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Thread: The thoughts of the handicappers.

  1. #841
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    Quote Originally Posted by barjon View Post
    Yes, desert, I’m with you on the improvers and targeting front. Trainers tend to be creatures of habit and prepare their horses for their target races in tried and trusted fashion. There used to be an invaluable publication years ago (can’t even recall it’s name now) that was all about the trainers and their individual methods. Gold dust that was.
    Pro-form springs to mind,BJ?

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    desert, reet

    Damned if I can remember. May have been an annual publication that reviewed a number of trainers and identified patterns from how, when and where their horses had performed prior to winning. Seem to remember it as something I carried about with me, so not a heavyweight Timeform Annual type tome.

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    The book I'm thinking of was based on Sporting Life data about trainers. It listed every trainer's annual statistics for every course, jockey etc.

    It might have been called something like Trainer Statistics [plus the season in question]'

    Whether there was a blurb about what races they were targeting etc, I'm not so sure. It's the kind of information printed every day in the likes of the RP but it was always useful to have it at the start of a season. Strictly for anoraks, though, as I was back then.

    I still like to check the data in the Weekender under a race ti see who the most successful trainers are in certain races. Sometimes it helps me decide between contenders.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


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    I do indeed. The point I missed in my boring golf post is that high handicap golfers have much more variability in their handicap. One bad round and you could get a whole shot back whereas it would have taken 10 in the old system.

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
    "And still they gazed and still the wonder grew. That one small head could carry all he knew.

    And that small head knew that Impaire Et Passe would win the Champion Hurdle."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Desert Orchid View Post
    I don't fully understand the rationale behind dropping a horse's rating on the back of its not running to form, especially when there's an obvious excuse for it.

    I'm trying to think of an equivalent in other sports. If I could regularly run the marathon in 2h59m I'd be called a sub-3hr marathon runner. If, one day, I wasn't feeling 100% and only managed 3h05m would that make my previous achievements null and void? Would I no longer be a sub-3hr runner? I think that's a weird approach.

    It wouldn't happen in golf, would it? I don't know enough about golf handicapping but I understand it's very difficult to get your handicap changed on the basis of one performance.

    Alternatively, is it tantamount to admitting a previous higher rating was a miscalculation? With all their computer power that they tend to boast about?

    I'd have more respect for them if they held their ratings for longer, until further evidence offered definite evidence that a previous mark was inaccurate.
    A sign of the immediate reactionary nature of content

    Of course any number is a reflection of what's possible and your suggestion of a regression towards a true rating meaning the original was too high seems fair
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  7. #846
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    Late update....

    Tornado whips up a storm
    04 Jan 22

    This time last year I was bemoaning the fact that the staying chase division was very hard to read, with an ever revolving order of merit due to constant upsets and below-par performances. Fast forward twelve months and the picture looks remarkably similar, with the two big races over the Christmas period doing little to clarify matters at the top of the division.

    Let’s start at home in what looked a very open Ladbrokes King George at Kempton in which the betting didn’t really reflect previous achievements/ratings. Not for the first time in this race numerous horses failed to give their running, notably the early pacesetters Minella Indo and Frodon, and the gambled- on Chantry House. The first two almost certainly paid for going hard early, while Chantry House didn’t jump anywhere near well enough. Dual winner Clan des Obeaux came out of the race with some credit but was a still long way below his best, while Saint Calvados (making his debut for Paul Nicholls) shaped really well for the second year running in this race but again surely had too much use made of him after travelling strongly.

    That left the two Irish challengers, Tornado Flyer and Asterion Forlonge, to fight out the finish, though the latter failed to complete for the second start running having been three lengths down (and probably held) when falling at the last. With the race providing more questions than answers, I have taken a conservative view for now but even so Tornado Flyer has achieved his highest ever rating on 167, with Asterion Forlonge on 164+. The maths and standards suggest a few lbs higher which may prove to be the case down the line, as both horses are very unexposed over three miles plus.

    Over at Leopardstown, A Plus Tard looked the obvious answer to the Savills Chase and he was sent off at odds on. Second in last season’s Gold Cup and a highly impressive winner of the Betfair Chase at Haydock on his reappearance, A Plus Tard was largely untroubled through the race and looked likely to win when taking over the lead from the game Kemboy approaching the last. However, the warning signs were quickly evident as he struggled to fend off the rallying Kemboy and was then chinned close home by the strong-staying Galvin who had briefly looked tapped for toe. With Kemboy, Melon and Janidil all running somewhere close to their recent best, it’s hard to get Galvin above his new rating of 168 but this represents further progress and his record at Cheltenham will likely make him a popular choice when he lines up for the Gold Cup in March. A Plus Tard, meanwhile, is deemed to have run a few lbs below his best form despite going so close to gaining a second successive victory in the race.

    A quick summary of the two staying races in the novice division. Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame were the obvious pair from the four runners in the Kauto Star at Kempton but the result was very one-sided with the latter trouncing the former. Ahoy Senor, like at Newbury, didn’t always impress with his jumping and certainly needs to brush up in that department. Bravemansgame was largely much better in that regard and was always in control after taking over the lead. The time comparison compared to the King George comes out in the low-to-mid 150s, and a new mark of 156+ for Bravemansgame is slightly higher than he was rated going in. Ahoy Senor is back down to his hurdle mark of 152.

