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Thread: Daily picks.

  1. #10961
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    Wolves 6.20


    Critical Thinking 14/1 365

    Don't think i've ever backed thios horse when winning,had 60 races no wins in 12 n the turf but 7 on the aw from 48,runs off a mark of 61 lowest since may 2018 most of the wins coming over 7fs,so a 0-60 7fs race wouldv'e looked good after its last run..Went off 40/1 finishing 4th in a 0-75 off 62 LTO beaten 2 1/2ls,time was similar to the first div on same card so ran well,tomorrow steps upto 1m1/2 nowhere near as good over this trip last run here was poor over this distance and previous to that was second in a 0-65 over this trip..That was a 0-65 but beaten 5ls but was a very weak race running off 59 tomorrow off 61 with claimer taking off 5,just looks worth a small bet although i suspect he might halve in price so probably a decent trade in there..Worth noting for return to 7fs,as this isn't its best trip..
    Scoffsman would be interesting if fit 287 days off just the nine runs not won on the aw but a decent third here in a better race last season,actually went off 3/1 favourite when last seen and refused to race,has dropped himself out a couple of times as well,obvious ability and would have a very decent ew chance if fit and actually came out of the stalls..
    Last edited by gigilo; 13th September 2020 at 6:35 PM.

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  3. #10962
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    Watering so will be small stakes as done form on gd/fm ground..




    Thirsk 1.15


    Victory Heights 5/2 Billian 11/4

    Will be disappointing if one of these doesn't win although always a bit eyecatching when entered in these auction stakes races instead of something far better,Victory heights is a good example only three runs and a wind op already so there msybe a ?..The other Billian won at Beverley on secod run,the time of the race only .03 slower than the class 4 for older horses,if victory heights doesn't turn up then this would be the one on that form..Both decent places at prices...

    My suspivcions were right,although betting them ew was small loss 71 rated the winner,beaten sh/hd and a nck sps 13/8 and 15/8 some great trades on these..



    1.45


    Air To Air 5/2 365 betfred 4 places Babe Alicious 9/1 generally 4 places betfred


    A 0-70 nursery over 7fs a bit of a guessing game,Air To Air got left on debut at wolves made loads of ground up even though still beaten 6ls but was respectable first run was upsoides recent winner that hacked up at wolves recently Denzils Laughing won off 60 but hacked up on sunday..
    Then on second run again at Chelmsford dwelt again making late ground into fourth,the fifth won next time out Faustus,doesn't look chucked in off 66 but the trip looks right suspect it may drift as horses that top the weights have better form but on soft ground..
    Babe Alicious just the two runs,a decent debut at Cateririck gave the field 8ls start and not given a hard race,finished a nk behind a horse that has since finisghed second in a handicap,looked far better than that form,then next time out ran at Hamilton set an impossible task beaten over 7ls but over 5fs again and on soft ground..That looked a decent race the first two were newcomers but the third Burning Cagh was fourth in Flying Childers on saturday..been given a mark of 60 could be well in if trip and ground suit..Think the mark looks decent,but 7fs on fast ground bit of guessing involved.

    Ait to air misses break by 5ls,unbelievable today thats three picks all done on the line,ridiculous thankfully i do these ew so only small loss again..no luck today,another monster trade ended up 4/6..


    2.50


    Spiorad 11/2 generally Club Wexford 20/1 ppower/victor/sportsbook 18/1 skybet/888sport/365


    Spiorad just the twelve runs three wins won by 5ls over c/d August 2019 off 79,then won off 84 at thirsk upped in trips in the 90s unplaced twice,
    penultimate run was third in a 0-88 at York but flopped here last time out,now back down to 86 in a class 4 forst time since the wins..Not a great pruce based on last run,but right track class and mark..
    Club Wexford has been running ok in decent races and on the wrong ground,second to Glasses up off 90 early season in a 0-95 then soft ground runs,gors on soft but not its best srface was even third in a 0-95 at haydock as well off 83 and ran welll considering the chester run was a 0-105 on slow ground beaten 5 1/2ls..Was probably a little better than that form as well,but the last time out at thirsk flopped,the ground looks right timorrow and size of field but i was waiting for the ayr card to be runing won two class 2s there last season..The other big negative Roger Fells having a nightmare season 0/40,so probably worth following Club Wezford for a few runs,and those ayr cards.Dawaleeb doesn't win too often but last time out was third in the race Club Wexford ran in and decent place chances at worst,loads of decent placed form in this grdae and better.Really Club Wexford shouldn't be going off bigger than 6-7/1 if stable expect it to run to form..monster trade..or so it should be.

    Farce of a race they go no pace and the total rag win,defintely not trying with club wexford was out the back drifted from 6/1 to 14s on betfair,surprised wasn't entered at Ayr this week maybe it is havn'r chreced,and spoirad came out awkward in the stalls shouldv'e won i really hate redcar bar that one meeting a saturday ago..

    3.20


    Lady Nectar 7/1 hills Normandy Barriere 7/1 365/hills/skybet/betfred/unibet 7/1 5 places 5 places 15/2 ppower/sportsbook/victor


    Lady Nectar looks outclassed on her form but the time she won on gd/fm at thirsk looked decent that day she won easily of 65 carrying 9-5 but her winning time was only .22 slower than Another Batt winning the 0-95,bit to prove now after flopping at Catterick but based on that time in a 0-75 as long as the grounds quick then she should be competitive oiff 73..
    Will give Normandy Barriere one chance,i used to back it all the time havn't backed it in recent time has been on the downgrade,hasn't won since
    May 2017 but last season was still rated 96,a second to Swindler at Ascot off 87 on fast ground,its always looked a fast ground horse and from what i can see looking at last years times at the tracks the Swindler run was the last time it ran on geunine gd/fm..They ae watering at Redcar but hopefully will be gd/fm by the off giving it this one chance.
    Last edited by gigilo; 15th September 2020 at 3:32 PM.

  4. #10963
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    Wolves 6.20


    Critical Thinking 14/1 365

    Don't think i've ever backed thios horse when winning,had 60 races no wins in 12 n the turf but 7 on the aw from 48,runs off a mark of 61 lowest since may 2018 most of the wins coming over 7fs,so a 0-60 7fs race wouldv'e looked good after its last run..Went off 40/1 finishing 4th in a 0-75 off 62 LTO beaten 2 1/2ls,time was similar to the first div on same card so ran well,tomorrow steps upto 1m1/2 nowhere near as good over this trip last run here was poor over this distance and previous to that was second in a 0-65 over this trip..That was a 0-65 but beaten 5ls but was a very weak race running off 59 tomorrow off 61 with claimer taking off 5,just looks worth a small bet although i suspect he might halve in price so probably a decent trade in there..Worth noting for return to 7fs,as this isn't its best trip..
    Scoffsman would be interesting if fit 287 days off just the nine runs not won on the aw but a decent third here in a better race last season,actually went off 3/1 favourite when last seen and refused to race,has dropped himself out a couple of times as well,obvious ability and would have a very decent ew chance if fit and actually came out of the stalls..
    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!A nother stonker!!! had to get on the place there with the non runnrer what a tiuch,worked out beautifully went no pace and nicked it.!!!RELENTLESS!!.
    Last edited by gigilo; 14th September 2020 at 6:29 PM.

