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Thread: Daily picks.

  1. #10961
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    Wolves 6.20


    Critical Thinking 14/1 365

    Don't think i've ever backed thios horse when winning,had 60 races no wins in 12 n the turf but 7 on the aw from 48,runs off a mark of 61 lowest since may 2018 most of the wins coming over 7fs,so a 0-60 7fs race wouldv'e looked good after its last run..Went off 40/1 finishing 4th in a 0-75 off 62 LTO beaten 2 1/2ls,time was similar to the first div on same card so ran well,tomorrow steps upto 1m1/2 nowhere near as good over this trip last run here was poor over this distance and previous to that was second in a 0-65 over this trip..That was a 0-65 but beaten 5ls but was a very weak race running off 59 tomorrow off 61 with claimer taking off 5,just looks worth a small bet although i suspect he might halve in price so probably a decent trade in there..Worth noting for return to 7fs,as this isn't its best trip..
    Scoffsman would be interesting if fit 287 days off just the nine runs not won on the aw but a decent third here in a better race last season,actually went off 3/1 favourite when last seen and refused to race,has dropped himself out a couple of times as well,obvious ability and would have a very decent ew chance if fit and actually came out of the stalls..
    Last edited by gigilo; 13th September 2020 at 6:35 PM.

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  4. #10962
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    Watering so will be small stakes as done form on gd/fm ground..




    Thirsk 1.15


    Victory Heights 5/2 Billian 11/4

    Will be disappointing if one of these doesn't win although always a bit eyecatching when entered in these auction stakes races instead of something far better,Victory heights is a good example only three runs and a wind op already so there msybe a ?..The other Billian won at Beverley on secod run,the time of the race only .03 slower than the class 4 for older horses,if victory heights doesn't turn up then this would be the one on that form..Both decent places at prices...

    My suspivcions were right,although betting them ew was small loss 71 rated the winner,beaten sh/hd and a nck sps 13/8 and 15/8 some great trades on these..



    1.45


    Air To Air 5/2 365 betfred 4 places Babe Alicious 9/1 generally 4 places betfred


    A 0-70 nursery over 7fs a bit of a guessing game,Air To Air got left on debut at wolves made loads of ground up even though still beaten 6ls but was respectable first run was upsoides recent winner that hacked up at wolves recently Denzils Laughing won off 60 but hacked up on sunday..
    Then on second run again at Chelmsford dwelt again making late ground into fourth,the fifth won next time out Faustus,doesn't look chucked in off 66 but the trip looks right suspect it may drift as horses that top the weights have better form but on soft ground..
    Babe Alicious just the two runs,a decent debut at Cateririck gave the field 8ls start and not given a hard race,finished a nk behind a horse that has since finisghed second in a handicap,looked far better than that form,then next time out ran at Hamilton set an impossible task beaten over 7ls but over 5fs again and on soft ground..That looked a decent race the first two were newcomers but the third Burning Cagh was fourth in Flying Childers on saturday..been given a mark of 60 could be well in if trip and ground suit..Think the mark looks decent,but 7fs on fast ground bit of guessing involved.

    Ait to air misses break by 5ls,unbelievable today thats three picks all done on the line,ridiculous thankfully i do these ew so only small loss again..no luck today,another monster trade ended up 4/6..


    2.50


    Spiorad 11/2 generally Club Wexford 20/1 ppower/victor/sportsbook 18/1 skybet/888sport/365


    Spiorad just the twelve runs three wins won by 5ls over c/d August 2019 off 79,then won off 84 at thirsk upped in trips in the 90s unplaced twice,
    penultimate run was third in a 0-88 at York but flopped here last time out,now back down to 86 in a class 4 forst time since the wins..Not a great pruce based on last run,but right track class and mark..
    Club Wexford has been running ok in decent races and on the wrong ground,second to Glasses up off 90 early season in a 0-95 then soft ground runs,gors on soft but not its best srface was even third in a 0-95 at haydock as well off 83 and ran welll considering the chester run was a 0-105 on slow ground beaten 5 1/2ls..Was probably a little better than that form as well,but the last time out at thirsk flopped,the ground looks right timorrow and size of field but i was waiting for the ayr card to be runing won two class 2s there last season..The other big negative Roger Fells having a nightmare season 0/40,so probably worth following Club Wezford for a few runs,and those ayr cards.Dawaleeb doesn't win too often but last time out was third in the race Club Wexford ran in and decent place chances at worst,loads of decent placed form in this grdae and better.Really Club Wexford shouldn't be going off bigger than 6-7/1 if stable expect it to run to form..monster trade..or so it should be.

