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Thread: Daily picks.

  1. #10221
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    AW 3yr old final

    Red impression 9/4 lads

    Red impression on only second ever run breaking the 2yr old track record at lingfield 1m9.76 a decent time for any age group, but won with ease you could probably shave another half a second off that time with ease of win and that would not put him too far behind the older horses contesting on finals day Kachy etc...I was waiting too see it priced up as originally i liked the first three in betting mubakker,concierge and san donato all having won easily on the aw in decent times,they may well be as good as red impression yet but can only go on what's been done so far and you have to presume red impressions going to improve.Any sort of improvement this makes this a top class aw horse,done it on the clock and the track so although 9/4 looks short with finals day long way off,it's going to take something very good to beat it,maybe worth keeping an eyeout for bigger prices yet only a couple of books up you may see 3/1 in the next week,thats what i was hoping to see ...Thats four ante post bets for finals day,as mentioned previously it's obviously a risk wether they run or not,but if they look the best horses on the clock then you have to do them..
    Last edited by gigilo; 28th November 2018 at 2:58 AM.

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  3. #10222
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    Couple of very competitve cards again,i try to avoid newcastle as the races are such a farce but have a couple marked off so small stakes and a small multiple..

    Newcastle 6.45

    Suwaan 9/1 365 7/1 lads/victor/unibetsportsbook/ppower./ 8/1 betbright / Manshood 8/1 365/sportsbook/ppower/skybet

    Manshood was cantering two races back over this c/d in a 0-80 don't think they went very quick and couldn't get a run whole field finished in a heap,that was only secomd ever run on the aw off 74,was unplaced next time out at notts so comes back here off a two pound lower martk..Was such a big eyecatcher in that race i can see this going off short,maybe 3/1 7/2 tops, am not sure horse is easy ride but has won on the turf off 81 so in thoery well in dropped into this 0-75,looks great trade or free bet in there.
    Suwaann ran on the same card as manshood in a far quicker time when third to outrage off 76,has been beaten three times since so gets to run back over the c/d off just 70,always looks vulnerable with style of running should trade shorter in running though,that division was over 3ls quicker,if taken at face value then obvious chance..Also that would bring in magic pulse and jan van hoof they weren't far behind suwaan masybe some forecasts..

    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!In goes the nap suwaan 4th as well so place money on that as well,thought it was going to be one of those days robbed on testa rossa out last no pace beaten a nck shouldv'e sluiced up,justice was served!!!!!Relentless!!!!

    3.45


    St peters basilica 3/1 lads/skybet/victor/corals generally drifting like a barge.10/30 marathonbet

    Am unsure of how good the other two market leaders form is,plus they are still open to improvement st peters basilica best run was last time out in a 0-85 handicap at donny off 74 now rated 76 out of galileo yet best run has been over this 6fs..on ratings and form they look pretty inseperable looks like its going to be first or second..

    5.15

    Testa rossa 10/1 365/sportsbook/ppower 11/1 skybet

    Testa rossa still been running well enough to figure in 0-75s,can be made to look very slow if there's no pace and that does happen here a lot thats what makes the races such a farce even though 5 pound above its last win here in september a 0-80 won in a good time,a recent 2nd to alfred richardson over c/d in this grade was respectable although small field...Inadequate trip last time out,if they go quick enough then obvious ew chances again even though exposed.

    5.45

    Kavora 7/1 sportsbook/ppower Letrightbedone 16/1 sportsbook/ppower/betfred/totesport 18/1 skybet

    Absolutely dire race a 0-50 over 7fs couldn't really rely on anything in this race to run the same race twice but at least the three old maiden kavora has run well here twice back to back even though 0/10, last time out although only 5th was on wrong side of track all the action with high draws so maybe can upgrade that from a 0-55.Previous run to that was second over tomorrows c./d in a 0-60 so possibly this surface will be best form...
    Letrightbedone is one that when you go through a race you usually put a line thriough it without looking at its form as has never run two races the same and its form is 4/66,probably no show again tomorrow but was 4th in the 0-60 that kavora was in although next time out was beaten 8ls here/...Realistically its going to bomb out,but race is so bad will give it a token chance it has a going day..