    While it is obvious that Bravemansgame is open to further improvement, at the minute I have the front two from Leopardstown’s equivalent Grade 1, Fury Road and Run Wild Fred, rated higher. Contrary to popular belief, this doesn’t mean I believe that this is the ‘true picture’ of events. What itdoes mean is that I believe their performances so far are evidentially stronger taking all things into account. Bravemansgame or others may well progress through the ranks to be top dog by seasons end. Run Wild Fred was already 158 following his runaway handicap success at Navan in November but had to play second best and was quite a few pounds below that at Leopardstown. Fury Road was having only his third fencing start and has quickly found a high level of form. He came through smoothly to take the lead from his stable companion and forged well clear to post a figure of 160+.

    Festive cheer once more for Epatante

    A second success for Epatante in Kempton’s Grade 1 Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle didn’t tell us a great deal more as regards her claims of reclaiming the Champion Hurdle, and if anything the race was a further demonstration that the cupboard is pretty bare at the top of the 2m hurdling division on this side of the Irish Sea, writes Andrew Mealor…

    Five went to post for Christmas Hurdle, but only Epatante and Not So Sleepy (the pair who had dead-heated in the Fighting Fifth last month) were rated 150 or above pre-race, and with the latter clearly not in the same form as at Newcastle (in trouble turning in and finished last of the quintet), Epatante had a pretty simple task as it turned out in beating handicappers Glory and Fortune and Soaring Glory. The margin of victory was only a couple of lengths but she did was what needed and was four lengths clear for much of the run-in before probably idling late on.

    Historical standards suggest a figure around 150 for Epatante’s performance but this very much looks a below-par renewal, especially considering the proximity of Glory And Fortune who was the lowest rated of the quintet on 140 coming in. As such, I have taken a more conservative view of proceedings and have Epatante running to a figure of just 141+ in winning. That means a rise to 143 for Glory And Fortune, and he could be on that sort of figure on the form of his Welsh Champion Hurdle win back in October, when he beat subsequent Haydock winner Dans le Vent.


    A level a few lbs higher for the race could have been justified through third Soaring Glory (147), but defeats for Glory And Fortune off marks of 142 and 141 in handicaps on his previous couple of starts (albeit with possible excuses) suggest a lower view of his performance and the race as a whole is more realistic for the time being.

    Epatante remains on her pre-race rating of 153 (160 in effect in races against the males). Her Champion Hurdle claims were covered in the Fighting Fifth blog and the Christmas Hurdle didn’t alter the view that she’ll need to step up on the form she’s shown in the past two seasons if she’s to regain her crown.

    The Christmas Hurdle didn’t even produce the best performance in the 2m division domestically over the festive period. That honour went to Musselburgh’s Betway Hogmaneigh Handicap in which Tommy’s Oscar defied top weight and a mark of 150 pretty readily in scoring by six lengths from southern raider Christopher Wood, earning himself a rise to 156. Small-field graded events will present him with a different test (and opposition), with connections indicating Haydock’s Champion Hurdle Trial will be next, but he’s been very progressive so far this season and has more than earned his place.

    The other big race in the division over the festive period was the Grade 1 Coral Finale Hurdle for juveniles at Chepstow on Welsh National day.


    The Finale perhaps wasn’t as informative as might have been the case with the fancied pair of Forever Blessed (badly hampered) and Skycutter (keen in front and made a mistake three out) both ending up well beaten, plus they only jumped six of the usual eight hurdles with final flight in the home straight omitted on both circuits. However, it’s hard to knock Porticello who relished the emphasis on stamina in the conditions in running out an eight-and-a-half length winner from Saint Segal (keen and shaped well) and Forever William. He moves up 3 lb to 135, the same mark as his Summit Hurdle conqueror Knight Supreme. That’s a fairly conservative view of the race historically so there is scope for the level to move up in time if the form works out.

    In truth, this season’s juveniles haven’t looked a strong bunch thus far with the best of them domestically clustered in the mid-to-low 130s, and the clear standard setter in the division at this stage looks to be Gordon Elliott’s Fil Dor who maintained his unbeaten record over timber with a seven-length success in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. He doesn’t have a published mark in Ireland as yet but I have him on a provisional 142 as things stand.

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    Late update....

    Tornado whips up a storm
    04 Jan 22

    This time last year I was bemoaning the fact that the staying chase division was very hard to read, with an ever revolving order of merit due to constant upsets and below-par performances. Fast forward twelve months and the picture looks remarkably similar, with the two big races over the Christmas period doing little to clarify matters at the top of the division.

    Let’s start at home in what looked a very open Ladbrokes King George at Kempton in which the betting didn’t really reflect previous achievements/ratings. Not for the first time in this race numerous horses failed to give their running, notably the early pacesetters Minella Indo and Frodon, and the gambled- on Chantry House. The first two almost certainly paid for going hard early, while Chantry House didn’t jump anywhere near well enough. Dual winner Clan des Obeaux came out of the race with some credit but was a still long way below his best, while Saint Calvados (making his debut for Paul Nicholls) shaped really well for the second year running in this race but again surely had too much use made of him after travelling strongly.

    That left the two Irish challengers, Tornado Flyer and Asterion Forlonge, to fight out the finish, though the latter failed to complete for the second start running having been three lengths down (and probably held) when falling at the last. With the race providing more questions than answers, I have taken a conservative view for now but even so Tornado Flyer has achieved his highest ever rating on 167, with Asterion Forlonge on 164+. The maths and standards suggest a few lbs higher which may prove to be the case down the line, as both horses are very unexposed over three miles plus.

