The thoughts of the handicappers.

[granger]

I think this years edition of the gold Cup is a good one

Seconded

[Colin Phillips]

Special One a serious Festival contender
The trend in this week's Blog is very much a look to the future, in fact none of the horses mentioned have ever set foot in handicap company. We lead off with a couple of notable performances in the novice hurdle ranks and then Matthew Tester runs us through the thinking, and the implications, of the two-year-old Classification that was published this week.

RETURN OF THE SPECIAL ONE
The New One returned to the track with a vengeance at Warwick on Saturday and maintained his unbeaten record over hurdles in the process, writes Martin Greenwood.

Very impressive when scoring at Newton Abbot and Cheltenham in the autumn, The New One had become a somewhat forgotten horse as top-class performances were been posted left, right and centre by his assumed Cheltenham rivals. Not anymore however, for The New One blitzed the opposition at Warwick and now heads my staying novice division list.

With main rival Dursey Sound effectively out of the race after a mid-race blunder The New One basically never came of the bridle to beat rivals rated in the low 130s.

It's never easy to be precise in races such as this, and I usually rely on my standards to guide me, initially at least. The last five runnings of this particular race suggest The New One posted a mark of 152, which is his new rating for now, and 2lb higher than Coneygree as things stand. However the 152 doesn't take into account the ease of victory, which could have been in the region of 30 lengths rather than the 16 he actually scored by. Given the usual vagaries associated with wide-margin wins on testing ground, I have decided to rest on 152 for now.

Obviously The New One will face tougher tests, especially at Cheltenham, but there is no doubting his huge potential and it is no surprise to see him head the market for the Neptune.

TENT PROVES IMPOSSIBLE TO PEG BACK
A smart novice hurdler lit up the card at Huntingdon on Friday, writes Chris Nash.

The horse was My Tent Or Yours and the official result of this race will tell you that he beat Population by seven lengths giving him 10lb (a 17lb beating), God's Own by nine and a quarter lengths giving him 4lb (a 14lb beating) and Tiny Tenor by 13 and a quarter lengths giving him 10lb (a 24lb beating).

Population was having his second run over hurdles having disappointed first time but was a very decent bumper horse. God's Own had won his hurdles debut on his previous start running to a figure of 122 (form that was later boosted when the third won a handicap off 117). Tiny Tenor was also having his second run over hurdles and had run a figure on debut of 112. The form amongst the placed horses stacks up quite nicely - if God's Own repeated his 122 performance then Tiny Tenor also repeated his 112 performance. This has Population running a figure of 119 and leaves the winner returning a bare figure of 136.

However that figure does not represent My Tent Or Yours' true achievement. He tanked along throughout, to the point that he looked like he might even be doing too much, pulled his way to the front jumping three out, and was five lengths clear over two out and nearer ten lengths ahead at the last before being eased down.

Assessing the true extent of his superiority over the rest is not easy as he never came off the bridle. I looked at his ten length lead at the last and decided that the margin could well have been doubled if he had been ridden clear after the hurdle so I have assessed him as a twenty length winner - a performance equivalent to a figure of 149, a 9lb improvement on his pre-race mark. The immediate impact of this run was that it qualified him for the (early closing) Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on February 9, and if he takes his chance he'll be amongst the least exposed in the field. In addition his new rating of 149 places him right towards the top of the 2m novice hurdle division.

A NEW DAWN?
This is the week when we unveil the rankings for the top horses in the world, writes Matthew Tester.

The international Handicappers all meet up in December and thrash it through.

For the two-year-olds the list only includes European horses. North America does not have any two-year-old handicaps and the southern hemisphere juveniles are only just coming out to play as December closes. We are working, though, with all those countries to try to ensure consistency in approach.

A year ago our view was that it had been a dull bunch of two-year-olds of which the best were Camelot and Dabirsim at 119. Dabirsim was beaten under a length in the French Guineas and never ran again and Camelot, of course, just missed out on the Triple Crown. This year our champion is Dawn Approach at 124. This is the seventeenth year that I have worked on the two-year-old Classification. The median rating for those champions has been 123; so Dawn Approach is a cut above the norm.

He was the undefeated winner of six races including the National Stakes and the Dewhurst. Kingsbarns comes next at 118 and is the undefeated winner of the Racing Post Trophy. Reckless Abandon (117) won all five including the Prix Morny and the Middle Park, Toronado (114) won all three including the Champagne Stakes and Olympic Glory (117) won four out of five, his only defeat coming in the Coventry behind Dawn Approach. So the year ahead looks far from dull.

On the fillies side the champion is Certify who won all four starts including the Fillies Mile. Her rating of 114 reflects the relatively weak opposition when she won that Group 1 race. Also in the ratings, at 110, is Rosdhu Queen who won all four of her starts including the Cheveley Park. And keep an eye open for Just The Judge who won all three races and earned a 107 rating for her win in the Rockfel.

It will be fascinating to see how Dawn Approach develops this year. Looking at them in the paddock before the Dewhurst, Dawn Approach was simply a bigger and stronger horse than the rest of the field. He almost looked more like a three-year-old. I remember having the same impression about Xaar when I was looking at the runners for the 1997 Dewhurst. Xaar won that day by seven lengths and became our champion at 127 only for his three-year-old season to prove something of a disappointment - although he was beaten only a neck in the Eclipse he ended that season 5lb lower at 122.

The weight for age scale says that the Dewhurst horses still have 23lb of improvement to come as they mature. I suspect that Xaar was ahead of the curve and only found 18lb, hence the fall in the rating. I really like Dawn Approach but we will have to wait to see whether he too was ahead of the curve.

Either way, we are in for an exciting year.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA.

[Colin Phillips]

Paying tribute to the greatest one last time

BY THE BHA HANDICAPPERS 1:40PM 22 JAN 2013

With British racing hit so badly by the weather in the last week, it’s something of a saving grace for our blog that we published the World Thoroughbred Rankings within the period. Phil Smith discusses the methods used in reassessing and adjusting some of the champions of yesteryear in his Head of Handicapping's Blog, whilst below Dominic Gardiner-Hill takes one final opportunity to eulogise on the ground-breaking success story that was Frankel.

Blog address http://www.britishhorseracing.com/go...ndicapping.asp

THE GREATEST OF THEM ALL

And so, probably for the final time, I get the chance to review the performances of the horse now officially acknowledged as the highest rated thoroughbred since the International Classifications/World Thoroughbred Rankings started in 1977, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

From a personal point of view it has been an absolute privilege to present and argue the case for Frankel’s rating on the world stage and play a very small part in the whole extraordinary story – the only upside to his retirement, being that life and the telephone might be a little quieter after the running of all the major mile races for a while!

Having been joint-Champion Two-Year-Old with a mark of 126 and advancing that mark to 136 when topping the Three-Year-Old category in 2011, Sir Henry Cecil’s colt set about achieving the unique distinction of completing the set with Champion Older Horse honours in 2012 with victory in the JLT Lockinge Stakes at Newbury in May. In beating old adversaries Excelebration (second) and Dubawi Gold (third) a length further than he had ever beaten them before I felt a further rise in his rating was fully justified and raised him 2lb to 138 – little did we know at the time that the Older Horse Championship was already in the bag!

And so on to Royal Ascot and the Queen Anne Stakes – and what many people believe to be his finest performance. Visually it was stunning - on a par with his extraordinary performance in the previous year’s Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket – and once again it was poor old Excelebration who was destined to play the role of bridesmaid. On this occasion Excelebration made the mistake of trying to “take on” Frankel from 2f out and paid the price in terms of the mathematics as a measure of his performance – he tied up badly through the final half furlong and only just managed to hang on for second from the 114/115-performer Side Glance (third) and the German Listed winner Indomito (fourth).

Given that Frankel had gone into the race with 13lb in hand of Excelebration, 25lb in hand of Side Glance and 30lb in hand of Indomito it could be argued that Frankel didn’t have to improve to take the race by eleven lengths, but few that had the privilege of watching his complete destruction of the field that afternoon could argue they hadn’t witnessed one of the great performances of all time. I certainly believed it was his best performance to date and raised his mark another couple of pounds to 140.

Group 1 success number eight came with a relaxing “doddle across the Downs” when taking the four-runner Qipco Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood (the only race he won twice throughout his career) at the beginning of August, but it was the perfect preliminary for the much awaited step up to 1m2f in the Juddmonte International at York three weeks later.

Again Frankel (140) went into the race with a huge amount in hand of his main rivals on official figures – on this occasion the Aidan O’Brien-trained St Nicholas Abbey (124) and the Godolphin-owned Farhh (122). The Coolmore juggernaut attempted to throw a major spanner in the “Team Frankel” plans by taking on and getting the better of trusty pacemaker Bullet Train early but it mattered not one jot – the great one swept through with majestic ease and put to bed any stamina doubts with a stunning seven lengths success. With only a nose separating Farhh in second and St Nicholas Abbey in third (both credited with performances of 124) my colleague Phil Smith had few concerns in posting up another 140 performance from Frankel.