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  6. #10964
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    Yeeeeeeoooooooooo.
    Go on my son. Had 20 ew on that. Booooom

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  8. #10965
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    Beverley 5.05


    Ifton 7/1 365 Grouseman 7/1 365 betfred 4 places 13/2 sportsbook/ppower/betfred 4 places

    Worst race of the day probably,a classified race for horses rated upto 55 faourute Stone Mason could be well in was rated in the 70s at one point now with Appleby tomorrow first time pieces,hard to know what trip suits best ran ok in a 0-65 handicap at Donny staying on one paced,but lasr time out at swell led and didn't stay although a 0-65 beaten 4 1/2ls.. A guessing game but might be worth adding at least for forecasts Tyler heard takes off another three as well it has been in the best races,so obvious favourite at the weights..
    Iftona a seventeen runer maiden,but thats how bad this race is but already this season has been third in a 0-60 at leicester,last season had three places two in 0-60s and one in a 0-70 also has a fourth in a 0-75 at kempton going this way round..if it runs to the majority of its form i can't see it being unplaced even if not winning,the obvoous negative Ruth Carrs having a nighmare..
    Grouseman five runs,first handicap run was here on fourth run August 12th,not a bad race for the grade a 0-65 staying on beaten 2 1/4ls the third was a previois winner that had beaten Bollin Margaret a winner again yesterday,the winner of that race Jupiter race has won again and the fifth directly behind Grouseman was second next time out in a 0-75..The time of that Beverley race was quicker than the other two c/d handicaps as well,but as with these unreliable types came out and run last at wolves last time out,si back here but this time drops back rtwo furlongs,doesn't look right on the 1m2f run but compared to most in this race was respectable form..Small interesrs in a desperate race.

    Got doneover by the watering again boredering on gd/sft why they keep doing it,just ridiculous race was slow by 6 seconds the last time grouseman ran there over 2fs further the race was slow by 2.35 seconds,strubg out like washing a complete farce..good/gdfm the going was yesterdat and they watered it..Just impossible to win when they persist doing this..will be the same all week as well,better off waitung tioll weather rurns on the turf to gd/sft/.
    Last edited by gigilo; 16th September 2020 at 5:23 PM.

  9. #10966
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    Chelmsford 7.30

    Parkncilla 10/1 365 7/1 skybet Amor Fati 9/2 365


    Both C/D winners Amor Fati 4/26 on the aw but hasn't won since July 2019 and that was on the turf on the aw April 2019 dropped to lowest mark since winning over C/D in March 2019,Kirby rode it that day and has a record of 1/1/2/2 when riding..The obvious negatives are there to see unreliable,but like last time out should've won a 0-65,probably going to need a decent pace as well,not guaranteed crystal pallas cat will lead and
    could do with Jeanette May taking it on..It will be the same for Parkncilla needs them to go quick,for such a lowgrade horse not a bad aw record 2/12
    and a couple of places, won back to back races over c/d last season off 49 then 52 but was also second offf 57 and 59 then january was fourth off 62 in a 0-70..Three poor runs after that although ran ok last time out here over inadequate 7fs,staying on in a 0-60,as Amor Fati even though gets the right trip needs a decent pace,Saffie Osborne also rides a negative but does take off 7 on last seasons form would be no bigger than 4/1 to win this race..Nearly all its form last season was in better races than this,hopefully plenty of pace to suit the pair..
    Last edited by gigilo; 17th September 2020 at 1:49 AM.

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  11. #10967
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    As suspected overwatered at ponte although gutted as liked the 1,2 in the last and by then had dried out quite a bit,don't know whats going on at ayr the grounds desperate yet hasn't rained for days i was trying to pre empt the form and do it on gd/gdfm seems highky unlikeky thats going to happen looking at todays times,maybe get good ground by saturday very strange the going there..Can only be small interests,it's that time of year when forms changing and watering good ground in Autumn makes no sense..Another race today a pick gettig left miles Parknacilla sees to be every other race at the minute,luck is desperate and the other Amor Fati traded 1.5 as well..

    Ayr 1.40

    Invincibly 10/30 victor/hills generally Mcmerry Jim 7/2 victor/hills

    Invincibly ran a decent time at redcar beaten by Alpha rose by 3ls, but that had finished second on debut and had previous experience,that was on very slow ground at Thirsk it looks like simlar ground to Ayrs tomorrow,the class three handicap on the card at thirsk was only .80 quicker so it looks like Invincibly sets a decent standard..The other runner maybe one for the future,made its debut at swell to a previous winner and that horse Kool Mee Dee has won again off 77,the time at swell backed this up but the negative is the sire The Last Lion, has had just 1/24 runners very poor very strange for a horse that beat blue point..If this shows nothing tomorrow looks like it will be heading back to fibresand or an other surface..Danny tudhope rides one for michael bell and thats been entered in a group 2so possobly a lot more to come



    2.10


    Gumdrop 11/2 generally

    Looks like fav Wobwobwob was set up for this two weeks,big gamble at Redcar on monday and now entered here off just 68,was 2 1/2ls quicker than an older handicap on the same card gets in here off 68 looks nearer to an 80 horse toi me the sires had 6/34 runners the question mark could be the ground 0/5 on soft but 2/9 on gd/sft looked like soft grounf to me today looks desperate..Maybe a little saver/forecat with Gumdrop/Showalong,Gumdrops looking a little exposed but won a 0-85 at chester by over 3ls,time looked respectable the seconds been placed again and the thirds won a 0-75..Obvious place chances,just a lot of unexposed runners in the race..from top stables.,including the easterby runner showalong i put it up last time out hacked up ar redcar and could be chucked in again on ground it definitely likes,will be surprised of winner doesn't come from these three..


    3.20


    Last Empire 3/1 sportsbook/ppower Back To Brussels NR now 4/1 365/hills 7/2 generally

    Been some shocking results in these sort of races at Ayr in the past listed races for fillies Back to Brussells has just come up a non runner,Last Empire was fourth in this last year as a 3yr old so at least has experience of the track,invariably misses the break..Looks like might be improving two runs on softer ground this season a sixth to liberty beach at Haydock and a second to Dakota Gold in the beverley bullett stand out,needs to not concede too much start..Magical Journey and Queens gift have run well in these listed fillies races before if favourite flops..