    Over at Leopardstown, A Plus Tard looked the obvious answer to the Savills Chase and he was sent off at odds on. Second in last season’s Gold Cup and a highly impressive winner of the Betfair Chase at Haydock on his reappearance, A Plus Tard was largely untroubled through the race and looked likely to win when taking over the lead from the game Kemboy approaching the last. However, the warning signs were quickly evident as he struggled to fend off the rallying Kemboy and was then chinned close home by the strong-staying Galvin who had briefly looked tapped for toe. With Kemboy, Melon and Janidil all running somewhere close to their recent best, it’s hard to get Galvin above his new rating of 168 but this represents further progress and his record at Cheltenham will likely make him a popular choice when he lines up for the Gold Cup in March. A Plus Tard, meanwhile, is deemed to have run a few lbs below his best form despite going so close to gaining a second successive victory in the race.

    A quick summary of the two staying races in the novice division. Ahoy Senor and Bravemansgame were the obvious pair from the four runners in the Kauto Star at Kempton but the result was very one-sided with the latter trouncing the former. Ahoy Senor, like at Newbury, didn’t always impress with his jumping and certainly needs to brush up in that department. Bravemansgame was largely much better in that regard and was always in control after taking over the lead. The time comparison compared to the King George comes out in the low-to-mid 150s, and a new mark of 156+ for Bravemansgame is slightly higher than he was rated going in. Ahoy Senor is back down to his hurdle mark of 152.

    While it is obvious that Bravemansgame is open to further improvement, at the minute I have the front two from Leopardstown’s equivalent Grade 1, Fury Road and Run Wild Fred, rated higher. Contrary to popular belief, this doesn’t mean I believe that this is the ‘true picture’ of events. What itdoes mean is that I believe their performances so far are evidentially stronger taking all things into account. Bravemansgame or others may well progress through the ranks to be top dog by seasons end. Run Wild Fred was already 158 following his runaway handicap success at Navan in November but had to play second best and was quite a few pounds below that at Leopardstown. Fury Road was having only his third fencing start and has quickly found a high level of form. He came through smoothly to take the lead from his stable companion and forged well clear to post a figure of 160+.

    Festive cheer once more for Epatante

    A second success for Epatante in Kempton’s Grade 1 Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle didn’t tell us a great deal more as regards her claims of reclaiming the Champion Hurdle, and if anything the race was a further demonstration that the cupboard is pretty bare at the top of the 2m hurdling division on this side of the Irish Sea, writes Andrew Mealor…

    Five went to post for Christmas Hurdle, but only Epatante and Not So Sleepy (the pair who had dead-heated in the Fighting Fifth last month) were rated 150 or above pre-race, and with the latter clearly not in the same form as at Newcastle (in trouble turning in and finished last of the quintet), Epatante had a pretty simple task as it turned out in beating handicappers Glory and Fortune and Soaring Glory. The margin of victory was only a couple of lengths but she did was what needed and was four lengths clear for much of the run-in before probably idling late on.

    Historical standards suggest a figure around 150 for Epatante’s performance but this very much looks a below-par renewal, especially considering the proximity of Glory And Fortune who was the lowest rated of the quintet on 140 coming in. As such, I have taken a more conservative view of proceedings and have Epatante running to a figure of just 141+ in winning. That means a rise to 143 for Glory And Fortune, and he could be on that sort of figure on the form of his Welsh Champion Hurdle win back in October, when he beat subsequent Haydock winner Dans le Vent.


    A level a few lbs higher for the race could have been justified through third Soaring Glory (147), but defeats for Glory And Fortune off marks of 142 and 141 in handicaps on his previous couple of starts (albeit with possible excuses) suggest a lower view of his performance and the race as a whole is more realistic for the time being.

    Epatante remains on her pre-race rating of 153 (160 in effect in races against the males). Her Champion Hurdle claims were covered in the Fighting Fifth blog and the Christmas Hurdle didn’t alter the view that she’ll need to step up on the form she’s shown in the past two seasons if she’s to regain her crown.

    The Christmas Hurdle didn’t even produce the best performance in the 2m division domestically over the festive period. That honour went to Musselburgh’s Betway Hogmaneigh Handicap in which Tommy’s Oscar defied top weight and a mark of 150 pretty readily in scoring by six lengths from southern raider Christopher Wood, earning himself a rise to 156. Small-field graded events will present him with a different test (and opposition), with connections indicating Haydock’s Champion Hurdle Trial will be next, but he’s been very progressive so far this season and has more than earned his place.

    The other big race in the division over the festive period was the Grade 1 Coral Finale Hurdle for juveniles at Chepstow on Welsh National day.


    The Finale perhaps wasn’t as informative as might have been the case with the fancied pair of Forever Blessed (badly hampered) and Skycutter (keen in front and made a mistake three out) both ending up well beaten, plus they only jumped six of the usual eight hurdles with final flight in the home straight omitted on both circuits. However, it’s hard to knock Porticello who relished the emphasis on stamina in the conditions in running out an eight-and-a-half length winner from Saint Segal (keen and shaped well) and Forever William. He moves up 3 lb to 135, the same mark as his Summit Hurdle conqueror Knight Supreme. That’s a fairly conservative view of the race historically so there is scope for the level to move up in time if the form works out.

    In truth, this season’s juveniles haven’t looked a strong bunch thus far with the best of them domestically clustered in the mid-to-low 130s, and the clear standard setter in the division at this stage looks to be Gordon Elliott’s Fil Dor who maintained his unbeaten record over timber with a seven-length success in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. He doesn’t have a published mark in Ireland as yet but I have him on a provisional 142 as things stand.