    Farce of a race they go no pace and the total rag win,defintely not trying with club wexford was out the back drifted from 6/1 to 14s on betfair,surprised wasn't entered at Ayr this week maybe it is havn'r chreced,and spoirad came out awkward in the stalls shouldv'e won i really hate redcar bar that one meeting a saturday ago..

    3.20


    Lady Nectar 7/1 hills Normandy Barriere 7/1 365/hills/skybet/betfred/unibet 7/1 5 places 5 places 15/2 ppower/sportsbook/victor


    Lady Nectar looks outclassed on her form but the time she won on gd/fm at thirsk looked decent that day she won easily of 65 carrying 9-5 but her winning time was only .22 slower than Another Batt winning the 0-95,bit to prove now after flopping at Catterick but based on that time in a 0-75 as long as the grounds quick then she should be competitive oiff 73..
    Will give Normandy Barriere one chance,i used to back it all the time havn't backed it in recent time has been on the downgrade,hasn't won since
    May 2017 but last season was still rated 96,a second to Swindler at Ascot off 87 on fast ground,its always looked a fast ground horse and from what i can see looking at last years times at the tracks the Swindler run was the last time it ran on geunine gd/fm..They ae watering at Redcar but hopefully will be gd/fm by the off giving it this one chance.
    Last edited by gigilo; 15th September 2020 at 3:32 PM.

  5. #10963
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    Wolves 6.20


    Critical Thinking 14/1 365

    Don't think i've ever backed thios horse when winning,had 60 races no wins in 12 n the turf but 7 on the aw from 48,runs off a mark of 61 lowest since may 2018 most of the wins coming over 7fs,so a 0-60 7fs race wouldv'e looked good after its last run..Went off 40/1 finishing 4th in a 0-75 off 62 LTO beaten 2 1/2ls,time was similar to the first div on same card so ran well,tomorrow steps upto 1m1/2 nowhere near as good over this trip last run here was poor over this distance and previous to that was second in a 0-65 over this trip..That was a 0-65 but beaten 5ls but was a very weak race running off 59 tomorrow off 61 with claimer taking off 5,just looks worth a small bet although i suspect he might halve in price so probably a decent trade in there..Worth noting for return to 7fs,as this isn't its best trip..
    Scoffsman would be interesting if fit 287 days off just the nine runs not won on the aw but a decent third here in a better race last season,actually went off 3/1 favourite when last seen and refused to race,has dropped himself out a couple of times as well,obvious ability and would have a very decent ew chance if fit and actually came out of the stalls..
    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!A nother stonker!!! had to get on the place there with the non runnrer what a tiuch,worked out beautifully went no pace and nicked it.!!!RELENTLESS!!.
    Last edited by gigilo; 14th September 2020 at 6:29 PM.

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  7. #10964
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    Yeeeeeeoooooooooo.
    Go on my son. Had 20 ew on that. Booooom

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  9. #10965
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    Beverley 5.05


    Ifton 7/1 365 Grouseman 7/1 365 betfred 4 places 13/2 sportsbook/ppower/betfred 4 places