    4.55


    Pacino 6/1 ppower/sportsbook/hills

    Vive La Difference maybe have been aimed at this race,was an eyecatcher in the legends race at Donny last week and now runs off just 67,lowest mark since november 2017,was sixth here staying on in a 0-75 last season off 73 now off just 67,easterbys winning everythjng he's running,also Mustaqbal i put up at ripon after a massive eyecatching run here in a better race on simiajr ground..That one if repeating that Ayr form would have ew chances as well,but is drawn in the carpark,Pacino 1/18 on turf never won over the trip but last two from three runs have been in better races a third at haydock in a 0-78 on faster ground and then last time out a second in a 0-80 at chester..The ground there was very soft and similar to tomorrows it has never run well on that ground before so will have to repeat that firm,does look a bit odd but obvious place chances if it does with Billy Garrity taking off another five.


    5.25


    Cassy 5/2 /betfredhills 4places Ralphy Boy Two 12/1 365 15/2 hills 4 places

    Casy O won a 0-85 today at Ayr straight out again tomorrow in weaker race,was actually the first div of two divs and a second quicker,obviously conditions suit so the obvious one to beat presuming it runs,is only two pound higher than when fourth at York in a 0-83,i presume its just the conditions that have benefitted it..just seven lifetime..
    Ralphy Boy Two just a 3yr old eleven runs,has run some good races this season sprinting last season second off 71 over 6fs on heavy ground,came back this season and ran fourth of eight at haydock on soft ground in a 0-85,three runs since all respectable 3/2/5 all at Hamilton
    3rd in a 078,2nd in a 0-85 on soft ground and 5th in a 0-75 over 1m3fs just too far,off 70 tomorrow in a 0-70 could easily run well as long as it's not a Hamilton or right handed specialist.

    4/1 generally




    Kempton 5.10

    Daphne May 8/1 generally

    Bagara is the obvious one if it repeats its Sandown 0-75 run,dropping into just a 0-65,hannon has two in the race so presume this is his main runner and obvious looking favourite...Daphne May from smaller trainer doesn't have many winners but running at 13% and aw 3yr old races 2/9
    Daphne May easily beaten last time out at Redcar fourth beaten 5ls but desperate ground,its debut run beaten 4ls at Wolves staying on over 6fs it could be well handicapped time looked ok winner Tattoo is rated 75,the second let the form down in a maiden at wolves last week although was probably as good as this race if not better..The third Cuban Breeze won off 71 at wolves two weeks ago so rated 76 while Daphne May gts in here off just 61,looks a fair mark but when i checked sire stats on the aw although good on Tapeta and Fibresand the stats are poor on this surface and track running at less than 10%..maybe one for notebook back at wolves but will have a small bet just incase takes to it..


    8.15


    Run After Genesis 15/2 skybet 7/1 generally 4 places Lithario 14/1 sky/sportsbook/ppower

    Again have ended picking a carpark draw in Run With Genesis,trainers 0/27 with 4yr olds on the aw this season so plrenty of negatives although he has had 2/5 winners recently Run With Genesis gets to run off lowest mark since winning off 60 over 7fs here back in March 2019 looked a 7f horse till ran over tomorriws c.d when third off 65 in a 0-70 got stopped in run..that was november 2019..Came back from break and ran at lingfield on the turf on straight track,finishing 5th staying on strongly only beaten 1 3/4ls,that was a 0-70 but very weak race,that last c/d run here at kenpton it looks like these 0-65s are his grade or maybe slightky higher 0-70s but the draw is the negative tomorrow..
    Lothario 3/14 on the aw and 4 places,0/7 on the turf and 0 places over a mile on the aw is/ 2/6/5/3/1/8/ although hasn't won since August 2019 a 0-75 off 70,this season four runs two on turf and the twi aw runs wrong trips so forgiveable,tomorrow off 65 and that's its lowest mark since march 2019..An interesting runner if anywhere near its best,although again poor draw in 9,at leat in right race and right prices..Takeonefortheeam regular here,been running well 3/19 won off 63 in june over c./d and last time out ran well enough in a 0-75 beaten 3 3/4ls,looks as good as the other two could replace one of those with this one i have no preference as its c/d form is very consistent around 15/2..Edward greatrex rides,hes won on her before over c/d but hasn't rode in recent times on known c/d form these three stand out..

    Think i will resign myself to not betting at ayr when the grounds like this,hardky anythigs going on the track most of the horses i did were beat after 3/4fs the ground is so slow it must just be really tacky because the results make absolutely no sense the first winner had 7ls to find on the second and the runner up was having its first run on there...A complete guessing game..
    Last edited by gigilo; 18th September 2020 at 5:21 PM.

  12. #10968
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    Small stakes for me a few horses at wolves that could run well but have had plenty of chances



    Wolves 4.40


    Source Of Light 11/4 365 Starseed 10/3 365


    I put Source Of Light up last time out here in a handicap,it made its debut at Hamilton beaten 2ls by Blackberry in a really fast time,then came second at hamilton on sifter ground 68 rated horse behind it in third,then went off 11/10 fav on soft ground again.It then came tio wolves off .69 and went off a huge price 28/1,something must have happenred from the debut run the time the form everything about that race was good but two runs later drited to 28/1 from early pruces of 7/1,and tomorrow drops into a seller..Even stranger that the stable havn't even given it another chance on turf on faster griud,that debut run it says the ground was gd/sdt which it wasn't it was only .50 above standard at Hamilton,something has either happened to the horse so in seller or they have massively underestimated it's first run,that doesn't seem feasible they could have a 75 horse and lose it tomorrow..Stands out a mile on its form,but i still don't understand wht they havn't given it a run on qick turf after only four runs..
    Starseeed is second in on form,but even that could be supect as tomorrow 6fs it has some ok form on the aw was 2 1/2ls behind Electric Blue ad that got touched off at catterick today in a 0-75 nursery,they are the obvious two at the weights and known form but very strange no handicap routes for horses with just four runs..

    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAABBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!So they wre just setting that race up for it,i suspected it very syrange though maybe they don't relaize how goodthios horse could be on the turf forecast as well..max bets in that race csf £6.89 Exacta £7 best betting race of the day..


    Newbury 1.05


    Mithras 4/5 hills

    Mithras gave the field a 15ls start on debut at Sandown the psce held up and the front three looked decent,eventually finishing fourth winners since been beaten third in a listed race and the second third and fifth have won..That race maybe not be quite as good as first thoight even though is backed up by the time,but Mithras looked the best horse in the race,a maiden tomorrow if it gets beat and runs too form it will be beaten by a group horse..