It was fitting that his career should come to an end on Champions Day as that is what he was now widely acclaimed as around the world with even the most diehard Black Caviar fans giving best! With the world’s second highest horse, the French mud lover Cirrus des Aigles, in opposition it was in theory the toughest test of Frankel’s career on ground that held some fears for all concerned with the horse. One of the beauties of this horse, however, was that he never, ever let anyone down and the Qipco Champion Stakes 2012 was to prove no exception. Whilst failing to reach the heights of his Royal Ascot or York performances, the son of Galileo signed off in perfect fashion with a one and three-quarter lengths defeat of the French challenger, posting a figure of 135+ in the process.

There are many criteria to judge the so called “greatness” of racehorses and some will crab Frankel’s new found position as the highest rated since 1977 because he never raced beyond 1m2f, or that he never travelled abroad, or that he needed the assistance of a pacemaker (for which the under-rated Ian Mongan never received the credit he should have done in my book) and so on. Ratings are only a numerical representation of performance and I now believe that Frankel quite rightfully sits on top of that particular pile.

Finally, let us consider a few facts from a career that few of us will ever see the like of again:

• His career record stands at fourteen wins from fourteen races – ten of which were at Group 1 level

• After the recalibration of the “early years” he is now the proud owner of the two best performances seen since 1977 with his successes in the Queen Anne and the Juddmonte International

• His aggregate Group 1 winning distance was 48.75 lengths – an average winning distance of 4.875 lengths

• Two 140 performances and six more 130+ performances during his career provided sustained brilliance never before witnessed

• Joint Champion Two-Year-Old of 2010, followed by Champion Three-Year-Old of 2011 and Champion Older Horse of 2012 – a feat never before achieved since the introduction of the IC/WTR in 1977

A truly remarkable racehorse.

MULLINS IT OVER

With a weather-interrupted week in the UK, there was little worth writing about from a domestic point of view, writes Martin Greenwood, so the one interesting performance in my division came at Thurles in Ireland.

Ballycasey, one of numerous performers with huge potential from Willie Mullins’ stable, maintained his unbeaten record in tremendous style. Winner of a bumper at Leopardstown in December 2011, and a maiden hurdle at Clonmel 12 months later, Ballycasey faced a much sterner test in a five-runner novice at Thurles, but you wouldn’t have known such was the ease of his victory.

Basically never off the bridle, Ballycasey strolled clear in effortless style and could probably have gone round again! The time comparison with the later handicap suggests a decent performance on paper and I have pencilled Ballycasey in on a mark of 145 with promise of plenty more to come. Reportedly heading for either of the staying novices at Cheltenham, Ballycasey adds further excitement to an already strong list of contenders for both races.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA.

[Colin Phillips]

Trials and Tribulation

BY THE BHA HANDICAPPERS 12:29PM 29 JAN 2013

If there was one meeting over the course of the last week that ‘had' to beat the weather it was Cheltenham, and Saturday's card provided both a thrilling spectacle, with several tight finishes, and numerous pointers for the Festival itself. Our NH team are out in force this week to give their take on events, led off by Phil Smith's views on another major success for the better-than-ever Cape Tribulation.


VIA THE CAPE

The Argento Cotswold Chase was a tricky race to rate as the ground inconvenienced the majority who took part, writes Phil Smith.

Cape Tribulation came into it in good form having won the Rowland Meyrick Handicap at Wetherby on Boxing Day by a comfortable 11 lengths. I had only put him up 9lb for that win as I had taken the view that it was a weak renewal as the second Mr Moonshine had run poorly in his previous race.

I had believed Cape Tribulation (brilliantly ridden by Dennis O'Regan) to be a better hurdler than chaser up to now but his thrilling victory over the returning Imperial Commander on Saturday had to make him at least a potential placed horse in the Gold Cup. I decided on 165 for his new rating so that he is now the highest rated runner from the Argento.

What to do with Imperial Commander? Remember he was beaten in receipt of 6lb on Saturday so had a performance figure of 158 - very encouraging after nearly two years off. Although Imperial Commander is almost certain to improve for the run I now have him on 162. If they were to meet in a handicap the Commander would be 3lb worse off with Cape Tribulation from Saturday so I have built in a little improvement.

Hunt Ball travelled really well for most of the race but to my eyes clearly failed to stay the trip. He stayed 3m at Aintree last April but around Cheltenham the extra distance on that ground found him out. I left him on 157 and am sure he would be competitive off that mark in a handicap.

Of the rest I left Weird Al on 164 from the Betfair Chase and left the faller Little Josh on 149. If he can reach the places in the Denman Chase at Newbury on Saturday week he'll qualify for the Grand National. Midnight Chase, Hey Big Spender and Wayward Prince have all been dropped 3lb and I pulled Grands Crus back 2lb to 155. Let's hope that he can return to form as he looked really promising a year ago.


SEVENTH HEAVEN

As if the fruits of herculean efforts by Cheltenham's ground-staff to stage Saturday's Trials Day card was not reward enough for action-starved jump fans, the addition of Ascot's postponed Victor Chandler Chase took the already star-studded programme to another level, writes John de Moraville.

Sprinter Sacre is simply in a league of his own and once again underlined the point with the ruthless destruction of this Grade 1 field, taking his unbeaten run over fences to seven in the process.

Already on a lofty 179 despite never having come off the bridle over fences, the imposing seven-year-old skimmed over the bog-like turf, justifying his 5-1-on price tag by 14 effortless lengths.

It goes without saying that the Queen Mother Champion Chase is his for the taking.

Of Saturday's hapless opposition, second-favourite Sanctuaire's hold-up tactics backfired, the habitual front-runner folding tamely up the hill. Only fourth, he ran some two stone below the level of his Desert Orchid victory over Kumbeshwar (fifth), whilst the latter had a rare off-day too, failing to make the frame for the first time in 12 completed starts.

Somersby, rated 165 on the strength of victory over Finian's Rainbow and Al Ferof (subsequent winners of the Champion Chase and the Paddy Power) in the corresponding event at Ascot last winter, ran with plenty of credit. Off with a splint problem since slammed by the free-wheeling Sanctuaire at Sandown last April, he unsurprisingly ran out of puff, losing second close home to the staying-on Mad Moose.

Unconsidered at 50-1, Mad Moose ran an extraordinary race. Gifted 20 lengths at the start, the blinkered nine-year-old looked sure to be swamped at the top of the hill but, having jumped three out in fifth place, the stamina that won him a 2m5f Cheltenham handicap in the mud last April (albeit off a mark of only 134) came into play. It would be dangerous to take his performance literally and, by raising h is rating 5lb to 143, I have not done so.


NAILED BY THE CROSS

There were two excellent races in my division from the Cheltenham meeting, writes Martin Greenwood. First up came the Neptune Investment Management Classic Novices' Hurdle which saw the end of The New One's unbeaten hurdles record. In my opinion, The New One lost very little in defeat and is surely still a very strong fancy for the 2m5f novice at the Festival.

Odds-on after sluicing up at Warwick a fortnight ago, The New One looked to have this race in the bag when quickening around three lengths clear only to be worn down near the line by the fast-improving At Fishers Cross.

Whereas The New One is blessed with plenty of speed for a staying novice, At Fishers Cross is at the other end of the scale and has stamina in bucket loads. On another day, maybe on less testing ground, or with The New One's jockey holding on to him a tad longer, the result could easily be different.

I don't want to take anything away from At Fishers Cross though, he is flying up the ratings and it is no surprise to see him one of the favourites for the 3m novice at the Festival - the longer trip can only suit him even more.

Both The New One and At Fishers Cross are rated 152, well above the usual standard for the Cheltenham race, while Coneygree, who was very disappointing and possibly had something amiss remains on 150. It is worth pointing out that Pont Alexandre's bloodless victory at Leopardstown could well supersede them all, and I will perhaps blog about that performance next week.

The very next race, the Rewards4Racing Cleeve Hurdle, almost left me in an identical position. Reve de Sivola further enhanced his phoenix from the ashes style renaissance by grittily edging out Oscar Whiskey who was bidding to convince us all about his stamina limitations. In giving 8lb and more and pulling six lengths and more away from middle of the road opposition, it's hard to argue Oscar Whisky didn't stay but at the same time I have him a few pounds below his best and the feeling that he is ideally suited by slightly shorter trips or less testing conditions at this one.

