another horse a run in the race.

    One of the few downsides to this job is that many owners and trainers, perhaps understandably but frustratingly for us, have eyes only for their own horses when airing their views.

    GLEN'S DIAMOND SPARKLES IN YORKSHIRE CUP

    In more recent news, a much easier race to assess was the Group 2 QIPCO Yorkshire Cup, with Glen's Diamond clinging on by the narrowest of margins.

    Glen's Diamond seems to relish this contest, having turned in what was at the time a career best when finishing runner-up to Red Cadeaux in it last year. He started a 25-1 outsider of eight in both runnings, but defied those odds this time round in a thrilling finish, passing the post a nose in front of Top Trip.

    There was something of an international feel to the first three, with Glen's Diamond trained in Britain, Top Trip in France and third-home Royal Diamond in Ireland. Returning Glen's Diamond to his previous highest mark of 113 seemed the obvious thing to do as that would have Top Trip and Royal Diamond running very close to their recent figures.

    Despite being a lower class event, I rated the win of Willing Foe in the following day's Listed JLT Aston Park Stakes more highly.

    Willing Foe had looked a horse going places when taking the Ebor last year, when he had Royal Diamond back in second. He met with defeat on his final three starts of 2012 but possibly wasn't ideally suited by the soft ground and, back on firmer turf on his reappearance, he stretched six lengths clear of the 110-rated Harris Tweed at Newbury.

    I doubt Harris Tweed ran to his mark but there was little getting away from a fairly lofty figure for Willing Foe with nothing in the race, save for the 85-rated Saint Hilary in sixth, holding down the form.

    Using race averages as a guide, anything above 115 would be a significantly high figure for this event. I think Willing Foe is a very talented horse, but 116 or higher would put him on a par with some of the Group 1 stayers I've seen over the past 12 months or so, and I felt happier slotting him in just behind those for now.

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    Gloomy name, bright future?

    Following a busy week of British Racing, the BHA Handicappers have plenty to discuss in this week's blog.

    Stephen Hindle looks back at Thursday's Group 3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown, whilst Chris Nash assesses the most exciting finish of the weekend - Duke of Firenze's last-gasp win in the Investec Dash.

    Meanwhile, Dominic Gardiner-Hill covers the best of the 1m action from Sandown, Epsom and Doncaster including Gregorian's victory in the Investec Diomed Stakes. The Investec Oaks and Derby were the highlights of the week, both are covered in Phil Smith's Head of Handicapping blog.

    GLOOMY NAME, BRIGHT FUTURE?

    The Seymour Pierce Henry II Stakes at Sandown looked very interesting beforehand. Last year's Gold Cup winner Colour Vision was in the line-up, as were other highly rated stayers, namely Times Up, successful twice in Group 2 company last year, Cavalryman, who won a Group 3 in Dubai in March, and High Jinx, who was last seen finishing second in the Group 1 Prix du Cadran at Longchamp in October, writes Stephen Hindle.

    With so many big names in attendance, it was a race I was looking forward to and on paper it looked like an above average Group 3. They don't run the races on paper, however, and none of the above named quartet managed to even reach the placings.

    Whilst three of those four were coming back from long absences and the other, Cavalryman, was having his first race back in Britain, it was a little deflating to see the race dominated by the three lowest rated horses going in, and as such it can't be viewed as a vintage renewal.

    The only horse to run in Thursday's race not entered in the Gold Cup is the winner, French filly Gloomy Sunday. She's unexposed over long distances, though she'd given an indication as to her stamina when finishing second in a Listed race at Saint Cloud in April over an extended 1m7f - at the time the furthest she'd run.

    A bigger question mark as to the level of this form comes from the second, Number Theory. The five year old progressed rapidly last year, winning three times at Haydock and also finished third in the Ebor, but this is another level altogether.

    In third was Model Pupil, who did at least come in as the most unexposed in the field having had only half a dozen races previously. Also, he'd never run beyond 1m4f.

    I felt Model Pupil was probably the horse to concentrate on when it came to rating the race. Despite being rated only 104 going in, he was joint fourth in the betting and surely ran to a similar level as in the past.

    He was rated 107 after finishing second in last year's Chester Vase, and I elected to raise him to 106 after this to get him higher than some of those he beat and to fit in with the overall view I wanted to take of this race, which was that in the end it was just an average renewal.

    A figure of 106 for Model Pupil equated to 109 for Gloomy Sunday and 108 for Number Theory, who was previously rated 98.

    It seems a big enough rise for the last-named, but the race has to be viewed as a whole and if you remove Number Theory from the result, this level would not look particularly high, and as already mentioned he was progressive last year and in addition to that he had not previously encountered 2m.

    The steady early pace possibly didn't suit High Jinx, whose previous race had been at 2m4f, and I left him on 113. I also left Cavalryman and Times Up, both 115, as there seems little wrong with their most recent form.

    Colour Vision is another who possibly would have appreciated more of a test, but this still has to go down as somewhat disappointing and he has failed to repeat his Gold Cup form several times now. I dropped him to 114, which reflects his best form since Royal Ascot.

    FIRENZE DASHES HOME

    One of the feature 5f handicap races of the season is the Investec Dash at Epsom on Derby day. It is usually an action packed race and the 2013 renewal was no different, writes Chris Nash.

    The race was a cracking spectacle and produced a finish where the result only took shape in the last 30 yards. This contest is famed as a speed test and is frequently won by horses ridden handy - indeed the last three winners (Stone Of Folca, Captain Dunne and Bertoliver) were all ridden in that way.

    Deep inside the final furlong it looked like that pattern would be repeated with Fair Value in front and seemingly in control only to be swamped late on by horses who rocketed home from nowhere.

    Duke Of Firenze took the spoils by a neck from Smoothtalkinrascal with a further neck back to Dinkum Diamond. Fair Value crossed the line in fourth just a short-head behind the third and the first 12 home were covered by less than three lengths - a handicappers delight.

    The first two were still in the last four at the furlong marker and the way they scythed through the field made tremendous viewing.

    Duke Of Firenze ran off a mark of 97 and the narrow margin of his victory means that he can only be reassessed 4lb higher to 101.

    Smoothtalkinrascal was burdened with a penalty for winning his previous race at York and so lined up off 103 even though his current rating was only 100. He will be raised to 106.

    Both horses have shown progressive form this season and both returned career best efforts on Saturday. As has been pointed out in this feature on a few occasions the difference between top class sprint handicap form and the level required to be competitive in Listed and Group races is very marginal and there is every chance that the first two will make their mark at a higher level before the season is out.

    The presence of Dinkum Diamond in third gives substance to that argument as in 2011 he was placed four times in Listed sprints and once in a Group 3 reaching a peak rating of 108. His run on Saturday will see him rated 103. Fair Value goes up 1lb from 90 to 91 and the nature of the finish means that only slight alterations (if any) are needed to the ratings of the 5th - 12th placed finishers.

    THISTLE BIRD FLIES AT EPSOM

    Whilst the emerging stars of the middle distance category took centre stage last week there was still some good quality racing for me to enjoy in the mile category, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

    Best of the action took place in the Investec Diomed Stakes (Group 3) on Friday at Epsom when John Gosden's Gregorian returned to somewhere near the best of last year's form to take the race ahead of Penitent and Gabrial.

    Rated 114 in last year's World Thoroughbred Rankings on the back of placed efforts in the St James's Palace and the Prix Jean Prat, I have Gregorian running to 113 at Epsom in the belief that runner-up Penitent has returned to his best of 115 given that he had some cut in the ground for the first time this year.

    Third placed Gabrial has performed to 110 but will remain on his pre-race figure of 111 as I'm not entirely convinced being held up so far off the pace in a moderately run contest saw him to best effect.

    Earlier in the afternoon Roger Charlton's wonderfully consistent Thistle Bird justified top rating in the Investec Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3) with a battling success over Gifted Girl and Ladys First.

    Looking back at her form of last season it is possible that she was slightly underrated at 107 and on the back of her success last week I have raised her to 108, with easy Ascot handicap winner Gifted Girl going up 2lb from 104 to 106 and Ladys First remaining on her pre-race mark of 105.

    Earlier in the week Montiridge repaid trainer Richard Hannon's faith in him with a convincing success in the Heron Stakes at Sandown.

    With just four runners going to post it is not an easy race to get a handle on in terms of level, but the winner stretched nicely clear up the hill and I have raised his mark 5lb to 109 - there will be greater challenges ahead for him and it will be interesting to see if he can justify that mark in stronger company.

    As far as the week's handicaps were concerned it was a mixed bag.

    It was satisfying to see old stagers Spa's Dancer (career best off 92 when winning at Sandown, goes to 97) and Vainglory (first success since October 2011 off 85 at Epsom, goes to 90) both score but what looked a competitive three year old handicap at Doncaster on Saturday was blown apart by John Gosden's Remote who landed the contest by six lengths.

    I took a fair bit of stick for the result from a number of trainers on Monday morning and, as we always do in these situations, you go back and have a look at its previous form to see if anything could (or should) have been done differently - in this case I don't believe there was and Remote is just a fast improving colt who was having only his third run.

    I have raised his mark from 89 to 103 and will be interested to see which path they follow with him now - will they run off the new rating in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot or head straight into Listed/Group company.

    Whichever it is, I suspect his end of season rating may well be in excess of his current perch!

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    Happy and glorious - and some rattling good races
    ROYAL ASCOT is always the pinnacle of the summer season and this year's jamboree will go down as one of the all-time greats.

    A royal winner of the most prestigious event of the week proved a fantastic centrepiece and a supporting card featuring a poignant double for Warren Place and the return of 'the real' Dawn Approach ensures it will live long in the memory.

    The Lady Cecil-trained pair will be discussed in Phil Smith's Head of Handicapping Blog which focuses on all of the 1m2f and 1m4f action, but there's a bumper update here on the best from the other distances, leading off with Her Majesty's infamous Gold Cup success.