    All crwaled from the stalls and a freak result,you can ignore that may as well chuck mithras in the deep end next time out and get a decent price..and a decent pace


    Wolves

    7.15


    You're Cool 14/1 365 Dark Side Dream 7/1 ppower/sportsbook

    Dark Side Dream could only be a token pick,stable no winners for 190 days,thoroughky exposed 8yr old althoigh last two runs here has been 2nd and 3rd so has ew chances,wouldn't be a total shock if Jorvick prince ra ok for the Appleby stable either a pound lower than last win over c/d didn't run to bad in a 0-75 over c/d when beaen 23/4ls back in february 11/1..You're Cool another trainer that's in desperate form Derek Shaw no winners for 194 days and most them are finishing last,Lewis Edmunds always rudes this horse especially when it wins ad he's on Dark Side Dream..so it looks like he's switched to that runner because of lack of confidence..Luke Morrios is riding,looks like he's just ridig anything going,and the horse bombed out here just five days ago..only positve was the run befire that on the 2nd of September got cut up from the break
    over this c/d did well to be only get beat 2 1/2ls and that was a 0-70...the second lord of the Glen has won since as well..It would be speculatuve with those jockey bookings,but if trying it could easily bounce back ad run into a pplace..


    Wolves 6.15

    Dancing Feet 7/2 365/hills Amber Island 13/2 sportsbook/ppower

    Dancing Feet could still be an interesting runner,in this 0-85 6f race in February on second ever run it won here by 6ls in a time of 1m 12.73 a vert fast time on the same card that night a clas 2 for horses rated upto 105 it was slower by .01 and carried 7 pound more tha the 87 rated concierge
    on that run on onky second time at the track running to the low 90s..Has run in a couplr of 7f listed races on the turf beaten easily,and a 6f handicap gradually getting into wealer races then last time out beaten over 7fs by Delilah Park at kempton in this grade...That run suggests its nowhere near as good as just 7 months ago,but have to try it back on tapeta over its c/d win off just 83..
    Amber Island only six lifetime runs,was 40/1 third here over 7fs recentky staying on rally strongly,unsure why they've dropped it to 6fs but could easily progress to be competitve in this slightly better race,horse came from Apleby stable and adn't run for 7 months so decenr run..

    7.45


    Ustath 15/2 365

    Even more speculative than the previous race Ustath has shown very little in recent time,still only 12 lifetime runs 5 o the aw one win April 2019 won by 6ls over this c/d and absolutely nothing since,has been in the last two nearly every run since..Ran a little better last time out in a 0-65,beaten 4 1/2ls drops into a 0-60 would be very speculatuve but thats the only glimmer of showing something in awhiile and Roger Fell actually had a winner since after horrendous run..


    Newmarket 3.15


    Dancing In The Woods 10/1 unibet 9/1 hills 8/1 generally 17/2 victor/betway


    An unreliable type although plenty of ability,1/8 wins likes gd/gdfm ground two poor runs this season with one decent one here over c/d run in a respectable time coming second to Broughtons Gold and 3 1/2ls back to the third a couple of winners have come out of that 0-90..If can get out on terms from decent draw could run well in a 0-85,but hard to catch rightmbut track trip and ground suits,..

    4th but got stake back evens for 4 places,so no damage..
    Last edited by gigilo; 19th September 2020 at 4:51 PM.

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  14. #10969
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    As suspected overwatered at ponte although gutted as liked the 1,2 in the last and by then had dried out quite a bit,don't know whats going on at ayr the grounds desperate yet hasn't rained for days i was trying to pre empt the form and do it on gd/gdfm seems highky unlikeky thats going to happen looking at todays times,maybe get good ground by saturday very strange the going there..Can only be small interests,it's that time of year when forms changing and watering good ground in Autumn makes no sense..Another race today a pick gettig left miles Parknacilla sees to be every other race at the minute,luck is desperate and the other Amor Fati traded 1.5 as well..

    Ayr 1.40

    Invincibly 10/30 victor/hills generally Mcmerry Jim 7/2 victor/hills

    Invincibly ran a decent time at redcar beaten by Alpha rose by 3ls, but that had finished second on debut and had previous experience,that was on very slow ground at Thirsk it looks like simlar ground to Ayrs tomorrow,the class three handicap on the card at thirsk was only .80 quicker so it looks like Invincibly sets a decent standard..The other runner maybe one for the future,made its debut at swell to a previous winner and that horse Kool Mee Dee has won again off 77,the time at swell backed this up but the negative is the sire The Last Lion, has had just 1/24 runners very poor very strange for a horse that beat blue point..If this shows nothing tomorrow looks like it will be heading back to fibresand or an other surface..Danny tudhope rides one for michael bell and thats been entered in a group 2so possobly a lot more to come



    2.10


    Gumdrop 11/2 generally

    Looks like fav Wobwobwob was set up for this two weeks,big gamble at Redcar on monday and now entered here off just 68,was 2 1/2ls quicker than an older handicap on the same card gets in here off 68 looks nearer to an 80 horse toi me the sires had 6/34 runners the question mark could be the ground 0/5 on soft but 2/9 on gd/sft looked like soft grounf to me today looks desperate..Maybe a little saver/forecat with Gumdrop/Showalong,Gumdrops looking a little exposed but won a 0-85 at chester by over 3ls,time looked respectable the seconds been placed again and the thirds won a 0-75..Obvious place chances,just a lot of unexposed runners in the race..from top stables.,including the easterby runner showalong i put it up last time out hacked up ar redcar and could be chucked in again on ground it definitely likes,will be surprised of winner doesn't come from these three..


    3.20


    Last Empire 3/1 sportsbook/ppower Back To Brussels NR now 4/1 365/hills 7/2 generally

    Been some shocking results in these sort of races at Ayr in the past listed races for fillies Back to Brussells has just come up a non runner,Last Empire was fourth in this last year as a 3yr old so at least has experience of the track,invariably misses the break..Looks like might be improving two runs on softer ground this season a sixth to liberty beach at Haydock and a second to Dakota Gold in the beverley bullett stand out,needs to not concede too much start..Magical Journey and Queens gift have run well in these listed fillies races before if favourite flops..