Maybe with a stronger pace the pair would have pulled even further clear, though again that would have put extra pressure on Oscar Whisky's stamina. My five-year race standard median is 163 which fits in snugly with the likes of Knockara Beau being beaten around ten lengths in receipt of weight. Reve de Sivola's pre-race rating was 166 (opposed to Oscar Whisky's 167 whom I haven't dropped), which came from the Long Walk at Ascot, when he strolled home and could be called anything. Bearing that in mind, I have edged up his rating 1lb so he now shares the same rating as Oscar Whisky.


GOLD CUP TRIAL IN DISGUISE?

The Grade 3 Murphy Group Handicap Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday was won in taking style by Katenko who has done nothing but improve since coming from France to join Venetia Williams, writes Mark Olley.

I based the race around the runner-up Fruity O'Rooney, who hails from the in-form Gary Moore yard and must be sick of seeing the backside of Katenko having also finished third to him at Sandown earlier in the month.

The form was given a solid look with Nadiya De Le Vega three lengths back in third and he clearly loves Cheltenham having won a valuable handicap there back in October and also finished third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

I called the twelve-length winning margin 11lb so that moves Katenko from 147 to a new rating of 158.

This would not be the most obvious race in which to look for Gold Cup clues, but interestingly The Giant Bolster won it last year from a rating of 145, and was coincidently moved to 158, before going on to finish an excellent second to Synchronised in the Gold Cup.

Both Aidan Coleman and Venetia Williams mentioned the Gold Cup in post-race interviews, along with the Grand National, and he would not have to improve much further for his rating to suggest place claims in an open year, especially if the ground was deep.

The other horse of real interest in the race is Our Mick who was still upsides Katenko when the two horses came together three out and left Jason Maguire on the turf. Donald McCain's gelding was in the process of running an excellent reappearance and it would be no surprise to see him win races this season.

[Colin Phillips]

The Captain just gets home in Scilly thriller

I was at Sandown on Saturday at the all-chase card which was a great day's racing despite the small field sizes, writes Phil Smith.

Unusually I was responsible for assessing the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase as normally it would be Mark Olley's race. As he was skiing somewhere inside the Arctic Circle I deputised for him and it was a thriller, as you often find with small-field pattern races when the horses are closely matched.

Captain Conan, who was top rated on 152 going into the race edged, home by a neck. When rating pattern races we often start with the winner if he was top rated going into the race. Three and a quarter lengths back in third was Houblon Des Obeaux who went into the race on 148. If I had both the first and the third running their race then my only problem was the second horse, Third Intention, who appeared to have improved from 142 to 151.

Third Intention has been a frustrating horse for connections as he has consistently run well behind Captain Conan but without looking like beating him. That is until Saturday. On our computer system two runs ago John de Moraville had put a small "t" next to his name when he had been third over 2m meaning he thought that Third Intention would be suited by further. Last time I put a capital "T" next to him after he ran over 3m meaning I felt that he had not stayed 3m. Perhaps we were both right and his best trip is 2m4f. It seemed justified in putting him up to 151.

I now looked at race averages for the previous four years. The winning performance was 154 and the second was 149.25. My 152 and 151 were certainly in those ball parks. I next checked the race times as there were three races on Saturday over the Scilly Isles trip. Both Captain Conan's race and that of Dashing George (won off 123 by nine lengths) were truly run races and Captain Conan's time was just under three seconds faster which equates to 12lb on heavy ground. As he also carried 9lb more than Dr Newland's handicap winner after adding back in Joshua Moore's claim, the Captain comes out a 21lb better horse. I put Dashing George on 131.

Perhaps surprisingly, Captain Conan could only share my best performance of the week. Carruthers won his second consecutive handicap chase off 147 and I have him on 152 now which is the same as he was after he won his Hennessy in 2011. We are often accused of only dropping horses very slowly after they win a race but after a succession of mediocre performances I had dropped Carruthers a stone before his previous run at Ffos Las when he had stormed home by 15 lengths.

I had put him up 9lb for that win which caused me to feel the wrath of the trainer's wife so it was pleasing to see that the logic and analysis I had explained to her was subsequently shown to be appropriate. The victory of Cloudy Too at Wetherby also caused a wry smile in my house as the trainer's husband had harangued me for having him "so bloody high he can't win".

Perhaps there should be a tipping line called "Trainers' Spouse". Everything they thought was too high would have brought in a tidy profit last week.

JUST CHAMPION

The feature race at Ffos Las on Saturday was Welsh Champion Hurdle, writes Chris Nash.

From previously being a 2m level-weights race it is now a 2m4f limited handicap and the changes appeared to have had the desired effect as a field of 14 lined up for what looked a competitive race beforehand.

In testing ground the gallop looked fair and I would expect the form to be of some substance. The first three all travelled noticeably well going to two out - they fought out a decent finish and put fifteen lengths and upwards between them and the rest. The winner was Medinas, running off a mark of 140, who finished one and a quarter lengths ahead of Peckhamecho (running off 138) with Tanerko Emery (off 135) a further neck away in third. I settled on a rise of 8lb for the winner and 6lb for the placed horses.

Whilst the result will have no bearing on the Champion Hurdle next month there must be every chance of the first three appearing in a handicap at the Festival. The way all three travelled through this race suggests they would have little trouble in holding a position in a helter-skelter festival handicap.

Medinas is qualified for the Pertemps Final over 3m although his revised rating of 148 means he won't be eligible for the Martin Pipe over 2m 4½f as this is a 0-145 race. However, that race could be a likely destination for Peckhamecho (revised rating of 144) and perhaps more so for Tanerko Emery (revised rating of 141), with the latter representing David Pipe who will no doubt be keen to land the race run in his Dad's honour.

STRAIGHT TO THE PONT

As I alluded to in last week's blog, Pont Alexandre's stylish win at Leopardstown a week last Sunday has indeed propelled him to the top of the tree among the staying novices, writes Martin Greenwood.

German bred and successful over hurdles on his only start in France, Pont Alexandre has made a stunning start with his new stable, winning a Grade 1 at Navan in some style on his debut for the yard, being left clear at the last, and then following up in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown by 11 lengths and more from some decent opposition. Making all on the latter track, Pont Alexandre had plenty in the tank crossing the line and looks a real prospect.

Median standards suggest I should be looking around 150 for the winner, but given the style of victory I have rated him 154 which puts him marginally in front of At Fishers Cross and The New One. With running plans as usual a little cloudy at the time of writing regarding Cheltenham Festival plans it's hard to know which horse will be top rated in which race, but it's fairly safe to say that all three horses mentioned look to hold outstanding chances.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA

[Colin Phillips]

Silviniaco Conti continues to progress in style

I was impressed with Silviniaco Conti at Newbury on Saturday in the Betfair Denman Chase, writes Phil Smith.

In the last year his performances have been 144, 156, 168, 172, and on Saturday I have him running to 175. The chances are that he will have to improve again to win this year's Gold Cup as Bobs Worth is moving in a similar direction - he has run to 148, 160 and 171 on his last three outings. Don't forget Long Run either as after a 163 blip in last year's Gold Cup he has recovered with efforts of 168 and 172 this season.

What I liked about Silviniaco Conti was his staying power because Saturday's race was run at a fierce pace. The ex-French Mail De Bievre set a scorching gallop until his stamina gave way and the time was just under 16 seconds faster than that of Unioniste in the novice chase later on the card. That equates to more than 60 lengths on the prevailing soft ground.

Compare that to Sir Des Champs (who I had running to 171) whose Leopardstown win was only around four seconds faster than the hunter chase later on in the day won by Salsify. Admittedly Salsify won last year's Foxhunter at Cheltenham but his rating is only 137.

At Warwick Godsmejudge continues to progress as a novice. His performances have been 92, 128, 134 and now 139. As novices go he is pretty experienced and streetwise as on his previous run he had finished second in the Betfred Classic at Warwick against older staying handicappers, finishing just in front of this year's Hunt Ball, Pete The Feat.

Meanwhile another noteworthy performance came from Ruben Cotter who ran to 139 on his chasing debut at Doncaster, beating a solid performer in Vintage Star (137).

ONE POTENTIAL STAR IS LOST, ANOTHER EMERGES

The loss of Darlan last Monday was a tragedy for all involved with the horse, writes David Dickinson.

It was a tragedy for all true jump racing fans as well. Few of us are in a position to miss seeing his head peering out of his box every morning but the loss of untapped potential is something that always touches a nerve. Names like Golden Cygnet and Killiney are still mentioned with both admiration and sadness. Just what would they have achieved? Now we sadly add Darlan's name to that list.

Racing didn't take long to answer back though. Running off a mark of 149, handicap debutant My Tent Or Yours didn't look to have a straightforward task in Saturday's Betfair Hurdle, representing Darlan's connections. Not only did he win, he did so with so much authority that there are now single-figure Champion Hurdle quotes for the novice. He would need to be supplemented to go down that route.

