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Thread: The thoughts of the handicappers.

  1. #561
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    Shall do GG thanks for the updates. I've taken Munro to my heart and will be following him through thick and thin over what hopefully will be a long and enjoyable career.
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Danny View Post
    Shall do GG thanks for the updates. I've taken Munro to my heart and will be following him through thick and thin over what hopefully will be a long and enjoyable career.
    Thanks Danny - seriously worried about the ground - think they have entered for the sake of getting a run before the 'season' is over. If the rain doesn't come, hope they pull him.
    His 'lickle' brother goes off to be backed on Sunday- not sure how he's going to handle being separated from his mates and his 'nanny'. I know already I am going to cry when I have to leave him, Miss Pathetic here
    Vote Alfie!!!!

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    Well he's okay which is the main thing, but have to say I can't help but be disappointed. More rain would have helped but he started hanging his head 4 hurdles out, and think it might have helped if he had been tucked in for longer and not come round what was the outside and waited for longer in the straight. From 3 hurdles out I was screaming at the screen ' wait Billy, wait'. Ground not his preference despite the change in going, first time right handed....... really think they should get rid of the hood, it just seems to annoy him before the start and not help during the race. I know I shouldn't be down but ....... he jumped much better which was a huge plus to come out of it and he is fine. Off on his summer hols now. Sorry if anyone backed him.
    Vote Alfie!!!!

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    Just watched the replay, for what its worth GG I haven't seen the figures for the race but it looked like they went and honest enough gallop and he still looked very keen I'd still be inclined to think he wants dropping back in trip I'm sure if he ran back at 2 miles but got a strong gallop to help him settle he'd probably win another race or two. Tbh I wouldn't be downhearted with that performance the front 3 have pulled miles clear so he's a proper little horse and hopefully we can have some right fun following his adventures next season
    Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.

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    Kemboy tops 2018/19 Anglo-Irish Jumps Classification
    23 May 2019 BHA Features Racing/Fixtures

    2019 Coral Punchestown Gold Cup winner Kemboy has been announced as the highest-rated Jumps horse of the 2018/19 season at the annual Anglo-Irish Jump Classifications press conference today, hosted at Sandown Park by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) and Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board (IHRB).

    Kemboy’s two-length defeat of Al Boum Photo (175) at Punchestown earned him a rating of 177, the highest awarded since Don Cossack in the 2015-16 season.
    Dual Champion Chase hero Altior (175) gained top honours in the two-mile division after another dominant campaign over fences, whilst Cyrname’s win in the Betfair Ascot Chase in February (176) making him the top-rated chaser over two-and-a-half miles.

    Another impressive Punchestown winner topped the novice chasers in the shape of Chacun Pour Soi (167), with JLT Novices’ Chase winner Defi du Seuil (162) and Paul Nicholls’ Topofthegame (164) leading the intermediate and staying divisions respectively.

    Espoir d’Allen’s Unibet Champion Hurdle victory earned him a rating of 170, a pound clear of leading staying hurdler Paisley Park (169) with Apple’s Jade (163) on top at intermediate distances.
    Victories at Cheltenham for Klassical Dream (160), City Island (153) and Minella Indo (153) saw them top the respective classifications for novice and juvenile hurdlers, with the progressive Pentland Hills (153) ending the season as the top rated four-year-old.

    Martin Greenwood, Steeplechase Team Leader, said:
    “Kemboy at 177 is the highest rated chaser in 2018/19 following his defeat of Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo (175) in the Coral Punchestown Gold Cup. Both horses are only seven years of age and there is no reason why they both can’t continue to improve.

    Tiger Roll (172) is the third highest Chaser in the staying division and is immortalised in the history books following his superb second consecutive Randox Health Grand National victory.
    “A strong staying novice division was headed by Topfothegame (164), who beat Santini and Delta Work (both 163) in the RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham, with Aintree scorer Lostintranslation (161) not far behind. This quartet all look capable of making their mark in the top staying events next season.”

    Michael Harris, steeplechase handicapper, said:
    “For the second year in succession the champion in the 2-and-a-half-mile division has earnt their rating in winning the Betfair Ascot Chase. Cyrname (176) produced a scintillating display with one of the most dominant Grade 1 performances in recent years on his final run of the season in February. He is the highest rated horse in Britain and is set to be aimed at the King George next season in what could prove a vintage renewal.

    “In the novice division, Defi du Seuil (162) led a strong crop with A Plus Tard (161) both achieving a rating higher than last season’s champion Al Boum Photo (159). He clearly left that form behind this year and there would be no reason to think this year’s novices have reached their peak yet either.”

    Chris Nash, steeplechase handicapper, said:“Champion Chase winner Altior led the two-mile chase division after his fourth successive unbeaten season over obstacles. His rating of 175 matches what he achieved last season and his victory in the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown in December was arguably his most solid piece of form. He is likely to be stepped up in distance next year and it will be fascinating to see what he can achieve.

    “The two-mile novice chase division saw its champion crowned very late in the season when Chacun Pour Soi beat four previous Grade 1 novice chase winners (including the afore mentioned Defi du Seuil) in winning the Ryanair Chase at Punchestown. His figure of 167 has him as the leading novice chaser of the season. He’s only had seven career starts so far and just three over fences so he has plenty of room to progress next season.

    “If Altior does step up in distance Chacun Pour Soi may well become the horse to beat in the top-level two-mile chases.”

    Andrew Mealor, Hurdle Team Leader, said:“Paisley Park went unbeaten in five runs in the 2018/19 season and was clearly the dominant force in the staying division. He ends the year on a rating of 169 on the back of two top-class performances at Cheltenham, a wide-margin success in the Cleeve Hurdle followed by a clear-cut win over Sam Spinner (164) and Faugheen (160) in the Stayers’ Hurdle.

    Although a few lbs shy of the likes of Big Buck’s and Thistlecrack (both 174) as things stand, he has plenty of time on his side as a 7yo and may yet have a bigger performance in him.
    “The winners of the two staying novice events at Cheltenham, City Island and Minella Indo (both 153), both topped their respective novice divisions, and they along with fellow novice Champ (153) and Aintree winner If The Cap Fits (160) will hopefully provide some new opposition to Paisley Park in the 2019/20 season.”

    David Dickinson, hurdle handicapper, said:
    “The 2019 Unibet Champion Hurdle produced a surprise, wide margin winner in the five year old Espoir d’Allen. That none of the market leaders ran to their best makes any figure for the winner the subject of some conjecture and in rating him 170, through the handicap form of Silver Streak, it puts him midway between the highest 176 and lowest 164 of Champion Hurdle winners in the history of the Classifications.

    “Buveur d’Air fell that day but he started his season impressively beating Samcro in Newcastle’s Betvictor Fighting Fifth and this performance is rated the equal of his best ever two mile hurdle run on 167. The novices Klassical Dream 160, Getaway Trump 155, and Pentland Hills 153 could all develop into worthy opponents for the established Champion contenders next season.”