    ESTIMATE COMES OUT BEST
    What looked beforehand to be an open Gold Cup ended up going to the favourite, with the Queen's filly Estimate outstaying the boys, writes Stephen Hindle.

    Quite how much of the money that made her the jolly was put down more in hope than in expectation I'm not sure, but those who did back her, and many who didn't, were celebrating a royal winner as Estimate held on well to score by a neck from the Irish-challenger Simenon, with Top Trip filling third only a length further back for France, in what was a thrilling finish.

    On official marks Estimate actually went in to the race as one of the lower rated, but that didn't really tell the whole story. Staying has always looked her game, as she showed when making a name for herself when upped to 2m for the first time in last year's Queen's Vase, winning by five lengths.

    That race, however, is traditionally filled with horses that are unproven in Group company and is therefore not usually a contest where the winner can be given a high rating. It's no surprise that a further step up in trip has brought about more improvement.

    She clearly loves Ascot, having won not only that race but another Group 3, the Sagaro Stakes, on her 2013 reappearance. Furthermore, as the only filly in the Gold Cup, she was receiving weight all round, which means that even though I've factored in an extra 1lb for ground lost when edging to her left and possibly idling, the best horse in the race on the maths is the second Simenon.

    Like Estimate, Simenon also came into the race rated 108, but he was a real eye-catcher on his 2013 reappearance, making up any number of lengths in the final two furlongs of the Chester Cup and finishing a good fourth off a mark of 107. Another who likes the Royal meeting, Simenon had won both the Ascot Stakes and Queen Alexandra Stakes last year.

    The first two had clearly improved, so I looked closely at Top Trip in order to set the level. Rated 114 internationally last year, it seemed more than reasonable to assume he's at least as good this time round.

    Another reason for thinking that Top Trip was worth 114 was the fifth, German raider Altano. Rated 112 going in, Altano ended up further back than ideal the way the race unfolded and, when faced with the choice of his having run to his mark or 1lb below it, I felt more comfortable having him just below.

    Colour Vision isn't a great help when it comes to rating the race. Whilst this clearly represents a return to form, he can't be rated as highly as when successful in last year's Gold Cup when he received a mark of 117.

    Even with the view I've taken, I have sixth-placed El Salvador and seventh-placed Model Pupil outperforming their marks, so it seems sensible at this point to err on the side of caution.

    Estimate comes out 114, with Simenon 115 and Top Trip another 114. I have Colour Vision running to 112 but as he was hanging, I've lowered him only to 113.

    Overall it comes out as a sub-standard renewal in terms of the winner and second, yet the ratings of those a bit further back are higher than average, which partly underlines a lack of a true pace but I think also confirms that it was an open Group 1 which, if lacking real quality at the top, did have some strength in depth.

    With that said about the winner, Sir Michael Stoute thinks Estimate could continue to improve judging by his comments post-race and I certainly wouldn't disagree. She's made only seven racecourse appearances, she's unbeaten at 2m+ and is unlikely to be sent to the well too often, while her stamina has arguably still not been fully tested.


    THREE-YEAR-OLDS PROVE THE BEST BY MILES
    Is anybody else out there getting a slight sense of "deja vu" with the personal duel that is starting to develop between this year's top three-year-old milers Dawn Approach and Toronado, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

    Remember 2008 when Henrythenavigator beat Raven's Pass in the 2,000 Guineas, the St James's Palace and again in the Sussex Stakes - on each occasion by a smaller margin than the previous run - only for John Gosden's colt to finally wrench away the miling crown from his old adversary in the Queen Elizabeth II at Ascot in October?

    I wonder if a similar scenario is due to be played out in front of us this summer.

    Back to 1m after the Derby debacle Dawn Approach (124+) landed the St James's Palace by a short head from Richard Hannon's colt (123+) to take the personal score between them to two-nil but boy did Toronado make him work hard and many felt he was an unlucky loser - both suffered interference when Glory Awaits (111 but retains pre-race 114) ducked left two furlongs out but some felt Toronado got the worst of it.

    The level for the race is gained using French challenger Mshawish running to his pre-race 114, suggesting third placed Mars has improved again to a mark of 117 and that fifth and sixth placed Glory Awaits and Dundonnel both ran 3lb off their very best.

    A performance figure of 124+ for Dawn Approach is the second highest posted in the race since the turn of the century with only Shamardal's 125 when winning the race at York in 2005 being higher, whilst Toronado's figure of 123 would have been good enough to win eight of the previous ten runnings of the race - they are two high class colts and will hopefully both turn up fit and well for the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood for round three!

    From a visual point of view, the most impressive winner over 1m all week was Sky Lantern in the Coronation Stakes.

    Under a masterful ride from Richard Hughes, she overcame being drawn 16 to draw right away from the field and stamp her authority with a four-length success.

    The figures for the race appear to fit quite well and I have taken the view that third placed Just The Judge has reproduced her 110 performances from both the English and the Irish 1,000 Guineas, suggesting that Sky Lantern has run to 119 and French-trained runner-up Kenhope has performed to 111.

    This was another performance well up to scratch in the recent history of the race, with only Indian Ink's (another for the Hannon/Hughes combo) six length romp in 2007 being considered superior since the turn of the century at 121.

    As far as the older milers are concerned, Farhh's absence from the opening Queen Anne left the race with a very open look about it and so it proved with two of those left trailing in his wake in the Lockinge fighting out the finish.

    A winning figure of 118 suggests that Declaration of War's performance in the race was superior to only that of Ad Valorem (117) in 2006 but the way he quickened having met trouble in running suggest there may be more to come and he would make a fascinating gatecrasher to the Dawn Approach/Toronado party at Goodwood should Aidan O'Brien choose to tread that path!


    MAY THE FORCE BE WITH YOU
    The 6f Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes has gained a reputation in recent years of attracting a truly international field and this year was no exception, with challengers from the US, Australia, Bahrain, France and Ireland taking on their British hosts, writes Stewart Copeland.

    Much of the focus beforehand was on the favourite Society Rock, and whether he could repeat his 2011 success in the race having shown himself as good as ever in the Group 2 Duke of York on his seasonal reappearance.

    However the honours instead fell to the Clive Cox-trained four-year-old colt Lethal Force, who'd been beaten a head into second by Society Rock on the Knavesmire, comprehensively turning the tables despite being 5lb worse off.

    Soon at the head of affairs racing with plenty of enthusiasm, Lethal Force was asked to stamp his authority on the race over two furlongs out and never looked in danger of being caught despite the strong late challenge of the patiently-ridden Society Rock. The winning distance was a decisive two lengths, with a further one and three quarter lengths back to the Bahrain runner, Krypton Factor.

    When two horses are ridden in such contrasting fashion, my main focus is to consider whether one has gained an advantage over the other as a result of the tactics employed, and how that would impact on my overall view of the race. The sectional timings which were available at Royal Ascot proved a big help for my analysis.

    Having studied them closely I came to the conclusion that even though Society Rock might have been at a slight disadvantage given how the race panned out, I'm of the opinion that Lethal Force still ran out a worthy winner on the day.

    A further overall time comparison with the Wokingham winner, the 109-rated York Glory, shows Lethal Force covered the 6f in 0.43s quicker, whilst carrying an additional 2lb as well, which is what you'd expect given the respective quality on show in the two races.

    Therefore, having decided that, the next job was what to rate Lethal Force. As we do in such races, we not only calculate the level on the current form of those he beat, but also how it fits in a historical context based on the standards we keep, and what we would normally expect a winner to achieve in the race.

    Both these methods pointed me to a figure of 120, easily a career best for Lethal Force having been rated 111 coming in to the race, but one fully deserved in my view. That also meant Society Rock ran a shade below his rating of 117, which tied in with how I felt the race panned out.

    To add further substance to Lethal Force's rating, this meant that Krypton Factor reproduced his previous turf best rating of 111, which he ran to in last year's renewal won by Black Caviar. It's worth pointing out his current rating of 117 is based on his form on the Tapeta at Meydan, which at present looks his favoured surface.

    Since the turn of the millennium the average winning rating has been in the region of 117/118 so it's fair to say this year's renewal looks above average. Indeed this past decade only a couple of winners have posted a higher figure in the race with Starspangledbanner in 2010, and Choisir in 2003, interestingly the sire of the aforementioned, both achieving 121.

    WAR IN COMMAND AT THIS EARLY STAGE
    Most of the two-year-old races at Royal Ascot were won impressively resulting in above-average figures, writes Matthew Tester.

    I got the impression that we have a really good crop of winners but that there was not huge strength in depth behind them.

    Both the fillies' races were won decisively. Rizeena comes in at 106 for her Queen Mary and I really think she will rate higher in time. The form of the placed horses rather holds down the figures although you had to be impressed by the style of the win.

    Kiyoshi earned a 112 from me for her rather wayward win in the Albany, beating horses like Sandiva and Heart Focus who were already proven performers. I was also very taken with Joyeuse who got anything but a clear run and should prove much better for the experience.

    The big colts' races also worked out strongly. War Command is pencilled in for now at an exceptional 119. This is the same sort of figure as for other wide-margin Coventry winners like Canford Cliffs and Three Valleys.

    He must have taken connections massively by surprise to be their third-string and go off at 20-1. A trainer would normally know if he had a two-year-old who was that far ahead of everything else, so I will feel more comfortable once he gets the chance to do it again.

    Three Valleys went on to win the Middle Park and was then beaten only a head in the Dewhurst. Canford Cliffs came back from injury to win five Group 1s. Let us hope that War Command is the real deal.

    No Nay Never smashed the juvenile course record to win the Norfolk. He did it from the front whereas every other two-year-old winner of the week had been held up. I was really impressed and he gets an above average 110 for the win.

    Berkshire also made a great impression with the style of his victory in the Chesham. He only had to run to 104 to win it but he could be a major player in the championship races at the end of the season.