    Worst race of the day probably,a classified race for horses rated upto 55 faourute Stone Mason could be well in was rated in the 70s at one point now with Appleby tomorrow first time pieces,hard to know what trip suits best ran ok in a 0-65 handicap at Donny staying on one paced,but lasr time out at swell led and didn't stay although a 0-65 beaten 4 1/2ls.. A guessing game but might be worth adding at least for forecasts Tyler heard takes off another three as well it has been in the best races,so obvious favourite at the weights..
    Iftona a seventeen runer maiden,but thats how bad this race is but already this season has been third in a 0-60 at leicester,last season had three places two in 0-60s and one in a 0-70 also has a fourth in a 0-75 at kempton going this way round..if it runs to the majority of its form i can't see it being unplaced even if not winning,the obvoous negative Ruth Carrs having a nighmare..
    Grouseman five runs,first handicap run was here on fourth run August 12th,not a bad race for the grade a 0-65 staying on beaten 2 1/4ls the third was a previois winner that had beaten Bollin Margaret a winner again yesterday,the winner of that race Jupiter race has won again and the fifth directly behind Grouseman was second next time out in a 0-75..The time of that Beverley race was quicker than the other two c/d handicaps as well,but as with these unreliable types came out and run last at wolves last time out,si back here but this time drops back rtwo furlongs,doesn't look right on the 1m2f run but compared to most in this race was respectable form..Small interesrs in a desperate race.

    Got doneover by the watering again boredering on gd/sft why they keep doing it,just ridiculous race was slow by 6 seconds the last time grouseman ran there over 2fs further the race was slow by 2.35 seconds,strubg out like washing a complete farce..good/gdfm the going was yesterdat and they watered it..Just impossible to win when they persist doing this..will be the same all week as well,better off waitung tioll weather rurns on the turf to gd/sft/.
    Last edited by gigilo; 16th September 2020 at 5:23 PM.

  10. #10966
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    Chelmsford 7.30

    Parkncilla 10/1 365 7/1 skybet Amor Fati 9/2 365


    Both C/D winners Amor Fati 4/26 on the aw but hasn't won since July 2019 and that was on the turf on the aw April 2019 dropped to lowest mark since winning over C/D in March 2019,Kirby rode it that day and has a record of 1/1/2/2 when riding..The obvious negatives are there to see unreliable,but like last time out should've won a 0-65,probably going to need a decent pace as well,not guaranteed crystal pallas cat will lead and
    could do with Jeanette May taking it on..It will be the same for Parkncilla needs them to go quick,for such a lowgrade horse not a bad aw record 2/12
    and a couple of places, won back to back races over c/d last season off 49 then 52 but was also second offf 57 and 59 then january was fourth off 62 in a 0-70..Three poor runs after that although ran ok last time out here over inadequate 7fs,staying on in a 0-60,as Amor Fati even though gets the right trip needs a decent pace,Saffie Osborne also rides a negative but does take off 7 on last seasons form would be no bigger than 4/1 to win this race..Nearly all its form last season was in better races than this,hopefully plenty of pace to suit the pair..
    Last edited by gigilo; 17th September 2020 at 1:49 AM.

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  12. #10967
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    As suspected overwatered at ponte although gutted as liked the 1,2 in the last and by then had dried out quite a bit,don't know whats going on at ayr the grounds desperate yet hasn't rained for days i was trying to pre empt the form and do it on gd/gdfm seems highky unlikeky thats going to happen looking at todays times,maybe get good ground by saturday very strange the going there..Can only be small interests,it's that time of year when forms changing and watering good ground in Autumn makes no sense..Another race today a pick gettig left miles Parknacilla sees to be every other race at the minute,luck is desperate and the other Amor Fati traded 1.5 as well..

    Ayr 1.40

    Invincibly 10/30 victor/hills generally Mcmerry Jim 7/2 victor/hills

    Invincibly ran a decent time at redcar beaten by Alpha rose by 3ls, but that had finished second on debut and had previous experience,that was on very slow ground at Thirsk it looks like simlar ground to Ayrs tomorrow,the class three handicap on the card at thirsk was only .80 quicker so it looks like Invincibly sets a decent standard..The other runner maybe one for the future,made its debut at swell to a previous winner and that horse Kool Mee Dee has won again off 77,the time at swell backed this up but the negative is the sire The Last Lion, has had just 1/24 runners very poor very strange for a horse that beat blue point..If this shows nothing tomorrow looks like it will be heading back to fibresand or an other surface..Danny tudhope rides one for michael bell and thats been entered in a group 2so possobly a lot more to come



