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Thread: Daily picks.

  1. #8921
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    Was such a massive advantage to be up with the pace after seeing the early races the first two picks looked 10x better than last night guaranteed to lead and fav drawn 7 no surprise they were annihilated and similarly the other race the fahey horse drawn 8 the saver drawn low and guaranteed to be with the pace,havn't had a losing race this week. I was hoping shady mcoy was going to be a bet I can't back it at 5/1 though very disappointing,been running really well all season wanted double that really at least 8/1 anyway..might be a quiet day as had to go up to sins school this afternoon didn't get back till 4.45 had a few things marked off all prices had already gone,will have a quick look now but doubt there will be anything..
    Hope someone backed it drifted to 8.4 which was far more realistic,was going to put it up for tomorrows 7f race as was entered but had no chance off that mark was only a metter of time efore it won been an eyecatcher all season..

  2. #8922
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    Thanks G, unreal tipping as always. Gutted I missed it this time!

  3. #8923
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    Redacr 5.40

    Foxtrot knight 12/1 365/victor..10/1 betfred/totesort

    Typical Saturday cards like very little,not enough low grade racing with some decent value so having a bet on a track I rarely bet at am not even sure what the going iss not updated properly could be anything from gd/sft to gd/fm looking at going stick.Foxtrot night has not run in this grade for two seasons,has already won off 77 this season at ripon and been 3rd here over this c/d off 79 for horses rated upto 85,tomorrow just a 0-70 not a horse I have backed as very rarely wins 4/47 but can't really see how its going to go off bigger than 6/1 in this grade and seems to go on most grounds to me looks like its going to be nearer to good iof the updates have been correct.Not one I would rely on and the big negative is ruth carr is 0/24 runners and her runners usually run well in clusters so maybe not the best time to back it,but price looks like halving to me in this class so a decent trade so worth doing..

    10/1 10bet/betway/corals..11/1 hills
    Last edited by gigilo; 6th October 2017 at 7:01 PM.

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  5. #8924
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    Done a couple of ew lucky 15s,no strong picks small stakes..

    Chelmsford 6.15

    Alaska 9/2 365

    6.45

    Rua augusta 4/1 365

    8.45

    Outlaw torn 16/1 365

    9.15

    Knight commander 9/2 365 Nepeta 11/2 365

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  7. #8925
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    Done a couple of ew lucky 15s,no strong picks small stakes..

    Chelmsford 6.15

    Alaska 9/2 365

    Exposed maiden stuck in mid 70s,mitch godwin claims 5 pound at least has run on the aw running on 4th at wolves over 6fs not a great race and some of these are not totally unexposed plus not great draw on 9,looks to be fighting out for the places on what's been shown so far.

    6.45

    Rua augusta 4/1 365 5/1 ppower

    Respectable maiden rua augusta ran ij over c/d although gosden,johnston,haggas has two entrys,appleby,stoute this is potentially a red hot race if one or two are above acerage then rua augusta will be struggling but again looks one that unless very unlucky and running into three decent ones should be fighting out places..

    8.45

    Outlaw torn 20/1 lads/ppower/sportsbook/hills/corals/10bet

    The juggler looks the one to berat in a very poor race,won by 7ls last time out could've been 12 that div was a lot quicker than the one following it won by tomorrows 2nd fav chilli jam plus last season ran over further at this track in higher grade races not getting beat far,the horse potentially could be improving.Outlaw torn hasn't run its best races over this c/d and didn't run great over it on the 5th but from the 10 draw,did run ok on the 21st of September over c/d in a 0-60 when 4th to arcadian sea time of the race was pretty good for the grade.He looks an unlikely winner now the veteran,thoroughly unexposed and there are quite a few unexposed ones in tomorrows race but he maybe a decent back to lay from the 1 draw always races prominently..



    9.15

    Knight commander 9/2 365/victor Nepeta 11/2 ppower 7/1/sportsbook 13/2 corals/betstars

    Knight commander joined olly murphy and has been running over hurdles now rated 110,joined stable from anabel murphy didn't show anything for her in three runs and previous to that was with William knight 0/13 on the turf although ran some respectable races in low 70s and high 60s..He looks an interesting runner back on the flat off 63 with claimer taking off another 7 p0und as well,he's out of sir percy has decent strike rate on the aw and over these 2mile trips sire is currently 10/54 on the aw so decent strike rate,olly murphy has done quite well when switching codes wiyh his horses as well..
    Napeta lightly raced 9 runs for johsnton stable has been running in slightly better races on the aw but over shorter trips up to a mile,although last time out ran over 1m4fs finishing 5th sire kittens joy has loads of winners on the aw averaging 20% on most surfaces and trips and equally over 2miles so might find some improvement stepped up again.
    If these two bomb out then ballyfarsoon should run well,showed improved form last time out and has run well at the track previously,has never won over the trip but won by 7ls when dropped to this mark over 1m6fs last season..
    Last edited by gigilo; 12th October 2017 at 2:07 AM.