  4. #10223
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    Another couple of very competitive cards at swell and newcastle,nothing special at prices although another meeting for the notebook with loads of new runners...


    2.40

    Bond angel 5/1 365 11/2 skybet/lads/victor/corals/totesport/betfred 6/1 ppower/sportsbook

    Bond angel first time on fibresand winning a hands and heels appprentice race for horses rated upto 60,was a weak race but won by 8ls over the 7fs couldv'e been 12ls winning off 46 with 5 pound claim riding,tomorrow runs off 56 with gina mangan takling off 7 pound/..so still off 49.
    Tomorrows class is a 0-65 with lots that are capable in grade a very competitve race on paper,horses also like sultan barbers first time on fibresand chucked in and out of decent sure invincible spirit along with earl of bunnacurry favourite tomorrow upped in weights after two wins one over cd they could easily be involved in finish maybe some forecasts,fav looks the obvious one with win here beating shearian previous run in far better time than some of the others in market from a different div on same day..the one to beat..real battler the fav so bond angel might trade very short in running..
    Bond angel although only winning that poor race the time was the quickest on the card,compared favourably to the two 0-65s on the card that day over a mile,there's definitely more races off 56 negatives are gina mangan judging pace of race over a furlong further and bouncd factor,a high % of big distance winners at swell reappear and bomb out...Despite that the horse looks one to follow for awhile even if it were to bomb out tomorrow i wouldn't be leaving it on future runs as this is its surface looks far better tha on turf..

    6/1 generally now,think if prices hold up or bigger hugh taylor may put iot up as well even though fav is obvious pick..

    Hugh taylor never put it up but andy holding did,usually stops trains...interesting ride coming up here 9.8 from 4/1 looks like daves laying the balls off it had a nasty feeling it might happen with her riding.

    Drifts to 10.5 and misses the break,what a surprise one of the most blatant i;ve seen in months and i said in wruite uo it ran far quicker than the 0-65s last time out,the first three in todays race were all in those 0-65s as well on same day,don't know how evans gets away with it don't think i've ever seenj the horse ever not lead disgraceful..Bond angel ran the fastest furlong times throughout the card that day and comes out of stalls last today,am sure he puts these jocks on to get them beat out of sight,betting told you everything,thats the problem betting his horses just impossible to know what they are going to do..

    3.10


    Alpha tauri 8/1 365/lads/corals/victor/blacktype/corals.. 9/1 ppower/sportsbook/

    Alpha tauri was second to bond angel in that weak looking 0-60 and beaten 8ls but had to concede 20 pounds to a horse that looks well handicapped still,he was coming back from a six month break the veteran 12 now had been last in the four races before that break so looked likely never to win again..
    That race on comeback run was over 7fs tomorrow steps upto a mile more preferable,would be hard to be very confident hasn't won since may 2017 but as above i thought the time of that race looked quite good even though was beaten a long way and this is again the second div of the 0-65s so up in class..The jockey am not keen on although did ok on it in that run and gets to take another 7 pound off so just off 53,it looks at some point he is going to win again even if not tomorrow,just needs to repeat the form to be involved at finish...Alpha tauri was 3rd off 70 back in february at swell so 17 puond lower than tomorrow,very doubtful he can run to that mark again but at least showing retains some ability..Suppose Boots n spurs looks the obvious picks like alpha tauri on massive downgrade his marks now as good as he is but still got an obvious chance and soooqaan was a big improver last season ran some decent times now reasonable mark maybe try some forecasts..etc.

    12/1 365/lads/vivtor/betway/sportongbet,marathonbet 12/1 generally. obviously not expected to run well looking at that drift..

    16s now on betfair got 16/1 will settle for that,just shows how good the bond angel form was no damage very good month finished..

    This month winners
    6/1,8/1,9/2,12/1,10/1,11/2 but loads of places most days getting stakes back or small loss,plus advised forecasts 80,90 and 24 was also a tricast in there never included in figures,plus multiples wouldv'e been winners also not included, very consistent picks lately makes a nice ROI 100% deliberately bet last few days not so to go under the 100 !Trying not to have too many bets and keep the ROI around the 100 mark..
    Last edited by gigilo; 30th November 2018 at 5:13 PM.

