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Thread: Daily picks.

  1. #10161
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheDukester View Post
    Great Start G!
    Only need one decent race like that and covers day,too many guesses today on horses with no fibresand form that was the problem..another meeting on thursdfay..

  2. #10162
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    Going to be some speculative picks being first swell meeting back i could easily pick three a race if i get time will do write up so small ew multis won't be able to perm them too many bets.

    Southwell 12.35

    Showboating 14/1 sportsbook/ppower 12/1 3652nd and winner as write up 11/2 and field games 16/1 as write up placed csf 30 tricast 197


    Showboating is undoubtedly on downgrade worst turf season although still has been running ok in slightly better races than tomorrows, horse is only going to go further down the ratings now an 11yr old.He ran two 5ths and a 3rd in class 4s on the turf this season only late september the 3rd in a 0-80,before turf season started was rated 86 at one point on the aw during 2017 but now running off just 66 in a 0-70,only have to go back to january when 4th in a 0-90 over tomorrows c/d..He's going to win a race this season off these marks even based on those turf runs and worth following through the aw season as its quite posssible could win a couple, even if not tomorrow there are some really interesting horses in this race and might have to wait for a similar race but still interesting pricewise,the negative has always been pace and only now ten runners with two not running.
    The favourite out of medicean could be anything,Weld al emarat is very interesting for mick easterby won first ever run over this c/d and was actually faster on the day than sae grade handicap as tomorrows on same day even as 2yr old debut,so is potentially very well handicapped and has been rated 95 on the turf this could still be a nice swell aw horse and only runs off 70 tomorrow after tumbling in weights(11/2).Even fieldsman(16/1) couldn't be discounted doesn't win very often but was rated in mid 70s when running in 0-75s over c/d last season and placing,running off just 65 another ew chance,a very decent looking 0-70..


    1.05

    Honey g 6/1 365 corals/lads/totesport/betfred/ppower/sportsbook 2nd and miningold placed 12/1 as write up fareeq unplaced Fareeq 6/1 sportsbook/ppower 5/1 betfred/totesport..

    Fareeq is a c/d winner won off this mark of 60 last season and then went off 13/8 fav in a 0-65 beaten by tan progressive horse from appleby
    stable,honey g has no fibresand form but been slightly poigressive on the turf,runs tomorrow off 57 after coming second in a 0-65..Sire Sir prancealot has 21% strike rate on this surface so no reason why shouldn't run well in a 0-60..Miningold(12/1) was rated 76 2017 been on downgrade but hasn't run on this surface out of decent sire piccolo and only runs off 51 a recent 4th to lucky lodge winner again since gives it every chance.
    It really looks the same as the two above probably better if you took its best form and revised mark but as said races are so competitve really can only play at peanuts and maybe some forecasts.


    1.40

    Homebefore dusk 11/8 generally..6/4 unibet/marathonbetlost

    Really would only pick this because of recent form,out of medicean so bred to go on surface the danger would be knighted and bred to on surface as well and especioally over these trips,its best form is as good as the favs just recent not so good but lee has rode it before but better jock on knighted now...

    2.15

    Cousin khee 10/1 sportsbook/ppower 9/1 skybet 15/2 betfred/totesportA placed and unplaced Katie gale11/1 365 10/1 skybet/victor/ppower/corla/totesport/betfred/boyles


    Lots of new horses running on fibresand makes a race for new horses to follow,on last seasons form in this grade and better cousin khee and katie gale would have ew chances,but they are veterans now at 11 and 8 so although they are still capable of picking up races there maybe better opportunitys later in season.Cousin khee runs off 69 tomorrow,shown nothing on turf won two races here at swell over 2m2fs last season off 63 and 67 although 7 pound claimer was on so not well handicapped on those wins particularly,but last run here was in a 0-80 had tomorrows topweight and katie gale in behind these three drop into a 0-70 tomorrow,after turf form needs to show ability is there still..
    Katie gale as said was behind by 3 3/4ls behind cousin khee staying on,earlier in season was 3 3/4ls behind cousin khee in one of his wins but has weight turn around to be closely matched,again has had long lay off 138 days another runner to be following in future off dropping marks could be a big drifter tomorrow out for run so betting will be informative..the fact their form is in this grade or better against horses that have to prove themselves on surface then they would be token bets with lack of run and turf form.Buonarotti i've been following and suppose its the obvious pick dropped in class been running well consistent all season,ran well in 0-75 last time out, this track could well suit so wouldn't discount as that turf form is as good as most of cousin khees or katie gales..