    Finally, Extortionist earned a 104 in the Windsor Castle, but the one who really caught my eye there was My Catch in fifth. He made up plenty of ground late on and can be expected to step up considerably on his 102 performance.

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    Tominator pounces
    late to regain Plate
    THERE was a popular result in the 2013 renewal of the Northumberland Plate, Tominator getting up in the dying strides to win the race for a second time, writes Stephen Hindle.

    Successful in the 2011 version when trained by Reg Hollinshead, Tominator didn't run in the "Pitmen's Derby" last year, but he'd turned in plenty of good efforts in between visits to Newcastle, winning at Chester last season and, after joining current trainer Jonjo O'Neill, twice over hurdles.

    A good third in the Chester Cup meant he had a career high mark of 102 to defy this time round, and he also carried top weight. Anyone with the theory that top weights can't win big staying handicaps had been shown otherwise by Aaim To Prosper in last year's Cesarewitch though, and Tominator became another to defy 9st 10lb, mugging Oriental Fox, who had looked the likely winner.

    Whilst the time is nothing special, they didn't appear to hang around and it certainly wasn't a disadvantage to come from off the pace, all the principals having either been held up or raced in mid-division. Some of the runners were a bit tight for room in the rush for home but at the same time there seemed no major hard-luck stories, with the possible exception of Brockwell, who could arguably be counted unfortunate not to have finished an outright third, having ultimately dead-heated with Mubaraza after a troubled passage left him with a fair bit to do.

    My Irish counterparts had fifth-placed Scatter Dice running to 91 when third off 90 at Down Royal a week earlier. She raced off her old mark of 90 here, this being an early closing race, and it seemed reasonable to think that she was worth that 1lb rise considering this was such a competitive contest.

    Mubaraza was due a 1lb rise of his own after finishing fourth in the Ascot Stakes, and after another good run in a highly competitive staying handicap, I decided to raise him effectively by 2lb, to 94.

    As already mentioned, Brockwell didn't have the best of passages through, but I wasn't convinced enough to credit him with an outright third so I asked him to also compete from a 2lb higher mark next time, putting him up to 92 from 90.

    He'd finished a length and a quarter behind Oriental Fox, so Mark Johnston's charge went up by 4lb to 99. I called the short head from winner to second the standard 1lb, meaning a rise of 5lb for Tominator to 107.

    By all accounts, Tominator didn't come cheap to his new owner, but that is unsurprising considering his ability and as the saying goes, you get what you pay for.

    HANNON AND HUGHES PRODUCE ANOTHER WINNER

    The 7f Group 3 bet365 Criterion Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday was won in game fashion by the Richard Hannon trained Producer. During the race he didn't look the most likely winner, but gradually wore down the front running Red Jazz to gain the second Group 3 win of his career writes Mark Olley.

    Sometimes races are fairly straightforward to assess and this was one of those occasions. Producer (111) and Red Jazz (109) came into the race with 2lb separating them and as the winning margin was three quarters of a length, which is equal to 2lb over 7f, I left them both on their pre-race ratings. Our race standards have an average runner-up performing to 109 so this further pointed to a status quo with the ratings.

    Pastoral Player blew his chance at the start where he reared and gave away several lengths. Last time out, at Haydock, he finished two lengths in front of Red Jazz when just finding Amarillo too good in the John Of Gaunt Stakes. He clearly has more than enough ability to win a race of this nature, in fact he won that above Haydock race last year, but he does not seem to win the share of races his ability suggests he should.

    I must also mention Producer's stablemate Libranno who has won this race for the previous two seasons. The down side of those wins meant he was conceding between 8lb and 11lb to all of his rivals and despite finishing seventh he was only 1lb below last year's winning rating.

    Earlier in the week the Arkle Finance Eternal Stakes at Warwick saw 1,000 Guineas fourth Winning Express return to winning ways. She was just pushed out to comfortably win and did not need to improve upon her rating of 107.

    Seven furlongs looks her trip and the Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood in early August looks an ideal target, especially as her 107 rating would have been good enough to win the race in four of the last five years.

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    Al Kazeem reaffirmed his dominance in Eclipse
    SATURDAY'S Coral-Eclipse brought together the winners of Royal Ascot's Queen Anne and Princes of Wales's Stakes, with a three-year-old representative in the shape of St James's Palace third Mars also thrown into the pot, and Al Kazeem reaffirmed his standing as the dominant 1m2f performer at present with a decisive two-length success, writes Graeme Smith.

    That reads like quite a billing in terms of the clash that took place at Sandown, but in truth Al Kazeem had to do nothing more than reproduce his Ascot running to gain his third straight Group 1 win.

    He'd already accounted for Mukhadram at Ascot, where that rival had arguably been advantaged by an enterprising ride, whilst the Ballydoyle pair of Declaration of War and Mars had 8lb and 9lb improvement to find respectively to reach Al Kazeem's 126 level. In fact Pastorius and The Fugue were rated as bigger dangers to Al Kazeem had they given their running.

    As things went Mukhadram wasn't allowed to get away this time and Al Kazeem was set to beat him more comfortably than at Ascot even before hampering him badly with half a furlong to run - by my reckoning the margin between them would have been around a length and a half. It was only that interference that cost Mukhadram second and he remains rated ahead of Declaration of War on his post-Ascot 125.

    Both myself and Irish Handicapper Mark Bird agreed that Declaration of War had promised to be suited by a return to 1m2f (and that he'd overcome slight trouble at Ascot) and were happy to increase his rating from 118 to 122 - reflecting his two length or 4lb inferiority to Al Kazeem, whose figure we based the race around.

    There's been some conjecture of what Mars' best trip is of late and we rated him as improving 2lb from his St James's Palace figure of 117 on this first try at 1m2f.

    This level is a shade higher than the ‘average' Eclipse on the historical standards and it might well be that the levels of both this and the Prince of Wales's need revisiting in time, but for now this looks a solid starting point to me.

    Whilst Al Kazeem achieved the best form from the last seven days, his wasn't the only noteworthy performance and John Gosden's Flying Officer could be on his way to pattern company judged by his taking success in a 1m2f handicap at Windsor on Sunday. He's a brother to his connections' recent Great Voltigeur winners Lucarno (went on to land the St Leger) and Thought Worthy and had made a winning debut and finished seventh to the subsequent Irish Derby winner Trading Leather in an Autumn Stakes that's proved extremely strong in his two juvenile starts.

    He was reappearing over a trip that may well prove short of his best at Windsor but accounted for a small but select field by upwards of three and a half lengths without having to come under maximum pressure. The runner-up Sennockian Star went one better at Carlisle later in the week whilst the third-placed Duroble Man represents some very strong formlines and remains with further potential, not least over longer trips.

    All three came in for a rise with Flying Officer's mark going up 12lb to 100, which consisted of 9lb for the bare form and a further 3lb for what I thought he had in hand. Obviously I can't handicap him on further improvement he ‘might' make as he works his way to 1m4f so I'm well aware he could make that look lenient down the line.

    NURSERY RACES

    The first two-year-old handicap of the year, known as a "nursery", was at Haydock on Fridaywrites Matthew Tester.

    People often ask why we run the early nurseries before publishing handicap marks. Until we have run a few, the ratings are incredibly fluid. For every new race last week, I moved two or three others based on the fresh evidence. It is the early nurseries that give me the best chance to firm up the figures.

    There are several advantages to owners and trainers in not rushing to publish.

    Take the Class 6 nursery at Southwell on Tuesday of this week. There were twelve entries. But six of them I had pencilled in above what would normally be the cut-off point for the race. They would not have been allowed to enter. But the current system gives us the chance to be flexible and make the best race from those that are entered. Which gives extra opportunities to run, bigger fields and more competitive races.

    And imagine that I have published a 74 rating for your horse. You spot a perfect 0-75 handicap for him and plan his training accordingly. The owner arranges the day off and invites all his friends. Then, just before entries, I publish a new rating of 76. This happens a lot with the two-year-olds because the ratings move so quickly as more evidence becomes available. Disaster if we are publishing marks as you cannot now enter. Not a problem under the current system as your plans will not need to change.

    The more evidence we have, the more solid the ratings. And the best evidence often comes from the early nurseries.

    Trainers, however, are not kept in the dark. They are welcome to call me to discuss their horse. I will tell them where I have it pencilled in, how solid that rating looks and therefore how likely it is to change. I have a good relationship with many trainers who do check in with me frequently. Often the calls are not about handicaps. Rather they discuss their plans for other races to see how realistic they are and whether they have better alternatives.

    That first handicap went well. We had a three way finish and a 20/1 winner. We plan to publish the two-year-old ratings either next Tuesday or the one after depending on how quickly these early figures gel.

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    High temperatures and higher quality.

    In a week which saw a heatwave sweep across Britain, there was also some pretty hot action on the racecourse. Stewart Copeland gives his views on the July Cup, whilst Dominic Gardiner-Hill focuses on the top action over a mile, notably the Falmouth Stakes. Almost 40,000 turned up at York for the John Smith's Cup, which fell under the jurisdiction of Martin Greenwood.

    LETHAL WEAPON

    The words "seconds out, round three" sprang to mind as I watched Lethal Force and Society Rock parade in the paddock on a sweltering day at Newmarket's July course, writes Stewart Copeland.

    Much had been said after the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot, with some suggesting Lethal Force owed his win to a good ride, rather than his ability being the decisive factor on the day. As I wrote in my blog on the race I disagreed with that view, and I'll return to that later.

    This year's 6f Group 1 Darley July Cup was far from a two-horse race though. Half of the declared 12-strong field had already triumphed at this level, though it was unfortunate for connections of one of them, the Bahrain-trained Krypton Factor, that he had to be withdrawn after bursting through the front of his stall.

    The 11 who eventually took part meant this was the smallest field in the race since Agnes World beat nine rivals in 2000. The market was headed by the South African challenger Shea Shea, who was hoping to go one better than when runner-up to Sole Power in the King's Stand at Royal Ascot.