There are holes that can be picked in Saturday's race. There was no obvious front-runner so the steady pace saw the field stacked up tightly to the home turn. Leaving the rail behind on the run to three out, the pace appeared to be quickened markedly by those at the head of affairs and those racing off it were left at a sizeable disadvantage. That said it would be hard to fault the manner of My Tent Or Yours' success.

As a race, it was surprisingly easy to rate. The winner was running in his first handicap, the second was having his first run over the trip, the third was unbeaten and the fourth had only been beaten once in five hurdle starts, recording very much a career-best on his most recent one. Fifth home was the admirable Ladbroke runner-up Petit Robin, who I have used as my marker horse. True, his Ascot conqueror Cause Of Causes ran no race on Saturday but the Ladbroke form had already been franked by Double Ross and the aforementioned Cause Of Causes, who beat Midnight Game at Naas in January.

Using Petit Robin as the marker, Dark Lover goes up 2lb to 150, Swing Bowler is up 4lb to 138, Cotton Mill is up 5lb to 150 and My Tent Or Yours goes up 13lb to 162 - I called the five-length margin 8lb to reflect his having more in hand. If this rating is confirmed at the end of the season he will be the highest-rated 2m novice hurdler during my tenure. The last novice hurdler with a higher rating was Iris's Gift, who earned a mark of 167 when beaten narrowly by Baracouda in the 2003 Stayers' Hurdle.

SOUTHWELL RETURNS

Racing and I returned to Southwell on Tuesday 11 weeks after the floods arrived, writes Matthew Tester.

The team there has done a great job, to the relief of a number of trainers who have been patiently waiting for its reopening.

The surface at Southwell is quite different from that at any other all-weather track and it suits a different sort of horse. It favours a strong galloper rather than a speed merchant although it does not pay to get too far behind.

Plenty of the track had to be relaid once the flood receded. My speed figures suggest that it was riding about two seconds a mile slower than before the flood. Experience says that it will bed in over the coming weeks and that the times will get faster, but at the moment you will need a horse with more than enough stamina. Anything that wins there may want a longer trip if they travel to any of the other all-weather tracks.

It was snowing throughout the afternoon and the jockeys looked frozen. As one of them asked, "how long until Glorious Goodwood?"

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA

[davidjohnson]

The last novice hurdler with a higher rating was Iris's Gift, who earned a mark of 167 when beaten narrowly by Baracouda in the 2003 Stayers' Hurdle.

The above is not wrong, but worth remembering the performance of the French-trained (so never alloted a published BHA mark) Baracouda who won the Long Walk at Ascot as a novice by 14 lengths from Deano's Beano and had a Timeform rating in his novice season of 176.

[Grasshopper]

DJ, was le Sauvignon a 2nd-season hurdler when he copped his high TF rating (think it was 178?).

[Colin Phillips]

Card delivers at Ascot but where to go next?
THE Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase was won in clear-cut fashion by Cue Card on Saturday, but that doesn't tell the entire story as Captain Chris was throwing down a strong challenge when making a bad mistake two out and effectively ending the race as a contest, writes Mark Olley.

In my opinion Cue Card was still travelling just the better of the duo, but as Captain Chris stays 3m well, the race was far from over and I wouldn't like to say for certain which way it would have gone.

The standards I have for the race suggest a figure of around 153 for the third horse. This ties in fairly well with Ghizao, as he has a string of 155 efforts this season, so there was no reason to raise his rating for this run. I slightly extended the seven and a half lengths between Ghizao and Cue Card due to the latter being slightly eased close home, but this still didn't get Colin Tizzard's gelding running above his pre-race 165 rating and so I have left it unchanged.

In an historical context Cue Card is an average winner of this event - Riverside Theatre performed to 170 when winning in 2012 and 2011, while Kauto Star's 176 is the highest rating this century.

Post-race reports suggest Cue Card's connections are undecided which Cheltenham path to tread. Take on Sprinter Sacre in the Queen Mother Champion Chase or head for the Ryanair in which Cue Card is favourite? If it were my choice I would go for the Ryanair, but then I would say that as the 2m5f chase handicapper.

Looking at the betting in the Racing Post on Monday morning, the first seven are Cue Card, First Lieutenant, Sizing Europe, Riverside Theatre, Champion Court, Menorah and Finian's Rainbow. I doubt they will all turn up, but I can wish and if they do I will be putting ratings on the race of the Festival!

I also look after the bumper races and there were some top-class performers on display for the 2m bumper at Ascot on Saturday. Unfortunately, but understandably, Red Sherlock does not seem to be heading for Cheltenham after his hard fought win. This race has been won by the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Vino Griego in recent years so it has a history of producing some pretty decent sorts.

I don't have many above Red Sherlock in the bumper pecking order, but for the record my top two are currently Oscar Rock and Golantilla.

STRESSED ERIC
Several long years ago after I had been in my current position a short period of time, a certain West Country ‘journalist' remarked to a former Timeform colleague of mine that ‘Martin Greenwood is singlehandedly ruining National Hunt racing'.

Apparently his reasoning behind this overly dramatic remark was that since I had started it was no longer possible that horses could defy my new rating to win successive races, never mind run up a sequence.

The so called font of wisdom has been proved wrong time and time again over the years and the last week saw two further horses belittle his wild accusations.

Of the three handicaps run in my division on Saturday, two were won by horses on a sequence. At Wincanton, Xaarcet, trained conveniently in the West Country, landed his hat-trick off 109 having previously defied marks of 95 and 101 and now will aim to land his fourth consecutive race off 120.

One horse who already achieved that feat is the rapidly improving Seymour Eric, who has proved a revelation since switching to the yard of Martin Keighley. Luckily for Martin, previous connections could not find the key to Seymour Eric and he started his ‘new life' off a mark of 85 and duly lagged in at Hereford. Since then Seymour Eric has won off 92 and 110 and lined up in the Pertemps qualifier at Haydock off 121 (including being 1lb ‘wrong').

The extra 36lb he had to endure since Hereford proved absolutely no burden and he won again in some style by four and a half lengths from a decent enough field, and presumably he'll now be aimed at the Final at the Festival. Seymour Eric's new rating is now 135, fully 50lb higher than in December, and that may not be the end of it.

Our job as handicappers is not to ‘stop' horses from winning any race, never mind a sequence. We just try very hard to give everyone a fair crack of the whip. Every season a certain number of fast improvers will be able to keep one step in front of us but that is just part of the game. Hopefully the aforementioned journalist can now report that all is back on an even keel!

DUKES UP
There were a few decent performances amongst the novice hurdlers last week which could well have an influence on the festival races to come at Cheltenham and/or Aintree, writes Chris Nash.

The first was at Kelso on Thursday where the Nicky Richards-trained Duke of Navan put up an impressive display to win the 2m2f Betvictor Morebattle Hurdle.

It wasn't an easy race to level with the winner beating Any Given Day by two and a half lengths at level weights. The runner-up had a pre-race rating of 155 but I have little doubt that he failed to run to that level. He had run to a figure of 145 when reappearing last time out in a handicap off his mark of 155 and for want of any better solution I took the view that he repeated this effort at Kelso.

This has the winner running a figure of 148 and that will be his revised rating. That is a 10lb rise from his pre-race rating but his form has a very progressive look and it would be hard to argue that we saw anything other than a career best at Kelso. Connections indicated afterwards that Aintree (rather than Cheltenham) was his likeliest destination.

At Sandown on Friday the Nicky Henderson-trained Utopie Des Bordes won the 2m4f mares' Listed hurdle. She was a Grade 1 chase winner when previously trained in France although she remained a maiden hurdler over there and left France with ratings of 152 chasing and 146 hurdling. At Sandown she received 5lb from the admirably consistent She Ranks Me (rated 135) and beat her by a length and three quarters.

I think it is perfectly fair to assume that the runner-up ran her race again which had the winner running a bare figure of 132 - although she looked to me to be idling in front.

However, any interpretation of this form has her below her lofty French figures which was also the case when she won at Doncaster on her British debut. I will be trimming her hurdles rating to a mark of 142 which, given that she would receive a 7lb mares' allowance, still suggests she could be very competitive in a festival novice hurdle. Connections were indicating a preference for the 3m Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham but it would be no surprise if the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle was also given consideration.

A word too for the Willie Mullins-trained Twigline who fell at the last in this Sandown race when bang in contention. Quite what the result would have been is open to debate but suffice to say that she too would have run a figure very close to 132 on what was only her second hurdles start.

Finally a mention for the highly progressive novice hurdler Up And Go trained by Donald McCain. He won the first race at Ascot on Saturday over 2m3f in very taking fashion, giving weight and a beating to horses with established form.