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  9. #8926
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    Do you still like Firmament for the Balmoral Handicap after the Ascot run?

    20/1 still

  10. #8927
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    Didn't stay on the ground last time out,the race was slow by 4.5 seconds and that was just 7fs that was soft ground a couple in that race like lord glitters loved it and now head the market its quite unusual to get that much racing at ascot on sift ground gd/sft would be ok but don't want soft ground on the day just the risk you take with ante post bets,won't put me off I hope it goers 25s.And if it does come up quick then the ground will be against those that ran well over the 7fs at ascot and betting will change..

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  12. #8928
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    York 5.25

    Twin appeal 25/1 ppower/sportsbook...22/1 sunbets 20/1 365

    Am not sure how anyone has this 25/1,even if it doesn't win or place looks like being heavily gambled at these prices thought it would open 10-12/1 and still be backed so some money to be made trading regardless thos could well go off under double figures.Has been mainly contesting class 2 and 3 handicaps and has some good form at the track,this season 6th of 18 to viscount barfield over the mile here,3rd to makazemm off 91 atNewmarket in front of favourite shady Mc coy,2nd to easy tiger off 91,another 7th of 14 beaten just 2ls in a class 2 behind chifofchiefs 4th to get knotted off 91 over c/d again.Been running on various grounds from gd/fm to gd/sft think the only ground doesn't like is soft which would excuse the last run,the main negative is the horse doesn't win too often but most of its form this season is as good as anything,last wek I mentioned shgay mc coy and again wouldn't surprise me if that one won again,prices are ridiculous and will halve iin price minmum even though its win record isn't great..
    Tomorrow runs off just 85 and drops into a class 4 first time since this time last year..

    20/1 lads 16/1 betfred/totesport/corals/boyles/betway/10bet
    Last edited by gigilo; 12th October 2017 at 5:55 PM.

  13. #8929
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    what was the jockey waiting for on knight commander....

  14. #8930
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    Was cantering the last 1/2 mile,but those 2 mile races with no pace from that position no chance was surprised he even tried to get in the frame,best horse in the race but thays the problem with 2mile races on the aw they are very rarely run at a decent pace..

  15. #8931
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    Newmarket 4.50

    The wagon wheel

    16/1 ppower/sportsbook 14/1 corals/lads/skybet/365

    The wahon wheel seems in and out but twop oits very poor runs have been on softer ground,did run in the ponte race with queen kindly and eartha kitt drawn wiode so could excuse that,then ran in the beverlety bullet giving the field 6ls stasrt to be only beaten 1 1/4ls bt take cover.That form is as good as anything in tomorows race,but another furlong but grounds goping to be quick another 100 yards would've won the Beverley race by a couple of lengths,two 110 rated horses just infront,this could be a group horse next season and i'd imagine last race tomorrow so will be going on my to follows for next season regardless of result.

  16. #8932
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    York 5.25

    Twin appeal 25/1 ppower/sportsbook...22/1 sunbets 20/1 365

    Am not sure how anyone has this 25/1,even if it doesn't win or place looks like being heavily gambled at these prices thought it would open 10-12/1 and still be backed so some money to be made trading regardless thos could well go off under double figures.Has been mainly contesting class 2 and 3 handicaps and has some good form at the track,this season 6th of 18 to viscount barfield over the mile here,3rd to makazemm off 91 atNewmarket in front of favourite shady Mc coy,2nd to easy tiger off 91,another 7th of 14 beaten just 2ls in a class 2 behind chifofchiefs 4th to get knotted off 91 over c/d again.Been running on various grounds from gd/fm to gd/sft think the only ground doesn't like is soft which would excuse the last run,the main negative is the horse doesn't win too often but most of its form this season is as good as anything,last wek I mentioned shgay mc coy and again wouldn't surprise me if that one won again,prices are ridiculous and will halve iin price minmum even though its win record isn't great..
    Tomorrow runs off just 85 and drops into a class 4 first time since this time last year..

    20/1 lads 16/1 betfred/totesport/corals/boyles/betway/10bet
    Got this almost spot on,backed it all the way diwn to 12/1 and laid half a barrow off at 11.5 with some ew bits at 25s,20s and 16s running on...pity there wasn't a race like this everyday..

