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Thread: The thoughts of the handicappers.

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    2019 Dubai Future Champions Festival Handicappers Blog
    15 Oct 19


    Dewhurst success rounds off perfect campaign for Pinatubo

    It would have been a big ask for Pinatubo to repeat his National Stakes fireworks in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes, four weeks deeper into the autumn and under very different conditions, but the superstar two-year-old nevertheless signed off his first season with a perfect six wins from six, writes Graeme Smith

    It looked at one stage as though it might not happen for Pinatubo as an improved Arizona took the fight to him but the Godolphin colt looks a juvenile who has it all and the further he went the stronger he became, with the two-length margin by the time the line came being a decisive one.

    Soft conditions were an unknown for most of the field and some plainly didn’t fire. In a truly-run race the final time points towards a figure of 117 – using the Autumn Stakes as a guide – but other factors give some leeway and I’ve penciled Pinatubo’s performance in at 121 for the time being. That’s bang on the ten-year average for Dewhurst winners, though the five-year average would be a bit higher still. Pinatubo remains rated 128 on his blistering success over Armory and Arizona in the National Stakes, where his margin over the latter was more than seven lengths greater than on Saturday.

    He goes into winter quarters as a strong favourite for the 2000 Guineas on the back of possibly the best two-year-old career of the last twenty-five years. If he emerges as the same force it’s hard to see how he’ll be beaten back on the Rowley Mile in May, but that’s by no means guaranteed judged on the past record of the outstanding juvenile champions.

    Arizona had rather flatlined since looking a potential star himself when scraping home over what appeared a barely adequate 6f in the Coventry in June, but this was much more like it ridden positively on his second try at 7f. He’s clearly the best of the Ballydoyle juveniles on racecourse performance so far (improved from 108 to 117 on my figures in the Dewhurst) and is very much the type to thrive physically and fill his sizeable frame from two to three years.

    Historical standards and his beating of Wichita et al suggest the Dewhurst could be worth more than currently rated but I’m mindful that Arizona’s path to this performance hasn’t been altogether smooth. I also got the impression that Wichita (who ran to 111) possibly wasn’t quite the same horse on this softer ground as he’d been a fortnight earlier when winning a Group 3 over the same course and distance. I still have confidence in that 114 performance and he’s another who should do well over the winter.
    Pinatubo may be the flagbearer in Godolphin’s two-year-old team but there’s an array of talent spread around several of the operation’s trainers and both Victor Ludorum (covered later in this piece) and Military March hammered the point home last week.

    Military March – probably alongside Arizona – is about as physically imposing as any horse that has set foot on the Rowley Mile this autumn. He proved he has the engine to match his bodywork when getting the better of a nip-and-tuck duel with Charlie Appleby’s Al Suhail, the pair some seven lengths clear of the remaining six runners in the Dubai Autumn Stakes. Military March had only a third of the racecourse experience the runner-up brought to the race, having won his sole previous start back in the summer, so this battling 113 performance augurs well for his prospects of emulating both his sire and dam by providing top-level success for his ownership group over middle-distances in the future. In the meantime, he’d be a very realistic contender if taking up his entry in the Vertem Futurity Trophy on Saturday week.

    Incidentally, the first three from the Autumn Stakes in 2018 went on the win the French Guineas, Newmarket Guineas and St James’s Palace respectively. The time of this year’s renewal judged against the nursery would have endorsed a view 1 lb higher than I took but the presence of the consistent maiden Ropey Guest in third rather tempered that.

    The 1m2f Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes was the third pattern race for two-year-olds on Saturday’s card. It’s never an easy contest to level with the entire field stepping up so markedly in trip, and this year a pace that took time to gather momentum made time analysis that bit harder. Recent renewals at listed level have thrown up the top-level winners Wings of Eagles, Kew Gardens and Coronet, so this upgraded Group 3 contest is well worth keeping an eye on. For now, I have the strong-staying Max Vega improving to a mark of 107 for his three-length defeat of Miss Yoda (99), having been guided largely by race standards, but we’ll get a firmer idea as the form is tested.