    Both though had a question mark against them for the same reason, as their best form had been achieved at the minimum trip.

    There were no such doubts about Lethal Force and Society Rock, and it was fascinating to see which pair would usurp the other. Chris Nash, who oversees the top 5f horses, and myself were both of the view that the Diamond Jubilee represented stronger form than the King's Stand, so we were hoping that would be borne out by the latter duo.

    As it turned out, what was to follow not only produced a really pleasing result from a handicapping viewpoint, but hopefully put to bed those who questioned Lethal Force's supe riority at Royal Ascot, which I alluded to at the start of this piece.

    It's surprising when sectional times are available, which clearly gave an invaluable insight in to how the Diamond Jubilee was run, that there was a body of opinion that Society Rock was unlucky at Royal Ascot. Quite what that opinion was based on I don't know, but it certainly wasn't the clock.

    Lethal Force's dominant front-running display was tremendous to watch. He displayed a high cruising speed before stamping his authority on the race from two furlongs out and, despite a slight stumble shortly after, always looked in control.

    His old foe, Society Rock, chased in vain to finish a length and a half back in second, with Slade Power in third faring best of the Irish challengers, a further three-quarters of a length behind. The favourite, Shea Shea, finished fourth, a neck further back.

    From a ratings perspective, Lethal Force came into the race joint top rated with Shea Shea at 120, and it was a case of whether I felt he had improved upon that to win. I took the view he has, but only marginally and have revised him to 121, a view also shared across the board by my international colleagues who make up the World Thoroughbred Rankings committee.

    That meant Society Rock ran to his rating of 117, and Slade Power posted a career best of 115, having been 109 pre-race. Interestingly, this meant that Shea Shea reproduced the 114 my colleague had him running to in the King's Stand, a creditable performance but still below the level he achieved over 5f at Meydan earlier in the year, which his rating is based on.

    Apart from that, the form is also bolstered by the time, which was a new course record. Course records are not always a guarantee of an exceptional time, but on this occasion it is.

    Comparisons with the other races on the card, including the fiercely competitive Bunbury Cup, show the time to be on a par with Lethal Force's rating, leaving little doubt that he is fully deserving of his position at the top of the European sprint ladder.

    Where does this place Lethal Force historically? His rating is now on a par with Starspangledbanner who completed the same double in 2010. Interestingly, in winning the Golden Jubilee, as it was called then, Starspangledbanner beat Society Rock by a similar margin, so the pair have something in common.

    It also speaks volumes for Society Rock, who's been toughing it out at the top of the sprinting tree for four seasons, and has maintained his form and enthusiasm remarkably well. We then have to go back to Oasis Dream's 125 in 2003 to find a better performance, which puts in to context what an excellent effort it was from Lethal Force.

    KATE TOO ELUSIVE FOR LANTERN

    The first Group 1 clash of the generations over a mile went the way of the older horses as John Gosden's Elusive Kate got the better of Sky Lantern in the Etihad Airways Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

    It is always an interesting test of the three-year-old ratings levels when they start meeting the older horses and on this occasion the 1,000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes heroine lined up at Newmarket with a pre-race rating of 119, while Elusive Kate went to post rated 115.

    In a tactical affair, however, it was the older filly who prevailed by a neck. Having set a sedate pace, she turned things into something of a two-furlong sprint and then hung left across the track, taking the Hannon filly with her in the process.

    While I could have a prolonged argument with myself, let alone anyone else, on the rights or wrongs of the Stewards' decision in the subsequent enquiry I have to answer a number of questions from a handicapping perspective in light of what happened:-

    1) Did the interference caused by Elusive Kate cost Sky Lantern the race? The nature of the incident means that it is impossible to be categorical on that one.

    2) Was Elusive Kate underrated at 115 going into the race? She ended last year with a World Thoroughbred Rankings rating of 116, gained not only against her own sex and age group but also against the colts and the older horses, and was dropped 1lb for a slightly below-par show in the Queen Anne on her reappearance.

    I doubt there is a lot of further improvement to come from her but in retrospect a rating of 117 could have been justified for her victory in the Rothschild at Deauville last July and her third behind Excelebration and Cityscape in the Jacques Le Marois at the same track the following month. As such, I have raised her to 117 after her success last week.

    3) Was Sky Lantern overrated at 119? The numbers from the Coronation stack up quite neatly and at this stage I am unwilling to change the level until further, more reliable, information comes to light. Whereas everything fell into place for her at Royal Ascot, where she was able to be dropped in from a wide draw and followed a strong pace, not much went right for her at Newmarket.

    4) Did the sedate early pace in the Falmouth have a bearing on the result? If there is a key as to why Sky Lantern was beaten I believe this is it, rather than the interference she suffered.

    William Buick got the fractions absolutely spot on from the front and the sedate early pace is reflected in a time that was 1.9 seconds (or 11 and a half lengths) slower than the 85-rated Basseterre's performance in winning the mile handicap three hours later on the card - a direct time comparison suggests Elusive Kate ran to around 60!

    In turning the race into a two-furlong sprint and getting first run, Buick was asking Sky Lantern to quicken to get to his mount and then quicken again to get past her - not easy against a genuine Group 1 filly!

    The upshot is that Sky Lantern will retain her 119 rating despite the fact that her conqueror only goes to 117 - let us hope they meet again at some point to settle all the arguments once and for all.

    Ascot's Group 2 Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile also attracted some top-quality milers and having finished either second or third on his previous six starts, Roger Varian's Aljamaaheer got some reward for his consistency with a length success over Mull of Killough, with Guest of Honour a further half-length back in third.

    Going into the race with a BHA rating of 116 after his second place in the Queen Anne at the Royal meeting, I'm not convinced he needed to run right up to that to prevail on Saturday and have him performing a pound off that level at 115.

    Similarly I don't believe the runner-up Mull of Killough performed to his pre-race mark of 116 either. I have him running 3lb below it at 113, probably due to being drawn widest of all in stall 13 and spending the entire race parked on the outside of the field.

    Third-placed Guest of Honour appears to have produced a lifetime best and will be raised 2lb to 112, whilst Trade Storm, who was fourth and carried 3lb more than the first three, is also raised 2lb, to a new mark of 115.

    THE FIRST (AND SECOND) COURSE IS HAGGAS

    It was the 54th edition of The John Smith's Cup at York on Saturday, writes Martin Greenwood.

    Though a bigger fan of National Hunt than Flat racing, I have plenty of happy memories of York races from my youth, and I particularly enjoyed Magnet Cup Day - as it was known then - in 1983 when I attended and backed Bedtime to win the feature. I had only just started the first of my eighteen years at Timeform at that time, and who would have thought that thirty years later I would be the BHA Handicapper in charge of reassessing the most recent result?

    This year's race was a typically competitive renewal, 19 runners lining up, and they went 6-1 the field, a result for my esteemed colleagues on the Flat.

    One of the joint favourites looked one of the most interesting runners pre-race. Stencive, an excellent second over 1m4f at Royal Ascot last time and also runner-up in both of his handicap runs in 2012, was able to run off 98, the same as at Royal Ascot, due to the fact that the York race was an early closing feature.

    Due to race off 102 in future, his chance was there for all to see. Unfortunately for his connections, Stencive had again to settle for the runner-up berth and was arguably most unlucky not to break his duck in handicaps.

    Anchored in the rear from his wide berth behind a relatively steady early pace, Stencive had only a couple behind him turning in. He could be seen making headway on the outside as the field quickened up approaching three furlongs out, and he looked the most likely winner from then on - so well did he look to be travelling.

    However, while stable-companion Danchai made a dash for glory having raced more prominently under Atzeni, Lee on Stencive seemed to bide his time a stride or two too long on a proven stayer, and despite a sustained run he was unable to quite get up, drifting left close home.

    In my opinion, Stencive was the best horse in the race, even at the weights, and should the pair meet again I am pretty sure the roles would be reversed. Both the Haggas horses will be asked to race off 7lb higher next time, Danchai now 99 and Stencive, after an extra 3lb, on 105, with the latter probably good enough for Listed/Group 3 company.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Hannon and Hughes enjoy ups on the Downs
    The highlight of a busy week of quality races at 1m was of course Toronado's tremendous defeat of old rival Dawn Approach in the Qipco Sussex Stakes at Goodwood last Wednesday, taking the score between the pair to 2-1 in the Irish colt's favour and leaving racing professionals and fans alike awaiting "Round 4" with baited breath, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

    Rated the best two three-year-olds in the world with pre-race ratings of 124 (Dawn Approach) and 123 (Toronado) following their tremendous scrap in the St James's Palace at Royal Ascot, the pair confirmed those positions but it is now Richard Hannon's colt who sits on top of the pile with a new mark of 126, while Dawn Approach is at his girth with a new mark of 125.

    I have taken the view that third-placed Declaration Of War has reproduced his Eclipse running of 120 and used him as the guide to the level of the Sussex - it is interesting to see that some of my international colleagues have taken the view that Aidan O'Brien's colt has only run up to the 118 it was generally acknowledged that he had produced when winning the Queen Anne and, accordingly, have lower figures on the two three-year-olds. I find it difficult to support that view as I felt that Declaration Of War won at Royal Ascot despite not getting the clearest of runs and had the scope to improve on the figure as the season progressed - as he appeared to in the Eclipse, and the fact that he beat Trade Storm (pre-race 115, ran to 110) and Gregorian (115 and 107) a lot further than he did in the Queen Anne suggests to me that there is little reason to suggest that he hasn't run to 120 at Goodwood.

    Would I expect Toronado to confirm the form in the event of a fourth meeting between the pair? There is little doubt that he benefitted from a Richard Hughes master class on the Downs, mugging his old adversary wide and on the line - there is so little between the pair at present that I for one could not predict with any confidence the result of any future meetings!