    Will be betting to a 1/5 of normal stakes,cards just too competitive as have other picks in the races as well although i thionk its a great notebook meeting for horses to follow..


    2.45

    Mr strutter 12/1 sportbook/ppower/tptesport/betfred Lucky beggar 14/1 sportsbook/ppower 8/1 totesport/betfredboth unplaced

    Declamation looked to be improving last season and could win this and essential ran well in a 0-70 here as well last season both obvious chances,two very speculative picks, one lucky beggar never wins and impossible to predict also drawn out in the car park tomorrow in 12 runs well in races it looks to have no chance then drops in grade and runs poorly has never been one to trust..Even last time out ran in a class 4 at catterick in a 0-85 was 5th only beaten 3 1/2ls,last run here was late august in a 0-70 finished third over c/d off 72 tomorrow off just 65 in a 0-65 thoroughly unreliable but on paper at least a decent ew chance.
    Mr strutter would be even more speculative as hasn't been as good on aw surfaces 0/13 but its turf form has been decent a third in a 0-75 this season off 69 and a second to dirchill in a 0-75 has run recently at newcastle beaten off 60...in a 0-60..He won't be winning on that form but interesting is first run at swell sire sir prancelot is 21% strike rate on this surface so off just a mark of 61 with 7 pound claimer could be interesting,if stable thinks this is his surface and could run to turf marks then obviously would be well handicapped..pretty sure he won't be winning on tapeta or poly so worth trying this surface with sire,betting will be really interesting..


    3.20

    Victoria drummond 9/2 sportsbook/ppower

    Some well handicapped horses in here Tommy doc thrown in off 80 on old form still only 6 with 15 runs was rated 95 at one point on comeback trail wouldn't be a shock if won this sort of race and interesting brought back to swell where well beaten last season...Victoria drummond of mark johnstons had three runs won at chelmsford last time out,form looked mediocre through the second so gets a mark of 79,only pointer that it could be well handicapped is if you ignore the second in that race while the third kelpie was over 5ls behind was only beat 4ls on saturday night at chelmsford in a class 2...It could be false form and as of writing not a [penny for the johnston horse,just looks interesting through sire sea the stars a 50% strike rate on the fibresand although i'm pretty sure if its well handicapped would be smashed off the boards in race like this..
    Quite a strange race as favs sire stats are poor even though best recent form,although only small sample and than you have the jihnston horse a bit to prove so horses like tommy doc,amazing michele potentially could be overpriced an interesting race but a bit of guesswork without more track form.

    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!Onl y had 2 stione in hand that cje;msfird form from the 3rd obviouskly was as good as it looked,another lovley jihnston winner topped up at 5.8 as well!!.

    Don't discount karaezak as well hasn't run for three years but rated 150 over hurdles and trainer very interestingl;y givong it a run here,hadn't looked at this runner when i did the form as saw the three year gap but that rating on the sticks would not surpriose me if showed up well...
    Last edited by gigilo; 12th November 2018 at 5:20 PM.

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  4. #10163
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nonannyimfine View Post
    Sherian will be my fancy if he stays in. They’ve been running him all year keeping him fit. Stable in excellent form. Good jockey up too!
    I laid it at 3s and backed it at 10s...

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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    This is a parody thread. After timing bollocks.
    Hows that? He mentioned 3 horses (4 if you count the fav, but didn't really say anything about it except 'it could be anything') and they were the first 3 home. He says regularly he does rfcs and tricasts, so hardly a stretch of imagination to think he had done these 3 the same (or 4)

  6. #10165
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    I laid it at 3s and backed it at 10s...
    I saw the price yesterday at 3/1 so left it. It actually drifted to an ew price but no bet for me. The Gavin Cromwell raider looked obvious in hindsight!