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  10. #848
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    The 2022 Cheltenham Festival Handicappers Blog
    22 Mar 22

    The 2022 Boodles Gold Cup looked to be all about the Irish Challengers beforehand and so it proved, writes Martin Greenwood, though at least the GB contingent managed a third and a fifth from their five runners, Protektorat doing best of those despite ploughing through the last.

    Last season’s first two again dominated this time around but the positions were swapped in no uncertain manner. Minella Indo had been very low key hitherto in 2021/22 but probably ran his best race of the season. Having kicked on off what looked only a reasonable gallop turning in, he had them all in trouble at that point, including briefly A Plus Tard who was boxed in behind a wall of horses. However, A Plus Tard responded magnificently and surged up to join the leader at the last having got a run and simply sprinted clear in devasting fashion to put fifteen lengths between himself and Minella Indo by the line, leaving the strong impression there was plenty still in the tank.

    Minella Indo was probably better than the final result in that he pressed on and possibly did too much too soon, and he looked likely to beat the rest much further than he eventually managed. Galvin was the other major Irish fancy having beaten A Plus Tard at Leopardstown over Christmas but he was readily outpaced here and probably requires a better gallop and/or stronger test of stamina. Galvin’s pre-race rating of 168 remains, and it will be interesting to see if connections go down the Grand National route. Minella Indo’s rating is now 169, which is 6 lbs lower than his peak from a year ago.

    A Plus Tard’s new rating will be in a different parish to those two, however. While it is very probable this is a clear personal best, it is worth remembering his rout in the Betfair at Haydock earlier in the season could have been rated higher, and those two emphatic wins are only slightly tainted by his defeat at the hands of Galvin at Leopardstown in between. Average historic standards on the winner suggest somewhere in the mid-170s, which means everything else has run to low-to-mid 160s at best. Add to that the ease of victory and we are talking a new figure of 180, which is the best in the Gold Cup since Bobs Worth in 2013. Having passed his big exam with flying colours, it almost goes without saying that A Plus Tard will be top of the class for some time to come.

    Earlier in the week the best UK and Irish staying novices mainly manged to miss each other with basically all-Irish affairs in the NH Chase and Golden Miller, while the UK appeared to have the upper hand going into the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase on Wednesday. The heavy rain ruled out leading fancy Bravemansgame as well as Irish challenger Fury Road, but it still looked an interesting race nonetheless. L’Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor now headed the ratings with some unexposed Irish challengers not far behind in the embryonic pecking order.

    The GB-trained pair also headed the betting and they dominated for much of the race, duelling for the lead from the get-go. L’Homme Presse travelled powerfully throughout and jumped superbly, which is more than can be said about Ahoy Senor who continues to be let down by his jumping. The latter was shuffled a little down the pack due to fencing errors and it soon became apparent that L’Homme Presse’s main rival would be the equally strong-travelling Farouk D’Alene. However, while you can’t be certain as to what would definitely have happened, in my opinion the latter had just begun to come to the end of his tether when coming to grief at the second last.

    L’Homme Presse was never in any danger afterwards even though, to his immense credit, Ahoy Senor stayed on most strongly again from the last. The latter remains on his pre-race 157 and looks capable of making his mark in big staying handicap chases next season at the very least, as long as the jumping issues are sorted out. L’Homme Presse is now rated 164 (from 159) and proved his stamina after being campaigned over shorter distances previously – that rating is broadly in line with the best performances in this race in recent years. His jumping will stand him in good stead and he looks a very exciting prospect for the remainder of this season and beyond. Personal bests were also achieved by Gaillard du Mesnil (155) and Farouk D’Alene (157), the latter rated as if finishing alongside Ahoy Senor.

    Ryanair repeat for dominant Allaho

    Allaho produced one of the performances of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival with a scintillating twelve-length success in the Ryanair Chase and there was a certain sense of déjà vu in his successful defence of the race this time around, writes Michael Harris…

    In similar style to last year, it was a dominant front-running display and bar a minor error at the last fence, it was another superb performance to cement his place at the top of the two and a half mile chase division. In winning last year (174), Allaho produced the best performance in the history of this race, surpassing Vautour’s 173 figure from 2016. His 2022 effort looks every bit as good. In defeating Janidil (164) and Eldorado Allen (163 from 166), I have settled on a figure of 176 for Allaho. That currently makes him the joint-third highest-rated chaser in training, on a par with Chacun Pour Soi and behind only Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard (180) and Shishkin (177).

    Only four runners went to post for the Marsh Golden Miller Novices’ Chase, but it was one of the most intriguing clashes of the week with two of last year’s festival winners going head-to-head. Galopin des Champs had been very impressive on his two chase starts (already a Grade 1 winner) and went into the race as the highest rated novice chaser of the season on 164. Bob Olinger (160 from 161) looked his most formidable opponent to date but after a mistake four out he struggled to match Galopin des Champs and was well held before the unfortunate last fence incident for the leader. Even when left clear, it looked fairly hard work for Bob Olinger on the run to the line and all things considered I don’t think he was able to show his true form on the day. I have him running to 155 and have credited Galopin des Champs with a figure of 169. That cements the latter’s position as the leading novice chaser of the season, 5 lb clear of fellow Grade 1 winners L’Homme Presse and Bravemansgame (both 164). He’s clearly a very exciting prospect for the future.