    The emphasis of Friday’s Newmarket card was on fillies and Quadrilateral bolstered her growing reputation with a hard-fought success in the Bet365 Fillies’ Mile. This looks a race to view positively with the efforts of a couple of previously unbeaten fillies being supported by some strong form lines courtesy of the Moyglare winner Love, Flame of Tara scorer Cayenne Pepper and Boomer, whose Prestige success is looking stronger by the week.
    Quadrilateral (113 from 103) strengthened her position as ante-post favourite for the 1000 Guineas but I don’t think it’s a done deal that she’ll confirm superiority over runner-up Powerful Breeze over the same Rowley Mile next spring. While acknowledging inexperience could have been a factor with both fillies having just their third race, Powerful Breeze looked the speedier of the pair by some way as she quickened into what looked like a winning advantage. Quadrilateral had been at work for quite some time before making meaningful inroads from the Dip, and in a race that finished in negative closing sectionals it was almost certainly stamina that won the day this time.

    While there was undoubted depth to the Fillies’ Mile, a finish rather more condensed than is often the case leaves Quadrilateral no higher than the median of recent winning figures on 113 – the same level as Iridessa and Laurens from the last two years and 2 b shy of the 115 currently published in Ireland for the Cheveley Park winner, Millisle.

    The Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp Stakes was weakened by the below-par showings of Final Song and Stylistique and a blanket finish among the first four suggests the race is some way short of the level the best fillies set. Nevertheless, Rose of Kildare is an admirable filly and she defied a 3lb-penalty for her win in the Firth of Clyde at Ayr, breaking through the 100 barrier on her twelfth career start and emerging with a rating of 103.
    Longchamp staged its traditional Group 1 races for two-year-olds on Arc day and Albigna reaffirmed the strength in depth among Jessica Harrington’s fillies as she ran out a decisive two and a half length winner of a well-run Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac. This was much more like the performance she’d promised when winning the Airlie Stakes over what appeared an inadequate 6f back in June, having reportedly been in season when only sixth in the Moyglare in between. Longer trips next year should be well up her street. Albigna is now published at 114 in Ireland, and while all these figures will be finalised at a European level at the end of the year, that’s exactly where I’d currently have her. Incidentally, the runner-up Marieta did plenty on the sectionals under a positive ride and could well have an even smarter performance in her.

    The Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere proved anything but well run, with on-course sectionals showing the field reached the last 2f 5.2 seconds – or 26 lengths – slower than the fillies’ race. A sprint and well-bunched finish ensued and Godolphin’s Andre Fabre-trained Victor Ludorum did well to run down some more prominently ridden rivals without needing maximum pressure. I built an extra length into my assessment and have him around 113 at the minute, but I’m confident there’s a better performance in him when the situation allows.

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    The last flat one of the year...

    QIPCO British Champions Day – Handicappers Blog
    22 Oct 19

    King reigns in QEII

    As with most of the races run on Saturday, due to ground conditions the two races that fell within my compass needed careful analysis before deciding on the level and revised figures, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill

    The easier of the two was probably King of Change’s success in the QEII Stakes. To give French handicapper Eric le Guen his due, he failed to get caught up in the hype surrounding The Revenant’s win on Arc weekend and published him at 117 after that success – and the evidence from Saturday suggests he was correct in doing so.

    Whilst third placed Safe Voyage went into the race rated 113, the mud-loving six-year-old could easily have run to 114 when defeating Suedois by nearly two lengths under similar conditions in the John of Gaunt at Haydock in June. If he is taken to have reproduced that effort here then The Revenant has repeated his French figure of 117. Given this was the twenty-third start of Safe Voyage’s career, I am reluctant to go any higher until any subsequent evidence suggests the level is too low.