  8. #566
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    Congrats Perpetual and Archie, how amazing to be part owners of the highest rated horse in several years. Fingers crossed he can keep going and give you another fabulous season next year.

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  10. #567
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    How does the handicapper look at next years national?

    Lump Tiger Roll accordingly or give him a chance of history
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Based on the last few years, I think he'll be given a chance at the weights

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    Quote Originally Posted by Perpetual View Post
    Based on the last few years, I think he'll be given a chance at the weights
    I do too - He will be the story of the season
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

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    Surely he has to have top weight regardless of what else runs.

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    I'm sure he will, but currently only Kemboy and Al Boum Photo are rated higher and cant see either of them running

    The biggest blocker is probably O'Leary, but think he'll have to let him take a chance if fit and well

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    Investec Derby Festival 2019 | Handicappers Blog
    04 Jun 19
    Seventh heaven for O’Brien

    Mark Olley breaks down the Group 1 action from Epsom, starting with a record-equalling seventh Derby success for Aidan O’Brien courtesy of Anthony Van Dyck…

    The 2019 Investec Derby had an incredibly open look to it pre-race, both on official ratings where just 5 lbs separated the top six contenders, and in the betting where Sir Dragonet was sent off the 11/4 favourite. This resulted in a thrilling race where just 0.6 of a length separated the first five home.

    Anthony Van Dyck was rated 118 as a two-year-old, when successful at Group 2 level and placed twice in Group 1 races (second in the National Stakes and third in the Dewhurst). Having run seven times as a juvenile, including a trip to America for the Breeders’ Cup, he was nothing if not battle hardened and this toughness stood him in good stead on Saturday where he came up against some less experienced rivals. The sectional times for the Derby suggest he used his energy in an optimum manner and in rating his winning performance at 118 I believe he didn’t need to improve upon his two-year-old form.

    To put that figure into context, Wings Of Eagles (2017) and Ruler Of The World (2013) were rated 119 when coming out on top in similarly tight finishes and they were previously the lowest performances in the Derby this century.

    Madhmoon had finished fourth in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket last month and it could be argued that he was a slightly unlucky loser at Epsom. Towards the rear when stumbling slightly coming round Tattenham Corner, that seemed to galvanise him into action (made a sweeping move) and he ran the fastest two furlongs of any horse at any stage of the race. He clearly didn’t expend his energy as evenly through the race as Anthony Van Dyck and that may ultimately have been the difference. He emerges with a rating of 117, the same as Japan, Broome and Sir Dragonet who all finished upsides.

    As the first six home are all trained in Ireland the job of publishing official ratings fall to my Irish colleague Garry O’Gorman and he has confirmed the above figures.

    The previous afternoon’s Investec Oaks was won by Anapurna who, like Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck, had won her trial at Lingfield and completed a notable classic double for the Surrey venue.

    Comparisons with Anthony Van Dyck don’t stop there as sectional times for the Oaks suggest she also ran an optimal race. She is clearly a fast improving filly and her new rating of 113 matches the five-year race standard. Was and Casual Look were also rated 113 when winning in 2012 and 2003 respectively.

    There were interesting aspects to the performances of several of the beaten horses. Runner-up Pink Dogwood ran an exceptionally fast furlong split with three furlongs to run. It took her into the lead but she couldn’t quite hold off Anapurna late on, the latter having run a more evenly paced race.

    Fleeting found herself a long way off the lead and like Pink Dogwood really accelerated with three furlongs to run. She ran the fastest final furlong but the front two were just beyond her reach. Both of these Aidan O’Brien-trained fillies clearly have abundant talent and I would be surprised if they don’t win major races.

    Another filly worth mentioning is Mehdaayih who was supplemented for the race after running away with the Listed Cheshire Oaks. She endured a nightmare run up the straight, notably when hampered over a furlong out, and must be given another chance.
    The Investec Coronation Cup was also run on Friday and Defoe gained a deserved first Group 1 success. Salouen, who went so close to beating Cracksman in this race last year, and Communique pestered each other for the lead and this set things up for the more conservatively ridden pair of Defoe and Kew Gardens. Kew Gardens (120) won last year’s St Leger over 14f and when he hit the front entering the final furlong I didn’t expect to see him outstayed, but Defoe had gone an even pace throughout and that meant he finished best of all. His new rating of 118 is a career best.

    Kew Garden’s rating comes from his St Leger win and his efforts around a mile and a half are more in line with the 117 I have him performing to here.

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    2019 Royal Ascot Handicappers Blog
    25 Jun 19


    Blue is King once more

    In landing both Group 1 sprints at Royal Ascot Blue Point bookended the 2019 Royal Meeting with two stellar performances. Stewart Copeland expands on his win in the Diamond Jubilee inthe next section, but firstly 5f handicapper Chris Nash assesses what he achieved in the King’s Stand…

    The only 5f race open to older horses at the Royal meeting is the Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes. The first three from the 2018 renewal returned to do battle and they all but produced the same result. In 2018 Blue Point beat Battaash by one and three quarter lengths with a further neck back to Mabs Cross in third. This time around Blue Point again took the prize but on this occasion there was one and a quarter lengths back to Battaash in second, with a further one and a half lengths to Soldier’s Call in third. Mabs Cross was just a nose behind him in fourth.

    The last ten winners of this race range from 113 to 125 (the stunning effort of Lady Aurelia in 2017 with her fillies allowance added back in) and the average winner comes out at 118. Applying race standards to the 2019 renewal suggests a figure between 117 and 119 for Blue Point. However, I’m happy to be plenty above that range as those figures are held back by a couple of moderate renewals in 2015 and 2016 where the winners (Goldream and Profitable) only recorded figures of 113. I’m sure that we are in a far better age of 5f sprinting at the minute.

    I decided to rate Blue Point 123 which equates to a career best. This has Battaash running to 119, Soldier’s Call running to 114 (which matches his previous career best) and Mabs Cross running to 111 (a few pounds below her very best).

    Blue Point went into the King’s Stand rated 120, 3 lb behind the 123-rated Battaash. However, given that Blue Point has now come out on top the last three times that they have met, that differential can no longer be supported. Some people might suggest that I’m slightly sitting on the fence in rating them both 123 after this race but I can’t pick the one that is the best. Battaash can be electric on his day and he looks best over a sharp 5f – if the pair met at (say) Goodwood I’d want him on my side. Stage the race at Ascot over a stiffer 5f and Blue Point would definitely appear to hold the aces.

    Blue proves the point with rare double
    When the phrase ‘go out on a high note’ was coined I’m not sure horse racing figured highly in the thinking but it could hardly be more apt for the career of Blue Point, writes Stewart Copeland. As I write this, news has broken that Blue Point has been retired, and he leaves the sport with many great memories for us all, not least his historic double at Royal Ascot last week.