    Whilst not attracting the headlines of his (currently) more illustrious stablemate, Montiridge provided Hannon and Hughes with further Group success two days later when landing the Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes. This colt is progressing nicely through the ranks and in beating Godolphin's Tawhid (111) by an easy length and a quarter he registered a career best of 115 with the promise of more to come - the Celebration Mile back at Goodwood on August 24 looks an obvious target for this son of Ramonti.

    The Hannon team's domination of the top 1m races at the meeting was topped off by Wentworth's success in the Betfred Mile Handicap on Friday. He has always threatened to win a "big one" but little went right for him in his previous two starts at Royal Ascot and Sandown. That certainly wasn't the case here and he will be raised 7lb to a new mark of 106 for his three-quarters-of-a-length success; runner up Cape Peron also looks to be at least Listed class and he goes up 5lb, also to 106, while third-placed Sandagiyr (who didn't enjoy the clearest of passages) returned to somewhere near his best with a 107 performance off 102. The form is given a solid look by fourth placed Galician, who appears to have run to the same mark of 101 (off 98) as he did when landing the 29-runner Betfair International Handicap at Ascot just six days earlier.

    Official Handicappers aren't supposed to have a heart but for me one of the most pleasing performances of the week was Premio Loco's success in the EBF WT's Snooker and Sporting Club Conditions Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday. Now nine years old and with a meritorious second in the Hunt Cup to his name a couple of outings ago he set out to make all, was headed by clear top-rated Sovereign Debt (12lb "in hand") a furlong out but stuck his head down and battled back to nail his rival inside the final half furlong. I have him reproducing his current figure of 111 and there can be no doubt that Sovereign Debt was nowhere near the form of his second place in the Group 1 Lockinge at Newbury back in May. If it wasn't such an inappropriate phrase to use for such a genuine old campaigner I would say it "showed there was plenty of life in the old dog yet....."!!

    Back of the net!

    Ex-footballer Michael Owen celebrated at Goodwood as though he had just scored the winner in the Cup Final, writes Martin Greenwood.

    Brown Panther, the star thus far of Owen's breeding/owning aspirations, scored his seventh and most important victory in Thursday's Goodwood Cup sponsored by Artemis.

    Although already proven up to and including 1m6f his only previous attempt at 2m proved nothing as he was most disappointing at Longchamp last autumn. At the second time of asking however Brown Panther more than showed the trip was within his compass and ran out an emphatic winner, scoring by three and a half lengths from Ahzeemah, leading around the two furlong marker having always been prominent.

    Beforehand there didn't seem a great deal between the best horses in the field, with the quirky Mount Athos having seemingly the best chance on form. However Mount Athos - along with several other fancied rivals - could never land a blow. With a decent pace from the off then quickening as they straightened up, it seemed to benefit horses near or just off the gallop, while those held up were seen to be at a disadvantage.

    My five-year standard median suggested a figure of 113 for the winner, which is what Brown Panther was rated pre-race. With the likes of No Heretic and, to a lesser extent, Number Theory seemingly running very well, circumstances notwithstanding, I have left Brown Panther on the same mark. He is obviously a smart stayer, with a likeable attitude to boot, though it will be interesting to see what happens should he meet some of these rivals again with a more conventional test.

    Wishing for a star

    Glorious Goodwood has three Group races for two-year-olds, writes Matthew Tester. All were decent renewals but the winners will have to progress significantly if they are going to have a chance in the championship races towards the end of the season.

    I have records of the previous 22 renewals of each race so that I can put these winners into perspective. The 5f Bet365 Molecomb was won by Brown Sugar who I have pencilled in at 109 compared to the race median of 107. So far so good, but the better winners of the Molecomb get rated closer to 115.

    The 6f Audi Richmond was won by Saayerr who is improving fast. My current figure for him is 108. The race median is 112 and as recently as two years ago Harbour Watch was rated 117 for his win, so Saayerr needs to keep improving. And the 7f Veuve Clicquot Vintage was won by Toormore whose 109 is short of the race median of 115 achieved by stablemate Olympic Glory last year.

    Toormore particularly looks like he still has plenty of improvement in him and he is the winner of both of his starts. In fact, the Vintage makes the most appeal to me. The second, Outstrip, has come on a ton since his winning debut and may get better still. The third, Parbold, could not get himself balanced on the track until he hit the rising ground but he finished really well and will do better on a flat track. But bear in mind that Parbold was beaten by a length and three quarters here having been six lengths behind War Command at Ascot last time.

    War Command is still top of the tree as far as the boys are concerned. I have him at 119 for winning the Coventry and I am hoping that he will be as impressive again when we see him next. For the fillies the leader is Kiyoshi who earned 112 for her impressive Albany win. I am expecting to see her next in the Moyglare on September 1.
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    The Fugue hits the high notes on the Knavesmire
    For most of 2012 I believed The Fugue to be capable of achieving a higher rating than the 116 she recorded on three occasions in the second half of that season, writes Phil Smith.

    In last week's Darley Yorkshire Oaks everything fell right for her to really show what she can do. As a result she posted a 120 performance figure, a relatively rare event for a British-trained filly over the last five seasons. Snow Fairy achieved it three times with a 124 in 2012, 122 in 2011 and 120 in 2010. Midday also recorded three 120s with a 120 in 2011, 121 in 2010 and 120 in 2009, while Dar Re Mi posted a 120 in 2009.

    I believe that The Fugue was unlucky not to get to 120 last year. In the 2012 Nassau Stakes and Yorkshire Oaks there was no pace in the race and as a result moderate horses got too close to the principals and it was impossible to rate her higher than 116, but it was clear that the potential was there. It was the lack of pace at York that actually cost her the Yorkshire Oaks last year in my view.

    However it was at Santa Anita where she was exceptionally unlucky that the potential 120 was missed. Have a look on YouTube and see how life was impossible for her jockey in the straight in that race. The winner, Zagora, was given 118 at the end of the season by the International Handicappers. I know that The Fugue could have won that race by over a length if she had got a run and then she'd have been allocated a 120 rating.

    Last week she covered the last six furlongs of her race in 69.18 seconds, which was faster than any of the boys in either the Great Voltigeur Stakes or the Juddmonte International. The initial pace of the Yorkshire Oaks was faster than the Great Voltigeur also as Scintillula covered the first six furlongs in 77.71 seconds compared with Nichols Canyon recording 79.29 seconds.

    So how did I get to 120 for her performance? I have Secret Gesture running to 108 in both the Investec Oaks and the Preis der Diana (the German version). As The Fugue beat her by seven and a quarter lengths her superiority equated to 11lb at the 1m4f trip making 119. I added on a pound for ease of victory as I don't think anybody could doubt that she could have won by another three quarters of a length if her jockey had asked her. This brings Venus de Milo out on 113 which she also achieved in the Darley Irish Oaks.

    I have Telescope performing to 113 in the Great Voltigeur and on a time, weight and weight for age comparison with his performance The Fugue comes out on 120. Declaration of War recorded a 123 in the Juddmonte International and I believe The Fugue would have gone very close in that race with the 3lb sex allowance. The Juddmonte, like the Yorkshire Oaks, was a well-run race. That is what she clearly needs - a truly-run race on fast ground.

    It will be fascinating to see which Breeders' Cup race connections go for, the Fillies and Mares' Turf at an extended-1m2f or the Turf at 1m4f as she is equally adept at both distances. The former will undoubtedly be the easier contest in theory but at Santa Anita over that trip there is always the potential for interference.

    I wonder if they will opt to take on the boys over the longer distance for the greater prestige and prize money. She would almost certainly have to perform a little higher than 120 to win that contest but can she? I believe she can.

    HIGH OF THE TIGER
    A change in the weather after declarations meant an unusually small field in the Betfred Ebor Handicap this year, fourteen eventually going to post for the richest Flat handicap in the northern hemisphere, writes Stephen Hindle.

    It was close at the head of the betting with three horses going off within half a point of one another. When the gates opened, Irish-raider Ted Veale was the shortest price of all, Tony Martin's charge going off a 9/2 chance having confirmed his place in the Ebor line-up by picking up a penalty with a win at Bellewstown three days earlier. The form of the stable was in little doubt too, with Martin having already had a winner earlier on the card with Dark Crusader in the Melrose.

    Deposed from outright favouritism having been a long-time ante-post jolly was the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Opinion, successful in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot and then an unlucky-in-running fifth in Haydock's Old Newton Cup.

    Opinion was having his first run at 1m6f but there were no such questions as to the trip for the other 5/1 shot Tiger Cliff, who had run really well to finish second in the Ascot Stakes over 2m4f.

    It was the least exposed of the trio and one of the least exposed in the entire field, Tiger Cliff, who went on to victory, displaying the stamina he'd shown at Royal Ascot by getting up close home to win going away by half a length from Genzy, who was 8lb well-in having finished a close fourth in the Geoffrey Freer since the Ebor weights were published.

    The tremendously consistent top weight Number Theory filled third spot another length away, with Ted Veale having to settle for a creditable fourth a further length back. Opinion blotted his copybook by planting himself at the start and, while he was able to recover the lost ground due to the uneven gallop, he eventually finished only tenth.

    With Tiger Cliff still unexposed and clearly improving, and with Genzy having failed to match the form he had appeared to show at Newbury, I looked hardest at Number Theory when it came to putting a figure on the race.

    This was a fine effort by Number Theory off a mark of 107. He has run several excellent races this season, both in handicaps and pattern company. His best placing was when second in the Henry II at Sandown behind the French filly Gloomy Sunday, who I had running to 109 in that race. Number Theory was giving 5lb to Gloomy Sunday on that occasion, but having been beaten four lengths by her I wasn't sure I wanted Number Theory on a higher rating. Furthermore, he was third of six off a mark of 108 on his previous start in a handicap.