    2.10


    Gumdrop 11/2 generally

    Looks like fav Wobwobwob was set up for this two weeks,big gamble at Redcar on monday and now entered here off just 68,was 2 1/2ls quicker than an older handicap on the same card gets in here off 68 looks nearer to an 80 horse toi me the sires had 6/34 runners the question mark could be the ground 0/5 on soft but 2/9 on gd/sft looked like soft grounf to me today looks desperate..Maybe a little saver/forecat with Gumdrop/Showalong,Gumdrops looking a little exposed but won a 0-85 at chester by over 3ls,time looked respectable the seconds been placed again and the thirds won a 0-75..Obvious place chances,just a lot of unexposed runners in the race..from top stables.,including the easterby runner showalong i put it up last time out hacked up ar redcar and could be chucked in again on ground it definitely likes,will be surprised of winner doesn't come from these three..


    3.20


    Last Empire 3/1 sportsbook/ppower Back To Brussels NR now 4/1 365/hills 7/2 generally

    Been some shocking results in these sort of races at Ayr in the past listed races for fillies Back to Brussells has just come up a non runner,Last Empire was fourth in this last year as a 3yr old so at least has experience of the track,invariably misses the break..Looks like might be improving two runs on softer ground this season a sixth to liberty beach at Haydock and a second to Dakota Gold in the beverley bullett stand out,needs to not concede too much start..Magical Journey and Queens gift have run well in these listed fillies races before if favourite flops..


    4.55


    Pacino 6/1 ppower/sportsbook/hills

    Vive La Difference maybe have been aimed at this race,was an eyecatcher in the legends race at Donny last week and now runs off just 67,lowest mark since november 2017,was sixth here staying on in a 0-75 last season off 73 now off just 67,easterbys winning everythjng he's running,also Mustaqbal i put up at ripon after a massive eyecatching run here in a better race on simiajr ground..That one if repeating that Ayr form would have ew chances as well,but is drawn in the carpark,Pacino 1/18 on turf never won over the trip but last two from three runs have been in better races a third at haydock in a 0-78 on faster ground and then last time out a second in a 0-80 at chester..The ground there was very soft and similar to tomorrows it has never run well on that ground before so will have to repeat that firm,does look a bit odd but obvious place chances if it does with Billy Garrity taking off another five.


    5.25


    Cassy 5/2 /betfredhills 4places Ralphy Boy Two 12/1 365 15/2 hills 4 places

    Casy O won a 0-85 today at Ayr straight out again tomorrow in weaker race,was actually the first div of two divs and a second quicker,obviously conditions suit so the obvious one to beat presuming it runs,is only two pound higher than when fourth at York in a 0-83,i presume its just the conditions that have benefitted it..just seven lifetime..
    Ralphy Boy Two just a 3yr old eleven runs,has run some good races this season sprinting last season second off 71 over 6fs on heavy ground,came back this season and ran fourth of eight at haydock on soft ground in a 0-85,three runs since all respectable 3/2/5 all at Hamilton
    3rd in a 078,2nd in a 0-85 on soft ground and 5th in a 0-75 over 1m3fs just too far,off 70 tomorrow in a 0-70 could easily run well as long as it's not a Hamilton or right handed specialist.

    4/1 generally




    Kempton 5.10

    Daphne May 8/1 generally

    Bagara is the obvious one if it repeats its Sandown 0-75 run,dropping into just a 0-65,hannon has two in the race so presume this is his main runner and obvious looking favourite...Daphne May from smaller trainer doesn't have many winners but running at 13% and aw 3yr old races 2/9
    Daphne May easily beaten last time out at Redcar fourth beaten 5ls but desperate ground,its debut run beaten 4ls at Wolves staying on over 6fs it could be well handicapped time looked ok winner Tattoo is rated 75,the second let the form down in a maiden at wolves last week although was probably as good as this race if not better..The third Cuban Breeze won off 71 at wolves two weeks ago so rated 76 while Daphne May gts in here off just 61,looks a fair mark but when i checked sire stats on the aw although good on Tapeta and Fibresand the stats are poor on this surface and track running at less than 10%..maybe one for notebook back at wolves but will have a small bet just incase takes to it..