    4.55


    Pacino 6/1 ppower/sportsbook/hills

    Vive La Difference maybe have been aimed at this race,was an eyecatcher in the legends race at Donny last week and now runs off just 67,lowest mark since november 2017,was sixth here staying on in a 0-75 last season off 73 now off just 67,easterbys winning everythjng he's running,also Mustaqbal i put up at ripon after a massive eyecatching run here in a better race on simiajr ground..That one if repeating that Ayr form would have ew chances as well,but is drawn in the carpark,Pacino 1/18 on turf never won over the trip but last two from three runs have been in better races a third at haydock in a 0-78 on faster ground and then last time out a second in a 0-80 at chester..The ground there was very soft and similar to tomorrows it has never run well on that ground before so will have to repeat that firm,does look a bit odd but obvious place chances if it does with Billy Garrity taking off another five.


    5.25


    Cassy 5/2 /betfredhills 4places Ralphy Boy Two 12/1 365 15/2 hills 4 places

    Casy O won a 0-85 today at Ayr straight out again tomorrow in weaker race,was actually the first div of two divs and a second quicker,obviously conditions suit so the obvious one to beat presuming it runs,is only two pound higher than when fourth at York in a 0-83,i presume its just the conditions that have benefitted it..just seven lifetime..
    Ralphy Boy Two just a 3yr old eleven runs,has run some good races this season sprinting last season second off 71 over 6fs on heavy ground,came back this season and ran fourth of eight at haydock on soft ground in a 0-85,three runs since all respectable 3/2/5 all at Hamilton
    3rd in a 078,2nd in a 0-85 on soft ground and 5th in a 0-75 over 1m3fs just too far,off 70 tomorrow in a 0-70 could easily run well as long as it's not a Hamilton or right handed specialist.

    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!F cuk me a winner at Ayr,lovely drift 4/1 5.78 on the faor,gone from disaster too completely turned dat around,great stuff,tragic stuff that ayr meeting..

    4/1 generally




    Kempton 5.10

    Daphne May 8/1 generally

    Bagara is the obvious one if it repeats its Sandown 0-75 run,dropping into just a 0-65,hannon has two in the race so presume this is his main runner and obvious looking favourite...Daphne May from smaller trainer doesn't have many winners but running at 13% and aw 3yr old races 2/9
    Daphne May easily beaten last time out at Redcar fourth beaten 5ls but desperate ground,its debut run beaten 4ls at Wolves staying on over 6fs it could be well handicapped time looked ok winner Tattoo is rated 75,the second let the form down in a maiden at wolves last week although was probably as good as this race if not better..The third Cuban Breeze won off 71 at wolves two weeks ago so rated 76 while Daphne May gts in here off just 61,looks a fair mark but when i checked sire stats on the aw although good on Tapeta and Fibresand the stats are poor on this surface and track running at less than 10%..maybe one for notebook back at wolves but will have a small bet just incase takes to it..

    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!Talk about well handicapped,crazy hardly a penny for it either,that's the beauty of small trainrs on the aw...


    8.15


    Run After Genesis 15/2 skybet 7/1 generally 4 places Lithario 14/1 sky/sportsbook/ppower

    Again have ended picking a carpark draw in Run With Genesis,trainers 0/27 with 4yr olds on the aw this season so plrenty of negatives although he has had 2/5 winners recently Run With Genesis gets to run off lowest mark since winning off 60 over 7fs here back in March 2019 looked a 7f horse till ran over tomorriws c.d when third off 65 in a 0-70 got stopped in run..that was november 2019..Came back from break and ran at lingfield on the turf on straight track,finishing 5th staying on strongly only beaten 1 3/4ls,that was a 0-70 but very weak race,that last c/d run here at kenpton it looks like these 0-65s are his grade or maybe slightky higher 0-70s but the draw is the negative tomorrow..
    Lothario 3/14 on the aw and 4 places,0/7 on the turf and 0 places over a mile on the aw is/ 2/6/5/3/1/8/ although hasn't won since August 2019 a 0-75 off 70,this season four runs two on turf and the twi aw runs wrong trips so forgiveable,tomorrow off 65 and that's its lowest mark since march 2019..An interesting runner if anywhere near its best,although again poor draw in 9,at leat in right race and right prices..Takeonefortheeam regular here,been running well 3/19 won off 63 in june over c./d and last time out ran well enough in a 0-75 beaten 3 3/4ls,looks as good as the other two could replace one of those with this one i have no preference as its c/d form is very consistent around 15/2..Edward greatrex rides,hes won on her before over c/d but hasn't rode in recent times on known c/d form these three stand out..

    That last race was unreal takeonefirthetean trades 1.44 with lithario trading 3s,runoutofgenesis miles out the back,they both,finish out of the frame and runoutofgenesis gets third,can't believe what i saw there untreal stuff got 10/1 the 3rd 15/2 the 4th so no loss on the race bar some firecast...was paying 4 places

    Think i will resign myself to not betting at ayr when the grounds like this,hardky anythigs going on the track most of the horses i did were beat after 3/4fs the ground is so slow it must just be really tacky because the results make absolutely no sense the first winner had 7ls to find on the second and the runner up was having its first run on there...A complete guessing game..
    Last edited by gigilo; 18th September 2020 at 8:26 PM.

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    Leicester 2.0


    First Lott 9/1 365 15/2 betway/victor/skybet 7/1 ppower/sportsbook/888sport

    A decent debut at Goodwood in 6f maiden,was fift beaten 2 3/4ls,running green was dropped out from the tree drawn whilst the first four were pretty prominent,she aso seemed to not hadle the track,the winners rated 80 the second.,third and fourth all won on next runs now rated 95,76 and 80 Meu Amor went off fav in a the big nursery at donny last week finising syrongly in 3rd and the second Illykato wasfifth to Umm Kulthum yesterday..First Lott flopped next time out at Newbury over 7fs on soft ground,back to 6fs running off a mark of 73,should be winning races at somepoint,she does look a bit quirky so may have to follow her for a few runs.Follow suit has rock solid form and Dirty rascal bar last run form was also rock solid..Could well go off 9/2-5/1 ish decent trade.
    Last edited by gigilo; 21st September 2020 at 2:17 PM. Reason: double post

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    Markssetgo (22nd September 2020)

  17. #10971
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    Leicester 2.0


    First Lott 9/1 365 15/2 betway/victor/skybet 7/1 ppower/sportsbook/888sport

    A decent debut at Goodwood in 6f maiden,was fift beaten 2 3/4ls,running green was dropped out from the tree drawn whilst the first four were pretty prominent,she aso seemed to not hadle the track,the winners rated 80 the second.,third and fourth all won on next runs now rated 95,76 and 80 Meu Amor went off fav in a the big nursery at donny last week finising syrongly in 3rd and the second Illykato wasfifth to Umm Kulthum yesterday..First Lott flopped next time out at Newbury over 7fs on soft ground,back to 6fs running off a mark of 73,should be winning races at somepoint,she does look a bit quirky so may have to follow her for a few runs.Follow suit has rock solid form and Dirty rascal bar last run form was also rock solid..Could well go off 9/2-5/1 ish decent trade.