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  6. #10224
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    Another very competitve card at lingfield hope the cards stay like this through the aw season just need a bit more form to go on to bet anything with any confidence will just have some small bets again maybe a multiple..

    Lingfield 12.50


    Very honest 12/1 365 8/1 ppower 15/2 sportsbook..skybet

    Very honest has always been consistent but doesn't win to often but 1/7/5/3/3/1 over lingfields c/d was placed in a couple of class 4s last season and won off 72 over tomorrows c/d last season,has also got some decent times on the clock here and kempton even though hard to win with..Last season was very consistent won that race at 9/2,since that win form has regressed although maybe excuses in slightly better races but has obviously not been at best,last time out ran a bit better on second run back from a three month break finishing fourth to busby in a 0-70 at kempton.Has a bit to prove now but runs off lowest ever mark and runs in first ever 0-65,the 9/2 win in a 0-75 tells you what price it wouldv'e been on that form probably favourite but hasn't hit form yet but still looks the bet and another that's worth following till it wins off current marks..


    Goes off 3/1 fav and trades 1.31 never looked like losing with furlong to go,the only one open to improvement beats don't thionk i've been on right end of tight finishes for months all summer...place no consolation when you get that much value.
    Last edited by gigilo; 4th December 2018 at 2:12 PM.

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  8. #10225
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    A Very Honest Appraisal .

  9. #10226
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    Hasn't been much to go at on the aw recently,southwell tomorrow again a very competitve card so will just be smallb bets for me and some multiples some of the ones that look obvious on swell form havn't been running well and the track even though been loads of rain has been running on slow side..nothing at [prices warrants any decent bets,have really just done them on last seasons aw form..

    Southwell 12.50

    Epeius 7/2 marathonbet/betfair 10/30 sportsbook/365/victor/ppower Kommander kirkup 4/1 sportsbook/ppower/skybet/lads/hills/victor/skybet/betfred/totesport


    Kommander kirkup won a weak handicap last time out if that's as good as he is now then would struggle to win this better claimer giving away weight to horses rated superior at weights,last season though when hit form did win off 71 in a 0-75 so on that form would be favourite in this race on known swell aw form...question mark is will horse show that better form now its won.
    Epeius has been running well in better races at newcastle was clear with lucky lodge at newcastle in a 0-70 last time out 4 1/2ls back to third first excel,first excel just touched off by kommander kirkup last time out at the weights then epeius would have something in hand again ? on surface only one run over c/d was mediocre but long time ago...The appleby horse point zero has been disappointing the last twice,but its run three runs back over 5fs was a quick time only .50 second slower than a class 3 handicap on the same card,impossible to predict now these appleby horses maybe put in for some forecasts as definitely in right sort of race.

    1.20

    Gabrials star 12/1 365 Epitaph 12/1 365 20/1 generally now,not surprised on recent runs as write up

    Gabrials star has some very good track form and decent times last season won off 70 by 11ls over 2 mile,then followed up with two claiming wins one over 1m6fs and another over 1m4fs and in decent times,has since joined the marjorie fife stable not showm much in four runs but back on favoured surface..Has a bit to prove now but would have a decent ew chance at the very worst in this grade on last seasons swell form,on the best of it would be favourite on swell form shown so far.
    Epitaph seems to have regressed last season was runner up to cosmelli in a very quick time over 1m4fs since then has not been the same horse,currently 1/35 runs as well has had impossible tasks last two runs behind victoria drummond and last time out a 1m4f race the time was very good suggesting the first three were horses to follow,.Think its worth trying over the extra two furlongs more likely to bomb out completely and race has lots of unexposed runners,could run ok if on a going day..although has been no confidence in it lately betting wise drifting like a barge most races...