  17. #8933
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    Hope you had a saver on shady mc coy again that's twice in back to back weeks,horse has been flying all season...

  18. #8934
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    [QUOTE=gigilo;686004]Newmarket 4.50

    The wagon wheel

    16/1 ppower/sportsbook 14/1 corals/lads/skybet/365/betst

    The wagon wheel seems in and out but two of its very poor runs have been on softer ground,did run in the listed ponte race with queen kindly and eartha kitt drawn wide so could excuse that,then ran in the beverley bullet giving the field 6ls start to be only beaten 1 1/4ls by take cover and final venure form that looks rock solid.That form is as good as anything in tomorows race,but going another furlong grounds going to be quicker, another 100 yards would've won the Beverley race by a couple of lengths,two 110 rated horses just infront,she could potentially be a group horse next season and i'd imagine last race tomorrow so will be going on my to follows for next season regardless of result.[/QUO

    14/1 betstars/blacktype/10bet..16/1 victor/betstars..
    Last edited by gigilo; 14th October 2017 at 2:09 AM.

  19. #8935
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    Hope you had a saver on shady mc coy again that's twice in back to back weeks,horse has been flying all season...
    big bet on it last time, decent bet on it again....

  20. #8936
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    Goodwood 2.0

    Denmead 14/1 sportsbook/ppower

    Denmeads been progressive stepped up to these distance races has only had 18 lifetime runs three wins was recently 2nd off 79 on the aw at Kempton over 2mile in a 0-85 but penulyimaste run was only beaten 9ls over 2m4fs at goodwood in a 0-100 on gd/sft ground,led over 3fs out and tomorrow back to the 2mile at goodwood.Disappointed last time out,but tried to make the running in a class 2 cesarewitch trial,tomorrows race jump jocks ride and gavin Sheehan rides had 4 winners yesterday.Negative could be trainer has been out of form no winners in last 14 runnwers but had a decent season and horse dropd into a 0-80 athough its a very competitive race..Can't really see how its going to be bigger than 7-8/1 based on the goodwood run tops..decent trade..

    10/1 lads/corals 11/1 skybet/10bet/victor/boyles/betstars/marathonbet/188bet..

    Medburn cutler 13/2 365/sunbets/corals/sportsbook

    Medburn cutler stuck in the high 70s but rarely runs a bad race form on gd/sft ground 1/3/4/3/1/5/2/4/1 this season already two 2nds over this c/d off 76 races for horses rated upto 85 and 90,plus a 4th and and 2nd in back to back runs at Chepstow in an 85 and then a 90 rated race at Chepstow.Last time out only beaten 11ls in that ceeaewitch trial,get the impression this horse is better value in better races but can easily see this going off a lot shorter with so much solid form in slightly better races and has the track form as well.Again seem to have fallen on a trainer out of form,but prices look like contracting and overall trainer has 13% strike rate in the flat last 5 seasons..not my sort of races tyhese distabce races but at least look like shorteners..I can see medburn cutler going off around 4/1 in this race srong fav and decent trade..

    Bit frustrating denmead not running but won a nice few quid on the race traded 2.36 medburn cutler after drifting to 7.4 strange drift and took 1.75 for 4 places...

    4.55

    Stellarta 10/1 skybet/sportsbook

    Had a little bet on this earlier at 12/1,wasn't going to bother putting it up as race looks ridiculously competitive but then remembered I put it up last time out at Kempton so better put it up again as it seems all horses I have oput here recently when beaten have won on next runs.Stellarta hasn't won in 14 months,but she has some decent form and was beaten 3ls by boy in the bar over c/d in may,but now has a turnaround in weights of a stone and no guarantee boy in the bar will run to best on softer ground,although similarly stellartas best form has been on good ground she ran ok when 5th in the stewards consolation on soft ground in august over this c/d though.That was her only respectable run on soft ground so wouldn't be overly confident with plenty of soft ground horses in the race,she deserves to win a race think she will pick something uop but maybe on the aw she's worth a small bet..
    Last edited by gigilo; 15th October 2017 at 2:09 PM.

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  22. #8937
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    Useless at the moment am not surprised though not really seeing anything in the prices,should really have a few days off and just wait for the aw season but as I've spent hours doing these three meetings will have some small ew multiles etc,doesn't look a day for getting rich..have picks in every race can't be backing lots of horses at 4-5/1 when prices look about right.There are ? over the ground as well yarmouths unbelievably been watered,mussulburugh and Windsor not been updated since Saturday,i presume Windsor will be gd maybe gd/gdfm and musselburugh gd/sft maybe gd/gdsft...