    As I tweeted last week he became the first horse since Choisir in 2003 to land the King’s Stand and Diamond Jubilee double. – and his was arguably an even more notable achievement given the King’s Stand was a Group 2 back then. It’s hard to imagine any other horse winning two Group 1 races at the same track in the same week, but I’ll leave that research to the historians out there!

    What I can say for certain is that Blue Point retires with four Group 1 wins on his record, including a hat-trick of successes on his last three starts. Arguably the pick of them is his performance in this year’s King’s Stand, as outlined above. The figure of 123 allocated to him for that win ranks him right up there with some of the best British-trained sprinters we’ve seen this millennium. Only Oasis Dream and Harry Angel, both on 125, have rated higher. Let’s hope this splendid racehorse has a long and productive retirement.

    As for his performance in the Diamond Jubilee I have credited him with a performance rating of 120+. In analysing the race the early fractions were strong set by Kachy, and studying the sectionals, Blue Point arguably deserves extra credit for racing closest to the aforementioned trailblazer over a test which stretches his stamina to the limit. His performance in the King’s Stand already tells us that is merited. I wrote a good while back in this blog how sectionals would aid anyone in breaking down what happens in an individual race, and the information kindly supplied again by Longines at Royal Ascot proved an invaluable help.

    To highlight this let’s look at the Wokingham alongside the Diamond Jubilee. When assessing the overall time and weights carried, the races produce an identical speed rating. However the races could hardly have been run more differently. Kachy covered the first 3f in 35.69 seconds, as opposed to Watchable (who set the strongest pace in the Wokingham) in 36.85. That’s a difference of 1.16s, or in simple terms Kachy was in the region of around 7 lengths quicker to the 3f pole than Watchable. Some difference!

    No surprise then that the principals in the Diamond Jubilee finished notably slower than Cape Byron, winner of the Wokingham. He covered the last 2f in 23.89 seconds compared to Blue Point’s 24.46, which equates to around 3.5 lengths. In summary the gallop in the Wokingham was more even paced throughout, whereas the Diamond Jubilee was run at a frenetic early pace and the majority of the principals slowed notably towards the finish. The main exception was the runner-up Dream of Dreams, and that is simply explained by the fact that he came from off the pace, conserving more energy than the leaders in the early stages of the race.

    The growing use of sectionals gives a fascinating insight into how the pace of a race has an impact on each individual in it, and the above just gives a brief insight into how they can shed more light on a race than just the overall time. Much more so in the end.

    Back to the Diamond Jubilee. The standards for a Group 1 sprint in Britain point to figures in the region of 120/119 respectively for Blue Point and Dream of Dreams, a level which I’ve settled on at present. That represents a clear career-best for the latter who has always promised more and is now delivering. To put that performance into context, it is the highest rating allocated to the runner-up of a 6f Group 1 sprint in Britain since Choisir ran to 121 in the 2003 July Cup.

    It would be remiss not to mention Kachy again, also. He did remarkably well to keep on for third given the early fractions he set, and a figure of 112 is as good as he’s run on turf. Arguably you could make a strong case for upgrading his performance based on sectional analysis, and there’s every chance he may well reproduce his all-weather rating of 115 on turf when speed is at a premium over 6f.

    However, the older sprinters should face some serious competition in the July Cup in the shape of the three-year-old Advertise, the impressive winner of the 6f Group 1 Commonwealth Cup twenty-four hours earlier.

    The race attracted the smallest field in its short history to date. However what it lacked in quantity it made up for in quality, with Ten Sovereigns and Jash, the first two home in the Middle Park, and Advertise, runner-up in the Dewhurst, all representing top class juvenile form.

    Advertise soon put behind him a disappointing run in the 2000 Guineas with a clear cut length and a half win from the Irish challenger Forever in Dreams, with Hello Youmzain a further head behind in third.

    Beforehand Advertise was rated 119 based on his Dewhurst second, and Hello Youmzain 114. Their performances here mirror that relationship perfectly. It also ties in well with the standard of 118/119 for the Commonwealth Cup, and given the race was run at a solid pace throughout and is backed up by an excellent time, it looks a fairly straightforward race to make sense of. Advertise and Dream of Dreams both look set for the July Cup, and it promises to be an exciting clash of the generations with little to choose between the main contenders.

    Crystal Dazzles

    From a ratings perspective the performance of not only the week but the season to date, was Crystal Ocean’s success in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes on Wednesday, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill…

    Runner-up Magical ended 2018 with a mark of 122 and nothing she had done in notching three straight wins this year prior to Ascot suggested that level was incorrect. In beating her fair and square I have Crystal Ocean running to 127, with French challenger Waldgeist 3 lb below his best at 119 in third – that no great surprise given that he has yet to reproduce his domestic level in five starts outside of France. The only slight question mark over the form is the relative closeness of the front-running Hunting Horn in fourth – he has never previously been higher than 114 but appears to have run to 115 on this occasion. From a historical perspective the winning performance is at the top end – bettering Poet’s Word last year by a pound and being the highest rated in the last eight runnings.

    Staying with the older horses, two old favourites fought out the finish of the Queen Anne on the opening day. Lord Glitters and Beat The Bank have no secrets from us from a handicapping perspective and I have them performing to 117 and 116, pretty much in line with their previous levels. That suggests One Master (third) was 1 lb below her best and Romanised (fourth) pretty much reproduced his 113 performance from the Lockinge.

    The two feature races for three-year-olds over a mile were slightly less easy to rate with confidence.

    As far as the St James’s Palace is concerned, I have Circus Maximus returning a figure of 117. Currently that would have his performance 1 lb superior to that of Without Parole in the race last year but inferior to other recent winners Barney Roy (119), Galileo Gold (121), Gleneagles (118) and Kingman (126) – the level is subject to change going forward, however, as it is impossible to know with total confidence how good the three-year-olds are until they start pitching themselves against the older horses.

    As far as last year’s champion juvenile Too Darn Hot is concerned, it now looks unlikely that he will return to the levels he showed then (126) – his three starts so far this year have all been in the mid-teens range and he is now published at the mark of 115 that I have him running to in the St James’s Palace.

    The fillies equivalent of the St James’s Palace, the Coronation Stakes, threw up a 20-1 winner in French challenger Watch Me who, having had no luck in running in the Pouliches, looked a top-class filly here. She travelled well throughout and there was no obvious fluke about her defeat of Hermosa. I have her running to 116, a figure bettered only by Alpha Centauri (122 last year) and Winter (118 in 2017) in the race in recent years – it will be interesting to see how she fares should she take on the colts later in the season.

    Batman reborn

    A second Gold Cup success for Stradivarius invoked memories of a favourite childhood superhero for Matthew Tester

    On TV when I was young, Batman was always getting into jeopardy; but there was always something in his utility belt that would get him out of trouble. A can of shark repelling spray was one memorable example.

    Stradivarius is Batman reborn. Whatever the jeopardy, he has the solution. His latest Gold Cup win was on dead ground that is not meant to favour him. He was kept in a pocket by Capri on his outside when Frankie Dettori wanted to make a move. Not a problem for Stradivarius. He is a stayer with a burst of acceleration which he used to get out of the pocket. After that he always looked likely to triumph.