    1.50

    Archimedes 9/2 365 7/2 sportsbook/ppower

    Archimedes hasn't shown much in recent runs although back in right grade tomorrow won three c/d races last season off 58,61 and 66 drops into a 0-60 for first time since winning off 58,nothing in tomorows prices on recent form but would be favourite on best of last seasons form..Honey g and divine call both won on same card two runs back strictly at the weights and times of divisions there's nothing between the pair on times so might be worth doing some forecasts..Maybe no show archimedes with price being so short but one to follow in this grade..lots of horses just coming back to surface so you may have to wait a run or two before stable try at prices.

    Saver on divine call can't believe it drifted to 12/1 i had it dead heating with fav from same day when they ran in different divs saved the day anyway was only 6/1 last niht and the forecast as well,unbelieveable prices sp was 15/2 9.0 betfairsp hope you had a saver or at least forecast wouldv'e been trivast in another 50 yards,ran well archimedes just gave them too much start ..there's nearly always something that saves the day,,£29 CSF,.

    2.20

    Hammer gun 7/1 13/2 ppower

    Hammer gun similar to archimedes, on best of last seasons form standing dish at swell,but six weeks off last season 4/1/4/1/4/2/1 off marks of
    81,76,82,79,82 and then winning off 84 in a 0-90 at 10/30 drops into a0 -80 tomorrow,so on nearly all of its form would be decent ew chance at the very worst and would be favourite at best..I suspect this will either be primed or just buried,stable havn't had a winner for awhile either but another for notebook..if no show



    3.20

    Decoration of war 5/1 365/victor 5/1 generally Mametz wood 11/2 hills/victor 5/1 generally

    Decoration of war maybe exposed now beaten a couple of times at short prices,now switched to appleby stable has still run ok but needs to raise level of form appleby has bought him probably hoping for improvement being out of declaration of war sire has a 60% strike rate on surface so
    possibilities..Mametz wood don't know what to make of last run,has run over the c/d as 2yr old form was weak,then beaten in a maiden by an appleby horse last time out, the time seemed to be quick on a slow surface going under 1m42 faster than tomorrows field have run this season so far,it's one of those times that look a bit conspicuous on previous runs and form currently 0/10...They could be interesting runners,they might just bomb out but with a sire stat like the one and time of another hard not to give them a chance,betting will be interesting the pair,drifts would tell you they are not expecting them to improve in a race where runners are exposed.

    Doesn't look a winning card to me,giving nothing away on prices on horses that need to come back to form although right races,they are the ones to follow in these grade races for time being..so have to do something just incase so just done 1/4 stakes..

    Other couple of races the 11.50 Lexikons the only horse you could back on what little form there is maysons 35% on surface and has decent draw
    should be free bet in running there at worst and the 2.50 Earl of bunacurry and mr cocoa bean they look exposed in this race will run thier races though and a rag like regular income 25/1 generally would be a possibility trainer has few winners but wouldn't be a shock if ran well if going on surface has dropped in weights.sire has had winners..

    Rubbish today,althouigh am not surprised nothing in prices,most of them drifted like barges and were coincidentally out the back of the telly nearly every runner had a feeling it might happen just have to keep followiong them as horses in right grades,obviously stables looking fior bigger prices..Had a nice saver at 12/1 though and 29 csf so not to damage done at 1/4 stakes.
    Last edited by gigilo; 11th December 2018 at 5:48 PM.

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  11. #10227
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    Chelmsford 5.15

    Drummer jack 15/2 skybet 7/1 totesport/betfred

    Will have a token bet on drummers jack,the 10 draw gives it a good excuse to not be trying so very small interest,has not shown a great deal yet in three runs on second run was 8th of 12 never really looked like getting involved over the 6fs at wolves and not given an overly hard race,first five are now rated 90,95,92,77 and 70 the 70 rated runner has been running ok in 0-85seven though drummer jack was beaten fairly easily just over 5ls but might be a little better than that form.That run was over 6fs,out of toronado this trip of 7fs should suit better sire 30% on the aw over the 7fs last time out was well beaten but that was over 5fs so either the horse is very limited and no trip or just trying to get mark down,gets to run off 60 tomorrow wilie muir trains and even though he doesn't have many winners with 2yr olds on the aw his strike rate is 19% and sire toranado is 20% on polytrack and 18% on tapeta..It might be one that you have to back a couople of times as being drawn 10 tomorrow could be a big disadvantage first time in handicap.,so just keep stakes small,it's only a 0-60 but a few unexposed but really if stable think
    its mark is generous you'd expect it to be backed unless it's non trier as willie muir horses in this grade when fancied would shorten.