    If I went 109, a rise of 2lb, for Number Theory, it would fit with Ted Veale, who was raised to 98 by my Irish counterparts following his win at Bellewstown and ran off 97 in the Ebor. That equated to 104 for Tiger Cliff as I had decided to call the half-length margin to the second 2lb due to the fact Tiger Cliff won going away. I dropped Genzy to 104. He ran off 98 so would therefore meet Tiger Cliff on the same terms, but I'm not ready to simply ignore the form of his fourth in the Geoffrey Freer as he had several good horses behind him that day.

    The day before the Ebor, Ahzeemah turned over Gold Cup runner-up Simenon in the Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Lonsdale Cup, a Group 2 over 2m.

    Ahzeemah is tremendously consistent and has not finished outside the first two on his last ten starts now. Indeed, he has never finished outside the first four in his career, so one could argue he got his just reward here.

    There's a case for going higher than 113, but that would mean having Ahzeemah higher than Brown Panther, who beat him in the Goodwood Cup. A figure of 113 also ties in with an average winner of the Lonsdale Cup, as does 112 for the runner-up, which is what I have Simenon, half a length behind Ahzeemah, running to at York.

    Again, a case can be made for rating this race higher on the beaten horses but Times Up in third has been struggling for form this season and overall I felt happier with 113 for Ahzeemah, which also keeps him below the Gold Cup winner, Estimate, who is on 114.

    Whilst talking about the cream of the current staying crop, it would be wrong not to mention the listed March Stakes at Goodwood won by Harris Tweed, who had taken a handicap at the same track in good style by six lengths on his previous outing and been raised to 115 by Martin Greenwood, who was deputising for me while I was on holiday.

    This time he had only a head to spare, and Mount Athos actually comes out the better horse as he was giving Harris Tweed 5lb. It was nice to see a return to form from Mount Athos, who could well be going for the Melbourne Cup again, a race in which he finished fifth last year.

    From a ratings perspective, this is another contest where there is a case for going higher but I have exercised a degree of caution. Mount Athos started the season on 117 but had dropped to 115 before the March Stakes and despite this good effort I'm reluctant to go higher than that. This was only a listed race, after all and Mount Athos is already rated higher than many stayers who have been running well in pattern company recently, several of whom finished ahead of him in the Goodwood Cup. It means Harris Tweed technically performed to a figure slightly lower than on his previous start, 111 on this occasion.

    JWALA STUNS THE SPEEDSTERS
    For the third time in four years the 5f Group 1 Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes threw up a long priced winner - after Sole Power at 100/1 in 2010 and Margot Did at 20/1 in 2011, writes Chris Nash.

    Jwala took the 2013 race at odds of 40/1 and in doing so produced a massive career-best figure on her fifteenth start. Although she arrived with a rating of only 103 the form of the placed horses is hard to knock with Shea Shea (favourite and top-rated pre-race on his South African figure of 120) finishing second and Sole Power (second favourite and second top-rated pre-race on his Irish mark of 117) third. The fourth home Hamish McGonagall had been placed in the last two renewals too.

    Sole Power is a rock solid performer in these races frequently churning out figures around 115 and I settled on him repeating that level of performance again. That had Hamish McGonagall running to 113 which fits in very well with his figures of 114 and 112 from the last two years. Shea Shea also returns a 115 figure which is below the form he'd shown in Dubai earlier this year but on a par with his two previous runs in Britain in the King's Stand and July Cup.

    As a filly Jwala received a 3lb weight allowance from the placed horses and the half length she beat them equates to 2lb. This has her running to a figure of 114 and that will become her revised rating - 11lb higher than her previous best. The decisions on any revisions to the ratings of the second and third will ultimately lie with the handicappers of South Africa (Shea Shea) and Ireland (Sole Power).

    This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Light shines in St Leger but form hardly sparkles.

    TWELVE months on from the disappointment of Camelot's foiled bid for a Triple Crown, Coolmore went one better with victory for Leading Light in the 2013 Ladbrokes St Leger, writes Stephen Hindle.

    The reaction of jockey Joseph O'Brien after this year's race, when the question was put to him of whether it makes up for what happened with Camelot, said much about the level of anguish connections must have felt on that occasion when he simply responded "a little bit".

    Nothing can be done to rewrite the record books, but at least those involved in the two horses can enjoy looking at the line across from 2013, when they will see Leading Light written under the column titled "Winner".

    As with Camelot, Leading Light was sent off favourite, though with odds of 7-2 the expectations weren't quite so high as with 2-5 priced Camelot one year ago. That said, there was obviously a lot of confidence behind Leading Light and it proved justified as he won on merit despite the runner-up, Talent, being slightly interfered with by third-home Galileo Rock under two furlongs out.

    Leading Light has now registered five victories in a row since finishing fourth on his debut and is clearly a high-class colt. From a ratings point of view, however, he would not appear to be a vintage St Leger winner.

    Much like when he won the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot, it is not easy to justify a particularly high view of the race due to the form of those in behind. I've gone for 117, which is a minimum considering the third and fourth (Libertarian) held those ratings beforehand, but my view was tempered by the fact those two had failed to run to their marks on their most recent outings, as had Talent.

    Those further down the field rather hold down the form too. I have fifth-placed Foundry running to 112, which would tie in with his previous run, when second to the 113-rated Telescope in the Great Voltigeur. He has essentially repeated that effort as Secret Number was half a length behind him in sixth, having finished the same distance behind him at York.

    Ralston Road, seventh here but beaten by only about six lengths, went in rated 98 in Ireland and appears to have run 10lb better than that, while just behind him, Havana Beat and Great Hall also appear to have improved slightly on what they had done pre-race.

    Of course, there is a chance that those outside the top half-dozen are flattered and this view could be a little low. That said, the pace, while far from strong, didn't appear particularly steady either, and the time suggests they weren't hanging around too much.

    If I do go back and change the level I have taken, when hindsight comes into play, it's more likely I will be raising it rather than lowering it. For now though, this is the lowest rated winner of the Leger since Mastery in 2009. Ironically, Mastery went on to do better than the next three Leger winners put together. In 2010, Mastery won the Hong Kong Vase having earlier taken a Listed race and finished his career rated 120.

    Arctic Cosmos could manage only one more win after the 2010 Leger and that was at a much lower level. Masked Marvel has met with defeat on several occasions since his win in 2011, while 2012 winner Encke has not run again since.


    Poetry in Motion

    Since the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot was upgraded to Group 1 status in 2002, no horse has completed the treble of the three top 6f sprints in Britain, with Newmarket's July Cup and the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock completing the trio, writes Stewart Copeland.

    I was hoping, therefore, to see a little bit of history made at the Merseyside track, with this year's leading British sprinter Lethal Force being the first horse to have a shot at doing it.

    Sadly it wasn't to be - the writing was on the wall from an early stage and by halfway it was clear the elusive treble was beyond him. Connections reported the going was too soft for their charge, which was a question mark about his chance once rain arrived at the track the day before.

    A shame all round but it shouldn't be quickly forgotten how tremendous his performances were during the summer and let's hope he gets another chance to showcase his talent before he retires to stud at the end of the year.

    Despite the above, that shouldn't detract from what was an impressive performance from Gordon Lord Byron, who's been a regular contender in many of the top sprints this year, though only seeing the rear view of Lethal Force on the previous three occasions they'd met.

    Gordon Lord Byron's three-length victory was the longest winning distance in the race since Nuclear Debate won by the same margin in 2001, and it could have been arguably more if he hadn't coasted home for the last few strides.

    He was one who was always going to benefit from the aforementioned precipitation as he relishes a bit of give in the ground, demonstrated by his previous win in Group 1 company in the 7f Prix de la Foret on heavy going at Longchamp last autumn. He was credited with a rating of 118 for that performance.

    As far as his current rating is concerned, being Irish-trained he wouldn't have a published mark in Britain so I consulted the senior Irish handicapper to agree on a figure with him to be published in Ireland. Over the past decade the average median winning rating for the race has been around 117-118 and a calculation using our historical standards suggests a figure as high as 121.

    However the pre-race standards based on the current form of those he beat on Saturday suggest a slightly lesser mark, in the region of 119. Even though there's an argument the race could be higher solely on a line through 115-rated runner-up Slade Power, his fellow Irish challenger, the recent ratings achieved by those who followed them home are somewhat below what we would hope to see going in to a Group 1 race, hence the lower pre-race standard.

    We felt on balance the latter figure was a better guide for now so we've credited Gordon Lord Byron with a revised rating of 119, a marginal career best nevertheless and on a par with the best performances we've seen in the race this millennium. He shares that accolade with Dream Ahead's success in 2011, and the aforementioned Nuclear Debate, which emphasises what an excellent effort it was from Gordon Lord Byron on Saturday.


    The two-year-old season is bubbling up nicely to its climax and with our five championship races kicking off next week with the Fillies' Mile and the Cheveley Park Stakes, it is time to see how the contenders are shaping up, writes Matthew Tester.

    The figures mentioned below are my current assessments and my international colleagues may not have the same ratings at this stage. Let us start with the colts.

    To my regret, two of the current top three colts might not come to the dance. There has already been the suggestion that Toormore (121 after his National Stakes win on Sunday) and No Nay Never (118 for his Prix Morny) will not be seen again this year. Each has won three from three. Each would have had a great chance in the Dewhurst and the Middle Park Stakes respectively. Each has the potential for greatness but we may have to wait for next year to find out if this can be realised.

    War Command (118) has already won the Coventry and the Futurity and he is clearly classy. Others like Outstrip (114 for his win last week in Doncaster's Champagne Stakes) and Berkshire (113 for winning the Chesham at Royal Ascot but not seen since) will be in the mix. Yet it is two other unbeaten colts that have got me really excited.

    Australia, a Galileo son of that great mare Ouija Board, won a Group 3 in Ireland by six lengths on only his second start. It is impossible to be sure of the value of the win because there was so little form on which to base it. However, I reckon that he is at least 114 at this stage.

    Were he Pegasus reincarnated then you could not have asked him to win any easier. We are expecting to see him here either in the Dewhurst or the Racing Post Trophy and either would be exciting.

