What are you backing Today?

[Simpson Jersey]

Really like the look of Fire Fighting today 3.50 Lingfield. Ran 3rd behind todays fav Petite Jack 1st time out, but barely had a race, race was run at a dawdle which clearly wouldn't suit him, got done for toe at the bend when race developed into a sprint, but horse absolutely sluiced through them in the final furlong and jockey under a gentle ride did well just to get 3rd, has 6lbs pull with Petite Jack today and even on the bare form should turn the tables on that one. 5/1 now was 6/1-13/2 last night.

[Outsider]

Won the race last year didnt it.

[Marb]

Ling 4:55 Widnes - He hinted at having ability the past of couple of seasons, though couldn't quite deliver on the promise he showed. Now returns after a wind operation and a recent break; seems to be on a very handy mark too.

[FiftyP]

I posted this in the wrong thread first. I guess there isn't a proper place for someone such as myself going all out and putting my 50c on every second thing I like the look of. However, it's late, I had it typed up and I don't want to see it wasted so I'll post it here because it seems more of a proper thread for it.

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Being as I'm new and professed my lack of ability in the greetings thread, I figured I should prove said lack of ability. Most of the reason I'm making any bet is to occupy myself, it fills an evening with looking at the cards and an another afternoon with getting excited/annoyed at the race. I know I've bet on far too many races, but it'll see me through a Saturday when I've not much else to do. And if I can keep my losing tempered by the occasional place, I'll be able to keep to my weekly budget (in other words, bookies love me.)

This is what I've got down for tomorrow, along with my own notes that I even have to work to interpret for myself. Although you should know for some of these, when I look back over the card, I either have no clue what I was saying, or the logic of the moment

Newbury - 14:05 - Marchilhac - 33/1 E/W - 2pts
Lots of equality in lower numbers. PU while in position in only race in 18 months, good shout due to earlier-career form if odds right - (I think here I was saying that as an outside chance the horse might do well with everything else being on par, while it had a look in barring circumstances in other races. I think a good third of the bet, having done a bit of reading and seeing the odds its getting, was just seeing the horse mentioned somewhere.)

Thurles - 14:20 - State of Cognac - 8/1 E/W - 2pts
Ran over further distance, has possibility with lower weight than favourite, needs the slightly slower ground I’m predicting from (the not accounted for today) rain, Improved from 2018 Season in 2019

Kelso - 14:25 - Joke Dancer - 5/1 - 2pts
Won at lower prizes, won after not raced in a while. Form says can finish strong which is a good win shout depending on odds. - Opened at 5/1, amongst others, go with gut. (I wanted to let this drift, but seeing it open just around the price I thought it'd get had me backing myself.)

Newbury - 14:40 - Idilico 12/1 E/W - 2pts
Never won a low entry race, but always close, finishes well. Has to beat one or two more proven horses but seems a shout with others poor

Newbury - 14:40 - Chaparral Prince - 10/1 E/W - 2pts
Sometimes close in lower entry races, good second in higher prize with same ground, jockey and trainer in good form (I'm betting on two horses to either place or one to win here, which might not be the wisest thing)

Newbury - 15:15 - A Little Chaos - 22/1 E/W - 2pts
Improving horse that has done well at weight if not over distance. Probably an outside shout, but has proven they can win recently (It's entirely possible I mistook this with Some Chaos in the 3pm at Kelso, and justified it after. I seem to have written this down in my notes as a take at 5/1 odds, when it started much further than that. On the other hand Some Chaos is 9/2 but I'm far too close to my budget to jump at it.)

Thurles - 15:30 - Lischlogher Lad - 5/1 - 2pts
Heavy weight, old horses, but looks like the only horse with experience and some form for the distance and conditions. Does well in chases so don’t know what it’s like on hurdles. Might be too old and too much weight. Can see an outsider winning this with so much in the air. (I had written down I'd take this at 7/1, but at 5/1 I figured I needed a few closer shots on my day's betting, just for adrenaline's worth)


Thurles - 15:30 - Glenmalure Lodge - E/W - 12/1- 2pts
Pulled up twice, always with low weights, like this race. Has run longer races and been respectable. Last race bodes well, but ground is variance


Thurles - 16:40 - Sizing Rome - 3/1 - 2pts
Did well in big price race, depends on getting around at heavy weight, looks good (I had this down as the favourite and my second pick as longer odds to take, when it went in with that favourite and this second I took this at the slightly longer, but still short odds to have something to shout at the telly.)

Kelso - 16:45 - Craig Star - 13/2 2pts
Had better previous Seasons, seems to stay well in a race, could be an each way place in a poor race, ground might suit with drying (took it to win when I saw the odds, although I probably should have hung on to see if it drifted)

Thurles - 17:15 - You Can’t Catch Me - 20/1 E/W - 2pts
EW Potential, has come outside places in races before, probably has a race in him if the trainer can show it, drier ground is a potential benefit as well. Back if odds are decent (I said I'd take this at 16/1 so when the price was 20/1 I took it. It'll probably drift but I have no nerve.)