The dual Cesarewitch winner Aaim To Prosper finished second, beaten six lengths and receiving 5lb from the winner. His opening handicap rating on the back of this will be 124. This has Up And Go running a bare figure of 135+ but given that he looked 12 lengths clear over the last before being eased I am happy to factor this superiority into his official rating.

I settled on a mark of 142 which equates to him being treated as a 13-length winner. This figure and his rate of progress suggests that he would not look out of place in a festival novice race.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA

[Colin Phillips]

Focus switches with jumps assessors flat out
SATURDAY saw the biggest day of the all-weather season so far with Lingfield's Winter Derby Trial card, and with the NH assessors snowed under finalising the weights for the Cheltenham handicaps that's the focus of this week's blog. We lead off with our take on Planteur's Dubai World Cup prep in the feature.

PLANT NOT YET IN BLOOM

When a horse lowers a track record it's often worth waxing lyrical over the performance, yet Planteur was arguably a shade disappointing in the Listed Winter Derby Trial as he went in rated 23lb higher than the runner-up, Miblish, and 31lb higher than third-placed Tepmokea, writes Stephen Hindle.

Strictly on the figures, that makes his superiority over those two, namely a neck over the second and two and a half lengths over the third, well below what might have been expected.

Miblish was rated 101 at best, Tepmokea 97, but they went in rated 98 and 90 respectively and, as Tepmokea hasn't won since May 2011, I felt it would be a touch harsh to say he has suddenly returned to his best. That said, with the fourth and fifth rated comfortably into the 90s it also seemed fair to raise Tepmokea from his pre-race 90.

I wanted to keep Miblish below 100 as he failed to make the frame in handicaps off marks of 101 and 100 on his previous two starts, so I went for 99 Miblish and 95 Tepmokea.

After all that number crunching, I have Planteur running to 102, which includes a couple extra for winning a shade cosily. That still leaves him 19lb below his best of 121, which he has produced on a number of occasions, most recently when third in the Dubai World Cup last year.

That race is apparently the plan again and, while this was hardly an impressive return from six months off, it was a satisfactory one. While he has made the running successfully in the past, Planteur hasn't made a habit of it more recently, so perhaps that was not ideal in this. All things considered, I decided to leave his mark unchanged at 121.

LADIES FIRST

While the Winter Derby Trial took most of the headlines at Lingfield on Saturday there was plenty more quality on the supporting card and it was my job to assess the sprint action that took place, writes Stewart Copeland.

The Listed 6f Bluesquare.com Cleves Stakes saw the fairer sex gain a third win from the last four runnings of the contest. The spoils on this occasion went to the five-year-old Ladies Are Forever, who largely reproduced the level of form she'd shown when second in a similar contest at the Surrey track late last year.

She's been credited with a rating of 99, which also ties in neatly with what the pre-race and historical standards are telling me the race is worth.

The other feature contest I dealt with was the third running of the 6f Blue Square Bet Sprint Series Grand Final Handicap. It's a laudable initiative by those involved, and once again the series produced some exciting finishes through the fourteen qualifiers that took place during the seven-week lead up to this final.

The betting suggested it was a wide-open final, but in the end there was a fairly emphatic winner, with the six-year-old gelding Jack My Boy powering clear in the straight to win by three lengths. This means his rating has been raised by 9lb from 73 to 82, but given he was once rated in the low 90s, there may still be better to come.

In assessing both races one aspect I took into account was the sectionals produced in each race, and the impact they had on each horse and the race as a whole. A detailed breakdown of the Cleves compared to the Blue Square Final, shows the former was run at a much slower pace to halfway, but was markedly quicker than the handicap after that. The latter is hardly a surprise considering the quality of the field in the Listed contest. As for the Blue Square that was run at an even pace throughout.

In summary, even though the overall end times were only separated by a few pounds, how they were achieved was notably different. Sectional timing would be a useful addition to the sport if it was introduced but currently the process would appear difficult and expensive. The use of sectional timing in the Qipco British Champions Series was an encouraging step however, and it's to be hoped one day it will spread further down the various tiers of racing in this country, particularly all-weather racing.

ON THE OTHER HANS

The claimer I dealt with over 7f at Kempton on Wednesday proved very straightforward to assess, with the clear of pick of the weights Hurricane Spirit landing the odds by five lengths, but I came in for a surprise the following day when reading the winning trainer's quote in the Racing Post, writes Graeme Smith.

Hans Adielsson has obviously placed Hurricane Spirit well to win claimers on four of his last five starts, but his claim that he'd rather not risk losing the horse in such races but that his hand has been forced as 'the handicapper has him by the throat' is rather hard to take.

At Kempton Hurricane Spirit beat a horse in Only Ten Per Cent who'd run to 71 in handicaps on his last two starts (he's now rated 71 on all-weather) by five lengths in receipt of 10lb - therefore running to a reasonably solid figure of 71 using 2lb per length as we tend to at that trip. Going through the third horse Masai Moon, who'd been touched off in a handicap last time, gets that figure higher.

The only time Hurricane Spirit has run in handicap company within his last five starts was over 1m at Kempton in late January from his current rating of 71, and he finished a very competitive third of eleven, beaten a neck and a head. It wouldn't have been hard to justify a small rise in Hurricane Spirit's mark following that run, while the form has since been upheld in handicap company by the winner, fourth and fifth. So what exactly is the handicapping argument for saying we've got his mark completely wrong?

Mr Adielsson, by all means continue to target claimers if you're happy to put Hurricane Spirit in on an advantageous weight, but don't point the finger at us if someone takes him away.

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA

[reet hard]

Sectionals - for Lingfield?
Anyone on here know where he got them from?

[EC1]

Sectionals - for Lingfield?
Anyone on here know where he got them from?

i'll guess

http://www.timeanddate.com/stopwatch/

[Colin Phillips]

That was my thought as well.

[reet hard]

Thanks, EC and Col.
I was rather hoping this was some innovation, where they actually published data for the better AW races. Maybe it's my inbuilt scepticism, but I find it hard to believe the OH would find the initiative to apply the science off his own bat, as it were.

[davidjohnson]

DJ, was le Sauvignon a 2nd-season hurdler when he copped his high TF rating (think it was 178?).

Didn't see this Grasshopper, sorry. Think so, certainly don't think he was a novice. That rating did come under revision, and though a rating once in an annual can't really be taken back, he doesn't have a performance rating higher than 168 now.

[EC1]

Thanks, EC and Col.
I was rather hoping this was some innovation, where they actually published data for the better AW races. Maybe it's my inbuilt scepticism, but I find it hard to believe the OH would find the initiative to apply the science off his own bat, as it were.

its certainly a new development...maybe he's been reading a few forums

[Colin Phillips]

Five-timers and imports prove tricky to assess
If there is a trend in this week’s piece it’s horses we’ve found difficult to nail down. From a French import to a pair of prolific winners, a couple of our NH handicappers go into how their skills have been tested in recent weeks. Further on, Dominic Gardiner-Hill gives an insight into his thought process in dealing with a tricky result from the all-weather.

BACARDY? MAYBE IT’S THE HANDICAPPER WHO NEEDS A DRINK!

Much was made last week of the Warwick win of David Pipe’s French import Ballynagour, writes David Dickinson.

With the Pipe horse undoubtedly Festival bound, another French import had his moment in the sun at Newbury last Friday in the shape of the Tony Carroll-trained Le Bacardy. He’d been given an initial mark of 120 in Britain following five victories during a busy campaign in France in 2012, and it would seem no one thought the mark unduly lenient as Le Bacardy was sent off at 16-1 in a 2m4f Uttoxeter handicap on his British debut. He ran a perfectly respectable race that day, finishing fourth.

So to last Friday’s Newbury race when, reverting to the minimum distance, Le Bacardy was sent off 8-1 joint-fifth favourite. Faster ground and the first signs of spring saw the horse leave his initial UK run well behind. I have used the fourth horse, The Mumper, as my benchmark but such was the ease of Le Bacardy’s victory that his mark goes up 12lb to 132. Such a rise merits a step up in class, possibly as soon as this Saturday, when the horse holds an entry in the Paddy Power Imperial Cup.

His French claiming hurdle career began after finishing fifth in a handicap at Auteuil in May. Who finished ninth that day? Ballynagour!

IMPROVING FAST

The middle distance hurdle group saw two horses complete handicap five-timers last week, writes Chris Nash.

As a handicapper it can grate a little when horses run up sequences and you find yourself looking back at the previous form to see whether you had underestimated it originally, but having been through that angst with both horses my conscience is clear and my confidence remains intact.

Both benefitted from good placing as they took advantage of the penalty system. It also gives further credence to the point made by my colleague, Martin Greenwood, in this feature two weeks ago that our job is not to stop last-time-out winners from winning again but to try to equalise the form so that the beaten horses have a fair chance next time.