    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!Chucked in as the Goodwood form showed and on the clock,only thing that worried me was the crazy watering the did,race was slow by 1.18 seconds so got awa with it,won't find a better handicapped horse all week,been following that nmaiden at goodwood off a cliff,its winning fortunes..Lovely start to the week,almost had my max ew on that today..

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    Markssetgo (22nd September 2020)

  19. #10972
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    Nice one gigs again. I was on but had it in a double and of course the other lost.
    Keep them coming!!

  20. #10973
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    Can't say i like much tomorrow,notice they are waterig tracks and there is rain on top,so the turfs a complete waste of time two token bets in same race timorrow at kempton be like a 1/4 pt on them..

    Kempton 6.30


    Misu Pete 40/1 ppower/sportsbook 33/1 skybet/betfred/betway/boyles/888sport/victor Rogue Tide 16/1 365 14/1 generally


    Misu Pete a veteran,one i usually put a line straight through only time it wins has been from the front and likes to dominate drawn in the carpark tomorrow so will be interseting to see how he's ridden,last time out was drawn 9 wasn't rushed up and ran reasonably well over an inadequate 7fs finishing quite well complete opposite of anything previous to form..Was still only 7th but was running on,again will have to try the same tactics from the 12 draw be interesting if they try holding up again or just sacrifice the race by trying to get to the front..he did win here over c/d off a two pound lower mark in March obviously very speculative for a horse of his age t go against running style but that run seemed respectable.Rogue Tide was in the sae race,has had seven races just two places was sprinting when with simon crisford was only only july was 5/12 staying on in a 0-68 for 3yr olds over 6fs at this track..then went to Mark Loughnane has gone off massive prices,has not shown anything in first two runs,and although only ninth last time out looked to be staying on in Misu Petes race when running up the backs of horses stopping...That is the way it appeared and am not 100% thats what happened as a bad angle,also considering it's form the prices aren't brilliant Hollie Doyles riding so has influenced that,same as Misu Ptete a small speculative bet,the horse was rated 66 in that better 6fs race tomorrow runs off 60 but stepping upto the mile..
    Last edited by gigilo; 22nd September 2020 at 7:53 PM.

  21. #10974
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    Just 1/2 stakes for me,usually a day i leave alone dne some small multiples



    Newmarket 3.35


    Good Birthday 25/1 skybet 8 places


    Good birthday was 3rd in this last year,tomorrow runs off an 8 pound lower mark,this is probably one of the strongest cambrideeshires for a longwhile so really Good Birthday should not be good enough to win this and also has a low draw shown nothing this season till LTO when finishing strongly behind Ilarab although still beaten easily and a furlong shorter tomorrow..Things have chaged over the week,the rain was forecast 35mm to arrive by today and timorrow,if there's no rain tomorrow it's going to be nearer to gd/fm times today like Kamekos win that race was fast by .58 seconds..Tomorrow if no rain this race will be almost identical ground to last years race when it was fast by .81 seconds,so knowing that Good Birthday likes this ground quick with that run,then that's the small angle i could see,have been through all the market leaders and most of them have been rcing on a lot slower ground although ther forms superior..Good birthday would need at least four or five to underperform but might still run ok if some don't go on the ground,hopefully no rain overnight..Hve tried to find another that likes it rayfast but havn't gone through every runner yet..I may have a look in the morning..A speculatuve bet but maybe would look better if draw is negligible and ground stays the same..

    A farce of a race but a lovely juicy bonus getting the 8th place,will settle for that..




    4.10


    Meu Amor 4/1 Betfred/skybet/hills/ppower/sportsbook 4 and 5 places

    Meu Amor made its debut in the Goodwood maiden i put First Lott up on monday,that one wining easily off 72 on monday,Meu Amor went onto win a maiden after that goodwood race,then on third run last time out a hot nursery at Donny running off 76 beaten 1 1/2ls by Spright with Nazuna in second..Today Nazuna was second in the Group2 to Isabella Giles,Nazuna and Meu Amor were stands side at Donny while Spright was in the middle maybe was an advantage with hannon horse 4th at 150/1,that one runs in tomorrows race as well,Meu Amors got bumped up five pouud for that run for coming third looks harsh but after Nazunas run today then hard to argue with..Would be more worried about the draw,the ground has dried out is going to be on the quick side if no rain and that more often than not favours the high draws..The may hpefully just race up the middle being 2yr olds Meu Amors drawn low in 4..Just a small fancy because of the draw.

    **** me robbed goes farside and wins and the tree high draws come 1,2,3 16,14,17 unreal stiill nice for multiples,what an advanate the stands side must be,a great day today thoigh so can't complain i knew when i did wrte up what cpuld happen..





    4.40


    Arigato 14/1 365/hills 9/1 generally

    It maybe that Arigato has run its races this season beaten 3fs out at York last time out and running really free,but penultimate run at Goodwood was drawn 1 went off 7/2 fav and althoigh finised out the back was stopped five or six times in running,looked like woulv'e been involved in the finish of some sort..Previously this season runs at Newmarket over this trip has been 1/1/4 won off 79 by 91/2ls then beat Blown By win off 87 and probably its best run when 4th in Bunbury Cup,on that form then would be 4-5/1 shot the negative must be its last run worst all season..But is previous form ws so good here all season at these prices can't be left,betting will be interesting stalls are in the middle but if they switch stands side could be drawn well in 9..Tomfre also has a decent c/d record here as well hasn't won this season but plenty of track form if back to form off a dropping mark..


    Haydock 12.55


    Lady Hayes 11/8 365 4/5 betfred/victor


    Lady Hayes made debut at Sailsbury in what looked a very fast time,to me it looked the fasest race on the card and that included a group 3 the runner up light refrain had been beaten several times but did hack up at newcastle earlier i the week and may have imprived for the slightly slower ground..A quick turnaround,i suspect it will either win or bomb out completely,the ground at haydock looks very poor as usual and there was a karl burke horse there thatran today that had a decent speedfigure on gd/sft and never even placed,put down in notebook if it gets beat as this could be a group horse..

    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAABBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMM!!Returns 1/3 am not surprised,almost ha my mex on this one,thats why i hate haydock only just won but its fsr better than that..