    10s on betfair,druifted allday will be a bit uirprised if thats involved today at that price,from that stable.

    Will settle for it was cantering at finish but got left got the place money in 4th another 50 yards it wins,thought he was going to stop riding out finish for fourth place...got 9/1 with totesport/betfred was 2.58 4 places and 2.2 5 places all the value will be gone now though as massive eyecartcher..
    Last edited by gigilo; 13th December 2018 at 6:37 PM.

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  13. #10228
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    Chelmsford 5.15

    Drummer jack 15/2 skybet 7/1 totesport/betfred

    Will have a token bet on drummers jack,the 10 draw gives it a good excuse to not be trying so very small interest,has not shown a great deal yet in three runs on second run was 8th of 12 never really looked like getting involved over the 6fs at wolves and not given an overly hard race,first five are now rated 90,95,92,77 and 70 the 70 rated runner has been running ok in 0-85seven though drummer jack was beaten fairly easily just over 5ls but might be a little better than that form.That run was over 6fs,out of toronado this trip of 7fs should suit better sire 30% on the aw over the 7fs last time out was well beaten but that was over 5fs so either the horse is very limited and no trip or just trying to get mark down,gets to run off 60 tomorrow wilie muir trains and even though he doesn't have many winners with 2yr olds on the aw his strike rate is 19% and sire toranado is 20% on polytrack and 18% on tapeta..It might be one that you have to back a couople of times as being drawn 10 tomorrow could be a big disadvantage first time in handicap.,so just keep stakes small,it's only a 0-60 but a few unexposed but really if stable think
    its mark is generous you'd expect it to be backed unless it's non trier as willie muir horses in this grade when fancied would shorten.

    10s on betfair,druifted allday will be a bit uirprised if thats involved today at that price,from that stable.
    Serious dark arts employed there!! Best horse in the race by about 3/4 lengths!
    Last edited by trefflich; 13th December 2018 at 6:20 PM.

  14. #10229
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    Best horse in the race,but gave them 10ls stsrt and got stopped in run 2fs out,if it hadn't been trying i doubt he wouldv'e ridden it for 4th he couldv'e eased out 2fs out,was never going to win after the break.

  15. #10230
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    Drove it up the arse of two horses 2f out...unusual tactics from an absolute top class rider

  16. #10231
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    Horse in third stopped it in run got squeezed in between that and another,nothing he could do about it..

  17. #10232
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    Maybe so...unlucky whatever way you look at it and I didn't even back it

  18. #10233
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    Some horrendous cards on the aw still,decembers always my poorest month as still not much aw form to go on so keeping stakes to a 1/4 unless something really good catches the eye,..just so poor been like it for a couple of weeks,might tery and make up a lucky 15 later or tomorrow.

    2.40


    Hussar ballad 14/1 sportsbook/ppower/betfred/totesport

    Hussar ballads 9yr old now and last three runs very disappointing, put him up at wolves over 1m6fs three races back he won the corres[ponding race year before was beaten 7ls didn't seem to stay perhaps he's just not capable now in this grade even though only 0-65 and last two runs have been even poorer.It was only beginning of october was 3rd over tomorrows c/d when running off 64 in this grade,tomorrows race looks weaker bar a couple of runners the unexposed fav para mio and zealous that one has better form but no aw form yet,the rest of the field hussar ballads form even at a track it hasn't won at looks as good if not better and the last three runs enables it to run off just 58 tomorrow,lowest aw mark since 2013...Has plenty of placed form here even though not winning finished just behind good man over c/d in march when 3rd off 66 and has a stone turnarpund for 3/4ls good man priced at 7/1 tomorrow so if it does retain that ability then is overpriced...Maybe do some forecats with para mio and zealous,couldn't be confodent after last three runs so small bet..