    Musselburugh

    4.20

    Gabrial the tiger 11/4 ppower / Roaring forties 6/1 365

    A very weak looking handicap for horses rated upto 75,gabrial the tiger won on heavy ground last time out at chester and is only 2 pound higher after that win is also 3/3 over c/d. won three races back to back last season last one off 80,as mentioned it maybe the ground that would be a negative if it has dried out but looks the obvious pick in the race.Roaring forties could be the one to take advantage were it to speed up a little,finished 3ls behind gabrial the tiger at chester only has a pounhd pull,but ran well to be second over c/d to dark profit in a 0-85 previous run so wouldn't surprise me if this one shortened up a lot.Has a habit of missing the break but has fiorst time pieces on tomorrow..


    4.55

    Forever lady 7/1 365/sunbets/betfred/totesport 6/1 ppower

    Forever lady looks hard to win with,probably needs slow ground to show its best she maybe one of those horses that runs her best in better races as her last run when 3rd over the mile here to sophie p was different class form but she has had plenty of chances.Probably a mile against these would be better,hopefully ground will be soft enough and graham lee rides her last person to win on her in may wouldn't be overly confident with profile.Will probably halve in price in this race,although best form so far has been in better races..

    3.40 Yarmouth

    Saga sprint 8/1 skybet/sunbets/sportsbook/10bet/betfred/betway/lads/hills/totesport/corals/betway/marathionet..9/1 ppower

    Saga sprint an exposed handicapper in a very poor race,rated just 53 has been running in slightly better races than this most of the season all on slower ground,started season on 68 now that 53 ran ok over c/d when 3rd to askari in a 0-60 and not to bad although beaten 7ls in a 0-70 in a five horse race behind minginrocks. The most interesting run is when it won its only race in a claimer in fairyhouse rated 70beating a 73 rated runner june 2016 that was on gd/fm ground yet in last 11 runs nothing better than gd/sft although was 3rd at wolves over 1m4fs off 73 now 20 pund lower and that was only second run for current stable.Might be an angle in the ground maybe not,betting will be interesting in a dire race..

    Drifting like a barge 10/1 generally 11/1 betstars,perhaps no show todaty 14.5 on betfair,will be watching this closely..

    Windsor

    5.30

    Caioadiosimdone 7/4 ppower/skbet/sportsbook..

    A redhot maiden with three horses strong form in handicaps and caioodiosimdone running in listed race on debut at 200/1 beaten just 5ls a piece of form like this usually comes undone,the time suggests was no fluke only .47 slower than the group 2 won by beat the bank on the same ccard horse won by 5ls.With natural improvement on top if acts the same on faster ground then could be a 90+ horse,the ? could be the ground looks like there's a possibility of gd/fm compared to the soft ground it ran on,the betting should dictate this race as if the stable think they have a 90 horse then should be way odds on or if infact it might not like the ground.I would say a lot of debuts that have been made like this they tend to bomb out and never reproduce the form again so will be very interesting...It has to be said though if the fav doesn't come on for the run the prices of majboor would look enormous especially in a maiden..
    Last edited by gigilo; 16th October 2017 at 12:37 PM.

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  24. #8938
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    Balmarol handicap

    Firmament 25/1 ppower/sportsbook

    Firmament is building up a really good profile at ascot has been stuck on a mark of 109 so couldn't say well handicappee but contested loads of good races this season 5th to stamp hill when held up in last finishing strongly in heritage handicap over 7fs at ascot,3rd to flaming spear over a mile at York in another ridiculously competitive handixcap and then again 5th to remarkable over 7fs at ascot held up last again finishing strongly.In 2016 was 2/2/3/3 at ascot off marks of 102,106,108 and 109 was 3rd in this corresponding race last year at 7/1 running on strongly at finish,most of the races he's been beaten in have been over 7fs yet all four wins have been over a mile,ground seems immaterial sand almost looks sure to run with form on track plus most ground.It maybe even the softer ground has been slightly against him and if the ground does turn out goodish could be a slight positive as quite a few hordes he will be running against oor finished behind may prefer that softer ground.Can't really see why he will be 25/1 on the day,in his last 19 runs has gone off double figure prices only twice and those were the runs when 5th to stamp hill unlucky in run and 3rd to flaming spear,could easily go off 12-14/1 with so many positives he has very little to find with this seasons winners in front of him in the betting and with extra distance and pull in weights.The biggest positive is track and almost guaranteed to run with maybe quite a few runners ground dependant..
    Currently ground gd/fm so ground is favouring firmament more rain forecast from Wednesday onwards but should be good ground at worst the same as ;last year when he was 3rd,have just looked at his last two results over 7fs at ascot and every runner that finished infront of him has a preference for softer ground in both races and are all shorter in the betting.A lot of those runners may not even run if the ground is gd/fm but will definitely drift and firmament will definitely shorten looks like being 14/1 tops to me probably shorter especially if there's any firm in the going,of course may not run will be keeping an eye out for any 25s going,i doubt it but there's 20/1 with 5 books currently..