    This line of thinking results in the relatively unexposed (just sixth career start) King of Change improving from his pre-race mark of 115 to 120, whilst Veracious (fourth, pre-race 113) and Mohaather (fifth, 114) both look to have been a little below their best at 108 and 110 respectively. Veracious set a decent gallop in the conditions and paid the price late on, whilst Mohaather was having his first run since winning the Greenham in April.

    A couple of other points probably worth mentioning from the QEII. Although conditions were undoubtedly testing down the straight mile, the time of 1:44.88 was a good bit quicker than those posted under similar conditions by other recent winners Persuasive (1:46.13 in 2017) and Charm Spirit (1:46.28 in 2014). King of Change’s success hopefully dismisses the theory that the three horses who raced up the stands rail in the 2000 Guineas had a track advantage. Whilst winner Magna Grecia has obviously had his issues since, both King of Change (second) and Shine So Bright (sixth) have proved their worth subsequently.


    The Qipco Champion Stakes is not quite so easy to assess in my view. It was wonderful to see Magical notch another Group 1 success but she was below her best of 122 in winning the Irish Champion Stakes, was a good way off her best in the Arc and I suspect she was probably below 122 again in winning on Saturday.

    Addeybb will have relished the underfoot conditions but has never been higher than 117 previously and was rated 114 pre-race. His success in the Wolferton Stakes at the Royal meeting is working out well, however, and in running Magical to three quarters of a length giving her 3 lb, I think he can be credited with a career best here. I don’t think he should as high as Elarqam (120) who turned around the Wolferton form with some authority at York in July and subsequently went on to finish third in the International, so I have pitched Addeybb in at a figure of 119.

    This has Magical running to 118 (4lb below her best) and third placed Deirdre (pre-race 116) also 4 lb below her best at 112 – probably no great surprise given connections concerns about the ground pre-race. This leaves the relatively unexposed Fox Tal (fourth, sixth career start) stepping up on his comfortable reappearance win at Doncaster to a new mark of 115 (from 110) – a good effort given how keen he was early.

    Conditions key to Donjuan triumph

    This year’s renewal of the 6f Group 1 Qipco British Champions Sprint certainly lived up to its name with the last three winners – Sands of Mali, Librisa Breeze and The Tin Man respectively – all taking part. Add in to the mix another three Group 1 winners this season in the shape of One Master, Hello Youmzain and Advertise, and it was arguably one of the strongest fields to contest the race since its inception, writes Stewart Copeland

    However, none of them were to prevail and the race produced something of a shock result with the admirable six-year-old Donjuan Triumphant registering his first Group 1 success. Having run with great credit in some of the top sprints these past few seasons, it was a well-deserved victory on what was his last racecourse appearance before he heads off to stud.


    What counted strongly in his favour was the prevailing testing conditions, and the searching test the race provided. A proven mudlark with the stamina for 7f, that asset came to the fore late on when he outstayed favourite One Master close home – both overcoming a troubled passage inside the last 2f – to prevail by a length. The latter was another proven over 7f having won the Group 1 Foret at Longchamp over that trip on her previous start.

    In analysing the race the whole complexion of it changed markedly as the pace collapsed over 1f out – led by the free running Hello Youmzain – and those held up off it dominated the finish. At this stage its worth highlighting the run of the hugely progressive four-year-old gelding Make A Challenge, who has made tremendous strides up the sprinting ranks of late in Ireland. He travelled notably strongly up with the pace and fared best of those who raced prominently throughout. This performance promises more to come and he remains an exciting prospect for next year.

    As for rating the race, the average winner of the Champions Sprint is in the region of 118, and the historical standard for the race suggests that, too. This view ties in well with the third horse home, the three-year-old filly Forever in Dreams, running to the same level of 112 she did at the track when runner-up in the Commonwealth Cup at the Royal meeting. That therefore means a career-high rating of 118 for Donjuan Triumphant, and the phrase ‘saving the best for last’ seems most apt to describe his win.