    14/1 skybet


    Just unreal these rides every pick is getting dropped out by 15ls and should be winning no pace and nearest finish in 4th and had the 1.3,4 in forecasts exact same ride as the chelmsford runner,got my stake back on 4 places as massive drfter as well made it look more value in a weak race was evens for 4tbp but these things should be winning..nightmare these races at newcastle over 1m4f just makes betting impossible just set race up for fav off that pace..horse is obviously just coming into form as well off right mark..The time of that division was 25ls slower than the same grade first division just a joke.
    Last edited by gigilo; 15th December 2018 at 4:21 PM.

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  20. #10234
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    Unlucky man! Nearly had the tricast! I missed the 14s about your pick so went with zealous ew. Money came for para mio though. Onwards and upwards

  21. #10235
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    Should just put a line through december every season,very rarely decent month for me surfaces are changing all the time with different weathert conditions,january i see the aw starting proper doubt i will be doing much now bar the odd swell meetings...I want to see what pinnatas entered i over the winter as clocked up a really quick time at kempton,womdering if it could get in the aw finals somwhere maybe the mile handicap..only thing i've noted recently on the aw these 2yr old maiodenjs on the aw are absolutely dire right slow boats,like the last two races at wolves tonight...Will be interesintg to see how the two newcomers run in those races as both have drifted like barges especially the fahey hoprse half briother to alben star,will be watching that one closely..

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  23. #10236
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    Going to put a couple of things up but will be 1/4 stakes again unfortunately,prices may seem ok but the negatives in write ups..

    Southwell 1.30

    Tricky dicky 20/1 365 18/1 skybet 22/1 ppower/sportsbook

    Tricky dicky i put up last time out drifted like a barge, at the time couldn't understand the drift but only realized today that trainer olly williams has had one winner in last year on the flat from 58 runners so that would explain it,that was reflected in poor run from tricky dicky last time out..So the big negative is there to see,could only be a token pick but 20/1 wouldv'e been 5/1 on last years form when running over tomorrows c/d over 6fs 1/1/2/2/2/3 last run was off 85 in april,has run two very good races over 5fs at the track as well a second to foolaad in a class 2 and a
    second to moonraker off 84 late august...Then that poor run in a weaker race over the 5fs,basically just relying on him coming back to the form of any of his previous track form runs off 81 tomorrow,it looks unlikely with trainer form also has a poor draw in 9 but with that track record have to have a token bet and eventually when trainer hits a bit of form so will keep following for awhile..first time blinkers tomorrow as well.
    Favourite angel palanas was one of my to follows last season,has looked even better this season eased clocking a good time last time out with claimer taking off 7 the one to beat off just 72,a bit like tricky dicky poor draw but running so well can't see it not figuring,jack taylor first run on surface was a long way infront of tricky dicky last time out first try on surface and stays 6fs has an ew chance and archie watson sends two to swell tomorrow,having lots of winners and national glorys sire invinncible spirit very good on surface ,maybe some forecasts.

    3.30

    Bold spirit 10/1 365 16/1 ppower 12/1 sportsbook/skybe/totesport/betfred/victor/skybet


    Massive prices on bold spirit,on best of its form and majority of last seasons form record here over c/d 1/2/4/1/2/6/7/4/1 last season winning last race off 69 didn't run too badly in the race angel palanas won a 0-80 recently well beaten 7ls, but drops into a 0-65 tomorrow..This is one of the weakest races it's run in quite a while would be fav at best,but the big negative is jockey he's had 17 rides no winners one place,he takes off seven horse only runs off 56 lowest ever aw mark,jockey has a bit to prove but another that has to be followed at these prices and off these marks.
    Even if jock is no good,trading wose this really shouldn't be going off bigger than 6-7/1 tops it still wouldn'r surprise me iof went off favourite although that will probably depend on how hard stable are trying with this jock on.