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    Small f/cast multis at Southwell pay bombs if you hit one
    Won't go wrong following gigs especially at southwell

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    AW Fillies and mares April 19th

    Moving swiftly 4/1 corals Rasima 11/2 lads

    Moving swiftly and rasima recently conrtested a qualifier for finals day at lingfield,both looked open to improvement on surface with rasima looking better as race went on and moving swiftly giving the field probably 12-15ls head start had no chance from that position but still got within 1 1/2ls of rasima.They look almost certain to run in april and they clocked up a decent time 1m34.63 although track was quick that's a decent time for the fillies and mares race and they look like they could go even quicker yet,it's hard to look beyond the pair even though prices may seem short at thos point,can't really see how they can get bigger only shorter.
    I have red styarlight down as one to follow and that could be the only danger,am not betting three in the race at least not at this stage as don't know it if will run but if it does will be in forecasts and maybe a single as well,ran in a decent time at ascot recentkly faster than the heritage handicap wouldv'e been 2nd if it had run in that race and giving weight to older horses rated 97..It's another that's improving and last time won on the aw won by an easy 7ls over the c/d..Wouldn't normally do these bets so early but can't see anythung running faster than front two in the market,almost certain to run and could well be 5/2 and 11/4 the pair or shorter on the day,so may as well have some interests now..
    Last edited by gigilo; 13th November 2018 at 3:01 AM.

  9. #10168
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    Quote Originally Posted by dvds2000 View Post
    Hows that? He mentioned 3 horses (4 if you count the fav, but didn't really say anything about it except 'it could be anything') and they were the first 3 home. He says regularly he does rfcs and tricasts, so hardly a stretch of imagination to think he had done these 3 the same (or 4)
    So put the maths on the thread showing how much those bets would cost.

    "The fav could be anything" gets interpreted for by how it runs. I must remember to use that one when I'm putting up horses.
    Last edited by SlimChance; 13th November 2018 at 5:53 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SlimChance View Post
    So put the maths on the thread showing how much those bets would cost.

    "The fav could be anything" gets interpreted for by how it runs. I must remember to use that one when I'm putting up horses.
    Sure that's ok not going to waste my time checking but doubt you tip much and wouldn't think anyone would take any notice if you did anyway.

  11. #10170
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    The fav looked awful thats why you don't bet horses at 13/8 and take them on first time on the surface had beaten some dogs at newcastle in a 0-65 and up 8 pound it couldv'e been anything just because it was from varian yard but had to improve dramatically and given huge rise in weights ,the other three picks i had put prices by the sides all well handicapped imagine if you taken the early forecssts/tricasts with 365 at prices 12/1,11/2 and 16/1 you wouldv'e had monster returns think it's pretty obvious just like the two horses i put up at kempton recently 94 quid forecast and 12/1 winner plus a tricast earlier in the month a couple did on here..The regularity the savers or forecasta come up speaks for itself,the results have always spoken for them selves if only i could get a 365 account to take those early forecasts and tricats they let you do.

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  13. #10171
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    AW Fillies and mares April 19th

    Moving swiftly 4/1 corals Rasima 11/2 lads

    Moving swiftly and rasima recently conrtested a qualifier for finals day at lingfield,both looked open to improvement on surface with rasima looking better as race went on and moving swiftly giving the field probably 12-15ls head start had no chance from that position but still got within 1 1/2ls of rasima.They look almost certain to run in april and they clocked up a decent time 1m34.63 although track was quick that's a decent time for the fillies and mares race and they look like they could go even quicker yet,it's hard to look beyond the pair even though prices may seem short at thos point,can't really see how they can get bigger only shorter.
    I have red styarlight down as one to follow and that could be the only danger,am not betting three in the race at least not at this stage as don't know it if will run but if it does will be in forecasts and maybe a single as well,ran in a decent time at ascot recentkly faster than the heritage handicap wouldv'e been 2nd if it had run in that race and giving weight to older horses rated 97..It's another that's improving and last time won on the aw won by an easy 7ls over the c/d..Wouldn't normally do these bets so early but can't see anythung running faster than front two in the market,almost certain to run and could well be 5/2 and 11/4 the pair or shorter on the day,so may as well have some interests now..
    Watch out as i might do a few more ante post bets for the aw as there have been some decent times on the aw fro more obscure horses i've been waiting to follow..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Markssetgo View Post
    Sure that's ok not going to waste my time checking but doubt you tip much and wouldn't think anyone would take any notice if you did anyway.
    Only the truly brain dead would "take no notice' of anything that Slim puts up. The man has forgotten more about betting than most on here will ever know.

  16. #10173
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    Quote Originally Posted by moviebuff View Post
    WTF relentless...
    It certainly has been,didn't take long to turn it round...