    8.15


    Run After Genesis 15/2 skybet 7/1 generally 4 places Lithario 14/1 sky/sportsbook/ppower

    Again have ended picking a carpark draw in Run With Genesis,trainers 0/27 with 4yr olds on the aw this season so plrenty of negatives although he has had 2/5 winners recently Run With Genesis gets to run off lowest mark since winning off 60 over 7fs here back in March 2019 looked a 7f horse till ran over tomorriws c.d when third off 65 in a 0-70 got stopped in run..that was november 2019..Came back from break and ran at lingfield on the turf on straight track,finishing 5th staying on strongly only beaten 1 3/4ls,that was a 0-70 but very weak race,that last c/d run here at kenpton it looks like these 0-65s are his grade or maybe slightky higher 0-70s but the draw is the negative tomorrow..
    Lothario 3/14 on the aw and 4 places,0/7 on the turf and 0 places over a mile on the aw is/ 2/6/5/3/1/8/ although hasn't won since August 2019 a 0-75 off 70,this season four runs two on turf and the twi aw runs wrong trips so forgiveable,tomorrow off 65 and that's its lowest mark since march 2019..An interesting runner if anywhere near its best,although again poor draw in 9,at leat in right race and right prices..Takeonefortheeam regular here,been running well 3/19 won off 63 in june over c./d and last time out ran well enough in a 0-75 beaten 3 3/4ls,looks as good as the other two could replace one of those with this one i have no preference as its c/d form is very consistent around 15/2..Edward greatrex rides,hes won on her before over c/d but hasn't rode in recent times on known c/d form these three stand out..

    Think i will resign myself to not betting at ayr when the grounds like this,hardky anythigs going on the track most of the horses i did were beat after 3/4fs the ground is so slow it must just be really tacky because the results make absolutely no sense the first winner had 7ls to find on the second and the runner up was having its first run on there...A complete guessing game..
    Last edited by gigilo; 18th September 2020 at 5:21 PM.

  13. #10968
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    Small stakes for me a few horses at wolves that could run well but have had plenty of chances



    Wolves 4.40


    Source Of Light 11/4 365 Starseed 10/3 365


    I put Source Of Light up last time out here in a handicap,it made its debut at Hamilton beaten 2ls by Blackberry in a really fast time,then came second at hamilton on sifter ground 68 rated horse behind it in third,then went off 11/10 fav on soft ground again.It then came tio wolves off .69 and went off a huge price 28/1,something must have happenred from the debut run the time the form everything about that race was good but two runs later drited to 28/1 from early pruces of 7/1,and tomorrow drops into a seller..Even stranger that the stable havn't even given it another chance on turf on faster griud,that debut run it says the ground was gd/sdt which it wasn't it was only .50 above standard at Hamilton,something has either happened to the horse so in seller or they have massively underestimated it's first run,that doesn't seem feasible they could have a 75 horse and lose it tomorrow..Stands out a mile on its form,but i still don't understand wht they havn't given it a run on qick turf after only four runs..
    Starseeed is second in on form,but even that could be supect as tomorrow 6fs it has some ok form on the aw was 2 1/2ls behind Electric Blue ad that got touched off at catterick today in a 0-75 nursery,they are the obvious two at the weights and known form but very strange no handicap routes for horses with just four runs..

    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAABBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!So they wre just setting that race up for it,i suspected it very syrange though maybe they don't relaize how goodthios horse could be on the turf forecast as well..max bets in that race csf 6.89 Exacta 7 best betting race of the day..


    Newbury 1.05


    Mithras 4/5 hills

    Mithras gave the field a 15ls start on debut at Sandown the psce held up and the front three looked decent,eventually finishing fourth winners since been beaten third in a listed race and the second third and fifth have won..That race maybe not be quite as good as first thoight even though is backed up by the time,but Mithras looked the best horse in the race,a maiden tomorrow if it gets beat and runs too form it will be beaten by a group horse..