So take a bow Sue Smith with Coverholder and Philip Hobbs with Thunderstorm.

Coverholder started his sequence by winning a 2m selling handicap at Catterick off a mark of 70 in late December for Tim Vaughan and was acquired by Sue Smith in the subsequent auction. He went on to win a second handicap at Doncaster off his reassessed mark of 81 in early February, and as that was a conditional jockeys race he then avoided a penalty when following up at Kelso seven days later before his reassessed mark came into effect. His fourth straight success came at Wetherby from his post-Doncaster mark (91) plus a 7lb penalty for Kelso (therefore 98) another week on.

Interestingly, the way the system works he was able to complete his five-timer from the lower mark of just 92 at Bangor turned out quickly once more – his post-Kelso figure was 92 and he escaped a penalty for Wetherby with that having been another conditionals’ race. All in all, he’s improved a total of 42lb in little over two months to a figure of 112 and has been really well placed to take maximum advantage of the penalty system in doing so.

Thunderstorm has taken a little longer to complete his five-timer. His victories have been characterised by a combination of seemingly idling when getting to the front and/or being nursed home by Tony McCoy who has ridden him to all five successes.

His sequence started in mid-December when he returned to the track after an absence of almost two years. He won a Plumpton handicap off a mark of 93, beating exposed modest horses by just a length and a quarter. He was given a 5lb rise to 98 and won again at Leicester in early January, again beating exposed sorts by a relatively narrow margin (two lengths).

He then defied a further 5lb rise at Towcester by a length and a quarter but this time had more space back to the others and as such went up 12lb to 115. Market Rasen next time saw a cheeky success for all he won by just a neck and we revised his rating to 126 on the back of it. The five-timer was completed at Taunton last week under a 7lb penalty for Market Rasen (he was therefore 4lb well in against his new mark following the 11lb rise) by half a length, which brought about a new rating of 131 and took his total improvement within an eleven-week period to 38lb.

Thunderstorm has no entries before the latest revision to his mark takes effect but has been put in Saturday’s Imperial Cup over 2m at Sandown. His mark of 131 will guarantee him a run in that race. Whether that proves the case in the Martin Pipe handicap at the Cheltenham festival remains to be seen however – his rating of 126 when the race closed plus a 5lb penalty for Taunton means he figures on 131. The bottom weight last season was rated 132.

SHOWING THE WORKINGS

There were a couple of decent one mile handicaps to keep the grey matter ticking over last week, the first of which I thought was going to prove somewhat tricky to nail down in terms of the level, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.

The BetVictor Non-Runner Free Bet at Cheltenham Handicap at Kempton last Monday had a competitive look to it but Marco Botti’s progressive Guest of Honour was backed down to odds-on favourite to the exclusion of virtually everything else, eventually going off 10-11 with the remainder 6-1 or bigger. There is an old adage that ‘something always comes to the handicapper’s rescue’ – although I have yet to be convinced – but on this occasion it proved correct as the resurgent 10-1-shot Loyalty hung on to give young Adam McLean a first winner by a diminishing nose.

So far so good, but the real problem from a handicapping point of view was the five-length gap back to the third Stir Trader – an in-form horse who’d won two of his previous four starts and had run right up to his mark of 78 when runner-up over course and distance on his most recent outing. Using him as a guide, I would have needed to put Loyalty up 11lb and Guest of Honour up 10lb for pulling so far clear – I felt this would be unduly harsh on both so set about finding a ‘more realistic’ solution.

After numerous viewings of the race I came to the conclusion that Loyalty and Guest of Honour had been advantaged in racing close to the steady pace, catching the rest of the field out when quickening and probably ending up flattered by the gap they managed to open up. That still left me with the problem of deciding by how much!

Thankfully Derek Shaw, the trainer of Loyalty, unknowingly helped me out by running the six-year-old again at Lingfield on Saturday under a 6lb penalty, which equated to a handicap mark of 91. While I cannot state categorically that he ran the same race there as he did at Kempton, I have him running to 92 in finishing second and will move his official all-weather mark to that level – a rise of 7lb from his winning Kempton rating, which sits comfortably with me. Given that he was nose behind at the Sunbury track, it follows that Guest of Honour should go up 6lb to 91.

Now all I can do is sit back and wait for them to run again and see if my thought processes were anywhere close to the mark!

This blog appears courtesy of the BHA

[Colin Phillips]

One for the little man


We keep hearing how the Nicholls and Henderson stables are winning all the big races but Saturday’s Imperial Cup proved quite the opposite with the small Laura Mongan-operation gaining by far its biggest success, with a little-known jockey in the saddle too. Needless to say, that’s our lead piece this week, and it’s complemented by a small preview of the Champion Bumper and a roundup of the best action from a good Saturday card on Wolverhampton’s polytrack.

IMPERIAL SUCCESS FOR UP AND COMING PAIR

First Avenue’s victory in Saturday’s Paddy Power Imperial Cup was the most important one yet in the careers of trainer Laura Mongan and 10lb-claiming jockey Nathan Adams, who looked ecstatic as the pair crossed the line, writes David Dickinson.

The jockey, son of former Flat pilot Nicky Adams, no doubt felt justice was being done as he had delivered First Avenue with what looked a winning run at the course in November only for the pairing to come down at the last, leaving Adams’ collarbone broken in five places. This time, however, he was able to sit off the very strong pace in the conditions, and both he and runner-up Tanerko Emery still had a dozen horses in front of them turning for home.

Once the clear leader Kazlian had made a complete hash of the second last the winner and the top weight always looked likely to fight out the finish, with Adams big claim proving decisive in such testing conditions as the pilot rode his fourth winner.

First Avenue was another to show that running against much higher rated horses in a conditions race doesn’t end your chances of winning a handicap in the same season. At Kempton in October he took on a trio of much higher rated rivals in receipt of just 8lb and finished within six lengths off Get Me Out Of Here (rated 158) and Brampour (then rated 161), with Australia Day (145) behind him. The outcome rating wise is that his mark rose from 123 to 128, and it went up 4lb more to 132 for that last flight tumble. Back to 130 on Saturday following defeat when slightly hampered in the Ladbroke, those earlier rises proved no barrier to victory.

Saturday’s race is no easy one to rate, the ground was desperately tacky and many horses, probably including hot favourite Mr Mole, failed to act on it. The nearest thing there is to a benchmark in the race is the fourth Barizan but he made two serious jumping errors and cannot have run quite to his mark. I have returned Kazlian to the 136 figure that he ran in the Fred Winter last March, Tanerko Emery goes up 6lb to 147 and First Avenue is up 10lb to 140. All of a sudden, that Kempton form doesn’t look quite so flattering.

Imperial Cup day has traditionally had six races but a seventh was added to the front of the card for the first time on Saturday in the shape of a 0-125 handicap hurdle restricted to juveniles. What a good idea, sadly not mine but the BHA’s Richard Russell’s according to Sandown Clerk of the Course Andrew Cooper. Juvenile handicaps prior to Cheltenham’s Fred Winter have tended to struggle but this one should work - eleven were declared overnight, although four declined the worsening ground conditions by post time.

The lowest weighted horse to run in last year’s Cheltenham race was rated 125 and Saturday’s winner Calculated Risk could well sneak in the bottom with the penalty he picks up should connections decide he can go again quickly.

A BUMPER SET OF FIGURES

Anyone buying a racecard at Cheltenham will notice that there are ratings next to each horse in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper, writes Mark Olley.

The BHA does not publish official handicap ratings for horses in National Hunt Flat Races, however we do put performance figures to every horse in each race and these are the figures shown in the racecard.

We keep these figures so that we have an idea of each horse’s ability when it comes to the bumpers at Cheltenham and Aintree and we have to decide which horses get in those races in the event that they are over-subscribed.

For anyone interested, and who does not have access to the Cheltenham racecard, the figures are listed below and you can see our idea of which horses have achieved the most on the racecourse so far.

131 Golantilla; 130 Regal Encore; 129 Vieux Lion Rouge and Union Dues; 128 Empiracle and Milo Man; 126 The Liquidator and Sizing Tennessee; 123 Blackmail; 122 I’m Fraam Govan; 120 Doctor Harper and Sgt Reckless; 119 Vinstar and Le Vent D’Antan; 118 Posiden Sea, Hellorboston, Fascino Rustico, Caledonia and Briar Hill; 117 Johnny Og, Our Pollyanna, Pure Science, Monkey Kingdom and Drumlee.

116 Gallant Tipp and Kayf Moss; 115 Purple Bay and Centasia; 114 Mister Nibbles; 112 Shield and The Clock Leary; 110 Be Bop Boru; 108 Unowhatimeanharry; 107 Yes Sir Brian; 95 Lady Lectra.