    Champion Chase anti-climax

    The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase was the feature race on day two of the Festival and it had the makings of being the race of the week with the three leading performers of the season at that stage all lining up – Shishkin headed the pecking order with an official rating of 177, followed by Chacun Pour Soi (176) and Energumene (175), writes Chris Nash…

    However, it was a day of heavy rain and rapidly softening ground and those conditions seemingly took their toll on Shishkin as he never travelled with any fluency and was pulled up around halfway. Shortly after his exit Chacun Pour Soi, who was lobbing along in front, departed, which left Energumene with a much easier task than looked likely three minutes earlier. He made absolutely no mistake, travelling into contention smoothly to lead jumping two out and coming clear up the hill for hands and heels only. At the line he was eight and a half lengths clear of Funambule Sivola, with a further four and a half lengths back to Envoi Allen in third.

    The last ten winners of this race ran figures ranging from 167 to 188 and they averaged out at 172, and applying race standards to the contest also gave a figure of 172 for the winner. That looked a perfectly good fit, so I have Energumene running a bare figure of 172+ on the day with any upgrade for the style and ease of his victory catered for in his pre-race rating of 175, which remains unchanged. That has Funambule Sivola running a figure of 163 which rates a career best – he has been quietly progressive through the season so this further step forward is easily justifiable. Envoi Allen recorded a figure of 159 in third. He arrived here rated 161 in Ireland so has largely run his race. Connections of Shishkin reported that his performance was entirely ground related and that there is a chance of him running at Aintree, whilst Chacun Pour Soi and Energumene may well head to Punchestown, where both were successful last year.

    The Sporting Life Arkle was run on the first day of the meeting, so on plenty quicker ground than the Champion Chase, a fact highlighted by the novices running a time fifteen seconds faster. The leader, Magic Daze, bowled along keenly and set a reasonable tempo – the race time dipped under standard and the contest looked a fair enough test. Edwardstone went into the race the top-rated at 159 and justified that position with a commanding victory, coming home four and a half lengths clear of Gabynako, with another three and a half lengths back to Blue Lord in third.

    The last ten winners of this contest range from 159 to 169 and average out at 163, and race standards produced a figure of 160 for the winner. That looked a perfectly viable level for the race so I have Edwardstone running a figure of 160+ and the decisive nature of his victory meant I was happy to upgrade him slightly from that figure and allocate him a revised rating of 161. Gabynako ran a career best of 155 in second – he was supplemented for this race and fully justified that decision. Blue Lord records a figure of 152 – he’d won a Grade 1 novice at the Dublin Racing Festival last time out but failed to match that performance here. The 2m novice division might not be as deep as it has been in some years but there is absolutely no doubt that Edwardstone deserves his position at the top of the pile. He has been openly campaigned with this being his sixth run of the season and has won every time he has completed, the Arkle his fourth consecutive Graded race win.

    A showdown for the ages?

    Honeysuckle retaining her Champion Hurdle crown was supposed to be the headline act on day one of the 2022 Festival but new kid on the block Constitution Hill did his best to steal her thunder with a top-class effort in the Supreme, whetting the appetite for a potential showdown between the pair at Punchestown in six weeks’ time, writes Andrew Mealor

    The Unibet Champion Hurdle was largely about going over old ground for Honeysuckle, with last year’s Supreme winner Appreciate It the only new rival amongst her realistic challengers. She was more workmanlike then when storming home twelve months ago but still ran out a clear-cut winner and once again showed she is the dominant force amongst the established two milers.

    Rated 165 after last year’s Champion Hurdle, Honeysuckle hadn’t needed to match that level for her two wins in Ireland earlier in the campaign, latterly a six-and-a-half length defeat of Zanahiyr in the Irish Champion Hurdle, and it was a similar story at Cheltenham. Zanahiyr finished a bit closer to the mare this time, four a half lengths back in third, with the pair split by Epatante, the 2020 winner who went one better than when third last year.

    Given those rivals finished closer to Honeysuckle than in previous meetings, allied to a relatively bunched finish overall with just over nine lengths covering the first seven home, it’s hard to rate the Champion Hurdle form highly, and in truth the race wasn’t run in a manner conducive to achieving a high rating.

    A winning figure of 158+ for Honeysuckle ties in with the ratings awarded to Epatante (154) and fifth-place Saint Roi (156) in last season’s Anglo-Irish Classification, and also has Zanahiyr (159) running up to his best – with both Honeysuckle and Epatante in receipt of the 7 lb mares allowance, Zanahiyr actually comes out as narrowly the best horse at the weights in the Champion Hurdle, though Honeysuckle retains her higher handicap mark of 165.

    Though Honeysuckle hasn’t needed to reproduce her very best form so far in 2021/22, that’s not to say she still doesn’t have that sort of performance in her locker, and she may well need that form and potentially more if the clash with Constitution Hill does materialise, such was the impression Nicky Henderson’s charge made in the Sky Bet Supreme.

    A twenty-two length win on its own in what looked a strong renewal beforehand would get the pulse racing, but the evidence on the clock further underlines the merit of Constitution Hill’s performance, albeit in a race that was set up perfectly for a top horse to run a fast time.

    With the free-going Dysart Dynamo pressed by Jonbon in front, the pace was strong from the outset, and as early as the second hurdle the Supreme field were already around 18 lengths ahead of their counterparts in the Champion Hurdle. That gap increased to around 26 lengths at the fourth before understandably starting to narrow in the second half of the race. Despite those early exertions, Constitution Hill was still able to run from two out to the line 1.2 seconds quicker than Honeysuckle managed off a steadier pace, and the overall time for the Supreme ended up 5.8 seconds quicker (around twenty-six lengths).

    Judged on time alone compared to the other races on the card, Constitution Hill could be rated in the mid-170s, so a form rating of 170 – underpinned by the previous form of the placed horses and historical standards applied to the result – may prove to be conservative. As it is, 170 is the highest rating for a novice over hurdles since the Anglo-Irish Jump Classifications were founded in 1999/2000, eclipsing the 168 rating awarded to Iris’s Gift after he finished second to Baracouda as a novice in the 2003 Stayers’ Hurdle.