  17. #10174
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    After mondays card i would keep to very small stajkes again,total winning distances on monday were over 40ls and the winner to second was over 45ls it worked out 86% of the runners got beat 10ls and strangely a lot of the winners had no track form,the going they had as standard to slow probably about right but lots of horses with previous trajk form beaten out of sight..Usually happens when the colder weather gets into the surface,then it becomes a guessing game on which horses prefer the track riding slow,what it seems to do is horses that have run wel lthere with fast times don't run to the same form when its a lot slower,the appleby horse on monday in the maiden was a good example,running over 5 seconds slower than previous run over the straight 5fs which is just inexplicable even if track was on slow side..Had a few things marked off but prices really only just about worth token bets

    Southwell 12.40

    Boots n spurs 8/1 365

    Boots n spurs i put up at catterick end of november 2017 at 33/1 won at 12/1,seems to have totally regressed hasn't even placed in 12 months and not run much for a horse that usuially races alot,only glimpse of recent form a 7th of 12 at chester off 65,so not much to recommend it.This will be its first ever 0-65 last time it ran at swell was off 70 in march,tomorrow off just 55 and thomas ladd takes off another 5 pound,has never been that consistent on the aw anyway only won three but scott dixon does have a habit of getting these older horses back into some sort of form,like sir geoffrey 13 now but he gets it back to winning races every season.Boot's n spurs is 9yr old now,it could only be a token bet on what its shown lately the slow surface might suit it and the betting will be interesting as been massive prices throughout the season may just have gone but worth a little bet to find out..if it doubles in price or doesn't halve then will probably reflect its chances..

    1.40

    Tricky dicky 8/1 ppower

    Tricky dicky has never won over the 5fs here just the 6fs so a small negative to startt with,although its last two runs here has been 2nd to foolaad off 84 in a 0-105 and again end of august to moonraker off 84 again in a 0-90..it's winning form is over the 6fs here tomorrow drops into a 0-85 and although the 5f runs look rock solid those races have been run in fast times so there will be a ? over the surface presuming it's slow,claimer takes off 5 so down to 78 so marks ok..Am also not sure how the draw will work out either,didn't seem to be a lot in it on monday,appleby has the fav improving with decent sire stats and josephine gordon gets back on arzaak has decent record on it,appleby horse drawnj in the middle and tricky dicky and arzaak have two high draws 12,14 also jack taylor was looking exposed then ran a decent 4th in a 0-100- at epsom sires invincible spirit and again drawn next to the two highs 13 maybe some small forecasts,but its a very competitve race with a few that could improve for surface..


    12.5 betfair.

    2.15

    Sylvia's mother 7/2 hills/skybet/365/lads/victor/corals/boyles/betfred/totesport 4/1 ppower

    A nursery with not much to go on,think the johnston horse is well handicapped on its debut run,not as good since so impossible to weigh up and sire animal kingdom no stats on surface,ones already been backed sir ox,shown little but out of 119 rated oxbow on dirt so off a nothing mark could well figure and on right surface and different trip.Sylvias mother lot more experienced than most of these with eight runs,really only its last run when it won that showed its potential,winning at catterick over 6fs by 2 1/2ls high 60 horses behind so on the figures off 75 looks about right..Have looked at the other runners behind and they havn't gone on to do much,but the 2nd won a claimer in france then was 5th in a listed race,so maybe better than first appears also the time of the catterick race looked ok compared to the older horses rated upto 75 maiden was quicker although as mentioned the rest in the maiden havn't done much since.Sire of sylvias mother foxwedge has a 33% strike rate on the surface so could improve for it,although is drawn poorly in 10,just a small bet to see if it can back the last run up ior even improve..it's probably one to follow but that could be back on turf if it flops on the swell surface.I wouldn't give up on it if draw beats it as 33% sire stats do stand out,plus the very slow conditions will be a totally different test especially if misses the break..

    9/2 generally..
    Last edited by gigilo; 15th November 2018 at 2:34 PM.