    The result meant not a huge amount changed at the top of the 6f division in Europe. The pick of the performances remains Ten Sovereigns 122-rated win from Advertise in the July Cup, with Advertise next best at 119. The latter wasn’t at his best on Saturday tackling his softest conditions to date, but at least from a rating perspective his Commonwealth Cup victory was franked by the performance of Forever in Dreams.

    Kew Gardens blooms in Long Distance Cup

    By a nose, Kew Gardens brought the ten-race winning run of Stradivarius to an end in the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup, writes Matthew Tester


    On ratings before the race the pair were comfortably clear of the remaining seven runners, with Kew Gardens published at 118 in Ireland and Stradivarius at 121 in Britain. Kew Gardens had been rated 120 after winning the St Leger last year but this was his first win since. Racing over 2m for the first time – or 15.6f to be precise – he saw the trip out really well and battled back once headed by Stradivarius.

    The temptation, since Kew Gardens beat Stradivarius at his first attempt, was to think that he is the better horse. But all the other evidence points to Stradivarius not having quite run up to his best on the day. The third horse, Royal Line, was five lengths behind them and was only rated 111 beforehand. He was having only his third run of the year, however, and was stepping up in trip by over three furlongs, so an improved showing wasn’t unwarranted. The fourth, Mekong, was even lower at 108 pre-race, but he did have some higher-rated horses behind him here.

    The jockey of Stradivarius was inclined to blame the ground afterwards. That was a surprise since he had won this race in 2018 on even softer ground (albeit without having to run near his best), and his Gold Cup win earlier this year came on ground which was described as soft, good to soft in places. It seems plausible that this race simply comes too late in the year for a horse who was made ready to win in May of both the last two years. Keeping him at an absolute peak all the way through to the second half of October is very tough to achieve.

    Either way, we are expecting both Kew Gardens and Stradivarius to stay in training next year. A season of Cup clashes between the two will be exciting and entertaining. Stradivarius has started at even money or less in all but one of his eleven races over the last two years and the added strength in depth to the staying division can only be good news.

    My international colleagues have initially taken a slightly lower view of this race. I have written to them with my reasons for being more bullish but the final figures will only be agreed at the World Thoroughbred Rankings conference in December.

    Star Catcher edges Fillies & Mares thriller

    The Group 1 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, run over 11.5f, is open to three year olds and upwards, however, ten of the twelve runners were from the Classic generation, writes Mark Olley

    With the 122 rated Magical preferring to tackle the Qipco Champion Stakes (undoubtedly the correct decision as she won) the only two four-year-olds in the field were both rated 106 and, without being disrespectful, that is some way short of Group 1 class. However, we had the cream of the three-year-old fillies, including Oaks winner Anapurna and Irish Oaks winner Star Catcher, and they combined to serve up a thrilling race.

    It was a truly-run race and every bit as exciting a finish as the preceding Qipco Long Distance Cup. Delphinia, runner-up to Anapurna in the Group 1 Prix Royallieu at Longchamp over 1m6f earlier this month, made good use of her stamina by setting a strong pace and she was only denied by Star Catcher by the narrowest of margins.

    Star Catcher missed the Oaks earlier this season but has gained ample compensation since, with this success adding to her wins in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, the Irish Oaks and the Prix Vermeille.

    Star Catcher and Delphinia arrived with pre-race ratings of 114 and 113 respectively, and with so little between them on the day those figures remain unchanged. That is around 2 to 3 lb below the historical standard for this race and that is partly explained by one of the aforementioned four-year-olds, Sun Maiden, finishing just a length back in third. This was a clear career best from Sun Maiden on the softest ground she has encountered and her new rating is 111 (up 5 lbs).

    Fleeting also warrants a mention as she had no luck in running up the straight, with a gap closing on the inner at a crucial time, and she finished an unlucky-looking fourth. She has failed to win this season but has danced every dance, finishing in the frame in the Oaks, Ribblesdale, Irish Oaks and Prix L’Opera among other creditable runs.