    All crwaled from the stalls and a freak result,you can ignore that may as well chuck mithras in the deep end next time out and get a decent price..and a decent pace


    Wolves

    7.15


    You're Cool 14/1 365 Dark Side Dream 7/1 ppower/sportsbook

    Dark Side Dream could only be a token pick,stable no winners for 190 days,thoroughky exposed 8yr old althoigh last two runs here has been 2nd and 3rd so has ew chances,wouldn't be a total shock if Jorvick prince ra ok for the Appleby stable either a pound lower than last win over c/d didn't run to bad in a 0-75 over c/d when beaen 23/4ls back in february 11/1..You're Cool another trainer that's in desperate form Derek Shaw no winners for 194 days and most them are finishing last,Lewis Edmunds always rudes this horse especially when it wins ad he's on Dark Side Dream..so it looks like he's switched to that runner because of lack of confidence..Luke Morrios is riding,looks like he's just ridig anything going,and the horse bombed out here just five days ago..only positve was the run befire that on the 2nd of September got cut up from the break
    over this c/d did well to be only get beat 2 1/2ls and that was a 0-70...the second lord of the Glen has won since as well..It would be speculatuve with those jockey bookings,but if trying it could easily bounce back ad run into a pplace..


    Wolves 6.15

    Dancing Feet 7/2 365/hills Amber Island 13/2 sportsbook/ppower

    Dancing Feet could still be an interesting runner,in this 0-85 6f race in February on second ever run it won here by 6ls in a time of 1m 12.73 a vert fast time on the same card that night a clas 2 for horses rated upto 105 it was slower by .01 and carried 7 pound more tha the 87 rated concierge
    on that run on onky second time at the track running to the low 90s..Has run in a couplr of 7f listed races on the turf beaten easily,and a 6f handicap gradually getting into wealer races then last time out beaten over 7fs by Delilah Park at kempton in this grade...That run suggests its nowhere near as good as just 7 months ago,but have to try it back on tapeta over its c/d win off just 83..
    Amber Island only six lifetime runs,was 40/1 third here over 7fs recentky staying on rally strongly,unsure why they've dropped it to 6fs but could easily progress to be competitve in this slightly better race,horse came from Apleby stable and adn't run for 7 months so decenr run..

    7.45


    Ustath 15/2 365

    Even more speculative than the previous race Ustath has shown very little in recent time,still only 12 lifetime runs 5 o the aw one win April 2019 won by 6ls over this c/d and absolutely nothing since,has been in the last two nearly every run since..Ran a little better last time out in a 0-65,beaten 4 1/2ls drops into a 0-60 would be very speculatuve but thats the only glimmer of showing something in awhiile and Roger Fell actually had a winner since after horrendous run..


    Newmarket 3.15


    Dancing In The Woods 10/1 unibet 9/1 hills 8/1 generally 17/2 victor/betway


    An unreliable type although plenty of ability,1/8 wins likes gd/gdfm ground two poor runs this season with one decent one here over c/d run in a respectable time coming second to Broughtons Gold and 3 1/2ls back to the third a couple of winners have come out of that 0-90..If can get out on terms from decent draw could run well in a 0-85,but hard to catch rightmbut track trip and ground suits,..

    4th but got stake back evens for 4 places,so no damage..
    Last edited by gigilo; 19th September 2020 at 4:51 PM.

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  15. #10969
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    Quote Originally Posted by gigilo View Post
    As suspected overwatered at ponte although gutted as liked the 1,2 in the last and by then had dried out quite a bit,don't know whats going on at ayr the grounds desperate yet hasn't rained for days i was trying to pre empt the form and do it on gd/gdfm seems highky unlikeky thats going to happen looking at todays times,maybe get good ground by saturday very strange the going there..Can only be small interests,it's that time of year when forms changing and watering good ground in Autumn makes no sense..Another race today a pick gettig left miles Parknacilla sees to be every other race at the minute,luck is desperate and the other Amor Fati traded 1.5 as well..

