The immediate post-race comment by the guy with the Scottish accent on the WHill radio service reckoned FB wouldn't go past CF. If that's the case (I'll need to see the replay somewhere) I won't be backing FB to win anything. Ever.
The immediate post-race comment by the guy with the Scottish accent on the WHill radio service reckoned FB wouldn't go past CF. If that's the case (I'll need to see the replay somewhere) I won't be backing FB to win anything. Ever.
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I'm not great at race reading. Let us know what you think happened when you watch the replay please mate.
William Hills and several others have put the first two today in their anti-post betting for The Grand Annual.
Last edited by Marb; 25th January 2019 at 5:08 PM.
Not sure I'd say that he wouldn't go past - he definitely took the lead - he just isn't the greatest of battlers, and would need to be upsides a similar type to ever get his head in front in this type of handicap. Think CF's rider knew this as well and kept asking to worry FB out of it. Once CF responded at all, the result was inevitable.
I would add too, that Forest Bihan has given a really consistent and improved horse this season, nearly a stone and a half in weight today.The curve of Forest Bihan form is improving just at the right time in terms of a crack at the Festival Handicap.
You could even argue, that were he to have won today, and raised in the handicap as a result; this would actually have disadvantaged him in a bigger value handicap, such as The Grand Annual, in the near future.
Last edited by Marb; 25th January 2019 at 5:36 PM.
With all due respect this is nonsense.Originally Posted by HawkWing
If you was to take about twenty pounds off Forest Bihan's back, (which is how much more weight he was carrying than Cracking Find today), he would have won cosily.
He's given a lot of weight away to a consistent and progressive horse, and they've pulled well clear of the rest.
No major harm done in terms of his handicap mark either. Roll on The Grand Annual I say.
Last edited by Marb; 25th January 2019 at 5:39 PM.
I've just watched the full replay (over at the ATR site). Forest Bihan got marginally in front of CF just after the last but I have to agree with the WHill guy and say FB didn't want it as much as the other one. I think the head carriages say it all. FB carried his head high after the last the other one kept his down and forward.
It was a very good quality race - it usually is - and confirmed two things I noted beforehand: CF is on a proper curve and FB is well handicapped.
But I'd have to say there is no way FB is improving. Note that in my preview of the race I questioned FB's honesty ("d?" in the notes column) and his best rating this season was 4lbs below his career best. Nuts Well, the other of my top three, had just come to challenge the other two at the last when he fell so I suspect FB has maybe run somewhere between this season's best and his career best. I do reckon he could match his career best against better horses when he's towed into it but would never back him again at this level or higher. He could probably scoot away from inferior opposition in a Class 3 race with a short run-in.
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Absolutely no respect in that statement.
Well its all a game of opinions!
Given the rattling pace they go in The Grand Annual, based on the recent running's I've seen, about 80-90 percent of the field never get a look in.
They get tailed off after four furlongs!
At least with Forest Bihan you know he's going to be up there, running his race. In a Grand Annual he'd be one of about 10 percent with a chance.
I'm surprised other people can't see that.
Last edited by Marb; 25th January 2019 at 5:54 PM.
On a flat track with a downhill finish. He needed to gain a length on CF at the last to stand a chance. Once he didnt, it was all over.
The only chance FB has of winning the GA is to arrive on the bridle well after the last, and would be best served staying well off the fast gallop and hope he gets a Bellvano. I cant see him outbattling anything up the hill. Aim for the Red Rum would be my advice for the connections...and even then.
A 3/1 chance in a small field, giving 20 pounds to the winner, 6 weeks before The Festival.
You guys keep believing your naked eye, that he 'didn't want to go past' etc.
I'll play the long game.
Well, its two races now in which he has arrived swinging and didnt go through with it. It wasnt just today. Both on flat tracks with long straights and short run ins. Cheltenham on the other hand. Keep playing that long game.
Will do. Just want to see him in the entries first.
His three runs prior to that weren't exactly inspiring. Well beaten 6th, 3rd and a faller. He has definitely improved since that.
Last edited by Marb; 25th January 2019 at 6:08 PM.
Marb for what its worth I've just taken a quick look and it certainly looks like he had a touch of the single farm payments up the run in. I think if you're looking towards something like the Grand Annual its a bit of a weird race in my book but to win any handicap you need to have a bit in hand of your mark to win a Festival Handicap you really need to have 10lb plus up you're sleeve and even then you're hoping somewhere along the line some dirty devil hasn't managed to sneak a Graded performer in off a mid 140's mark. I'd imagine the distance that pair have pulled clear today the handicapper might well raise FB I wouldn't be surprised to see 7 lb to the winner and 4-5lb for the runner up effectively putting Forest Bihan off 155 ish that would be a massive ask to win from that mark.
It may be the case Marb that if he was to turn up in one of those big handicaps he'd be a fair old price and the way he travels into the races if you could get 5/1 or over to place only on the day, that might be the way to play him especially if as some suggest he's not the easiest to get to put his head in front. More than one way to skin a cat mate. I don't really have a solid opinion on today's race as I've only had a quick glance but if you do make you're mind up that he's started to keep a bit for himself then playing place only is the way to go with such types.
Man who catch fly with chopstick .... accomplish anything.
Interesting points, Danny. As you know me well enough by now to know I cannot and wouldnt be daft enough to claim he was a 'certainty', in the Grand Annual. But I wouldn't be as quick to rule him out either. Time will tell. I'm not one for place only backing. I'd much rather have a good each way bet with the best possible each way terms available to me nearer the race.
Last edited by Marb; 26th January 2019 at 12:47 AM.
Morning
Expecting a big run in the 1.50 Cheltenham from
The Kings Writ
Each Way @ 8-1 [Bet 365] 1/4 BOG
"The wise man is one who knows what he does not know"
I have to say I agree with Danny's reply to this.
I don't see what his price today had to do with anything nor the amount of time before the festival and he was giving 20lbs to the winner because he's already that much better. It's not as if he was giving 20lbs to Altior.
It's clear to anyone who watches the finish that he wasn't giving 100% effort on the run-in.
The long game, if there is one, was blown yesterday. Yesterday was the plan. He'll go back up the ORs for that - unlike Modus - and won't win a handicap this season because he won't qualify for lower-class ones. They might try and find a small conditions race for him but I imagine his campaign now will be to get him back down to 150 or lower. He hasn't won a jumps race since October 2017 now.
I have as much chance of winning a Grand Annual as he has.
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Cracking Find has only been out the first three once in his last ten or so starts.
No shame in finding him too good giving him that weight.
Each to their own.
The idea Forest Bihan winning yesterday, in order to get a bigger hike in the weights, would be good for Forest Bihan's Grand Annual chance, cannot be right.
Last edited by Marb; 26th January 2019 at 9:41 AM.
Absolutely not.
But that's never been the point of the argument.
The point has been that he appeared not to be too interested in doing so. He would have beaten CF yesterday if he'd wanted to. He didn't want to. That's the point.
No-one would disagree with that and I don't think anyone has said it so I'm wondering where it came from?
Last edited by Desert Orchid; 26th January 2019 at 10:15 AM.
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