    His win was by one length from Dee Ex Bee who had been rated 118 when runner-up to Masar in last year’s Derby. Less than a length further back in fourth was Cross Counter who came into the Gold Cup rated 118 after wins in the Melbourne Cup and the Dubai Gold Cup. Between them was the 108-rated Master Of Reality who had looked progressive hitherto, and the Irish Handicapper is happy to suggest he is now also worth a 118 rating.

    Stradivarius stays on his pre-race rating of 120 but I suspect that, like Batman, he will come out victorious no matter what. He rarely wins by wide margins, but he keeps winning. He is the sort of horse for which we cannot find a justification on form for a higher rating even if we think that he would be capable of it. Sea The Stars was the perfect example of this. I am confident that Stradivarius can run to higher than 120 when needed. I just want to see what else he has in his utility belt.

    Kicking in the tubo

    The Coventry Stakes on day one is often considered the best of the six juvenile contests at Royal Ascot but this year the feature performance within the age group was saved until last, writes Graeme Smith.

    Pinatubo currently tops the list of juveniles in Europe at 110 following a Chesham success in which he lowered the two-year-old track record by no less than 0.82 seconds, which translates to nearly five lengths. That’s the headline, but those of us who take these things seriously will know that more important in terms of context is how the time stood up against other races under that day’s conditions – drying ground and tailwind – and again the answer was positive.

    In a soundly-run race the match-up with the much-hyped Lope Y Fernandez duly materialized as the market leaders were played together approaching the final 1f, and Pinatubo ran right away from him to score by more than three lengths. The striking thing on the sectionals was that the other principals largely kept going through the last two furlongs but Pinatubo actually quickened off that pace, earning himself extra credit into the bargain. Lope Y Fernandez ran to 101 on my figures, although, as with all the Irish horses, a final decision on their handicap marks lies with my Irish counterpart.

    The Coventry has a rich history of throwing up high-class horses but while the right ones came to the fore in terms of pre-race form and market expectations, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that this was a substandard renewal, in terms of what was achieved on the day at least. The lowest winning figure in the Coventry this century came courtesy of Rajasinghe in 2017 (107) when the first ten were covered by less than five lengths. This time it was less than four lengths, and that was a strong recommendation for going below the historical standard for the principals.

    Speed figures were difficult to gauge in the early part of the week with heavy rain continually moving the goalposts, but Ascot’s electronic sectional timing data discredited any suggestion the busy finish had anything to do with a lack of pace.

    It is of course early days in the development of these two-year-olds, and Arizona and Threat certainly have plenty to recommend them physically, but Arizona’s figure of 108 sits around 5 lb below the average Coventry winner this century.

    Conversely, the front two in the Norfolk were well up to standard. A’Ali had gone into many a notebook when pushing Spartan Fighter into recording a very useful time at Ripon on his debut and his followers didn’t have to wait long to cash in. From a race where the first five were trained in Britain, A’Ali emerges with a performance figure of 108 (he needs to run again before he’s eligible for a handicap mark), while Ventura Rebel dispelled any suggestion he’d been flattered to pick off tiring rivals last time and goes in on 107.

    The emphasis was on stamina at the trip in the Windsor Castle and a finish in which the first six were still covered by less than two lengths was always going to lead to a figure towards the low end historically. The winner Southern Hills ran to 101 on my figures and I’m not entirely convinced the finishing order will stand up if some of these meet again in the future.

    The stand side became the place to be as Wednesday wore on and the first three home came from the three highest stalls. I’d been impressed by Symbolize on his debut at Salisbury – form that looks even better now with the runner-up Aroha having finished third in the Albany – and he’s one of several who could make a better fist of things another day. For what it’s worth he ran three metres further than the winner.

    The better of the fillies’ races was almost certainly the Albany. Daahyeh had beaten the Queen Mary winner Raffle Prize by a length and three-quarters (5 lb) on their respective debuts at Newmarket last month and, leaning primarily on historical standards, that remains the difference between them.

    Roger Varian’s filly looked in trouble as Celtic Beauty got to her travelling better and even edged past, but as that one fizzled out to run the slowest last furlong of any of the first four Daahyeh showed real fight to win with authority in the end. Time will obviously tell how Daahyeh’s 109 figure stands up, but that’s currently the benchmark in the fillies’ division.

    Raffle Prize rather ruined the party for Wesley Ward after Kimari had ensured a proper test at the 5f trip of the Queen Mary in pursuit of a fourth win in the race for her stable. There was relatively little between the two fillies at the line but Raffle Prize was always getting the better of it through the last hundred yards and she emerges with a rating of 104. Raffle Prize is already proven at 6f and it may well be that a rematch with Daahyeh could be on the cards in something like the Duchess of Cambridge or the Lowther further into summer.

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    Thank you very much for a great read loved it

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    July Festival 2019 | Handicappers Blog
    16 Jul 19

    Sovereigns reigns supreme
    When I arrived at the July course on Saturday the news that greeted me was a huge gamble taking place on Ten Sovereigns, writes Stewart Copeland. Early morning quotes of 10/1 had soon disappeared and he’d displaced Advertise, his conqueror in last month’s Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, as favourite for the Darley July Cup. Come late afternoon, those who had placed such faith in the colt were more than vindicated.

    With this season’s leading sprinter Blue Point retired following his Royal Ascot double, much of the pre-race talk had largely focussed on Dream of Dreams, who had narrowly failed to catch Blue Point in the Diamond Jubilee, and the aforementioned three-year-old Advertise. We couldn’t split that pair on official ratings, with both rated 119, and a fascinating clash beckoned between the older and younger generations.

    However, it shouldn’t have been forgotten that the best form in the race had been posted by Ten Sovereigns when successful in last year’s Middle Park, after which he’d been credited with a rating of 120. The faith in the market suggested the combination of 6f and quick going – conditions he’d encountered in the Middle Park – would see him return to form, and so it proved in spectacular style.

    The field split into two groups, one down the centre and the other coming down the stand side. Under a no-nonsense ride Ten Sovereigns was soon at the head of affairs in the centre group, displaying excellent speed and finding plenty when push came to shove around two furlongs out. He ran out a commanding winner, beating his old foe Advertise by two and three quarters lengths, with the filly Fairyland (one of two other Ballydoyle runners) a further three quarters of a length back in third.

    The responsibility for publishing Ten Sovereigns’ rating rests with my Irish colleagues. After discussing the race, we settled on a figure of 122 for him. That is a particularly noteworthy achievement as it’s the highest rating posted in the race since Oasis Dream’s 125 in 2003, and also the leading figure at 6f in Europe this year.

    As for those who chased him home, Advertise ran a highly creditable race despite not quite fully reproducing his Commonwealth Cup form. He left the distinct impression that this test on quicker going than at Ascot was on the sharp side for him, and the Prix Maurice de Gheest over 6.5f at Deauville – his mooted next target – looks an ideal race for him.