    Ayr 1.40

    Invincibly 10/30 victor/hills generally Mcmerry Jim 7/2 victor/hills

    Invincibly ran a decent time at redcar beaten by Alpha rose by 3ls, but that had finished second on debut and had previous experience,that was on very slow ground at Thirsk it looks like simlar ground to Ayrs tomorrow,the class three handicap on the card at thirsk was only .80 quicker so it looks like Invincibly sets a decent standard..The other runner maybe one for the future,made its debut at swell to a previous winner and that horse Kool Mee Dee has won again off 77,the time at swell backed this up but the negative is the sire The Last Lion, has had just 1/24 runners very poor very strange for a horse that beat blue point..If this shows nothing tomorrow looks like it will be heading back to fibresand or an other surface..Danny tudhope rides one for michael bell and thats been entered in a group 2so possobly a lot more to come



    2.10


    Gumdrop 11/2 generally

    Looks like fav Wobwobwob was set up for this two weeks,big gamble at Redcar on monday and now entered here off just 68,was 2 1/2ls quicker than an older handicap on the same card gets in here off 68 looks nearer to an 80 horse toi me the sires had 6/34 runners the question mark could be the ground 0/5 on soft but 2/9 on gd/sft looked like soft grounf to me today looks desperate..Maybe a little saver/forecat with Gumdrop/Showalong,Gumdrops looking a little exposed but won a 0-85 at chester by over 3ls,time looked respectable the seconds been placed again and the thirds won a 0-75..Obvious place chances,just a lot of unexposed runners in the race..from top stables.,including the easterby runner showalong i put it up last time out hacked up ar redcar and could be chucked in again on ground it definitely likes,will be surprised of winner doesn't come from these three..


    3.20


    Last Empire 3/1 sportsbook/ppower Back To Brussels NR now 4/1 365/hills 7/2 generally

    Been some shocking results in these sort of races at Ayr in the past listed races for fillies Back to Brussells has just come up a non runner,Last Empire was fourth in this last year as a 3yr old so at least has experience of the track,invariably misses the break..Looks like might be improving two runs on softer ground this season a sixth to liberty beach at Haydock and a second to Dakota Gold in the beverley bullett stand out,needs to not concede too much start..Magical Journey and Queens gift have run well in these listed fillies races before if favourite flops..


    4.55


    Pacino 6/1 ppower/sportsbook/hills

    Vive La Difference maybe have been aimed at this race,was an eyecatcher in the legends race at Donny last week and now runs off just 67,lowest mark since november 2017,was sixth here staying on in a 0-75 last season off 73 now off just 67,easterbys winning everythjng he's running,also Mustaqbal i put up at ripon after a massive eyecatching run here in a better race on simiajr ground..That one if repeating that Ayr form would have ew chances as well,but is drawn in the carpark,Pacino 1/18 on turf never won over the trip but last two from three runs have been in better races a third at haydock in a 0-78 on faster ground and then last time out a second in a 0-80 at chester..The ground there was very soft and similar to tomorrows it has never run well on that ground before so will have to repeat that firm,does look a bit odd but obvious place chances if it does with Billy Garrity taking off another five.


    5.25


    Cassy 5/2 /betfredhills 4places Ralphy Boy Two 12/1 365 15/2 hills 4 places

    Casy O won a 0-85 today at Ayr straight out again tomorrow in weaker race,was actually the first div of two divs and a second quicker,obviously conditions suit so the obvious one to beat presuming it runs,is only two pound higher than when fourth at York in a 0-83,i presume its just the conditions that have benefitted it..just seven lifetime..
    Ralphy Boy Two just a 3yr old eleven runs,has run some good races this season sprinting last season second off 71 over 6fs on heavy ground,came back this season and ran fourth of eight at haydock on soft ground in a 0-85,three runs since all respectable 3/2/5 all at Hamilton
    3rd in a 078,2nd in a 0-85 on soft ground and 5th in a 0-75 over 1m3fs just too far,off 70 tomorrow in a 0-70 could easily run well as long as it's not a Hamilton or right handed specialist.

    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!F cuk me a winner at Ayr,lovely drift 4/1 5.78 on the faor,gone from disaster too completely turned dat around,great stuff,tragic stuff that ayr meeting..

