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Thread: Daily picks.

  1. #121
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    Unfortuanately fella there are no short cuts,i have to look at every horse in every race old fashioned hours in the form book and watching replays,looking for non triers and unlucky runners etc.The big thing thats disappeared are draw advantages so things are twice as hard as they used to be twenty years ago when lots of tracks you could back horses hard against the running rails and 9/10 you'd be hitting the winners with fcasts etc.So now instead of putting a line through half the fields you have to go through every runner apart from a few tracks.
    The one big edge i have early season is using times from the 2yr old maidens,which is good but obviously only covers a small% of overall turnover.
    Also a large % of my turnover is on ppots,even with the take out the bet is still worth doing and doing every race and double checking every runner you can sometimes see handicaps where the whole field will have to go in.My biggest win has actually come from ppots when i could keep them out of the pool,would be great if they didn't go in the pool especially when the aw starts.It's not a rariety for me to have 12-15% of the winning tickets on some of the aw meetings as i can have up to£1500 on any one perm.
    What i need is someone to lay me the bet without the takeout!!!
    A large % of my bets i will be betting two in a race ew,unless there's something outstanding.I also keep track of all times of all the maiden races on the aw,similar to the 2yr olds which when you get used to standard times etc you instantly know something thats going to be well handicapped.
    I could go on for ever there are 101 things i look for,but in the main its really
    down to prices and despite what most punters think the aw is the best betting medium by a mile.You can put a line through 3/4 of the runners in most races and you can find distinct draw advantages which last for several weeks,front runners etc or the opposite.As long as you're watching every meeting they can be easy to pick up on,lots of mythology surrounds lingfield for example as well not suiting front runners.At a certain point during the aw season the track will revert to suiting front runners,its always happened despite what some stats boys might tell you and regarding stall 1!!!

  2. #122
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    Good stuff gigilo, thanks for that
    Some people say he’s the best since Arkle and that’s certainly true when you look at what he’s done

  3. #123
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    15:15 Newmarket, 6 Aug 20117f
    german-thoroughbred.com Sweet Solera Stakes (Fillies' Group 3) (Class 1) (2YO only)
    Winner £25,520 - 9 ran
    Good


    Weighed In

    Result Future Form Pos Dist. Silk Cloth / Horse Name (Draw) SP Age / Wt Jockey / Trainer OR
    1 3. Discourse (USA) (5) 5/2 Fav 2 8 - 12 L Dettori
    M Al Zarooni
    -
    keen early tracked leaders, smooth headway over 1f out, led entering final furlong, ran on, impressive
    2 4½ 8. Lily's Angel (IRE) (7) 7/1 2 8 - 12 T Hamilton
    R A Fahey
    96
    held up, ridden over 2f out, headway over 1f out, stayed on to chase easy winner inside final furlong
    3 1¼ 7. Kinetica (8) 4/1 J2Fav 2 8 - 12 S Sanders
    Sir Mark Prescott
    98
    led, ridden 2f out, headed entering final furlong, kept on one pace
    4 4 2. Desert Gazelle (USA) (2) 4/1 J2Fav 2 8 - 12 J P Spencer
    S bin Suroor
    -
    dwelt and hampered start, held up in rear, switched left over 2f out, headway approaching final furlong, kept on near finish
    5 5 10. Wahylah (IRE) (9) 66/1 2 8 - 12 P Robinson
    C E Brittain
    -
    in touch, ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace from over 1f out
    6 2¾ 5. Hawfinch (11) 25/1 2 8 - 12 R Havlin
    J H M Gosden
    88
    in rear, ridden over 2f out, never on terms
    7 3 11. Zingana (1) 33/1 2 8 - 12 D Sweeney
    Eve Johnson Houghton
    -
    went left start mid-division, outpaced 2f out
    8 2¾ 6. Illaunglass (IRE) (4) 5/1 2 8 - 12 J Fortune
    J Noseda
    99
    tracked leader until ridden over 2f out, eased final furlong
    9 10 4. Golden Valley

    I backed discourse at decent prices after this race for the guineas,the fastest run this season taking into account that it couldv'e won another 5ls.I've also backed
    lyric of light at bigger prices as well,the donny run was the only race to go under standard all week apart from one sprint!!!!
    Last edited by gigilo; 18th October 2011 at 9:28 PM.

  4. #124
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    Looking for love 22/1.

    Lots of horses looking overpriced tonight at wolves looking at the times of races but just for the time being will put this one up.A reasonable time on 1st of october and only just behind the fav in the 8.50 tonight one of twins the race being run in 2m.0.17.Will be very surprised if there's no money for this as the standard time of that race was as quick as anything in this race has run here.

    1pt trade 22/1 victor
    .05ptew

  5. #125
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    Yellow printer 7/1 sjames,lads,hills.