    1.30



    Dubai Honour 7/2 365 Orman 6/1 365

    These two don't set a very high standard Dubai Honour was second at chester unlucky in running shouldv'e won not great form but experienced on the ground its last run was quicker than the 0-80 on the chester card for older horses,but that was an apprentices race so not quite as good as it appeared..Orman was second at goodwood on desperate ground to lone eagle that won a nursery at donny next time out off 84..This could be red hot maiden newcomers from hannon,balding,cox dascombe,palmers horse looks like big improver as well maybe try a multiple with the other shorter prices for a thieving bet..anything running to a mark of 85+ will probably beat these two..done mainly for some thieving multiples

    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMM!!Another lovely touch,looked bets to nothing and landed the forecast,horses i that race still had to ru to 85+ at least to beat them ans on poor ground worked out lovely..CSF£17.20..


    Ripon 5.40



    Penny Pot Lane 9/1 ppower/sportsbook 17/2 victor 8/1 sky


    A 7yr old mare now doesn't win too often nowadays,the last time she won was this race last season an apprentuce handicap by 3 1/2ls off 65 tomorrow she runs off 66 with jock Joseph Lyons takes off 5 havn't watched him ride but he's had two winners from 18 rides and 3 places..Pennypot Lane ran ok last time out a weak handicap at ponte was second although same grade on paper,hadn't shown anything on other runs but she did run here in an 0-85 over c/d was only 9th of 15 but was drawn 6 she came stands side and it took her 2 1/2fs to get onto the rail so may have used up several lengths to get that pitch and was eased at finish..Tomorrow she's drawn in 8 so she has ew chances,although this looks a really competitve race and quite a few unexposed,Lady Celias run at hamilton last time out best recent piece of form and looks to be improving..and rasheeq will love the ground running well last two runs,thois easier race.
    Last edited by gigilo; 26th September 2020 at 4:22 PM.

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    Another very good day,two winners a forecast and five places,not bothering tomorrow as unsure of goings so just one for monday so far

    Bath 2.20


    Coleys Koko 7/1 365 13/2 hills 11/2betwat/betfred/victor


    Coleys Koko has the best speedfigure and form in this 0-65 nursery over 5 1/2fs,on debut was fifth at Thirsk over 5fs,probably one of fastest maidens of the season Umm Kulthum won now rated 102 touched off in juddmonte yesteday,Digital second rated 83 ran well at donny recently in huge field finishig 6th..The third Blind Beggar got touched off at haydock on friday by a horse rated 93 ad the 4th Ballintoy Harbour on second run won a maiden easily,the 6th 2ls behind Coleys Koko,Bedford Flyer recent,y won a 0-75 off 69 as well..
    So two runs later could say Coleys Koko has been disappointing on that run,eighth at beverley in a maiden then 4th i a conditions race at musselburugh won by Blackberry,both those runs were on slower ground although only good/gdsfft as opposed to the gd/fm at thirsk where that race was faster tan the 0-85 for older horses on the same card,she now gets in here off 62 the jock bit of a negative does takes off another 5 pound down to just 57..Bath looks like it will be rattling currently gd/fm/fm in places but maybe fm on monday,has a little to prove now but at least got the same ground sires 17% on firm,although quite poor stats over this extended 5fs,tinkler trains if there's possible improvement expected from stable would surely expect this to be heavily bet and vice versa if not..If taken at face value that debut run a mark of 70 would be conservative..interesting runner.
    Last edited by gigilo; 27th September 2020 at 5:32 PM.

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    Metro (28th September 2020)

  24. #10976
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    Was right about the betting was 3/1 this morning drifted to 8.2 and ran its worst ever race in a nusery that was weaker than the three maiden runs,will be ignoring that had no intention of getting invloved stable probably hoping for bigger prices..

  25. #10977
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    Ascot saturday 3.05 Heritahe handicap..


    Raising Sands 10/1 sportsbook/ppower 5 places betway/365 4 places.


    Everyone knows Raising Sands and Ascot loves the track and c/d only had 27 races as an 8yr old saved for these races here when ground gets testing,currently good going but forecast is for somewhere like 30mm between now and saturday,has only run once this season in the Royal Hut Cup only 7th but on wrongside of the track and the other three that raced there finished a long way behind..Gets to run off 107 but Saffie Osbourne takes off 7 that takes it down to 100 and lower than last seasons win off 103,invariably gets bet off the boards here probaly end up going off 6-7/1,there's probably going to be lots of non runners as well if all that rain arrives so could be a cracking trade,may just go off a really stupid price..
    The obvious alternatives are Kynren also a pound lower than one of the big 7f races it won here last season when raising sands was out the back and River Nymph clocked a really fast time at Newbury last time out on soft ground,think all three head the markt at the moment...
    Last edited by gigilo; 30th September 2020 at 1:53 PM.

  26. #10978
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    Avoiding the racing at the moment,not feeling well covid symptoms but no fever yet obviously from my son going back to school could just be flu but very suspect..A couple of token bets in last at newcastle tomorrow..

    Newcastle 8.30


    Lady Nectar 8/1 skybet/ppower/sportsbook/betfred/betway War Whisper 8/1 victor 10/1 365


    Lady nectar has been improving through the season,won a couple of weak races but clocked up a very fast time at thirsk then beaten on softer ging at catterick i thought that would be her undoig last time out on the catterick ru but she ran well in a 0-85 at ponte on virtually heavy ground only beaten 1 3/4ls,switches to the aw plenty of negatuves sire not great on surface or trip she's been running over 6fs tomorrow it's 5fs..so could only be a token bet..Pretty sure there's going to be more to come from her with only eight runs..
    The other War Whisper one i usually put a line through after backing a few times,has only won 3/31 and never won on the aw but rarely gets beat far,has run here twice a 2/4 off 77 in back to back races one a 0-90 the other a 0-80 runs off 71 tomorrow as being as i havn't backed the horse in recent times then will just have another small bet in an ultra competitve raceof which you could make a case fir at least eight in the race.
    Last edited by gigilo; 2nd October 2020 at 12:32 PM.

  27. #10979
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    Couple of small bets in the nusery,might put up a preview of wolves later although can't reall say i like much but one meeting abandoned tomorrow..


