2.30 Leicester, Night of Sin, having a maximum lay on this. Around 2.38 at the minute. The horse did hack up over 2m on good to firm but I was always of the impression it wanted soft. It then won well over 2m3f on soft and was impressive. Today over 2m4f on good to firm. I really think it will get beat. Max lay
Trying to claw back some of the losses from earlier. laying and backing in the next.
6.00 Wolves, Martineo. around 2.42 and I'm laying. Dropped from 79 to 71 and won @ 7/1 last time out, back up 2. I think this race is very tricky and at such short odds I think it's worthy of a good lay.
In the same race, lucky lodge, I've back it e.w and 7/1. I think the handicapper was harsh on this horse for awhile but starting to drop slightly in the ratings, hopefully can catch a place at least for me.
This Martineo is being backed off the boards, into 1.95 now. I've went in again with a maximum lay, I had to at that price as I can't see it winning.
If this wins, I'm out for a week or 2 to regroup. I hope it won't come to that and get's well beat.
4.10 South
4 horses dominate the market and Three Weeks is readily discarded as unlikely to have the pace for this trip,at this level.
That leaves 3 horses, all lto C/D winners:
Space Bandit Early fav, and won 5l latest, but in significantlty lower class and in a time 3 seconds slower than the other 2.
Weld Al Emerat 2nd fav. Won 0-80 1/2l, but in a reasonable time for the class.
Saint Equiano 3rd in. Won 0-95 1.25l in a fair time for the class. Carded a very similar T/S to the horse above. Worst of the draw among the prnicipals, but with only 8 rnrs and a likely good pace, oughtn't to be too much of a problem.
My money's on Saint Equiano (4/1 generally)_on grounds of class and price, but it all points to being a close contest between the 2, so I've also done the rfc with a solid chance of reaping a bonus.
Last edited by reet hard; 27th February 2019 at 11:11 AM.
Outsider (27th February 2019)
Unlucky with your Lays Irish Goat, laying at exchange prices is a very hard game, just to prove it i'll put up a few which i think have a very good chance of getting beaten, but usually goes boobs up!
1 Gorgeous General 2.30 Sthwll, layed at 2.38, think that there are 3 or 4 which have a decent chance of beating it, mainly Piazon, Astraea and Toni's a star. Gorgeous General is also racing from a higher mark than he's been alloted in future 4lb higher.
2 Point Zero 335 Sthwll, layed at 3.95, has won twice at sthwll over 5fs but btn on the 3 occasions he's ran over 6fs(albeit only narrowly on one run). The 2nd 5f win was in a seller where he was very well in at the weights but only just beat a horse rated 22lb inferior, his other win in a novice auction was against 3 yos in the main. Don't think the 6fs quite suits him as well as 5fs and don't think this slower ground will help him get home, also races from a mark of 72 a mark he hasn't been able to win from before.
3 More Salutes 8.30 Kempton, layed at 6.0 best run lto and with his trainer in good form can see why it's relatively short in this race, but even that run falls short of a fair few others in this race imo. Can find 4/5 better chances than him and quite fancy a longish priced horse as well.
Hope i'm right but we will see.
Therightroad (27th February 2019)
Sorry about that one - in a fast run race, Saint Equiano appeared to go off too quickly, too soon from his outside draw. BuggerOriginally Posted by reet hard
Therightroad (27th February 2019)
Suzi's Connoisseur (3.05L) dotted up in a lesser race over C/D 3 runs ago, then was outclassed in a hot conditions race at Wolves. had 2 runs since over the wrong trip. Now returns to Lingfield, and the OH has kindly decided to drop him to 1lb below his winning rating.
Merhoob is the obvious danger, but a cover f/c should allow a useful profit, either way.
Edit Merhoob NR (I hadn't realised)
Last edited by reet hard; 1st March 2019 at 1:48 PM.
Therightroad (2nd March 2019)
2.00 Huntingdon, Ferrobin, around 1.65. Looks a 2 horse race and I think this horse will be too good for Sammy bill. Having a decent win bet on Ferrobin.
2.10 Leopardstown, Tombstone, around 1.98. I think the horse will get back to winning ways today. Having a decent win bet on it.
Doing a win double on the above too.
2.20 Sedgefield, Arthur Mac, around 1.48. I think the price is very very skimpy. I'll be laying this today. I think Shantaluze @ around 3.9 might get the job done but just be sticking with the lay.
Good luck to anyone betting today.
2nd last bet of the day for me.
2.40 Leopardstown, The red menace, around 1.95. Hefty, hefty lay for me. I'll be shocked if it gets home in front.
Painful....very painful.
Confrontational (7.00) led all the way to win a similar class race in Ireland, but - on his first UK outing - similar tactics failed, owing to having to cross from an outside draw and being taken on for the lead by Swift Approval. Both horses filled the last 2 places, which tells its own story about the pace they went.
With the prime draw here, and no obvious pace to take him on, he looks set fair to boss this race from the off, and land a decent bet in the process. The fav, although unlucky lto, has yet to compete in a race of this class.
11/4 generally.
Newcastle 2:30 Forever Dylan. Dropped to a very fair mark and worth betting at 16/1.
I place laid him at Sedgfield looked like he blew up then ran on but couldn't get a blow in. The 25 length was an exaggeration as he was heavily eased but it's not like Micky to step a moderate horse up in class
unless he's trying to get a few more pounds off it's back.........Looks more competitive than Sedgie...place laying him again :0) but good luck
Formely Fist of Fury
16's into 12's now.
trudij (5th March 2019)
Forever Dylan We got this horse recently from Henry De Bromhead and he runs in Gemma's colours. He ran well for a long way on his stable debut at Sedgefield and we are hoping for further progress today
Trainer
Knowing they are off for their lives does help........good luck
Formely Fist of Fury
3.00 Newcastle, Beyondtemptation I'm laying this for a place around 3.1. The market is still pretty weak but I'll get on what I can.
Same race, Tim Rocco is around 2.6'ish to win the race. Had a hefty lay on that too. I've marked up many with chances apart from these 2.
Ouch!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Formely Fist of Fury
In waht looks a 3 horse race I am leaving out PN Danny Whizbang and dutching Truckin Away and Present Value........with a health warning opposing PN can damage your health
Formely Fist of Fury
c*n* sums that up
Formely Fist of Fury
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