    2.0

    Pearl acclaim 11/1 skybet/ sportsbook/unibet/totesport/betfred/corals/lads 14/1 victor/hills

    Similar to tricky dicky trainers in desperate form 40 runners without a winner, but pearl acclaim was running better than ever last season over the 5fs at swell last run here was in the class three tricky dicky was third had no chance in that class beaten 7ls was a little better than that form stopped in run.Previous c/d run was third in this grade off 74 and hampered, previous two runs to that was 4th to foolaad in a 0-90 and a 3rd to something lucky off 77,won earlier in season beating brother tiger off 73 in a class 4,tomorrow runs off 70 and three pound claim so off 67...trainer form big negative but its another to start following till hitting form in this grade..As mentioned above in tricky dickys race,archie watson sends two to swell dotted swiss in this 5f race has won off 81 on turf,ran ok last time over 5fs at chelmsford in a decent 0-85 well beaten but was drawn in 10,a lot of its best form has been on straight 5fs so this may suit sire does ok on surface and runs off 72 so intersting runner in this class 16/1 hills/sportsboo/ppower should be free bet in that price and maybe in running,also tan been running in better races has run well here before maybe some forecasts or savers but race does have quite a few with great sire stats open to improvement..
    David griffiths also runs warriors valley will be interesting to see if either this or pearl acclaim get backed as on such poor run especially fomr trainer that does well on the aw and with sprinters..

    Probably more realisticn ptices with trainer form 20/1 marathinbet 16/1 lads/..boyles/betfred/totesport generally.18/1 skybet 23s betfair.


    Ignoring trainer form huge drifts worst races tricky dicky and pearl acclaim have run there in tecent times,think tricky dicky was out for run as led and wasn't given a hard race pearl acclaim went off 36s on betfair,trainers just in desperate form so hard to not back them whenh these prices though i will be betting them again hopefully when trainers horses are running better..And bold spirit drifts from 6/1 out to 12.5 on betfair,never put in the race horse wanted to race but jock wouldn't let it,wasn't surprised by drifts on first two but that absolutelty stunk...
    Last edited by gigilo; 18th December 2018 at 4:39 PM.

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    Metro (18th December 2018), TheDukester (18th December 2018)

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    Will be returning to those three horses that ran today,they are definitely worth following stoll betting in 1/4 stakes back at my least favourite track newcastle..will try some multiples


    Newcastle 5.40

    Testa rossa 17/2 marathonbet 8/1 generally big drifter looking highly suspect. 11s betfair.. Elusive heights 6/1 365 generally..7/1 betbright

    Merweb looks the blot on the handicap running sunhat to 1 3/4ls on second ever run,sunhats now rated 81 the seconds won twice since and beat panmolle winner yesterday think lack of pace may have beaten it last twice here over c/d and last time out at wolves,a mark of 71 looks well in if pace on the one to beat trainer and jock won first todat at swell,at least add for forecasts..Testa rossa runs well here,keeps getting done by lack of pace like last time out over c/d when 2nd,still sits on a mark of 72 won earlier in the season off 66 in a 0-80 its best run of the season was a deecent pace on and time was good had elusive heights 4ls behind tomorrow has a 16 pound turnaround elusive heights... Testa rossas been beaten in these 0-75s since but mainly by the lack of pace,if they go quick enough then decent ew chance and elusuve heights also not easy to win with but has got some good form even though dropping in weights runs off 74 tomorrow but claimer takers off anoyher 5 pound.Was also 3rd in a 0-85 last time out hasn't run a bad race this season,probably like testa rossa needs decent pace,not impossible could lead as did when finishing behind testa rossa when the field came back...





    6.15

    Athollblair Boy 10/30 marathonbet 3/1 365/skbe generally Harvest Day 10/1 sportsbook 9/1 generally.


    Athollblair boy is probably better over 6fs although is a c/d winner,ran ok after a break in a class 3 vbeaten 5ls hadn't run since july last run previous to that was a winner over 6fs winning a 0-80 off 76 with 3 pound claim,tomorrow runs off 77 with 7 pound claim in a 0-75 has been going off 7/4 in those slightly better races..Negative would be the jock claiming 7 she usuallly sits way off the pace on her rudes so even though the horse is relatively well in this 0-75 she counteracts that a little,but the obvious one if at best.
    Harvest day looks relatively exposed,finished 2nd in this grade penultimate run but may scrape another race out of him in this grade as has run well in three races at newcastle,high draw and usualyl travels well not a great 0-75 so obvious ew chance.