    Wolves 7.0


    Sandy Steve 14/1 hills 8/1 365

    A weak 0-65 over 1m4fs not much strong form to go on Ice Canyon has changed stables since Brisbourne retired was never the most reliable but
    plent of form round here,first run back since October 2019 and a second to Bollin Margaret has lots of tailed offs in form in between decent runs very unreliable but obvious ew chance at best,International Law has stepped up in trip last three runs run ok looks as though this trip now suits,ran only saturday night when staying on fourth in a weak 0-70 again obvious ew chances dropped into a 0-65..Was different class to these only around turn of the year running in 0-85s rated in the 70s..
    Sandy steve looks a massive price on some of its form,only won two very poor races on the aw both last season,this season on seasonal debut was second at kempton over 1m4fs in a 0-68 going off 7/2 off 67 other best run was fifth off 69 in a 0-75 beaten 5 3/4ls off 69..Since that run two very poor runs although last run was slioghtly better staying on over 1m2fs beaten 5ls in a 0-70..A big pruce of could just run to its best now off just 63 and five pound claim,but hard to know what to expect..sire stats mediocre..at best


    7.30


    Palistro 12/1 ppower/sportsbook/victor/hills 11/1 generally Onaledge 9/1 365/ppower/sportsbook generally


    A 0-65 Nursery not much strong form to go on,all the aw form horses head the market so will have a couplr of small bets on two others Onaledge ha had five runs form mediocre did win a 0-65 at yarmouth on soft ground but was only off 58,that looked a pretty weak race then ran in a far better race at leicester beaten 5 1/4ls in a 0-75..Tomorrow gets to run on the aw for the first time back in a 0-65,sire stars are good Tornado 25% at track 24% on tapeta and 50% over 5fs on the aw so a possibility of some improvement on this surface..
    Similarly Polastri just three runs,on debut was second ti Brazen beau rated thats rated 73 so was a decent debut 1 1/4ls behind,then a poor run at ponte and last time out ran in a 0-85 nusery at hamilton,reared in the stalls and beaten 5 1/2ls,again sire stats are decent 14% at wolves 15% over 5fs a mark of just 63,could easily go off favourite on that last run and with improvement to come..

    14/1 victor/ppower/sportsbook looks very smelly considerig whst its done and from Fahey stable..
    Last edited by gigilo; 5th October 2020 at 10:44 AM.

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    Nightmare at the moment just too much racing to try and narrow stuff down,so just having some token bets maybe try siome thieving multiples just quarter stakes for me lots on non runners on desperate ground so hardly worth too much risk..

    Leicester 3.20


    Majalaat 12/1 ppower/sportsbook/victor


    Majalaat has had seven runs all in 2020 as a 4yr old,back in june over c/d was third to Aristocratic Lady and Musicality they are now rated 98 and 94,it maybe the horse needs fast ground like that race,although two of the three next runs have been very poor..The only decent run was at ayr on similar ground to tomorrows fifth of eleven beaten 4 1/4ls in a 0-80,tomorriw drops into a 0-70 off a ten pound lower mark with claimer taking off the five...If stable think this ground is what it wants you'd expect these prices to collapse,out of new approach decent sire on soft ground and 6fs and at the track,betting will surely tell the story off this mark..

    Got evens 4 places so stakes back plenty of savers today on 4th places...

    3.50


    Inexes 4/1 365 Rasheeq 6/1 365

    Inexes and Raheeq infrequent winners nowadays but dio like softer ground Inexes won over c/d last season on heavy off 69 same mark tomorrow
    and third last time out in this grade at hamilton,obvious place chances but no more confident than that..Rsheeqs profile is far worse only ever won
    2/35 on turf so expecting it to win tomorrow would be a bit fortunate,but at leat has been running well and likes this ground,two fourths back to back in 0-75s last two runs and back into a 0-75 jock takes off five so now off same mark as winning at newbury,place chances again running to that level..


    Catterick 1.30


    Madreselva 3/1 victor/ppower/sportsbook/sky

    More desperate ground at catterick unsure if ground will suit Mdreselva sire stats say should be ok,but all its form sio far like win last time out was on fast ground,has finished behind cuban breeze also in tomkrrow race but looked a little unlucky in running and better off in the weights with it..
    Madreselva has run on gd/sft at catterick coming second to Acklam Express that looks great form,but having checked the time of the race it was probably onky about average time but was only its second ever run,the third Two cop bob is now rated 74 after winning a nursery at newcastle recently and finished over 3ls behind Maldreselva..Last time out it won a maiden but horses it wasn't entitled too five horses were covered by 2 1/2ls and the second and third were rated 89 and 79 it looks false form,and the handicapper agreed by giving it no rise still on 71..As long as handling the ground then decent place chances,thoiught Rooster was interesting runner upto to a 94 rated runner at wolves bee running on quick ground and softer may suit...


    3.0


    Rebel Redemption 15/2 victor/hills/skybet 7/1 generally

    Rebel Redemption ran a decent race here in a slightky better race a 0-65 when second to restless endeavour,then was second sat hamilton in another 0-65 although that ws a weak 3yrold handicap and then last time out at ripon came up against a horse that was thriwn in marks choics won by 6ls..Was beaten 9ls in that racealthough Pennypotlane in second beaten 6ls won today in a 0-75,the negative could be the ground being nearer heavy like the horses heading the market tomorrow,they have been placed recently on desperate ground..if it does go on tomorriws ground like al the other picks obvious place chances..I looked at the times of the day Jill Rose won and she won the second division the first division was a second quick which had B fifty two running third,purely based on those times there should not be alot between those two and B fifth two is 18/1 so might be worth a token bet/forecasts...Hijacked looks the one to beat because it was runner up on desperate ground last time out and its division was only slightly slower than the first div won by montalvan,maybe add in for firecasts..

    Very nice b fifyty two non runner so got forecast and tricast adding in jill roise,form worked out pefect nice little touch..£27csf tricast £50 thought it was going to be a blank today




    3.30

    //
    Round the island 7/2 victor/hills/betway/betfred Highland Acclaim 10/1 victor 9/1 sportsbook/ppower


    Two veterans who this season proved themselves here on desperate ground,although one bombed out on next visit here Highland Acclaim getting let and Round The island looks like msybe 7fs round here would be better..Highland acclaim won over c/d in a 0-70 on heavy off 58,but then bombed out in Jill Roses race next time out,if it reproduces the previous run then would be the one to beat,steangely no one expected highland Acclaim to repeat that run in that race went off 4/1 even though as explained above was a really poor race..Obviously unreliable,but obvious place chances as long as doesn't get left..Round the island has always been better on faster ground,but last two runs both here have been here one on desperate ground in a 0-70 over 7fs..That race was slow by over 10 seconds,the negstive is will the 6fs be too short,there's a chance of something pinching this from the front so will go back thriugh the race and maybe tomorriow back another as havn't had time to look at every runner in detail.Looking at the lack of pace and it maybe that Prissy miss could get an uncontested lea,both roundtheisland and highland acclaim invariablt get left behind,9/1 one of in running..



    Swell 7.50


    Serious attitudude 4/1 victor hills




    Looks like catterik is a waste of time,another farce two horses come stands side in maldresevas race miles clrear,i can't be bothered to do lay the bets off just let them run only had peanutts on anyway,waste of time gussing whats happening there..
    Last edited by gigilo; 6th October 2020 at 3:25 PM.

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