    The next three places were filled by three-year-old fillies – that generation dominated the contest – and they give the form a solid look. All largely reproduced the level they had shown previously this season. In Fairyland’s case she deserves a special mention as she fared best of the slightly smaller group who came up the stand rail, with her being somewhat isolated from the two main protagonists late on. She ran to a rating of 110 but it would be no great surprise if there was better to come from her.

    Mystery powers to Superlative success

    With a trio of juvenile pattern events across the three days, the July Festival is an important staging post in the two-year-old calendar. Graeme Smithassesses the merits of the latest winners of those races…

    The opening pattern race for juveniles, the Tattersalls July Stakes, saw Visinari sent off at odds-on to add to a dazzling debut on the July course last month only for him to succumb in a tight finish to a couple who’d been beaten at Royal Ascot. In hindsight, both Royal Lytham and Platinum Star had scope for further improvement; the former having lined up for the Coventry only ten days on from his debut and then found trouble, while the latter was stepping back up in trip after a second over 5f in the Windsor Castle. Nevertheless, following on from bunched finishes to those two races, this was another that returned a below-standard winner.

    The average winning performance in the July Stakes over the last five years has been around 113, and factoring in the distances between the principals this time suggested 110 for Royal Lytham. However, a speed figure stemming from the handicap over the same course and distance (supported by the sectionals) pointed to even lower and both myself and my Irish counterpart Mark Bird feel 108 is in the right region as things stand. That puts Platinum Star and Visinari (not yet eligible for a mark) on 107, with Guildsman 5lb off his Coventry figure of 106 back in fourth.

    There’s every chance Royal Lytham will progress further, however. He could certainly sharpen up his act in the early stages and I have a feeling an extra furlong will help.

    The Bet365 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes attracted the winners of both the Queen Mary and the Albany, and Raffle Prize produced the best performance of the season so far by a juvenile filly as she evened the score numerically with Daahyeh after having to give best on their respective debuts. Factor in the 3lb-penalty Raffle Prize conceded and this was impressive stuff.

    I outlined in my Ascot blog that track records aren’t always what they seem, and Raffle Prize’s lowering of the older-horse perch by 0.59 seconds is over-egging things slightly (strong tailwind, 6f record was reset in 2017 when the start was moved), but this was still a strong time trial and it fully justifies her new mark of 111. That’s as good as any performance in the Duchess of Cambridge from the last dozen years, with the exception of Pretty Pollyanna’s 116 last summer.


    The Queen Mary form is proving strong but the same can’t be said about the Albany and I’ve reined Daahyeh’s figure back 2 lb to 107. I’m not convinced she was seen to best effect here, however – she effectively gave Raffle Prize a two-length start in a race run with positive finishing splits, while this was run in a time 5 seconds faster than when her stamina won the day in the Albany (negative finishing split). I wouldn’t write her off for the Moyglare over an extra furlong just yet.

    The pick of the performances at Newmarket, and indeed from the British-trained juveniles all told at this stage, likely came from Mystery Power in the Bet365 Superlative Stakes. It’s never easy to be dogmatic about the level of the Superlative given it tends to attract unexposed sorts straight out of maidens/novices, but it was certainly encouraging to see the field string out. Historical standards suggested a figure of 112 and the time went a good way to backing that up, bearing in mind this finish was slightly faster, relatively speaking, than the maiden over the same trip.

    Both Mystery Power and runner-up Juan Elcano proved themselves smart on just their second career starts and it’s interesting that they beat the same horse in Subjectivist on their respective debuts. Mystery Power came out three quarters of a length ahead of Juan Elcano on a line through that rival and gained the verdict here by a length.

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    The 2019 Qipco King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes

    30 Jul 19


    The 2019 Qipco King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes is a race that I will remember for as long as I am able to remember horseracing, write Mark Olley. I have read in the past day or so comparisons to the 1975 Grundy v Bustino King George and while I am old enough to remember that race I didn’t realise the significance of what I was watching then until later. I am fully aware of the significance of this year’s race and, what a race it was!

    Sectional times confirm that this was a soundly run race from the start (these are freely available on www.ascot.co.ukalong with the distance travelled during the race of each runner) and the first three home, Enable, Crystal Ocean and Waldgeist were all positioned around mid-division or further back. Enable clearly didn’t have things go to plan in that it took a while to get in from a wide draw and she was probably a touch further back than Frankie had anticipated. However, she showed her star quality by overcoming this and winning by a fairly ready looking neck in the end. My initial view was that she was really inconvenienced by her passage through the race and I was slightly surprised to see that she “only” covered 1.9 meters further than Crystal Ocean in second – that equates to somewhere between 0.5 and 0.75 of a length which converts to around a pound with things rounded up.


    Factoring in the above and the style of victory I have called the winning neck margin 2lb and have her running to a rating of 126 (up 1lb from her pre-race 125). Five year race standards suggest a figure of 123, but I am comfortable being higher and 126 matches her performance when also winning the race in 2017 – she went on to be rated 128 that year after her Arc win.

    Crystal Ocean came into the race rated 127 and ran a magnificent race conceding Enable the 3lb mares allowance. It takes two horses to make a great race and he played his part and more. As the above figures show he had a marginally better passage through the race than Enable and to my eyes looked like winning for a stride or two inside the final furlong.

    He came into this race as the highest rated horse in the Longines World’s Best Racehorse list and it is a position he holds onto due to the fact that he was carrying 3lb more than Enable. However, as Enable will also get that allowance if/when they meet again the above ratings mean that we think Enable would win. In simplified terms a filly needs to have 3lb added to her rating to make a direct comparison with a colt/gelding.

    I would also like to clarify that these are current BHA ratings and may not necessarily be replicated on the Longines list where representatives from all racing nations have a vote on the final figures.

    I have Waldgeist running a career best rating of 124 (up 2lb) in third. Of the front three, he got the run of the race and covered 3.5 meters less than Enable, but he finished closer to Crystal Ocean than he did in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. He seems to love Longchamp and finished a close fourth in the Arc last year.

    The anomaly of having Enable on a lower rating than the horse she beat on Saturday, due to carrying less weight, got me thinking about what makes a top-class horse great. There is a list of horses, including Giants Causeway, Sea The Stars and possibly Frankel that didn’t seem to get the rating that maybe people thought they deserved. Ratings measure a performance on a given day, they are influenced by numerous factors including the rivals a horse meets and the way a race is run. If these are not favourable then it is hard for a horse to achieve a high rating. Meanwhile there are qualities like longevity, toughness and lovability which we all value, but can’t be factored into a horses rating. I think Enable is great, I think the King George was one of the best races I have seen and I hope the above helps explain why she is rated 126.

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    Glorious Goodwood 2019 Handicappers Blog
    06 Aug 19

    Arc on the cards for Stradivarius?