    4/1 generally




    Kempton 5.10

    Daphne May 8/1 generally

    Bagara is the obvious one if it repeats its Sandown 0-75 run,dropping into just a 0-65,hannon has two in the race so presume this is his main runner and obvious looking favourite...Daphne May from smaller trainer doesn't have many winners but running at 13% and aw 3yr old races 2/9
    Daphne May easily beaten last time out at Redcar fourth beaten 5ls but desperate ground,its debut run beaten 4ls at Wolves staying on over 6fs it could be well handicapped time looked ok winner Tattoo is rated 75,the second let the form down in a maiden at wolves last week although was probably as good as this race if not better..The third Cuban Breeze won off 71 at wolves two weeks ago so rated 76 while Daphne May gts in here off just 61,looks a fair mark but when i checked sire stats on the aw although good on Tapeta and Fibresand the stats are poor on this surface and track running at less than 10%..maybe one for notebook back at wolves but will have a small bet just incase takes to it..

    KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!Talk about well handicapped,crazy hardly a penny for it either,that's the beauty of small trainrs on the aw...


    8.15


    Run After Genesis 15/2 skybet 7/1 generally 4 places Lithario 14/1 sky/sportsbook/ppower

    Again have ended picking a carpark draw in Run With Genesis,trainers 0/27 with 4yr olds on the aw this season so plrenty of negatives although he has had 2/5 winners recently Run With Genesis gets to run off lowest mark since winning off 60 over 7fs here back in March 2019 looked a 7f horse till ran over tomorriws c.d when third off 65 in a 0-70 got stopped in run..that was november 2019..Came back from break and ran at lingfield on the turf on straight track,finishing 5th staying on strongly only beaten 1 3/4ls,that was a 0-70 but very weak race,that last c/d run here at kenpton it looks like these 0-65s are his grade or maybe slightky higher 0-70s but the draw is the negative tomorrow..
    Lothario 3/14 on the aw and 4 places,0/7 on the turf and 0 places over a mile on the aw is/ 2/6/5/3/1/8/ although hasn't won since August 2019 a 0-75 off 70,this season four runs two on turf and the twi aw runs wrong trips so forgiveable,tomorrow off 65 and that's its lowest mark since march 2019..An interesting runner if anywhere near its best,although again poor draw in 9,at leat in right race and right prices..Takeonefortheeam regular here,been running well 3/19 won off 63 in june over c./d and last time out ran well enough in a 0-75 beaten 3 3/4ls,looks as good as the other two could replace one of those with this one i have no preference as its c/d form is very consistent around 15/2..Edward greatrex rides,hes won on her before over c/d but hasn't rode in recent times on known c/d form these three stand out..

    That last race was unreal takeonefirthetean trades 1.44 with lithario trading 3s,runoutofgenesis miles out the back,they both,finish out of the frame and runoutofgenesis gets third,can't believe what i saw there untreal stuff got 10/1 the 3rd 15/2 the 4th so no loss on the race bar some firecast...was paying 4 places

    Think i will resign myself to not betting at ayr when the grounds like this,hardky anythigs going on the track most of the horses i did were beat after 3/4fs the ground is so slow it must just be really tacky because the results make absolutely no sense the first winner had 7ls to find on the second and the runner up was having its first run on there...A complete guessing game..
    Last edited by gigilo; 18th September 2020 at 8:26 PM.

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    Leicester 2.0


    First Lott 9/1 365 15/2 betway/victor/skybet 7/1 ppower/sportsbook/888sport

    A decent debut at Goodwood in 6f maiden,was fift beaten 2 3/4ls,running green was dropped out from the tree drawn whilst the first four were pretty prominent,she aso seemed to not hadle the track,the winners rated 80 the second.,third and fourth all won on next runs now rated 95,76 and
    80 Meu Amor went off fav in a the big nursery at donny last week finising syrongly in 3rd and the second Illykato wasfifth to Umm Kulthum yesterday..First Lott flopped next time out at Newbury over 7fs on soft ground,back to 6fs running off a mark of 73,should be winning races at somepoint,she does look a bit quirky so may have to follow her for a few runs.Follow suit has rock solid form and Dirty rascal bar last run form was also rock solid..Could well go off 9/2-5/1 ish decent trade.
    Last edited by gigilo; Yesterday at 9:04 PM.

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