    Yellow printer went under 2ms which doesn't happen often in this grade,although the track has been riding quick.Last time out running 4th to arkaim beaten 2 1/4ls the time of the race 1.59.48 also finshing in 5th was cathcart castle recent winner and had the fav one of twins in tonights race behind which also makes the 7s look overpriced.The favs drifting in this race so may also be a bit of value as well at 9/2 as these two on the clock if they repeat their recent runs look the two that stand out.I may even put in valley tiger and princess gail for tricasts if the prices permit.

    1pt trade yellow printer
    .05ptew

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    Yellow printer 7/1 sjames,lads,hills.

    Yellow printer went under 2ms which doesn't happen often in this grade,although the track has been riding quick.Last time out running 4th to arkaim beaten 2 1/4ls the time of the race 1.59.48 also finshing in 5th was cathcart castle recent winner and had the fav one of twins in tonights race behind which also makes the 7s look overpriced.The favs drifting in this race so may also be a bit of value as well at 9/2 as these two on the clock if they repeat their recent runs look the two that stand out.I may even put in valley tiger and princess gail for tricasts if the prices permit.

    1pt trade yellow printer out at 5.5 and the tricast as above 122.23
    .05ptew

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    Looking for love 22/1.

    Lots of horses looking overpriced tonight at wolves looking at the times of races but just for the time being will put this one up.A reasonable time on 1st of october and only just behind the fav in the 8.50 tonight one of twins the race being run in 2m.0.17.Will be very surprised if there's no money for this as the standard time of that race was as quick as anything in this race has run here.

    1pt trade 22/1 victor out at 18.5
    .05ptew

  8. #128
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    Kingaroo 1pt trade 12/1 365 0.05ptew may even be bigger with some other firms only 3 books up.Ppower may go 14s will back it again if they open 12s or bigger.

    1pt trade 12/1 365
    .05ptew

    On his day kingaroos capable of winning this from the front,c/d record is 3/6 and been second off this mark the last two runs here,his last run second to beau fighter has gone onto win off 67 in a far better race than this that day it was another 8ls back to the third trachonitus running off 69.The penultimate run over c/d again second off this mark and having horses rated in the 70s behind.On previous runs over c/d last season had amazing bluesky priced up at 15/2 in todays race unsighted on their two meetings,if he runs to his best 12s is to big.The obvious danger looks the ellison horse hurdle mark 151 and last run on the flat won by 11ls over 1m2fs,the other runners although some are lightly raced have yet to run on the surface or either have run in or won in slow times on the surface.If punters look beyond its turf form i expect kingaroo to be backed as its overall profile is quite consistent and at least should be a trade out of it,i don't bet in running but for anyone that does should be a decent back to lay.
    Last edited by gigilo; 23rd October 2011 at 8:12 PM.

  9. #129
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    1pt trade lady del sol 10/1 hills.

    Won't be backing this as a single as i rarely bet at redcar,but there maybe a good chance this will be backed,lady del sol is off all time low mark tmorrow with challenor taking off 5 is only on a mark of 55,yet started the season on 75.She actually is a bit of a redcar specialist 7 runs and won twice over the c/d 1/3/4,likes good or fast ground and that maybe decides whether she's backed or not as the grounds not a definite thats why i can't have a single.Perhaps if the times show its not on the slow side i may have an ew bet later in the day,five runs back she was third off 66 beaten 2 3/4ls by lizzie that form was franked yesterday when lizzie was third of seventeen to teds brother in a far better race than todays.The second from that race caranbola has won twice since the last off 76 and the fourth behind lady del sol,cool in the shade recieving 12 pounds recently won off 68,on that form lady del sol would head of the market so will be very interesting to see which way she goes in the market.I wouldn't normally look at a redcar card but i will be keeping note and watching closely as she is extremely well in on that form and if drifts in the betting will be backing her for the rest of the season when the grounds right etc as she looks on a mark that should be a formality
    Last edited by gigilo; 24th October 2011 at 12:05 AM.

  10. #130
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    Drifting like a barge kingaroo so going to have two 1pt trades in the same race boy the bell 9/4 and cotehill lass.They look like they will be massively overbet especially with ellison and evans training.

    1pt trade boy the bell 9/4 tote,bet,stan,lads
    1pt trade cotehill lass 4/1 sbet,bluesquare,totesport.

  11. #131
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    Missed the prices but gracies gift was different class to these last season there's still 7s with boyles and sporting bet 1pt trade could go off fav.
    The one thats massively overpriced is scruffy skip and is a stone in with some of these on last years form,will keep an eye out on betfair to see if there's any massive prices.

    1pt trade gracies gift 7/1 boyles,sporting bet.

  12. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    Kingaroo 1pt trade 12/1 365 0.05ptew may even be bigger with some other firms only 3 books up.Ppower may go 14s will back it again if they open 12s or bigger.