    Kingman, whose dam won the French Guineas, is the other colt to follow. The mathematics of his two lengths win in the Solario Stakes only get you to 111. The style, however, was unmistakeably impressive. He travelled comfortably behind the leaders and went by them smoothly. He did not pull away after that mostly, I suspect, because it would have been an unnecessary effort.

    With no disrespect to his opponents that day, it will take much better horses to make him work hard. The Dewhurst looks the natural target and I am really looking forward to seeing how he copes.

    With the fillies, the picture is much clearer. The top three fillies have already met in the Moyglare Stakes.

    Rizeena's narrow win over the wayward Kiyoshi and Tapestry is easily the best form that we have witnessed. My ratings for those three are 115 for the winner and 114 for the other two. Rizeena gets better and better, Kiyoshi must surely improve again if she learns to run in a straight line at top speed and Tapestry was badly hampered but beaten less than a length.

    The French filly Vorda (112 on my figures) is the only other one getting near to that. I expect to see all four of them running again before the year is out so there is plenty to play for.

    This blog appears courtesy of britishhorseracing.com
    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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    Someone should tell Matthew Tester that Australia isn't unbeaten.

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    Sky Lantern Elusive
    for Kate this time

    The much awaited rematch between Elusive Kate and Sky Lantern turned into more of a mismatch in the Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill, with Richard Hannon's grey filly landing a comfortable success with her old rival back in fourth running way below her best.

    Going into the race top rated with a BHA figure of 119 earned in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, Sky Lantern swooped late for a one-length success and using third-placed Duntle (111) as a guide to the level, I have her running to 117+ on the day and obviously she stays on 119, while progressive runner-up Integral took another step forward with a career-best of 115.

    I have Elusive Kate (who, as usual, hung at the business end on ground that was plenty fast enough for her) performing to a mark of 106 in fourth but she also retains her pre-race mark of 117 as there is little wrong with her Group 1 successes in the Falmouth and when beating the aforementioned Duntle a comfortable two and a half lengths in the Prix Rothschild at Deauville in July.

    The other disappointment of the race was Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Just The Judge on whom forcing tactics were used for the first time and plainly were not a success. She faded away tamely inside the final couple of furlongs and I have her running to a moderate 87 in finishing sixth of the seven runners - she however, will also retain her pre-race rating of 110 as again there is little wrong with her early- to mid-season efforts.

    The best miling performance of the week however, came when Mike de Kock's Soft Falling Rain took the Group 2 Nayef Joel Stakes in convincing style. Runner-up Montiridge appears to have flattened off now in terms of improvement but he bounced back from his below-par display at Haydock to run to his pre-race rating of 115 in my book, suggesting that Soft Falling Rain put up a career-best 122.

    It may well be that there is a bit more to come from this South African bred and he is certainly worthy of a place in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes line-up on Champions Day at Ascot. With question marks over a number of the top-rated contenders for the race (Toronado 126, Dawn Approach 125 and Olympic Glory 124) he at least heads for the race in form and on the up and the way he stayed on up the hill at Newmarket suggests that Ascot's straight mile will hold few fears for him.

    The Juvenile Fillies Conundrum

    The Fillies' Mile and the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket, the two Group 1 contests in Britain for two-year-old fillies, answered some questions but, as always, raised fresh ones, writes Matthew Tester.

    So, with only France's Prix Marcel Boussac likely to upset the current order, there are still differences of opinion as to who is the top filly. I have to meet with my European colleagues at the end of November to hammer out an agreement.

    For me the top filly at the moment is Vorda, winner of the Cheveley Park Stakes. The only time that she has ever been beaten was by the exceptionally smart colt No Nay Never in the Prix Morny. Even in defeat she had behind her Rizeena who went on to beat Kiyoshi and Tapestry in the Moyglare Stud Stakes in Ireland next time. Brilliant though Kiyoshi is, she has not quite reproduced the excitement of her win in Royal Ascot's Albany Stakes. Maybe I got a little carried away with the Moyglare form and I have brought that down a little in my figures.

    Rizeena probably did not run to her best when she was beaten in last week's Fillies' Mile. She started racing in April and, running over a mile for the first time, did not seem to have the acceleration that we associate with her. She was also a little keen in the early stages, something that has not really been a factor before. Last week she failed to hold Chriselliam, trained by Charlie Hills. Although Chriselliam was the pick of the paddock, she was still a surprise package since she had been beaten in a Listed race at Haydock the previous time out.

    There are plenty of other horses from the Fillies' Mile that support my view that Rizeena was not at her absolute best. So where does all that leave us? I have Vorda now on 114, Rizeena on 113 on her best form in Ireland, Kiyoshi on 111 and the same figure for Chriselliam. Miss France also earned a rating of 111 for her win in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes. There may be plenty more to come from her and she does still, I believe, hold an entry in Sunday's Prix Marcel Boussac in France.

    In the colts' races, the key win was by Berkshire in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes. The form of his Royal Ascot win in the Chesham could hardly be looking better. The placed horses have all won big races since and my figure for Berkshire of 113 makes it the best performance to win that race for many years. He is a big horse who hits the ground hard as he gallops. So I had doubts whether the fast ground at Newmarket would be ideal and whether he would cope with the tricky downhill run to the Dip. Racing a little too keenly after his long layoff, he did not in truth handle things that well. He looked beaten until finally stretching on the rising ground to the line and leading close home. But perhaps it is the mark of good athletes that they can still win even when things do not go right. On my figures he won despite only running to a rating of 108; but I still stand by the fact that he is a 113-rated horse when everything works out.

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  19. #239
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    Terrific Treve queen of Europe after Arc romp
    IN RECENT years the female of the species has been more deadly than the male in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. This year Treve has made it three filly winners in a row for the world's richest race on turf, writes Stephen Hindle.

    Following on from Danedream in 2011 and Solemia in 2012, Treve trounced her rivals with an authoritative display, winning by five lengths from Japanese raider Orfevre, who was filling the runner-up spot for the second year in a row.

    The first five home were all trained either in France or Japan, with third-placed Intello and fifth-home Penglai Pavilion, along with the winner representing La Tricolore, while the Japanese Derby winner Kizuna came home in fourth. The first of the British contingent was Al Kazeem, who finished sixth having appeared to stumble about five furlongs out.

    Now unbeaten in five starts, Treve is most certainly a worthy winner and with a pencilled-in figure of 129 I rank her on a par with Danedream. The World Rankings Committee has still to arrive at a final figure and several members have proposed 130, which would make Treve the highest rated Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner since Sea The Stars in 2009.

    Treve's winning margin was a smooth five lengths, which I have called 8lb. Taking away the 3lb fillies' allowance, that makes her 5lb superior to Orfevre, who we in Britain had producing a number of 124 performances going into the race. Not only does that fit but Intello, a neck behind Orfevre, could be 123 on his third in the Marois in August. Two lengths further back, Kizuna on 120 is also a decent fit, as he beat Ruler of The World by a short head in the Niel. We have a figure of 120 for Ruler of The World in the Derby, albeit a Derby which is not really working out, Ruler of The World could finish only seventh on this occasion.

    The disappointment of the race was arguably Flintshire, who turned heads with his victory in the Grand Prix de Paris in July but failed to fire in the Niel and now the Arc. Leading Light, perhaps unsurprisingly on form, failed to make much impact too, though he had a rather torrid time of things in terms of getting a clear run in the straight and this effort is worth forgiving.

    Of course, there are many valuable supporting races on Arc weekend, and one of the few Group 1s for stayers, the Qatar Prix du Cadran, took place approximately two hours after the Arc. Only fifth in the Gold Cup back in June, Altano found this contest much more to his liking, wearing down Marco Botti's Tac De Boistron, who ran a blinder considering he raced keenly for much of the race, to win by two and a half lengths.

    Tac De Boistron was technically the first Bri tish runner home behind the German-trained winner, but it was something of a return to familiar territory for him as he used to be a regular in French staying races, his best previous effort a win in the 2012 Prix Maurice de Nieuil. High Jinx was fancied by many, having finished second in last year's Cadran, but he hasn't really fired this term and looks set to end of the season on 110 after starting out on 113, having finished only fifth.

    The other British raider, Times Up, who beat High Jinx in the Doncaster Cup, was a respectable third but I have him running below his rating of 112. The front pair pulled six lengths clear and this was clearly one of the best staying performances of the season. With a past figure of 115 on Tac De Boistron, I took the view that he had surely returned to at least that level, which gave me a figure of 118 for Altano, having called the two and a half lengths 3lb. On 118, Altano has put in the joint best performance in the staying division this year on my figures, the other being Voleuse De Coeurs in the Irish St Leger.

    Maarek relishes the mud
    The opening race on Arc day was the Group 1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp, and a well-contested lead through the early stages rather set things up for a couple coming from behind, writes Chris Nash.

    The winner was the Irish-trained Maarek who had won a Group 3 at Newbury on his previous start. He is at his best in a well-run race on soft ground and so had everything in his favour on Sunday. He arrived in Paris with an Irish rating of 111 but had reached a mark of 114 when winning the British Champions Sprint at Ascot last year and I have him running to the same figure here - rather like the other French races this is just my opinion and has yet to be verified by the World Rankings Committee.

    A short-neck behind Maarek was the French-trained Catcall, who for me shaped like the best horse for much of the race and could perhaps be considered an unlucky loser. He cruised through the majority of the contest and probably ended up in front that bit too soon as a result - he has a reputation for needing to be produced as late as possible. I have him on 113, which is a career-best, and could easily see him doing better again next year when things drop right.

    The form looks solid judged on the British-trained third, fourth and fifth. Hamza is generally consistent and I have him producing yet another 108-performance in third, whilst Jwala and Reckless Abandon both have Group 1 successes to their name, but neither was seen to best effect. Reckless Abandon's three-year-old season hasn't quite matched up to his first campaign but there remains every chance that he can improve on this as an older horse if kept in training.