The second group are the horses that are involved in the elimination sequence and need others to drop out at the overnight entry stage in order to get a run. For example Shield, trained by Aidan O’Brien, needs six horses to come out to get a run.

SOLAR POWER

Saturday’s EBF Williamhill.com Lady Wulfruna Stakes at Wolverhampton came up well short of the race’s historical standards, but that doesn’t mean the winner Solar Deity won’t make his presence felt in other good races in the coming weeks, writes Graeme Smith.

Marco Botti’s four-year-old came into the 7f contest having won handicaps on three of his last four starts and ran the 105-rated Kenny Powers down in the final strides to make his transition to listed company a successful one. The sticking point as far as the level of the race goes is the proximity of several rivals rated in the 80s, including Verse of Love who was beaten a little over two lengths into third.

I acknowledge that Verse of Love might well be flattered by his proximity having raced up with the steady gallop along with Kenny Powers but felt I couldn’t justify a new mark of any more than 90 for him. That figure ties in neatly with the pre-race marks of Docofthebay and Light From Mars, who finished fifth and sixth, and brought about performance ratings of 95+ for Solar Deity and 94 Kenny Powers.

Kenny Powers had run to 105 when finishing in the frame in Dubai twice in recent weeks, but the pace of this race simply wasn’t conducive to him running to that sort of figure, whilst his running straight ‘off the plane’ perhaps also explains the below-par showing.

Solar Deity’s base performance of 95 tallies with his pre-race mark, and I factored in an extra 1lb for his short-head defeat of Kenny Powers after he’d given that one a start in a race where it paid to be handy. The 5lb penalty Solar Deity picks up for the Lincoln means he’ll look poorly in on official figures, but it would be no surprise were he to fare better than that would suggest – he’s been on an upward curve throughout the winter and the return to 1m promises to suit him well.

The following race on the Wolverhampton card was the William Hill Lincoln Trial where Strictly Silver also earned himself a 5lb penalty for Doncaster with a half-length defeat of Guest of Honour. Dominic Gardiner-Hill dealt with this race and the fallout of his assessment is that a 6lb rise for Strictly Silver means he’ll be 1lb well in if lining up at Doncaster. Guest of Honour is unlikely to make the cut for the Lincoln having been rated only 85 when the weights were published, but his mark has increased twice since then and this latest 5lb rise to 96 means he’ll be 11lb well in if taking his chance in the consolation race.

[Colin Phillips]

Bobs worth a 180 rating
Before the race it looked as if a high 170, low 180 performance would be needed to win this year's Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup and sure enough, Bobs Worth outstayed the field to achieve a solid 180 mark, writes Phil Smith.

It seemed sensible to rate the race through The Giant Bolster who is admirably consistent on 164 which he has now posted in four of his last five races.

Six lengths in front of him was Long Run giving him a 170 which was what I had him running to when he won the King George at Kempton over Christmas. It is always reassuring for a handicapper to have two marker horses in the one race and these two regular performers give the race a secure footing.

As a result Sir Des Champs recorded a 173. He had always looked capable of achieving this sort of figure if he got his jumping together at Cheltenham where he has such a good record. He would have been a worthy winner, indeed his rating is the same as his owner's War Of Attrition who won the race in 2006.

Since Bobs Worth was all out to win by 7 lengths, I called the winner a 7lb better horse than Sir Des Champs hence the figure of 180. At this point the figures have been agreed by Noel O'Brien, Ireland's Senior National Hunt Handicapper, but of course a lot can happen between now and the end of the season with Aintree and Punchestown still to come, so it will be interesting to see how we rate Bobs Worth in the 2012/13 Anglo-Irish Jumps Classification.

At present he is the fourth highest Gold Cup winner of the last 15 years behind Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander, very illustrious company.

It was no surprise that Bobs Worth won the Gold Cup as his Hennessy form looked so solid with the subsequent exploits of Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant in the Lexus at Leopardstown at Christmas. However, I have to confess to some head scratching following the running of the RSA. It was a somewhat unsatisfactory race with Boston Bob falling at the last fence.

Both the winner and second had seemed exposed as being short of top class but in fairness to them they clearly improved for the step up in trip and a truly run race as most of the novice chases in Ireland this winter have been slowly run on desperate ground.

Eventually after much thought and mind changing I decided to base the race through a combination of Hadrian's Approach and the average winning performance in the race over the last ten years. I had Hadrian's Approach on 147 from both his second in the Feltham to Dynaste and his close run behind Unioniste at Newbury.

This brought Lyreen Legend to 153 and the winner, Lord Windermere to 155. The average winning end of season rating of the RSA has been 156 over the last ten years so Jim Culloty's charge is rated as marginally below the average RSA winner.

However, what to do with Boston Bob? Opinions will vary as to where he would have finished had he completed and private handicappers could take a view that he might well have won. However, as the official Handicapper it is just not possible for me to have a faller higher than the first two finishers when the result was still in doubt so I have assessed him on 152.

Remember it is an awfully long way home from that last fence as Bobs Worth showed in the Gold Cup. It is not often that a horse finishing sixth in a top race catches one's eye but I was very much taken with the run of Goulanes (145 in only his second chase having been slightly hampered). I am sure he is a horse with a future.

The John Oaksey National Hunt Chase was much easier to assess as our top rated Back In Focus (150 going into the race) defeated Tofino Bay our second top rated on 149 by half a length with the rest of the field well beaten off. Tofino Bay has solid handicap form his Troytown win at Navan to give him his 149 so it made sense to accept the result at face value and leave them on 150 and 149. It makes Back In Focus the second highest winner of the race in the last ten years.

Overall at all distances and over both obstacles there were very few surprises in the championship races and the form worked out pretty well. One of the reasons for this was the amazing job Simon Claisse and his staff did with the ground. In just a couple of days they were faced with freezing temperatures and torrential rain on ground that already had a very high water table.

For the last four months there have been a plethora of non-runners because of the heavy ground and every day jockeys have come in and reported, "he couldn't handle the ground sir." Last week there was one non-runner because of the ground and not one jockey reported that a fancied runner was disadvantaged by the surface. In the circumstances Simon was a star of this year's festival.

Read more Cheltenham reaction from the BHA handicappers at - http://bit.ly/15lWwaP

[Colin Phillips]

Fly regains crown but time isn't supreme
Hurricane Fly became only the second horse ever to regain Cheltenham's Stan James Champion Hurdle crown when defeating his 2012 conqueror Rock On Ruby in a pulsating opening day clash, writes David Dickinson.

Much may be made of the fact that his time was quite a bit slower than that set by Champagne Fever when winning the opening William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle but that is open to a slightly different interpretation.

Clerk of the Course Simon Claisse was of the opinion that the ground would ride slower once opened up and this was probably the case. There was also a very strong tailwind in the home straight and Rock On Ruby really began to force the Champion Hurdle pace from the second hurdle with the pace at its strongest going up the hill in the back straight into the wind.

By the second last the pace was beginning to take its toll on all the participants and by my stopwatch Hurricane Fly was over two seconds slower from the last than the aforementioned Champagne Fever. Little wonder Hurricane Fly looked to be labouring at halfway but, in Ruby Walsh's opinion, ended up getting there too soon.

So to the ratings and the Champion, despite its midrace pace, looks a relatively easy race to assess. I have Hurricane Fly running to 173 and Rock On Ruby to 170, the figures they both gained when previously successful in the race.

As for the Supreme, this was the best renewal in a long time. I have used Jezki as my marker and have rated Champagne Fever 158. My Tent Or Yours travelled really well before jumping to the front for a stride or two at the last. He did not find as much as seemed likely so I have removed the 3lb I gave him for ease of victory in the Betfair Hurdle and have also dropped that race a pound, meaning his current rating is 158 also.

Friday's racing kicked off with the JCB Triumph Hurdle in which Our Conor's demolition of his rivals bordered on the astonishing, as did his jumping.

I have rated the race though the second horse Far West who is rated 145 and so have promoted the winner to 160. Our Conor apart, the impression is that the juveniles are a little weak this year, featuring a considerable number of French-breds who might not quite be at the top of the tree in their native land. The last Triumph winner to get close to that figure was Katchit who was rated 159 for his Triumph success in 2007 and went on to win the Champion as a five-year-old.

One bit of hype I won't be completely joining in with surrounding this race is the time, however. It didn't start raining at Cheltenham until half an hour before the Triumph and it only became torrential in the closing stages of the race. With the water table so high, the following County Hurdle was run in very different conditions. Anyone who views both races can verify this from the state of the jockey's silks.

SACRE'S SAUNTER

He raised the roofs of Cheltenham's jam-packed grandstands and lifted his mark to the highest ever achieved by a 2m chaser in the history of the Anglo-Irish Classifications, writes John de Moraville.