    Stradivarius wrote himself into the record books with another stellar performance on the opening day of the Qatar Goodwood Festival. Matthew Tester envisages what else he may achieve in 2019…

    Stradivarius became a record breaker. He is the first horse in history to win three Qatar Goodwood Cups in a row. He was taken on again by Dee Ex Bee and Cross Counter – who had chased him home in the Ascot Gold Cup – and he beat them again. For doing so, and for the style of the win, his rating has now gone up to 121 (from 120), with Dee Ex Bee also going up 1 lb (to 119) and Cross Counter remaining on his pre-race figure of 118.

    Presumably Stradivarius will again go for York’s Lonsdale Cup. Presumably he will win again and will pick up the £1m bonus once more. In some ways with dominant horses, as in the case of Frankel, we are just hoping that nothing goes wrong.

    For me the most exciting race of Frankel’s career after he had won the Guineas was in York’s Juddmonte International. He was tackling a new trip and the possibility that he might be beaten felt real. Frankel is the only horse I have ever seen that I could imagine winning both the July Cup and Ascot’s King George. He seemed to have the outstanding speed for 6f and the stamina for 12f. Stradivarius has won over as far as two and a half miles but could he win over a mile less at Group 1 level? Ardross won two Ascot Gold Cups and then took a crack at the Arc and went down by just a head. It was glory in defeat.

    Stradivarius was only a short head behind Crystal Ocean in their Leger – the pair half a length behind the winner Capri – and Crystal Ocean is the highest rated 12f horse in the world currently. The Champion Stayers race at Ascot on British Champions Day must be tempting for Stradivarius’ connections. But Stradivarius shows an excellent turn of foot to win his staying races and he might be able to produce his best in a truly-run Arc. I hope that they roll the dice.

    My fingers are also crossed for the Lillie Langtry winner Enbihaar. She is a big filly with a great stride and she is getting better and better. Her five-length win at Goodwood was impressive and has earned her a 113 handicap rating. She would get a fillies’ allowance of three pounds if she takes on the colts, making her very close to the big boys in races around 14f. The thought that she may not have finished improving makes her a very exciting prospect for the autumn.

    Hot too good for Sussex rivals

    In what turned out to be the final start of a truncated but stellar career, Too Darn Hot landed the Qatar Sussex Stakes on Wednesday, writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill. He turned the tables on his St James’s Palace conqueror Circus Maximus with a little more in hand than the final margin of half a length suggests. Having posted a BHA figure of 121 when returning to winning ways over 7f in a Group 1 in France earlier in July, I have John Gosden’s colt running to a figure of 120 in the Sussex, with Circus Maximus improving a pound on his Royal Ascot success to 118.

    I do have some concerns regarding the proximity of I Can Fly in third and Happy Power in fourth (both rated 110 pre-race) but the former has been rated higher previously and the latter had a progressive profile before blowing out in the Jersey at Royal Ascot on ground that might have been a tad too quick for him. I am prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt in the short term but I wouldn’t be adverse to bringing the level of the Sussex down 1 lb if they fail to reproduce this form between now and the end of the year.

    Disappointments of the race were Lord Glitters (fifth, pre-race 117), Phoenix of Spain (sixth, 120) and Zabeel Prince (seventh, 117) who all failed to show their best. They all have solid form from earlier in the season, however, and retain their previous ratings. Rated 126 when champion juvenile last season, Too Darn Hot’s current rating of 121 makes him the leading 3yo miler In Europe as things stand.

    King George Stakes hat-trick for Battaash

    The Group 2 Qatar King George Stakes over 5f saw a little bit of history made when Battaash became the first horse to win the race three times, writes Chris Nash.

    Battaash’s pre-race rating of 123 put him upwards of 13 lb clear of his eight rivals and that was reflected in an SP of 4/1-on. He duly won and probably with a shade more comfort than the official margin of three quarters of a length suggests. In second place was Houtzen who was formerly trained in Australia but was having her first run for Martyn Meade – she arrived here rated 108. Afurther two and a half lengths back in third was Ornate who had been in good form recently but at a lower level than this and had a pre-race rating of 102.

    Battaash had dazzled in his two previous victories in this race, recording a figure of 122 in 2017 and 125 last year, the latter remaining a career best. He was slightly less imposing this time but still recorded a comprehensive victory. I have allocated him a figure of 118+ for this performance and his official rating will remain unchanged at 123.

    Houtzen received 6 lb from the winner – Battaash carried a 3 lb penalty and she also received a 3 lb fillies allowance. The three-quarters of a length that she was beaten equates to 3 lb at this distance, so in all Houtzen comes out 9 lb inferior to Battaash on the day, giving her a figure of 109 – we have had her running to that mark in Australia previously but never any higher. Ornate has run to a figure of 103 which is a recent best, though he was rated as high as 110 in 2017.

    Following his previous two wins in this race Battaash has headed to York to run in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes, and both times he has finished fourth whilst running a fair way below his Goodwood form. Connections indicated that he will almost certainly take the same path again. Charlie Hills’ gelding will line up as the highest rated in the race and if he can finally replicate his Goodwood form at York he’ll take all the beating.
    Last edited by Perpetual; 8th August 2019 at 1:11 PM.

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    York Ebor Festival | Handicappers Blog
    27 Aug 19


    International glory for Japan

    Top-rated Crystal Ocean was just touched off by Ballydoyle raider Japan in the Juddmonte International, the feature race on day 1 of the Ebor Festival. Head of Handicapping Dominic Gardiner-Hillassesses the form…

    I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a tad disappointed that Crystal Ocean (127) didn’t win the Juddmonte International, but that is purely from a handicapping perspective because, as always, he gave it everything and ran his usual game and gutsy race – and it’s not as if it’s the first time a hot favourite has come unstuck in this event. Go back twelve months and Crystal Ocean’s stablemate Poet’s Word arrived at York on the back of winning the King George at Ascot, when beating Crystal Ocean by a neck and running to a figure of 126. He couldn’t quite repeat that form on the Knavesmire three weeks later, however, finishing runner-up to three-year-old Roaring Lion (albeit sustaining a career-ending injury in the process).

    Back to Crystal Ocean, and maybe the hard race he had behind Enable at Ascot left its mark? Perhaps the drop to ten furlongs was against him? Or maybe, just maybe, he saves his best performances for the Berkshire track? His three best figures have all come at Ascot – 125 in last year’s King George and a brace of 127s in the Prince of Wales’s and the King George this season. The 121 I have him running to last week is more in line with his other performances away from Ascot.

    In settling on a level for the Juddmonte I have not only looked at the previous form and ratings of the horses concerned but also looked back at previous runnings of the race. No fifth placed horse has performed above 115 in the Juddmonte since the turn of the century and I see no obvious reason why Regal Reality should prove the exception to that rule. However, given the quality of the field, I am happy to have him match that figure.