  25. #8939
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    Useless at the moment am not surprised though not really seeing anything in the prices,should really have a few days off and just wait for the aw season but as I've spent hours doing these three meetings will have some small ew multiles etc,doesn't look a day for getting rich..have picks in every race can't be backing lots of horses at 4-5/1 when prices look about right.There are ? over the ground as well yarmouths unbelievably been watered,mussulburugh and Windsor not been updated since Saturday,i presume Windsor will be gd maybe gd/gdfm and musselburugh gd/sft maybe gd/gdsft...

    Musselburugh

    4.20

    Gabrial the tiger 11/4 ppower / Roaring forties 6/1 365

    A very weak looking handicap for horses rated upto 75,gabrial the tiger won on heavy ground last time out at chester and is only 2 pound higher after that win is also 3/3 over c/d. won three races back to back last season last one off 80,as mentioned it maybe the ground that would be a negative if it has dried out but looks the obvious pick in the race.Roaring forties could be the one to take advantage were it to speed up a little,finished 3ls behind gabrial the tiger at chester only has a pounhd pull,but ran well to be second over c/d to dark profit in a 0-85 previous run so wouldn't surprise me if this one shortened up a lot.Has a habit of missing the break but has fiorst time pieces on tomorrow..

    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMM!!!!This must've been one of the best betting races in awhile going 11/4 and 6/1 and the others looked to have no chance,the ground hadn't changed much cleaned up even got 1.49 a place gabrial the tiger incredible value,about time with all the stinking drifters last few runners back in the groove!!!


    4.55

    Forever lady 7/1 365/sunbets/betfred/totesport 6/1 ppower

    Forever lady looks hard to win with,probably needs slow ground to show its best she maybe one of those horses that runs her best in better races as her last run when 3rd over the mile here to sophie p was different class form but she has had plenty of chances.Probably a mile against these would be better,hopefully ground will be soft enough and graham lee rides her last person to win on her in may wouldn't be overly confident with profile.Will probably halve in price in this race,although best form so far has been in better races..

    3.40 Yarmouth

    Saga sprint 8/1 skybet/sunbets/sportsbook/10bet/betfred/betway/lads/hills/totesport/corals/betway/marathionet..9/1 ppower

    Saga sprint an exposed handicapper in a very poor race,rated just 53 has been running in slightly better races than this most of the season all on slower ground,started season on 68 now that 53 ran ok over c/d when 3rd to askari in a 0-60 and not to bad although beaten 7ls in a 0-70 in a five horse race behind minginrocks. The most interesting run is when it won its only race in a claimer in fairyhouse rated 70beating a 73 rated runner june 2016 that was on gd/fm ground yet in last 11 runs nothing better than gd/sft although was 3rd at wolves over 1m4fs off 73 now 20 pund lower and that was only second run for current stable.Might be an angle in the ground maybe not,betting will be interesting in a dire race..

    Drifting like a barge 10/1 generally 11/1 betstars,perhaps no show todaty 14.5 on betfair,will be watching this closely..

    Windsor

    5.30

    Caioadiosimdone 7/4 ppower/skbet/sportsbook..

    A redhot maiden with three horses strong form in handicaps and caioodiosimdone running in listed race on debut at 200/1 beaten just 5ls a piece of form like this usually comes undone,the time suggests was no fluke only .47 slower than the group 2 won by beat the bank on the same ccard horse won by 5ls.With natural improvement on top if acts the same on faster ground then could be a 90+ horse,the ? could be the ground looks like there's a possibility of gd/fm compared to the soft ground it ran on,the betting should dictate this race as if the stable think they have a 90 horse then should be way odds on or if infact it might not like the ground.I would say a lot of debuts that have been made like this they tend to bomb out and never reproduce the form again so will be very interesting...It has to be said though if the fav doesn't come on for the run the prices of majboor would look enormous especially in a maiden..

  26. #8940
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