Until last Wednesday's bravura performance we had kept a lid on Sprinter Sacre's rating. Sure, he was stunningly impressive in both the Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler Chases, sauntering to victory with any amount in hand. But, on each occasion, second place was filled by a relatively humble handicapper.

Last week's Sportingbet Queen Mother Champion Chase was different. Though 4/1-on favourite to extend his unbeaten record to eight, the stunningly handsome seven-year-old was opposed by a former champion in Sizing Europe, who twelve months previously had only been dethroned in controversial circumstances.

Irish star Sizing Europe had won all his four races this season, running to a consistently high level of 171. Yet Sprinter Sacre blew him away by 19 lengths, establishing in the process a new high figure of 188 - and that's with plus signs attached as, on the run-in, the only muscles Barry Geraghty moved were in his neck (looking round for non-existent danger) and his right arm as he saluted the delirious crowds.

Sprinter Sacre's new mark eclipses by 2lb the 186 awarded to Master Minded following his unforgettable tour de force in the Champion Chase five years ago and the 180 achieved in 2005 by the great Moscow Flyer. And, hopefully, there will be plenty more excitements to come.

Such is the excellent record and sky-high reputation of Sprinter Sacre's stablemate Simonsig that victory by less than three lengths in last Tuesday's Arkle was regarded as somewhat underwhelming.

Figures here, though, do not tell half the story as the grey took an alarmingly fierce hold, his jumping was far from foot-perfect and his subsequent scope was reportedly ‘not quite right.'

Even so, performing to 162+ - a figure higher than most recent Arkle winners apart from Tidal Bay (166) and Sprinter Sacre (169) - he readily saw off the vastly improved Irish raider Baily Green (158), with hitherto unbeaten Overturn, for whom conditions were deemed too testing, a below-par fourth.

WHIT BYRNES BRIGHT

Solwhit, a somewhat forgotten horse, showed he is no back number by claiming the 2013 Ladbrokes World Hurdle, writes Martin Greenwood.

Almost exclusively campaigned around the minimum trip when a smart hurdler, though he did win the 2m4f Aintree Hurdle in 2009, Solwhit had shown he had retained quite a lot of ability in two graded mid-distance races around the turn of the year following nearly two years on the sidelines. That form however was a long way below what could be expected to feature at Cheltenham and on top of that he had to prove the required stamina.

In the event, this year's renewal didn't call for bundles of stamina due to a very steady pace after the field stood still when the tapes rose. The speedier types were thus handed the advantage and both Solwhit and runner-up Celestial Halo (held when hitting the last) ran more or less to their peak. My five-year median and average standards suggest 166 for the winner but with Smad Place replicating his effort in the 2012 version I have Solwhit performing to 164, 10lb below Big Buck's rating.

Oscar Whisky was very disappointing in the race for the second successive year, while his recent conqueror Reve de Sivola fared better by pugging on for fourth having been outpaced and none too fluent when it mattered. Given Reve de Sivola's boundless stamina, it was surprising that he was ridden in such a conservative manner.

One horse who could challenge for the 2014 World Hurdle is At Fishers Cross, though I imagine a chasing career may beckon. This horse has done nothing but progress throughout the season, and he didn't have to replicate his 152 rating (7lb and more clear of the field) to win the Albert Bartlett. He ran out a cosy winner from another pair of recent improvers in African Gold and Irish challenger Inish Island.

Again steadily run, this time on rain affected ground, At Fishers Cross travelled as well as any with the exception of African Gold (who didn't stay on as strongly up the hill) and pulled nearly five lengths clear at the line. Standards suggest a rating of in the low 150s and I have left At Fishers Cross on his pre-race rating, while African Gold is now 145 and could be one for Aintree.

At Fishers Cross narrowly beat The New One over 2m5f at Cheltenham's January meeting, and I was very positive about their Festival chances in my blog at the time. Thankfully for me, The New One also obliged in the Neptune Novices' on Wednesday.

I was slightly critical of the jockey last time in that he rode a speed horse very positively against a stayer, but Sam Twiston-Davies obviously learnt from that and bided his time for longer this time in another steadily run affair, which rather played into The New One's hands. Leading at the last he showed no signs of stopping and readily scooted up the hill.

The standards for this race over the last five years where pointing me to 147 for the winner, but I have taken a higher view this time and have increased The New One's rating from 152 to 155 which makes him the leading staying novice of the season, though that's not to say that At Fishers Cross hasn't got further improvement in him.

There is talk of The New One being aimed for the Champion Hurdle next year and his speed suggests that isn't necessarily tilting at windmills. The Neptune has been a good source of horses who have run well at the shorter trip in recent years.

Pont Alexandre looked at least as promising as The New One pre-Neptune but could only finish third, one place behind fellow Irish Challenger Rule The World (now 150). It would be unwise to write off Pont Alexandre - I was left with the impression that he will prove suited by a stiffer test at this sort of trip and will stay further. In my opinion he'll likely win a top race over hurdles before developing into a smart staying chaser.

Finally I must mention the two handicaps I dealt with. Both Medinas (up 6lb to 154 in the Coral Cup) and Holywell (up 12lb to 152 in the Pertemps, having tanked throughout and looked much better than his winning margin) were extremely good examples of horses who have risen considerably in the handicap without winning.

One of the most repeated complaints from connections is that horses go up too much without winning. Our logical point is, of course, that horses still improve without passing the post first. Medinas went up a total of 15lb for being second on two occasions before going on to win off 140 (Welsh Champion Hurdle) and then 148, while Holywell, who finished second on four successive occasions prior to the Pertemps, rose from 119 to 140.

Hopefully these examples will go some way to alleviating the concerns of owners and trainers with horses with similar profiles!

RIGHT ON CUE

The Grade 1 Ryanair Festival Chase run at Cheltenham on Thursday was an interesting race to handicap as there were a couple of different options I could have taken and fairly compelling reasons for both, writes Mark Olley.

The first was to base the race around For Non Stop (160) in third. This would mean First Lieutenant and Riverside Theatre had both run below their best, something which was going to happen whichever option I took. This option fit in nicely with the race standards which point towards a figure of 160/161 for the third horse, however, the drawback was that it produced a career-best effort for Champion Court back in fifth.

In the end I decided that I couldn't have Champion Court improving his rating of 155. He had finished second from this mark in a handicap at Ascot back in November and had failed to improve upon it when failing to stay in the King George and then when surprisingly beaten in a three runner graduation chase at Kempton in early February.

This meant that I had For Non Stop producing a performance figure of 158, which is second only to his runaway defeat of Wishfull Thinking in the Grade 2 Old Roan Handicap, and I have decided to leave his official rating unchanged on 160 for now.

First Lieutenant looked a big danger throughout the race, but his blunder three out came at a crucial time, and although he battled well to regain second he lacked the pace of Cue Card back over this shorter trip. Mouse Morris' gelding was an excellent third, from a mark of 159, in the Hennessy back in December and I had this performance a shade higher at 161, albeit some way off what he'd achieved when touched off in the Lexus.

All of the above means that I have Cue Card running to 170, calling the fourteen and a half lengths between Champion Court and Cue Card 15lb. This matches Riverside Theatre's record rating from last year and is 2lb higher than Albertas Run achieved in 2011 and 2010.

Cue Card doesn't seem to get the credit that his record over fences deserves. If you ignore his defeat over 3m in the King George, when he didn't stay, he has only been beaten by two horses in his completed runs. He failed by a short-head to concede 7lb to Bobs Worth in a novice chase at Newbury and ran Sprinter Sacre to seven lengths in the 2012 Arkle - both efforts which are looking more exceptional by the day!

Of the other races that I assessed at Cheltenham the one that stands out is the Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase and the reason for that is Ballynagour.

I had the dubious honour of assessing the Warwick handicap last month which Ballynagour turned into a procession and I don't think any horse I have handicapped to date has grabbed as many column inches or caused as much of a reaction as he did. I raised his rating 21lb for that Warwick win (he raced from 1lb out of the handicap at Warwick so was effectively 20lb higher at Cheltenham) and pretty much everything I subsequently read suggested he was a handicap ‘good thing' at Cheltenham.

I also fielded telephone calls from owners of defeated Warwick horses and members of the public, the polite ones suggesting that 20lb was not nearly enough.

So, as you may imagine, I was feeling a little nervous come Thursday afternoon and my nerves were not especially settled when one of my colleagues reminded me that the third horse from the Warwick race, Golden Chieftain, had run away with the JLT Specialty Handicap Chase on Tuesday.

The rest is history, but I suspect I may have had a lucky escape as the way Ballynagour went from travelling strongly to being beaten in a couple of strides makes me think that problems he had in France may have resurfaced.