    This level suggests improved performances from the progressive three-year-olds Japan (up to 122 from 117) and King of Comedy (fourth, up to 118 from 116), and means the resurgent Elarqam (3rd) has run to 119+ having been slightly hampered in the final half furlong or so. I now believe I slightly underestimated his previous success in the Sky Bet York Stakes which I originally called 118 but could easily be 120 if using Addeybb (second) and Knight To Behold (third) as a guide to the level. As such, I have raised Elarqam to a new mark of 120.

    Oaks magic from Enable


    The Group 1 Darley Yorkshire Oaks may have been light on numbers but it more than made up for it in quality and it was probably the last time we will see Enable on a British racecourse, writes Mark Olley.

    Things didn’t go to plan for Enable in the King George, but they were much more straightforward on the Knavesmire. John Gosden’s charge dictated a steady pace before showing a terrific turn of foot to totally dominate high-class rival Magical.

    Sectional times from the meeting show Enable covered the first five furlongs in 65.85 seconds. Forty minutes later over the same twelve furlong trip, Galtres winner Search For A Song recorded 63.31s for her first five furlongs, fully 2.54s (around 15 lengths) quicker, an illustration of how relatively sedately they went in the Yorkshire Oaks. However, Enable’s final time was 0.4 seconds faster, and her final furlong sectional of 11.98 seconds was matched on the day only by Mums Tipple, who was an eleven-length winner of the six-furlong sales race.

    When races are relatively steadily run it makes it hard for horses to exert their superiority over rivals and to compensate for that we increase the poundage used. Both Enable and Magical were eased in the closing stages and I have called the two and three-quarter lengths winning margin 6 lb, which basically means we think Enable was value for a further one length.

    Magical is a dual Group 1 winner who has also finished runner-up in both the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot and Coral Eclipse at Sandown this year. She is an ultra tough and high-class mare (rated 122) and brings substance to the Yorkshire Oaks form. Magical has met Enable twice before, in the Breeders’ Cup Turf and the Eclipse, and on both occasions finished three-quarters of a length second. In extending that superiority over her old rival, Enable looks to have run as well as she ever has. As a result I have taken her back to her peak rating of 128, a figure she last achieved when winning her first Arc as a three-year-old. As I mentioned in a previous blog, her 128 rating is equivalent to that of a 131 rated colt as her 3 lb mares allowance needs to be added on for comparison.

    There was another twelve furlong performance of note at York and that was Logician’s impressive success in the Group 2 Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes. He maintained his unbeaten record despite the significant step up in grade, and a one and three-quarter length defeat of Constantinople earns him a rating of 115. To put context to that figure, only Bandari (114 in 2002) has rated lower on the day among Great Voltigeur winners this century. However, I’m sure we haven’t seen the best of Logician yet.

    Third time lucky for Battaash

    A runaway success for Battaash in the Group 1 Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes more than made amends for the gelding’s two previous failures in the race (including a defeat as odds-on favourite twelve months ago). In the process he looks to have produced a career-best performance, as Chris Nash explains…

    The Nunthorpe was won in mightily impressive fashion by Battaash. He tracked the early pace, moved upsides the leaders on the bridle at halfway and strode clear from there to win by three and three-quarter lengths. It was a performance of total authority.

    The visual impressions were also backed up by the clock as Battaash broke the five furlong track record set by Dayjur in the same race some twenty-nine years previously. Dayjur’s winning time back in 1990 was 56.16 seconds and Battaash bettered that 0.26s. To put that into context, the 0.26s margin would equate to around one and a half lengths, which would be the equivalent of between 5 and 6 lbs over five furlongs. It also looks like Dayjur carried 9st 6lbs in his race (with his 3 lb weight-for-age allowance added back on), whereas Battaash carried 5 lbs more at 9st 11lbs.

    The last ten winners of the Nunthorpe range from 116 to 124 and applying race standards to this renewal gives a figure of 126-127 for Battaash. In second place was Soldier’s Call who had placed in both the Abbaye last autumn and the King’s Stand earlier this season, running to a figure of 114 both times – there appears to be no reason why he wouldn’t have done so again. A further length back in third was the Irish-trained So Perfect who arrived here rated 106 but had reached a peak of 110 in her two-year-old career – her presence in third does nothing to detract from this form, especially as she was in receipt of the 3 lb sex allowance from the first two. I have called the winning margin 13 lbs and settled on a figure of 127 for Battaash, which has Soldier’s Call repeating his 114 figures and So Perfect running to 108.

    The Nunthorpe would have to rate a career best for Battaash. I did initially rate him 127 after he scorched home in the King George Stakes at Goodwood last year but that form didn’t work out and I dropped him back to 125 subsequently. My international colleagues were less impressed and they dropped him back to 123 at the end of last season. Looking at their initial ratings for the Nunthorpe, it appears that the majority of them are reluctant to give Battaash as much credit as I am with their figures ranging from only 121 to 127. We’ll see what happens when the ratings are ratified at the end of the year but I reckon you will struggle to see a more impressive five furlong performance.

    He becomes the highest rated winner of the Nunthorpe this century, an honour that previously belonged to Nuclear Debate who achieved a figure of 124 in 2000. More recently Mecca’s Angel was given a figure of 121 for winning the 2016 renewal – as a filly getting a 3 lb allowance that ranks the equivalent of a 124 rating for a male.

    Whichever way you look at his effort it is hard to knock what Battaash did on Friday. In terms of domestic performances this season his 127 figure will slot him just behind Enable (128) and will put him level with Crystal Ocean.

    As he is already a gelding we should have the pleasure of seeing Battaash in action for some time to come. We may well see him next on Irish Champions weekend in the Group 1 Derrinstown Flying Five and following that he will likely go to Paris to run in the Abbaye, a race he won back in 2017. Connections have also mentioned possibly having a crack at the Breeders’ Cup as well.

    Mums Tipple storms up the juvenile rankings

    The three pattern races for juveniles at York last week were put firmly in the shade by what at first glance appeared to be a freak performance from Mums Tipple in the Goffs UK Premier Yearling Auction Stakes, writes Graeme Smith.

    Mums Tipple was a strong favourite considering the form of his debut success at Ascot seemed to leave him with plenty to find with a handful in opposition, and in less than 70 seconds of action – in which he blitzed his 20 rivals by no fewer than eleven lengths – he stamped himself as one of the hottest prospects in the bloodstock world right now.

    Emotionally this was right up there with Lady Aurelia’s Queen Mary decimation and I daresay there will have been people minded to search the web for the video of Arazi from all those years ago, but handicapping the race requires a much more objective judgement.

    Putting figures on such a dominant performance is never easy, particularly as the leading form picks surely didn’t fire given their proximity to others in the race, so his figure for now is slightly tentative in the hope we find out more in the Mill Reef and/or Middle Park.

    A strict mathematical interpretation of the eleven-length margin suggested a figure approaching 120, which would be the best by any two-year-old in Europe this year. However, smart as his time was it stopped short of confirming such a lofty view and that looks telling evidence with the sectionals suggesting he ran his race very efficiently.A line through the well-run mile handicap brings a speed figure of 116/117 for Mums Tipple and he’s been rated the lower of those figures, bearing in mind he had the strong tailwind at his back throughout his race whereas the milers didn’t.