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Templepark + 8

    White Moon + 5

    Stoney Mountain + 4

    Forest Bihan + 4 for winning a bumper

    Mason Jar + 12

    Doctor Dex + 8

    Gumball +8

    Vinndication + 9

    Midnight Midge + 10

    La Cavsa Nostra + 10

    Truckers Lodge -1

    Diego Du Charmil +6lb (Capeland stays unchanged)
    Last edited by Diamond Geezer; 5th November 2019 at 8:56 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    Templepark + 8

    White Moon + 5

    Stoney Mountain + 4

    Forest Bihan + 4 for winning a bumper

    Mason Jar + 12

    Doctor Dex + 8

    Gumball +8

    Vinndication + 9

    Midnight Midge + 10

    La Cavsa Nostra + 10

    Truckers Lodge -1

    Diego Du Charmil +6lb (Capeland stays unchanged)
    Capeland straight into the tracker if unchanged

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Champagne Mystery +15

    Riders On The Storm +10

    Misty Bloom +11

    Give Me A Copper +6

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    Senior Member Double Handful's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
    Champagne Mystery +15

    Riders On The Storm +10

    Misty Bloom +11

    Give Me A Copper +6
    Janika ran on 5th November last Tuesday and won readily off 162 carrying top weight.
    The thoughts at the time from all commentators, pundits and twitterati alike was that he was going to be at least a 165+ horse now.
    @Diamond Geezer - Has he been left on 162? (Expected to see him put up at least a few lbs in today's updated ratings.)

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Double Handful View Post
    Janika ran on 5th November last Tuesday and won readily off 162 carrying top weight.
    The thoughts at the time from all commentators, pundits and twitterati alike was that he was going to be at least a 165+ horse now.
    @Diamond Geezer - Has he been left on 162? (Expected to see him put up at least a few lbs in today's updated ratings.)
    +4 to 166

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    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    Technically not handicapping but good weekend review of the racing over here

    https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...dier-on/174206
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    Windsor Avenue + 15 = 153

    Slate House + 6 = 153

    West Approach + 8 = 150

    Happy Diva + 6 = 149

    Thyne Hill 147 new rating

    Jatiluwih + 9 = 146

    Simply The Betts + 5 = 140

  13. #590
    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    Going up 6lbs for falling seems a bit harsh.

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    He's making the assumption that Slate House was going equally as well as Happy Diva when he fell which is true. To give him the same 6lbs though you'd have to believe that he thought that Slate House was the more likely winner.

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    Senior Member simmo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    He's making the assumption that Slate House was going equally as well as Happy Diva when he fell which is true. To give him the same 6lbs though you'd have to believe that he thought that Slate House was the more likely winner.
    Get that but I wouldn't be a fan of making that assumption. To me it's just as likely that he emptied up the hill.

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    I'm with you Simmo, just saying that'll be his rationale. My own view would be 3-4lbs max. Nobody I know who watched the race has said they felt confident that Slate House would have won so I don't think the handicapper should make that judgement either.

    Out of interest does anyone know what he did with Belami des Pictons?

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    -1 = 145

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    Thanks Rog. In which case he remains a remarkably well handicapped horse.

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    Super Moderator Diamond Geezer's Avatar
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    NTF produced a stat today showing he is 5/6 between December and March (0/3 in November)

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    One seriously well handicapped horse. Can't wait for The Caspian Caviar entries.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tiggers1972 View Post
    One seriously well handicapped horse. Can't wait for The Caspian Caviar entries.
    Exactly. Lump job.

  22. #599
    Senior Member granger's Avatar
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    https://www.timeform.com/horse-racin...ms_top_chasers

    Chacun Pour Soi is rated very very high given his lack of open company racing

    Not a vintage era of hurdlers at all
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maruco View Post
    Exactly. Lump job.
    Not entered for the Caspian Caviar

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