My apologies for mangling the terminology.

[Marb]

Ling 4:55 Widnes - He hinted at having ability the past of couple of seasons, though couldn't quite deliver on the promise he showed. Now returns after a wind operation and a recent break; seems to be on a very handy mark too.

My other two tomorrow are both at Kelso. (Kelso 2:25). Saint Leo. A former Macaire horse...could be very leniently handlcapped, you get the impression he will go close sooner rather than later.

Kelso (3:35). Seemorelights - Another unexposed runner who is a course winner. He was staying on well the last day before falling. This is a more valuable prize so I reckon he's in-it to win it!

[reet hard]

Royal Birth 3.45L has beaten a number of these in his last 2 C/D runs and a 2lb rise for his latest win should make little difference around here
Poor draw, but he's a hold-up horse anyway, and the current 6/1 (b365) looks more than fair.

[FiftyP]

One last (I hope) one this morning.

Kelso - 15:00:00 - Some Chaos - 9/2
Other horses are flashy, this goes up in weight but is solid in performing and seems to finish well – Bookies showing about five horses around the same price. Blue Flight early favourite.

[viking]

3.15 Newbury
Outofthisworld almost qualifies for the long shot thread being available at 18/1 with Betvictor. Can be forgiven the run last time having slipped up early on and looks decent value on earlier form. Hopefully a winner for Noel Fehily in his final ride on terrestrial TV


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[Tanlic]

Flashjack looks something to bet on at bangor but one can only hope the jockey watched the first 2 races. The stupidity of jockeys giving horses a 20 length easy lead on this ground baffles me......Wouldn't be so bad if the jockeys in the 2nd had taken note of what happened in the first but Nope!! Duh!!!

[viking]

One last (I hope) one this morning.

Kelso - 15:00:00 - Some Chaos - 9/2
Other horses are flashy, this goes up in weight but is solid in performing and seems to finish well – Bookies showing about five horses around the same price. Blue Flight early favourite.

Nice shout



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[2017diary]

One last (I hope) one this morning.

Kelso - 15:00:00 - Some Chaos - 9/2
Other horses are flashy, this goes up in weight but is solid in performing and seems to finish well – Bookies showing about five horses around the same price. Blue Flight early favourite.

[LUKE]

Fifty P on fire.

[Outsider]

Ling 4:55 Widnes - He hinted at having ability the past of couple of seasons, though couldn't quite deliver on the promise he showed. Now returns after a wind operation and a recent break; seems to be on a very handy mark too.

Not "ride of the month" was it.

[FiftyP]

Fifty P on fire.

I was blessed by the favourite being withdrawn in the Thurles 5:15/it being R4ed, which I'd have had money on if the odds weren't so short. If it wasn't for that and my BOG I'd be down today, by about 7pts.

All that being said I'll still be breaking out the nice whiskey (which I do often) and a cigar (far less often.)

[Tiny Clanger]

Marble hope you was on your old m8 there at Exeter, Trans Express , third part of a yankee , just santemilon left

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[viking]

Marble hope you was on your old m8 there at Exeter, Trans Express , third part of a yankee , just santemilon left

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Great stuff Tiny with Saintemilion obliging for you. I managed to back Trans Express who I think has now won 5 times over C&D. He’s been a real good one to follow for me.


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[Tiny Clanger]

Santem threw it away then came back stronger, awful aftertiming on the other 3 , apols - 11/4 but 25p rule 4, 8/1 , 8/1 and santem finished at 4/1 - whenever I get these rarities it's always just a quick 15 minute scan. Ponder for hours and usually get nowt

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[Marb]

Marble hope you was on your old m8 there at Exeter, Trans Express , third part of a yankee , just santemilon left

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Nah been busy with other stuff mate. All about Aintree meeting, Grand National, etc. Then moving on.

[Tiny Clanger]

I like the Aintree festival, sure I mentioned it b4 on here but if underwhelming at chelt festival then they do well at Aintree festival - I usually have a disaster at chelts but pick up the pieces at Aintree following this simple rule

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[FiftyP]

A light afternoon, especially given Midnight Midge was withdrawn from the 16:15, the race I was most looking forward to.

Wincanton - 15:15 - Nightfly - 5/1 - 2pts
One poor, one good showing in bigger prize race. Hasn’t proven itself over 2m4f but on similar ground over 2m3f has done well. Depends on whether it gets to race it’s own race and the effect of the weight.

Wincanton - 15:45 - Findusatgorcombe - 5/2 - 2pts
Always in mix in chases, drier ground might suit despite step in weight. Another horse is tipped so potentially good odds, though doubtful.

Findusatgorcombe I wanted better odds for, but just caved at what was offered. Partly due to an empty looking afternoon, but also because the market can't be completely wrong on everything. One of my big betting problems is not taking horses at shorter odds. My evaluation goes out the window with me thinking their chances, partly due to variance, can never be as good as the short odds show. This, in a way, is me trying to overcome that a little. We'll see how it plays out.