    1pt trade 12/1 365 Out at 19s the prices were very sus and pulls up!!!Plus the fav won as in write up.
    .05ptew

    On his day kingaroos capable of winning this from the front,c/d record is 3/6 and been second off this mark the last two runs here,his last run second to beau fighter has gone onto win off 67 in a far better race than this that day it was another 8ls back to the third trachonitus running off 69.The penultimate run over c/d again second off this mark and having horses rated in the 70s behind.On previous runs over c/d last season had amazing bluesky priced up at 15/2 in todays race unsighted on their two meetings,if he runs to his best 12s is to big.The obvious danger looks the ellison horse hurdle mark 151 and last run on the flat won by 11ls over 1m2fs,the other runners although some are lightly raced have yet to run on the surface or either have run in or won in slow times on the surface.If punters look beyond its turf form i expect kingaroo to be backed as its overall profile is quite consistent and at least should be a trade out of it,i don't bet in running but for anyone that does should be a decent back to lay.

  13. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    1pt trade lady del sol 10/1 hills.

    Won't be backing this as a single as i rarely bet at redcar,but there maybe a good chance this will be backed,lady del sol is off all time low mark tmorrow with challenor taking off 5 is only on a mark of 55,yet started the season on 75.She actually is a bit of a redcar specialist 7 runs and won twice over the c/d 1/3/4,likes good or fast ground and that maybe decides whether she's backed or not as the grounds not a definite thats why i can't have a single.Perhaps if the times show its not on the slow side i may have an ew bet later in the day,five runs back she was third off 66 beaten 2 3/4ls by lizzie that form was franked yesterday when lizzie was third of seventeen to teds brother in a far better race than todays.The second from that race caranbola has won twice since the last off 76 and the fourth behind lady del sol,cool in the shade recieving 12 pounds recently won off 68,on that form lady del sol would head of the market so will be very interesting to see which way she goes in the market.I wouldn't normally look at a redcar card but i will be keeping note and watching closely as she is extremely well in on that form and if drifts in the betting will be backing her for the rest of the season when the grounds right etc as she looks on a mark that should be a formality
    Out at 8s

  14. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    Drifting like a barge kingaroo so going to have two 1pt trades in the same race boy the bell 9/4 and cotehill lass.They look like they will be massively overbet especially with ellison and evans training.

    1pt trade boy the bell 9/4 tote,bet,stan,lads Out at 3
    1pt trade cotehill lass 4/1 sbet,bluesquare,totesport.
    Out at 3.7

  15. #135
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    Missed the prices but gracies gift was different class to these last season there's still 7s with boyles and sporting bet 1pt trade could go off fav.
    The one thats massively overpriced is scruffy skip and is a stone in with some of these on last years form,will keep an eye out on betfair to see if there's any massive prices.

    1pt trade gracies gift 7/1 boyles,sporting bet.
    Out at 9 a winning day despit a couple of drifters!!!

  16. #136
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    7.35 kempton 1pt trade three am tour 6/1 365
    1pt trade gassin golf 5/1 ppower

  17. #137
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    Most of the runners in the race have run on poly,so there's a few comparisons to make.The prescott horse could be reasonably well handicapped being 5ls infront of 67 rated horse on debut and with improvement on top of that 77 looks fairly lenient,the race on debut was run in 1m39.40 not that quick but was a flip start and a virtual standing start for a furlong.The hannon horse in contrast ran a fairly decent time on debut at wolves 1m28.54 and with improvement to come on top,ran in a sales race at fairyhouse finishing 4th of 18 the 7th quick bite ran well in a decent nursery on saturday at donny so form also looks decent.They are all so lightly raced but just on times on the surface so far think its safer to back the two to trade as they look like they should be the two at the front of the market,hopefully one will return a reasonable profit with at least the other returning stake

  18. #138
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    A losing day even though i avoided the huge drift on hannon horse and traded out for a small profit as it was trading shorter for most of the day,6.6 and 7.0 the prescott horse.If i'd been around for the race i probably wouldv'e backed the hannon horse with that drift as the markets can produce huge drifters that win on the aw.Will check the race out later as i havn't seen it yet!!

  19. #139
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    .50pt trade trovare 20/1 365. Looks massive.

  20. #140
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    Trovare has the best form in the race and also sits on an all time low mark of 81,the doubt is whether the horse stays a true run 2mile.Even so 20/1 looks huge on previous form,a third off 82 to yourgonnabelucky over the same track over 1m6fs is by far the best piece of any form in this race.That particular race staying on and looking as though 2miles wasn't beyond it,has run again over 1m6fs and even though beaten over 7ls that form has been franked by veiled and gifted leader.In a race where it is dropping in grade i can see this going off nearer 10s than the 20s and making this hopefully a nice trade.

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