    Tropical Paradise
    Understandably the main focus of attention was at Longchamp this weekend, but there was also some high-class sprint action on these shores and the Dean Ivory-trained Tropics arguably posted a performance in advance of what Maarek did in the Abbaye when running away with the 6f Group 3 John Guest Bengough Stakes at Ascot, writes Stewart Copeland.

    Tropics' form has been on a gradual upward curve all season with the exception of a rare poor effort when sent off a well-backed favourite in the Ayr Gold Cup last time. He soon banished the memory of that run with an emphatic success at Ascot, taking his form to a level where Group 1 races are now firmly on the agenda. The Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot next year was mentioned by connections as his long term aim and on this evidence that's a realistic target.

    In analysing the race, both the historical and pre-race standards point to a figure in the 115-117 brackets. I eventually settled on 116, a 9lb rise from his pre-race rating of 107. Taking that view means that the second Music Master has also put up a career best, improving his rating from 103 to 108. The three-year-old colt Music Master had been exclusively campaigned over 7f this season, but often shaped as if he'd improve for a drop in trip. My colleague, who was on duty at Ascot, described him as very much a sprinter in appearance as well. Filling the frame were Hoof It and Heeraat, who both ran creditably and add further substance to the form.

    Having been sold for $280,000 as a foal and then $700,000 as a yearling, Tropics didn't see a racecourse until late in his four-year old season. He's clearly now making up for lost time and it's remarkable given what he's achieved that the Ivory stable paid only 2,500 guineas for him. That's what I call a bargain!

    Seventh Heaven
    The Betfred Challenge Cup at Ascot on Saturday is one of the richest handicaps of the Flat season and it once again attracted a classy field, headed by Ascription, who came into the race rated 109, writes Mark Olley.

    As an early closing race I am used to seeing many runners compete from a rating that has since been revised, but most unusually only one horse, Arnold Lane, was running from anything other than his current rating. He was due to drop by 1lb from the 108 he raced from to 107 and I have him running to that revised figure.

    When I blogged about this race last year, I remember saying that I based the race around Arnold Lane, who finished third then, as he was so consistent. His rating has gone from 99 to 108, mainly due to a Group 3 win in Germany, but I find myself again basing the race around him, Redvers, Shamaal Nibras and Es Que Love who all finished in a heap for fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh.

    The race went to the only three-year-old, Heaven's Guest, who was ridden by late replacement Ryan Moore after his intended mount Wentworth was taken out. They were in a group tracking pacesetter Es Que Love, kicked for home inside the final furlong and then held the fast-finishing Bertiewhittle and Loving Spirit. Heaven's Guest moves up 4lb to a new career-high rating of 104, while Bertiewhittle goes to 102 and Loving Spirit to 100.

    Bertiewhittle has been something of a nearly horse this season having finished second in the Victoria Cup at Ascot in May and also in valuable handicaps at Newcastle and Doncaster. David Barron's day was not made any better by second-favourite Big Johnny D hitting his head on the stalls and not running any sort of race.

    Over at Redcar the Listed Guisborough Stakes was won in taking fashion by Top Notch Tonto. He has been very progressive this season, but there was an element of looking flattered about his Group 3 win at Haydock last time. He proved emphatically here that that was no fluke by conceding 5lb to the 110-rated Caspar Netscher.

    I decided Caspar Netscher was more likely to have run to the 107 I had him running to when fourth in the Group 2 Park Stakes last time than the 110 he achieved when second to Garswood in the Group 2 Lennox at Goodwood. The race standards for the runner-up suggest a figure of 107 which also helped with my decision. All of the above means that Top Notch Tonto has a new rating of 115, which is the highest rating achieved by any horse in this race since it was granted Listed status back in 2003.

    Finally on to the Qatar Prix de la Foret at Longchamp which is the only Group 1 7f race run in Europe. As this race was on Sunday it technically falls into this coming week's racing and any rating changes for the British runners won't come into effect until next Tuesday.

    Gordon Lord Byron set an electric pace and rather teed the race up for the ultra-patiently-ridden Moonlight Cloud. She swept through under Thierry Jarnet to win going away by three lengths in a visually stunning style. I called the three lengths 8lb and have her moving up 1lb to a new mark of 123. This is just my opinion as I am only responsible for the British trained runners, though as such I can say that third-placed Garswood's new rating is likely to be a career high 117 (up 6lb).

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    Dice Scatters her Cesarewitch rivals
    I’ve never played the dice game “Yahtzee”, but I am familiar with it, writes Stephen Hindle.

    Having done some research, the odds of rolling a Yahtzee on your first turn are bigger than 1,000-1, therefore Scatter Dice’s victory in the Betfred Cesarewitch possibly wasn’t that much of a surprise, relatively speaking.

    Regardless of that, anyone who backed Scatter Dice will no doubt be feeling pretty pleased with themselves. Perhaps some of those individuals did so based on what happened last season, when Aaim To Prosper obliged at the same price of 66-1.

    Scatter Dice’s credentials were hardly obvious going in. She was on a losing run of 20 and was due to drop 2lb having finished unplaced in three outings since the weights came out.

    Wearing a first-time visor, her chance looked even smaller when the gates opened as she blew the start. If anything though, it may have been a blessing in disguise as the generous pace helped her outstay her opponents, and in the end she scored by a widening three lengths.

    I generally work with 1lb per length in races over such long distances as this 2m2f race. Having won going away and lost so much ground at the start, I felt it was fair to credit Scatter Dice with a shade extra and therefore called the three lengths 4lb.

    My rating was based largely on the second, Waterclock, who finished second to a horse called Argent Knight two starts earlier. By raising him 3lb to 91 here, he would still meet Argent Knight on better terms. That meant a new rating of 95 for Scatter Dice, who ran off 88. There was scope for going slightly higher but it still means a career-high mark for each of the first three, Lieutenant Miller going to 93 from 91 having finished half a length behind Waterclock in third.

    Only slightly further back were Chiberta King, who was once rated 108 but competed off 102 here, Pallasator and Oriental Fox. The last-named pair were both due to go up by 2lb and I have them running 1lb below that here, which is why there is scope to go slightly higher on the level of the race. I have decided to leave them as they are in any case as I feel they are both fairly treated, even though it would mean them having to meet Chiberta King on slightly worse terms after he has gone up by only 1lb.

    Of the others at single-figure prices, favourite Tiger Cliff, who won the Ebor, finished a respectable eighth here. French raider Smoky Hill looked thrown in based on his fourth in a Group 3 at Longchamp since the Cesarewitch weights came out, but appeared not to stay and came home seventeenth. Domination, the sole Irish representative, won the Cesarewitch trial last year and came here on the back of two wins in handy company over hurdles, but he finished twenty-fifth having been sent off an 8-1 co-second favourite.

    Streaking Hot

    Rain has brought much softer ground, the horses’ coats are changing and not all of the results are making sense. Let me illustrate that with two examples from last weekend, writes Matthew Tester.

    One week ago Ascot hosted the Group 3 BMW Cornwallis Stakes in which Hot Streak won and Kickboxer was a surprise package in third. He had been beaten in a handicap on his previous start off 79. Yet here he was with nine apparently better horses behind him in a Group race. That made it a really difficult race to rate and I assumed that everything behind Kickboxer must have run way below form. All the same, he had to go flying up the ratings for what looked like a career best performance.

    Hot Streak came out again on Saturday and ran a tremendous race to be second in the Group 1 Vision.AE Middle Park Stakes. And Kickboxer? Well he was only tenth in a York handicap on Friday still running off his old 79 mark.

    A more lowly example came from Wolverhampton on Saturday. Nine days earlier Shyron had won a handicap by half a length and a head from Sweet Amalie over the same course and distance. Sweet Amalie was 4lb better off so it should have been very close between them. But no - Shyron was backed down to odds on and won again with Sweet Amalie about six lengths further away than she had been nine days earlier.

    Going back to Hot Streak, the only one to beat him in the Middle Park was his stablemate Astaire, winner of the Gimcrack Stakes at York, who put up a strong front-running display. His rating moves up to 114, which is historically towards the low side of expectations for this race.

    The other Group 1 on the Newmarket Future Champions card was the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes. War Command added to his wins in the Coventry and the Futurity but it was a fairly workmanlike performance on ground that he probably did not relish. His figure was therefore unspectacular for the Dewhurst running to 117. So how come both those championship races were on the low side?

    I think the reason was that some of the very best horses had already been put away for the season. No Nay Never, rated 120 in my book, was finished for the year after the Darley Prix Morny with three wins out of three. The second that day, Rizeena, won a Group 1 next time as did the third, Vorda. I have no doubt that No Nay Never could have won a Middle Park but he was never going to run.

    Similarly, the unbeaten Toormore, the unbeaten Kingman and the impressive Australia would have set War Command a much tougher task had they turned up for the Dewhurst. Aidan O’Brien, trainer of both War Command and Australia, has told everyone that he believes that Australia is much the superior of the two. These two races often used to be where the very best would meet and the champion would be decided. Kingman had met with a setback but it seems to have been the choice of connections not to run Toormore , No Nay Never and Australia again this year.

    This is not to take anything away from admirable horses like Astaire and War Command who can only beat what turns up on the day.

    Of course I wish those championship races to be contested by all the top horses. But I expect that the process of putting some of the candidates away before Future Champions day will continue and this will have a knock-on effect on the end of season ratings. In essence the way to earn an exceptional rating is to beat a field of horses who already have very high figures. Five years ago the European two-year-old Classification included 21 horses with ratings of 115 or above. Last year there were only eight of them.

    There are many reasons why this might have happened but the way in which the horses are being campaigned must be part of it. You will have to wait until the Classifications press conference in January to find out how many there are this year. But do not expect any massive reversal of fortunes. The world of two-year-old racing is definitely changing and we have to reflect that in our figures.

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    Ah! but a man's reach should exceed his grasp......

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