    As things stand, Honeysuckle’s figure of 165 plus her 7 lb mares allowance gives her the edge on ratings over Constitution Hill, though that doesn’t factor in the latter’s scope for further improvement after just three starts, and I for one certainly wouldn’t back against him ending the mare’s unbeaten record if the clash does take place.

    A quick word for Supreme runner-up Jonbon who ran a good race in the circumstances on his first try in Grade 1 company. He’s been nudged up 2 lb to 147, though I fully expect him to better than rating under more favourable circumstances. The 2m Grade 1 novice at Aintree looks the logical next step for him provided the race doesn’t come too soon (finished tired).

    Another to put himself potentially in the frame for next year’s Champion Hurdle was Vauban who put his Flat background to good use in what turned into a speed test in the JCB Triumph Hurdle. An Irish whitewash was no great surprise with the GB juveniles looking a very average crop at best this season, and Vauban (151) proved much the best of the visiting party. The winning margin was only two and a half lengths, but the manner in which he picked up on the run-in having given Fil Dor and Pied Piper (both 145) a chance with a slow jump at the last was impressive and he looked to have a good bit in reserve.

    Vauban clearly has a lot of potential (both Flat and jumps), though his rating marks him down as only an average Triumph winner at this stage and the principals will have to progress significantly to become genuine Champion Hurdle contenders next season, especially with the likes of Honeysuckle and Constitution Hill around.

  11. #849
    Senior Member Perpetual's Avatar
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    The 2022 Cheltenham Festival Handicappers Blog
    22 Mar 22

    The 2022 Boodles Gold Cup looked to be all about the Irish Challengers beforehand and so it proved, writes Martin Greenwood, though at least the GB contingent managed a third and a fifth from their five runners, Protektorat doing best of those despite ploughing through the last.

    Last season’s first two again dominated this time around but the positions were swapped in no uncertain manner. Minella Indo had been very low key hitherto in 2021/22 but probably ran his best race of the season. Having kicked on off what looked only a reasonable gallop turning in, he had them all in trouble at that point, including briefly A Plus Tard who was boxed in behind a wall of horses. However, A Plus Tard responded magnificently and surged up to join the leader at the last having got a run and simply sprinted clear in devasting fashion to put fifteen lengths between himself and Minella Indo by the line, leaving the strong impression there was plenty still in the tank.

    Minella Indo was probably better than the final result in that he pressed on and possibly did too much too soon, and he looked likely to beat the rest much further than he eventually managed. Galvin was the other major Irish fancy having beaten A Plus Tard at Leopardstown over Christmas but he was readily outpaced here and probably requires a better gallop and/or stronger test of stamina. Galvin’s pre-race rating of 168 remains, and it will be interesting to see if connections go down the Grand National route. Minella Indo’s rating is now 169, which is 6 lbs lower than his peak from a year ago.

    A Plus Tard’s new rating will be in a different parish to those two, however. While it is very probable this is a clear personal best, it is worth remembering his rout in the Betfair at Haydock earlier in the season could have been rated higher, and those two emphatic wins are only slightly tainted by his defeat at the hands of Galvin at Leopardstown in between. Average historic standards on the winner suggest somewhere in the mid-170s, which means everything else has run to low-to-mid 160s at best. Add to that the ease of victory and we are talking a new figure of 180, which is the best in the Gold Cup since Bobs Worth in 2013. Having passed his big exam with flying colours, it almost goes without saying that A Plus Tard will be top of the class for some time to come.

    Earlier in the week the best UK and Irish staying novices mainly manged to miss each other with basically all-Irish affairs in the NH Chase and Golden Miller, while the UK appeared to have the upper hand going into the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase on Wednesday. The heavy rain ruled out leading fancy Bravemansgame as well as Irish challenger Fury Road, but it still looked an interesting race nonetheless. L’Homme Presse and Ahoy Senor now headed the ratings with some unexposed Irish challengers not far behind in the embryonic pecking order.

    The GB-trained pair also headed the betting and they dominated for much of the race, duelling for the lead from the get-go. L’Homme Presse travelled powerfully throughout and jumped superbly, which is more than can be said about Ahoy Senor who continues to be let down by his jumping. The latter was shuffled a little down the pack due to fencing errors and it soon became apparent that L’Homme Presse’s main rival would be the equally strong-travelling Farouk D’Alene. However, while you can’t be certain as to what would definitely have happened, in my opinion the latter had just begun to come to the end of his tether when coming to grief at the second last.

    L’Homme Presse was never in any danger afterwards even though, to his immense credit, Ahoy Senor stayed on most strongly again from the last. The latter remains on his pre-race 157 and looks capable of making his mark in big staying handicap chases next season at the very least, as long as the jumping issues are sorted out. L’Homme Presse is now rated 164 (from 159) and proved his stamina after being campaigned over shorter distances previously – that rating is broadly in line with the best performances in this race in recent years. His jumping will stand him in good stead and he looks a very exciting prospect for the remainder of this season and beyond. Personal bests were also achieved by Gaillard du Mesnil (155) and Farouk D’Alene (157), the latter rated as if finishing alongside Ahoy Senor.