    Regardless of Mums Tipple’s rating for the time being, he’s a handsome colt who clearly has a huge amount of ability and he’ll be a box office draw wherever he turns up next.

    The second most valuable two-year-old prize from York also made its way back to Richard Hannon’s Wiltshire base thanks to Threat pressing his clear form advantage home in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes.
    The Coventry and Richmond runner-up had upwards of 9 lb in hand of his rivals on pre-race figures in a renewal that seemingly lacked its usual depth, and even with Lord of The Lodge taking another big leap forward for front-running tactics, he got the job done by a length and a quarter. A 2 lb rise to 113 pegs Threat as an average Gimcrack winner judged on the last 7 years. Historical standards pointed to a higher mark, as tends to be the case with strung-out finishes, but that level didn’t feel right given what the opposition had achieved pre-race.

    The other two group races at York stayed in the county courtesy of Living in The Past and Valdermoro.
    Last edited by Perpetual; 29th August 2019 at 8:42 AM.

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    Wonder where the OH gets his York sectionals from - any ideas?

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    The William Hill St Leger Festival
    17 Sep 19


    Leger joy for Logician

    Logician’s success in the St Leger – a sixth win in the race for Frankie Dettori and fifth for trainer John Gosden – was the highlight of the St Leger Festival. Matthew Tester assesses the season’s final Classic…

    Logician went into the William Hill St Leger a worthy favourite but with some questions to answer. He was racing over two and a half furlongs further than he had tried before. His style of racing suggested that he would cope; but his mother had done all her winning at a mile and her mother had done all her winning at seven furlongs. Logician’s father is Frankel.

    Connections had also expressed concerns that this big horse might not like the quick ground. Unbeaten in four starts prior to Doncaster, one of them a Group 2, could Logician step up to Group 1 level and show his best? The simple answer is “yes”, breaking the track record in the process, but racing is rarely simple.The race was actually full of questions beforehand and, to some extent, still is.

    Sir Dragonet had been narrowly beaten when fifth in the Derby, a performance which merited a rating of 117, but had lost his only race since which was over ten furlongs. Could he run to his best? Il Paradiso had finished only a little over a length behind Stradivarius when third in the Lonsdale Cup over two miles last time. But Stradivarius only seems to pull out enough to win and the other two opponents that day each bled after the race. Dashing Willoughby had won over fourteen furlongs but his form at twelve furlongs looked better.

    And then there was Sir Ron Priestley. He was rated at 108 before the race compared with Logician’s 115 but, the winner of five of his last six races, could he improve enough?

    After the race most things looked clearer. Sir Ron Priestley does look to have improved again in finishing second. Sir Dragonet did not reproduce over the Leger trip on fast ground what he had in the Derby and on easy ground at Chester. Dashing Willoughby faded and still looks better at twelve furlongs. Il Paradiso had everything his own way but seemed to lack the speed to cope when the others quickened. But what about the winner, Logician?

    He won, and he won with authority. The winning margin of two and a quarter lengths would typically be treated as three pounds superiority over the Leger trip. The second and third (Nayef Road) were separated by only one hundredth of a second and each of them went into the race rated 108. So a bare appraisal might make Logician as low as 111 for the win. That would be a very low figure historically for a Leger winner and surely wouldn’t do Logician justice.

    It seems much more likely that Sir Ron Priestley and Nayef Road have run career-best performances in their first Group 1 race. I moved them up to 112 each but one could make a case for them being 110. There is also one piece of evidence that they should be 114. Ratings are only ever our best expression of merit based on the information available at the time. There is no “correct” answer and the level of the race could move up or down based on subsequent performances. As for Logician, I moved his rating up to 117, believing that he won more decisively than the bare minimum of three pounds would suggest. In the five most recent St Legers the winner had been credited with figures between 114 and 120, with 117 the median figure.

    My personal belief is that Logician won despite the fast ground and the extended distance. There is no reason why this figure of 117 is anywhere close to the maximum that he will achieve in his career. He has only raced five times, has improved with every run and is a big horse who has not yet finished maturing. I suspect that he will be kept to twelve furlongs in future and that ground this fast will never be perfect for him. I also suspect that he will be capable of performing well into the 120s next year, which would make the Arc a real possibility. But only if Enable has retired!

    Threat defies penalty in Champagne Stakes

    Doncaster staged the latest round of pattern races in the British juvenile season and, unsurprisingly, Threat proved the star of the show with his Pommery Champagne Stakes success, writes Graeme Smith

    Richard Hannon’s chestnut was the pick on form going in, with his Gimcrack success having earned him a rating of 113, and he didn’t have to better that by much to add a second Group 2 to his portfolio.

    With a false pace leading to a bunched finish (speed figure of just 77) the level of form was rather limited, but the 3-lb penalty Threat shouldered for that success at York upgraded his performance and left him just 1 lb off the average winner of recent years at 114. There’s no doubt he’s an admirable juvenile and a stronger tempo to help him settle might bring about even more improvement.

    Royal Crusade ran to a figure of 109 on only his second start and was just a neck off Threat, having travelled into things just as well as the winner. There’s probably also an upside to the third-placed Juan Elcano. He looks more of a galloper than the first two and a stiffer test of stamina promises to help.

    The William Hill May Hill Stakes attracted a couple of previous pattern winners in West End Girl and Boomer. The former failed to fire for whatever reason but the latter’s Prestige Stakes win had been endorsed a couple of times, including by Stylistique in the earlier nursery, and another good run on her part in finishing second provided substance to Powerful Breeze’s winning performance of 105. Interestingly, that was exactly the figure historical standards for the race suggested.

    I’d been unconvinced as to the depth of the novice Powerful Breeze won at Newmarket last month but she’d recorded a fairly useful time as well as stringing the field out that day. Having taken this step up to Group 2 company in her stride, the next step for her is surely a Group 1, with the Fillies’ Mile looking an obvious target.

    Incidentally, the average performance of the winner from the last five years of that race is 114.

    My colleague Chris Nash assessed A’Ali’s Wainwright Flying Childers success and has him running 3 lb off the 112 he’d achieved in the Prix Robert Papin. Molathamproduced a useful performance elevated to listed company in the Weatherbys Global Stallions App Flying Scotsman Stakes. This was another false test and busy finish, but he didn’t seem as hard pushed as the half-length margin suggests so may well improve again from a slightly substandard winning figure of 102.

    Of course, the performance of the last week or so in the two-year-old division was undoubtedly Pinatubo’s blistering success in the National Stakes at the Curragh. In fact, it could well be the performance of the decade. As Sunday forms part of the next racing week I’m unable to look at that until after the Doncaster ratings have been filed but suffice to say I’m well aware of the style he did it in and the scorching time he clocked. Watch this space

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