    6.45


    Insurplus 12/1 generally Avenue of stars 14/1 365 generally.t

    Money for sior ottoman the horses heading the handicap have slid down the weights,if they can reproduce some of last seasions marks then that gamble and others at the top could easily win this poor race,ivan furtado in great form as well and this is a weak 0-65,same applys to johnny cavagin only ran three days ago in 0-70 drops in class yet again..maybe play some coppers on these.
    Two that have ew squeaks avenue of stars unlikely winner,although has beaten duke cosimo already this season,i doubt will be goiod enough to win the race but has pj macdonald on helen mcclintlock trains has had a recent winner 18% in aw handicaps for older horses,think horse would need a couple thatb look [potentially well in to flop to have any chance of winning..
    Insurplus has loads of track form,althogh maybe wants another furlong beaten by 6ls on comeback run after 6 month break although was a 0-70
    if this was a 7f race wpuld be half thios price won off 63 last season over the 7fs here and was 5th in a class 4,has run well over the 6f here once whn 3rd in a 0-70,hopefully they go quick enough as is back on that winning mark but claimer takes off another 7 pound,never heard of jock but has won a race.This will be third run back since that break hoping it is at peak now rinning off just 56 and has an ew chance..



    7.15

    Lucky lodge 7/1 365/lads/sportsbook/ppower/hills 15/2 skybet/betbright

    Lucky lodge i was surprised when it won off 62 well backed in a 0-70 over c/d had been following it as a horse that runs well, in right grades managed to miss its two wins in between backing it,runs off 67 tomorrow seems too high a mark o all known form wpuld be highest winning mark
    at age of eight...so looks unlikely but strictly on the 0-70 run has an ew chance at least..
    Last edited by gigilo; 19th December 2018 at 6:05 PM.

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    Swell 12.50

    Candesta 20/1 ppower/sportsbook/betfred/totesport Another token bet race..


    Candesta won one of these divisions last season by 5ls off this mark,horse hasn't run for 53 days so will probably need the run and is drawn in the car park in 14 so could only be a token bet,there look far more likely winners like three majors been running in better races at dundalk 0-65 and although sires not prolific will probably go on surface anthony mccann 18% with his runners over here.Luath hasn't run for 203 days has the best known form at swell usually runs in different class races to this,if it was fit would be big prices its opened at..Plenty of negatives in the race for most runners though have something to prove including candesta..


    Another farce at newcastle all the races cantering and 2f sprint against everyone of my runners and harvest day shouldv'e hacked uop usually prominent and there was a gap on the rail he didn't want to take the gap,was purely deliberate...Hard enough trying to pick winners with races being run like that and horses not trying,glad am betting in small stakes as its just impossible to see whats going to happen in those newcasstle races every race run at a crawl..i would bet exactly the same horses again with guaranteed pace..

    And two seconds beaten in photis as well,night woyuldv'e been ok had they raced in the early races,gertting loads of luck trouble is it's a;l bad.. a very poor month,hope luck changes in january.
    Last edited by gigilo; 19th December 2018 at 9:02 PM.

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    Always small stakes. It is very hard to pick winners at moment if I knew anything about football I'd be betting on that.
    Will be away for Christmas Gigs so just want to say merry Christmas to you and hope you and all the family have a great one.
    Good luck to all for next year and also have a good one.
    P.s good luck for tomorrow.

  29. #10240
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markssetgo View Post
    Always small stakes. It is very hard to pick winners at moment if I knew anything about football I'd be betting on that.
    Will be away for Christmas Gigs so just want to say merry Christmas to you and hope you and all the family have a great one.
    Good luck to all for next year and also have a good one.
    P.s good luck for tomorrow.
    All the best mate to you and family fella and happy new year,have a brain scan tomorrow so can blame the form on that... normality will be resumed in january,luck always evens itself out longterm..

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