    Ryanair repeat for dominant Allaho

    Allaho produced one of the performances of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival with a scintillating twelve-length success in the Ryanair Chase and there was a certain sense of déjà vu in his successful defence of the race this time around, writes Michael Harris…

    In similar style to last year, it was a dominant front-running display and bar a minor error at the last fence, it was another superb performance to cement his place at the top of the two and a half mile chase division. In winning last year (174), Allaho produced the best performance in the history of this race, surpassing Vautour’s 173 figure from 2016. His 2022 effort looks every bit as good. In defeating Janidil (164) and Eldorado Allen (163 from 166), I have settled on a figure of 176 for Allaho. That currently makes him the joint-third highest-rated chaser in training, on a par with Chacun Pour Soi and behind only Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard (180) and Shishkin (177).

    Only four runners went to post for the Marsh Golden Miller Novices’ Chase, but it was one of the most intriguing clashes of the week with two of last year’s festival winners going head-to-head. Galopin des Champs had been very impressive on his two chase starts (already a Grade 1 winner) and went into the race as the highest rated novice chaser of the season on 164. Bob Olinger (160 from 161) looked his most formidable opponent to date but after a mistake four out he struggled to match Galopin des Champs and was well held before the unfortunate last fence incident for the leader. Even when left clear, it looked fairly hard work for Bob Olinger on the run to the line and all things considered I don’t think he was able to show his true form on the day. I have him running to 155 and have credited Galopin des Champs with a figure of 169. That cements the latter’s position as the leading novice chaser of the season, 5 lb clear of fellow Grade 1 winners L’Homme Presse and Bravemansgame (both 164). He’s clearly a very exciting prospect for the future.

    Champion Chase anti-climax

    The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase was the feature race on day two of the Festival and it had the makings of being the race of the week with the three leading performers of the season at that stage all lining up – Shishkin headed the pecking order with an official rating of 177, followed by Chacun Pour Soi (176) and Energumene (175), writes Chris Nash…

    However, it was a day of heavy rain and rapidly softening ground and those conditions seemingly took their toll on Shishkin as he never travelled with any fluency and was pulled up around halfway. Shortly after his exit Chacun Pour Soi, who was lobbing along in front, departed, which left Energumene with a much easier task than looked likely three minutes earlier. He made absolutely no mistake, travelling into contention smoothly to lead jumping two out and coming clear up the hill for hands and heels only. At the line he was eight and a half lengths clear of Funambule Sivola, with a further four and a half lengths back to Envoi Allen in third.

    The last ten winners of this race ran figures ranging from 167 to 188 and they averaged out at 172, and applying race standards to the contest also gave a figure of 172 for the winner. That looked a perfectly good fit, so I have Energumene running a bare figure of 172+ on the day with any upgrade for the style and ease of his victory catered for in his pre-race rating of 175, which remains unchanged. That has Funambule Sivola running a figure of 163 which rates a career best – he has been quietly progressive through the season so this further step forward is easily justifiable. Envoi Allen recorded a figure of 159 in third. He arrived here rated 161 in Ireland so has largely run his race. Connections of Shishkin reported that his performance was entirely ground related and that there is a chance of him running at Aintree, whilst Chacun Pour Soi and Energumene may well head to Punchestown, where both were successful last year.

    The Sporting Life Arkle was run on the first day of the meeting, so on plenty quicker ground than the Champion Chase, a fact highlighted by the novices running a time fifteen seconds faster. The leader, Magic Daze, bowled along keenly and set a reasonable tempo – the race time dipped under standard and the contest looked a fair enough test. Edwardstone went into the race the top-rated at 159 and justified that position with a commanding victory, coming home four and a half lengths clear of Gabynako, with another three and a half lengths back to Blue Lord in third.

    The last ten winners of this contest range from 159 to 169 and average out at 163, and race standards produced a figure of 160 for the winner. That looked a perfectly viable level for the race so I have Edwardstone running a figure of 160+ and the decisive nature of his victory meant I was happy to upgrade him slightly from that figure and allocate him a revised rating of 161. Gabynako ran a career best of 155 in second – he was supplemented for this race and fully justified that decision. Blue Lord records a figure of 152 – he’d won a Grade 1 novice at the Dublin Racing Festival last time out but failed to match that performance here. The 2m novice division might not be as deep as it has been in some years but there is absolutely no doubt that Edwardstone deserves his position at the top of the pile. He has been openly campaigned with this being his sixth run of the season and has won every time he has completed, the Arkle his fourth consecutive Graded race win.

    A showdown for the ages?

    Honeysuckle retaining her Champion Hurdle crown was supposed to be the headline act on day one of the 2022 Festival but new kid on the block Constitution Hill did his best to steal her thunder with a top-class effort in the Supreme, whetting the appetite for a potential showdown between the pair at Punchestown in six weeks’ time, writes Andrew Mealor

    The Unibet Champion Hurdle was largely about going over old ground for Honeysuckle, with last year’s Supreme winner Appreciate It the only new rival amongst her realistic challengers. She was more workmanlike then when storming home twelve months ago but still ran out a clear-cut winner and once again showed she is the dominant force amongst the established two milers.

    Rated 165 after last year’s Champion Hurdle, Honeysuckle hadn’t needed to match that level for her two wins in Ireland earlier in the campaign, latterly a six-and-a-half length defeat of Zanahiyr in the Irish Champion Hurdle, and it was a similar story at Cheltenham. Zanahiyr finished a bit closer to the mare this time, four a half lengths back in third, with the pair split by Epatante, the 2020 winner who went one better than when third last year.

    Given those rivals finished closer to Honeysuckle than in previous meetings, allied to a relatively bunched finish overall with just over nine lengths covering the first seven home, it’s hard to rate the Champion Hurdle form highly, and in truth the race wasn’t run in a manner conducive to achieving a high rating.