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  19. #10175
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    After mondays card i would keep to very small stajkes again,total winning distances on monday were over 40ls and the winner to second was over 45ls it worked out 86% of the runners got beat 10ls and strangely a lot of the winners had no track form,the going they had as standard to slow probably about right but lots of horses with previous trajk form beaten out of sight..Usually happens when the colder weather gets into the surface,then it becomes a guessing game on which horses prefer the track riding slow,what it seems to do is horses that have run wel lthere with fast times don't run to the same form when its a lot slower,the appleby horse on monday in the maiden was a good example,running over 5 seconds slower than previous run over the straight 5fs which is just inexplicable even if track was on slow side..Had a few things marked off but prices really only just about worth token bets

    Southwell 12.40

    Boots n spurs 8/1 365

    Boots n spurs i put up at catterick end of november 2017 at 33/1 won at 12/1,seems to have totally regressed hasn't even placed in 12 months and not run much for a horse that usuially races alot,only glimpse of recent form a 7th of 12 at chester off 65,so not much to recommend it.This will be its first ever 0-65 last time it ran at swell was off 70 in march,tomorrow off just 55 and thomas ladd takes off another 5 pound,has never been that consistent on the aw anyway only won three but scott dixon does have a habit of getting these older horses back into some sort of form,like sir geoffrey 13 now but he gets it back to winning races every season.Boot's n spurs is 9yr old now,it could only be a token bet on what its shown lately the slow surface might suit it and the betting will be interesting as been massive prices throughout the season may just have gone but worth a little bet to find out..if it doubles in price or doesn't halve then will probably reflect its chances..

    1.40

    Tricky dicky 8/1 ppower

    Tricky dicky has never won over the 5fs here just the 6fs so a small negative to startt with,although its last two runs here has been 2nd to foolaad off 84 in a 0-105 and again end of august to moonraker off 84 again in a 0-90..it's winning form is over the 6fs here tomorrow drops into a 0-85 and although the 5f runs look rock solid those races have been run in fast times so there will be a ? over the surface presuming it's slow,claimer takes off 5 so down to 78 so marks ok..Am also not sure how the draw will work out either,didn't seem to be a lot in it on monday,appleby has the fav improving with decent sire stats and josephine gordon gets back on arzaak has decent record on it,appleby horse drawnj in the middle and tricky dicky and arzaak have two high draws 12,14 also jack taylor was looking exposed then ran a decent 4th in a 0-100- at epsom sires invincible spirit and again drawn next to the two highs 13 maybe some small forecasts,but its a very competitve race with a few that could improve for surface..

    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMM! Forecast,she was back on it what a record she has on it and the highs came up just like the opld days on the aw lovely drift to make a monster forecsst,as i keep syinthe aw is different gravy there's just so much you can do hope someone had a saver on the wonner as well...what a start to the aw season..


    12.5 betfair.

    2.15

    Sylvia's mother 7/2 hills/skybet/365/lads/victor/corals/boyles/betfred/totesport 4/1 ppower

    A nursery with not much to go on,think the johnston horse is well handicapped on its debut run,not as good since so impossible to weigh up and sire animal kingdom no stats on surface,ones already been backed sir ox,shown little but out of 119 rated oxbow on dirt so off a nothing mark could well figure and on right surface and different trip.Sylvias mother lot more experienced than most of these with eight runs,really only its last run when it won that showed its potential,winning at catterick over 6fs by 2 1/2ls high 60 horses behind so on the figures off 75 looks about right..Have looked at the other runners behind and they havn't gone on to do much,but the 2nd won a claimer in france then was 5th in a listed race,so maybe better than first appears also the time of the catterick race looked ok compared to the older horses rated upto 75 maiden was quicker although as mentioned the rest in the maiden havn't done much since.Sire of sylvias mother foxwedge has a 33% strike rate on the surface so could improve for it,although is drawn poorly in 10,just a small bet to see if it can back the last run up ior even improve..it's probably one to follow but that could be back on turf if it flops on the swell surface.I wouldn't give up on it if draw beats it as 33% sire stats do stand out,plus the very slow conditions will be a totally different test especially if misses the break..

    9/2 generally..

  20. #10176
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    Exacta 114 csf 88 what a tiouch. RELENTLESS!!

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    Didn’t miss it this time. Paid me 176.84 for 2 quid rfc

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nonannyimfine View Post
    Didn’t miss it this time. Paid me 176.84 for 2 quid rfc
    Results say Tricky Dicky wasn't even in the top 5 though? Am I missing something?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nonannyimfine View Post
    Didn’t miss it this time. Paid me 176.84 for 2 quid rfc
    How did you pick those two out and leave tricky dicky out,another fav stuffed from applebt stable rancid prices..

  24. #10180
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    Mar 2016
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    Nice forecast Giggsy , Thanks

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