    A winning figure of 158+ for Honeysuckle ties in with the ratings awarded to Epatante (154) and fifth-place Saint Roi (156) in last season’s Anglo-Irish Classification, and also has Zanahiyr (159) running up to his best – with both Honeysuckle and Epatante in receipt of the 7 lb mares allowance, Zanahiyr actually comes out as narrowly the best horse at the weights in the Champion Hurdle, though Honeysuckle retains her higher handicap mark of 165.

    Though Honeysuckle hasn’t needed to reproduce her very best form so far in 2021/22, that’s not to say she still doesn’t have that sort of performance in her locker, and she may well need that form and potentially more if the clash with Constitution Hill does materialise, such was the impression Nicky Henderson’s charge made in the Sky Bet Supreme.

    A twenty-two length win on its own in what looked a strong renewal beforehand would get the pulse racing, but the evidence on the clock further underlines the merit of Constitution Hill’s performance, albeit in a race that was set up perfectly for a top horse to run a fast time.

    With the free-going Dysart Dynamo pressed by Jonbon in front, the pace was strong from the outset, and as early as the second hurdle the Supreme field were already around 18 lengths ahead of their counterparts in the Champion Hurdle. That gap increased to around 26 lengths at the fourth before understandably starting to narrow in the second half of the race. Despite those early exertions, Constitution Hill was still able to run from two out to the line 1.2 seconds quicker than Honeysuckle managed off a steadier pace, and the overall time for the Supreme ended up 5.8 seconds quicker (around twenty-six lengths).

    Judged on time alone compared to the other races on the card, Constitution Hill could be rated in the mid-170s, so a form rating of 170 – underpinned by the previous form of the placed horses and historical standards applied to the result – may prove to be conservative. As it is, 170 is the highest rating for a novice over hurdles since the Anglo-Irish Jump Classifications were founded in 1999/2000, eclipsing the 168 rating awarded to Iris’s Gift after he finished second to Baracouda as a novice in the 2003 Stayers’ Hurdle.

    As things stand, Honeysuckle’s figure of 165 plus her 7 lb mares allowance gives her the edge on ratings over Constitution Hill, though that doesn’t factor in the latter’s scope for further improvement after just three starts, and I for one certainly wouldn’t back against him ending the mare’s unbeaten record if the clash does take place.

    A quick word for Supreme runner-up Jonbon who ran a good race in the circumstances on his first try in Grade 1 company. He’s been nudged up 2 lb to 147, though I fully expect him to better than rating under more favourable circumstances. The 2m Grade 1 novice at Aintree looks the logical next step for him provided the race doesn’t come too soon (finished tired).

    Another to put himself potentially in the frame for next year’s Champion Hurdle was Vauban who put his Flat background to good use in what turned into a speed test in the JCB Triumph Hurdle. An Irish whitewash was no great surprise with the GB juveniles looking a very average crop at best this season, and Vauban (151) proved much the best of the visiting party. The winning margin was only two and a half lengths, but the manner in which he picked up on the run-in having given Fil Dor and Pied Piper (both 145) a chance with a slow jump at the last was impressive and he looked to have a good bit in reserve.

    Vauban clearly has a lot of potential (both Flat and jumps), though his rating marks him down as only an average Triumph winner at this stage and the principals will have to progress significantly to become genuine Champion Hurdle contenders next season, especially with the likes of Honeysuckle and Constitution Hill around.

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  13. #850
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    Back in september MINELLA TRUMPrated 127,up 2lb for a win beat HEWICK half a lenght rated 137 (7) so got 3lb.
    Minella trump got put up to 130
    130 1st
    135 1st
    135 1st
    136 1st
    140 2nd and runs again tomorrow off 140.
    So up a total of 15lb for winning 6 races and £40,000

    Hewick then won a hurdle off 118 and 2nd in a hurdle off 127.
    Then he went to sedgefield where the hcapper gave it a 5lb rise for being beat by MT who went up only 3.
    He never looked like getting beat,it wasnt the best of races although at least 2 came out and won.(7lb claimer)
    He got put 8lb for that to 150.
    so he won one race whereas MT has won 4 since yet hewick is a lb better off if they met tomorrow.but if claims are took into it hewick would be 3lb worse off.
    Is Hewick an improving young horse or has the hcapper over reacted.

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    Double post
    Last edited by Outsider; 21st April 2022 at 10:28 PM.

  15. #852
    Senior Member G-G's Avatar
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    Wasn't really sure where to put this and didn't want to start a thread but need to ask a silly question:
    BBB due to run Friday, rated 144 has 11 7 at the mo. Top horse in the race is rated 151 so has 12 stone, but why is it 12, and not 11 12 when it's an 'premier' handicap?
    Can any one help please? Dreading top 2 dropping out and he would end up with 12 stone to lump on come back and giving loads as it is on 11 7.
    Thank you.
    Vote Alfie!!!!

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    Senior Member Desert Orchid's Avatar
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    I can't answer the question, G-G, but I've noticed myself a number of handicaps with the 12-0 ceiling.
    Illegitimi non carborundum


  17. #854
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    The top one has stayed in so he has 11 7 which is a slight relief. Bit surprised he's not being tipped as CD winner more than once but my friend who backs him religiously ( well I do for her as she can't manage her Paddypower account ) is more than pleased that one side saying 7/1 with 6 opponents. Never stopped him either so all things crossed. Hopefully not all the forecasted rain will turn up. A bit yes, but not all of it.
    Vote Alfie!!!!

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